The Peacock-Off

the league. Training camp is getting started now. This year, not only do we not have the preseason games, but we also have very little, if any media access to the training camps, so we don't have a lot of eyes on players. It's really we're really gonna be working

with a lot less information than we've had before. But that's not to say there isn't some news from around the league, and UM and Brian, I want to just bounce back and forth between some of the teams that we we know we want to talk about, and let's begin with the Oakland Raiders. What have you got? Derek Carr wants respect? Do you want to give it to him? Because I don't. I do. I think he's a bounced I think he's a bounce back candidate with improvements and

the receivers and he's basically free. He's got about ten wide receivers now to work done right, but he seems motivated. He can throw the ball behind his back. I saw a pretty impressive video, but no, not a ton coming out of Oakland. Other than that, I've note Henry Ruggs is going to play out of the slot, which I

think is not good news from a fantasy standpoint. He only ran seventeen percent of his plays from the slot last year, and Hunter Renfroe is still there and he's a good slot receiver, and so I that to me, this was news that i've that made me drop Ruggs a good tages Mots in my preseason ranking. Move Waller to the outside receivers spot right. They got, they got, they got session. Well it paid off kind of. I got more tight end ob session to talk about later. Ackers.

Devin Funch is opted out, leaving the number two receiver jobs seemingly to Alan Lazard. The undrafted free agent got pushed into action last year with injuries and ineptitude to the rest of the team's receivers. Lazard started three games last year. You may or may not remember, but was mostly nondescript. He topped seventy yards one time last year, but has the opportunity to start here. It's still in Aaron Rodgers led offense. So you know, theoretically the Packers

and Aaron Lazard will get better this year. Let's go to the Buffalo Bills. Trade Davious White, cornerback almost opted out, but he didn't. He did not, and that's only important because now he's going to blank a wide receiver one every week. If you don't know Trdavious White, you'll get to know him when the season starts, because you do not want your wide receiver going up against Trdavious White. But he will play. Did not opt out. The Texans.

Bill O'Brien says that will Fuller is fully recovered from his sports hernia surgery and quote looks as good as he's ever looked. With DeAndre Hopkins out, Fuller might be the biggest boom or bust wide receiver out there. He's got great quarterbacking and if you told me he could play sixteen games, Brian if if will Fuller play sixteen games with DeShawn Watson is a quarterback how high could he finish among receivers? Will Fuller play sixteen games? How

many monkeys are gonna fly out of my butt? But if he does that, he's a top fifteen wide recepeci exactly what I was thinking, Top fifteen widely. Biggest boom and bus receiver out there I believe is Will Fuller. Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. The only news I got. I guess it's kind of big news. No starters as far as I know, but four offensive linemen opted out. That's not good. Three guards in the tackle, so we'll see. Hopefully don't have any injuries up front, so they're gonna

be in trouble. The Colts offensive coordinators Nick Sirianni said that the passing offense runs through t Y Hilton. He said, quote, I expect to see a twenty eighteen version of t Y Hilton if he stays healthy. There's no doubt that's what we will see. He's still the main piece of

this offense. Those are strong words about t Y Hilton, guy nobody's interested in right now because he's coming up that bad year last year with Jakobe ber said and the injuries and everything way under the radar, I think, and going far too low. He's my number wide receive, my wide receiver number twenty. Yeah, I choose for that ceiling any day he's healthy. I like it too, And

and the best quarterbacking he will have had since Andrew Luck. Obviously, let's go to the New York Jets lost their two best defensive players in Jamal Adams safety via trade and C. J. Mosley opted out. So that doesn't means for fantasy purposes, more point chasing garbage time for that Jets offense. It's get a lot of Sam Donald garbage time. And there's some some some steam around Levian Bills. He's motivated in shape, they say going around RB eighteen could be value there,

but could be a bust. Well we shall see now who I don't have a strong stance on Levian Bill. I have stopped paying any attention to the preseason quote in the best shape life stuff right, That stuff never seems to really pan out. The Chiefs, as you already know, lost Damien Williams to opt out. But did you catch this little bit? They're starting right guard Lauren DuVernay. Tardiff opted out as well. He's a doctor, that's right. He is.

You may know him as doctor duven A Tardiff. He spent the offseason working in a long term care facility in Montreal. He's a Canadian. The teams signed journeyman Collectio Smile, who's going to start at right guard. Presumable likely started right guard in his place, but assembly is on his fourth team overall, in his third team in three years, and has been a total bus since his gigantic free agent signing with with the Raiders about four or five years ago. So of note, they're a bit of a

probable downgrade to that offensive line without him. Let's go to the Denver Broncos. Uh, nothing really out of Denver. Just a trendy team with a lot of new toys that people are excited to see. Okay, let's go to the Rams. And we touched on this a little bit last week, but just want to reiterate this. Sean McVeigh says that they're going to use a running back by committee modeled after San Francisco's hot hand approach that they

used last year. Um the quote. The quote from McVeigh is will go with the hot hand or whoever really expresses himself as deserving the carries. We've got four backs that we feel are all NFL legitimate starting caliber backs, and we're not feeling like you've got a force carries or touches to any of the four. That's horrible news for fantasy owners and enough to to make me feel like I'm just not gonna dabble in any of the rams back. I am somewhat changes away from that situation.

Let's go to the Dolphins. Um doesn't affect Vante Parker or Preston Williams, but Alan Hearns and Albert Wilson have opted out, and that does targets well, it opens up We're talking to them and like a sicky and someone named Isaiah Ford. He might may have not heard that name, but might talk about him a little later in the show. We'll look forward to that. The Vikings. Dalvin Cook did report he had threatened to hold hold out, but he is there. Running backs have no leverage in this NFL.

And Justin Jefferson went on and off the COVID list, but he is back. Let's go to the Patriots. Uh. Patriots, Cam Newton posed for a picture with his wide receivers. They were all dressed kind of crazy, especially Julian Edelman. One stood out, and that's because he was taller than Cam Newton's shoulder level, and that is in kill. Harry another guy we're gonna talk about more, but no. Newton and his receivers are Jellen. But I'm excited about Harry.

Will get to him a little bit. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger says that his elbow feels good and that he'll be on a pitch count during training camp. But good news to see him throwing, feeling good and not having any remaining problems from the elbow, although none were expected. Let's go to the Titans. Uh, nothing for Tennessee other than the first training camp without Delaney Walker in a long time. That just means it's John new Smith season,

right Church, Don't don't steal my thunder for later. Okay, thank you, Let's go to the years. The wide receiver situation very model was Deebo Samuel out for training camp and likely into the season. Travis Benjamin then opted out for the season. First round pick Brandon Ayuk almost certainly starts, with either Jalen Hrder Kendrick Bourne as the other options to start for the forty Niners. Let's go to the Bengals. Brian, I know we just said let's not read too much

into the he looks great tweets and videos. But A J. Green looks great right now with him in burrow and right round wide receiver twenty eight going off the board. Uh, that's a little too low. He is a league winner if he stays safe, and I'm hoping for that. Yeah, he's another really boom or bust guy that could end up being a winner for Bill the Core with t Y Hilton, A J. Green. Here we go. I like that. And they're all cheap. If you sloft wide receiver, this

might be the angle, all right. The Ravens Marquis Brown gained twenty three pounds in the off season and is now playing at one pounds. I don't like this news. I don't. I don't want my my small, speedy receiver to get way down by twenty three pounds. A muscle, even if it's a muscle, it's still muscle. You gotta over ound. I don't like it. Speed guys don't need the bulk eye to me. I find that worrisome. Let's

go to the Jaguars. Uh, their paper thin defense just lost three more players too opting out, So more garbage time coming for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but going to be a very fantasy friendly team. As we've discussed many times on this show. Yes, it's shockingly fantasy friends one. We believe Washington and the defense really primed to be the worst defense in the NFL. In the past, you you would fade Jacksonville games because you're afraid of the defense

of the offense. Now it's the complete opposite. It's it's it's open season in Washington. One of the great stories of the offseason. Alex Smith cleared to play. He is practicing and reportedly impressing many in the Washington camp. That's you know, you could only hope that this has almost a miracle finish and ending to it where Alex Smith is back starting again for the Washington football team would

be fantastic news. Your final team is the Chargers. Brian Chargers were one of three teams did not have any players opt out, and I think that's because as they're on hard knocks and they want some camera time. But but of course are not a new quarterback and Tyrod Taylor will probably be unseated by rookie Justin Herbert. So that's about different. Alright. Last item of preseason news here, the Seahawks put where Shot Penny on the pup list.

