The Way The West Was Won

My co host this week are Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison. Hello, guys, Hello, Welcome to the Wild Wild West. Let's finish this cross country tour, this grueling cross country I think it's spent a month of breaking down offenses. What how these up? Mostly about what these offenses are going to be different this year? Because everybody wants to just replay last year? Why do most of the cheap that you see at this time of year, especially, they're basically just well, what

ordered they finish in last year? That'll be my starting point. So unoriginal, But that's not what we do here, do you hear? Do it would be more fun for us to take a cross country road trip as a Fantasy Football Weekly crew or do these divisions over a four week span, which is more fun. I would rather have the cross country road trip and I want to be

in Somebody sent me like I started. I did a radio show last about it three weeks ago about r ving because I was thinking that might be the summer trip would be in an r V where I don't have to fly, I don't have to be in hotels. I just like clean the RV one time. You rent it, right, you clean it one time, and you go have fun. Somebody sent me the Mercedes benz Um wind Star something. I've seen a few of those Mercedes RVs around. Oh my god, the things I'm amazing. But it was three

hundred thousand dollars and it's leaps too two. Now, what are the advantages of this thing is it's it's just like the size of a large van. So you're not taking this enormous contraption right, But it has all of the it has all the appointments of what you would imagine a Mercedes r V would have, unbelievable granted countertops. Yes, yes,

that it was fantastic bathroom. That'd be you. So if we can get that thing, you can you can be the bubbler brand, can be the driver well, it won't sleep meer, you can sleep in the bathroom, Stanning out, No problem, let's go to the probably rather hang out the bathroom and drive the RV. At least you get the bathroom. A f C West and NFC West this week, which if you missed any of the other other divisions, you can go back through our previous podcast. We encourage

it to do that. And not only we gonna break down how these offenses work, which is sort of the main focus, just how does this offense feel like it's going to come together fit all? And then we're also identifying the riskiest player to draft compared to ADP for that team and the player with the most upside compared to ADP. So that's the premise. We begin with the a f C West and your reigning champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. Matt, Yeah, you know that Chief's offense. It's

pretty good. I'm familiar. Um, it's kind of why they have ten players going in the top three a DP and it's actually eleven if you include uh kicker Harrison Butker I think almost universally the number one ranked fantasy kicker. Yeah, he's he's in there too. So let's start with the big arm of Patrick Mahomes. He threw nine touchdowns last season. There it is nine that went forty plus yards. He

led the league in that category. So you think as receivers are just flying downfield and he's hitting people open twenty yards downfield, that's not the case. Average depth of target for his wide receivers and tight ends ranged between nine point four to thirteen point four, with Tyreek Hill, who's kind of the most notable receiver, slotting in at twelve point five. So the cool thing about Mahomes is he throws his receivers open because get this, yards after

catch per reception. Travis Kelsey gained another four yards after the catch, Hill another four point eight, Watkins five point eight. Nicole Harder one of my favorite sleepers this year. So I'm totally not worried about the passing game. And you could consider each of the top three players in Hill, Kelsey, and Mahomes as a pretty safe in my fact, the upside In fact, I was going to say the upside play is Nicole Hardman. Um, it was only a year ago that Hardman was looking like the guy who would

just slot into the offenses. The Tyreek Hill replacement, and they're similarly built speed receivers. Hill had the fastest clocked time in the NFL last year at twenty two point eight miles per hour when he was chasing down Damien Williams on a touchdown. That's funny, didn't it was just yes? But Hardman had the fastest speed in the league on a scoring play last year at twenty one point seven miles per hour. So these guys get drunk and go out running UI when they're that fast, almost it's kind

of dangerous. Could hurt people. Hardman tied for the league lead in twenty five plus yard touchdown receptions with five last year. He's entering a year two in a Patrick Mahomes offense. You don't have to draft him till round nine. He only finished as the forty nine wide receiver in fantasy, but he only had twenty six receptions to get to to forty nine in Fantasy points. At your position, that's like two per game. That's less than two per game.

Is now Hardman killed you in the games in which he didn't score, basically because his the volume was so low. When you're getting a catch and a half per game on average, you better score and so that was why I think people are going to be nervous about hardening, and especially in like a guillotine format where he's super

super dangerous. But if you think those twenty six are going to turn into right, which is what Sammy Watkins had last year, two receptions, Um, I think Hardman with fifty two receptions, which is not a lot, which is like it was about forty seven among wide receivers in the NFL last year, he'd easily go over a thousand yards. And he had six touchdowns last year and he'd easily approved improved on that. So, um, I think that he's

the uh, the best upside there. The biggest risk but also maybe the highest reward is Clyde Edwards Hilaire don't yes, is it like? No, it's not like that at all, actually, but you're correct and not saying the age he's going off the board in the third round. Um. The problem is is it's a little murky on the running back depth chart. Last year, players with seven or more touches from the running back position on the Chiefs Damian Williams did it eleven times, McCoy did it ten, Darryl Williams

did it four, Darwin Thompson did it three times. Now Shady McCoy's gone, but both the Williams, Darwin Thompson and DeAndre Washington are now on the depth chart as well as c H. And I know Andy Reid has deployed workhorse backs in the past, most recently Kareem Hunt in the eighteen season, and I know talent wins out, and he's the most talented back on the roster, and I'm probably drafting him with the first overall pick in our

rookie trap coming up in the Empire. But I was asked to come up with a risky player and he's the roster real danger here because he may only get the snaps. Yeah, that's that's the bit. That's the only danger here. And I think talent wins out. But I'm probably in a redraft league, gonna take this one year off and look at him probably next year. Let's go

to the Denver Broncos. Brian, this is a team with a couple of notable new faces in Melvin Gordon, Jerry Judy, and everybody thinks Drew lock is ready to make the next move here and really add some passing balance to this offense. How do you feel about it? Yeah, Denver last year fifty seven point one percent passing plays that was twenty four the most. They ran the ball forty three percent of the time. I was the ninth most. So they were a little run heavy last year. Only

