Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now, here's your host, Paul Chargion.
Hey, everybody, welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchi in joining me this week. Matt Harrison, Hi, listening to be back. Three of the last Yeah, this is a big stretch for you. Yeah, I mean, it's totally my time of year. It is. It is. It's Scott fish Next week we'll get into Scott fish Bowl because the drafts are starting.
Yeah. Are you doing a live draft this year? Are you doing the online one live?
I'm doing live in Minneapolis and live in Boston as well.
You're doing both live drafts?
Yes?
How do you do that?
They're not the same day.
That's how kid take two teams though, I can what?
I don't know. I just I just said, Scott said, can you do? Can you do Minneapolis?
Like? Sure? I don't know.
Maybe Scott Fishbowl is there is there there is a one team cap. Oh, maybe I don't have two teams I get maybe for one of them. I don't. I don't get a team. I don't know.
Well, I'll be at the Minneapolis draft. Okay, so I'll see you there.
You want to pick me up on the way.
I could.
It's downtown Minneapolis this year. It's not in the middle, it's not practically Wisconsin like it was before.
Yeah, that's true.
That's exciting stuff. I can't I can't wait for that uh plenty to get to in this show. Longtime listeners know all about do the Opposite before it was called zero, running back a decade before it was called do the Opposite?
When did you come up with the opposite as a draft strategy?
I've kept that issue with the magazine, and I believe it was two thousand and three. Okay, I think Mike Vick is on the cover as a falcon.
I'm pretty sure I have that magazine still somewhere in my basement. And and I remember, was it like the inconceivable guy from the Princess Bride in that article or was it something else? It was, Oh no, it was a Seinfeld.
Because it was George Costanza Seinfeld reference. Longtime listeners, you know what this is all about. It is, and especially back then, it was all about everybody's taking running backs at the top of the draft. You need to you need to do the opposite, not just because that's what everybody's doing, but there are a bunch of other great reasons as well, Matt. You know many of those great reasons to is shoe running backs at the top of the draft.
Well, yeah, at that point, everybody was taking two running backs with their first two picks, and maybe even three running backs with their first three picks. And so you came into the forefront and was like, hey, don't do that. I'm gonna take two wide receivers and a top quarterback or a top tight end, and then I'll fill quantity over quality on running backs because we know that it
flips so often in the running back position. And some of the things that I found even just last year, only eleven total running backs were able to manage ten touchdowns last season.
Yeah, that seems like.
A low barrier. That includes receiving touchdown, That includes receiving touchdowns. By the way PPR leagues, I mean, they're the popular, they're the preferred way to do it. Now, twenty two wide receivers had more catches than the top running back from last year.
That's amazing.
And then for context, in twenty twenty two, just a year before, Austin Eckler had one hundred and seven catches.
Out, which is unusually high.
That was high, But Christian McCaffrey had eighty five, so that was pretty high too. But only three wide receivers had more catches than Austin Eckler. And as we're a very reactionary society in fantasy football very much, we tried to play back last year. So this year is going to be the heaviest do the opposite draft year of all time. I'm fairly sure.
I think you're exactly right about that. A couple more things here. The core premise of do the opposite zero running back is the failure rate of running backs is by a margin way higher than all the other positions. So why are you putting your most valuable draft capital into the position that is the highest failure rate? And then you really have to hit, just hit home runs through the rest of your draft if those running backs
don't pan out. Running Backs have the shortest viable career span, you know, as we all know, short of Hall of famers, ye know, Adrian Peterson, who is viable for like eight years. Most running most of the really good running backs from from three years ago are not viable this year.
The cliff is so short.
It's so short, and it's so severe too, right there, Yes, it's so severe. So and then if anything else goes wrong with the team, it hurts the running back position. Offensive line is bad or injured, hurts the running back. Quarterback is bad or injured, hurts. The running back defense is bad, hurts the running back because now your teams that have deficit all the time and they're not running the ball. Yeah, it's it is. There's so many reasons
to avoid running backs early. And here's a little more data. And by the way, I should mention the court. What we're going to talk about today is when would you do the opposite? When would you undo the opposite? Undo the opposite? When would you do the opposite? Of do the opposite? Or do undo the opposite? That's a better phrase. Yeah, let's do undo the opposite. I've got a couple more stats. Yeah,
last year, well we want to know them. The average non running back drafted in the first two rounds, So this would be quarterbacks, tight ends, wide receivers on average lost eight positional spots from their draft position to their actual position, meaning DeVante Adams was taking his wide receiver eight, he finished his wide receiver sixteen. Okay, okay, So that's our baseline for non runners. Yeah, how about runners? On average?
