The Super Bowl, Fantasy Style

break down and I think I can handle it. It's the Super Bowl, of course, And you know, like our other playoff episodes, if you heard the previous several months or so, really focusing on a DFS orientation for these games. I'm still giving letter grades to every meaningful player, but it's within the spectrum of DFS, so it depends a lot on their cost. And a player who's normally just a rock solid A like Patrick Mahomes may not be

an A because of his salary. So you know, we'll talk that through for each of the salient guys on both sides of the ball. Now you already know these teams met in week number twelve. We knew that game was a possible playoff or Super Bowl preview and can't

stitt end up winning what was ultimately close game. But you'll remember they they staked out a huge lead early when Tyreek Hill went berserk at the beginning of the game, and um, and then the Bucks with Tom Brady came back to make it a lot closer at the end. Let's start on the Buccaneers side, and I want to start with the running game and just talk broadly about

that for a minute. It was a total non factor in the earlier meeting because again Tyreek Hill went crazy at the beginning and then really the running game not even a factor. Um. But what I want to stress you more is, going back to week eight, can City has been a pretty good run defense, not shutdown. Tampa has a shutdown run defense, which we'll talk about in a minute, but it's been good since week So that's now, um, I believe thirteen games ago. I mean, through thirteen games,

it's pretty big sample size. At that point, only one back is top seventy two yards on the ground against Kansas City. They're giving up a modest four point two yards per carry, and maybe most importantly, teams are only averaging nineteen rushes per game against Kansas City. Since we eate that is the lowest in the league, so you just don't get volume with any of the running backs that face Tampa. I'm sorry that face the Chiefs, and it's usually because teams are fallen behind, and that could

happen here as well. Um and so I think there's a really strong angle that just says, you know what. I think you may just want to avoid the Buccaneers running backs. Ronald Jones clocks into thirty three hundred, however, which is very affordable. You know. He he hit Kansas City for seven yards per carry in the earlier match up. It was only nine carries, so it wasn't a big sample size. Like I said, they didn't run much, but still seven yards per carry on nine carries pretty good.

The Browns ran for five yards per carry against the Chiefs in the playoff game, but again, overall, the run defense is pretty good. I like Ronald Jones at thirty three hundred a lot more than a Leonard four net at eleven thousand dollars. He's a draft Kings numbers eleven thousand, So you gotta pay three times as much for Leonard Fournette. Now, I know Fournett is coming off the better game, but if you've watched a moment of Buccaneers football this year,

you know how inscrutable that backfield is. And just because four net got more work the past couple of weeks, and especially while Ronald Jones was getting healthy, doesn't mean that he's gonna get more work here. So I prefer Ronald Jones. I've gotta be grade on Jones. I've got a C grade on Leonard four net and and really hoping that I think he just catches more passes. Um. I don't know that Fournette gets much done here, and

he didn't do anything in the previous matchup. In the Week twelve matchup, he had just three carries for ten yards and three catches for ten yards. So if you're gonna have this really difficult to decipher backfield, I don't want the guy that costs three times as much Leonard front. I will take Ronald Jones. All right, let's go to the passing game. Tom Brady clocks in at fifteen thousand dollars. These are you know, these are not the normal DFS prices.

It's because uh, and I should mention this at the outside, I guess. But you know, if you care enough about the draft Kings angle on it. Then you probably already know it's all flex players, and as all flex players, all the all of the dollars changed pretty dramatically here. So Brady comes in a fifteen thousand. He threw four

five yards and three touchdowns in the earlier matchup. Again, lots of volume in that one, playing from behind um multiple touchdowns for Tom Brady in ten straight games coming into this one, and the Chiefs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in nine of the last ten games. So you know, the part of like about take Brady is you don't have to guess which one of his many receiving targets is gonna get paid. If you've got Brady, you know you know what you're gonna get. You know, you get

all the passing touchdowns. You don't have to guess if this is gonna be a an Tonio Brown game, Scotty Miller game, a Tyler Johnson game, and Chris Godwin game, a Rob Gronkowski game. You know you camera braid. You don't have sat any of that stuff. And that's really appealing for me as I try to decipher this, and that's part of the reason why I would take Tom Brady I've got to be grade at him on him

for fifteen thousand dollars um. I the receiver I liked the best at his price point is Chris Godwind two hundred dollars earlier. In the earlier matchup, he led all of the Bucks receivers and targets and receptions. He runs primarily from the slot, as you probably already know, um, although we have seen him run a bit more outside when Antonio Brown got hurt. But Brown is expected to play from the slot. He'll face off against talented rookie

