Welcome in everybody in too Fantasy Pros. This is a Fantasy Baseball podcast. It's me Joey Page, Joe Pi Zapia, and today the Welsh and I are going to talk about the ten most undervalued early to mid round starting pitchers. Because pitching has become a little bit of a Rubik's cube the last few years, and sometimes you can cheat and take the stickers off, and sometimes you can't. Welsh and I are going to try our best here to solve the puzzle that is the pitcher category in twenty
twenty four. Welsh, I know that we've talked a lot about our pitching strategy the last few years. Last year I was very much in the let's buy in bulk, let's let the top guys fade. Feels like more than ever, some of the top guys just aren't even there. It's not nearly as deep as it once was. It feels like we're gonna be buying in bulk again. And I think this group that we're talking about really encapsulates some
of those names. I think are really going to help people assemble rotations because now it's not just about having that one guy at the top in fantasy or maybe even two. It's about really having depth of that rotation because you know guys are going to miss time. You know, people aren't throwing two hundred innings anymore. Those are you know, those days are long gone. So we want to get the quality and you think some of these names on this list today can give us that.
I think what we're looking at is we're looking at primary SP twos and SP threes like under Maybe that's even the way for you guys to consume the title of this is undervalued SP twos and threes, because I think parts of the upper list of who the guys were going to talk about, they would the very first guy would be actually a great number two. If you're talking about RPP, you're talking about relative position value of that spot and SP two what do.
They actually perform at?
So I think we're gonna have the first four or five work really well as SP twos or solid undervalued SP twos, and then we get into the SP three market because yeah, there's a bunch of different ways that the pocket aces strategy. I don't want to say it's dead because it'll be someone out there.
That's like, well, well, let me tell you.
You know, fleeing and and they'll be like Gambit, They'll be like fling fling pocket ass, but it's dead.
It's dead, like nobody.
Does it anymore ready for reference, first one was on the other day where he's like Cyclops Storm and what's your name? And he turns to Patrick Stewart he goes, what's your name? Wheels.
That's a great it's a great lot x men is that's my all time thing. We need a graphics team where if I ever do that, we can just light up a card and pocket. But the whole point was for that positionally, like pocket ases are ideally it's kind of dead, but you're wanting to like live in the top probably twelve to fifteen SP and then you're gonna most likely look for at least two in that SP twenty to thirty five range. So we're gonna talk about some of those undervalued guys here.
And draft season is already upon us, folks, and we are here. Draft prep is on and fantasypros dot Com Slash Draft Kit as you cover. The draft kit is free. It's available right now, so run don't walk to fantasybros dot Com Slash Draft Kit today and start utilizing all the tools here at Fantasy Pros, and of course make sure you sink your leagues as well. Make sure you're utilizing all the tools not just for the draft, but for the end season management as well that we have
on Fantasy Pros. It is huge. It's a game changer. So sink your league for free today over Fantasy Pros. All your leagues and all your places. And remember you could set all your lineups from one spot using the Fantasy Pros app. That's pretty amazing. Let's start with the first guy on our list, and it's Blake Snell of the Well. I don't know because it is two twenty two pm on the sixth of February and he still doesn't have a team. A pretty good season for Blake Snell.
Oh man, I still have it in place.
To play, to find a home.
He sounds a lot like the guy who wants to have pocket hass. I'm just saying last year, coming off a season with two hundred and thirty four strikeouts, he did walk ninety nine guys though, so still some up and down. But this is a guy who has now too cy Young's to his resume. And then a lot of ifs in between, and I think that's kind of why you're seeing what the ADP you're seeing for Blake Snell. I imagine at some point though it's going to tick up.
Right now, the ECR has him at seventy overall, But at the same time, Welsh, I think when he does sign it, if he signed with the contender, you're gonna see this ADP change. What's your take on Blake Snell's value regardless of the landing spot.
Yeah, I think you nailed it.
He's definitely being undervalued because people are like, well, I don't know where he is, and I think a lot of people are.
Gonna end up making that case of like, well, you know.
