Too Many Chiefs In The Kitchen?

voice intros for our for our show? I think this one was a guy named Miguel Okay, I think really Yeah? Do you think it has a good job? Yeah, he does. He does a great job. I just wonder if that's his real voice. Hey, can you make me some pancakes? At which point you go, yes, I kind of make you pancakes. That's uh. We can all get into the smooth voice so you know, Um, I can't do it as well right now, but just because I just did

three hours of radio, but I can IF voice. I can do FM voice if I need to, but I'm not gonna do it right now. All right, let's we got a bunch of stuff to get to now, because our last several shows. Last four shows were all about breaking down all the teams in the NFL from a fantasy standpoint, and then we had our COVID show. This is our first time to catch up on news from around the league. So I want to really orient today's discussion around some of the bigger topics of the past

month or so. And um, just sit on a few of these things, and then um and also at the end, this isn't necessarily new news, but I've been fascinated but the by the idea of a starting backfield of Clyde Edwards Hilaire and Damian Williams, and you just you start those two chief running backs every week, but they're by week You're you're fascinated by idea. I am, So we'll we'll we'll look into the viability of that strategy a little later in the show. Let's start here with more

recent news. Derrick Henry signs a four year extension and by the way, brilliant on his part. When you look at all of the players that are coming into free agency next year, Alvin Kamarin, Dalvin Cook, and it's of course they all on deals done too, they do. But Henry was smart enough to get. There's a good deal. It's not bad deal. He took twenty five million and guaranteed money fifty million dollar upside if he plays through the whole contract, and he doesn't have to sweat being

one of a dozen meaningful running back free agents. And I'm not kidding, there's a dozen guys coming. Yeah. And the nice part is it's also a team friendly contract really because there is a potential out in two with the dead cap of only six million for those final two seasons of the deal. So it it's if if his knee explodes in the next year or two, the

Titans can get out of it scott free. And if if Derrick Henry performs, he's going to get paid some decent money where he at fifteen million each for those last two years. So I think it's a good deal for everyone around right there. You know, there's some people who feel like, well, they could have paid Jack conkle in their star tackle or Derrick Henry. I don't that's you know, in this world, tackles are a lot more

valuable than running backs. Derrick Henry is pretty special. But man, I don't know that that's the choice I would have made for the Titans. But it's let's talk about Derrick Henry's fantasy value. Let's start with redraft. How do you feel does this and does this signing in any way change this year's No, because I think everybody in redraft leagues they knew Derrick Henry wasn't making any noise. There

was no holdout speculation on him. Everybody knew that he was going to run into this year as as the lead back there. So I don't think it changes anything at all from a redraft person. Now, you spent a lot of your time on Dynasty and Empire League related matters. You've got the best cheat sheet in existence for Dynasty and Empire players of trade values and all kinds of stuff. So let's look a lot more long term and let's

talk about this Henry deal. For those people that own Henry or maybe are interested investing in Henry, how do you feel like this changes his his value for Dynasty and Empire League owners. For Derrick Henry, I mean I'm gonna bump him up a little bit. Um. I currently have him as tied for running back eight with a few guys who are on a little bit longer contracts and are a little bit younger Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders.

So he's right in that neighborhood, but I'll probably bump him up above them, and he's going to be in the right between Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara. You know, the fact that he just doesn't catch passes to me just caps his upside. He can never be the top running back, of the top two or top three, because those guys just he's the Adrian Peterson. Yeah he is. I mean he really is. And and he he runs with violence. He runs with Vim and Vigor. Yes, they

always go together, don't they. Nobody runs with Vim without also running with Vigor. I think with Vigor without Vim, though, I think you can have Viggers got it way better you're not attached to vim um. I saw this stat that blew me away regarding Derrick Henry. Once Ryan Tannehill took over last year, the Titans averaged seven and a half yards per play, most in the His line was the last twenty years of the NFL, going back to

two thousand. That's unbelievable. And they started handing off to Terry Henry, and Henry is obviously a huge part of that, right you know, when you're running back is getting you chunk yardage of five and eight and twenty yards and carry, it certainly helps. So brief aside on that, who is the offensive coordinator that essentially ruined his value for the first two three years of his career. Not Mike mclarkey. That was Uh, he's currently a head coach right in

the Packers, Matt La Matt Lafleur. Yeah, I think that Aaron Jones is kind of in the market for the same aggression this year. But other people would say, look at Aaron Jones had last year in r Matt la floor. But Matt, Aaron Jones is one of my my biggest fades this fantasy season. I really worry about what A J. Dillon is going to do to him, especially near the stripes. So much of the fantasy value that Aaron Jones had was because they used him a lot near the stripe.