He's recovering from a c L surgery, and it looks like this is he's not going to be a factor anytime soon. I don't believe that he has any chance of performing, barring injuries to Carlos Hyde Chris Carson and him returning maybe a mid season. I don't think he belongs to being drafted it all at this point. So Shot Penny not really on our radar. All Right, we're

gonna take a break. When we come back, we will be joined by other co host Matt Harrison, and we will talk about our Bold Prediction section we like to call the pea Cock Off. In the pea cock Off, we are going to give you some bold predictions that you can peacock about. When they come right, you can pretend they're your own. I was gonna do the peacock sound, but Matt is way better. We'll we'll bring in the We'll bring in the official Peacock of Actually, hold on, wait,

here's it's been a while. Official Peacock Fantasy Football Weekly girl back in moments. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly with you. We are getting into the preseason training camps. Finally here my co host of Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison joining us. Now, guys, there's a segment we call the peacock Off. We do it every year where we make two bold predictions. We peacock If we get them, we forget they ever happened. Nicely done, I know I'm doing. Um, we forget it

ever happened if it doesn't. But we encourage you to just steal our our peacock offs for yourself and that way you can do your own peacocking when they come. Now, the premise of this is he's got to be bold predictions. I don't want any Wramsey Pamsy. I want things that everybody's gonna go, what are you even talking about? You're crazy? So that's the Yeah, we don't know. We do not Wramsey nor do we Pamsy on this show. Uh, Matt will begin with you your first of two peacock offs.

Austin Ekeler finishes as the top running back in the league, not two, not three, number one. He is ripped. Guy, Is it just because of the photos that went around social media of him with him shirtless, YEP. I just looked at that and I was like, that's the guy right there. Well, you want to make more of a case or is that enough? Sure? Two thousand, seven hundred seventy four yards. That's how many rushing and receiving yards were totalled by the Chargers backfield last season. That was

a top five yardage total as a group. Twenty two total touchdowns. That's how many times Chargers running backs reached the end zone last year, second best in the league. The Chargers led the league in running back receptions with a hundred and forty eight and led the league in receiving yards with hundred fifty seven. And we talked about vacated targets for wide receivers. How about just vacated touches

for running backs. Because Melvin Gordon leaves vacating two hundred four running back touches, which is with about seventeen per game. Austin Ekeler average twenty touches per game without Gordon last year. He can't go up a lot from that. Well, he averaged twenty without Gordon, he averaged twelve with Gordon, So it went down, So let's take that. Twelve will give him half of Gordon seventeen. That gives him about back to twenty. So there's only ten backs in the league

that did that last year, twenty touches per game. What's more, Eckler lad all qualified running backs in yards per touch at six point nine. He had seven yards every time he touched the ball. Christian McCaffrey had five point nine. So let's just give him a McCaffrey like workload. McCaffrey had four hundred three touches last year. We're gonna just give Eckler three fifty. It's about it's about twenty a game. It's about a hundred more than he had last year.

If you use that, if you use his pace from last year, Eckler would total two thousand, four hundred fifteen total yards this year and seventeen touchdowns last year. Christian McCaffrey two total yards and nineteen touchdowns. He's right there. He's right there, and they got a journeyman backup quarterback and a rookie likely splitting time under center. They're gonna go safe. They're going to dump it to Austin Ekeler

all the time. I like it that you you know what, You've kind of convinced me that was That's very very well done, Brian, your first of two pea cock offs. I'm saying, and kill Harry, second year wide receiver for the New England Patriots, outscores every key wide receiver this year. Is this because of a COVID angle? You just think a little bit of both. Let's just talk about Harry, the thirty second overall pick in last year's draft, right now going off the board as wide receiver fifty six

in the mid twelfth round. Rookie wide receivers going ahead of Harry, r Ceedee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, Jerry Judy, Justin Jefferson, and Jalen Reagor. But like I said, Harry will outscore them all. Why here's why last season was lost to injury. Only twenty three targets for Harry, who people are calling washed up and old. He turns twenty three in December. Nobody's calling you. Who's calling He's getting a lot of hate,

get a lot of hate. Wow, that is true. But nobody's called him washed at not well, He's been called a bust by some people. I'm not gonna say who. But anyway, six three to forty could have played basketball at Arizona State if you really wanted to. He will be the prime target for Cam Newton in the end zone. I don't know who else they're going to throw too. It's not to be Julian Edelman. It's not gonna be Mohammed Sanu. It's not gonna be demere Bird, Jakobe Myers

or Gunner old Zouski. All those guys are they when are talking to Cam, they're talking to him pronounced that right? And kill Harry looks at Cam Newton in the eyes. He's a man tight end. Matt Lacosse unlike Julian Edelman, I'm like Julian Edman. No, yeah, I'm not gonna go They suddenly androgynus Julian Edelman. Matt Lacosse has opted out starting tight end. That leaves two tight ends, two rookie tight ends for the Patriots, and uh, I forget their names,

Oh Devin and Dalton Keene. And look at the red zone competition for the rookies. I'm yeah, there really isn't much. Isn't much? Ceedee, Lamb's got Cooper Gallup Blake Jarrowin Jerry Judy's he's got Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant. There's nothing there for in kill Harry and he he is a baller. And if Cam Newton can make Kelvin Benjamin fantasy relevant briefly three years and he said he was the best

wide receiver. I remember that for all three weeks at the beginning of that season he was so Look, there's not a lot of tape. I'm just telling you and kill Harry. I don't have enough shares of n Kill Harry, go get him over any rookie White. Sounds like for those of you not in studio, fingers were pointed in this segment, I'm getting you gotta do a peacock off. All right, I'm done. I was loving the pointing fingers.

I love you guys, my peacock offs. Currently wide receiver eleven Judu Smith Schuster will finish third on his own team in Fantasy points among Steelers wide receivers. So doing the big fade on Juju. The last time Juju was great, Antonio Brown was on the field with him. Juju Smith third, Nope, no, almost almost keep working. You got you've got about I've got about sixty seconds and notes here, you've got sixty seconds,

come up with something about it. Juju was wide receiver sixty five last year, and everybody's very fast to just blame it on his quarterbacking. But he was the third receiver in his own team in Fantasy point production last year, Juju Smith sho, I think, but really, is it just that simple that Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges? Wait? Wait, how about Juju Smith shoes? Is it really that simple

that Rudolph and Hodges are just that bad? Because Deanti Johnson seemed to do okay, even James Washington outscored him. So I feel like that people are too fasciges dismiss it. Now, Jude is a free agent next year. And if he was in the team's plans and they felt like we're bringing him back, do they put the first pick in the Steelers draft at his position? Chase Claypool. No, they

wouldn't do it if they thought Juju was great. They know that we're gonna do whatever it takes to keep him, and they wouldn't feel like they needed the receiver depth. And speaking of muscle, that you don't like the speedy guys adding he both up big time too in the off season. UM, I think there's a very real scenario where Smith Schuster slumps to the fourth priority in this passing game behind Johnson, Washington, Claypool, maybe even Eric Ebron's

in there, and this team starts looking forward. And let's remember Steelers have a long history of letting product, good productive receivers walk. They don't mind doing it, and they'll keep bringing up new guys Judy Smith Schuster. We'll finish third or worse scoring among the Steelers wide receivers. Matt your second peacock off. Uh, the ancient Tom Brady at age fifty two, finishes as the top three quarterback this year. Here's why. Last season, Jamis Winston had a great statistical

year except for one category interceptions. He threw thirty picks in Tampa. So how long did it take Tom Brady to throw thirty picks? Well, you got to add his two thousand nineteen season, his two thousand eighteen season, his two thousand seventeen season, his two thousand sixteen season, and the last interception he threw in twenty fifteen to equal thirty interceptions for Tom Brady. Now you might think, sure, he's like seventy one years old, That is what I

was just thinking. But he's topped four thousand yards and eight of his last nine seasons, and he's never ever had weapons like this. Moss and Welker that was good in two thousand seven, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are better than the combination of Moss and Welker. And he's got rob Gronkowski, who he did not have in two thousand seven. Yeah, Kowski was just Robbie gronkows little

Robbie Gronkowski. He's also got O. J. Howard and my guy Cameron Bread that's significantly better than Ben Watson and Kyle Brady from two thousand seven. And I don't even say that the questionable running backs of a good shot of beating out Kevin Falk. So Brady's only danger here

is that his arm gets a little too tired. Because Bruce Arians throws over six hundred past attempts for Winston last year, five seven passing attempts for Arians offense in two thousand seventeen, with Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and Blame Gabbert over six hundred passing attempts in sixteen. You get it. He likes to throw. And you think, oh, Brady can't throw that much. He's four years old. He threw six d thirteen times last year. So this is gonna be

an offense that throws all the time. He's got the best weapons he's ever seen. There's a little bit of a revenge narrative here too. I can do it without Belichick. Tom Brady's gonna put up some huge numbers this year. All right, Brian, your second of two pea cock offs. Now I'm banging this drum for months. But now that we're back to the long format, more people need to hear that Dan Arnold will be a top twelve tight end of this season. And that is Dan Arnold of

the St. St. Louis Arizona Cardinals. Those are the Cardinals. He could the star field for St. Louis, the St. Louis Cardinals too, if you really wanted to. Dan is that much of the man. But Dan Arnold undrafted in seventeen by the New Orleans Saints as a wide receiver six six pounds, very similar to Darren Waller, a guy who I was touting last summer. That turned out all right, you know what I'm gonna throw a cherry on top. Dan Arnold outscores Darren Waller this year as well while

finishing inside the top twelve. That's a little bit. He's uh, he's been a project, but his time is now. He did not see real game action until the last four games of for Arizona. Saw thirteen targets in those four games, turn those thirteen targets into eight catches for a hundred and twenty seven yards and two touchdowns. I mean that is impressive production on that small usage of that small sample size that is going to grow incredulously this season.