Wherever he goes, probably not like Blake Snell is a unique character across the board, as many people have noted. In this offseason, we had this really hilarious debate that happened. It was almost an argument fight of our friends Nick Pollock and Ino Seras, where Nick was just not about that Blake Snell life and Eno was about that Blake
Snell life. And what came from a lot of this was the walk numbers are worrisome, but it's also part of his strategy and how he attacks, So it's not gonna help your whip or anything like that, but it's an upper tier strikeout. I mean, he has had six straight years of over thirty percent K percentage. He just had a two low two two two point two five ERA, two straight years of an expected ERA that was under four,
which is great. This is a more mature pitcher, and he made some big changes, specifically the change up that was something everyone was very critical about. Through it five percent of the time in twenty twenty two. This past year, it became his third most used pitch at eighteen percent.
Of the time.
And guess what, Blake Snell three of four pitches used, which are all over ten percent, had a forty six or higher percent with rate. I know a lot of people will talk specifically and like swinging strike rate, and we know the k's are up there, but I just like to point out fifty plus is elite.
You rarely see.
I think the only guy that had a higher WIF percentage on a pitch that I'm recalling off the top of my brain was Senga's ghost fork. He's got two that are over fifty and another that's at forty six. So it's high strikeout percentage. He has learned his usage and in theory with the teams that are out there, there's a lot of markets that would work well. If he did go to his hometown in Seattle. We would
love that we could manage with the Angels. I don't think it's like an inferior ballpark if he were to go there. So you chase your strikeouts. Hopefully he goes to a team that can put up some wins, but he's being un undervalued for the strikeouts that you get and for all the critical stuff about the walks to low to e erra.
We're gonna take Blake Snell M.
I don't think I'm going to be chase in the sub three e R. But I do agree also that, you know, I think that not only Blake Snell, I think has you know, figured some things out last year, maybe some more consistency going forward. He's also not the kind of guy personality wise that I think is going to press. You know, sometimes we see these guys a free agent signed big deals and they press a little bit. I don't get that sense with Blake Snell that he
is going to be worried too much about that. I think he's gonna go home, hang out, play video games, go pitch, and he's just gonna be Blake Snell no matter what dream.
I don't know if he.
Speaking of our friend Nick Pollock. I know you and I both did Pitchcon a couple weeks ago, which was great. If you haven't, you can go donate over there the Als Drive. I'm still sure they're taking money over there for that. But I did a little roast of Nick Pollock and I said, he looks like the guy who runs a New York coffee shop and if you've been there too long, sitting there doing work, he asks you
to either order another latte or leave. Don't you think that's the Nick Pollock where he's like, Hi, excuse me, Yeah, you've been here for two hours and you've only had one coffee, so I'm gonna need you to order another one.
Maybe you're calling him a hipster. I think it's what you're doing.
I love you, Nick. I can't wait to have you back on the show, buddy. All right, let's get to Nick always comes on.
I'm sure he's excited to come back.
Yaf thrilled. I'm excited for our next guy. He is Zach Efflin. Look at that transition. Always pay attention, folks do whenever the Rays get a reclamation project. I mean, I don't know, EVE been doing this for like a decade now, and it's always the same thing. So e Flyn's a guy with a four ERA in his career. All of a sudden, what happens. He goes to Tampa,
that era gets knocked down by half a run. He has an incredible run of one hundred and eighty six strikeouts, one hundred and seventy seven eights, win sixteen games, pitches in a good ballpark. He had the whip of one point zero two. I mean the x FIP was three point one two. So it's not fluky stuff here we're talking about. We're talking about a guy who really made some great strides, and right now in the ECR Efflyn is still just barely outside of the top twenty pitchers.
And to me, that makes him a value.
It does make him a value.
And one of the wild things have been projections in general. I might be screwing this number up, But guess what, you guys can go and double check it out. If you go over to fangraphs, you can check out via their different projections the Auction Calculator and I believe Zach Effln via the BAT, which is Derek Carty's projections, he's like the twelfth best dollar return of any single picture, so essentially lining him.
Up as the twelfth.
I believe ATC has him between eleven and thirteen. Regardless, he's projecting out as a top fifteen pitcher in every single projection. By the way, ATC was voted the best who we had Ariolan go check out the projections episode. He was voted the most accurate system of an aggregate or of any Derek Carty was the best singular non aggregated system, so I am referencing both the two best on the market.
If you look at projections, they've got him.
BAT has him at round eight and a half k per nine under two walks per nine, but not projecting a big jump in innings, which is interesting because he just put up one hundred and seventy seven but really great K minus walk percentage three percent walk rate last year twenty six and a half strikeout rate. He overperformed his expected era, so he had a three and a half the ra the expected was three and as you mentioned.
The Rays just do great things with people.