one point seven offensive touchdowns per game. That was the that's bad. And Pat Shurner though, who has a very nice track record outside of the Giants mess a couple of years ago, but no one was going to thrive in that Gettleman environment. So I'm gonna give him a pass on that one. Um, So I want to note how Brian gets a Gettleman dig in. It doesn't matter what team it is, He's gonna figure out the way

to bring it. Back to how Ghettle pretty sure I've mumbling my sleep like, but hey, I'm a Bengals fan now. And by the way, no one is allowed on the Bengals fanwagon this year. That's the last year I'm holding the gates. And everyone was laughing, so you're holding the door shot, screw you all. Anyway back to Drew lock Uh right now going out in the late thirteenth round his quarterback twenty three. I've got him quite a bit higher than that. A lot of people do that. The

hype is real. Hype is building around Drew only five starts last year, he did go four and one. Came out on fire with five touchdown passes across his first two starts, but that was against a depleted Chargers secondary and then a brutal Houston secondary struggled in Kansas City in the blizzard, and they didn't really put up numbers in the last two. But Denver wants Lock to be the guy. Uh, well, yeah, I mean, look at the look what they've done at the quarterback position since Manning left.

So it's all about he He looks like he has what it takes. He's got the build, he's got the arm, he looks like he's got the mental game. So it's all about the additions to the arsenal only off season. Um, before we get to those, I want to talk about

Courtland Sutton really quick. Obviously, the wide receiver one on the Broncos right now in redraft going in the fifth round, his wide receiver twenty four going way higher in Dynasty of course, uh Sutton was a top twelve wide receiver in the first half, often with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen as his quarterback. His second half was actually torpedoed

by his final four weeks. I remember having a monster second half, but Uh in his final four games finished no higher than wide receiver Fortyes, so that really put a damper on his numbers. But regardless, he made a huge leap in his second year as a rookie. In twenty eighteen, Sutton was eighty second out of a hundred and twenty six wide receivers and yards after the catch. Last year he finished twenty nine. UM. He shows all the trades of an elite wide receiver. The main concern

is there's more competition for targets. Now, let's get to that than there was last year, and that starts with Jerry Judy, UH first round pick. UH twenty four touchdowns across his last two seasons in Alabama. He looked amazing in Alabama, spread offense so productive. The concerns are he might struggle a little gets a little bit against the

more physical corners in the NFL and press coverage. UH, and he doesn't have he's tall, he's six to He's a little wiry at two hundred, doesn't have a massive wingspan. Those seventy six inches is kind of dinosaur arms for a guy that tall. Um. But again, I just can't get with the fact that they took Jerry Judy over Ceedee Lamb. I'm never gonna get over that a lot of people would have though you know it's it's not criminal. You and I both think Ceedee Lamb was the right pick.

But I'm just stuck on are there any dinosaurs with long arms that? That's what I'm thinking about right now. I know t Rex kind of pterodactyl, right because those are wings, but those are pretty I mean, who had long arms? I don't know. I was there a dinosaur with long arms? You've got google right, long Armasaurus? Yes, But so Judy going in the late ninth right now and Redraft wide receiver forty one that that seems about right. But uh, he doesn't threaten Sutton as the alpha dog.

He's gonna be the compmentary number two. So there's no for Judy. But I don't expect him to pop off entirely in his rookie year. And there's one more rookie they did added wide receiver that's kJ Hamler for Redraft purposes. He's not gonna have much of an impact, so we won't we won't go there. But he is an intriguing dynasty prospect, and I'm not a fan. Okay, long arm dinosaurs dinosaur is the dino kai Res. Okay, I know

Kiris tell us about the dino Cyrus. It's a genus of large or the mimosaur that lived in the Late Cretaceous around seventy million years ago in a pair of large arm, shoulder girdles and a few other girdles. Bones of the dinosaur were first discovered in Mongolia. I think they might introduce that one in like the sho coming installment of the Jurassic Park Garbage series. They might throw

that it's a it's a very strange looking dinosaur. Looks like it has looks like they're dinosaur with with like some weird wings. That is weird. That is, the arms don't look that long. It looks it does look more like a duck than of Oh now there's oh, there's the long arms. Some of the versions are long arms, look like they just have like a paddle. I mean, if Jerry Judy's got arms and hands like that, we've got no issues at all. Well, the problem is he doesn't.

He's got the short arm, like can he can he mix it up with the t rex. You think he looks like he's got a lot of times they show you these pictures, but you don't realize that thin only like four ft tall. Not all of the dinosaurs were gigantic. They weren't dressed park that's realistic, all right. Anyway, back to a non dinosaur in the young Noah Fanse the

one more past catcher. We have to talk about, of course right now going in the ninth round tight end eleven eight point three yards after the catch last year that led all tight ends second among tight ends and yards per reception top seven and tight end end zone targets. And he really only started coming on in the second half of the years, so a lot of excitement around fans. I think, uh, tight end of leven probably his four really, I think the ceiling is a little higher for fans.

And then, um, we got to talk about the running backs of course, charts you alluded to Melvin Gordon, the new arrival. He's going in the mid third round right now at RB nineteen. Philip Lindsay is still in town, of course, right now he's going round eight around RBT. So last year for Denver, Lindsay and Royce Freeman had the same number of carries inside the ten yard line,

but Lindsay had twice as many inside the five. So he was the guy for Denver inside the stripe and inside the five eight carries, fourteen yards, five touchdowns, very impressive um for those who don't remember, Gordon was a charger last year. He held out the first four games, but he ended up with the fifth most carries inside the five in the league with thirteen, and his fifteen yards inside the five was the third most, so he

did pretty well inside the five. Two. Gordon scores many touchdowns inside the five as sa Kwan Barkley, Nick Chubb and Levian Bell combined last year, So we're looking at his serious competition right now. It's pretty much like a fifty five the virtual split. But the one difference is one of these guys has passed the eye test multiple times, right, and one has failed. Well, I would tell you it's Philip. Philip Lindsay was passed the eye test. That's what I