Arizona is already saying he's a breakout candidate. Great chemistry with um Kyle Kyler Murray six, six to twenty, unstoppable in the red zone. I've just go back to all the past shows dan Arnold drafted with your last pick. You will not be disappointed. Um. You know what I like about that is that you are looking forward. And this is a season when with no preseason games, with no media access to training camps, most people are just going to keep replaying last year in their head, and

guys like Dan Arnold are eligible to emerge. And I'm going to give you another tight end that's going to emerge later in this show. But my second peacock off involves Aaron Jones running back for the Green Bay Packers, who I think is a good player who will score half as many points as he did last year fantasy points as he did last year. Are you gonna be so negative? Very negative? Both of these um a couple

of reasons. Number one, he house touchdowns from inside the five and an unsustainable rate last year, and he ended up scoring eleven touchdowns from inside the five. That's Emmett Smith in his prime, like production and normal mortal backs simply don't do that on any kind of a regular

or recurring basis. So there's going to be a regression of the easy touchdowns for Aaron Jones, not just because guys don't do it back to back, but also because A J. Dillon, a very large runner, surprising footwork, athleticism wiggle who scored thirty nine rushing touchdowns at BC thirty nine. He's going to house a bunch of those touchdowns that Aaron Jones feasted on last year. And then I'm just gonna add a couple of things. Jamal Williams remains in

the mix. And I don't think he's a special talent at all, but he never has been and they kept using him. And on top of that, the green Bay offensive line worse without Brian Bulaga. I think that's potentially a step backwards. With that offensive line, you're all that together, Aaron Jones is going to score half as many points as he did last year. There you go six pea cock offs that you can claim as your own, and at the end of the season you'll be peacocking with us.

It's one of our favorite preseason segments, the peacock Off. Do it one more time, Matt. That's that's cut. That's mid season peacock that's very That is very, very impressive. When we come back, we will talk through a draft strategy that you can employ this year that's kind of unique to this season. This isn't a strain. We'll get into it. There's a strange season which you can pull off all kinds of crazy drafts, draft strategies that you

can't in most seasons. Will tell you what that's all about when we come back, And as a reminder, if you want to try the freshest, coolest, most innovative advancement in the they're the peacock. Sometime later I get that peacock button around um the If you want to try the freshest, most innovative, interesting format in fantasy football, go

to Guillotine Legues dot com Guillotine Leagues dot com. Seventeen teams start the season, the low scoring team each week gets dropped out and their entire roster goes the waiver wire, where everybody else gets to feast on those players. It is a blast and you can play it at Guillotine Leagues dot com. Paul, Matt, Brian back at you in moments Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul char Chi in Guillotee Leagues dot com. My cohort Brian Johnson

also Guillotine Leagues dot com. Matt Harrison helps us out at Guillotine leagues dot com, but also just started a brand new site called shock Fantasy. Yeah. I've been doing my cheat sheets online, just selling them one by one, and people kept going, you know, can I just get a season passed so I don't have to buy them each individually? And I said, you know what, sure you can, so season passes to the dynasty trade value charts. Some best balled cheat sheets and all that stuff available at

shock Fantasy dot com. And I got a coupon code for listeners. Okay, f f W get to you your first years. What does f W stands for Fantasy Football Weekly? Hey, you're listening to that right now. This in this segment, I want to talk about draft strategies that can work this year. And I want to start by saying this, I've now been doing this professionally for twenty eight years. I've never seen a draft that is as deep as

this one. You can pull off any strategy. Now. This is saying a lot coming for me because I've been do the opposite guy for years and years saying, hey, take wide receivers and take don't take running backs early. You can wait on running backs. You can find them late. The preferred strategy here go wide receivers and go tight ends and and then start looking at running backs and quarterbacks later in the draft and not this year. You can do anything this year because there are good, so

many good players that you can get later on. So with that said, I have challenged my co host to come up with some unique drafting ideas that exploit the fact you can pull off almost anything. This year, Brian, I would like to begin with you, what is the draft strategy that fascinates you this preseason? Well, I love stacking offenses. And if there's one offense you think of first when it comes to stacking, it's the Chiefs, who uh had the most significant opt out in the fantasy

football world of Damien Williams opting out. Man, I think that really mutters muddies the water on trying to stack the Chiefs because Williams was a corner stone to it, because he was so ridiculously and wrongly cheap. He was going off the board in the eighth and ninth rounds of drafts and he was incredible value. He's gone. Yeah, there's been a very big butterfly effect from the Williams opt out. Before he opted out, he was very feasible to grab Travis Kelsey, Endoor Tyreek Hill in the first

and secure Mahomes in the second. When I say end Or, you could probably get Mahomes in the third even and get Kelsey and Hill and that that's not a guarantee, and then you could get uh Clyde Edwards a layer in the fifth, and then you go get Damian Williams in the ninth, and then you can grab me cole Hard in the eleventh, and you've got a five man chief stack with all the key players. Now that is all changed now that Williams is opted out, because the c h A. DP is now first round, first round,

it's it's mid first round. How am I going to execute this cheap stacks are talking about? So now now now there's a road has uh what's the Robert Frost poem to work in the road, something like that, there are two three falls in the woods. Was the guy who said it? First road, the road diverge in the woods, whatever that is. But now that this is the road less traveled, well, the Carmack McCarthy on the road again. Just can't wait, row ads, row ads. Where we're going.

We don't need roam anyway. There are two paths now to chief stacks now that Williams is opted out. The first is, uh, if you're in the seven or three to seven range in the first round, you can pull off the balance chief stack. I'm gonna call it, and it would go like this. He takes h in the first in the middle of the middle of first. You gotta take them homes in the second, because if you're

stacking the Chiefs, you gotta have Homes. I think you gotta have Home because you're not always right as to which receiver it's gonna be, but you want to make sure you've got the guy who's gonna throw all of those balls. Now, you're gonna miss out on Kelsey and Hill, which in the past you're gonna grab. But we'll talk more about that when we're not down the middle of

the rounds. And then, really, so you got Edwards Layer in the first, Homes in the second, and you just grab me Cole Hardman in the tenth, might as well grab Sammy Watkins in the thirteenth for the hell of it. And then you orsel should handcuff DeAndre Washington in the sixty. So that's your one path. That's the balanced attack. You're not too heavy in the passing game. You really just got Hardman, but you're still gonna get your share of

Kelsey and Hill through Mahomes right now. The second path is uh the aerial attack, and you get this in the late first round where you grab either Hill or Mahomes. You're not gonna get 'm sorry, Hill or Kelsey, You're not gonna get both. You still gotta grab Mahomes in the second round, and if you're gonna choose between Hill and Kelsey, I go Kelsey. He's the safer option. You're gonna get your portion of Hill and the pop off

weeks with Mahomes. But but it's so deep at tight end this year, which is something we never have the luxury of saying. But the differentiator with Kelsey still is so so vast. But uh, but then the rest really plays out, you know, as did in the earlier stack. You're you're gonna you're gonna get Hardman in the tenth hopefully, but you're you're not gonna have any part of the

running game. But I would advise you grab DeAndre Washington no matter what, no matter what league, really because he looks like a handcuff now, but he could still have a significant role spite or not being a handcuff. So long story short, the Chief stack not as ideal melt Will. It's not as concentrated. You're not as concentrated on the Chiefs, which is a good thing too, because you can go belly up if you go too heavily on a stack. But yeah, and the danger that we've talked about it.

I think in for several episodes. Now is if COVID sweeps through a locker room and it's the Chiefs, You've got a huge problem on your hand. And I that's that's there's a real scenario where much like the Marlins, the league doesn't shut down, but they shut down a locker room for three weeks. That could happen. And now now you're in a pinch. And we'll talk about a little more. In guillotine leagues, stacking any offense incredibly dangerous. We'll get to that in a little bit. All right, Well,

I we'll hit that a little bit later. Let's let's go to Matt. Your unique draft strategy that you believe will work this year. This is it. Could we could give it two names. We could give it the block, which I like to call it, where we could give it undo the opposite, because as I've been like, undo the opposite, But I don't know what you're gonna say. So as I've been playing around with some best ball

leagues and draft strategies and looking at them. Um, there's a strategy of taking three running backs in the first three rounds then and and be disciplined with this take three running backs in the first three rounds, no matter what, no matter what. Then your next five rounds wide receiver. So this is really the opposite. It is. This is the opposite of the opposite, and you're doing it in blocks.