Runners dropped twenty two positional spots god from their draft position to their actual position, meaning Tony Pollard was taken a RB six, he finished his RB twa. So that's a disaster, which is almost exactly where Tony Pollard was, and that was almost exactly where Devontay Adam was. As a couple of examples, that last year, after Christian McCaffrey, who went first and he was a great pack, you got exactly what you hope you get out of Christian McCaffrey.
The next eight runners after Christian McCaffrey that were drafted by ADP that was Eckler, Bjon Chubb, Barkley, Pollard, King, Henry Jacobs, and Najee finished as an with an average of running back twenty eight. I mean, just apocalyptically bad if you took any runner other than Christian McCaffrey at the top of your draft life.
So it's not hard to convince people draft wide receivers. Now.
We've been talking about this for you know, the better part of twenty years now, but now everybody is going to draft those wide receivers in the first two rounds. And what we kind of did today is I'm going to kind of pick your brain on this, and we're gonna go, at what point for these these running backs that are going in the first three rounds. There's ten of them exactly that are that are getting an ADP of the first three rounds and it's only ten. Yeah, ten,
We're down to ten. It used to be the first round was ten out of the first twelve. Yeah, we're running backs exactly.
So we're gonna look at that, and we're gonna kind of go, hey, where do I stop my do the opposite plan? Because this running back is is either good right right here at ADP and I do love him that much, or he fell a few picks down the slide and it's like, oh it's too good to pass up. Or he fell a few rounds down the slide and even though I don't like this running back, I see the value here.
Yes, And that's you know, we're so we'll look at these how many running backs do we look at the ten ten running backs and you can play long at home. At what point would you blink and go, okay, I'm taking this guy?
All right, Well let's start with Christian McCaffrey.
How about that? In many ways the hardest decision you've got.
Really, he's going off the board to pick one to one. He finished number one in PPR Fantasy points last year, had just over two thousand total yards and twenty one touchdowns. Now, the year before he had almost nineteen hundred total yards and thirteen scores.
Yep.
In every year he's been healthy for a full season, he's had a minimum of sixty seven receptions, which makes him very safe in PPR. But he did miss twenty two games in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one with injury. That and that's not that was not trivial. Those teams that that hurt that did hurt you quite a bit. He just turned twenty eight years old. But charge is
this a player? If you're sitting at one to one in a draft, are you still taking Christian McCaffrey or are you're going a different direction.
I don't blame anybody who does take Christian McCaffrey at the first overall pick. He was the most valuable player last year. And we all, as you mentioned at the outset, we all replayed last year. What could you know? Why would it be any different next year? Every year it's different.
It's weird they don't replay the season exactly.
But for me, I'm there are just there are receivers out there that I just know are gonna be great, and I'm not passing those receivers. And for me, there's six of them that I feel are just too good for me, and five for sure maybe six so okay, Ceedee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, I'm on ros Saint Brown. I just don't see scenarios where anything goes wrong with those guys in a significant way, even Justin Jefferson, although we might touch on him a little
bit later. I just feel like these I feel like they're all safe. After that tier, there's a j Brown, there's Pokinakua. They're really tempting to but I think at that point I would blink. So for me, I'm at I'm at pick six at there's no draft in America where.
He's not gonna be.
He's not gonna be there.
He's not gonna be He's not gonna be there.
But I just believe that strongly and just in do the opposite and taking the sure things with this. And I you know, I'm old enough to remember those two lost seasons with Christian McCaffrey. Now that puts me in the minority. Where would you take him?
I I think I'd still probably take him at one just because of the other world oldly talent that he possesses and the artic situation and the offense is just absolutely just right for him. So I'm not as invested in the DTO strategy as you are, but yeah, it's
definitely a question mark at some of these places. Let's go on to the next running back drafted, and I think you've already kind of answered this because Bryce Hall has an ADP of five point seven, and you already listed five wide receivers that you'd have definitely taking first, you'd have over Okay, and then Christian McCaffrey. He finished in number two in PPR points last season, which was impressive as he was coming off an ACL surgery.
And his offense was completely broken around him.
Yeah, Zach Wilson was heading the offense for most of the year. He finished with almost sixteen hundred total yards and scored nine times last year.
Charge, why thank you for that opportunity to nine times?
There it is thank you. He led all running backs in the league last year with seventy six receptions as well.
Yeah, that way better receiver than I think people realize.
