Risky business. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey b Joe Pisapia with me today is the Welsh who just turned his hat from backwards and forwards, because one of our friends who we work with here Fantasy Pros, always says, you want the bill your hat facing the direction you want to go in life. That's forward, that's right, that's your UK Winn. That's a shout out
to you. And today's show is about the ten risky picks early on that we are just not feeling necessarily or maybe we are and we like the risk. We'll tell you what those names are and what that risk might entail for you and your Fantasy Baseball futures of twenty twenty three. We're also going to talk about some early buzz. Our man the Welsh, is out there in the trenches of spring training giving us some of the
early buzz. But we also seen in some of the ADPs some guys starting to rise already with some news and some different situations unfolding early in camps. So we're going to talk about the early spring risers. And those that might potentially sink or swim your fantasy team. Before we get into all of them, don't forget everybody. Fantasypros dot com slash draft Wizard. That's the place to run your mock drafts. Get your mock draft on. Start preparing today.
It's free, it's free, it's fantastic, it's educational, it's it's the what you need. It's what you need at the end of the day to make sure you go and get all your draft situations proper for all your leagues. Again, download the app its spectacu or go to fantasypros dot com slash draft Wizard. Run them. You can run one hundred mock drafts all weekend. Whatever you want to do to get prepared, So make sure you start that Welsh. Let's start with some of the names here on the
risky picks. Again, risk is defined as you know, typically a player that may or may not be worth the ADP. Now, some risk we like because we know what the upside is. Some risk we don't. So I want to know what this first guy, what do you think about number one on your list? Is this a risky player that you are into for twenty twenty three or is the risk just too much.
I'm going to be brutally on it that I go back and forth pretty much every day on this, and the player that I think is literally the riskiest player is Fernando Tatis Junior. When you're talking about this.
He's built for this.
Why Because he's suspended for the first month it's about April twentieth, he's eligible to come back. He also is coming off of two shoulder surgeries and he's really kind of looked like he's been injury prone. Third, obviously, there is the other substance component of why he was suspended that we can question, like what role did that ultimately take in it? The last thing that gets on it as far as the negative goes. Take all of those things in a bundle and look at the cost you
do not get him past the twentieth pick. You are paying full price for a player coming off of shoulder surgery, suspension for a PD or whatever you know, you want to call it ring ringworm medication, and you're taking all of that into consideration, and you're paying a top twenty overall pick. The problem is, in two thousand and twenty one, there wasn't many better fantasy players forty two homers, twenty five stolen bases, and projections in general can't come off
of that because of the player that he is. His batting average was great. Bat X has him at two point eighty four, which by the way, is the highest of any projection system. And I want you to understand this first off, the bad X was so critical of Fernando Tatist as a rookie. The bad X also, any of these projections are meant to be lower. You don't see that from this projection system. This is Derek Carties. It was voted as the number one singular projection system
atc is like an aggregate. They were the most accurate this year, voted by I believe it was Fantasy pros and Derek Carties was like the second or the most individual one. To see Derek have Fernando Tatis junior system as the number one guy. That is eye opening. So if you get thirty five homers, you get twenty stolen bases, you almost get ninety ninety with a two eighty four batting average. Guess what, You're golden even if it's one hundred and twenty games. But you have all of those
other things that are staring at you. Lastly, if you consider him a shortstop, it's a deep position in baseball. Luckily, he's going to qualified outfield. Looks like he's gonna play right field. That's what I saw him playing in one of the instructional games before spring training started. So you probably end up actually drafting him as an outfielder. But Joe, I don't know how you quantify any other player as
being as risky as Fernando Tatis Junior. It's the biggest risk reward I think in fantasy this year.
Yeah, but probably the biggest reward for the risk. And I think at the end of the day, for me, Tatis is worth that. It's funny looking at him on Fantasy pros next to his name, it gives the little abbreviation s US because he's suspended. But you know, my daughters like to use the word sus. You know, that's what a teenager i'd say, And he is a little sus. He's in terms of personality, he's sus in terms of health. At times, there's a lot of suss around Fernando Tattis Junior.