They like to add cutters, and that actually might kind of open up the ballgame even more if the usage goes up. He ended up using that more this past year at twenty six percent. His curve ball was the big strikeout option. But this guy will throw five or six pitches. They're gonna manage the innings properly. Great defense behind him, and like you said, the Rays work magic. Every projections love him. He's a safe option. Guess what
I like a lot this year. I like, even though we just talked about Blakes now, I like low walk guys Logan Web, George Kurbier, and Zach Eflin because if you have one minor change and you go from a low like let's just say, I know people want K percentage or K per nine, but let's just go with K percentage kate per nine. If you have like an eight and a half strikeouts per nine innings and you're super low walk, if you jump over nine, you make
one big adjustment. You might go from being a solid pitcher to an elite pitcher, right because of Ratio's innings wins, strikeouts. So I love guys like that, and that's who eflyn is and he good day.
That's good pitching. Good picion is not putting guys on base, not trying to work out of jams, especially if you don't have the dominant stuff quote unquote for strikeouts. You know, if you can limit that, like the you know, the Logan Webs of the world and some of these other guys, you are going to put yourself in a better position to win. If you are a tough pitcher to hit to begin with, and you can limit your walks, you're gonna have success in the big league level if you
have all the other intangible things there. Before we get to the next guy too, don't forget it's not just time to start mock drafting. It's time to really start getting your leagues together. And fan Tracks is the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft and best ball leagues. Create or join a Fantasy Baseball Commissioner league and invite your friends, invite your enemies, and dominate your draft this season.
Fan tracks Free MLB League Manager is the most custos well, easy to use, and feature rich platform in the industry. If there's anything lacking in your current fantasy league manager, fan Tracks likely has it, so go deep with the Ultimate Keeper Dynasty league options there, create a simple redraft league, or even customize a basketball league up to two thousand teams coming from another service, No problem. Fan Track can import your current leagues and customize them as needed. In
fantasy sports doesn't sleep, neither does fan Tracks. They're up all night, They're all over the caffeine. They've got seasons running three hundred and sixty five days a year. Many have already renewed, scheduled their drafts, continued trading of players, draft picks, et cetera. It's always running all the time, not like some other places. So there's a reason why fantracks is the choice of fantasy players everywhere. So make it the permanent home for all of your fantasy leagues.
Sign up for free today and you can be entered into the fan Tracks Game day experience, where fan Tracks will send you and your league mates on an MLB game trip of your choice. Simply go to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros to sign up today. That's fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros fan Tracks, the home of fantasy sports. Joe Ryan is going to have a home on a lot of my fantasy teams. I know last year was kind of a tale of two halves. The first half a three point seven zero ERA over his
first eighteen starts. The guy was fantastic. I know, I had him in a bunch of spots. I was loving life. Strikeout rate was high over ten point four k's per nine. Then the second half came an ERA balloon to six. We know we missed some time there with an injury, only fifty four innings in the second half too. Now, the strikeout rate was still high with that whip balloon to one point four to a two. So Joe Ryan bounced back, Candidate Welsh, I say yes, what say you? Yeah?
I mean bounce back might even not be the term, Like he already kind of bounced in. He's's going to be more jibbli bounces that are coming. Last year he ended up getting rid of that change up and no longer being like a five to six type of pitcher. Four pitches he honed in on three of them he threw double digit percentage of the time. The three that he threw double digits or more. They all had an
increase in with percentage. And what's the one He lowered his slider, which just dropped a little bit being uneffective. That was actually the pitch he threw the second most, So he incorporated a sweeper. The split finger was a big change. It almost doubled in strikeout percentage. He was elite almost top ten percent a league in strikeout rate twenty nine point three. That's a big k percentage. Low
walks again five point one. He overperformed his expected ERA by a full run, so that means he had a four and a half ERA, which is stinky, but an expected three point five three, which would have been second best of his career. I love what the Twins have just in general been doing. He found a way to
cover every point of the zone. I think he needs to get that sweeper a little bit out more, because if you go and look at his zone chart, fastballs up top, split fingers on the bottom, the main slider is over on this kind of inside corner and the sweeper wasn't hitting enough outside. So I think that's like maybe an easy fix to being even more effective for a guy that's already massively high on strikeouts, and he's not a burner. He's actually similar to who the hell
were we just talking about. Let's say Eflin, Yeah, e Flyn. E Flyn throws around ninety two. That's how Joe Ryan is. But it's command. It's being able to pinpoint those pitches with not having any rough walks.