Legarious Sneak. Sneeth has been good, but you could reasonably ask is this moment too big for a rookie from Louisiana Tech who has played ten NFL games? It could be. Will they test him early? They might? I would. I would test la Legarius Snead and find out just how ready he is to go. And I like Chris Godwin in this game, and that's why he comes in with a B grade. I like Mike Evans as well. Twelve thousand, six dollars. He had two scores in the earlier matchup.

He's the NFL's most targeted player inside the ten yard line now Evans runs from all over the field, but most often he runs on the left side row matchup with Bushad Breeland, against whom he has a six inch and thirty five pound size advantage. Freeland got beat for a touchdown in the week twelve matchup, I'll mention that. And for Evans, his three playoff games, he had a ten target one nineteen yard a game, then he had

a touchdown, then he had a touchdown. UM should be fully healed at this point with the with the extra week off, I like Evans as well also be great for Evans. So Evans and Godwin, to me, both guys that I think are do make some sense. Although again I think Brady is the safer place. You don't have to guess which receiving option is going to be the hot hand. So that brings us to Antonio Brown is

the next wide receiver to talk about. He's I think that's too much money for a guy, although he practiced in full on Friday. And there's a contrarian angle here where people just aren't gonna, aren't gonna want to risk Antonio Brown because he's got the the knee injury. UM, but we don't know what is snaptown is gonna look like there's always the risk of aggravation on the injury. So that's a Bucks is a lot for an injured player, and I think the only way you take Antonio Brown

is if you want to go contrarian. The other receivers are are pretty interesting in that Tyler Johnson's only eight hundred bucks ian practically free spot. He only had nineteen snaps last week with Antonio Brown out. UM whether or not they would put a rookie receiver in the Super Bowl in a position to have to make a big play,

I'm not sure, and that's a that's a fair question. Um. He plays on the outside, and he's got neutral, relatively neutral matchups on the outside, probably slightly negative matchups actually UM against Brenland Award on the outside for Tyler Johnson und Bucks though, is is pretty compelling. One of the cheapest plausible players you could put into a draft Kings lineup.

Then the last receiver, Scottie Miller coming in Bucks. I liked him a lot more when Antonio Brown was looked like he was gonna be out, But it looks like Brown's gonna be in. He played UM quite a bit last week. With Brown out. Now your angle on Miller is basically this, He's super fast and the outside cornerbacks Bland Award are slower on the slower side. There four six guys for five guys, and so that means that

Miller's got a chance to break a long one. And if you're in a bigger contest, maybe that's an angle that you could you could try to work in for for Addie, Miller average sixteen yards per reception, so you know, if you just get maybe three receptions out of him, you know you're you're sitting at a pretty decent game right there, and maybe he breaks a long one. So that's your home run play, I think, is Scottie Miller. Let's go to the uh. The Tampa Bay tight ends

Cameron brad missed Friday's practice with a back injury. It looks like he's gonna be a game time decision. Back injuries are are tricky, They aggravate easily. He had six targets in the earlier matchup Um, and his usage has consistently gone up lately while Grons has basically been going down. But the injury and sharing with Gronk makes this a risky play at seventy. Still, you know he's been fantasy viable here for three fans for all three of the

Bucks playoff games. So there's a little something that you could get done with Cameron Braid here Bucks high risk. I think a lot of people will be really worried. Would it be because you don't miss a Friday practice? Um with It's usually it's a bad sign, needless to say. Then let's talk about Gronkowski. So if Braid is out, Gronkos Gronkowski Bucks gets really interesting. In the earlier matchup,

he led all Tampa Bay receivers. The earlier matchup with the Chiefs week twelve, he led all Tampa Bay receivers and yards um. He had six catches for a hundreds six yards. But since then his average game is three catches for twenty three yards. But again, if Braid's out, I think people are gonna pile on Rob Gronkowski. You might want to to at only hundred bucks. All right, let's take a quick break when we come back, let's

break down the Kansas City side of the matchup. Welcome back Paul Jarchie in with you flying solo today breaking down the Super Bowl from a fantasy perspective, and specifically for DFS play and Draft Kings in particular, That's where I'd like to play. I think myself and many of the people listening are d k n G owners, So you know, we want to support the company we own a little, a little tiny piece of why not. So

let's go to the Kansas City side. I want to start with the running game again here like we did on the Tampa side, because I feel strongly that you want to avoid all of the Kansas City runners. Levy on Bell maybe hobbling back is not even not even remotely in this conversation. Uh, let's go to Darryl Williams. A lot of people really making a big mistake here.