So three running backs, then five wide receivers. Then you go back to the running back well and take two more running backs. Okay, and your last two picks are a quarterback in a tight end. Why would you do this? Yes? Why would I do that? Wide receiver is as deep as it's ever been. It is. I agree with that statement, but I think it stalls out a little bit at the end of round eight around nine, which is right in the area where you want to stop driving wide receiver.

Point all right, tight end and quarterback maybe deeper than they've ever been, and there's value at the very last pick in your draft. Talk about Dan Arnold and some of the other guys that we're going to mention a little bit. And running back has a bit of a cliff after round three. There's a lot of good running backs in rounds one through three, but after that it becomes pretty sketchy and you have to, like, you know, play with running backs that are you know, splitting back

fields and and that kind of thing. So here's how I've I've had a couple of scenarios that have played out, and I want to see if you like these teams that I've drafted using this block draft strategy. Well, let's I want to go with undo the opposite or undo the opposite? All right? Um, let's say, dear Dale, you go whatever you want, but I think I do the opposite is pretty brilliant. Undo the apo. Alright, let's say

you're picking towards the middle of round one. You have a team of Alvin Kamara, Miles Sanders, and Chris Carson. Those are your top three running back. I feel great about that. Feel good about that. So I don't love my receivers yet. Well, your wide receivers are Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, A J. Green, Jarvis Landry, and Ceedee Lamb. Can you go to war with those? I can? I can? I can go to war with that. Um, Now, let's get a couple more running backs. Can I have kill

Harry over Ceede Lamb? Sure, Okay, you don't have to take him that early. Philip Lindsay, But let's get Philip Lindsay and Zack Moss. Those are guys who are handcuffs not to my guys, but handcuffs to other guys who could pan out to be really big contributors this year. And finally we rounded out with Kirk Cousins and John hu Smith. At the end of our draft. You just threw John Smith. That's okay, But that's a good team, right, Yeah, I could go to go to war with that team.

All right, let's try Let's try it from a different draft position. Let's say a number one pick in the draft. So I got Christian Christian McCaffrey. The end of round two, according to a DP, you can get Austin Neckler. I can still Gettin and I can come back, come back, Leonard Fotah, I know that, I know you don't like. I don't know. That wouldn't be my choice. Okay. As a third running back, you could you could go get Chris Carson, or you could get Kenyan Drake. Is that

all right? So McCaffrey, Eckler, And for for sake of argument, let's say it's for net in this one. Wide receivers Keenan, Allen, Courtland, Sutton, Terry McLaren, Michael Gallop, and Christian Kirk. And I didn't go to war with those guys too. It feels good come back with a couple more running backs Keyshawn Vaughan and Alex Madison, guys who have an opportunity. And then you get Hayden Hurst and Joe Burrow at the end, or Hayden Hurst and Drew Lock at the end. That's

you can go to war with those teams. You don't need to draft a tight end or quarterback. Well, and I've still got more pictures than you're talking about, So I can go well round right, I can go Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew and you know, um, I don't know, pick another guy, Derek Carr. And you know, I know I could stack up. You know I can stack Tighten, I can stack tight late. You can get there's tons of guys late. There's Philip Rivers, all those guys late.

So the key to this is wide receivers and rounds four through eight are much more attractive and available than the running backs. And I'll give you a couple a couple of scenarios here. So in round four you get the choice between wide receivers Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, d j Moore, DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, Keenan Allen, a Great, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, and Levy on Bell. Are you're

running back options. If you're doing the opposite, you want to be taking wide receivers at this point in the draft. But if you're doing the opposite, you have to kind of start taking running backs there and they're not as attractive. Let's give round five for another example. Tyler Lockett, Stefon Digs, Robert Woods, Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, good receivers or Mark A. Graham, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary, Raheem Mostert. There's hey, but there's

question marks. So I like the opportunity of going three running backs early and then go the big block of wide receivers right in the middle. You know, I'll be honest, you've kind of sold me. And this is you know, this from somebody that has really shied away from running.

Just just the receivers are just so deep, and I really do think that that can afford you the luxury of taking these three running backs early knowing in all probability one of them is either going to be a bust or going down with injury, hopefully not two of them. If you get two of them right three, I'm in a good spot and that that could happen. Let's talk about my draft strategy unique to this year, and this is something people don't do nearly enough of. I don't

believe trading down. I thought you were going to do the opposite. Do the opposite. It's a new thing. I've just thought of trading down in the early rounds. We're talking about how deep this draft is, right, So let me ask you this. If you're you're at your draft, it's either virtual on zoom or you're all in person, you're massed up in the back yard or not masked

in the backyard. If you're massed up, if you're inside, whatever your situation is, at your draft, and you look at the other eleven people that you've got, your other team, the other team owners that are there, and you say, I will give my I will trade you my first round pick for your second and third. Okay, somebody out of that eleven is gonna take that deal, no matter where you are in the first almost, no matter where you are now. Obviously, if you're like pick one, you

could even ask more. I think you could ask for a second, a third, and a fourth, because somebody else is going to look at and go, I get Christian McCaffrey and another first and keep my first round pick. If your pick one, you can probably say I will trade you my first round pick for your first and second or what Yeah, it could be too um if you have Christian McCaffrey, absolutely so we'll trade our first

rounder for a second and a third rounder. So now I've got two seconds and I've got two third rounders. Right now, you sound like Rick Spielman, but we're not done yet. This is very Rick Spielman. That's area. If you come up with this really, then we're going to trade. Then I go back my I'm I'm on the clock with that second round, my first of two second round picks.

And I look at my eleven other owners and on the clock right now, is you know Nick Chubb is available maybe or Austin Ekeler or Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders is on the clock. He's available. And I look at these other owners and I go, all right, I'm gonna give you my second round pick for your third and fourth, and that person gets to keep their second. Somebody's gonna take that deal too, and I'm gonna do

it twice. I'm gonna do it with my first rounder and the or my second rounder and the second rounder that I got last time. So you're gonna have four third round picks and three fourth round picks. Now I've got seven picks in the third and fourth round. Seven. So let's look at the team we're gonna cobble together with seven picks in the third and fourth round. First, we're slough and quarterback Aldig seems like a good idea. Then, you know, to your the points that you mentioned earlier,

I don't need to take. You know, Mahomes and Jackson are gonna be gone, and those the only guy the quarterbacks, who really make a difference in this year. So we're gonna slough that out of this altogether. Now at the running back position, so here's my three, my my proposed four third round picks. Chris Carson, Levy On Bell, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans. Those are right there. I've got my starting

two running backs and starting two wide receivers work. In the fourth round, I'm gonna add in a little Jonathan Taylor, the rookie from Indianapolis. I'm gonna add an A J. Brown at wide receiver poised to potentially explode, and my tight end could be Mark Andrews, and an old dash of of Mark Andrews, who I love, is my number three tight end. You can get him in the fourth round. Just reading like a recipe to mettle half cup of

a little sprinkle of Jeremy Sprinkle. That's all. That's all the more you would want I think of Jeremy Sprinkle. So again, here's i'd be looking at setting the lineup with Chris Carson, laby On Bell, Jonathan Taylor as my running backs. I gotta start two out of those three. Maybe I flex some one in my receiver's Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans, a J. Brown start all three. If I need to start all three. That's a good team that I'm taking right out of the third and fourth round.

And by the way, my draft is not done. I still well, you know still that the rest of my picks I could go to war. All I'm doing, all I'm short right now is a quarterback away from having a killer deep lineup comprise entirely of third and fourth rounders, and you can get weird and take a quarterback in the fifth then have have your choice of anybody not Mahomes or Jackson, get to Shaun Watson and the fifth or Dak Prescott in the fifth round, and I get

like the top five quarterback if I want to. It opens up a lot of possibilities with this trade down scenario. So that's another That is another option. I think that among draft strategies that could end up working. And this the deepest draft that we've that we've ever seen. A lot of the reasons I think this is such a deep draft, guys, is the tight ends? Now? For years we've been like, well, all right, if you know, if you want to have a shirt thing tight end, you

gotta take one of three guys. You gotta get Kelsey, or you gotta get Gronk, or you gotta get zach Ertz. You're dead. People were clamoring to remove tight end. As a manager, of course, laughed in the face all of those not deserved. Did you point at them too? Of course? Right now? You know, Rob Gronkowski, who could be sitting on a fourteen touchdown season, is my tight end number seven. You know, there's so many good tight ends. Now if

you decide to sleft that position. Now you're looking at a Darren Waller, a Tyler Higbee, a Mike Gasecki um among a variety of other guys. Dan Arnold, Dan Arnold. You know these are all guys that you can reasonably

go to war with. And I think the depth and tight end really does enable a lot of the flexibility that comes with this year's draft, as when we come back three tough questions for a panel of experts, you get to play along see if you can go three and O. And if you're looking for my cheat sheets you can get them for free at gailloteen leagues dot com. A lot of the all my player rankings updated almost daily as there is new news guilloteen leagues dot com.