would tell you to charge. That's what I was trying to get us, because we talked about this before Lindsay passes the eye test. Gordon really never has. He's never looks just elite. He's produced. He didn't score touchdown in his rookie year. I'll never let him live that down, won't. So for that reason, Gordon in the mid third at RB nineteen, with the competition that probably is a better running back right behind him is the biggest downside for

his ADP and then Drew Lock. If everything comes together with these added weapons and he continues to progress to your team top twelve quarterback, he is the easy upside player on this Denver Broncos team. Let's go to Las Vegas. The constant in the Raiders offense is Josh Jacobs. He's presumed to be one of the league's few true workhorse backs, and I think that is the case here. DeVante Booker isn't a threat. Rookie Lynn Bowden likely as a utility

or gadget guy. Um. You know, he's he played primarily running back, but they're already talking about making him just a wide receiver or he's just gonna do whatever. He's a sketch back up up Minie the moocher right here. Nice year, Jacobs had two hundred sixty two touches last year. I think he gets no fewer than that here, and possibly up to three hundred touches, in part because you should be more involved in the passing game. Who says so his general manager, Mike Mayock says, we're going to

get him more involved in the passing game. So let's hope that's the case. He averaged almost five yards per carry, and he's running behind Pro Football focuses number seven run blocking line from last year, and that run blocking line returns all five of their starters. So I don't see any role downside for for Josh Jacobs. He's going right

now at pick nine. Overall, I think he's very safe at that spot, and so I think there's still plenty there's plenty of reason to think that Jacobs will be as good as he was last year, if not better. And ye two now charts, Are you taking a guy like Josh Jacobs in the tail end of the first

round or will you be doing the opposite this year? Well, I'm almost certainly going to be doing the opus, Okay, so I can probably not Unfortunately, and the first round is notoriously dangerous for running backs, but this one feels pretty safe. Let's go to the passing game. A variety of new faces here. The first wide receiver taken in the draft was Henry Ruggs, insanely fast from Alabama, should

be a Day one starter. His modest production in college suggests a slightly longer learning curve than guys like Jerry Judy, who we just talked about um, But his crazy speed and athleticism means that he's gonna roast some secondaries and you're gonna want to play him in matchups, in specific matchups early and then maybe later, then don't forget. In the third round, they took rookie Brian Edwards. Rewrote the South Carolina record book. Incredibly productive, amazing body control, high

character guy. He had a knee injury that knocked him out of the end of twenty nineteen, wasn't able to participate in the combine. We're gonna watch the status of that knee and training camp, but he's somebody's gonna threaten for time to do you ever recall quite the disparity and rookie wide receivers where they went in the actual draft and then where they're going in terms of fantasy

football with Rugs, the first wide receiver taken. He's like six when it comes to a rookie wide receiver, especially where these boys being drafted, and we're gonna talk about that and just about um so keep an eye and Brian Edwards as well throughout the preseason. We'll want to see if his knee is healthy enough to make him a competitor for starting time against Tyrolle Williams right off the bat, who I don't like. By the way, I

thought Tyrone Williams was relatively pedestrian. Last year, he got dinged up, didn't produce in big numbers despite the fact that they really needed him a lot. So I'm not terribly interested in him, and I don't I think there's a scenario here where Edwards by the end of the year just beats him out. So I expect Derek Carter roll into the season as the starter, but he might be on a short lease because Marcus Mariotte is there, and if Mariota looks good in training camp, maybe there's

more of a battle here. Um. As I tweeted yesterday, Derek Carr finished last year's quarterback fifteen and that brings us to our upside player Derek Carr who is currently going off the board at quarterback twenty seven. Carbage time, carbage time, he's going off the board and seventh round seventeen. He's got all these new weapons right that we already talked about. Um, Las Vegas defense is going to be bad again. There's gonna be a lot of passing, a

lot of carbage, a lot of carbage time potentially. I think the riskiest player here is Bryan Darren wall Or yep, going off the board at tight end five right now. Yeah, you look at all these new receivers that are gonna eat into his targets, and he had just the three touchdowns last year on all the it's like target a hundred times he turned into three touchdowns. Shaking fist at Foster Moreau still um and then so just too many new faces here. I think that you know, we didn't

even mention uh um um Witten there as well. Now, who's gonna maybe eat into some of that production as well? For Darren Waller, I just especially in the red zone and Nelson Aguilar is gonna infect everyone with the drop seas it's bad. Yeah, no, not just by proximity. That could be the case we'll take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about the Chargers briefly. This is not an offense that is exciting by any means, I

don't think. And then turn our attention to the n f C West Seattle, San Francisco, the Rams Zona plenty to get to on Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Georgie and Matt Harrison. Brian Johnson with you. I don't mean to take the wind out of your sales by suggesting that your Chargers analysis, Matt is going to be anything other than stellar, but just the reality from a fantasy standpoint, this might be the least compelling offense in the NFL. So last week I

got to do the Carolina offense. This looks like the a f C version of the Carolina Panthers. Chargers passed on six of their plays last season, that was fifth most in the league. Lock, of course, they lost their quarterback, Phil Rivers uh He went to India with his seventeen kids,

leaving Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert to man the backfield. Now, Tye Taylor started a few games for the Browns at the beginning of before Baker took over the Taylor Yeah, but does uh last real starting gig where his three years in Buffalo where UM he had a high completion percentage, he was a low risk, low mistake kind of guy. In three full seasons of starting, he never threw more than six interceptions in a year. Wow. So he's which, by the way, keeps you in the league a long time.

