Week 17: DFS Angles

fantasy off season. We did it is it's it's the fantasy off season, even if it's not even I guess the I wouldn't even call the time in the playoffs, regular reality season, fantasy off season exactly. And I didn't think we were gonna make it here. To be honest with you, I don't know. I don't know about your wind back to August. Look, but hey, and give the NFL credit. Man. They just said we're gonna power through this. And there are a lot of people that said, oh no,

that's wrong. What do you want to do? Do you infect? You know, infect all the players? You want to give thirty two teams COVID you know what they you know? To their credit, it wasn't always a smooth ride and a lot of people that do a lot of adapting, including fantasy owners. But at the end of the day, the NFL had it right. They can get through the playoffs. About any major hiccups too, we don't want to jink them now. How from a fantasy perspective, we don't care

what we're done. Mostly yes, uh ex some weeks seventeen seasonal, it's over. If you're playing it. You know, as you guys already know if you're listening to podcast, if you're playing your Fantasy championship in weeks seventeen, you're doing it wrong. But we believe this is a great opportunity for daily Fantasy Sports, and that's we're going to just spend most of this podcast talking about some angles that we like for DFS. Um Some people don't even know what DFS

stands for. I just think I think that makes sense. I think there's a great opportunity for DFS players in weeks seventeen, Brian, because some percentage of the people that are playing this week, they're not even really paying five ten percent aren't paying close enough attention to all the things that shift in week seventeen. You gotta really pay close attention in Week seventeen. Well, let's dialing back really quick. Just for anyone who doesn't know what daily Fantasy sports is.

Most do. But if you don't, if you happen to not know, it's whatever you know about fantasy football marries up to DFS in the lineup that you set is very similar. One quarterback to running backs, blah blah blah. The scoring is very similar to what you're used to. But where it's different is you build your team with a fake salary cap. Most sites it's fifty dollars. You use that, and every player has a price tag attached

to him. The better ones are more expensive, the ones who aren't as good are cheaper, so you can't just load up on all the good players. That's DFS in a nutshell, all right, And what I think there's do you want to go beyond that and explain, you know, game theory stuff like that, Well, real quick, we won't go we won't get too hand holding, we won't get too heavy. But when we talk about some players we like this week, we're gonna say they are a good

tournament play or a cash game play. There's generally two kinds of games, and daily Fantasy sports there's tournaments, and those are the big contests where there's a first place, a second place, a third place, all the way down the line, and those are the contests where you really well, those are the tournaments. Then the cash games are the head to heads or the fifty fifties where either you're playing against one person or half of the people in

the contest win. And in those contests, you just kind of want to stay with the pack, you know what I mean. You don't want to differentiate, you don't want to get too contrarian. I'm throwing a lot of buzzwords out there. You don't want to use leverage plays. You just kinda you go with the best plays basically in cash games, but in tournaments you got a straight from the pack. At times you got a zig while other zag.

You can't just go with all the chalky best plays or you're flat out it's not gonna win a tournament because there's too many people. Many people, so you know, there might be a thousand people in the tournament or twenty thousand people in the tournament. So if you just if you play everything normal, you're not going to stand especially if you only have one or two line up because you're going upup against guys that have a hundred lineups and they're they're using all all of the pular place,

so you have to zig while other zag. All right, is there any other daily Fantasy sports one oh one that you think our listeners need to know right now at before we get started. I would say they call it a game of skill, it's still gambling. Don't put up money that you're not comfortable losing in DFS because it is very hard to win in DFS, especially in tournaments. DFS and fantasy does not meet the legal definition of gambling. Let me be extremely clear about this. What Brian just

said is wrong. It is not gambling, just an opinion. It is you, but you are putting your cash at risk, but it is not cofinition of gambling. Black and white not gambling. Let's talk about some of the NFL teams you need to avoid as you're putting together your your

your daily Fantasy rosters. And now when you're playing on most sites, you can literally remove these teams from your player pool by n clicking them in the matchups above, and I suggest doing that because you do not want any of these guys in any of your TFS lineups these teams. The Steelers have announced they're resting their starters.