Look for my cheat sheets there as well. We'll be back and more. Fantasy Football Weekly coming up next. Welcome back. Kantacy Football Weekly America is the longest running fantasy show. We are here to help you dominate your league. It starts the preseason with your auction or your draft, and it's a quick note. We tend to frame things up in the form of drafts here, but we love auctioning. Huge supporters of the auction format, and we just count on you to sort of convert draft talk to auction

talk in your head. It's really hard to talk auctions. It is, you know, one of the chance one of the challenges of auctioning is I don't know even know when a player is going to come up, right, So you know, it may turn out that you know a player that we are really interested in. Austin Ekeler, if he's the first player thrown out, he's gonna go for one amount. If he's the if he gets thrown out in the middle of your of your auction, he's gonna

go for half as much money. It's just, you know, it's it's really really hard to talk about definitive put definitive numbers on auctions when you don't know when the player is going to come out. You do enough drafts, you're gonna get the same players if you're in the same draft spot. But every auction is different. But everything he could go for half as much money, or he could go for twice as much money because he's the last of the last of a tire that happens in auction.

Absolutely a great point. If Austin Ekeler is the last of the good running backs perceived running back, Oh dude, the price will go through the roof. Yeah, I've seen it happen so many times. It's a it's a great point where running back one. You know, somebody will throw out the top rated running back this year, Christian McAffrey. Somebody's gonna throw christ McAffrey early to siphon off a bunch of money. And it's a totally valid strategy. And

mc christian McCaffrey goes for thirty seven. Then later the last of the good running backs, Austin Ekeler comes out. He goes for thirty nine because the scarcity, the position scarcity hits because he's the last of the good perceived good. Yeah,

absolutely happens. And then you can have you have your running backs, and you're just sitting there bumping up the price for fun and watching other people scrambling to get the running back auction, or you're you have the discipline to sloft the running back position and you can be you can be bidding up with with no intention of having that highest bid. That's part of the beauty of

the auction. And we love the auction here. Let's get to our three tough questions, which traditionally begins with tough question Number one. Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arian says Ronald Owns will be his lead back, but he repeatedly talked up Jones last preseason two and it amounted to very little. Should fantasy owners trust Bruce Arians this time around? Bryan, I'm gonna trust him. The first half of the season was an absolute disaster for Tampa Bay. The defense was

a mess. They could not establish any form of running game whatsoever. They really righted the ship in the second half of the season and the second half of the season, Jones finished as a top twenty four running back in PPR, and according to Warren Sharp, uh mind, I respect more than most. Ronald Jones ranged as the top three red zone running back among those with twenty plus carries inside the twenty last year. And have you seen those calves on Ronald Jones. If he's got good calves, I'm in.

But Bruce Arians has always been a workhorse guy. He would run Kerwin Williams into the ground with the Cardinals if he had to. And uh, I don't think Keyshawn Vaughan he is nothing special. He's gonna be a guy, but he he wants Ronald Jones to be his starter. I think he's gonna give him every opportunity. And of course there's Tom Brady in the mix now, rob Ron

Krafsey the upgraded the line. But I will say this, Dare Ogunbally scares me because he's gonna, like last year, you know, all the pass catching work, and he's James Waite Jr. So I'm throwing that out there. But I'm gonna say I'm trusting Bruce Arians with this. Rojo take Okay, Matt, do you should fantasy owners trust Bruce Arians this time around? On Ronald Jones. I mean, if you want to talk about ordinary running backs, let's talk about Ronald Jones. Right,

Ronald Jones, Peyton Barber, that was an ordinary backfield. Bruce is going to throw the ball. I talked about a little bit with Tom Brady when when he was in my peacock off last segment and the final eight games last year, Ronald Jones topped eleven carries, which is not very much for a guy who's going to be a lead back only twice. He's okay in the passing game, but Dare is good in the passing game, and key

Shawn Vaughan might be good in the passing game. I really fear a three man backfield, as none of these guys looks like a real full time workhorse back, so I cannot trust Bruce Arians on this one. You gotta look at the calves man, all right. I want you to think back, everybody, two, rub your temples. Don't well, if you're driving right now, do not rub your temples. That you can rub your temples. Just keep your eyes open one temple? Okay? Uh, you know you really keep

both hands on the wheel. Um, I really would prefer you keep both hands on the wheel. It's hard with a headset on you really charged. We just need some chimes to think back like, we don't have any chimes on them. Oh sure, how do you think? What do you think of that? Somebody's going on a slayer ride.

It's kind of like diehards noted Christmas movie? Christmas movie? Alright, rubbing your temples thinking about great Ronald Jones runs, those times which I want you to produce that mental collage of high nights, the many highlights of Ronald Jones runs, and just string them together, one after another after another after another, Ronald Jones highlight runs. Now open your eyes. Yes, now open your eyes, and apparently you're dead because you've been driving with no hands on the wheel and your

eyes closed. There's to your point, Matt, he's so pedestrian. He was Pro Football Focuses thirty five best runner. There are thirty two NFL teams. He does not belong as an NFL starting running back. Now that's not to say that Keishaan Vaughan's any better, because I only Keshan Vaughn is particularly special either. Having spent a lot of time with his college tape, I see a guy who looks just okay. Now here's the real clincher on why Ronald

Jones can't be trusted. Last year, his Pro Football Focus ranking as a pass blocker was eight seven among running backs. What happens he misses an assignment and Tom Brady gets destroyed, He's out. No Oas for Rojoe, No, that's gonna be a massive problem for Ronald Jones. And you know what, his calves could stop him, though maybe calves of steel.

I understand that's going to be why you can't trust Ronald Jones because sooner or later, the combination of pedestrian running styles and terrible pass blocking ability is going to catch up with him. Tough question number two? Can Cam Newton be trusted as a QB one for your fantasy team? Matt Um No, he can't. The Patriots have been a top six running back rushing attempt team for each of the last four seasons. That doesn't count passes caught by

backs out of the backfield. That's just straight running. So what makes us think going from Tom Brady who threw over six hundred times last season to Cam Newton who hasn't topped five passing attempts in seven of the last eight years. By the way, a Cam Newton who has been injured and as was one of the more inaccurate passers throughout his career, what makes us think that they're suddenly going to become a passing team if you're reliant on rushing scores. He's averaged four per season over the

last four years. Tom Brady, who's good? Tom Brady, who is good? We have reason to believe finished as QB fourteen last year. That's outside QB one territory. And I think Cam is a downgrade from Tom Brady as a passer for for sure, he's the middle of the pack quarterback two at best. Brian is our fantasy owners safe trusting Cam Newton to be a QB one. Let's review

the track record of trustworthiness for Cam Newton. Starting in two thousand and eleven, finished his quarterback four quarterback four, quarterback five and I trust you Cam. Then team comes around quarterback seventeen, but the last quarterback one, yes, sixteen quarterback fifteen quarterback to seventeen quarterback fourteen law season. That's a that's a hell of a roller coaster ride. And I don't trust him. He can be, but not trust him to be. So no, you're saying no, they're saying no, Okay,

I'm done. Let's talk about Cam Newton's best and worst case scenarios here. First, let's cover the worst case and a little more detail than what than Matt outlined. If you're relying on Cam Newton's arm, here's the guy you got on per game average two hundred thirty one passing yards and one point four passing touchdowns per game over the last three healthy years for Cam Newton two hundred thirty one passing yards and one and a half passing touchdowns.

I want you to think at the end of your you know it's Sunday night and you're looking at your your box scores for your guys. If you're seeing two passing yards and one or two passing touchdowns, you're like, yay, oh wait, you're that's Andy Dalton. It's exactly Andy Dalton over the last three seasons, almost to the exact measure. You're getting Andy Dalton, who got benched last year. That's all that Cam's arm gives you. Remember he's also been a sub five quarterback in six of his nine seasons.