That's how you stay as a backup quarterback in this league. And he is aged thirty this year. So I look at this offense to run similar to Carolina's UM Taylor's career average depth of targets in the nines, which should allow the Chargers to be a little bit more functional

than Teddy Bridgewater, who's in like the seventh's Uh. So this is gonna be a safe offense, high percentage throws than a lot of them, a little bit of rushing from your thirty year old quarterback who still has some wheels, and a heavy dose of Austin Ekeler, and this is setting up to be really really nice for him this

year while he was in Buffalo. UM. While Taylor was in Buffalo, Shawn McCoy was seventh in the league and running back receptions seen tenth and twenty sixteen, and he was injured for most So outside of Christian McCaffrey's other worldly receiving stats, Austin Ekeler had the second most targets in the league um with and he had a hundred and four targets last year. Melvin Gordon had fifty two

targets last year. Those should probably all roll um. Ekeler led running backs in the league with forty plus yard receptions with three. He trailed McCaffrey by only twelve receiving yards He had nine nine three, and he topped McCaffrey's eight receiving touchdowns. His average depth of target was one point to one yards. That's not much. His average yards per catch was ten point eight, So let's that's uh, that's some impressive work after the catch right there. Yeah.

So the thing that really hurt him was his red zone touches. He only had seventeen carries in the twenty and only nine inside the five and Ran already talked about Melvin Gordon is gone, So does he automatically get those? Can he increase the rushing value without Melvin Gordon there? I think the answer is yes, Um, Melvin Gordon had more rushing attempts in twelve games than Ekeler did in sixteen.

So if you take half of A Gordon's a hundred and sixty two rushing attempts last year, Okay, give him to one more, it's another three forty rushing yards and at least a handful of touchdowns if they give it to him inside the five. And so, by the way, I think Ekeler is mistakenly viewed as a scat back because he's a past catching back. People think that he's that he's a slighter build than he is house. He's a muscular dude. He can run inside and he could

be a goal line back. Uh, well, they let him there are there are at least two other running backs on roster that could end up being goal line factor. Yeah, and that's Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson. Both are going off way late in drafts. And I know that. Uh. I know, Brian on the show has been a big Justin Jackson fan. But man, I think Austin Ekeler is just that good and I think that they're gonna roll with him this year. Um. Lastly on Eckler, uh, let me see it. I had to move around in my

little sheet tibboo. Right now I'm scatting um. So basically, it's it's Carolina all over again. It's a it's a quarterback with mid range average depth of target. He liked to feature his multitool running back in the past and the third round. Eckler's probably one of the safer picks and Fantasy I actually like him a lot. He's my safety play. Uh. In Taylor's three years in Buffalo, he only had one wide receiver crack the top fifty in Fantasy points scored in that position. That was Sammy Watkins.

He did not have a top fifty recent eve in sixteen or seventeen, and he had Robert Woods there for the for at least part, if not all, of those years. So my riskiest player. You may think it's Keenan Allen. I would it's not. He's going out in the fourth round and he's getting a new quarterback. You're close. It's Mike Williams. Williams is a deep threat and a touchdown

guy who only scored twice last year. By the way, his average depth of target was eighteen point three compared to Alan, who runs primarily safe routes from the slot at ten point three yards downfield. That's right tyrods range. So I I like, I like Allen to continue to get the targets and the receptions. I think Williams is just a don't touch kind of guy, similar to Curtis Samuel and the Panthers. So that that's the guy I'm avoiding.

What do you think about Hunter Henry because obviously you know he's still widely viewed as a top five fantasy yeah, and off at tight end number seven right now, seventy two overall, so the end of the sixth round. Um, the dude is just produced every time time when he's healthy, and and he by all accounts he's healthy right now, hasn't done anything in a while. So I think I think Hunter Henry, who's in that same range down field at with the high percentage throws, I think he's in

for for some fine play as well. So Mike Williams is the guy I'm avoiding. By the way, he's going off the board at nine seven overall wide receiver forty That seems really early for a guy who scored two touchdowns last year. All right, let's go to San Francisco. Brian. This is obviously a super Bowl caliber team, but we've got a number of new faces in this offense and changes in the offense with uh the the additions at wide receiver, we've got where he most are walking in

as your probable starter. This is a different offense than the one that we the one that we've saw, especially at this time last year. Yeah, and for fantasy purposes, it wasn't a very exciting offense last year. San fran ran Or passed the ball forty eight point six percent of the time. That was thirty first. They ran the ball fifty one four percent. That was the second most

rushing plays by percent. Did score three point two offensive touchdowns per game, though that was fourth most, one of four teams to average more than three touchdowns per game offensive touchdowns that is. Joe Staley retired at left tackle. It's a big loss, but just bringing Trent Williams all world left assuming he's still all world we have, yeah years, he's still in his twenties, late twenties, al Right, I

think he should be just fine. But uh so, Yeah, Jimmy G's got a pretty solid line in front of him. Not elite, but definitely very solid. Uh, speaking of Jimmy g going off the board in the early twelfth right now, at quarterback twenty a little high for me. Only four top ten finishes at quarterback last year for Jimmy, three of them came in the first ten games, and two of those three were against the Cardinals. You will face the Cardinals twice again this year. Of course, it has

every year as long as he's a forty niner. But really, you know, San Francisco just needs him to be a system quarterback. They want a playoff game when he had seventy seven passing yards and zero touchdowns. Yeah, so they want to play a good defense, They want to run the ball for fantasy purposes. I'm not loving Garoppolo a whole lot, but I will say this. I will say this one stat and it's very interesting from Ian Hartet's

of Pro Football Focus. The most yards per pass attempt in excluding screen passes with a minimum of a hundred attempts, so basically a hundred a minimum a hundred attempts that weren't screen passes. The average yards per attempt Ryan Tannehill nine point seven. And then Jimmy Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes

retired at eight point eight. So if San Fran reverts back to a couple of years ago when the defense was crap, Yeah, well I don't think that's quite gonna happen, right Well, probably not, but they were very bad not long ago. But yes, there are much better, they're more improved. If the team I'm from the defensive side takes one

per se, there is some hope for Garoppolo. But I still think there's more hope than you're giving him because of the improvements at the wide receiver position compared especially covert to where they were rolling into last season, where they were banking on our Key's Goodwin always banged up, heard her was heard every you know, all the problems