Five percent walk rate.
I love Joe Ryan. Joe Ryan is an example of the player that has the low walks with great probably one of the best strikeout numbers besides Blake Stell on this list. The only problem was the era overperformed what it should have done. So that's a maybe a key tell that there might be a lot of improvement this year. And where he's going, what did we say, It's like around twenty something of sps or twenty fives.
Right now on the consensus looking at Joe Ryan, he is twenty fourth starting pitcher right now ranked, So legit, this is the last strikeout exactly. I think he's closer to fifteen than he is to twenty five, and right now you're getting him closer to twenty five. So this might be the last time you get that. Because if let's say he was hurt for the whole second half Welsh. He's a top twenty pitcher. Right. Let's say if he didn't have those bad eleven starts that really dragged everything
down a little bit, absence makes the Hartcrow fonder. You and I both know we'd be looking at saying, oh, well, you know he's healthy, everything's fine. You know what, forget it, let's just jump back in. So I'm not gonna let it bother me too much. I think this is the last time you get a discount like that on Joe Ryan. The next guy on our list, The fourth guy we're going to talk about here is Uri Perez of the
Miami Marlins. Perez last year dominated the minor leagues, then came up into the big league level and certainly made his presence known. Ninety one innings, he was only five and six, but he did have one hundred and eight strikeouts and a three one five ERA in a one point one to three whip. Now, some of the secondary deeper numbers there will suggest that the ERA should have been a little higher. That's fair. It's a young pitcher.
Innings will be a question, but upside is enormous. I think the Marlins team we all agree is going to be, you know, another work in progress, even though they overachieved last year. Do you think that Uri Perez is a little too much hype or do you think he is one of these guys that's still technically undervalued despite having never pitched a full season in the big leagues yet.
Yeah, I still think undervalued is the way to look at it.
Now.
The worry or the reason you can make the argument on the other side is he's still young. You know, they might say how much are they going to limit innings? He's only projected, and again, like I guess you don't want to cherry pick projections, but there's also things that
I'm I'm not sure projections do super well. I'm not sure I would pinpoint innings pitched as something that I'm gonna like, what is their marker off of just maybe baseline percentages Because they're projecting him around one to twenty two.
They maintained him pretty well last year. I think he legit gets to one.
I don't know why he couldn't get to one fifty unless they had really big injury warriors, which really don't exist out there. Projections got him over ten k per nine, which is elite I think they have a hard time projecting overall wins. But you're looking at one of the
bigger strikeout guys in the league. It was almost top ten percent out of overall K percentage twenty eight point nine with percentage top seven percent in the league, good chase rate, kIPS low batting average, and is a fireball fastball guy that can throw at really any point in the zone average almost ninety eight, was ninety seven and a half, but huge secondary pitches. He doesn't get the strikeouts off the fastball, gets off the slider in the curveball.
And as we know, this organization develops change ups phenomenally with an offseason, maybe working with Sandy Sandy and they got anything else to do, Tommy John, you get a forty six percent with rate on that change up last year.
I wouldn't be.
Shocked to see it jump up. This is another pitcher three of his four pitches forty six or higher with percentage and has less of a walk issue than you have with like a Blake Snell. So I think the only thing that holds people back are the innings projection. I'm just not going to let that hurt me. Maybe it could hurt a little bit in head to head roto. I'm still golden, but I'm less worried than everybody else is.
If the Marlins are winning some games, He's going to keep going and he easily can put up top twenty SP numbers this year.
The next guy on our list last year was a darling in the Fantasy Baseball analyst community, but he got off to a very rough start. In fact, in April he had an ERA above six. After that it was really smooth sailing for Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. Now Bradish finished the season very strong, one hundred and sixty eight total innings, same number of strikeouts. They are just forty four walks, a terrific kya walk ratio two point eight three ERA one point zero four whips. So Bradish
is in the grid spot here now. And now that Corbyn Burns, who you know, we could talk about that real briefly too. I mean, you're getting a real number one at the front of that rotation. Takes a lot of pressure off Bradish, off Grays and Rodriguez. Now they could just let Corbyn Burns be the ace and just continue to do their thing. But Bradish, I know a lot of people were panicking last year in April. Once he got right, my god, was he good? Yeah?
People you got like massive value if people were cutting him, and there a lot of people did.