But well, the upside is just so much, you know me, it's like I'm ricky, Bobby like I want to be first, or Las like I'll go for it all. You know, if you're gonna give him to me in the second if you're giving him to me in the second round, which is where he's going, he is a top five potential talent that's not going to happen again next year if he has the year that he has, So to me, it's the perfect opportunity to go all in. And I agree, like, if Bobby Wit is there, you don't need to take
that risk. But once Bobby wits off the board, maybe Pete A. Lowns is off the board, Trouts off the board. You're looking at the guys that you feel good about, that you know they are, and then there's a guy that could change the whole dynamic of your league, and Tatis is that guy. So yeah, he's risky, but I think that's a risk that I'm willing to take. Starling Marte is the guy I want to talk about with you, because that's a guy that again I love the player,
love the power speed combination. The guy himself another guy too, not a stranger to Pedis has mentioned in the past as well, kind of like Tattis, but he's already kind of coming off that groin issue. They're working him very slowly. He's a little behind in camp too. That worries me at another year older, worries me. Starling Marte is a fan fantastic player. He is right now going as the seventy first player off the board, and that's still a
pretty big investment where you worry about the health. You're worrying about are you going to get one hundred and forty games out of this guy? And that's a tall order. I just don't know if that's the case. If you look, the last time you played one hundred and forty games was twenty eighteen, one forty five. Last two years he played one twenty one eighteen. He's not a player that's just been on the field very much. So in a tough sell, it's a great lineup, it's a good situation.
At his peak, he is a twenty twenty kind of threat, and there's not a lot of those guys floating around, So I understand the risk. It's a little bit cheaper than the guys were talking about the start here Fernando Tattis, But is Marte too risky for you, he is right on the border. For me, I think it depends on the If it's a shallow league, a more app to take that risk. But in a deeper league, I think I pass on him for something a little bit less risky. I guess yeah.
I mean I was gonna mention this with Tatis, like it's worth the risk, and you slam on it in the second round. But the problem is, like in a fifteen team Roto's, it's a little bit tough for the stomach where you're gonna have to take him in the mid second round. A guy like Marte, even in a little bit of a deeper league, he's still coming at a cheaper cost. I'm worried about him. Athleticism declines as
ages get older. You've seen games played have decreased. If you don't consider the COVID year four straight years, I mean it has gotten less forced since twenty eighteen one forty five one eighteen. In that same period of time, his strike up percentage has risen from sixteen percent in twenty nineteen all the way up to nineteen point two percent for four straight years. That's not good. Those are
not good warning signs. Sixteen eighteen was solid last year, but we're getting into this place where we're like, oh, well, if Marte could play one forty, he's not. He doesn't, and he's coming into the season injured. That should be one of the biggest warning signs I think for a lot of these players. But I do think where he's going it's not it's not out of the it's not crazy. It's not out of crazy.
But you know what, I look ten picks later, Corbyn Carrol and Brian Reynolds are on the board.
Okay, but where are you saying he's going right now?
He's going at seventy overall, there's those guys going at eighty two and eighty three. I'm just saying that's the consensus right now.
Yeah, but like with the injury stuff that has kind of surfaced over the last.
Week, or that might change in the next week or so, right.
That if he's ninety ninety five, he I think he's okay. But you are taking a player with diminishing skill set declining as his age goes, and it literally is on paper in front of us. So like I'm telling you both stories, like I'm cool to take him in the nineties because stolen bases if you ignored it. I have a draft in tout right now where I really have ignored stolen bases, and that's not great, But I've just had such phenomenal hitters fall to me across the board.
Sure that you might have to make it a little bit more of a priority there, but that's not necessarily the spot where you're going to want to jump in and taking, you know, declining at the the declining athleticism of an outfielder just because you're doing it on stolen bases. But it is a Mets, big offensive Mets team. I think you have to ask yourself like you were about to do with like Corman Care, like what are the players that are around him?
I think you can make causes later. Look, I'm looking the average ADPs at seventy one, and he's it's a seventies too high in NFBC too. Right now, he's at seventy eight in NFBC, so I mean a little bit closer to some of the other But like you look at some of the other spots, like CBS is all the way up at sixty four. Let's go to the next guy on your list of risky picks, who is it.