they had at receiver last year. They roll into this year with a first round pick, a receiver Deebo Samuel coming off that great second half and playoff run that he had. I just feel like this is a this is an opportunity now for Garoppolo to be materially better because the receivers are Yeah. Well, let's just let's not kiddle out of the way real quick. All I'll say

about George Kittle final year of rookie deal. Wants money motivation is there tight end two right now though, and by a DP, you're taking Kiddle or Kelsey if you want on a tight end. I'm I'm still taking Kelsey fair enough. I'm all part of that Chief's offense. Um. So Deebo Samuel, let's talk about the wide receivers. Unfortunately suffered this Jones fracture not long ago. Timetable twelve to sixteen weeks. He probably not going to be full go until second third week of the season if all goes

well for him. The interesting thing about Deebo is he did have a strong second half, but his big games where he was like top twelve and in side at wide receiver, there's a handful he had a rushing touchdown each one of those games that. Seriously, he's an amazing real life football player. He really is. He's a great athlete, he is. And yeah, he can run the ball catch the ball, of course, and it doesn't I know, running you can never predict a wide receiver rushing touchdowns, but

he could. I mean, it's not like a total flute. If you're gonna if you're gonna predict the best chance for what wide receiver, he's gonna be one of them for sure, but I don't. For me, it's been a I'm fading the forty Niners past tack and this one. The forty Niners wide receivers average nine and a half catches per game as a whole last year, and I know they're better, and they are better, but I don't know you can. Let's get to him right now, sixteenth

round and redraft wide receiver sixty. Uh probably going to be the top wide receiver option going into the season with Samuel dinged up. UM, I'm worried about rookie wide receivers this year with no no mini camps and uh nine point five catches a game game, I'm fading on you. I'm still fading Samuel even though he was going off the board cheaper. If you're looking for a fill in for Samuel, people are going to Jalen Heard right now, rookie wide out at a Baylor draft in the third round,

six thirty. He's a beast, but he's he's raw. But I think Kendrick Kendrick Born is the guy I target out of any wide receiver for the forty Niners only two games with six targets last year, but in both those games. He caught uh touchdown and went over forty yards. We saw six targets, so I saw they're trying to extend him right now the um and I think they will. And then um, so I don't know the receiving corps

of mess. You really need to see what's happen, what's up with debot as we need closer to the season. But I'm not super optimistic from a fantasy standpoint for any of them. Um, we do have to talk to running backs to very cool. I'll go as quickly as possible. This is a sticky team. Raheem Mostert going off in the mid sixth as RB twenty three, what a perfect do the opposite running back is perfect for the opposite And then there's still Tevin Coleman of course going in

the mid ninth. Right now, is we just talk about Tvin Coleman for a minute. How about he sucks? He's just not good. So you know, I just don't think, you know, as great as this offense can be, especially for any running back, seems to be able to produce in it where he most starts better by any criteria, I think than Tevin Coleman, just as a running back and so I think I think most are gets the absolutely gets the first crack at the majority of work.

Oh yeah, no doubt most are. It's last six games last year finished inside the top twenty among running backs, and all of them. Four of those six were inside the top ten. You're not even talking about the playoffs where he regular they did was just run him. Tevin Coleman, Mostart each carried the ball a hundred thirty seven times last year. Mostart finished with two twenty eight more rushing yards, also finished with more receiving yards ont less catches and Coleman.

So yeah, most are. It's the guy, and he is your high upside play. If he can get the bell cow usage, you know, the workhorse back all year long on this team. UH, top ten RB potential you forget easily. This is Mike Shanahan's kid. Shannahannikins Man hated Mike Shanahan. We we love him. We love Kyle, though Kyle styles us he is as predictable as he's so predictive. I love him. I I love his offenses. They've been great. All right, let's go to see you're done right. I

don't talk about Jack McKinnon. No, Okay, well, all right, who is so wait? Let me let me class by high upside most and really the downside for me, now, it's it's gotta be iook because his ADP is gonna climb. With Deebo Samuel injured, I think you'll creep into the mid thirties, which puts him in starter potential in terms of fantasy football. And he's a rookie and there's gonna be growing pains and that's gonna be a frustrating process

to pick which weeks to plug him in. So I'm I'm fading all the white outs for San Fran personally. Let's go to Seattle, and this one take very long because I think this year's version looks just like last year, which looked us like the year before it. You know, we know what Seattle is all about here, and there's not a lot of new parts. They were third in rushing attempts last year. They were second in rushing attempts the year before that. You know this is gonna be

a run first offense. Chris Carson returns as the starter. There is Carlos Hyde there, but he stinks, and Rashade Penny is trying to recover from his second major knee injury, so he's not really a factor either. So Chris Carson um it should be the focal point of much of this offense. Was there some talk about Marshawn Lynch possibly rejoining the team again? You know, I thought Lynch looked pretty bad, very bad. I just don't think there's anything left in the tank. Uh. The offensive line, I'm a

little bit nervous about. Let's talk about all the changes here. It always changes in Seattle's offensive line, always at center. B J. Finney was signed from Pittsburgh to compete with Joey Hunt. Right guard Damian Lewis was a third round pick from l s U. Who's gonna step in for d J. Fluker? And then the team signed a new right tackle, Brandon Shell from the Jets, to replace Jermaine Effetti. I don't know that any of those guys are better

than the guys they're replacing. And Sella finished with Profo ball Focus is ranked pass blocking unit from last year. There were sixteen in run blocking. I'm nervous about this offensive line, and I think there there's going to be some problems with all these changes. And I don't know if these players are going to be any better. Who needs an offensive line when you have Russell Wilson, Well,

there's that. Let's and let's first, by the way, let's just dispel the notion that Russell Wilson's a rushing quarterback. You're living in if you think that's the case. The last two years he has averaged he's put together as two worst rushing seasons, averaging about three fifty rushing yards per year, and he has averaged one and a half rushing touchdowns. I wonder how much rushing he's actually just