They freaked out, they cut they trade, it was it was bad. And then rightfully sat with six era, people are gonna start to panic. No offense and you can.
Also worry like, oh bullpen without Felix, it's a little bit worse. But they did bring in kimberl Cano is going to be put back into that non full on leverage situation.
So I still think that's good.
Less pressure with Corbyn burns there. This was a solid strikeout guy, decently low walks. Still, even though he overperformed his expected era, he had a sub three era, it was still into the like mid threes. And what he did was he just made a concerted effort as a lot of teams should do as you evaluate pitches the previous year. The pitchy through the most was a fastball. It had like a seventeen percent withft rate. Fastballs usually don't have really good with rates on it. And then
he was solid on sliders and curveballs. And by the way, with rates are not just like swinging strikes, but also just people burning through pitches.
So what did he do this past year. He made the top pitch be.
The slider, and we've actually seen players find a benefit to this. Hunter Green kind of revamped his career by being able to throw a slider as much or more than the fastball, and that's what Bradish ended up doing. So he threw over thirty percent of the time a slider that upticked his WIF percent should a thirty six and a half percent with rate, which was higher than
the year before. And then he used the fastball and the sinker to set everything else up and then still drop a curveball in that also had a thirty five percent with rate, which was an way big improvement from the year prior. So he implements ground balls, he doesn't walk a ton, gets good strike strikes overall, gets strikeouts. You've got more support in the staff, and he got a great young team that's going to.
Help the defensively.
All the things work great, but he's a boring name that people are like, I don't know about Bradish. That's why he's undervalued because he's not being given the dues for I think.
Maybe weird, maybe just takes people to longer to get on board with the Orioles because they've been so so much of a non participant in the last ten years, really so.
But they've had great development, that's the thing that well.
They have now, but on the past, I mean, I think it's hard to break the cycle of the Dylan Bundies and the Jake Arietas and the Kevin Gosman's of all these people back in the past that you had that you didn't develop. And now people are a little skittish, and I get it, but you shouldn't be when it comes to something.
He gave Orioles fans absolute anxiety by bringing up his names.
Just sorry if they're like, oh god, well, I mean, you know, hey, but see, it's all true. I mean, he was the number one pitching prospect once upon a time. I'm old enough to remember that. I'm also old enough to remember when I was telling everybody last year to draft Joe Musgrove. Regardless of the fact that he dropped a weight on his toe. Nobody cares, like he's gonna be fine, right, and he was. He only missed like two starts in April, Like who cares? That was his
falling draft stock last year was absurd. Now I will say this, I am a little bit concerned about going into this year because now when you start throwing in shoulder issues. I understand they said we expect him to be ready for open the season. Everything's fine, but I've heard that noise before. Musgrove when he was back was Musgrove ninety seven things, ninety seven k's just twenty one walks, three point zero five vra a one point one four whip.
Now the Padres have a little less firepower without Wan Soto around, But Musgrove, to me, is one of these guys. I am on the fence. I haven't made my final decision on how I feel yet. I think it really comes to roster construction, which, by the way, you should practice your roster construction by running drafts and running all the draft simulations over at fantasypros dot com slash mock and you can do ten mocks in a half hour, like the simulator runs so fast. So again, fancypros dot
Com slash mock. So use draft Wizard to see what kind of pitching staff you're gonna put together. But Welsh, what do you think here about Joe Musgrove.
I am not on the fence, Okay, I am all in. All in, there's no build I need to think about with Joe Musgrove. So we're in this teary you don't really want. Musgrove is like your SP two, But boy, I think he is an insane advantage of an SP three if you can do it. I mean, there's only so many and so you know you can have this argument of like hit.
Their twenty ninth pitcher off like an ECR or maybe going off the board like I'm rooking right now on fancy ros dot com slash MLB rankings, you could see the pictures and where their rank right now in the ECR musk Groves at twenty nine. He's ahead of Verlander and Biby and he's behind Justin Steele and Bradish. That feels about right to me.
Yeah, And my point is is like he could be at SP two, but from an RPV standpoint, this is the SP three of SP three. Is because the other thing you mentioned, like, yeah, there's maybe worries here or there, but I mean he improved his fastball last year, started throwing a change up more three of five pitches over thirty percent with rate he still commands the ball. I mean, there's a big key to a lot of these undervalued pitchers,
mostly outside of Snell. There's not big walks. Five percent walk rate almost twenty five percent K percentage and expected era that's with his era, So that just shows stability. I'm in for all of it. And Shilt had said that he's gonna have zero restrictions. He is good to go. So there's some injury risk. I think that might be floating around for some people. But when Musgrove is on,
he could be a top fifteen pitcher. So this is a guy when you want to really focus on this undervalued stuff, this is a guy that represents all of it.