I believe seventy hundred dollars way too high. Clyde Edwards A Layer is fully healthy, practicing full and remember when he's healthy, the other runners get ghosted in this offense. The average game in the month before his injury, Clyde Edwards A Layer was averaging fourteen carries for fifty four rushing yards for Darryl Williams. The month of games before Clyde Edwards a Layer's injury, he averaged two carries for ten yards, so we want know part of him, Clyde

Edwards Layer healthy. I think that moves Terrell Williams the bench, and I think your only prospects are a potential one yard touchdown plunge for Darryll Williams. That's it, And I don't think you want to play those odds. So he's at totally out. I mean, for me, Clyde Edwards Layer at ten five hundred, I'm not I'm not a fan at that price. I've only got a C grade on him at that price because I think it's just I

think it's too expensive. Let's go to the Let's go to the passing Gable'll start with Patrick Mahomes, most expensive player on the entire docket at eighteen hundred dollars, sorry, eighteen thousand dollars. Went berserk in the Week twelve matchup with four hundred sixty two yards and three touchdowns. He threw the ball forty nine times, and we are going to get a ton of volume in this game. Um

Tampa is the number of leagus. Number one run defense by well three different ways, Number one in rushing yards allowed, Number two yards per carry, and number three in rushing plays scene No team. No team gets run out less than Tampa, So you know it's gonna be a ton of passing for Patrick Mahomes. Foot is fully healed, so that's some good news for him there. Volume is gonna be really high. But the really big question here, how

is this gonna work without his two tackles. This is a huge question mark and one that could absolutely decide the outcome of this game. Uh, Mike Gremers is a massive liability. He's gonna be playing the wrong side of the field from where he normally plays. He shouldn't be on the field in my opinion, but he's gonna go from right to left side. Then they're gonna have a guard turned tackle, and Andrew Wiley was gonna have to

play the other side he doesn't normally. They got we got, We got both of the edges manned by guys who don't play there. It's a huge concern and should be. And I think it's going to mean that we're gonna see I'll get We're gonna see Patrick Mahomes get the ball out a lot faster. We're gonna see fewer darned downfield passes. I think that's going to affect Tyreek Hill in particular. Although getting the ball quickly to Tyree Hill is always a good idea too, um, but where he's

so lethal has been the deep downfield stuff. I don't know that he's gonna have time against the awesome pass rush that Tampa Bay can present against those backup tackles. Now. Also of notice, you're thinking about the Kansas City passing game. Tampa's two starting safeties, Antoine Winfield Jr. And Jordan Whitehead, both look like they're going to play, but neither one is, and so when Mahomes can get time to go deep, those safeties may not be in position to make the plays.

So that's that's another consideration that you'll want to have in with your Patrick mahomesh decision. At eighteen thousand dollars, and I've got to be grade on him. Let's go over to the wide receivers. Tyreek Hill is fifteen thousand, six hundred bucks. He had the explosive game in the first match up with two hundred sixty nine yards and three touchdowns. He was targeted fifteen times and he caught

thirteen of them, which is staggering. Hill run sixty of his place from the slot where he will face Sean Murphy Bunting, by far the weakest Lincoln on tampas quarterbacks cornerbacks. I know that he's got the interceptions in this playoff run, but just as a coverage corner, he's not that good. He allowed the second most touchdowns of all cornerbacks during

the regular season. He gave up eighty one yards in his coverage last week against Green Bay, and in the first meeting Sean Murphy Bunting allowed one hundred thirty one of Hills two hundred sixty yards, so roughly half of all of hills yards came against John Murphy Bunting by himself. He also gave up two of hills three touchdowns. So I like Hill. I've got an eight grade. I actually like him more than I like Mahomes at their relative prices.