If those go away his and he's just now he's in and now he's in a three person time share. Yeah, and Jamal Williams wasn't the guy they were handing off in the five too, So it was all Aaron Jones was. A J. Dillon is two hundred fifty pounds. He's as big as Derrick Henry. Yes, he's Derrick Henry. It's it's bonkers what he's gonna be like. So, uh, I think for me Derrick Henry also, I love him in this offense. I like the way they want to use him here. Um,

and it's it's a proven commodity. If Derrick Henry had hit free agency next year, he could have ended up anywhere and maybe, you know, maybe into a time himeshare role. Who knows. Here he remains one of the few locked in workhorse backs for the remainder of his contract. In all probability, it's pretty nice consistency, that's for sure. It definitely is. All right, So we're high on on Derrick Henry. I want to touch on this as well before we

jump into uh some other matters. Dak Prescott is has let the uh the deadline to sign a guess he could always sign a new deal, but um, he's let the deadline pass. He's gonna pay the play this year as a as a under the franchise tag and will probably enter next year. People assume enter next year as a free agent, and the team could refranchise him again. At that point, So he's heading down the Kirk Cousins path. Do you think is there any real scenario here where

Dak ends up missing, doesn't play. Is there a scenario here where he just this season he just goes stop, mom out. Well, I'm gonna hold out until I get my You know, he turned out a hundred million dollar deal. He turned on a hundred and seventy five million dollar deal. I saw that was worth a hundred and ten and guaranteed me on a five year deal. Now he is on the franchise tag and I don't know how this works.

But according to spot track, yeah, um who, I think most of my contract information from his cap hit of thirty one point four million this year under the franchise tag makes him the highest paid player in the NFL this year. But according to them, so if he's if he's not going to play this year as the highest

paid player in the NFL, what is he doing? Yeah, when push comes to show, the players want their game checks, and at that level of game checks, when you're making two million dollars a game, sure, yeah, you're gonna show up for those games. Don't think you will? I think you will too. Now I also saw this that was interesting about Dak. If they have to refranchise him next year, the thirty one and a half a million only goes only goes to thirty eight million. Year after that it

explodes to like fifty million or something. Um. So it could be that they he gets the franchise take twice just like Kirk did. It could be, could be, We'll see it's Dak remains my quarterback number three. Is a your quarterback three or four? I think I have him at three or four one of the two. I'm probably more on the three bandwagon. I'm pretty on the on the Dack thing. Seed. I love Ceedee Lamb and once they picked Seed. Once Ceedee Lamb was on that team,

Like that's at these three. Yeah, Dak and c d are on my Scott Fish Bowl roster. I'm pretty pleased about that. I bet you are. I'm jealous of that. As a matter of fact, let's take a quick break, Matt. When we come back, I want to talk about Cam Newton. I'm contending no fantasy quarterback has a bigger variance impossible outcomes than Cam Newton. Will touch on him. When we returned to Fantasy Football Weekly, Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly,

Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison with you. Cam Newton replaces Tom Brady obviously in New England. I believe, as I said going into the break, no play, no quarterback has more variance impossible outcome than Cam Newton. He could lose the job outright, We're not We don't know for sure before the season starts. It costs the team nothink him. They literally, I don't think they would. He's an ideal backup and he's cheap, but he may not even be the starter. There's a slim but non zero chance that

he gets beaten out by him. Man, it's I don't know where he is as a passer, but what we do know is he's only four seasons removed from being the best fantasy player in the league. Um. When he's a running quarterback, he's awfully good. So what what are your thoughts in Cam Newton? You with me on the upside and downside that he can that he can bring,

and what's your strategy if any, on selecting it. So I'm I'm with you on on the on the variants, and but Bill Belichick obviously saw something that he likes that and I got a few stats to dig into this might might help us make this decision. As you mentioned, was his huge year. Um, He's never hit four thousand and passing yards in a season though. Yeah, it's kind

of surprising for a quarterback of his MP stature. He was an m v P one year, never once and and a lot of guys hit four thousand yards every year. Jake Cutler was a four thousand. It's it's pretty easy mark to hit. He's had only one season of more than twenty four touchdown passes UM. That was again when he threw thirty five and last year, by the way, fourteen quarterbacks through touchdown passes or more. It's not that high.