I've got Dylan Ceese, who I feel like I've talked about. I'm trying to mix Cease up here, but Dylan Ceze has just got Volatiley. The strikeouts are phenomenal. We love the strikeouts, but the walk rate is not. And I like having the backdrop of being able to to be able to like I know, I always have two hundred plus strikeouts. I think that makes these guys easier to stomach. But you had a huge ERA and xtip difference to
to era a three to five x tip. I really do expect his ERA to jump back up into If it's three fives. I'm not saying it's not good, but where you're taking him, especially this range of picture, I'd almost put these pitcher names around here. I don't really want to jump and invest on a guy that if you're paying for last year's era, that's not going to happen. He's not going to have an under three ERA. He may have the strikeouts in there, but I'm a little
bit worried overall about this rotation. The bounce back for me is Lucas Gielito. When you're paying really high for a When I look at this entire rotation outside. I throw copek aside. I would rather invest in Lance Lane and Gielito bouncing back than I would Dylan Ceese being able to repeat what he can do. Nick Pollock was on here when I mentioned him as a bus he agreed, no way, he's I think his quote was, it's a
laughable where Dylan Ceese is going. So this is a very risky pick if you jump in and invest in your SPS on this high of a walk rate and a player that's going to be able to repeat what he did last year.
I agree. I think the ADP is a little high right now for him, and I like the return you're getting on Gilito and Lance Lane later one percent. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about fan Tracks. Fan Tracks is the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience of your dynasty keeper, redraft and best ball leagues. Create or join a Fantasy Baseball commissioner league, invite your friends and
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Sign up for free today and be entered to win an official signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior jersey by simply going to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros and signing up today. That's fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros for your chance to win that official signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey Fan Tracks, the Home of Fantasy Sports, and now back to the action. Next guy on my list is Clayton Kershaw. Back to
back seasons of twenty two starts. It's not gonna do it for me, A guy said, chronic back issues, and he's only thirty four. And I say oldly because I'm looking at Verlander and Scherzer and those guys are like one hundred and thirty four and they're still out there, you know, trying to get it done. I mean, Verlander's coming off as I young, and I play in a lot of head to head formats, and I think when you play in the head to heads, you really got
to ask yourself this question. If we're already building in twenty two starts, is basically what our expectation is. What if we get a bigger injury? What do we get multiple What if we're in a situation here with Kershaw where it falls off the map, And that's a problem for me at his current ADP, which is at one ten.
If you look around the other pictures going there, it's guys we really like Blake Snell, George Kirby, like those are some of the pictures right back to back there where the high upside strikeouts of a guy like Hunter Green. I understand in season long rot O the appeal of Clayton Kershaw for you get those twenty something starts, you get some really good whip and ra numbers, you get
good strikeout total, everything that you want. But the durability factor for me is a top one hundred player, which is basically where he is, still just a little too high.
We'd rather take some of the upside of the Nick Lodolos of the world at this point in their careers because I'm already worried I'm trying to get blood out of a stone with Clayton Kershaw in those twenty two starts, and the more we kind of squeeze and squeeze, I'm just a little worded at the end of the day, like we're gonna get tapped at a certain point with Clayton Kershaw, and head to head it worries me more than season long Roto. So in season long rot more
app for that risk. In head to head it's a risk I just don't want to take.
Welsh, did you say you squeeze blood out of a stone.
I do don't think my hands are so strong. I have a stone. If I just squeeze it and it bleeds, it bleeds blood and then it says, why did you make me bleed my own blood?
There's a lot of risky pictures. Kershaw is a little bit and.
Icy to me, like I from a stone is a real thing. By the way, you're the king of mixing expressions. I thought you made it. I thought that was It's not a welshism.
That's a real you expect Now are you trying to screw.
Which? By the way, I have a follow up on that from Justin Mason for don't let me forget. I have the suggested new stat for next week. But let's let's continue on about Kershaw. Give me your ten seconds on Kershaw and then I want to move on to the next guy.
Yeah. I think in general Kershaw is where he's going. You could look at it as risky. I don't quite look at it outside the top one hundred is risky, but you just know what you're getting an innings. They will be good quality innings, but you have to be comfortable with like one hundred and forty innings is what you're going to get out of him, because you're not going to get much more.
All right, next guy on your list.