doing in the backfield, scrambling around more. If you could get points for that Russell Wilson, then I'm in DJ sits DJ excuse me. Dk Metcalf stunned almost everybody with his productivity last year. One hundred targets, nine yards, seven touchdowns. Clearly has the body to be a red zone threat um. And maybe if they, you know, in his second year, maybe if they you know, maybe those seven touchdowns turns

in double digit touchdowns. You know, I think there's a lot of optimism on dk metcap Tyler Lockett just straight solid back to back season's top fifteen Fantasy production. Each of the last two years. I think he'll be a factor here too. But the bigger story I think is his team just doesn't pass enough to elevate any of these guys into like top ten level territory. That's just not how this offense is built. And we just don't have the volume from the passing game. Now. Did you

see on Twitter? I think it was this just this week, Russell Wilson was working out with Antonio Brown. I did see that. Yes, Um, a little interesting tidbit there that would be interesting. Antonio Brown is getting now, and to know Brown's getting drafted everywhere. I mean, you know, he doesn't know he's not surviving through drafts undrafted anymore. And it seems like that kind of locker room with you know, strong head coach Pete Carroll could could probably help keep

Antonio Brown a little more subdued. This This is like a very NBA like off season almost for some of these teams, like these super teams like the Bucks are countering the Patriots counter with cam. Yeah, there's a little something to that, and uh it's you would think you need ring cred I think to shut down Antonio Brown, and they got it, you know, And so maybe this

is going to be the right spot. Probably would have been a good citizen in New England last year too, had that played out, Yeah, probably would have been, but that got short circuited, mostly by himself. Greg Olsen is the new starting tight end and this offense is tight end friendly. Remember last year how people were pivoting to Nick Venette and will dis Lee and Jacob Hollister and mostly those guys that actually produced was the wild thing. Yes,

you have to keep because they kept getting hurt. Well, mostly all those guys are gone, and for whatever part of sixteen games that Olsen gives you, he'll get the majority of of what has been a productive tight end offense. Um only will diste returns from last year. So the riskiest player based on a DP I think his DK Metcalf going off the board two picks after Tyler Lockett. Um. We assume he's gonna be a lot better in year two, and he probably will be, but will be better than

Tyler Lockett in year two? I don't know. I'm not ready to go there yet. And the player with the most upside is Greg Olsen going off the board at tight end twenty three. So you know, is your second tight end he'll probably give you tight end one returns while he's healthy, so he fits right in there with the Seattle good tight ends who get hurt a lot. Yes, perfect, Yes, he'll, he'll, he'll, he'll do his thing and that means getting hurt and

that will um. You know, at round twenty, if you have if you've got Greg Olsen starting it for six weeks, fine and you can come to the curve. I think we might have some more tight ends to talk about in the next segment. I bet we do. As we go to the Rams, that is a tight end, a friendly offense. Man, there's a lot of people banking on one of the two tight ends really emerging. We'll talk about the Rams and their tight end situation when we

come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Charchy and Matt Harrison Brian Johnson with you got two teams left to break down as we analyze the a f C and NFC West. We go to the Rams, an offense that obviously underproduced a lot last year, with many people including me, are optimistic they're gonna make the bounce back this year. Returned to a tour to better

form what a weird offense that was last year, wasn't it. Yeah, they passed sixty one two percent at the time, seventh highest rate in the league. Uh. They lost Todd Gurley and Brandon Cooks in the off season. Uh. Offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth did resign for three years. That's good. And then they drafted Cam Akers and Van Jefferson as the Girley and Cooks replacements. Uh. What kind of offense is this one? It's actually a very safe one. They don't

have a lot of risk to them. Uh. They're tied to Jared Goff for the next half decade, and Sean McVeigh is trying to scheme away to put Golf in the best position because it's very possible that got just not a very good quarterback. Um. What that means is they're gonna run the ball and it's gonna be a short passing game. Goff's average depth target eight yards tied for twenty six in the league last year. That was

lower than Mason Rudolph, Mitch true Bisky. Uh, here it is Jacoby Bursette, Kyle Allen, David Bloch, lower than all of those guys. Goff was only sacked twenty two times in sixteen games, though, which puts him in the top ten. Uh as far as least time sacked, that's good for that offensive line. He did fumble ten times last season and through sixteen picks, So they're gonna try to make him safer and safer and get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible. So how will the

short passing offense work? Pretty good for most of the guys you're interested in on this offense, Cooper Cup, especially Cooper Cups average depth of target seven point to Robert Woods eight point four, Tyler Higbee six point five. Guests who didn't belong in that offense last year, Brandon, Yeah,

at fourteen point five. That's gone. So Cup and Woods each clocked in at right around the same amount of targets, receptions, and yards literally give or take a few digits up or down on this but one thirty targets, ninety receptions yards, both almost identical. Yeah, the difference was Cup had ten touchdowns, Woods had to. Yeah that you figure everybody including me thinks that that too number for touchdowns on Robert Woods is gonna look, We're gonna look back. Well, that was

an anomalous Yeah, two is a little bit ridiculous. In his other two years at the Rams, he scored five and six. He's never been a high touchdown guy. Six is his record in a year. But he'll probably get closer to five or six than to stay at two. Well, but with Brandon Cooks out, I just feel like Woods is gonna get you know, add ten percent to to his looks and you know, I want to believe that

he's capable of a nine touchdown season. Yeah. Well, unfortunately the early drafters haven't depressed st Robert Woods is a DP quite enough for me? Um No, in fact that a lot of people, a lot of people see it like I do. Robert Woods, a good receiver is gonna have a better season. You have to take him at the end of the fourth round. That feels about right to me. That's not quite low enough for him to be my value pick. Um. My value pick is Tyler Higby. His his a DP is low enough. He's going off

the board in the ninth round. Is tight end number twelve right now. The Rams finally figured something out at the end of the season, with Higby listened to his last five games of the year when the Rams were still fighting for a wild card spot. Yeah, eight targets, seven receptions, one oh seven and a score. Okay, that's a very good game. Eleven targets seven for one sixteen, fourteen targets, twelve for one, eleven, eleven targets, nine for one oh four, twelve targets, eight for eighty four and