Brice Hall definitely his seven game rookie season in twenty twenty two, he showed flashes of brilliance before the knee injury. He just turned twenty three years old, and he's got Aaron Rodgers back behind center. So Charge, it doesn't sound like you're gonna undo the opposite and pick Breese Hall pick six. But how far would Breese Hall have to fall for you to take him?
Good player, really good player, But he's also relying on Aaron Rodgers bouncing back at age forty. He'll turn forty one in season. I still think I want some of the sure thing wide receivers that are out there more than I want I want to roll the dice on any runner, even when I really I like as much as Breese Hall, who is really good, But even his
own teammate Garrett Wilson's really really good, really good. Remember he is ADP was what five last year, Yeah, because we loved him and he was great, and he was gonna have Aaron Rodgers.
And that's the season it looked like, oh my god, this would be amazing.
Yes, DeVante, Adam, Brandon, Ayuke, Nico Collins, Mike Evans. That's the that's the tier. I've got to go drop down before I'm considering Brice hall Is into that level, okay, and that you know, really that's bringing us into the end of the second round. So I'm I'm a full round plus later on Breece hall because I you know, I just I want I want those kinds of players. And I still think there's enough question marks here that
I would go almost a full round later. You know, give me, give me guys like Garrett Wilson ahead of ahead of him for sure?
Is Brice Hallier number two running back right now?
Yes?
Yes, okay, you mccaffreams, right now, Okay.
I like I like him a lot.
Well, I think we know what you're gonna say about Bjon Robinson, who's going off the board at pick six point seven. Let's just call it seven.
Let's do the rounding. Let's do the rounding.
Phillis okay, picked seven. Bijon finished as the number seven ranked PPR back last year fourteen hundred total yards eight scores, not bad for a rookie year with Desmond Ritter under center. There's a new coaching staff, a new quarterback in Kurt Cousins or Michael Pennix. Just kidding, just kidding, it's gonna be Kirk Cousins. But Bijon only had four games last season with sixteen or more carries and only scored four
rushing touchdowns last year. And for context, ye Tyler Algier had four rushing touchdowns last year and had sixteen or more carries in three games. It was more of a split than people think. Now. Everybody's picking Bijon at pick seven right now, so they think that he's gonna just cannibalize all of Algier's carries. But is the upside of Bijon enough for you to undo the opposite at any point or is he long gone by the.
Time he's gonna be long gone? But yes, new coaches Rahie Morrison and Zach Robinson, the offensive coordinator saying all the right things about Jon Robinson, how they want to really build an offense around him and utilize his special talents. We'd love to hear that talk is cheap in June, right, so you know we know talk is cheap in August. Well it is. Who's ever had a bad OTAs you know, other than Zach Wilson who apparently has been dreadful. But
you know it's they always say, guys look great. Now, we want to utilize this guy's, you know, best shape of.
His life, don't forget, best shape of his career.
The one I even love more is we're we're taking this insert insert position here. Let's just say running back, We're lining them up in the slot. Yeah, that stuff never pans out, never pans out in a meaningful way. It's all lies, you know. I I we think Bejon could be a special talent based what we saw in college. We saw a few flashes of it last year, but not consistently. Andy that was a very, very run heavy
offense that he was still playing. Now, granted we hated the usage and the the way that Arthur Smith ran that offense, but I still feel like there's I still feel like there's just too many good wide receivers. Am I going to pass by A J. Brown in the Eagles offense? No, No, I'm not going to. You're not for sure I'm not going to.
No.
In fact, there are the running backs I like more than Bejon Robbinson. So there's you know, not only is it to do the opposite thing, but also you know, I'm I think Jonathan Taylor is sitting on a tremendous season. We'll talk about him in a minute. So for me, I'm still a whole I'm still a whole round lower on Bjeon Robinson. I'm middle of the second round because I want more of the sure thing, sure thing receivers on my team.
Middle of the second rounds where you're considering b Jeon Robinson. All right, same rookie draft class. Jami Gibbs one of two running backs going off the board right at the first second round turn. He's going off right now at about pick twelve. Gibbs finished as RB nine last year, had twelve hundred total yards, scored eleven times. Dynamic and impressive in just so many ways, but he scored fewer touchdowns than his running mate David Montgomery and had about
forty fewer rushing attempts. He made up for it with fifty two catches to Monty's sixteen. So his ADP seems to dictate the fact that the fantasy community thinks he'll take so much of the workload from Montgomery this year. And I even hypot this, it's because Jamior Gibbs has a cool name and David is a boring name to say. So do you think do you think Gibbs gets more of a workhorse role this year? No?