Welsh is who So I've got a Dolius Garcia And I think this is funny because this guy lived on this list last year. But there's something that is just standing out to me that I feel like we're being lulled into a sense of comfort. We're all like, well, it's done it for two years now, we're good. His ADP when you look over on Fantasy Pros is eighty
five on the consensus, which is a valuable tool. By the way, perusing through Fantasy Pros and looking you can see ECR and you can also look at consensus rank and I find that very valuable. Fifty eight is where he's going. Here's some outfielders that are going behind him, taoscar Hernandez, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Charlie Martes In. There my point, listen to those three. What's the difference.
Why?
It's because the stolen bases on adulis people feel I feel a lot more comfortable. He lowered a strikeout rate last year. He maintained his batting average, which was good but they are still high strikeout rates. There is still a really low walk rate. I appreciate that he steals bases, projections don't buy the stolen bases continuing. He also looks ginormous, by the way, but he always kind of does. He's just bigger than he was last year. He's a big guy.
But I just saw him and Camp. But beside the point, I feel a lulled sense of comfort that's going on with the dolls, and I don't want to fall for it. He is a twenty twenty guy. Fully acknowledge that he does it again, He'll break everybody. I just don't think it's the case. And I listed up three outfielders that really I'm going to take over a Doulas Garcia because I don't he has no floor as far as contact goes for me, with the higher strikeout rates in the
lower walk rates, and I don't know. I just the two fifty battery average does not feel like that is going to maintain. I think it's a really really high cost and it's built a lot just about stolen bases.
The next guy on my list is one of Welsh's old favorites. Now I'm not sure exactly where he stands on this year. But if you listened to the show last year, a lot of Byron Buxton talk and Byron Buckston reminds me of that that song The Last Dance by Gloria Gaynor, when I'm bad, I'm oh so bad. And he was sometimes sometimes he was great. The April was great to seventy one thousand ops. Then in May of Bucks sixty nine batting average and at sixty ten ops.
Then in June to seventy five batting average with a thousand ops. Then in July Buck eighty nine back affag. You see where I'm going here? Yeah, And then of course autist hits in September is he is not there and I'm looking at Buxton. And the thing we used always say is, well, at least you get the son basis with Buckston, except last year we didn't. We only got six deals out of him. We got a ton
of power, twenty in home runs. Nobody don't they expected the power return in the amount of games, twenty in homers in ninety two games. But the thing with Buckston is I just don't know who he is. And the only thing I do know about him is that he's just not there enough for me, and that at the end of the day, at the pick he's going, which is eighty seven. Overall, I struggle talking about those same guys around that vein, Brian Reynolds, Cormyn Carrol. I like
those guys more, Gunner, Henderson's a player. I absolutely love Dathaniel Low, William Donalds. There's a lot of guys in this range between eighty and one hundred that I'm really high on this year. And Bucks is a player that every year the expectations are there, and every year it's a disappointment. Welsh, where are you this year with Byron Buckson in twenty three?
I mean, I'm a little indifferent. I'm probably still like higher than the general sense, but I don't disagree with you. When I get into the eighties, it's not quite bust in time for me, so I think I've missed out a lot of opportunities in it. The thing I would argue is like the batting average did stink, sure, but even when the batting average stunk, he had a career high in homers and he still stoles still six bases in ninety games. If you were just to extrapolate for
a little bit. Even if he continued at his piss poor batting average of two twenty four, which by the way, was paired with a career a second career low in babbit only the I think third time overall that esp actually the third that he's ever hit under a three hundred on his babbit. He is a career three to zero five babbit. So this is over sixty points lower and his normal babbit. He's still hit twenty eight homers
with six dolen bases. Extrapolate over in those ninety games you're going to add on let's just say some word crazy world where he played one hundred and fifty, he would have been a forty ten guy last year. That's where he would have looked at it. But his strikeout rates absurd, his contact went through the roof. I agree, I kind of don't know exactly who he is. The only thing that I wish would stop with Byron Buckston is people pretending like he's not incredible, because he is incredible.
Look what he did in the short amount of time on a really bad batting average. He is an incredible fantasy player when he's out there, So they don't pretend like he's not, but he is broken all the time, and that's what stinks. And I don't blame anybody for moving off of him because I'm kind of doing the same thing. I don't go on it, but if he plays one hundred and thirty games, all of you are going to miss out on probably what is going to be a first round talent. It's just he ain't gonna
do it. He ain't gonna play one hundred and thirty games.