The Chiefs have announced they're resting their starters. Because the Steelers arresting their starters, they're effectively giving up on the number two seed, which means Buffalo is going to have the number two seed, which means Buffalo doesn't have to play their starters either. So there's a lot of danger with them. And then one other team that I think

you I would just play a void is Tampa. They can only move from the fifth seed to the sixth seed, and both of those are first round road games, and the Bucks may just decide we don't know yet. Bucks may just decide we don't care enough between the fifth seed and the sixth seeds, so it doesn't matter, and we'd rather just rest our starters that that's a better

advantage for us. There's one small angle that they might want to target the NFC East team, right, but you could try to target you could try to target that NFC East team. Let me throw one more thing in here, because when the morning wave of games is over on Sunday, that's going to alter how some teams may handle their games in the afternoon sleep. So you always here in seasonal leagues on Thursday, right. Never if you have Thursday players,

never put him in your flex spot. You want to put him in your running back or wide receiver spot. That's definitely true. It's more so true in Daily Fantasy Sports. Even if all the teams are playing, all the players are playing on the same day, make sure you have your latest start time in that flex spot. Even if it's your favorite player in your lineup and you're like, he's my favorite running back, don't PLoP him in at

running back. Put him in and your flex spot, whether it's a running back, a wide receiver, even a tight end. The latest spot, the latest start always in your flex butt in DFS, especially in COVID times because players get scratched right before the game. Look at des Brian and you want to leave yourself ultimate flexibility. Okay, so back to some of the teams that you're talking about, the teams you don't want to target. The teams that are

highly motivated to win on Sunday are Cleveland. Uh, they'll be going up against the Steelers, a team with backups as we mentioned, and for Cleveland, it's not only a playoff spot. It's a win over a hated division rival who has dominated the brown for like twenty years. So you know this. I think the Browns are gonna be up for this. Tennessee needs a win for the division title and home game in Round one. Highly motivated team.

They at Jacksonville Ravens have a winning in scenario and if they lose, they likely go home, so they are highly motivated. Indie needs a win and help. Green Bay looks to lock up home field with a win, so they'll be motivated. New Orleans can leap frog Green Bay to the number one seed with a win and some help. Packers can go so keep there. You could argue the vikings of their biggest rival. They would keep the Bears out of the playoffs two if they win that game.

Although if you're the Packers, I want the Bears a fair point and I want to I seriously, I want the Bears in in the playoffs. That is a that's a team you can beat. Uh. We mentioned New Orleans. I believe that can leap frog Green Bay. Washington needs can they win. They're inna win in scenario, so and lose. If they lose, they go home. So highly motivated. Team there, but that's a tough offense to find helping. Uh Rams need a John Wolford lead, a win over in Arizona

or a loss by Chicago to Green Bay. So there they will be playing to win, but they'll be doing without their starting quarterback, their best receiver, and two running backs. So bad news the Rams. Chicago's gotta win. In scenario Dallas needs a win and help and the Giants need to win and help. Um they play each other. So it's a lot of teams that are highly motivated for playoff positioning. Now let's talk about some of the players that that caught our I especially by the dollar at

the quarterback position. Brian go ahead, Uh well, I like Ryan Tannehill a lot, and how can you not. He's up against the Texans who have packed it in. Well, they packed it in last year essentially for this season, and in Tannehill has played Houston already had sixty four passing yards four touchdowns against the Texans in Week six. I mean Brandon Allen just had three seventy yards and two touchdowns for the Bengals against the Texans last year. Now, now Tan Hills not chep seven k on d K

that's uh, you know, six seventh pricest quarterback. But I don't see his ownership percentage being super high because of the running back on that team we're going to talk about. Finally, just pivot him for a second. So Derrick Henry is and this is the most favorable matchup of his year, and it's a must win scenario. Yeah, so you have to make I think you have to make a decision on whether or not you're gonna go in on on