I don't.
Is he's not the one to turn for you? Then? No, this is.
This is the easiest guy I'm gonna let slide. And I think you'll be stunned at how far I'm gonna let Jamiir give you go. Oh really, And it's not that he's he's great. Yeah, he's a great talent, But Montgomery steals all the easy touchdowns up close. Monty had nineteen carries just from inside the five yard line, and he converted half of those into touchdowns. This sounds like
Fantasy Football weeklies training inside. It's gonna it's gonna be coming your way, by the way, announcement coming on that in the next week. Okay, the way to a fantasy football training camp. Gibbs got half of the carries inside the five, half of the touchdowns. Guys who have to score from distance are a dangerous gamble. Oh yeah, and.
That's what all this is.
I mean Jamior Gibbs with an ADP of third, he's going at the first.
Pick of the second round. Yeah, and you're taking.
Somebody who has to score from distance. That's so dangerous. No way am I.
Doing caught out, It's dumb.
I'm I would take Gibbs at double his ADP. I'm looking at roughly pick thirty. In fact, I would rather have his teammates Sam Laporta before Jamiir Gibbs.
You're taking two lions above Jamiir Gibbs. I'm saying the third hour.
That's right.
The third lion Jonathan Taylor. You talked about him a little bit before. He's going at right about the turn as well, one two turn pick thirteen. Taylor missed a bunch of times with injury, a bunch of time with injuries in twenty twenty two and the first part of twenty three, where he spent the first four weeks on the pup list. He finished RB thirty three in total PPR points, but RB eleven in points per game. Yeah, he's two years removed from nearly twenty two hundred total
yards and twenty touchdowns. Wasn't that that was crazy? Through his last six game of twenty twenty three, he did score seven times. Yep, but that was two different runs of three games as he missed weeks thirteen through fifteen with injury. Anthony Richardson back from injury. That offense should improve, but will it improve enough for you to undo the opposite with Jonathan Taylor? And where?
Now? Now, this is a guy I'm interested in much closer to his ADP because there's nobody else take the ball from him at any time. There's no Zach Moss. There, there's no Zach Moss. Your back of his even hole. That's it. I mean this is they are gonna work tailor, and so I get the goal line back, I get the players gonna get the ball really all one hundred yards of the field. Indy had the sixth best run blocking offensive line last year by Pro Football Focus, the
eleventh best run block win rate by ESPN. I just I love I worry a little bit about the hell because he does have these nagging injuries which is, by the way, welcome to running backs, right, But I would take him much closer to ADP I've got him going out for me. I would take him at position twenty, so he's would you say, thirteen or fourteen. He's the second round, mid second round. So that's the point at which I'm really I'm interested in Taylor because I just
I like him. I like his opportunities so much.
And that'll probably vibe with some of how your do the opposite builds would be if Taylor were to last that long. Basically where you would pick in the fourth or fifth position, take a wide receiver. There, Jonathan Taylor's coming back to you in the second round.
Possibly, that's maybe right where I would blink on Taylor.
Okay, well that's half of them. Should we take a quick break.
Yeah, good call. Let's take a break and we come back. Saquon Barkley just going two picks later than Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, this one's not close. We'll talk about him when we come back. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Jargy and Matt Harrison Shock Fantasy. You've got a promo code for people who want to subscribe. It's just twenty five dollars for the whole year.
Yeah, FFW twenty twenty twenty four. I think it's in the show notes.
Tend the show notes in the show notes, go check it out the show here in the show notes. Check out our new discord a link to the discord channel. Join our conversations there. We're just discording today about some concerts that are starting to roll through town.
Yeah, there's a there's a couple of fun concerts this summer. I'm thinking about. Actually, one of my favorite bands is like from you know, the nineties, a SKO punk outfit called Less than Jake.
Yeah, I remember you liked it Less than Jake. And I think of one of the listeners, one of the we have a listener from that band or something, right, I don't know, maybe maybe, But they're doing a concert in Jamaica, Oh Boy, in January where they're playing at a resort four nights in a row.
It's an all inclusive resort. They're playing with bowling for soup as well. I don't you you'll you'd have heard some of their songs. Okay, but but four nights in a row, four concerts in a row.
For bands I love.
I would do that it's it's kind of I would do that. And my my oldest son who's in college, he's like, he's into this kind of music too, so he's like, Dad.