My knock on him is always the same thing it was when he was I think taking second overall the year in the draft. I said to me, Byron Buckson was a better athlete than a baseball player. That was always my knock on him. And I know he missed a lot of developmental time with a lot of injuries. So it's not like he got to the major leagues and the injuries were problems. The injuries were a problem in the minor leagues. He had minor league injuries. He
missed time, He missed development time. That was our big concern with him, and that is incredible. Raw athleticism has always carried him. But eventually, now we're getting to a point where it's just a tough investment for me. I'm with you, like, if you get a bud, get a discount on him. I'm listening, but it's definitely.
RELEGI you're listening. I'm drafting. The problem is fine, would you say it was eighty seven?
Eighty seven?
I don't even know if I can pull the trigger on that. I had to get a discount to do it. You have to get a discount to consent. And that's to make Buckston. He's probably I think like Tatis from the Hole is kind of like the number one guy. This is probably number three if we're not counting the blatantly obvious Jacob de Groz.
Sure, all right, next guy on your Liz Welsh, is.
Who Tim Anderson? Now, Tim Anderson's skill sets are really not to be debated, you know. Still thirteen bases last year played, had six homers, hit three to zero one. That is four straight seasons of a thirty three hundred batting average or better. He's lowered his strikeout rate. It was actually the lowest of his career this past year, which was awesome. Had fifty runs, but seventy nine games.
Fifty runs in seventy nine games is the problem because had one hundred and twenty three games a year before that, forty nine in the COVID year still missed time one hundred and twenty three. He's played one hundred and fifty games once in his career. So the same thing that we penalized Viral Buxton about Tim Anderson is not that much different. He does maybe he plays a few more games.
He doesn't play full seasons, he doesn't come close to playing full seasons, and he doesn't come close to living up to his expectations. We keep continuously chasing his twenty twenty season in twenty eighteen. We don't get there because he doesn't play the games. He has a better underlying safety net because he doesn't strike out at the same rate,
But the guy also doesn't walk. So I also kind of don't want to hear about why Tim Anderson is such a smashing deal to everybody, and Byron Buckson is the worst pick you can possibly have because he also doesn't play the games. If he did and he was a twenty twenty guy, he's an insane deal, and I'm cool with it. I'm cool with taking Tim Anderson under that, guys, but you do need to know you're not gonna get
a full season of games because it never happens. So he's very risky if you pass up all those incredible shortstops because you're telling yourself, Oh, I can get Tim Anderson. He's awesome. Yeah, he is for one hundred and ten games.
Before I get to the shortstop on my list. I want to remind everybody if you're watching on our YouTube channel, subscribe to fans of ros MLB and if you're listening to us on the podcast format, go subscribe to our YouTube channel. Do it. It's fun, it's amazing, and we're giving away a free upgrade of Fantasy Pros Premium for somebody who is a subscriber who clicks a little bel until it goes dig for notifications and drops a comment below.
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Sign up today Fantasypros dot com slash Premium or at least throw your hat in the ring for the freebe two. But again, either way, subscribe to Fantasy Pros m l B. It's where it's at. Let's get to the short slop on my list. It's Carlos Korea. Now, Korea had a pretty good season. Talk about a guy who's limited to one hundred and twenty games every year, you kind of have that expectation with him, but he was good last year. The fact that not one but two organizations bucked at
giving him a long term contract. Now, look, I understand this is redraft we're talking about here. This is not dynasty or keeper leak scenarios. But what if it's even worse than we think Welsh Like, what if there's just something here that to me that these two organizations saw what they saw reacted the way they did, It tells me there's even more inherent risk in Carl's Korea than we might realize. He's going at number one hundred overall,
still a place where the risk is understandable. You can look at it and say, Okay, I'm gonna go ahead and take this risk. I'm okay with it. But shortstop is pretty deep. Shortstop has I think ways you can go about it. Carlos Correa is going right after Willia Damas, He's going right before Jeremy Pania. I'med Rosario, like, there's some guys out there you can still kind of get along with. I mean, Tim Anderson has fallen into a
lot of drafts too, I've seen recently. So there's definitely this risky pile of shortstops, and I'm just a little concern that maybe Carlos Korea's long term health might be more of a short term risk than we realize, and people aren't thinking enough like that. I'm not saying he can't take him. I'm just saying, if you do, you better have a plan. What do you think about Korea?