a score. Now let's extrapolate those now you got uh. He averaged eight point six catches, a hundred and four yards and point four scores in those last five games. He was Kindler Kelsey for the last month of the year. So I I like him a lot at that level because it seems like they figured something out with him and how to utilize him properly. He was really splitting time with Gerald Everett earlier in the year, whole career, and they figured out, oh, this guy is pretty good,

let's toss him the ball. So uh, higbie is my uh my upside play. The riskiest play is anyone in the running game, and the highest draft of those as cam Akers, who's going off the board in the middle of the eighth, So it's not even that risky. Um. Darrell Henderson Truthers are all butt hurt because the Rams drafted Acres, But don't sleep on Malcolm Brown continuing to be part of this offense, probably actually especially near the end zone. Girley took fifteen carries from inside the five

last year and converted eight touchdowns. That was, and those numbers are gone. Brown had eight carries from inside to five that he took for five touchdowns, so that's very productive. Acres could end up being the between the twenties runner. Brown could be the goal line guy, Henderson the change

of pace back. So the sneaky bonus value I think is Malcolm Brown here, Who's the guy that you can get very last out of all these running back for sure, last two twenty three running back sixty five, So that's insanely low for a guy who might be sitting on between five to nine touchdowns possibly just there just from the goal line carries and carries from inside the five.

Cam Akers isn't ready to take that role. I think Makers is built to be a goal line guy though, and so it's not clear that Malcolm Brown will get those carries. But the fact that he's been successful, yeah, with the carries they've given him at the stripe and so many carries that are gone, Yes, you might be right. About that, because Malcolm Brown is gonna be He's I think he's gonna be a havan to ten touch per game. Guy.

Probably doesn't score, he's gonna kill you, but he's gonna have these games or he's gonna get touchdowns maybe two in a game. And for best ball, I like Malcolm Brown. He's definitely a best ball guy there. Let's go to Arizona Kyler Murray. Everybody expecting a big uptick and production and Kyler Murray, he's uh said, where's is ADP right now? On quarterbacks last night? Yeah, that's that's a massive, massive jump from where he was last year. Absolutely, Ah yeah,

Kyler Murray. Last year most completions of fifty plus yards. Kirk Cousins had six that led the NFL. Kyler Murray was tied with him with six completions of fifty plus yards. Here's the list of rookie quarterbacks with a top twelve fantasy finish since Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Andrew Look, r G three, Cam Newton, All those guys are pretty good from a fantasy perspective. RG three You can give your take what you want there, sou Yeah, the sky

is the limit for Murray in his second season. He was third in rushing attempts last year and second in yard yards among quarterbacks, averaging five point nine yards per catch four touchdowns. So he's a weapon. He's going right about in the right spot. He I think that's man. It's high, it's a it's a high flying offense. And uh, there's gonna be a lot of excitement with Cliff Kingsbury and second year. So before I get to Murray's pass catchers,

I just want to talk about Kenyan Drake. Um probably might be the safest running back going in the first two rounds, and that includes everyone. Uh. Starting week nine, Drake started getting about twenty touches per game with Arizona he came over from Miami. Of course, from week nine on he only finished behind McCaffrey, Derrick Henry and Zeke and PPR formats and and from week nine to seventeen he finished Drake. That is seventy percent of his games as an RB two and nearly as an RB one.

That's incredibly say floor with a ridiculous upside for comparison to say, you have guys like Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon. We're finishing more than twenty their games outside the top thirty, and those guys can certainly win you be releague, but they can lose it for you if you drafted in the first round. So I'm loving Drake He's going. It depends on the league. But you can say mid second as RB like ten to twelve. But uh, I think that might be a little too late for Drake.

But he's not my upside guy. Get to him in a little bit. He's your safe guy. You already you already said he's super safe. He's super safe, super safe guy. Uh. Now to the the weapons for Kyler Murray in the passing game, and of course we'll start with the Andre

Hopkins coming over from Houston. Um going in the late first, right now or early second around wide receiver for you're generally seeing Michael Thomas, of course, Davante Adams and Tyree Hill going before Hopkins, and you know what, they will probably be going before Hopkins if he was in Houston. Still, I feel like so the main concern is really see the targets he saw in Houston with Arizona. I was shocked to see this Arizona's wide receivers told the third

most catches last year. Two. That's nearly fifteen a game. That's a lot. Remember I said forty nine at nine and a half, so that that's that's a big difference. UM And for reference, the Texans actually finished fourth with two. So last year Arizona, it's sounding like they lost any key member of their wide receiver corps. It was it was Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald and then it was like Demere Bird and Andy Isabella. So the volume is

still there for Hopkins. So despite that though, he's still my biggest downside risk based on the ADP just because wide receiver is so deep, you could argue taking a couple other white outs instead of him where he's at. UM, I don't know first round. I think any wide receiver is risky in the first round this year. DeShawn Watson is awesome. He's a better cort Tayler. Murray wants to

someday be Deshaun Watson. Awesome, he's not. You know, we don't know that he's there yet and we'll ever be there, so you know, there there's we're still afting Hopkins as though he's got an elite quarterback when we don't know that he's got an elite quarterback. And if he just had to choose, would you say he's gonna have a better year than he's ever had or probably come in a little under than his normal numbers. It just feel to me, it feels like it's I'm expeking about the same.