There's there's a scenario here where he's not a good enough passer. Maybe he doesn't even stay the starter here. If if and then of course the other worst case part of this is his health. We don't know if he's going to stay healthy or not. I mean, Cam's healthy right now, but Willie stay healthy. It's health has been a huge problem for him with the last five years. So worst case scenario here, he gets benched, he's ineffective, and he might not stay healthy. Your your best case

scenario is your Bill Belichick. Your quarterback has got a one year team friendly deal. Why not utilize his single best advantage running who cares if he gets hurt. He's not giving you anything through the air anyway, so you may as well run him. And he's not your damaged goods next year anyway. So maybe Belichick is just going

to run him. And that's where Cam gets special. And when Brian tells you that he finished one to four in various seasons among quarterbacks, it's all because of the running. Those are years when you ran in touchdowns. Maybe this will be the year that he goes back to running because Belichick doesn't have a reason not to run him. But everybody trusts the third year old quarterback quarterback. You can't. It's very very hard to count on running quarterbacks other

than Lamar Jackson, because Lamar Jackson gets designed runs. Nobody else does. Answer no, you can't trust Cam Newton to be your QB one, by the way, and fascinated him as a QP two. Oh yeah, tough question number three. Three notable type ends have new homes. Rob Gronkowski is now in Tampa, Austin Hooper is now in Cleveland, and Hayden Hurst is now in Atlanta. Which one of these new location tight ends will score the most Fantasy points

this year? Ryan Austin Hooper is not my answer, but he saw nineties seven targets with the Falcons last year. That was sixth most among tight ends. Hooper saw more targets inside the ten yard line than Julio Jones. Of course, who touchdowns is on the Browns now, So my answer is Hayden Hurst, who is now the starting tight end for the Atlanta Falcons, who had the highest passing play

percentage in the NFL. I don't believe Todd Gurley is gonna bring much to the running game, and this Atlanta offense is a well oil machine has always used the tight end as an integral part of their offense. I've won Atlanta tight end as seen at least eighty targets. That is a lot and eight of Matt Ryan's twelve seasons. Um, Hayden Hurst, Man, he's going to go off. That's all I can say. I like the other guys, but I like Austin Hooper is my guy. Sure, he's in kind

of a strange spot. Kevin Stefanski is a running coach. They got two good backs and two good receivers, and Browns have never thrown to a tight end. But Kevin Stefanski had two tight ends in Minnesota combined for basically Austin Hooper's numbers last year, and David and Joku wants out of Cleveland. He said so several times this offseason. Two good backs and two good receivers are good for an offense. What's good for an offense is good for an offense. They're going to open holes across the field

for Hooper to remain open. The Browns upgraded their offensive line immensely this offseason two, meaning the tight ends won't be asked to stay in and block nearly as much, which gives gives Hooper the ability to go run those routes that Brown's tight ends haven't been able to do before. So I think Austin Hooper is really going under looked, and he's going after both Gronk and uh and Hayden Hurst and a lot of drafts I'm seeing right now. I think Austin Hooper is in a sneaky spot here

that UH that will turn out really well. I like Austin Hooper as well, but he is not the correct answer now. Now. Rob Gronkowski is, as you may know, is now in Tampa Bay, as you may be aware. But here's the problem why I can't give it's also your firstborn son, Rob Gronkowski. I love Gronk. You'll remember I'm only like four seasons removed from advocating for Gronk to be the first player take um and actually worked out pretty well that year. The The catch, though, is

can anybody say Gronk's gonna play sixteen games? Did anybody say that, with all the other targets that Brady has, that Gronk will produce at the level that he used to with his old team. I don't think so, So we're gonna go we We are instead going to go with Hayden Hurst as the correct answer, although I've only got him one spot ahead of Austin Hooper. I think you're close, but you're not right. Hayden Hurst. Now he drops into the Austin Hooper role where Hooper was very successful.

Austin Hooper was averaging with Atlanta six catches sixty one yards half a touchdown per game. I will take that out of my starting running tight end in a second. Those are great numbers, and remember Hurst is a former first rounder. He's quite possibly a lot better than drafted before Lamar Jackson drafted before Lamar Jackson. I don't know why, but hayden Hurst is a good tight end, and I think people don't realize how good he is because he

struggled to beat out Mark Andrews. But Mark Andrews is awesome, and you could be really, really good, just not Mark Andrews good and end up in a spot where you find yourself with a very serviceable role. That's gonna be haden Hurst and Baltimore. They just ran, ran, ran, So hayden Hurst targets to go around absolutely absolutely when we come back. There's plenty more to go in the show. By the way, we've got best ball strategies that we're gonna talk about. A lot of people like to play

best ball. It's picked up a ton of steam over the last five or six years to talk about that. Well, unleash our latest series of sleepers and some gets league draft strategies as well. All of that coming up through the final two segments of Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charge and Brian Johnson Matt Harrison with you back in moments Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Georgie and Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson with you. If you are interested in

playing in a guillotine league. We encourage you to go to guillotine leagues dot com, where we have private leagues you can play. If you know seventeen others that want to play, or sixteen others including yourself, you make seventeen great and you can our platform will run your league. Or if you don't know that many people who want to try the coolest, freshest new format, then instead play one of our contests where you get to join with a bunch of other people you don't know on the

internet and house they're how many people know? Sixteen other people? Just do you even know? Sixteen? Sixteen other people alone? Sixteen other people who play fantasy well alone sixteen other people will talk to me, Well, legally you can't be within a hundred yards of sixteen other people, most of them, so you know that's you know, that's going to be a constraining consideration right there. Um In this segment, Brian want to talk a little bit more about guillotine leagues.

First one, don't you tell people how a guillotine league works. Yeah, it's it's fantasy football, but it's very different than the standard fantasy you're used to, and that you don't play head to head against anyone um. But again backtrack real quick, seventeen team league. Just draft your team very standard, but come week one you submit your lineup, but you're just playing against your whole league in the sense of the lowest score gets eliminated. So you just do not want

to come in last place. Don't finish last, and if you come in last, you are cut from the league. Your your team goes to the waiver wire and everyone can bid on the s Kwan Barkley's or you know, the early round studs that you had to forfeit because you came in last place. So now not that it will be you. You keep saying it to you, you're not. You're listening to this show. We're gonna help you out here.

You basically draft to not lose. It's that simple. And you really go on to focus on the first quarter of the season as well. I like to focus primarily on week one, but chart your cheat sheet on guillotine leagues dot com highlights the strength of scheduled by quarters of the season, right quarter, and you want to monitor that as the season goes along. But you really you

just got a draft. Avoid the high ceiling scary four guys, the high risk, high reward guys are dangerous, and the guillotine format because if you've got three or four of those style of players and they flop in the same week, your dad, you're beheaded. In your guillotine league. You want your safe, consistent players week after week that don't give you the goose a game. A great example, I think, look at the Cleveland Brown receivers. We've got Odell Beckham

or Jarvis Landry. Odell Beckham has got the big games and the bad games, but Jarvis Landry always catches passes, especially in a PPR farm, and he always catch pass doesn't score a lot. He's gonna go five catches for sixty five yards and you can bank on it, bank on it every week. He just doesn't give you the goose eggs that really really imperil you any guillotine league format. Yeah, one guy we've been harping on all preseason is Aaron Jones.

We will see you go in the first mid second of any any standard draft, but even guillotine league drafts. Over a third of Aaron Jones games last year he finished outside the top thirty at running back. You can weather that storm in standard fantasy football, Oh a bad week. You know, he's had a great matchup next week. But if your round one pick goes belly up, you're not

seeing next week. So yeah, while Aaron Jones was a top five runner last year, he probably wasn't on a lot of Guillotine League winning rosters because of those goose eggs that he put up. Yeah, yep, and that's so. That is a that is a key distinction for Guillotine League players for sure. And now now no one is more reliable almost at any position outside of Christian McCaffrey of course. Then then Michael Thomas only nine percent of his games were outside of the top thirty at wide receiver.

The next closest number is thirty three percent by DeAndre Hopkins, and Thomas of his games runs at the top twelve. No one even sniffed that. You can make a case that in the Guillotine League format, Michael Thomas should be the first player taken. You could, you know, just because the the unbelievable consistency that Michael Thomas springs, And in all honesty, you could make the same argument for Travis

Kelsey and George Kittle and This is all information. Again, you can get on with your g cheets charge on guillteen leagues dot com. This is very vital stuff for eighteen leagues. And from a quarterback perspective, Lamar Jackson seventy percent of his games he finished as a top six quarterback. Zero percent. We're outside the top eight team. No one else did that. No one Lamar Jackson had no flop.

And I mean Patrick Mahomes does that in a completely healthy well you would think you would think maybe, yeah, you think of be Mahomes. He was hurt Or Watson or Russell Wilson. Who had the next best ratio from you know, games inside the top eight and outside the top six scene. It was Ryan Tannehill, the next best one. Already two percent of it starts inside the top eight, only seventeen percent outside the top sixteen. So that's a guy no one wants. Yeah, nobody's like, I'm gonna pivot

my whole team on Ryan Tannehill. But he's the perfect kind of quarterback. You get late and he helps your You just gotta come him in second to last place every week. Every week. Don't and you'll be last and save your money and then you can splitterage on the big free agents. And just a couple other takeaways. You gotta pay attention to the bye weeks. Those are very tough to weather. Uh this year they start in week five. I know the Actors and the Lions have the first buys.