Let's go. The closest thing like that that's ever happened to me is a band that I A couple of bands that I love. There was a I like a genre called post rock, and there was a post rock cruise and they had like three four bands that I loved on the cruise and they're all performing constantly on the cruise ship, and I'm like, this would be awesome, but it was in football season. I couldn't go. That was it? All right, Let's get back to get back to our undoing. The opposite The next runner up is I.
Think we know where this is gonna go. Saquon Barkley, now a Philadelphia Eagle, is going off with the third pick in the second round, pick fifteen. Barkley finished at RB thirteen in a pretty horrible Giants offense last year, but he had over just over twelve hundred yards and he did it get ten scores. But he joins a Philly offense that has huge upside, but also the tush push is there. Eagles running backs only combined for eight
total touchdowns last year, the fifth fewest in the league. Well, Jalen Hurts had fifteen rushing scores.
Right, it's certainly gonna be one of my talking.
There's no doubt he has talent. But does the talent meet enough opportunity for you to undo the opposite for Saquon Barkley anywhere in the first three rounds, you are wrong about the talent. You don't think he has talent.
Saquon Barkley is cooked. Oh, let's put some numbers against it. He finished his Pro Football Focuses running back forty three. Overall, he ranked fifty fourth in elusiveness. He ranked thirtieth in rushing yards over expectation percentage according to Next Gen Stats. His quarterback is going to eat all the short touchdowns, and he doesn't catch like he used to, and Philadelphia
uses often a maddening time share. He had the advantage of the Giants of being on the field constantly that there's no such suggestion that's going to happen in Philadelphia. He could be sitting on a five touchdown season. I would much rather have the recently re upped Ramandre Stevenson. I would rather have Jonathan Brook. I'd rather have Zamir White. You know where those guys are.
Going, like RB fifteen to twenty, pick ninety.
Yeah, I am so far off Saquon Barkley. To me, we have to get to round eight. He is an adp of the middle of round two. I would take Saquon Barkley in round eight.
So if we're in a we're in a draft and there's a bunch of cloned charges in this draft that I'll carry your same draft strategy, and Saquon's there in the sixth round, you're still not taking him.
I would take the four running backs. They just meant three running backs I just mentioned before. I would take him. So, no, I'm so far off of Saquon.
I love it. I love Do you see it differently? No, I absolutely love the strong take. I look forward to all these preseason shows where you're trashing Saquon and.
We'll find out if I'm right or wrong about this. But man, he to me, he looks he looks cooked.
He might be all right.
Who's our next running Uh?
You know a guy we talked about a little bit in the preseason less year Brian Johnson special that was Kyron Williams. He delivered in a major way. Right now, he's going late second pick twenty two. Williams finished as RB seven, had exactly thirteen fifty total yards and fifteen scores in only twelve games.
I was gonna say by Fantasy points per game, Kyroen might.
Have been RB two RB two in points per game. Williams was absolutely money when he was on the field. He only had two games all year where he finished with fewer than fourteen PPR points. He missed five weeks in the middle of your season, but if you survive that, he probably won you a title with big games in all of the Fantasy playoff weeks, including three scorers in Week seventeen. Now, Kyrien was a bellcal last year out
of necessity. The Rams had no other halfway decent runners on the roster, and he's not heavily involved in the passing game. He had only thirty two receptions, which was twenty eight The monkst running backs in the Rams. They brought in Blake Korum in the drafts. His Korum and the mid season injury enough to scare you off of Kyron Williams in the first three rounds. Or was you undo the opposite.
This is the hardest one yet, this is brutal. So it's the end of the second round. Here's Kyrien Williams. I'm looking at a guy who was RB two in point Fantasy points per game was last year just him catching lightning in a bottle, aided by the fact they had zero competition, nobody else with worth a damn in
that backfield. Then they go out and they put real draft equity into Blake corm Since Todd Gurley, Sean McVay has almost never used a workhorse back until last year when he had to because there were no other good backs, you know, between Gurley and Willian it did. It ended Todd Gurley's career early. I think McVeigh knows that it's always been a rotational backfield for Sean McVay between those, you know, in the four seasons between those two events.
So I don't trust Kyrien Williams to get the big workhorse. But the other part of it, that's that that that makes this hard. William's pretty dark good. He finished sixth in total rushing yards over expectation, seventh in rushing yards over expectation per carry, tenth in rushing yards over expectation percentage he finished. His pro football focuses AREB three ranked overall, fifteenth and elusiveness. This is you know, this is where
this is about where Kyrien Williams belongs. I might go a half round later so I can get some tight ends. I loved Laporta, Kelsey McBride and get an a lead tight end. I still want Jalen Hurts. I want all those rushing, those free rushing touchdowns. I think those are the group that I would take sooner. They're half round later. So Kyron Williams is very close to I think going correctly even in a due the opposite mindset. But I'd still wait half.