It's not that high marks. It's easy. Now I'm gonna I'm gonna jump in because I have a stat that is right into the same wheelhouse that you're in. If I looked at his past three full seasons for Cam Newton, his average game two hundred thirty one passing yards and one point four passing touchdowns. That is exactly Andy Dalton. So when you draft Cam Newton's arm, you are getting Andy Dalton's arm. Yeah. Um, I guess the the interesting thing that I think that Belichick saw was his teen season,

the last season he was mostly healthy. Um, that was an outlier in one category specifically for Cam, and that was completion percentage. He almost completed sixty eight percent of his balls. That right, that's a really good number. He never topped more than sixty one and a half the rest of his career, so he really rocketed up the completion percentage. That coincided with Christian McCaffrey grabbing a hundred and seven passes. Does this make you think a little

bit about James White? He's absolutely becomes very serviceable. I think James White becomes really really interesting in these leagues. But really, you're buying Camp for his rushing ability. Yes you are. How comfortable are you in investing in a thirty one year old running back? Chart? Um? Most running backs, I'm not comfortable old. How about when they're coming off a sgnificant injury well through and yep, that's that is absolutely fair. Cam did record four eight rushing yards and

four rushing tds age twenty nine season. Let's say the Pats can magically get seventy of that. Yeah. Uh, that's three sixty six yards and three scores. That's about what Russell Wilson had last year, and people do pay for the Russell Wilson. But Russell Wilson's got way more passing upside, way more passing. So I think the long and short of this is, I think Cam just finishes as the middle of the pack quarterback. He's got, He's got the

upside variants, he's got the downside variants. He's gonna finish his quarterback seventeen on the year, and I think everybody's almost exactly ranked right now, go back sixteen here, let me give you another scenario where Cam can hit the upside. Your Belichick, You've watched what Baltimore has done with Lamar Jackson running in with abandoned, and you know that Cam can still run. It's just the last several seasons teams he's and hurt, and the teams of consciously Panthers constantly

chose not to have him run as much. Do I want to keep him healthy? But does Belichick have a motivation to keep him healthy the same way. It's not a one year deal that cost him nothing, so Belichick might just figure I'm gonna run him for sixteen games and if he makes it and it helps us win, fine, and if it doesn't, who cares. I'll do it doesn't cost me anything, and I'll go to Jared' Stidham. It could go that way. Belichick might just figure I'll run him and just see how long it lasts and maybe

all the way to the super Bowl. I don't know. There's I think there is there is I think upside for that. Um, your worst case scenario we've already documented. He could get benched Andy Dalton, who you know we said he's and he's Andy Dalton is a phassor Andy don't got bench last year? And keep in mind Camp has been a sub five quarterback in six of his nine seasons. Subid Belichick may not stand for that. Wins. Just talk about wins. That's right. So, um, here's where

here's the drafting strategy for me. I love Cams my second quarterback. Yeah, oh, because you get you get all the upside and none of the risk. So I'm willing to take Cam around before a DP if I've already got a quarterback. Okay, And so regardless of where I took that first quarterback, although if I took Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, I'm probably not gonna waste what would have to be ultimately about a ninth or tenth round pick

to go get Cam. But you know, if I if I let that quarterback position slide and I'm taking my you know, my number ten rand quarterback and round seven, I'd come back in round nine for Cam. Now, I think it'll be interesting to see where his ADP kind of falls as we get into mid delay at August, because there are a lot of Patriots fans that might bump up his value. They see that he's with Belichick and Josh McDaniels over there, and and we're really gonna

bump up this value. Does does he sneak into like the top twelve is ADP quarterbacks? You might? I think he might by the by the end of this. So I don't think you're going to get him as a second quarterback in a lot of cases. And if you're not getting him as a second quarterback, I'm probably letting him pass fantasy. If it's any indication right now in late July seasons, getting close the drafts I'm in, nobody wants the other Patriots. It's like they're still in the