There's a young.
Players like Yuri Perez where if the innings go up high ks, that's all great. But Muskrove has done this before.
He has been this before.
He was in the lead, still on the betting board for quite some time two years ago. Like I mean, he was at the very top of that board for weeks, if not months, if memories served. So you're right, if you're going to bet on somebody, this is a guy to bet on because you know what the upside is and I think you nailed it. You're so smart, You're not just a pretty face. Welsh is a three. I love it as a two. It makes me a little,
a little skittish, little bit a little worried. Number seven on our list today of some of the mid round pitching values we've got, this guy is hotter than Hansel right now. Cole Ragan's of the Kansas City Royals. The Royals, by the way, who just locked up Bobby Wit to a very long term contract. Good for him, nothing like two hundred and eighty eight million dollars guaranteed to make
you feel warm and fuzzy inside. But Ragans is a player that obviously last year, really you know, it was one of the big pickups down the stretch, the fastballs at ninety six. It's the change up though that has everybody talking a thirty five point six fifth percentage on that. So he is a very popular trendy pick and he made your list, so you're buying into the trend. Well.
I think the big thing to talk about too, when you're talking about like undervalued, is like who are the people that everybody gets excited about and what does that value end up being Trig Scouble is an example of a player that was wildly great coming off of the injury into short sample size last year and he's going off like sp ten. Reagan's is a guy that absolutely popped when he went to the Royals in the tune of a four and a half mile prower increase on
his fastball. He was throwing at ninety two the year before, went up to forty here and I think it was the uptick in the slider. Them letting him throw the slider because I think that was the issue with the Rangers.
They weren't.
That ended up being the highest fifth percentage of any pitch he ended up throwing. So he became this new pitcher with the Royals. Now what's his biggest fault? It's walks. You know, that is a different with him in Trigue Scougle, this is a guy that did walk guys over ten percent of the time, but he was a completely different pitcher as a starter era expected era all plays in
the fastball looks dominant. He's got four great pitches five actually really that are all throwing a double digit percentage of the time. But you're on a not super exciting team.
Why we do.
This is when you're looking for high, high strikeout guys with big potential. I'm actually surprise Reagans isn't higher on this list. So I think from this perspective, when Reagans is an SP three, he is an undervalue because of what he could potentially. He could blow up in your face with the walks and royals, could stink and all those things that happen. But with all of the chances we've got to take, this is great atn SP three.
Usually we have to pay for these guys's SP two.
So you want to talk about undervalue, take your risk shots. Colt Reagan's definitely fits that mold.
Next is one of our favorite guys from leading off last year, Merle Merril Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks Welsh career high in kper nine percentage back to back years now with e ra's sub three five whips under one point two years in a row here, So it seems like Kelly's been a guy these last two seasons that has really settled into a groove here and probably continues to be one of these guys that does get overlooked. I love when you put him on the list because
to me, he is like the quintessential undervalue guy. I can't remember how many times last year we're like, yeah, Meryl's gonna go out there and he's gonna, you know, put up a quality start and he's gonna keep you in the game. And you know in the second half two for the Diamond Batch when they made that run into the playoffs there, I mean, he was just steady Eddie. And I think that's something that fantasy rotations might need more than ever. And I love that you put him on the list today.
I mean, you nailed exactly where we're going. So check this out. I think this is interesting. Here's a projection.
Check this out, everybody.
This picture for seven projected innings eight point seven k per nine, a half decent two point six y five walk per nine, and essentially.
A four ERA. That's the first pitcher.
The next pitcher, Meryl Kelly one hundred and sixty innings projected for higher eight point five to six k p nine, essentially the same little bit of a higher walk rate three three nine, and his era projected much higher than what he's performed over the last two years. It's four four seven projected. Yet he's had two straight years of having a three and a half. That first pitcher was Justin Verlander, and a lot of people still want to
get into the Justin Verlander business. You just said it before, and that's the big takeaway I.
Would do with this. Meryl's just undervalue. He's just an undervalued guy.