Around so because he's a late second round pick, and at that turn there you'd be going, I have an early third. Let's hope he gets back.
Let's hope he gets back to me.
Okay, I want to see what you think about Devon ah Chain here. He might be the most polarizing player in the first two rounds. Currently going off with the last pick in the second round, pick twenty four. Last year, a Chane only played eleven games, finished RB twenty five, but more importantly finished RB four In PPR points per game? Do you know who was RB three in PPR points per game? Moster Raheem moster Ah Chain had just under
a thousand total yards and scored eleven times. But when you factor in that his first real action in week three, he scored four times and had two hundred and thirty three of those.
Yards, by the way, which nobody started him for that gamer? Yeap, so about a quarter of his production came in one game when nobody had him and nobody.
Had him in the lineups. Moster, by the way, led the league in rushing scores last year with eighteen added three more through the air, and he's going off at pick ninety two RB thirty.
Hell so he's my do the opposite target. Yeah, that's the that's the show we should follow up with. Yeah, or who are the running backs you're taking in rounds five, six, seven, eight? We can do that in a couple of weeks.
Let's do that shit. The fantasy world seems to think that a chan's taking most, if not all, of most production. Apparently, yes, is the upside of a chane worthy of a late second to early third or how late does he have to fall for you to take him?
And most of it is older. I think he's thirty. Yeah, and so maybe not a lot of mileage, very low mileage because he's been dinged up. He was under used for a long time. So a Chan's an electric runner for sure. He averaged almost eight yards per carry, which is insane. He ranked number one in rushing yards over expectation last year two point nine rushing yards per carry over expectation. Wow, more than double the next closest player.
Crazy.
It is crazy. The next closest Christian McCaffrey, at one point three yards over expectation. He posted two point nine. He missed six games last year, after which, after he missed that big block of games in the middle of the season, Mike McDaniel seemed pretty gun shy about using a Chan as much, giving him only ten carries per game. Okay, and that's that where he me a little bit. Miami's got the league's muddiest backfield. You mentioned moster, but let's
not forget thorn in your side. Guys like Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed and now fourth round rookie Jalen Wright is in this mix too. I mean, that's real draft equity. They have to get they need to get Jalen right out of the field too, but that's the lead.
Well, not only that, but their wide receivers have such a low a dot on so many of these things that they catch the ball a short distance from the line. It's that PPR yardage for him.
In best ball, you know, in best ball specifically, I think you can justify this end of the second round ADP for those blow up games. Yeah, I think in any other format, end of the second round for a chan is absurd. Isaiah Pacheco gets is exactly double eight chans ADP at pick forty eight. I'd rather have Pacheco for all the safety. I know he's going to get the vast majority of the work on a very good offense.
Similarly good offense. So you're looking he's picked for eight, that's double eight chance.
So you're looking fifth round minimum.
This is the last pick of fourth round. So I'd rather have Pachecko. He's the last pick of the fourth round. So I guess I'm saying fifth round on David Devon a hand.
All right, out of here, get out of here. Travis Eten currently going off at pick twenty seven in the third round in his rookie campaign, he averaged five point one yards per carry. That number crash down to three point eight last year, but he did have twelve total scores in close to fifteen hundred total yards in just a workhorse role. That was good enough to make him RB three in total PPR points and was pretty consistent.
He has played all seventeen games in both seasons, after missing the entirety of his twenty twenty one draft year with an injury. Last year, he had double digit PPR points in twelve games. He had three or more receptions in all but three, and he scored in half the games. You started him man with four multi score efforts. By the way, Tank Bigsby, which was your guy last year. Yeah, scored in the first two games. I know that never again. I never saw the field again. Disappeared. Yeah, that was
that was bad think. I think he had like thirty carries in the final fifteen games.
I don't have my tanks for nothing.
You have a sad trombone ski. I do sure.
I feel like I had half of this right, I had half of that equation right. I didn't trust Travis Etn to be a workhorse runner, and he wasn't I thought it would go right to Bigsby as the backup. Now, in fairness, Etn started the season really well, but then he faded pretty badly because he's just not built to be a work horse. He finished the season averaging three point eight yards per carry. That is dreadful. He finished thirty sixth in rushing Over expectation, he topped fifty seven
rushing yards. Fifty seven rushing yards is not a lot. He topped fifty seven rushing yards in five of his seventeen games. That's all. Doug Peterson says he wants to rely less on Etn, and he's talking up Tank Bigsby.