Still too risky for me with this a DV. This is a team too. It's tough to find risk on this team really outside of Murray. And if you're that worried about Murray and Hopkins, Um a couple more wide outs to talk about. Christian Kirk right now, going in the late eighth round wide receiver thirty seven. Only played thirteen games last year, but Um had at least seven targets nine times, nine times, double digit targets five times, and at least six catches seven times as well. And

like I said, he missed those three games. If he played a full sixteen game season, he's easily inside the top twenty four wide receiver. And you think of Kirk, and you just think of defense. Is keen in on Drake and DeAndre Hopkins and this kid might just go crazy running free in single cover. Ridge all season long, so, but he is not my highest the Arizona Cardinals. I know, I know what's coming. Our listeners don't, but I do. Some might. Uh, So I have to talk about Larry Fitzgerald,

probably the greatest to ever do it. I'm gonna say, even better than Jerry Royce considering the awful quarterbacking that fits his head in his career, and Rice had Montana and Steve Young. But Larry a brutal year last year. A great start, top the hundred yards in his first two games, his one top twelve finish game in Week one, but after a sort of Week three and on, he only topped sixty yards twice. And don't forget Keem Butler, Andy is Abella and needs some reps, and I feel

like he's gonna forego some of his snaps for those guys. So, actually, Fitzgerald's my downside guy. I'm saying you can't draft Larry Fitzgerald in fantasy football. This here, I'm not gonna do it. It breaks my heart. I'm pulling for him in reality, but people will still draft him. But don't waste your draft pick on chasing fits of bold. All right, who's your side, guy, let's let's get it all the way. Upside. Guy doesn't really have an ADP yet hard I'm trying.

There's upside and that is Dan Arnold, ard player without any not a lot of numbers or tape on Dan Now a tight end in the in the on the team that featured the fewest tight ends snaps last year. Something's got I'm gonna kindly ask you to shut up. Now, let's break down what we got for dan Arnold. Look at this guy going right to last year. Don't we say not to do that. It's our it's our only

amateur amateurs right here. Anyway. Dan Arnold went undrafted out of Wisconsin Platteville in seventeen, but was signed by the Saints as a wide receiver converted tight end year later. Yeah, played one year with the Saints. Really in one with Arizona last year. Only twenty career receptions, not a lot, not a lot, But he's averaging fourteen yards to catch. Fifteen of those twenty receptions have gone for first downs.

That's pretty impressive. Okay, did not see real game action until the last four games of twenty nineteen with the Cardinals, but in those four games saw thirteen targets turned him into eight catches, one and twenty seven yards and two touchdowns in four games. That's still like averaging five yards a game. You guys are more on anyway, he started just one of those games. You didn't see full game match and think of the thirdteen targets. If he gets thirteen targets in the game, well is he? Is he

the starter? He started week seventeen? Okay, one start? Okay? So is he the starter this year? Dan Arnold the starter? Cliff Kingsbury wants him to be the starter. In his one start last year, six targets, four catches, seventy six yards in a touchdown. He's gonna get full run in in an offense that plays soft tight end defenses. No, put your finger down, put it up your nose. What you got? I was gonna say, DeAndre Hopkins hundred and

two targets, hundred and eleven receptions, yards, eleven touchdowns. Who are his quarterbacks? You ask? Yeah, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. I think he can produce anybody With Kyler Murray, I think it'll be okay, You'll be fine, all right, Dan Arnold relevance, Damn Dan Arnold a DP is an infinity similar, Dan Arnold would somebody should get that. You should go to the Jets or the Jets. The Jets won't trade for Sam Donald. Imagine that Sam Donald to Dan Arnold connection.

You know, they're gonna have these expanded, these expanded rosters due to COVID this year. There they might have a real problem where teams can't have you know, like linebackers have to wear between whatever forty and fifty or something, right, you have to, you know, but if you're if you're the Steelers, you've already retired like four numbers of linebackers and you've also got a bunch of linebackers, they might

run out of numbers for some of these guys. They might need the infinity symbol or a half like Hi Hi Hi. Yeah. Maybe, um it's getting nerdy, that's getting nerdy. Uh. Speaking of COVID. Next show, I want to talk about some of the COVID prevention measures your league needs to take. Now, get your you know, get your league squared away. Now for some of the things that might happen COVID related That will come next week as one of several topics.

So and and and I can I can bring up an early one where we're in an Empire baseball league, Brian and I and we don't know what to do with our Empire baseball league this year. If they play a sixty game baseball season, do you treat it as a full year? Do you do you just treat it as a one off? Some of things are gonna talk about what happens if what happens if it's a a

an abbreviated season. What if it you know a little bit like baseball last year where they just have to not basic like basketball or hockey, or they just basically stop it then what so you know, we're gonna talk about some of those things. Also, we'll talk about Cam Newton going to the Patriots, which we didn't cover in this one. We'll talk about his fantasy value specifically with the Patriots. It's not gonna be anything because Jared Stidham

is the starter. Well maybe you know, they don't have a monetary demand to have to pay Cam, make Cam the starters they paid him because they didn't pay him anything. They could cut him. They could cut him out right by the way. As a side note, for those people that have made it to the fifty six minute mark of this podcast. The Jets, the Bills, and the Dolphins, they all could have blocked this move. If you're the Bills, you're the Bill right there, the Bill. Let's take the

Dolphins out of it. Who I still think, aren't you know they're not necessarily thinking about winning the division this year? But maybe who knows? The Bills really are for sure, and the Jets might be too. They were sitting at I believe two and twenty five million dollars of cap space, and I know that Cam would have had to come to those teams as the backup behind a young starter that's not going to give up that job. But instead of making one and a half million dollars, they could

have gone, here, take ten million dollars. We'll have the best backup in the league, or one of the best backups in the league. And also we play keep away from the Patriots and the Bills and the Jets didn't do it. Maybe Cam wasn't interested in being a backup at all. Have they made public the ten million dollars incentives baked into his contract? You got like that, You

like when guys are playing for stats. If he can make up to six or seven million with incentives, but he's not even guaranteed to be the starter right in with although he's the problem, Come on, he'll be the starter. He'll be all right. Thanks for making it to the very end of this podcast. We're grateful for all of you listening. If you missed any of the previous team by team breakdowns, we encourage you to go back through the previous podcast learn all about all the thirty two

teams in the NFL fantasy style. We'll give the minute work for Dan Arnold two on the tweet right so people mark for everything you ever want to know about Dan Arnold, a boy Everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.