He is on a Diamondbacks team that scores tons of runs, even though I guess they were kind of a weirdly negative run to runs given up last year. But you still have this team that is gonna run score runs, multiple gold Glovers on it. He's gonna pitch more innings than projected. He's got a good shot to walk into all of those wins. He gets some strikeouts, doesn't walk a bunch of people. He is just a good, baseline stabilizing sp that annually just gets overlooked because he's older,
he's kind of boring, he doesn't pop anywhere else. But these are the type of guys that round out You know what, you go get Cole Reagan's as your SP three, balance him out at SP four with a Merril Kelly. That makes him not only undervalued for where you draft him, but it can actually make him be more undervalued by what he can stabilize with the rest of your rotation. So yes, he doesn't pop any specific place. But like I said, he's going to get more win opportunities than a lot.
Of other guys.
He's got a great defense behind him. He's got a fast, speedy offense led by Forb and Carroll Katel Marte that are going to support him. There's a lot to like about Merril Kelly, but he keeps.
What did you say, it was like sp It's like.
Forty, yeah, something like that. That's kind of ridiculous when you say thirty nine is where he is right now. So he's two spots ahead of the next guy. And the word stable is not one that you would use to describe Carlos Rodon. I don't think that's a good word in the vocabulary there. Most of last year he only turned in sixty four innings total and a six eight
five ERA along with it. If you remember when he did eventually pitch, I remember two starts, specifically in September one, where he had ten strikeouts and seven innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates there and things went very well, and then two starts later, his final start of the year gave up eight earned runs and zero zero outs in that zero So that's a tough one for me. Carls Rodan, I get it. I understand it's like, hey, once you get out of the top forty, you're throwing darts. But
to me, forty one is very hot. I understand. A couple of years ago the guy you know turned in back to back really good seasons. There, I get it, but he has been such an enigma for so long. Mitch Keller's going after him, Michael King's going after him. I'd rather make investments in those guys. But why is Rodon a guy that you think people should pay attention to in drafts?
Well, I think the main thing is just where the return can get us too, and it's risky. But let's go back to just for a second. We're going to go back to the bat and we're gonna look at actually we're on steamer rope, but well, you know, we'll do steamer here for a second, because this will really
make my point home. Steamer projections using the auction calculator puts Carlos Redon out at a almost twenty dollars value the fourteenth sp higher than logan web, higher than Corbyn burns higher than Max Freed.
Now I'll just do it live on here. What do you want ATC or the bat?
Give me, give me whatever floats your boat. I'm guy, okay, I like everyone. You're just like, yeah, you know how much I love projections anyway, such a yeah.
Well, I mean that is definitely part of the conversation here. So when you get a little bit more granular, we're pushing back a little bit. Redon now On ATC is a seven dollars projection, and I think what some of the worries are is where the performance was last year. But a fully healthy Carlos Redon. So you can see there's really wide variance here. But he did not have a decrease in the.
Fastball, which is a positive.
His slider was literally the same eighty five point four high wift rate.
It's health. It's health with him, there.
Has always been hene two years, it's been health.
Okay, But sometimes we have to consider that undervalued players can also have massive risk.
Sure not just if he's undervalued enough. I guess that's my part, okay, But what was the SP's not? He's right now over on Fantasy pros of the ECR he is the forty first pitcher and the next guy we're gonna talk about is at forty two, and I'm gonna take that next guy every single time and twice on Sunday.
And that might be the case. Radon is motivated, His pitches are still in line. It is the health that's always in question. Like I mentioned, you've got really great run support that is going to be behind him with Won Soto and Aaron Judge. Wins might be there. The strikeouts should end up being there. But the bad performance
showed its face early on last year. But prior to this crappy little run he had in twenty twenty three, he had had two straight years of a thirty three or higher percent walk percentage and expected ERA in the two two six's walks that were two to three percent lower than it was last year. So this could just blow up and he's done and he's completely done. But you know you got a guy that is finally healthy, motivated Yankee support. Anything outside the top thirty, I think
you can take shots. Carlos Redon win, good and healthy is the top twenty sp that's the major question. So why is he undervalued because of where that return can go similar to Joe Musgrove. Why is he ranked where he is? Massive injury risk, way more of a risk, by the way than Joe Musgrove. So I want Joe Musgrove. And every single time I've taken Radon all over the place, because where can you find thirty plus thirty percent k percentage pitchers out there?
Almost thirty plus starts And I was gonna have to come over and reach it.