I'm not gonna time.
I mean, there's nothing I'm gonna say that's gonna make anybody believe in Tank Bigsby. So not gonna try in round three, which is where Travis Etn is going, I can get a sure thing wide receiver, and get a shirt thing quarterback, and get a sure thing tight end. I would take Etn round five roughly double his ADP. I'm not a I wasn't a believer last year. I think he his productivity was just him being a functional running back who got almost all the work in his offense.
That really was it. It was just opportunity, that's.
All it was. I don't think he's a special back.
All right. Uh you know one of the more special backs in in maybe the last decade, Derrick Henry. He's an old face in a new place. He joins the Baltimore Ravens through free agency. In those all purple uniforms, he might look a little bit like Grimace. Yeah, he's currently going off the board in the middle of the third round.
McDonald's phased Grimace out.
Oh have you heard about the Mets and Grimace? The New York Mets. No, Like they had Grimace throughout the first pitch at a game like like two weeks ago, and the Mets have like lost one game since then. He's in good luck so that like all the Mets fans are converting to the Church of Grimace. That's awesome.
I love it. I love it.
So with Derek Henry, you pretty much know what this state in his career that he offers nothing in the passing game. So it's much more impressive that he finished as RB twelve and PPR points. He posted just under fourteen hundred total yards and twelve scores all of his touchdowns were on the ground. Henry has posted double digit rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons. What makes that more
impressive is he only played eight games in twenty twenty one. Wow, he joins a Baltimore team and you know, might bring just a completely different dimension to Lamar Jackson in that offense. He's six y three, two hundred and forty seven pounds, but he's thirty years old and he's average twenty carries per game for the last six years Straight's.
A lot of mileage. And remember he didn't early in his career. He was lightly used for those first couples. Yeah, and been then since then, it's just pounding him in.
It was it DeMarco Murray.
This done.
He only had really one injury in all of those years.
All the eight are so amazing.
Yeah, but Kenn's body hold up to the punishment after age thirty touchdown upside absolutely tremendous. I think when we talked about the AFC UH North in our in our preview podcast, you were like, would it surprise you of Derrick Henry was the highest rushing touchdown getter of this season.
No, not at all, not at all.
But in the third round middle third. Are you taking Derrick Henry in a DTO draft strategy?
This one is also a little bit tricky unless Keaton Mitchell recovers quickly and gets back to being as elusive as he was, which is hard to do off the ACL That was what made Keaton Mitchell explosive SIV was how hard it was to get a clean hit on him. Probably isn't gonna have there and.
They're talking about him midseason. Yeah, like toplist almost for sure.
Right, So Keith Mitchell doesn't look like a factor, just as Hill's just a guy.
Yeah.
So the opportunity in Baltimore's high over the past three seasons, Baltimore's top top six and rushes from inside the five and running play percentage from inside the five, there's gonna be a lot of goal line opportunities. And of course, over the past three years, as you would guess, Derrick Henry leads all rushers in goal line touchdowns. You know who leads all players in goal line touchdowns the last three years?
This is Lamar Jackson.
He actually doesn't get many carries at all.
I suppose he doesn't.
Yeah, the right idea?
Is it hurts? Right?
It is? Yes, Jalen Hurts sixty one.
Yeah, sixty one.
By the way, Jalen Hurts starts, we're talking ADP a little bit. Jalen Hurts right now is going off the board at pick du picked twenty six.
I think it's because I believe he only had fifteen pass touchdowns last year.
I just I think the Eagles are gonna bounce back in a big way.
Probably.
I think I think they're bad coaching, some bad injuries, some bad luck, and I think they're a bounce back anyway. I'm not I'm intrigued by Henry, but he hurts you. He hurts you obviously in a PPR league where he doesn't give you any of that, He's gonna give you some dud games when he doesn't score. Yeah, that's coming, you know. So if he doesn't score, he's gonna get some games where he has sixteen carries for thirty eight yards,
chips in nothing through the air. He's gonna give you some He's gonna give you some bummer games, unfortunately, but the touchdown upside is very real. It wouldn't surprise me if he scored in two thirds of his games this year, right, and a couple of those will be multiple.
Touchdown you look, you're looking at a projected twelve to fifteen touchdowns maybe yep, on the high end.