Yeah, I think so. The only thing is like he's played what is close to three full seasons. He played one hundred and thirty six to six games this past year, which isn't like a full but it's better than Tim Anderson.
One hundred and forty eight the year before, no doubt.
Which is still close to a full season, and fifty eight in the COVID year. I mean that's three straight years.
His bomb was also a guy pushing for a contract in those years. That's not for you, But I don't.
Think you just you get your money and you're just like, all right, cool, let's break the ankle. You know it's gonna lik relegate.
But there's one thing to push through, and then the players, when they get the long term guaranteed money, the pushing all of a sudden stops. Well.
One of his biggest problem is like pushing through the production.
He literally has like.
Never lived up to his expectations.
Like he has.
We're always like, oh, hitting, he can't. He hasn't stolen a base for three years. That's out the window. The run totals he had one year. Funny enough, you could take the COVID year and twenty twenty two and it's still not the amount of runs he scored in twenty twel that was the outlier out there. So like, he just doesn't live up to expectations. He has this crazy lingering ankle thing that we're staring at, that's in our face. I do think that makes him risky. But here's my question.
Ninety one ADP is Tim Anderson one hundred is Carlos Korea. Do you think Carlos who is riskier to you? Do you think Carlos Korea is so much safer than Tim Anderson or risky?
No, I think Korea is risk here. I really do.
I like Anders Why because because but Anderson plays less games without USh.
He's going to give you the stolen bases, and he's gonna give me, I know, the batting average. I'm gonna lock it. He gives you those two things that I think are a little harder to find, which is batting average and solen bases, whereas Korea that you're not getting any steals. You know that that's never coming. And I'll be the first to admit, like I thought, Carlos Correa is going to be a franchise type player and it just never materialized. Maybe his injuries, maybe just was overrated.
But I remember the first time I saw him when he was like seventeen eighteen years old, and I thought, my god, this guy could be the next a Rod And he just never never developed in the same way. And I don't think he grew the same way either. I think he looked at the frame and you thought he was going to develop in a different way, and he never did, and I think maybe that's also part of the equation. But at the end of the day, it's a player that again the risk for me is not great.
I think they're as risky as you can get. And this is such a deep position, and we fall into this sometimes that I think it's a crutch where you know it's so deep, I can get it later, I can get one of those guys. I think you put yourself in a massive amount of risk. I think Tim Anderson is as risky as Carlos Korea for different reasons. Anderson has a floor. Maybe statistically, Correa is gonna play more games. That's just a fact because that's what he does.
Want to wonder Franco and Andre Semenez a.
Better short stop, that's my whole point. Take a better shortstop than all of these losers.
Please, I agree. I say, let's get to the last guy on your lovingly it's the lovingly loser kind of situation. Here, give me the last guy on your list. Welsh and I love this one.
Tyler O'Neill. Tyler O'Neill, I cannot wrap my head around. I'm not going to even try guys projections have wild numbers. People love him. He had a wardier last year ninety six games, fourteen fourteen homers, fourteen sol base is okay. He hit two twenty eight. Strikeout rate was better than the previous year, but still relatively bad. Babbit was low, so you could see that kind of bouncing back up, but a hard hit tanked. It went to forty three
percent from fifty two percent. His barrel rate dropped six percent, his launch angle went down. I look at all of that stuff and I go, okay, Like he's a good fantasy player, but he's becoming this perennial buyback bad X as him at twenty six homers, fifteen stolen bases, and I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around how comfortable people are drafting him, thinking we're just back, We're
just getting this completely back. And I know it's annoying to this point, but I would rather go and take my chances with large newbar than this. I think there's a lot of strikeout volatility. The batting average worried me. In general. He's obviously a physical freak and a monster and can absolutely rocket balls out of there. I've just never been a big Tyler on and it's coming off of a really bad year. I think he is plenty risky, though his cost isn't crazy, but it's still one oh two.