Nat starts, but thirty percentage or more thirty plus you can't, and you don't. You don't find that anywhere outside the top thirty sps or it's very minimal.
Radon you can, Yeah, just looking through the games pitched Carlos Rodan.
Right now, you're gonna be mean.
Now I'm not gonna be mean. I'm in twenty twenty two. He made thirty one starts. It is great. He was brilliant a year before in twenty twenty one. I sat on this show here and he had a really good spring, and I kept telling everybody, Hey, it costs you nothing to draft Carlos Rodan, and he returned a great season, one hundred and eighty five strikeouts in one hundred and thirty two winnings. But even that great season was miss time. He did miss more than half a dozen starts. So
that's my thing. I just I like Rodan's not enough a discount for me and the.
Guy thintyning one hundred and forty innings from him, based on who he's been in the past, will return plus some.
In the season long roto Yes, I play in more head to head formats. So the head to head, when you're missing that guy for a month, it kicks you right in the rear end.
Are you missing in the playoffs that's the.
Or even worse down the stretch, or or maybe even worse than that, giving up eight earned runs without getting it out in your last start of the season, that would be u That would be poor. Anyway, maybe I teased it before. Who's the guy I'm gonna take every time over Carlsordan. It's another Minnesota twin. It's Bailey Ober. I wrote about him in the Black Book. I did all the picture profiles. Go check it out on Amazon
right now. It's out there right now. Welsh and myself, Kelly Kirby, all of your favorite people contributing this year. But look, my big takeaway with Ober was the five to one strikeout to walk rate. I mean, the guy was just brilliant. One hundred and forty four innings last year. He was tough to square up. He only had seven point eight hits per nine. He had nine point one k per nine, a one point eight walk per nine. The guy was awesome. The three four to three era
was there. Now the FIP was a little higher at three point nine to six. But again, you know, I think this is still a picture who you haven't seen the best out of yet, and that's what makes me excited for Bailey Ober. And he made the list that you put together, so you must be excited too.
Yeah, I mean I think I slept a little early, like in the early like November ish range. I do a lot of focus. By the way, my stuff in the Black Book is all infield and then a lot of strategy stuff, so outfielders starting pitchers end up coming to me a little bit later as I continue to
do my work. But Bailey Over is just one of those guys that pops, especially like early NFBC drafts, he started to see him go really good with solid wifth percentages where it shows like twenty seven, twenty nine, thirty two on his most used pitches. He's low velocity ninety one, but it's built on command. Three straight years of walk percentage that was top ten percent in the league. And an interesting thing though, the strikeout numbers twenty five percent
K percentage don't look insane. The chase rate, so I just mentioned the with rate was twenty eight point seven, which was like top thirty percent of the league. His chase rate of guys chasing on him thirty three point five, which was top nine percentile in the league. So he's got guys just flying all over and you do that by pitching to solid command, not walking a lot of guys three and a half ra We've seen the Twins
do really good stuff on just overall pitching development. I'm here for it, and I'm here for you know, he did a slight alteration this year of throwing his change up over his slider, and I think that made his slider maybe even a little bit more effective. So I'm here for Bailey over. I love these guys with that low walk, solid innings, get your wins.
I love these type of guys. And he is three ninety nine.
Yeah, that's a good price. Last time I checked. So some great names on the list here that Welsh has put together. Again, we agree on most of them, but we like to hear from you. Who do you agree with? Who are you in on? You like Bailey Ober, you think Carlos Rodon is just the right price? I want to hear from you, guys. Drop your comments below in the YouTube channel if you haven't already, subscribe to Fantasy pros MLB because it's the best baseball YouTube channel on
the planet right now. Plus we're gonna be every single day when the season starts as always with leading off with Welsh myself and all the Peanuts and the Cracker Jacks and joining us every single day live. You can live, join us, ask us questions, have some fun with us. We talk fantasy, we talk betting, we talk baseball, we talk everything. Maybe some X Men stuff will be in
there too. You just never know with us. But this is a great list and also here on the channel when you subscribe and drop your comments below and ring the bell for notifications too, because we've got the short form content also the top ten lists, so many fun things, big guests. We just had Ariel Conan, We have Lad Seddler, onto the best and brightest minds of the fantasy baseball community and us we're here too, so again we want to hear from you. Drop your comments on the YouTube channel,
subscribe to Fantasy Bros MLB. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Ah nice throwing the card. Well done.