Let's migrate over to Sammy Watkins sixty dollars. Um, I've got a integrate on him. I know he practiced him full on Friday, and he likely plays, but calf injuries are tricky. They're known for aggravation. He might be on a snap count and he did nothing in the first meeting with Tampa. He primarily plays on the outside, he'll see Jamal Deane and Carlton Davis. Those are both competent quarterbacks.

Watching Watkins match up his neutral six hundred bucks, I think I'd rather spend the money elsewhere, But if you want him at that price, I guess you could. And I thought about making him a see just for the contrarian angle, but I don't like my contrarian angles to be guys that are injured if I can avoid it, so I've I've got a bench grade on Sammy Watkins at sixty three hundred bucks. The other receivers, let's go

to me. Cole Hardman, eight four hundred dollars seems like a lot for a guy who usually touches the ball to three maybe four times. Last week was his lowest snapcount since Thanksgiving. And you know the deal on Hardman. You're just hoping that lightning strikes, maybe you get a fluke return touchdown or something. When Hardman comes on the field, he faces uh depth cornerback Ross Cockrell. He forces excuse me, depth cornerback Ross Cockrell to play a second slot corner um.

It's not terrible, but by the standards of journeyman backup quarterback cornerbacks is okay, and that's potentially a spot where Hardman could beat cock Rolls. So yeah, though, just it feels like too much money for a guy who's gonna only have the ball in his hands, you know, in most games, like two, three, or four times. So I've only got to see grade on Hartman. Um. Let's go a little deeper into the depth chart. DeMarcus Robinson Bucks is basically free. He was removed from the COVID list

on Friday. He went untargeted in the kind in the previous game, the Conference championship game total dart throw. But at twenty one bucks, that's actually pretty compelling, and so is Byron Pringle. And by the way, I've got a C grade in DeMarcus Robinson. I've gotta see great on

Byron Pringle, and I like Pringle better. He's only twenty seven dollars, so he's almost free to get this the Chiefs receiver who played the most snaps last week, Byron Pringle, who had the most snaps in week seventeen, Byron Pringle, who did Tyreek Hill go to bat four? In In with the media during Super Bowl week, Byron Pringle says he's got to get on the field more often. If Watkins doesn't play fully, if d Watsons doesn't play at all,

I really like Pringle. If Watkins is only going to be on a snap count or whatever, and you're not gonna know going in, Pringles a fascinating play um, So I'd give it. I'd give him some thought at bucks a C grade on Pringle, and I'll actually like him better than DeMarcus Robinson. He's been way more active than Robinson has. So then we get to Travis Kelsey. As we migrate over to the tight ends, I've got some concern here. First, let me I mention he was targeted

eight times in the earlier meeting. He caught all eight of his passes, but he did not score. Tampa has struggled against tight ends throughout the second half of the season, including Robert Tonyan's touchdown last week and Logan Thomas's big game in that wild card round. But here's the question on Kelsey that I don't think enough people are talking about. Is he gonna have to stay back and block to help out Ramors and Wiley, you know, those backup tackles.

I think I'm really nervous that Kelsey is gonna have to do a lot of blocking in this game, a lot. And that's why I'm I am more nervous about Kelsey in this game than almost any other game with Kelsey. Normally you just put him in and forget about him. Sixteen thousand five dollars a lot for a guy who's gonna end up blocking. Now. You know, obviously Kelsey's an elite player at his position, and he in just real life fantasy, not putting a DFS price on it anything else.

He's he's usually a sure thing. But boy, sixteen thousand five dollars for a guy who's gonna block a lot is really touchy. I've gotta be grade on Travis Kelsey, Um, but I don't think he's going to have the explosive style games that he has had so far in the playoffs. All right, there you go, you twenty minute long breakdown of one game. Normally in Fantasy Football Weekly we do our matchups in five minutes. This is a twenty minute matchup. Holy cow, um, thank you for thank you for tuning in.

This week, We've got a bunch more great. We really start shifting to offseason topics beginning next week after the Super Bowl. Uh. Great for Dynasty players, Empire players, does anybody who's looking ahead to the season. We're gonna start talking about some of the new coaching stuff. We've got some of their odds and ends of items that you may have missed in December that we'll talk about as well. Thank you for listening Fantasy Football Weekly talk to you

a week. Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.