Precam mindset. We just got done with the scott Fish Bowl. Jay I got James White in the eighth round of the scott Fish Bowl. Eighth round, A guy who's been a top twenty handcuffs Sony Michelle. Didn't you god know? Nikkil? Harry is um, I'm I'm doing this upcome Nikkill. Harry went somewhere in the neighborhood of round fifteen. Julian Edelman

went somewhere in the neighborhood of round eight nine. It seems like people haven't figured out even if you even if you acknowledge the cam's there and he's a massive improvement over Jared Stidham. I don't hear anybody taken. I don't. I just it doesn't. It doesn't seem like the ADP has moved accordingly for the rest of the Patriots. No, and I think the ADP for for the Patriots has just remained low. And I mean when we started the draft,

we weren't quite on the Cam bandwagon yet. So right, all right, final segment for this podcast, Paul Charging and Matt Harrison with you. I am fascinated by a starting backfield of Clyde Edwards, A Laire and Damian Williams. Let's start with this. So obviously you're getting the two chiefs running back. So we think you give me all the positives here because I'm gonna come with the Okay, I'm

fascinated by it. Here's here's why. First I got we think the timeshare is gonna be somewhere sixty one way or the other. Okay, does that seem fair? It seems fairish sixty, you know, and I I think it'll insert Darwin Thompson like, hey, we're not fall for that again. Remember excited we were for Darwin Thompson in the preseason. Dwayne Washington's like, what's going on right? Um, it's gonna

be sixty? You don't, you don't. The part of the beauty of this is I don't need to know who's gonna be sixty and who's gonna be forty because I got both guys and together they're gonna get close to one of the work. The other guys should not be any kind of significant factor here. So here's let's start with this. And the most important thing is what is it gonna cost you to get Clyde Edwards Hilaire and

Damian Williams. It's gonna cost you a third round pick for Clyde, it's gonna cost you an eighth round pick for Damian Williams, who, by the way, it's gonna be the starter on week one. Okay, I mean you know, for all the things that are that are working against rookies here in this offseason and this preseason, I think there's a nine chance Damian Williams is gets the majority of the work in the beginning of the season. Eighth round pick. So I'm I'm gonna start both guys as

my starters. So that means now available to me matt is my first round pick, my second round pick, my fourth, my fifth, my six, and my seventh to not be running backs. Those picks can be other stuff. That means of other stuff I love. Who doesn't love other stuff? That's the next Oreo. They should make other stuff. They could anything. No, they got every variation of Oreo possible, but not other stuff. But the big question mark on the package, that's right, that's it's the sawdust they swept

from under the factory floor. Um So now my first round pick I can go. I can go wide receivers, I can go tight ends. I've got all this these other picks. I could even go other running backs. If I wanted to, with the intention of still starting Clyde Edwards, Hiller and Damian Williams, I could still work in another running back or two. Now in how would it work if if I'm if I'm really bundling the two the one A and the one B running backs from the Chiefs,

what am I getting? Well, this is the best offense in football in two seasons under Patrick Mahomes. These are Patrick Mahomes starts. The Chiefs average day staggering thirty three points per game. Keep in mind the NFL average over the as two years is twenty one, so basically getting two extra touchdowns into your scoring. In rushing touchdowns scored, the Chiefs were third last year their fourth year before, so you're getting You're getting top tier production from the

running backs in terms of touchdowns. In the Homes era, running backs are averaging over one and a half touchdowns per game over one and a half, So that means in a typical week, I'm getting a touchdown out of one and in the next week, I'm getting a touchdown out of each one, or I'm getting two combined touchdowns. That's pretty good production out of my third and eighth round pick a running back. Now, both Clyde Edwards Hilaire

and Williams are elite level pass catchers. And I'll remind listeners two years ago Kareem Hunt, in the eleven games that he played before he went dumbass, he caught he caught seven touchdowns, caught seven. So if I had those seven in with the one and a half touchdowns per game that we were getting before of rushing touchdowns, these two running backs are going to average two touchdowns a game between them. Fatsy elite running back production right now? Yes,

it is. If you have one running back position you're using in your starting lineup. To do it, you gotta use two though. You have to use both of your running back starting slots on these guys, and that means I don't get to have a second running back in play. That's the thing. But or you're taking these two guys, you're combining them together. They're fantastic running back, right Yeah, Well,

but you gotta take two touchdowns. You gotta take those two guys and put them into two starting spots where if I get a bell cow back in the first two rounds or the first three rounds, I slot him into one of my running back spots, and then I still have an extra running back spot where I can start and get gravy from anybody else. So here you want the negatives, bring it on, although I want to