Derrick Henry. Yeah. In cash games, he's a guy that pretty much everyone's gonna plug into their lineup in a fifty fifty or a double up where you just have to essentially come in the top half of your league. Double ups or doubles is more like to But yeah, in in a tournament play and I only see very expensive. But if he goes belly up, you're screwed because you've spent all your monum. So to answer your question, if you're playing one lineup in a g PP, I would

not play Derrick Henry. I think his ownership percentage will still be high because it's a really good matchup against an awful, awful run defense, and he has proven success over them year in and year out. All right, so I would I would get back to Hill. So at the contrarian angle then is is too, are you stacking Titans? Yeah? I would gain even more leverage by not playing Derrick Henry. And if Derrick Henry doesn't hit his five six times value and that's basically you multiply his salary by five

or six and you get that many fantasy points. Yeah, I would stack a J. Brown, who I believe has four touchdowns in three career games against the Texans, and uh maybe even throw what we'll talk about Titans a

little later, your boy John you Smith in there. But uh yeah, that's how you gain leverage, not just talking to uh titan's in any If you feel a player is gonna be super high owned, and that's a running back, then your your leverage plays either the running back from the other team or the passing game from that same team. And uh and that's the instance here, I think Henry is gonna be ownership and uh so, yeah, the leverage playby Tannehill and his receivers. I am really intrigued by

Baker Mayfield. He's only dollars, uh that and he's my number six rand quarterback because the Steelers have nothing to play for. I think this is this is the stack I would put into a bigger tournament. Uh, to differentiate myself, I would be And you're gonna hear more Browns come up later on in the show. I like Baker Mayfield dollars instead of the seven thousand that Tan Hill. Yeah, he comes in cheaper, and then last week we didn't

have any of his wide receivers. So yeah, yeah, the books to sees Pittsburgh, but they're not factoring in how bad that defense is going to be depleted personally right right and if Steelers just don't have anything to play for. So I think that's a good angle. Are there any other quarterbacks you want to talk about? Yeah? And this is a pretty much a meeting, meaningless game between the Lions and the Vikings. But I like Cousins at sixty hundred. He won't have his left tackle. But the Lions are

probably the least motivated team out there. They're gonna be without a lot of players. And uh, Cousins at two hundred, twenty three yards and three touchdowns against Detroit in Week nine on just twenty past attempts, and they're gonna be Samsdalvin, Cook, Alexander and Madison not guaranteed to play. They got Justin Jefferson chasing the Rookie of the Year award essentially, and Kirk's is gonna want to shut up the haters one

more time this year, and I just see him. The Vikings should have fun in this game with their skill players. I don't see why they would not, so uh by injuries. This game might get overlooked because it's totally meaningless to both teams. So I like Cousins, and again, it's a very stackable team with Jefferson and even feeling too all right, let's go to the running back position. Um, we talked

about Derrick Henry. We're mostly saying we I think we can find better value elsewhere, and you know, I'd love to have Derrick Henry, but I'm not. So Let's talk about some of the other guys you like, beginning with David Montgomery. Yeah, David Montgomery has arguably the ceiling just about as high as Henry. He's outperformed performed Henry last week, and Henry had the better matchup in Montgomery essentially underperformed

even though he hit twenty points. He didn't score touchdown, and we did score, but he didn't get hundred yards. People were expecting a bigger game from from Montgomery last week, but he should have a great game against green Bay. He did in week twelve, had a hundred and three yards on just eleven carries. He added forty receiving yards and receiving touchdown. The path of least resistance against the

Packers is still against the run. Derrick Henry's improved that against Green Bay last week, but the game script got flipped upside down on Tennessee and Chicago has a chance to win this game. Packers will be without David back try and uh, yeah, Chicago and keep Rogers off the field, and they're gonna feed Montgomery heavily. So at seventy seven hundred, almost two thousand less than Henry, Montgomery's a guylking tournaments. Uh, talk to me about Miles Gaskin. This is a game

in which two is going to get the start. Uh, And I think there's a lot of people that have a lot of trepidation about starting to in this in

this matchup. And I would and I'd be if I were the Dolphins, I'd be orienting towards the running game here and Gaskin got almost all the work last week with Savant Akhmed and Acumed got the start, and you could tell they were kind of wanting to maybe a fifty fifty split, but Gasking just so much better that would never saw the field essentially after the first quarter. And again, this is one of those very motivated teams in Miami playing against a very unmotivated Buffalo team, and