It's just after a top one hundred, and that doesn't process in my brain why I would take a one hundred overall pick for Tyler O'Neill. On the bounce back, I'd say, it's a big no, thank you. It's amazing seeing him next to Byron Buxton. I might be crazy. I'll take Byron Buxton, Toots, take Tyler O'Neill.
Please, that's not even close, not even close for me. I'm with you on that. So there we go. We found the losers we love. There we go, all right, no spoiler alert here. It's you know, same old, same old, the twenty sixth player overall, the number five pitcher overall, Jacob deGrom. I'm not doing it. He is the riskiest pick in Fantasy baseball, and I'm somebody who's fading to the top of the board at pitching anyway, because I want that offense this year. I want to make sure
I lock those guys in. And as I've said many times on the show, pitchers ten through thirty. There's a lot of ace material there and you don't get that every so, whether it's some of the guys that are a little undervalued because of age, where there guys that are just you know, like Joe Musco who performed like an age we we talking about Joe Muscove was nlsy
young for the first four months of the year. Okay, there's a lot of guys out there that you can live with in your rotation and get a couple of them and kind of pound that ten to thirty range and get two or three guys out of there. I'm not doing it with Jacob de Gram. I'm not doing it. And you know what I thought of today? This was a new wrinkles, like how can I beat this drum
a different way? And here it is wels Jacob de Gram. Arguably, I think you would agree when he is right, is the best picture in baseball.
Correct, It's without question?
Why did nobody else want him but the Texas Rangers?
Well, how do you know that? I mean, the Texas Rangers offered a tank a tank of money, So.
What do you they offered a tank of money? But did you hear I didn't hear one buzz about anybody else kicking the tires on Jacob de Gram. Significant offers being made. The Mets made offer, there's an underwhelming offer. It was a market value offer because they know what they're getting into with him. But only the Texas Rangers who need to overpay in order to get guys there, and Jacob de Gram certainly was not going to turn that money down. But where were the Yankees, Where were
the Dodgers? Where were Houston? Where? I mean Houston Astro is going to use the starting pitcher with Justin Verlander leaving right. None of those teams stepped up to have conversations with Jacob de Gram. I think that's a huge red flag that people should recognize and realize. It's not that he can't be good, it's that that you're asking that adp for him to be thirty starts good and I can't get there, Welsh, I just can't do it. Yeah, I get it.
I don't. I don't like where he is now. The camp stuff has bothered me. It really has, because I've watched his demeanor, like like walking around and his interactions and also him not doing anything. He just like walks around. He's never doing anything he threw. I believe it was on Thursday he threw like thirteen pitches in a full bullpen session, which I is a positive by the way,
all fastballs. He had done a couple of light toss before that, and then he's expected maybe later next week or in to this week, four or five days that maybe he's going to start doing like a more intense bullpen session and then getting into games. I think he's gonna kind of buck some of the concerns that have been brewing. But I just haven't liked it in general. And that's not a picture you pay like the third overall sp four, you should pay quite a lower bit
for it. I'm still in Jacob de Gram and I'll take I mean, if he's five here, I think it's probably closer to eight or nine. That's where it would really be comfortable. And you are right, you know the Tatis thing. He's the highest capital risk of any player that you have to take. But Jacob de Gram is probably the riskiest because if you spend a really really high piece on him and he gets hurt like he does,
it's gonna set you back. The problem is is he just is the best picture in all the baseball and he could literally win you a half of a year and he could you know, return your stats in rodo or he could set you set you off in a head to head if he earlies misses time. But you just have no idea.
You have no idea what you do Where you take de Grom when he bottoms out, you're missing on offense too, and then you're busing on pitching. Also, I mean, like the like the big pitch completely wrong.
Then that's like the big pitching argument too. Right now is like you have really early high investment in pitching, you're just passing up like really elite elite hitters. And that's I think really tough to do because of the great pitch. And we've talked about like a ton of the names like the George Kirby's and the Hunter Greens and the Musgroves and stuff. You can get those guys later. I think it's really hard to palot like why you would take a guy like Jacob Gram with all the risk.
And I'm acknowledging that and I'm like the Jacob de Gram apologist, so I totally get it.