I'd like to respond to that too. Okay, go for it. Okay, So you're you're suggesting Dalvin Cook, for example, is my first round pick? The beauty of my system is with Clyde Edwards, Laer and Damian Williams. Is I just drafted Michael Thomas or Davante Adams? You know, you know I've got I've got Michael Thomas on my team, don't you do? Get to use your draft picks for other things, But when it comes down to your starting lineup, you're taking

a roster spot out of your starting lineup. By starting two Chiefs running backs, I'm contending to get their they're both effectively RB one's combined. Ahead, Let's bring it on. Bring some more perfect right? Okay? Good? How many times in the last four years have two running backs from the same team finished in the top twenty four? And now it's time for a guessing game chart. Here we go. In two thousand nineteen, we had one pair of running backs finish in the top twenty four, because you want

two top twenty four running backs. They're both starting running back worthy for last year. If if I can just use the second half of the season, I know both Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb were top twenty four while they were while once Kareem Monk got off suspension. Okay, but I'm sure that's the answer to this. You're asking me for a full season, all right, I don't Melvin Gordon ast Neckler, that is correct? Ding ding? Do we have a ding ding on there? There? We get the duck.

Uh Eckler finished seventh, Gordon finished In two thousand eighteen, there was one pair of running backs who both finished in the top twenty four. You're not gonna get it, no, all right, tell me the Chicago Bears duo of Tariko and at number seventeen and Jordan Howard. In two thousand seventeen we had three sets. That was the most successful year by far of the last four. Okay, can you guess any of those well history now years you can get and you can get a couple of these. Um

uh NFC South, NFC South Okay? Oh? Was it Freeman and uh it was it Freeman and Coleman? Coleman was one of Okay, Freeman finished twelfth, Coleman, Alvin Kamara and Market finished four and six. How did they? Yeah, Okay, you surprised they didn't hit that two years ago. That Freeman camera weren't in two years ago? Okay. And then and then shocking the Vikings the duo of Littavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon four now, okay now, and and then

in one pair again it was the Falcons again. I would say, all right, list to the teams, just the teams that you just said for all these pairs of running your backs that finished in the top twenty four, the Chargers and the Bears, and the Saints and Atlanta, the Vikings, do I think the Chiefs are a lot better than all those. The Chiefs are awesome. There's a lot of Chiefs. There's a lot of touchdowns. There's a

lot of touchdowns go around. In four years with thirty two teams in the league, that's a hundred and twenty eight chances for running back due to finish in the top seven times. It has done six times, success rate of four point six pc. I just think the chiefs are special enough that they can do that. They they're definitely special enough that they can That doesn't mean that

you should do what you're thinking about doing. Don't you just want to get one to run away with this job and feel confident that's the other and one of them running away with the job. I don't mind having both on my team. It's gonna be really difficult for me to go into a draft and going, I'm getting

these two. Let's play this out. Okay. So let's say, either through injury or incompetence, one of them breaks away from the other one and this thing turns into an eight instead of you can't really start the other one. Can I find a running back? Is it impossible to get a running back? Am I gonna? You know, if I'm gonna If I'm gonna execute this plan as I mentioned before, You're gonna have a first and fourth, first and second and fourth, fifth, six and seventh round picks.

One of those might be another running back. And then after that, after the eighth round, I'm gonna, you know, throw a bunch of picks at running back again. Can't I be seeing that in the waiver wire? Can't I find me going back. I don't mind the handcuff of

the Chiefs backs. What I do mind is the forethought of going into your draft going I'm getting these two Chiefs backs that I'm sluffing the rest of the position and not thinking about it and starting these two and going everywhere else with it with all my other picks. I want some safety. I want a little bit of insurance to back this up. What if Mahomes goes down? What if that what if that offense goes upside down?