Gasking is a very moderately price that. This is a guy I think you'll see is somewhat popular in both cash games and tournaments, but at that price in this expected workload, that was the first game we're acumented and Gasking. We're both healthy too, and Gasting just blow him out of the water when it comes to playing time. So I think he's a guy that I would up lock into most lineups, regardless of playing tournaments or cash games.

This week heavily owned player might be Ty Johnson of the Jets, because he's the starting running back for the Jets against the Patriots run defense that has packed it in, giving a five and a half yards per carry over the last three weeks. Uh, Ty Johnson, and we've got so Frank Gore's out, uh and La Michael p Ryan is on the COVID list. So it's gonna be all Thy Johnson in this game. And he's had one other game where he had a workhorse role and in that game we got twenty two carries. He put up a

hundred four rushing yards and a touchdown on the Raiders. Yeah, that's when Gore got hurt in like the first carry. I remember I was heavy on Frank Gore that week, so I remember that week. Well, Johnson did well. Yeah as Raiders, and then Johnson did well when Gore came back. Even though Gore got all the carries, he had six catches and a touchdown the following week. So yeah, he

can play for sure. And now he's only he's gonna be a lot of people are happening in both cash games and tournaments, so he's not a full on fade. But when it's it's tough to pass on a bell cow running back at this price. But if you have the stones too, and we'll talk about a leverage play very shortly on the Jets. If you're not gonna go with Thi Johnson, but Chi Johnson went to the bed, you have a huge edge on the field. Even even though he was so cheap. His ownership percentage projects to

be very high. But I would come in personally owning him less than the thirty. He'll probably be owned by the field by only owning him. Like two of my ten lineups per se, Alexander Madison looks to me the vi Kings lead back with Dalvin Cook out. He goes up against the Lions, a team allowing the fifth most rushing yards, fifth most receiving yards to oppose it running backs, and Dalvin Cook destroyed them when they met earlier in this season. Um, they're the Vikings. If you want to

go contrain. You talked about Cousins, and we do like the passing game here, but it's still the Vikings. They're never going to give up on the running game completely, and they could make if they could decide. Coaching staff could decide, we want to protect our most valuable players, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thiel, and Justin Jefferson. We're just gonna

run Alexander Madison in this gamp. Yeah. One of the most common mistakes in fantasy football, whether it's daily or season, is a backup running back gets the starting job for whatever reason, the suspension, injury, and you just assume he's going to perform like the starter did. That's usually not the case, but that's kind of the case with Alexander Madison when he's gotten the opportunity. So yeah, I love

the Madison play. He'll probably be another very popular cash game option because he seems like a very safe play. I don't think his own ship percentage will be as high in tournaments because people will want to differentiate and there's a little worry because he's questionable, they might give Mike Boone some run runs. So, uh, we have Madison certainly in play this week. We expect Madison to be

available here. What do you think about Kareem Hunt, who I've added to our discussion list here at fifty hundred dollars And we talked about Browns earlier. They've got a you know, they've got a matchup against the Steelers team that's not got it doesn't have anything to play for. We saw Jonathan Taylor and Giovanni Bernard both put up big games against the Steelers in the last two weeks, and maybe the Browns just get ahead early in this one and they just rest Nick Chubb. Some, yeah, that's

a lot of maybe for it's cheap, he's not. Yeah, he's not. That's the same price as Madison. Do you expect Madison to to be the bell cow? Essentially? If Chubb's yeah, hundreds still a backup running back, right, he gets good run it at the backup running backs. But but it's six K. His ten to fifteen touches still aren't guaranteed. And you want you want fifteen guaranteed touches from your running back almost regardless price. And who's to say they don't rest. So I'm kind of off on Hunt.