All right, let's talk about our early spring training adp risers. I figured what we do is look at the consensus ADP and then look at some of the guys where they're going in NFBC, because the NFBC drafts are very serious, and those are good indicators of where trends are going because those leagues have a lot of money invested in them. So the first one for me is Josh Hater. Fifty three is the consensus ADP for him. NFBC is forty one.
So those closers tend to get bumped up in those formats, closers and catchers, and NFBC you'll see a little higher ADP two speaking, but the Hater one, obviously people were just buying into what they saw when he went to San Diego and getting the ship right. Corbyn Carroll one of our mascots. He might be this year's mascot on the show. He might be eighty two in consensus seventy in NFBC. So that is a big jump here at a twelve spot jump for the NFBC people. They're telling
you they're being aggressive on this player. That's a good thing. Now he's a value in early drafts, but that might not last very long. So as we get closer and closer to your draft days, keep an eye and be ready to pay the premium. And then Jonathan India, people are starting to get a little forgiveness on Justin Mason last week in the draft. Hello forgiveness for Jonathan India. He drafted him. One ninety one is the consensus ADP
one seventy eight is the NFBC one. So people are starting to look at Jonathan India starting to get out of the tunnel vision of last year and say, Okay, this was a player who was a high prospect, had a very good rookie campaign last year. Nothing went right for him, and they're starting to buy back in Now that's one that I think has risk, ironically, but Corbyn, Carrol, Josh Hater, those are two guys you can see the ADP starting to rise, So get ready to spend because
that's not going away anytime soon. And then India is a player that you have to ask yourself, do I want to spend on this player when he goes past that one to seventy ish range that becomes more of a risk. Wells, who were three guys that you've seen starting to roll up in ADP early on?
Yeah, these are low. These are a little bit lower numerically, but there's also been some actually like string training buzz that is going to push them up. I sorted this also by NFBC Draft Champions from February first on. Compared to the Fantasy Pros consensus, oneal Cruz has gone up a couple spots seventy three on Fantasy Pros, seventy one on NFBC. I know that doesn't seem like a lot,
but that church stop position is so deep. Oneal Cruz simply going out in spring training and talking about not only does he want to be a thirty thirty guy, but he is setting goals to try to be a forty to forty player, And I think significantly that just jumps in all of our minds. Him simply saying that just makes us go into a frenzy and he will start going up, and I think it's warranted. I want oneo Cruz. I have him higher than this. I would
hate to see him go too crazy. But after Corey Seger goes off the board, I'm looking on O'nillkruz because of the insane stats. He has number two Gunner Henderson ninety three on Fantasy Pro Since February first, he's jumped up to ninety on NFBC. A big reason also with that is kind of the same Korby Carrol stuff. There's a lot of rookie excitement in there, but position eligibility.
Almost everybody agrees on this one statement that Gunner Henderson ends the tier of comfortable third basement, and that is only going to make a player go up, especially as he gets into games and starts to roll. So you're slowly starting.
To see this.
It will be much bigger soon. And then the final one is Joe Ryan one forty five on Fantasy pros. He's jumped up to one forty on NFBC. That's relatively significant, and he talked about adding a new pitch. There's a couple of good articles out there. I believe Alex Fast
was covering him. New pitch alert tends to always get a pitcher moving up, but Joe Ryan is one of the few that's at a really low cost and has a really good floor, and people are jumping on Joe Ryan, Gunner Henderson on'el Cruz some spring training adp risers that are only going to increase, and we're seeing it at least from February first on over on NFBC and.
Joe Ryan for me, well, she's one of those guys. I've already put draft capital in. I've got it in my keeper leagues too, So keep an eye who else is right. That cost is not going to stay cheap much longer. So those are your risky guys, your early adp risers. Again, drop your comments below in the YouTube. We want to know from you who some of your risky picks are that you love and you hate, love it. You want to call them losers, Go ahead, do it.
Make sure you subscribe the thing. When you do, that's right, lovingly losers, But you got to be a subscriber. First click that little beltill it goes ding, and then you go premium at fantasypros dot com slash Premium and get your mock draft on at fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard, or just download the app. Make it easy on yourself. I want to thank the sponsor of today's show, and
that's Fantracks. Head over to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros today, start a new league or move your old leagues over to Fantracks the best place to play fantasy baseball, and when you do, you could win a sign Vladdie Junior Jersey only at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Prose. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the
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