If Mahomes goes down and he did go down for a couple of games last year, That's something that's pretty nerve racking to me because I have two guys that are tied to two positions on my team, him and if another guy who's completely separate goes belly up, it might torpedo all of my value. I think I could say that about almost every right back, that they're all in trouble when their quarterbacks down. But I guess you double you double the risk, and I'll give you this.

You didn't bring this up. What if Covid sweeps through the Chiefs lock. I was going to mention that that's a Williams and Clyde stay in separate running back rooms throughout the air. Probably not PLEXI glass them apart. You know that to me is to me, that's as big a risk as anything of the Edwards A layer Williams strategy. Is that right, there could be trouble. I hope not. I want to execute this. By the way, I think way x easier to execute this plan in a draft

than an auction. Here's why. In an auction, when you somebody's gonna throw out Clyde Edwards a laire pretty or leaks, it's gonna you know, I think he's gonna be a hot pick and people are gonna want to throw them out, So you go get when you, Matt, go get Clyde Edwards a layer. And then I hear you bidding on Damien Williams. Why you see through this strata of g in a second, if you're gonna if you're gonna go in with that strategy, you need to get Damian Williams first.

I think you do need to get him first. And people might still bid you up on Clyde Edwards a layer at that point, but you could back out and it doesn't cost you that much. How about this charge? Um, I know guillotine leagues are a whole another beast because they're seventeen team drafts. Would you feel comfortable You'd have to probably draft Clyde in the second round and it would probably increase Damien Williams to like the sixth maybe

probably because it's seventeen teams. Yes, Clyde is going to go on the side. Would you feel comfortable using this strategy and a guillotine league? Less comfortable because it is because it's a sixty forty. There's gonna be a lot of games where one of them has two touchdowns in a hundred and twenty total yards and the other one has forty total yards, and in totality, I'm willing to take that. But if I've only got one guy or the other, I'm in deep trouble if it's not his week,

and I don't know, I'm nervous about that. It seems like you're looking for safety and guillotine area, and what's what's more safe than to have the combination of these two running backs. It is that that's a pretty safe way. Actually, you know, you know, maybe you're right because between them, how many duds are they going to post? You're probably not getting many done. Maybe we're onto something with the handcuffing backfields, but you've got to be a Chiefs level

offense to pull it off. Thirty three points per game under Patrick Mahomes. I don't know if there's another running back duo out there that you could that could be

this interesting. Now, probably not. They're probably maybe Dobbins and Ingram, but yeah, maybe although the quarterback worries me, you know, to touchdowns, yeah, you know, and Patrick Mahomes will you know, he'll steal five over the season or four, But um, these guys between them could end up scoring eight touchdowns and I you know, between them, I wouldn't be surprised if one has a ten eleven twelve touchdown season and

one has a twelve fourteen, sixteen touchdown season. Well, I would be super interested to see what somebody's draft to look like if they drafted these in a guillotine league. So probably go over to guillotine leagues dot com. Good idea, Uh, take a couple of Chiefs yeah and for running backs, and then show me what the rest of your roster looks like, because I'd be fascinated to see it. Tweeted at me. If you can execute it that is at explosive output is where we would tweet you and at

Paul Charchie, it's where we would tweet me. Um. So yeah, all there's it's a fascinating turn and we'll we'll spend more time I think looking at this particular draft strategy as the preseason unwindes. Let's hope we have a regular preseason. The two games is great. I just want to just give me a month of you know, all the preseason stuff, the training camps and everything else. Yeah, is that okay? Yeah?

You know, in some ways we're better off not having those first couple of games where we get bad intel in those first games Darwin time. Everybody just wants this all to go back to normal. We just want to have a football season where you can sit on the couch with your family and watch some football games and cheer on the numbers on Sunday night and Monday night, and I just want that back. Phenomenal great job, thanks Matt,

Thank you. By the way. Reminder, for those that are listening to Fantasy Football Weekly, for the markets that carry the radio show, we're back on the air in two weeks. We're on there August first, The long form two hour version of Fantasy Football Weekly is coming in just two episodes from now. You know, this is a scamp thirty one minutes right now. This is a piece of cake. Yea, this is nibble exactly. H Matt, great job. We'll talk to you next week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production

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