He would be. He has a very high ceiling. He always does, so he would be a good tournament play because no one's gonna be on him. But like in a cash game where you're trying to stay with the pack, stay right the you know, the middle of the scoring field. Hans and Nog a guy like for the salary at wide receivers, Emmanuel Sanders. Since Drew Brees has come back, Sanders averaging eighty yards per game. Obviously no Michael Thomas

in this game. Trey Kwan Samith's question mark. The Panthers secondary has been all over the place, at the good bad good games, bad games. You don't know what you're gonna get there. But Sanders has been very bankable and dollars seems reasonable. Yeah, definitely, and uh, I think he will also be a pretty popular choice this week with Thomas Still and I are. But you can you can eat that chalk essentially, if he's gonna get you your points,

which if he sees the volume should alright. My next receiver, I like is is a value play Richard Higgins. Forty dollars. Jarvis Landry will cost you two thousand more than Richard Higgins. And I'm getting a guy who, over the last three weeks has basically been this has scored as well as Jarvis Landry has. He has scored and or top seventy six yards in three straight games for Chard Higgins has. I feel like this is a great opportunity to go Mayfield Higgins. I got a cheap quarterback. I got a

cheap receiver in a great matchup. Definitely, And these receivers are gonna be frothing at the mouth after being forced to And I feel so bad for Landry, who never missed the game in his career. Uh, that sucks me. If I had to pick between Higgins and Landry, It's definitely Higgins because of the price. Thousand dollar delta for sure. All right, tell me about Calvin Ridley. He's eighty five hundred dollars. That is a huge amount of second pricest

receiver on the slate. I think because Green Bay is still motivated, if someone's going to be spending up at receiver, they'll probably still go Davante Adam's way. Uh, this is kind of a just a gut call. These teams played two weeks ago, the Bucks and the Falcons, and really had ten catches a hundred sixty three yards in a touchdown on fourteen targets. There's no Julio. I don't think

Julio is playing this week. He's out, And really, I just think the only thing Atlanta has to play for right now is getting Calvin Ridley the receiving title, which he can get. He's in fourth place right now by yards by yards. He's about twenty behind Diggs, who's not going to play, essentially, so he's locked in. And then he's had Hopkins and Adams who are no more than fifty yards ahead of him, and the Adams maybe I don't know if Hopkins is gonna get at a big game.

I think they just speed Ridley mercilessly. In this game against a leaky secondary, was given up sixteen wide receiver touchdowns. Soon Davis may miss another game. This is just a thirty forty point potential, uh that I see people overlooking. For the most part, will probably only be owned about ten percent at most. You'll did to another Jets player that you liked. If you weren't gonna go Ty Johnson, who is it? Yeah? So if you're most people plug

in Thy Johnson into their lineup, they're not gonna. I really want to put a Jets wide receiver in your lineup. But uh, if I'm not playing Johnson, I'm playing Jameson Crowder for sure. And he had a big game last week. So but I'm I've always loved Jameson Crowder and he and Sam Donald they're fully clicking again. When he faced the Patriots the first time in Week nine, he was coming off a three week injury. Joe Flacco is the quarterback.

He still caught a touchdown. Um, I think he catches another touchdown on Sunday if not to and look, this is the Jets one chance to like just beat the piss out of the Patriots, right, we got a lot of never gets more promised, a lot of pent up, pent up aggression here. So um yeah, I just like Jameson Crowder at five k that that is way too cheap from a guy who's guaranteed to see ten targets.

Still a Patriots past defense that even without stuff on Gilmore has been good except last week, except last yea. And you know, but Josh is not on the field. It's Sam Donald. I'm I'm more nervous about this one than you are. But five thousand is a is a is a fair price to pay. Let's go to the tight end position. Um, I've got my guy Johnny Smith, who I like it only thirty eight hundred dollars. That's

everybody's given up on Johnny Smith. There's gonna be a ton of Tennessee stacks, but nobody's they're all gonna be stacking Tannehill and Davis, Tannehill and Brown. Nobody's gonna be stacking Tannehill. John You And that's I think that's your angle most you know, John Who's um targets have been good the last two weeks, five targets, seven targets. Finally healthy back you know, at the start of the season

healthy and he was a dominating tight end force. Then he got hurt, missed I think one game, played hurt for the better part of like five six weeks, but clearly back healthy again and part of this offensive rotation. And this feels like a good angle at only thirty hundred dollars, and I believe he went somewhat nuclear. Well, no, it was this was the first game. I think this is when Johnny got hurt. This is the game and are at eight matches, a hundred and thirteen yards and

a touchdown against the Texans. So yeah, I love the john who call, and really at tight end, I can usually find two or three guys third cheap, you know, minimum price, even that that I like. But I'm basically hand jamming Mike Kasecki into all my lineups this week. I'm treating him as a wide receiver one who you

can play at tight end. Again, they're playing against the unmotivated Buffalo Bills, who there have been three games where tight ends virtually did nothing two catches by opposing tight ends and three games against the Bills and that was two games against the Patriots in one game against the Jets. Those teams don't use their tight ends at all. So take those three games out. There's actually one game where Herndon did something against the Bill, so I kept that

in because he did something. But you take out those three games where tight ends did nothing because they weren't even targeted. And opposing tight ends are averaging six point seven five catches, seventy three yards and point seven touchdowns per game against Buffalo when they're playing motivated and Mike Kasecki had eight catches, a d thirty yards and a touchdown on the first meeting as well. When these teams played.

I was way back in week two. But still, because Sticky is, I'm treating him like a wide receiver one. And if I can put a wide receiver one in my tight end spot all day every day, makes sense. All right. Lastly, defenses, Um, you know, if this is always it always feels like, all right, what money do I have left? All right, I'll just pick that defense is really how you should treat it, and nothing too scientific here, Cleveland. You're going up against Pittsburgh, Yeah, Mason Rudolph,

Miami going up against the Matt Berkeley. I believe the Matt Berkeley probably led Bills. Uh, the Jets, I think there might be the cheapest option out there. On most sites, they just have the Pats. Well, and it's Cam Newton starts the game. Who you know, he's been benched so many times now that you don't even know who's gonna finish. I'll throw this in like so the Jets and you're using Ty Johnson, it's it's very It's usually good practice when you were using a running back because you expect

a lot of carry. Is when you expect a lot of carries, you expect clock control, you expect the team to win the game. So you usually want to pair you're one of your running backs with the defense because if the running backs on the field getting a lot of touches, usually the defense isn't giving up a lot of points and hopefully forcing some turnovers. So that makes sense. Ty Johnson with the Jets is pretty much a no brainer. If you're gonna use thy Johnson and then use the

Jets defense, all right, that makes sense. Um any other defenses that that's stick out for you, let me pull them up real quick. But no, because like you said, there's so much variants in defense. There's really you can do some research. But if that your team's defense, if their offense turns the ball over on the five yard line, then the other team gets the ball, they're gonna score and it's not your like. You focus on your key players and then just see what you can make work

with defense, really make sense. Don't focus on the defense when you're building your lineups. Alright, um charges against the Chiefs backups? Yeah, I like it. I can dig it. Okay, alright, there's all there's all something that Anthony Lynn. He can muck that up somehow. I don't know if I'm buying into anything employed still I can understand that. All right, Thanks for listening, everybody. It's our first offseason edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. We've got about, I don't know more

off season additions to go. Next week we'll be focusing on the NFL playoffs and playing in the playoffs. UH recommended formats for the playoffs guys that we likee Gangles that we like for your playoffs leagues, Which why wouldn't you play in the playoffs? You have to write? I mean it's so much fun. I love playoff fantasy football is fantastic, all right, Thanks everybody. We'll talk to you in one week. Bye Bye,