Those have the first buys. Don't go Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay in the first two rounds, go week five. That's gonna force you to spend your money on big name free agents. You cannot afford to have two studs have bye weeks that earlier, and in the same that early excuse me, and in the same vein. Don't stack offenses in uillotine leagues. Not the Chiefs, not the Ravens, not anybody. You cannot afford to put all your eggs in one basket in the Yioteen League because if something bad happens,

you are done. Including something bad. It's just like a seventeen point game. You know, a defensive touchdown, an offensive touchdown, and a field goal, and you're heavily invested in you know, pick a team bucks, that's it. There's seventeen points and see that could be that could be the end for you. If you're not careful. You talked about the bye week, so I want to spend just another minute on that. For Guillotine League. Remember you're starting that you're starting your

draft of seventeen teams. Everybody's team has very little depth starting the season because you've got seventeen teams. Now by the time you get to those first set of buys in week five, you've we've eliminated four teams, but still thirteen team league, and there you still don't have a lot of depth. Yet there's holes on the rosters. There are holes in the roster, and if you've got Kenny Golladay or you've got Davante Adams, you may not have

an adequate backup behind that guy. And here comes this bye week to a very important player for your team, and you can't necessarily fill it the way you'd like to. Now you might see this by week coming, and that means you have to You've got to spend fab in the first month of the season just to make up for those early buys. So the early buys really do change my Guillotine League rankings, and I really do tend to de emphasize those guys to that chart when rostering

a Guillotine League team and drafting. You really want to fill out your starting lineup before you start filling out your bench. You don't want to do my block draft strategy that I talked about early in the earlier in the show and wait till the end for tight end and for the opposite. Yeah, you want to make sure that you are filling out your lineup before you're starting to fill up your bench because you can't have a hole in the lineup. If if you get zeros in

the lineup, that's really bad for you. You can't you can't do it. Now. Savvy listeners might be thinking, well, all right, Mr Guillotine League, but if I avoid all these early buys, it's just gonna bite me in the ass later and I'm not gonna make it to the end. But here's the thing, these players that you speak because every week a team is getting cut out of the Guillotine League and their entire roster is going to the

waiver wire. By mid season, your roster's gonna look very different, and by like the two thirds point of the season, your roster is almost entirely different, and you've got more fat players because you weren't forced suspended because of the early buys hopefully not right, you should and you should be in a position of strength from a bidding standpoint.

And man, let me tell you when it's week ten and teams are getting cut in week ten, those are some awesome, awesome rosters that are getting cut at that point, and a lot of those players who got cut already had thereby, so you really don't have to worry about those later buys coming to to bite you in the US. Later you're gonna be okay. What do you guys do for your fab budget? Um? As far as how how how do you process it? How do how do you look to save it? Do you like to spend early?

Do you like to wait until the later ends of the season. How do you guys like to do? You're you're tempted in week two? You see there's gonna be big names on the waiver wire. You don't play out week one, for example, as as the a team that you're gonna get, the low scoring team is gonna get cut in week one and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire. So that means you may be looking at Alvin Camara and DeAndre Hopkins and Patrick Mahomes and

Kenyan Drake and Stefon Diggs. You know, you know those of the you know, those could be five or six players that were on that team's team that are all all bit able at that point. And the big mistake people will make is you see all those big names, like, oh my god, I gotta get some of these guys because they're gonna help me win in the end. I just want guys who're gonna help me not lose in

the second week where I can save money. So on a high level, I just say try to, you know, hold onto your money as long as you can avoid the urge to splurge early on. I know it's bitten me in the past. I don't know about you charge under Matt, but uh, I think the high level strategies hold onto your your FAB as long as possible and

just don't come. And last, you have to hold onto as much of your free agent pitting money as long as you can because the teams that are getting cut in weeks eight and ten and twelve are superstar teams and you need to have FAB to bid on those

superstar players and controlling the board. There's no better feeling when you know you control the board and have you've got You've got a lot of money, and definitely watch what the other players have for their money too, and and kind of think, oh, this guy is only going to spend eighty four dollars because he only has eighty six in his budget. That's how high you can go. Yeah, absolutely, Um, all right, so the only the only time I'm spending fab early is if I'm in real danger to get

knocked out. As an example, you spend your first round draft pick on Christian McCaffrey. Christian McCaffrey snaps a femur, alright, or Tyreek Hill last year, right, he got hurt and great example, Tyreek Hill Week one. And I don't have an adequate replacement. I don't want to. I don't I'm not taking eight dollars to my fab grave doesn't do me any good. So at that point, I think you

gotta go in. But only spend money in a guillotine league when you have to because you're legitimately worried about getting knocked out. Alright, some guillotine League strategy for you right there. When we come back, we'll talk best ball strategies and unveiled this week's sleepers. We gave you three sure fire winners last week, how about three new guys this week? And again, if you would like to play in a Guillotine league, we encourage you go to Guillotine

leagues dot com. You can exercise some of this newfound strategy right there, play for any amount of prizing that suits you, or use Guillotine Leagues to come to run your private league with your friends. Back in moment's Paul Charchy and Matt Harrison Brian Johnson with you Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to the final segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Arch and Brian Johnson. Matt Harrison with you again. Matt's got a brand new site called chock Fantasy. We

encourage you to check that out. I've been using his Dynasty value chart for years and I won my Dynasty league last year. I'm taking an opportunity to do this. Is it because of my chart? Only because of your tank? And here's the funny thing. The record show Matt and I are not in this league. You're not that one I've got. I need to use your chart right now because just in the last hour I received this trade offer. I've got picked twelve in the draft because I've because

I wanted, I got the last pick. I also have picked fifteen single QB or super flex super flex, and I have Julian Edelman. That is, and I have the offer is Julio Jones for pick twelve, pick fifteen and Julian Edelman. Now. Of note in this of of not of very real consequence to me, I don't have anybody to drop for a draft pick. My team is so stacked, I don't have I'm gonna drop. I'm gonna have to drop Aaron Rodgers or Hockinson or t J. Hockenson if

if I to just make a draft pick. So moving the picks is absolutely possible for me, and I can use your Matt Draft your dynasty value trade chart to help me figure out if Julio Jones at one, as I'm built to win right now, is worth fifteen pick twelve and Julian Edelman, as I'm looking at it right now, you're paying a little bit of a premium with those two draft picks. This is a deep rookie draft. But if you've got nobody to drop, it's okay. I would see if you could maybe respond with an offer that

gets you a draft pick next year. That's what I said, second round, maybe a second rounder next That's build a little equity into that. UM. Matt puts numeric values to every player and every draft picks. You can addup all the numeric values and figure out which side of the deal you should be on. UM. But I also have some intangibles to sort out in my case, like I'm a draft pick to give, I'm a player, I'm a player to drop. I don't want to give up in

t J. Hockenson really good. I think remember Week one last year? Yeah, let's strapolate that. Yeah, let's right, let's just extrapolate that. Remember Sammy Watkins Week one last year? In the final segment, that's right, in the very similar in the final segment of every preseason show, we unveil three sleepers, and in some cases these are guys that we have talked about in previous shows a little bit.

But we know we've got a lot of new listeners now that we're back in our traditional over the year positioning that this this show has become accustomed over twenty six years. Brian, who is your sleeper this week? So last year the Miami Dolphins wide receivers finished seventh overall as a unit in receptions. And that's the first half of the season. Davante Parker did nothing. It was all Preston Williams. And the second half Davanta Parker emerged. Preston

Williams got hurt and it was Albert Wilson. Alan Hearns a mess, and we we mentioned in the first segment, Alan Hearns Albert Wilson have opted out. That's a lot of targets, not a target, a lot of targets for Isaiah Ford, who is now the three wide receiver for the for the Dolphins. Rookie out of Virginia Tech. Last season, he was drafted in the sixth round, opted out of his senior year, so he came into the league a

little young. He's got a good size six to fifteen. Um, Miami is gonna be chasing points all year long, and Preston Williams got hurt last year. I'm not sold. DeVante Parker is rock solid at this point. Yes, Mike Asiki will reap the benefits of these uh vacated targets from Hearns and Albert Wilson, but Dynasty League guys and even anyone and gals and anyone, uh even redraft. Isaiah Ford is going to be a thing at some point this season,

especially if there's an injury. But even with that one, he will have a significant role in Week one as a reminder of Isaiah Ford. And you probably don't remember, and I don't blame you. At the end of last year, forced into service for the Dolphins because of all the injuries they had at the wide receiver position. As a rookie, seventh round rookie last year for the Dolphins, he had some pretty good games. He had a ninety two yard game, He had a sixty eight yard game and a fifty

four yard game in December of last year. And maybe and if Preston Williams leg isn't right and the knee isn't right, coming into this preseason, Isaiah fog starting wide receiver and he's going off the board as pick nine hundred eight, right, So what what draft goes to nine eight? Apparently? So he's picked nine according to Found Team Rosters, Good Heaven, Matt your sleeper this week. H Mine's not as deep as that, there are not as deep as no. Uh,