So currently going middle of round three, I think the place where I would I would bend my do the opposite tendencies for Derrick Henry would be roughly after my shirting quarterbacks. To me, that's Alan and Hurts are gone. My top three tight ends who we love, right, you got Laporta, you got Kelsey and McBride. Okay, although it's deeper in tight ends this year than it has been forever. All Right, that's a stop topic for a future show.
By the way, it sure is. Oh, you don't have to panic on tight ends for for a long time.
I actually think there's five tight ends, and I don't want anything to do with anybody after that.
Okay, all right, so right, we'll talk about that. I think there's gonna be guys like Jake Ferguson. They're gonna work out. That's just me. The area where I'm interested in taking Derrick Henry is in this part of my draft, DK Metcalf, DeVante Smith, Ken Walker, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews. This is the area that feels about.
Right, that's about where Derrick Henry's going.
That's round four. So that's that's where I like him, and that's about where I would take him, I think. So just a couple picks, Ye, I'm about I'm about a half round or around half lower than Henry. Now in a guillotine league, beware because he's gonna those dud games from Henry. Those are gonna get you cut.
Yeah, I mean, and and you don't have the PPR aspect to booye you there, so he's got to get you the touchdowns, got to get you the touch So do do you think Derek Henry in a guillotine league drops to like fourth or fifth round or are people nuts enough to go I'm gonna take him in the second round.
I think there's still enough newbies out there that don't understand the nuances of the format well enough that he's gonna he's gonna go earlier than he should.
Especially with eighteen team leagues.
Eighteen team leagues, and that's when the running back panic is so real in an eighteen team league, when people are looking at if I don't take a running back in the first two rounds and you know by the time now it's back to me, right, it's you know, now what am I gonna do? Meanwhile, I'll be like Zamir White, bring it on charge when to undo the Opposite? Did you have any real problems with any of my takes on this? No, this is pretty out of the odd way, out of lockstep with the norm.
You know, I thought it would be good for the listeners to hear you mister do the opposite himself, go hey, where would I take these guys? So I think it's an interesting exercise for us, and I do like the idea of doing my do the Opposite running back targets in a future show where we can go, you know guys in rounds four through seven?
Yeah, yeah, who hound on the table for That's the whole premise of do the Opposite is go hit those running backs in the middle rounds. That's that's where last year's top ten came out of. Yeah, you know it's Christian McCaffrey and then most of the US are running backs that ended up his top ten running backs for round four, round six, round eight. So yeah, we'll go mind those rounds? Is uh? I want to mention this.
We alluded to this just briefly, Ramondre Stevenson got a hefty, pretty solid good new deal yeah Thursday with the Patriots. I'm team Ramandre. I think he's a really good running back who got used weirdly and poorly last year on a totally dysfunctional offense. Yeah, I'm optimistic that Remandre is going to come back. He's perfect do the opposite candidate.
Let me let me see if I can find where he's going off the board right now, he is currently going off the board Pick sixty three, running back twenty. This is perfect for do the Opposite. I get a workhorse back on an offense that almost has to get better, right it kick it worse? Not that it was last year. That was mac Jones.
It can't get Bailey. No, no, it could be the same.
No, it can't be the same.
It could be the same. It can't be.
Kobet and Drake May. If Drake May is good enough to be better than Jacoby Brissett.
Yeah, those guys they probably do it just enough.
They I think, you know, their abilities alone will raise the bar for Ramandri Stevenson. I think I love him as a value pick at selection sixty three running back twenty exactly.
All right, you're talking fish Bowl with mister Scott fish next.
Next week, Scott fish Ball. I want to talk about the nuances of this year's scoring system. Every year I saw it gets more complicated. I got to try to keep up with all the all the very and changes. We got a bunch of first down scoring yep, built in this year. And yeah, we'll talk through what to do with your Scott fish Bowl team.
I'd like to mention one thing too on that Scott fish Bowl and Fantasy Cares aspect League Safe, something near and dear to your heart.
I'm familiar.
You can now make donations straight from League Safe too, Fantasy Cares. You can round up your bill to get in, your leak fee to get in, or choose to do a dollar or five dollars or ten dollars, the cool one hundred dollars if you want. But all the donations go straight to Fantasy Cares. And we at Leak Safe we got a goal of ten thousand dollars and we're already I mean we're in June right now, and I think we're already we're already at like almost two thousand bucks.
So wow, we're feeling pretty good. We might have to up our goal a little bit.
You might wind up your goal, yeah, but ten thousand's great. I need you to stay under like seven two hundred because that's what our super chop Scott fish bols super chop. So I need you to stand her there.
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All right, thanks for listening, everybody. We'll talk to you next week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.