Mine's just James White, good old fashioned James White. Because Church, I have a question for you, Sony Michelle any good. Sony Michelle stinks he's a reminder of his official nickname on this show, Sony Walkman. Yeah. Why because he's walking man and he's trying to run, but he's walking. He's not even doing that. He might be Sony hobble Man

right now because he's got a foot injury. Backing Michelle up uh Rex Birkhead who spends most of his season on the injured list, and second year back Damien Harris, who wasn't active for most of the last season because he was active one game. I believe he doesn't play special teams, and Bill Belichick hates it when you don't play special teams. Look at Brandon Bolden, who's been on that roster as a running active every game, active every

game because he's a special teamer. So James White stands to be a guy who can just jump into the backfield and he's averaging eighty receptions per season over the last two years. Cam Newton hundred and fourteen receptions two runners in two thousand eighteen and receptions to runners in two thousand seventeen. There's there's some there's some receptions that are going to go around, and his average depth of target isn't very high. It's not a great group of

wide receivers. We have rookie tight ends there. I think James White is looking at a really sneaky good PPR year. What about Damien Harris though, as a as another as a sleeper here now Davia Harris is going off the board as player one three. It's not nine, but it's not nine. But if Sony Michelle either isn't good, which is very very possible, that doesn't matter. Or Sony Michelle doesn't play special teams either, he's active. If Michelle just

isn't good. Now, remember Damian Harry. They invested a second round pick in Damian Harris last year. I wonder if Damian Harris doesn't just take that job with eight Patriots of opting out, I wonder if they're just not playing the worst possible lineup every week and tanking for Trevor. I don't know. I kind of wonder it might be Sony's year. I think Damien Harris is uh is another who's getting Trevor. I say the Bears tank most successfully

for Trevor Lawrence. What about you guys. Yes, the defense is too good. No, it's not. It's a defensive line is awful. Quarterbacking is I'll use bad words if I get to that. I think he stays in the South Carolina or Jacksonsonville, Chicago. I don't know the Mississippi mustache. He's pretty good. My sleeper this week is a guy that I have referred to in the podcast version of offseason podcast version Fantasy Football Weekly. But I know there's

not a lot of new listeners right now. John U. Smith. Oh, my man crush on John U. Smith is unabated. Current ADP is round thirteen. He will be a top ten tight end and maybe higher than that. Let's let and it just seems like he could have been a peacock Off candidate. You could have been, uh John And I thought about it, by the way, Jonnu Smith, But the peacock Off was all negativity. This is all positivity with John U. Smith, third year tight end last year in

a limited role. You may remember Delaney Walkers started the season as the starter, but he got hurt and as the season progress they gave John Smith more and more use. Last year among tight ends, he ranked John Smith number one in contested catches, number five in true catch rate, number two in yards per target, number seven in yards per reception, number eight in yards per route run, and number four in yards after the catch. That's John NU Smith.

Last year was essentially lost to injury for him to not saying he was sorry, not ready. He was ready to, you know, unseat Delaney Walker. But he didn't get any reps. Unless Corey Davis is suddenly going to turn into the player he's never been. John OU Smith is the Titans number two receiving target, maybe number one. Well a J. Brown is I mean, I mean a J. Brown's A J. Brown didn't get the targets last year though, and John

Smith certainly is right and right there. You want to watch something special, go google John stand up there for a second. Jon Smith unbutton a button on his shirts last year. I believe it's Week fourteen. He's playing a playoff bound Houston team and they line up John U. Smith as a half back and they give him the ball on a designed run and he runs for fifty seven yards. He's a tight end running for fifty seven yards, out running members of the secondary. John H. Smith's athleticism

is bonkers, and if you don't know. It looks like Derrick Henry, it does. You think it's the head because he's huge. He said, he's built like a tight end. If you weren't, if it weren't for the lack of dreads, you assume that's Derrick Henry making that run. Dread lack that's awesome. Is out on that note, I think we're done. Um, Matt, So there you go, three sleepers. I gave you John new Smith, Brian gave you Afford and Man gave you James White, which I then pivoted to Damien Harrison. Thank you,

no problem. I'd like to give you the right answer from time to time on this show. It's not three Tough Questions segment anymore. It's not I can't always be right. Let's talk at some of the best ball strategies people are employing this season, Matt, real quick for those who don't know what a best ball league is, and there's quite a few. Um, you draft a team, there's no trades, there's no roster moves of any kind. You don't set

a lineup. After the completion of every NFL week, the computer sets your best possible lineup based on your scores. So each week you get the optimized lineup, so we're best ball is perfect or people who love to draft, but you don't want to add to the in season maintenance of your team because there is no it is literally no nothing you even can do in season. But you get to have drafts over and over and over again,

your draft and you watch. Um. Most of the time, people play several of these because drafting is super fun and often they're available at low costs. I like to play like three dollar ones and the sight I'm playing on right now it's called Underdog Fantasy. It's a nice little new app. But there's a lot of really good sits out there. F f PC, Best Ball Tens, Yahoo DraftKings is now doing it too, um, so you can you can really find them anywhere. Uh, there's a lot

of really great data on best ball strategy. And here's a few highlights of things that I found. According to Chris Allen at four for four, here are some of the successful draft strategies on f PC and Best Ball Tens last year. An f f PC, the top draft strategy over the first six rounds is to leave with three running backs, two wide receivers, and one tight end.

All right, that sounds very neutral. Of the winning teams last year had that exact strategy strategy coming out over the first six rounds on Best Ball Tens it was three running backs and three wide receivers. Of the winning teams on Best Ball Tens had that draft strategy. So you want to take a quarterback in the first six rounds, go get Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson because it's fun. Less than six percent of league winners had a quarterback

in the first six rounds. They're off limits. Don't take them. Well, keep in mind last year Jackson side of the top six rounds, he's a he was, he was an eighth round a DP and and to that, over the last five years, quarterbacks with top twelve ADPs. So the top twelve quarterbacks taken in these drafts, only fifty six percent of those players finish as a top twelve quarterbacks. So

there's a lot of variants at that position. So taking two to three decent quarterbacks really late tends to be the more prudent strategy and Best Ball leagues and there's a lot of different ways to play a Best Ball league. You can do it. Do the opposite draft. You can do like my undo the opposite block draft strategy. Brian, you you like one called hyper fragile. Tell us about that one. Well, yeah, and really though I don't know

if I like it as much of this year. What it is hyper fragile is you draft three running backs with your first three picks, three best running backs you can find, and then that's all the running backs you draft. No handcuffs, but no nothing. In the past years, you know, tight end and wide receiver weren't as deep as they are this year, or quarterbacks. So I'm not so sure I love hyper fragile. And like you said, that's just under the opposite Now, that's what it's gonna do. It's

gonna draft three quarterbacks, sorry, three running backs. But when it comes to drafting running backs, if I'm missing out on the big guys, one thing I like to do is target them the back fields that nobody likes. Like the Patriots, I can get Sony Michelle, Damien Harris, James White. You don't have because the best ball you don't have to figure out which one is the right one. The system just gives you the best one. Every you get the best one everywhere there are there are a plethora

of backfields like that. I mean, Washington comes to mind, various guys, how about them? To me, the Ram the Rams are dead to me in any format the Rams backfield except best ball, where I don't have to pay a premium for any of the Rams backs and I don't have to guess which good game. Yeah, I think like the lion stands out to me with a swift and carry on. You're gonna pay more for swift, but not not so and so that's what I like to do a lot if I miss out on the mccaffreys

in barkleys. So generally in a best ball league, you want to go for the high variance players. It's the opposite of a guillotine if you want to go for the high upside and and maybe the guy who gets you nothing in a week, because that doesn't matter the Robbie Anderson's of the world. So you can look at those secondary like chiefs wide receivers for instance, me Cole Hardman,

DeMarcus Robinson, even Sammy Watkins. You can put two or three of those on your team and a couple of weeks where those guys pop off your golden Yeah, that's all you need. You don't necessarily need to have Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelsey every week. You just need those guys to pop off every once in a while. I want to give you in our final about two minutes

of this show, Okay, I want to give you. I'm gonna give you four running backs coming off bad years but walked right back into being the starting running back on their team. And tell me which one you think is most likely to have a rebound ye A fourth tough question. It is Levy on Bell, David Montgomery, James Conner, and David Johnson, all guys with bummer years and they're all starting again this year, so you could you're gonna take one to have, but you gotta put one on

your team. Your rostering Montgomery, he's a Connor and David Johnson a man that's a tough one. Not Montgomery. I'm out on Montgomery. I'm gonna go Connor. He's got gas in the tank. He's way better than any running back on that team. And Tomlin is still a Bell cow kind of guy. And uh, I'm not sold on the receivers. I'm gonna go on it. Okay, I like DJ though I don't mind Montgomery because there's not a lot of

there's not a lot of challenge to him there. But I think I'm going David Johnson because they made that big DeAndre Hopkins trade and Bill O'Brien's got to prove that that worked. He's going to hand him the ball ton. You know what, all these guys are, three of these four having common are terrible offensive lines except James Conner. So I might just go that way. But I don't think James Connor is ever gonna be a workhorse again.

I think I think he's the guy who's just on a pitch count every week, and that that part worries me as well. Maybe on Belle at least you know he's gonna get the ball a lot. So maybe that's the angle. Uh. If you want to play at Guillotine leagues dot com, we encourage you to do so trail out that new format. Also get my cheat sheet for free at Guillotine a leagues dot com called Charchy and Matt Harrison, Brian Johnson. Thank you guys, a great job.

Thank you for listening. We'll be back next week for more Fantasy Football Weekly. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio for more podcasts from my heart Radio. Is it the I heart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows,