The Peacock Off!

Good to see it's great death preseason action in full force again, Because as much as people crap on preseason play, you get things like Romandre Stevenson opening opening eyes and Mac Jones looking competent, and you know, you get you get storylines that I love following and fantasy players care about. And in that vein, we're gonna touch on the biggest storyline over the last week for each of the thirty two teams. We're gonna later in the show hit on

all the traits of a sleeper running back. I challenge Matt Harrison to look through years of data and identify what are the traits that helped sleeper running backs hit and challenge accepted. Challenge accepted. The Peacock Off. We will each have two bold predictions from our hosts. That will be a total of six bold predictions, and when they come right, we will theretis took a minute. The peacock was sleeping. I had to wake up the peak and

you couldn't find your peacock. I'm in preseason for myself. Over here will we will unleash our sleepers of the week as well and answer three tough questions. Let's go to the training camps around the league, beginning with Matt the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are an Indie for joint practices this week. And I'm not even trying to make anyone on this show happy, but about a third of the stories from Panthers camp are talking about the connection

between a certain quarterback and a certain tight end. Oh boy, Sam Darnald and Dan Arnold. The Darnold Arnold connection. Yeah, it looks like it's a thing, and we're seeing Dan Arnold is starting to get taken in fantasy drafts. But yeah, let's remember you've been wrong for two years. Okay, let's you know, let's save the two years. So yeah, yes, we're not. No, it was two years ago. I was telling you on this very show to d draft the guy named Darren Waller as the sleep summer Sleeper segment.

So you've only been wrong for one calendar year on Dan Arnold. Is that what you're saying. I don't know what I was really necessarily wrong on. Yeah, pretty much did find the tape Oakland and not Oakland the Las Vegas Raiders. Brian speaking of Darren Waller, what is up with Darren Waller? He hasn't practiced in like ten days. Kind of scary, but he's been around. I've seen him working on the sidelines and sweatpants. He's not it doesn't have a noticeable limp or anything like that. So we're

gonna be optimistic with Darren Waller, but not practicing. Hopefully they're just being extra cautious with him. Obviously the offense revolves around Waller. Last year he led all tight ends and yards after the catch with five. How impressive is that? He's probably, I bet among all tight ends for total yards. He was like guards after It's like fourth or something. Well, Davante Adams led all wide receivers and yards after the catch with five. D eighty four. That's ten less yards

and Darren Wallers yards after the catch. Yeah, it's pretty good, so pretty hopefully Waller is okay. He should be uh for the Packers. Aaron Jones is nursing hamstring injury. Don't be surprised if you don't see him at all in the preseason. In the eyes of many, the star of Packers camp is tight end Robert Tounyon. He's looked more explosive, He's getting opened down field more Aaron Rodgers. Obviously he's back. Tonyon is being underdrafted. In my personal opinion, Let's go

to the Washington football team. Matt Um, You're not gonna like this one chart, but Stu Beard Ryan Fitzpatrick was asked about, you know, playing quarterback in Washington and he said, I'm playing on borrowed time. And Washington has also been saying that Taylor Heineke is an actual threat to steal this job from Ryan Fitzpatrick. I thought in the preseason game that on on Thursday night that Fitzpatrick looked pretty

dawn good. How did he look capable? Not great? Would look capable, And that's better, frankly better quarterbacking than Washington in a while, Brian, let's go to the Buffalo Bills. Bad news out of Buffalo. Our boy Zack Moss currently dealing with a hamstring strain. UH last season basically marred by an ankle injury. This is not a good start to his what's supposed to be a bounce back campaign for Moss. I'm certainly invested in that, and right now

I'm a little worried. Devin Singletary obviously gets a bump of moss Mrs time, and Matt Barrita has looked pretty good in camp for the Bills, so he becomes pretty relevant if Moss. It seems like a sad trombone is worth this for you know, Mitchell true Bisky's in Buffalo too, and Zack Moss is getting hurt. You made that work feeling bad. I don't need an excuse to use the

trombone sound. But the Texans they release their depth chart and it looks like they basically just drew names randomly across their entire depth chart because they're trying to be so tricky with how they treat the media. Nobody releasing, Oh well, we don't buy by shuffling our depth chart. We're gonna get We're gonna get extra wins this year by faking everybody out with an untrue depth chart. They've got Philip Lindsay and mark Ingram listed as their co

starting running backs. Tyrod Taylor was the top quarterback with the Shawn Watson fourth, and Chris Conley is the starting wide receiver. Okay, let's go to the Lions. Matt. There's not a lot to report here, but Dan Campbell drinks a ton of caffeine and he thinks of VENTI is forty ounces, so it is venti venti. That's the That's the update, is that that's a lot of caffe Yeah, he likes caffee. I still refuse to say venti and whatever the other snow sizes. They always give you the

stink I, but I don't care. Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. Ryan. There's usually something bad happening in Cleveland, like Baker Mayfield beef in with Colin Coward or someone's getting hurt for the year. But all is well right now in Cleveland, and I hope I'm not drinking them and uh Odell Beckham looking very spry and camping right now, going in the late twenties, at wide receiver. I like that cost for someone with the ceiling that's still very

high when healthy. It's not like Odell Beckham's old at this stage. He just hasn't been able to perform for quite a while. Give Kevin Stefanski some credit because when he walked in there, you know, basically one year ago, there were still tons of Cleveland turmoil. Kevin Stefanski has solidified, steadied the entire organization, and Andrew Berry as well, a lot of positive steam coming out of Cleveland. The Colts,

obviously at Carson Wentz. Quentin Nelson had the foot surgery we talked about last last show, and everybody knows about that. But new this week ESPN and Chris Mortenson reporting that they're trending too closer to a week one availability. You know, it's still very early in the timetable for these guys. You know, they just got the surgery a week ago. So I don't think anybody really knows, but um, perhaps there's some good news there, and I think we're gonna

see Jonathan Taylor's ADP rise back up again. Let's go to the Seattle Seahawks. Matt left tackle Dwayne Brown is still holding in as in, he's attending practices but not doing anything until he gets a new contract. That's how you avoid the fifty a day fine and not showing up. By the way, show up, but I'm not doing anything. Uh. The Seahawks are trying to install a new offense under new coordinator Shane Waldron, so it's worth keeping an eye on Dwyane Brown holding in. Let's go to the Jets.

Elijah More, rookie wide receiver. Everyone's very high on high on him. Um has a quad issue, currently getting an m R I. That's not good. Denzel Mims has looked really bad. Apparently he lost twenty pounds due to eating bad salmon. Uh during the off season. So James and crowd are all of a sudden, you should be creeping up how much salmon, I don't know, but just enough. He's a lot of bad salmon. By the way, bad salmon.

To me, it's just redundant pretty much. Did he did have one bad experience with salmon and lost from it or just continuously ate the bad salmon for weeks and weeks? Well, Braxton Barrios is already a thing and rulling preseason week two.

That's not good. Good news for the Jets. Kansas City's rebuild offensive line took a bit of a blow with Lauren DuVernay tard If breaking his hand he was He's expected to miss at least a few regular season games, and the team's guard behind him, Kyle Long, is on the pup list, so we don't know about his availability. So the offensive line for Kansas City with a little bit of turmoil right now. Let's head to Philadelphia. Mattu DeVonta Smith is dealing with an mcl S brain He's

expected to be sidelined for the rest of August. Also, left tackle Andre Dillard suffered a nice brain on Tuesday. So just like every year in Philly, the injury bug is back there. I don't know how they keep doing this. Denver Broncos Bryant Denver here in Minnesota right now to play this weekend. UH. Mike Boone former Viking Mike Boone pulled his quad for the Broncos, but he's number three behind UH Melvin Gordon, Javante Adams. Uh. Not a lot

of a big effect for Boone being hurt. Courtland Sutton looks great. Jerry Judy is going to be a nice guy. Alongside Sutton. Everyone likes no a fan. It's all about who's who's going to be the quarterback in Denver, and we still do not know. That's probably the most battle rooting for Drew Lock to look better and win that job because he can't produce fantasy points. He seems like he is now the forgotten man. Among the Rams wide

outs is DeShawn Jackson. He's impressed thoroughly throughout camp and looks fast, he looks healthy. There's a good chance that he will be the starting receiver opposite Robert Woods on opening day. And basically, going undrafted, you can you can get the You can get a starting wide receiver for the Rams at virtually no cost right now, Deshan Jackson until he gets injured in week one and then you punt him. Then you punt him and you go pick

somebody else up. You put Sammy Watkins into Shawn Jackson in your week one and then let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott has an m r I scheduled for Monday. But don't worry about it, says the Dallas Cowboys. Pr Nothing to see here, h They're saying it doesn't indicate a setback, but things aren't progressing quite as quickly as the Cowboys want it, and it sounds like they may hold him out of the entirety of the preseason. That means you get a lot of Garrett Gilbert and

Ben d Nucci this August. Yeah, I I drafted last night, I drafted Ceedee Lamb. And because it's a guillotine format, I'm really worried about these early season games. Sure I get knocked out for the year, and like, oh man, I really hope, I really really hope Dak Prescott's back. Let's go to the Miami Dolphins. Brian rookie wide receiver Jalen Waddle has looked phenomenal, especially in joint practices against the Bears, just burning everybody. He's going after Will Fuller

right now is wide receiver forty eight Waddle. That is but a little bit before Davante Parker. Waddle is already getting drafted head of Parker, but Waddle looks like he might be the wide receiver you want on this team, especially based on adp right. Will Fuller still not a factor at this stage. Uh. Last week I talked about the Vikings offensive line woes, and I was hoping as a Viking fan that I'd be able to talk about

it getting better this week, but no, Dice. Uh. First round draft pick Christian Darrisaw underwent a second core surgery and he's unlikely to return to practice until close to September. So far, he has yet to have a full practice with the team this year. O t a s mini camp. Now training camp sounds crazing games. Yeah so again, take a little caution in this Vikings offensive line. Matt, Let's go to the Giants. Se Kwan Barkley activated from the

pup and he started practicing on Monday. But Kenny Golladay went the opposite way. He's dealing with a hamstring injury and it looks like he won't see any action until the end of the preseason. Brian, The Patriots played Thursday night in a game that had a number of positive storylines.

Yeah so. Back on August four, when asked what rookie running back Ramandre Stevenson needed to improve upon, Patriots running back coach Ivan Feeders said everything, and then Ramandre Stevenson reels off a sixty plus yard touchdown on touchdown um at. Stevenson also totaled nine hundred yards across his last six college games. And by the way, Patriots running backs coach Ivan Feeders played wide receiver in college and he's been

the running back coach since two thousand and one. It's a long time something about Tom Brady like he's kept his like the running backs with the Patriots, that they ever developed the running back there ever, No, so I don't They don't know what they're talking about there. There's a big dip on Remondress of experience stuff I don't know. Let's also remember Damian Harris got all the first team looks and I thought he looked pretty good. Um, they

pulled him out on third downs. They put in you know, James James White and others. Um, but Damian Harris got all the first team looks. And let's not forget about that part. But Remander Stevenson looked good and either like late second quarter or maybe it was early third quarter. Goal line work for Remandre Stevenson as well, and he has built for it. Baby, do not let him and your standard redraft leagues. He should not go one drafted

this year. Didn't mention mac Jones. I thought mac Jones looked pretty good and back up and it was Yeah, I was back up for the Saints. Marquez Callaway is your team's number one wide out. Michael Thomas is out with an ankle injury, tray Kwon Smith has an undisclosed injury, and Deonta Harris is facing possible suspension for his July d U I. Uh, Callaway going off the board in the nine round. You could have a team's number one wide receiver in the nineteenth round. Sounds like Alvin kamaras

the top wide receiver there. Atlanta Falcons Matt. Uh, they're not feeling all that great about their running backs, so they just signed Uh Deonta Foreman. Yeah, he's back again. Uh, that depth chart is very strange and Foreman might actually have a shot to get some snaps this year. Uh, let's go to the Titans. Derrick Henry is getting very limited reps in practice and basically throughout throughout camp, but

they're just being uber cautious with him. He doesn't really need practice on in running people over like he's done year in year out. But get to know Darrienton Evans even must handcuff if you have Henry on roster, but a guy I'm targeting even if I don't have Henry on roster, because if something happens to Henry, that's a lotto ticket right there. That's gonna vault your team near the top. We've seen two preseason games from the Steelers already.

Many teams have played zero. Um, you know, so uh, this is uh, this is a note. Uh. Najie Harris has looked pretty good so far. The box scores don't necessarily showed. He had two longer runs. He got called back on penalty on Thursday night. Um, But to this point, Najie Harris has looked requisite of the first round running back that they expect him to be, and so far

green lights. Let's go to the Cardinals. Speaking of running backs, the Cardinals don't have a first round running back that they're talking about because they keep saying Chase Edmonds and James Conner are splitting the backfield. Everything that's coming out of camp, quotes from the coaches, quotes from the players, it's going to be a completely split backfield all year. James Connor is not good unless James Connor gets hurt,

which he usually does. Her right now, Yeah, so you know if that he doesn't bounce back, let's go to the Bengals, uh fifth overall pick in the first wide receiver taken on Jamark. Chase have separation issues apparently can't his mom. But this has been an issue in college, I suppose. But he was the number one drafted wide receiver and he's the first wide receiver getting taken and Redraft Best Ball Leagues over Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

I got that completely the other way I got I got Chase last, especially based on how expensive he is compared to the other two. So but Chase not great reports coming out of camp so far for him, which you don't want to hear. One of the forty Niners Beat reporters has logged every single training camp pass for Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, and through midweek, Garoppolo had a sixty two percent completion rate, which is okay, alright,

six touchdowns, six interceptions. That's not god ideal. Trey Lance seventy percent completion rate seems better. Ten touchdown passes, two rushing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Just saying just saying, yeah, it's coming, all right, let's go to Chicago Bears. I want to talk about a rookie quarterback to um Justin Fields has been absolutely tearing it up in camp. The Bears had some joint practices with the Dolphins this week.

In a six snap span, which is a tongue twister, Fields through for three touchdown passes against the Dolphins defense and ran for one in six snaps. It's impressive. Yeah, it's a nice efficiency. It's a good efficiency. He will get a long look, they said, more than two quarters on Saturday night versus Miami. Brian the Jaguars DJ Shark had surgery recently on a broken finger, but he should

be ready for Week one. But something to keep your eye on as you might want to be drafting Lavisha Chanlt and Marvin Jones a little sooner than you were before this news broke recently. My final team is the Baltimore Ravens. Ri Shod Bateman underwent groin surgery. His preseason is over. Expected timetable is September, and it's unclear if you will walk into a starting job when he comes back,

considering you have missed almost all of training camp. Will Marky's Brown and Miles boy Can both have hamstring injuries, so it's all but certain that Sammy Watkins will be the starting in the starting lineup. Hopefully by then it will be Markus Brown and Sammy Watkins is your number

one and number two receivers there um. Also, I will note because Gus Edwards was my sleeper player last week when they team released their unofficial first depth chart co number one running backs were Gus Edwards and j K doct I want to talk a little bit more about j K Dobbins maybe next segment. Okay, good, let's go to the our Our final team is the Los Angeles Chargers. Mike Williams has a hip flex er. Uh so missing some practice and here we go again. People are so

are so excited for Mike Williams this year. Tyron Johns are they remember that name? At wide receiver for the Chargers in dime is the especially but he could become viable in redraft this year. He has some one of my favorite like wait last him Byron Pringle. I got a couple others that are my deep deep receiver depth chart plays, sleeper plays. All right, when we come back the Peacock Off, it's two bold predictions from each of our hosts and we'll find out who gets to Peacock

after the season was over, The Pea cock Off. When we return to Fantasy Football Weekly, Welcome back Kasy Football Weekly Culture m Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson with you do you haven't checked out the freshest new way to play fantasy football. It's called the Guillotine League. You can get more information at Guillotine leagues dot com on this new exciting format. This segment is called the Pea cock Off.

Two bold predictions from each host as they attempt to be right with ideas that are so crazy they might just come true. We begin with Brian Johnson, what is your first pea cock Off? I am gonna be pea cocking off when Kyle Pitts scores more touchdowns than teammate Calvin Ridley this season. Now, I won't say how many touchdowns that is, but we're banking on a fair amount of touchdowns for Calvin Ridley and I think Kyle pits

will have more. Ridley had nine in box. Ridley had nine touchdowns last year, very good total, seven from inside the twenty five of those seven were from inside the yard line on eleven targets. Calvin Ridley had five touchdowns inside the ten. Yeah, pretty good numbers, especially for receiver. Now we gotta throw Julio under the bus. Julio Jones really quick, not in town anymore. Of course, one target from inside the ten yard line last year mind bending,

So that usage so dumb. So outside of Ridley and Julio, though, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gauge, Brandon Powell and la Kwan Treadwell combined to score eleven touchdowns from inside the ten yard line. Who on twenty two targets? Those are great numbers. And you think that slot fest of receivers is going to combine for those looks now that Kyle Pitts is in town, absolutely not. Well they did last year, well, Kyle Pitts was not in town. Now Kyle Pitts is in town.

Who is six six to forty and absolute a plus of a unicorn, who is not going to play standard tight end. By the way, that's what Hayden Hurts is gonna do. Pitts doesn't have to do all the things Hayden Hurts is gonna do. Pitts is gonna be catching passes all over the place and scoring more touchdowns than Calvin Ridley this year. Matt, what is your first of two pee cock offs. I'm gonna go with j. K. Dobbins, finishing as a top three running back Top three, top three.

He was only on the field for forty five percent of the Ravens offensive plays last season, yet he was fourth in the NFL in rushing plays of over twenty yards, with eight eight of those long runs on only one hundred and thirty four rushing attempts. So six percent of his rushing attempts went for twenty or more yards and twenty of his rushing attempts went for ten yards or more. That's one in every six point five rushing attempts went

for ten or more yards. Now, Derrick Henry lad the league with forty eight runs of ten or more yards on two carries. His uh, his percentage was not as good as J. K. Dobbins. In the Ravens last nine games, including playoffs, Dobbins had nine touchdowns. Boy, that's nine times, and the average six point four yards per carry, plus mark Ingram's gone vacating seventy two carries. I'd venture to guess that most of those go the way of Dobbins, getting him to the two hundred carry mark. And I

think that that's a conservative mark. Extrapolate his numbers from last year, running just two hundred times, that's twelve yards and fourteen touchdowns. That yardage total would have been third amongst running backs, and that touchdown total would have been fourth amongst running backs. Plus Ravens running back coach Craig Verse. Stig said that he's caught absolutely every ball in practice so far in camp, and the Ravens keep spouting off about how they want Lamar to run less and throw more.

Two means that to me, that means Lamar and his low eight point six a dot we'll be giving JK even more touches. So I'm gonna forecast two or thirty rushing attempts and fifty catches. If he does that, he easily slides in as the top three running back. You and I are set up for a and I like j K Dobbins just fine. Jo and I are set up for a season long battle because I'm heavily and diametricallysed Gus Edwards and You're heavily in favor. And I'll be making later guys. I love Justice Hill. This Ryan

Fitzpatrick will finish as a QB one. I mean he'll be one of the top twelve quarterbacks. His a DP is currently double that at quarterback twenty two, round fourteen. Here's my case. Unlike any recent Washington quarterback, Fitzgerald Fitzpatrick can press the ball upfield. He finished eleventh in completed air yards last year and eighth in yards per attempt despite having the second shortest time to throw at just

two point four seconds. Last season playing behind that wolful Miami offensive line, he ranked number one in aggressive US which I loved, which is next gen stats is passer rating. Yeah, willingness to throw into tight coverages. It is an aggressive beard, isn't it. Fitzpatrick led the league in on target percentage on passes of greater than twenty yards down field. I love his ability to press down field, and, by the way, not as wildly erratic as as many fantasy owners think.

In his seven starts last year, he had six quality fantasy starts his UH and his eighty six completion rate is one percent less than Aaron Rodgers M v P season. He's not as wildly erratic as some people tend to think. Fitzpatrick is. As a reminder, last year, playing for a I think will ultimately be a much worse Miami offense. Fitzpatrick was on track for fort hundred yards, twenty eight touchdowns, three thirty rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns, which would

have made him justin Herbert last year. Herbert's ADP is quarterback six. You can get Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback twenty two and he will finish as a QB one. You mean he would have been justin her beard. He's justin a hair beard, like an air beard beard. That kind of works. To be honest, Brian, what is your second peacock off? I have Austin Ekeler finishing as the the RB one in PPR, not a RB one, the overall number one running back in points per reception leagues this year.

I guess, Matt, you made a similar call last year. I tried this one last year and it was it was, it was top overall. Yeah, okay, Well, for all the reasons you said, we're just copying my work from last year. Yeah. Everything that made him uh two thousand plus combo yards all day long in the bag when he shows healthy averages is more than four and a half yards per carry a lock for at least five catches per game get nine catches, and things didn't work out for him

last year. He wasn't healthy and other things that weren't going for him last year. He wasn't going into justin air Bears first full year, which we are this year first full season. Anthony Lynn, arguably one of the worst coaches we've seen over the last decade, finally gone new head coach do oc for the Chargers. It was very well for Austin Nikela and lastly, and but definitely not least, he totally revamped offensive line, starting with left tackle Rashawn Slater,

who was taken overall by the Chargers. When this guy gets going and run blocking in the second level looks like the Juggernaut from X Men. Uh. They do get Brian Bulaga back. He was limited by injury last year, but he looks good. The Chargers signed another former Packer and Corey Lindsley, who was Pro Football Focuses top graded free agent center this past offseason. Surrendered only seven pressures ont pass blocking snaps, so great for the whole offense.

Huge upgraded center and both starting guards Matt Feiler and O Day. I'm gonna go with a bouche also free agents. So I will admit the line needs a little time to mesh probably, but it's a lot of moving parts. It was so much more, so much better, so much more talented. Love the Charges as an overall team. And if Austin Ekeler can stay healthy, we had that concern

with every player in the NFL. He could very well finish the season as RB one, and I'm going with the fact you will stay healthy and finish as RB one in PPR. Yeah, I was so on board Austin Ekeler last year and I am this year as well. He's he's might number nine ranked running back, but I

still think he does have running back one upside. He just has to get more carries, and that's something he's never had in his career is a lot of carries, and I think that's why he wouldn't be That was the plan for him last year though, when he got hurt. And I don't know, like we're gonna see a lot of running backs get limited by their their touches, including Derrick Henry, I think. But could be Matt your second pea cock off. You know what I like about Fantasy

Football Weekly. Sometimes we do each other's work like Brian, Like, Brian just told me all of the great things about the Chargers old line. And that's why I have just an air Bear that's right finishing as quarterback number two, number two. He's gonna throw ten touchdowns. I think so. Um Brian talked about the offensive line. That's fantastic. Joe Lombardi is the new offensive coordinator. He had one season as offensive coordinator. I mentioned this last week. His team

passed sixty six percent of the time. With Austin Ekeler as your lead running back, you're probably going to pass sixty six percent of the time. You're gonna keep that ball in the air. The Chargers led the NFL in total plays run last year at seventy per game. And if those trends hold true, air Bear will throw forty six passes a game. If he does that at seven point three yards per attempt, he's going to throw for three thirty six yards per game. If he throws touch

a lot, that's a lot. That's a lot. Only two quarterbacks have ever averaged that many yards per game two thousand thirteen Peyton Manning in two thousand eleven Drew Brees. If he throws a touchdown at equal percentage from last season. He's going to average two and a half touchdowns per game, and a few quarterbacks have averaged over that per per two and a half touchdowns per game, but it's usually

like one quarterback every other year. The only reason I don't have him finishing as quarterback number one is because Paul Charchion is about to tell you who's going to finish at quarterback number one, Patrick Mahomes in our final, our sixth and final peacock Off. Patrick Mahomes will set the single season passing yardage and touchdown record this year.

Is because it's the first season with seventeen games. He does get a six games, and I am factoring that in do you think he gets us expert in sixteen games though? Because he won't play, so you're you're probably right about that, because I think they're sitting on like win season, so there is a chance I'll have to

do it in sixteen games, and he may. He's already he's already had a top ten yardage season once already, and he's already got the number two passing touchdown mark of all time when he had a fifty touchdown season. I believe that was eighteen, so you know he's already

performed at a level similar to that. UM. I also like the fact that Patrick Mahomes has got uh still has Tyree Hill, He's got the rebuilt offensive line that needless, I don't have to even go into a lengthy discussion at this point on on how good Patrick Mahomes is. Safe to say that Patrick Mahomes is very good and has a lot of upside that could all come together in a season with we're in which he gets very

good protection. Clyde Edwards Laire could be sitting on some extra receptions and we'll talk about that a little bit later in this show when we come back. The Traits of a Sleeper running Back Matt Harrison is unearthed, a mechanism by which you can identify sleeper running backs. Who are the players you can take in the mid rounds that will perform like fantasy starters. We'll tell you when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy

Football Weekly. Paul Chargie, Matt Harrison, and Brian Johnson with you. You can get all my player rankings available for Guillotine Leagues dot Com. Matt Yeah challenge you to come up with the common traits among sleeper running backs. In any given year, half of the RB ones the top twelve running backs will come from the middle rounds or later of fantasy drafts. Uh. The washout rates very high on the end running backs due to injuries and a lot

of other things. Um, And, so what are the common traits that you can look for in the middle rounds to help find running backs that can vault up to every week starter status. Yeah, so I set this up where I want a running back who I can take in round six or later that gives me round two upside. That's that's significant jump right there. Um. A DP has about fourteen or fifteen running backs going in the first two rounds, so they need to finish in the top

fifteen basically. UM. I've compiled data from the last six seasons back to looked at the original a DP and final stats the running backs, and I found nineteen instances where running back in the last six years that qualified as drafted outside of round six and finished in the top fifteen. So let's unearth some of the trends that these nineteen players have in common. Um. And each of these trends that I've outlined here we've seen them happen at least five times on these three trends. Okay, so

it's happened at least five years. You've got a pool of nineteen running backs made the big jump from round six or lower all the way up to round two. Corral you, and five of them have cover. Each of these got trend number one a high passing percentage team with a well below average passing game. Okay, so that means a lot roll a lot, and they got junkie quarterbacks and wide receivers. Um, We've i found five guys who fit this mold. A team with a high passing

percentage seems counterintuitive here, as that conversely means less rushing attempts. Right. However, these teams usually have a few similarities. Three of the five running backs were playing under coaches in their first year with the team, so they came into a situation where the offense is probably bad. Uh, They're not playoff teams, with the exception of one of those teams was the seven and nine Washington football team last year that won the NFC East, so still a below average team that

won a division. Three of those five teams had bottom five defenses in points allowed and bad quarterbacks playing catchup usually equals low depth of target because the defenses are playing more prevent In fact, of the A dots of these quarterbacks were under eight yards. So teams that probably fit the mold of a bad defense, a below average passing unit, and a quarterback with a low depth of target. Well, we're going to start with Detroit and Jared Goff, who

have been picking on for two or three years. His six point one average depth of target. That's not good. Dan Campbell, rookie head coach, that that fills in right there. Now you think, well, DeAndre Swift, I can't get him that late. But Jamal Williams is going off in the tenth round, and the Lions are still saying it's a two man split backfield. They keep saying it over and over and over again. So Jamal Williams in the tenth round, he's juicy the Jets. The defense is still always away.

Rookie quarterback Zack Wilson, who had a ten point nine a dot in college that goes down in your first lay in the NFL. And Robert sala a rookie head coach Michael Carter going off in the eighth round, and I think Michael Carter, out of these guys, has the best chance of making. Only Tevin Coleman and la Michael

p Ryan are challenging for touches. So Carter I like a lot uh Jacksonville bad defense, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence only on nine point zero a dot in college, and Urban Meyer as a rookie coach, Travis E. T n or eight gen He's going around five. But James Robinson is still there in round nine right now, Travis, I'm

pretty down in Robinson, but that's good value. It's good value on both of these guys, and I wouldn't mind having either of these guys on my team, even though I'm cheating a little bit with eton trend Number two, A playoff team with a good defense and a pass catching running back emerges out of nowhere, all right, So I gotta be a playoff bound team up that has a very good, very good defense, got it, and a pass catching running back. Okay, and we found five players

that fit this mold. Each of the team's made the playoffs. Um two of them were headed up by rookies that were seemingly blocked by a good established player. Those were Alvin Kamara who was blocked by Mark Ingram and David Johnson back in the day, who was blocked by Chris tap dancing Nancy Johnson. I just wanted to bring him. Thank you for you to tap dancing, Nancy. It's been a while. Um, three of those players had By the way, how come we didn't have a tap dancing sounder at

any point? You know, we could have had the click click at easy Yeah, right, yeah, right there we go. Um, Tampa Bay super Bowl Champs. Fantastic defense. If we're going to have a pass catcher emergent of nowhere, though, it can't be four Net or Roe Joe, who are near misss by being selected earlier than our criteria. It would have to be the one player off the board, and that's Geo Bernard who they're giving rave reviews to encamp. Tom Brady recruited him specifically kind of like Geo Bernard

is a late round sleeper. Yeah, there's some temptation to equate him to Lashawn McCoy, who was a pass catching running back who was on roster last year and they just didn't use him. But Bernard's what only like five years into his career, not fifteen years into his career like McCoy was exactly. Um, the l A Rams should contend in the NFC with a great defense, and now we're all looking at cam Akers being out, which is

actually a plus for sleeper running backs. Right. Darryl Henderson's ability to stay healthy and on the field is very much being called into question by his head coach. So Xavier Jones is you're out of nowhere guy. He's a clear passing option from what they say in camp notes, he's catching everything. So Xavier Jones is a guy you can get real late last round year draft. Nobody's drafting

him right now. Pick him up. Uh and then Washington somehow upgraded their defense, which was already very good from last year and should be among the elite units in the league. I think they should be favored to win the NFC East as well. J D. Mckissic is the guy that you want, and it's not mc suckett anymore. He's going off in the eleventh round. Plus he already proved that he can do this role with eight catches last year. It's not out of nowhere. But he's being

drafted in the eleventh round. And he finished his RB seventeen last year, so it's kind of like, hey, just a reminder, by the way, he's good. He's put on like ten or fifteen pounds too, So if something were to happen to Gibson, he could assume that three. Yeah, absolutely's not gonna steal it from Gibson. But and trend number three, it's it's not that uh, it's not that interesting. It's an injury or a departure plus a coaching staff with a Bell cow philosophy. It's basically the best handcuffs

you can get in weird situations. And here are the guys who might be in line for a full bell Cow roll if the guy in front of them on the depth chart doesn't make it to a game, whether it's injury, illness, whatever. Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott has averaged three touches over the last five seasons. That's a lot Cuba Hubbard. This coaching staff let Mike Davis have two four touches last year with CMC out. If he goes

down again, it's Cuba Hubbard's time. Uh. Brian mentioned Darrenton Evans, Derrick Henry had three touches and four hundred last year. DJ Dallas. Chris Carson was injured last year but still had over two sixty five touches in each of the prior to seasons, and Seattle has been one that they use one running back at a time. And finally, Alexander Madison. Dalvin has had over three d touches in two straight years and has missed at least two games and all

four of his pro seasons. Alexander Madison would be in line for a ton of work if Dalvin goes down with a big injury. Yeah. That's the you know, the bell cow philosophy very very important, and you know, I'm tempted to lump in a little cream hunting do that. But the problems we saw last year, Yeah, yeah, so that was a run first mentality offense, very much so with Kevin Stefanski, who suckled at the teet of Mike Zimmer and loves to do. Yeah, well, because apparently it worked.

Look at look at where Kevin Stefanski got the browns. I mean, you do suckle at the teeth of a bell cow, right, Yeah, Well that's a great point. That's a great perfect move. Yeah. I like that way to hold on I think we have a cow on here, don't we all of our we got the cow. There's got the cow bell, so you know that works. We don't have actual moving at any point. Well, someone mailed you an actual cow bell. I recall, Yes, we have a listener who sent me a literally functioning cow bell.

It's in my house. It's super cool. You engraved it with fantasy in my bedroom and everything. It's on my cow that right, Thank you for the traits of a of a sleeper running back, Matt, let me mention this for those of you that are in dynasty leagues, are interested in dynasty leagues. The Empire League is a fantastic variation on dynasty leagues. And while we've just got a moment here between now and the end of this segment,

let me just explain how that works. An Empire league, it's a dynasty league where you keep all of your players year to year, but unlike most it's got a true wind condition on the end of it. The dynasty league puts in for every dollar it goes into the pot, only half of it goes out at the end of each year. So if your league put puts in a hypothetical thousand dollars your winners. That you get five and the other five hundred rolls forward year to year, waiting

for a team to win back to back championships. When that happens, the winner gets that year's pay out. They get the rolling pot and here's the best part. The league ends. That's over. One of the things that bugs me about fantasy football is there is no true champion. You only have the latest winner. The Empire League gives you a true champion. This is the guy who won the whole thing, and we disbanded the league and we're in.

You are the champion. Brian Johnson is our current champion, and if he wins, he's heading out with a cool nine grand that's been rolling up over this, I can retire from the show. Finally. That that fun, and so it will be fun when Brian retires. For Brian, it really has a very special experience knowing what you've got on the line this year and for the other eleven of us. We're gunning for Brian. You know, we want him to lose and we're gonna try to try to

make him lose. It's uh. It's bringing on the Empire League a new variation that you can try in your dynasty league. When we come back three tough questions, I'll pepper my co host, with three tough questions. You can play along see if you can go three and oh. On Fantasy Football Weekly, our number two of Fantasy Football Weekly, Matt Harrison Brian Johnson with you. Fantasy draft season rapidly approaching. We're here to get you ready. This is a segment

we call three toughes utions. Why because we asked three tough questions and you guys try to answer correctly. I've got all the correct answers. You will try to match my answers. Feel free to play a long tough question Number one? What is the one tight end handcuff worth drafting? Matt? This one was pretty tough. It might have caused the medulla injury for me, so I'm no longer able to regulate my body activities including heart rhythm, breathing, blood flow, sneezing, vomiting, coughing,

swallowing all that stuff. Um to me. A handcuff indicates that you have an elite, top tier player and you need to back them up because you think when their backup would take over, they would get most are all of that elite, top tier work. That narrows it down to three tight ends, Kelsey, Waller, and Kittles backups. Kelsey's backup is Noah Gray, fifth round rookie out of Duke, but Kelsey hasn't missed a game that wasn't a week

seventeen in his career, so it's probably not him. What we saw from Ross Dwelly last year when Kittle went down was nothing special unless you're interested in two catches in twenty yards per game. And then Darren Waller's backup as a chap named Foster Moreau a chap you said, yep, I think that's the one that you could target. First, Waller has a mystery injury right now, has in practiced since augustwo but he's been working with the team trainers

in Vegas. Uh in his sweatpants, as Brian said, uh. Second, the amount of offense that runs through Waller is substantial. Percent of Derek cars throws went to Waller last season, and Henry Ruggs, John Brown, Bryan Edwards they're not a top trio of wide receivers in the league. And finally, Moreau actually might be good. He scored five times in his rookie year and was pretty much absent in year two due to injury, so he's been off of everybody's radar.

The Raiders say a lot of nice things about him, and Gruden called him a perfect fit for the offense. So I went into this thinking nobody, but I came out of it saying, if I'm drafting Darren Waller in the second round, drafting Foster Moreau in the last round, Brian, who is or what is the one tight end handcuff worth drafting? I had the same answer, and I don't have much to add other than a clever nickname that I used. I think is clever, The Island of Foster Moreau.

You're on island if you're drafting and I tell you that the Island of Dr Moreau. Alright, well, nonetheless, but as Matt basically said, the tight end totals for Vegas were tops in the league last year. That was basically all Waller. But if you've forgotten, Jason Witten played football for the Raiders last year, as did Foster Moreau. Those two combined for twenty catches, four touchdowns on just twenty

three targets. Um. So if you just give Moreau eighty targets if something happens to Waller based on that combined production, because Witten's I would assume gone. Now I thank god, Um, just eighty targets. Extrapolate that combined production looking at a he catches and sixteen touchdowns. But I'm not saying he's gonna score sixteen touchdowns. But if you get sure, I'm pretty sure you just called an eighteen touchdown season for

Foster Morrow. Well, uh yeah, based on that combined well, because I'm not gonna put that out in the universe that Darren Waller is gonna miss time, because Darren Waller is not gonna miss time. And I'm kind of upset that you're making us answer to questions as if he's gonna his time, because this is clearly the correct answer. By the way, Um, this is the correct answer. It's Foster Moreau. Let me tell you a little bit more

about him. Um, he's only twenty four years old. It's his third year in Matt mentioned that he missed last season because of an a c L injury, and the team pivoted to Jason Witten as a The A c L injury was actually in December the year before that. But last year he just wasn't right and he was used very sparingly, and they had Jason Witten. With Jason Witten leaving it frees up ninety four snaps for Moreau. Nine thirty four snaps. That is a ton and a couple of days ago, John Gruden, you had a John

Gruden quote, another one about Foster Moreau. He said, I'm not going to be Foster's agent, but I wish I was. I love him. He's a football junkie. He's one of the greatest kids I've ever coached. He and Waller give us a duo that is as good as any I've ever had. That's about Foster Moreau. Considering the horrific state of the Raiders receivers, Moreau could emerge as a viable bye week filling even if nothing happens to Darren Waller.

You could put a blow up doll next to Darren Waller and say, this is the best duo of tight ends I've ever had because you got Darren Waller on one side. Anyway, I think your love of Darren fully established at this point. Um I thought you might go Dan Campbell and um is Thomas still there? I don't even know who. I don't even Dan Arnold's not Thomas when we're doing that next year, bro tough question number two, which NFL offense well? Did see the biggest increase in

points scored from last year to this year? Brian? So I immediately went and looked at the bottom of the barrel teams from last year, and those are the Jets, the Giants, the Jaguars of the Bengals. You can make cases for all those teams making big leaps. The Jets and Jaguars have new quarterbacks, the Giants get se Kwan Barkley, backs Incinnati didn't have Joe Burrow for the second half of the year. But you know, just because they were the lowest scoring team, that doesn't make it easier to

have a bigger jump in points. So I still kind of went. I went and looked in the middle of the pack, and I looked at the Rams, who averaged twenty three point six points every game last year after averaging more than twenty nine um. So I think they get back to that level where, of course Jared Goff was the quarterback for the Rams, also the quarterback for the Rams last year when they average twenty three point six points per game, the Lions average more points than

the Rams. Last year, the Lions average more that the Rams defense. This is gonna be as good this year. I'm not gonna go there, but yes, with Matt Stafford quarterback, the Lions average more points than the Rams. Of course, Matt Stafford now the quarterback for the Rams, so I see a six point nine point increase for the Rams. So the average three point two points for games this year nine time which NFL offense will see the biggest increase in points scored from last year to this year.

I had a couple of thoughts. San Franz was my first thought, but I'm worried that Jimmy g will hang on to that job long enough that that will thwart the increase when Trey Lands gets in. UH. Washington was my second thought. They added Stu Beard and Curtis Samuel to the fold and uh they had the lowest points of the three options I was looking at. But the one that I came up with was the same as Brian's. The Rams the average only twenty three points per game.

With Jared goof Matthew Staffords a huge upgrade. And by the way, you can stack this team fairly easily in drafts. You can get Woods or Cup in the fifth, Henderson in the sixth, Stafford in the late seventh, Higbie in the eleventh, Xavier Jones just as an ad on at the end of your draft. If you think the Rams offense is really gonna come back, you can get big

value on all these guys by stacking the Rams. I like your answer, and it's a little outside of it's a little outside of the box because I thought you'd go right to the bottom of points scored last year and find teams are going to get better, like Washington or Cincinnati or the correct answer the Jets. Why Because the Jets scored fifteen points per game last year. Yeah, that's pretty bad. That's it. They were dead last by

a mile and points per game. So there's no Adam Gates this year, So that's like next that's like a free touchdown per game of extra offense there are right now, right now, you know, So that helps right there. Then you look at all the key offseason additions to this offense. They gained a first round offensive lineman, Elijah Vera Tucker. They gained a first round quarterback, Zach Wilson went second pick of the draft. They gained rookie wide receiver Elijah Moore,

who has been their star of camp. They gained new starting running back Michael Carter. They gained splashy free agent Corey Davis. You're being very generous with the star running back Michael Carter. Splash Did I say star start new starting If I miss smoke, I apologize new starting running back Michael Carter. Can't spell starting without star. And then Denzel Mims a lot of room to improve after his

injury plagued rookie year. You roll all those improved together, salmon plagued off season, saving plague off season, and and you've got seven eight nine ish points of differential coming for this Jets offense because it was so bad last year. You know, if Scott Fish keeps his sleepers as fish related, he can use tough question number three. Most people believe Clyde Edwards Hilaire will improve his fantasy output this year. How much better will he be a little, a modest amount,

or a lot better? Matt Um. From a rushing perspective, the Chiefs have actually been a middle of the pack running team for about five years. UH Their unit averages about yards and twelve rushing scores. Last year, they still hit that yardage mark as a group, but they only got eight rushing scores and touchdowns can be a little flukey, but last year's can be attributed to those inside the five numbers that charge likes to harp on. The Chiefs only ran the ball seventeen total times inside the five.

Ten of those were the running backs, and nine of those were Clyde. Uh So that's of the running back runs inside the five he did receive of the overall carries, which was the fifteenth highest average in the league. That's pretty good. The problem is is he any good by the right? Jury is still out on that. He only scored once from inside the five on nine runs. I will say some progression will happen there and he'll get more than one. So I think it will be a

modest increase on Clyde. All right, So you're taking the middle up the middle, all right, Briant. How much better will Clyde Edwards Hilaire be this year? A little, a modest amount or a lot better. I'm going with modest amount too, And I'll just add one key factor in that. Uh H's best game was Week one last year, which we all remember against the Houston Texans, which allowed forty six yards and one point three touchdowns per game to

running backs on the ground alone. Missed the second game against the Texans to so assuming he gets those two games, he's got to grow up a modest amount at least, but a borderline a lot. But I'm just gonna go with modest. I do think they try to keep him, you know, somewhat fresh. They're gonna work in Darryl Williams or Jerick McKinnon if they have to, But so he'll get the the majority of the touches, but not I still think we're think looking at so just a modest

amount of improvement for me, I've got. I originally had a little, and then the more I dug into it, I ended up at a modest amount. Uh. And let's be clear, you he almost can't be as bad as he was last year. Is the starting running back for the second highest scoring offense. It's hard to put up a few fantasy points as he did, healthy or not. One of the things that contributes to why I like him is I think there's a lot of catches coming

for him this year. Sammy Watkins for all of his issues, was still good for five targets a game, and that means he's going to I I don't believe Byring Pringle, Nicole Hardman are gonna suddenly turn into volume hogs. I think a lot of that's actually gonna go to Clyde Edwards Hilaire, who is a gifted receiver who didn't get used enough that way last year. And the figure he'll be a better runner in year two, he's just got to be. The running was just okay. We haven't seen

the best of Edwards Hilaire yet. We haven't. We we got to believe that there's a better year than what we saw in his rookie season based on what we saw in college. There's better days ahead of him as a runner. The problem, like you can't get him to a lot is the touchdowns. It's just he's got a score from distance. He's just so small and that's why you just you know, the fantasy output gets capped for him.

And so Clyde Edwards a laire right now, going late second round, early third round, that's kind of a lot to pay. I mean, you're baking in the you're baking in that modest improvement at that ADP. I gotta call myself out because someone is probably gonna do it on Twitter. I don't know why preseason. I'm in preseason for him some of the time. The Chiefs don't play the Texans twice a year. I don't know. I thought that. You know, we just let that slip. Yeah, I'm sure you caught

it over there. You would have loved you have called me out on that immediately. If you know we're being kind to you were such. The Guillotine League format works like this. Eighteen teams start the season every week, no head to head. Every week, the low scoring team gets cut and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire, and pandemonium ensues for the rest of us that are still alive as we harvest the bounty of that entire roster. Do you spend a bunch of your free agent bidding

money early? Do you save it for later? Tons of strategy in the Guillotine League. All you have to do is not be last. It's the Guillotine Leagues at Guillotine leagues dot Com. When we come back, players we love and never draft will tell you the players we love and never draft, and we come back Fantasy Football Weekly. It's Fantasy Football Weekly, Ball Chargie and Matt Harrison and

Brian Johnson with you. A lot of times. There are players out there who we legitimately love, but because of where they're getting drafted, we never end up with them for any of a variety of reasons. We're gonna give you each a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end from each of your three hosts here that we players we like, we want to have on our team and we never end up drafting. We begin with Matt who is your quarterback you love and never got. It's

a guy have on one of my dynasty leagues. It's good old Russell Wilson, who's going off the board in the fifth round or right now. I'm a little nervous about Seattle. They have a new offensive coordinator, Shane walden Uh. He's receiving the standard rave reviews from everybody at Seahawks camp, but you hear things like his offense is very large and complex, and then Pete Carroll's sing. Coach Walsh always said it's not how many things you can do, but

how many things you can do well. That's kind of conflicting to me about your new offensive coordinator a little, a little bit so last year's let Russ Cook movement lasted until Week nine against Buffalo, when the Hawks dropped a game to the Bills. And then it was Russ's seventh game in eight where he passed for two sixty more yards and multiple scores. And then after that game, Pete Carroll was like, oh, we lost, Let's go back

to a run heavy system. And then Russell Wilson topped the two six yard mark just once in his final eight games and through from multiple scores and only three of the final eight. A complex offense, a head coach who's known for throwing passing strategy out the window when things get tough, and a really tough second half schedule makes me not want to draft Russ again in the fifth round. I like just an Air Bear, who I was mentioning, and Aaron Rodgers. Those are the next two

guys in a DP. I like them a lot better than Russell Wilson. All Right, Brian, who is a quarterback you love but never end up drafting well, is a huge Bengals fan. I obviously love Joe Burrow, but I do not love him in fantasy. This year going off the board at quarterback fourteen, which sounds late, but it's really not this year when guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick are going outside the top twenty quarterbacks and you have him pegged as a QB one. So I'm waiting. I'm I'm

fading Burrow at QB fourteen. It's the obvious concerns coming back from major injury last year. Uh basically to be hung out to dry behind the same bad offensive line that got him essentially murdered last year. They added Jamaar Chase, which is nice, but they really should not have. They should have added another lineman. They're already pretty pretty set

at wide receiver. I could be very wrong here. Burrow has a very high ceiling if you can stay healthy, but just way too much risk to mitigate for me this year. Uh. So I'm just off of Joe Burrow going as a QB fourteen, way too early for me. There's a lot more stable options going later than him. I love this player and I want him on my team, but I can't take him in the fifth round. Bear, didn't you hear? He's gonna finish this quarterback quarterback too?

And and he might. I love the kid, and he's going to be He's he's I think the part of his game nobody ever talks about or doesn't talk about enough. He's pretty fleet of foot. He's going to have some rushing touchdowns that I don't think people are really accounting for in their mind. Um it's the problem is the fifth round. You know, for me and my draft strategy, as you guys know, I'm not locked into running backs early. I'm usually pivoting away from running backs. Fifth round is

when I'm taking running backs. And this is you know, right when I'm right, when I'm just basically starting my three round running back run is right here. So you're much more likely to get Patrick Mahomes early and then be filling up on running backs at that point you are correct, or even more commonly, I'm waiting for Ryan Fitzpatrick or you know, I can wait three, four or five more rounds and get guys like Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill with a tenth round a DP know, those are

really good quarterbacks and I can get much later. And if you're going to take a quarterback early, like seventh rounder earlier, it's got to be somebody that you think has a different making number one quarterback overall pedigree. That is correct, and I love I love Justin air Bear, but I'm not positive that's him. All right, Let's go to the running back position. Matt who is a running

back you love but never end up drafting. I mean, he's been a bell cow for a long time and a lot of people have won championships on the backs of Ezekiel elliott Um. I mentioned it before. He's had He's averaged three thirty touches over his last five seasons. But what have we started to see? The decline already from three rushing attemptsen to only two forty four last year,

a decline in rushing scores from twelve to six. The yards per carry averages went from four point seven and ten to four point five to a pedestrian four point oh last year. That is worth. That's worrisome. And the offensive line is not as good as it used to be. DA's injuries to his ankle and now shoulder have to make you stop and think you don't want Ben Denucci starting opposite Zeke in the backfield. There's a good seven to ten players I take before I take Zeke in

the middle of the first round. I concur Brian who's the running back that you love but will not draft love Nick Chubb in real life. I just can't go there in fantasy, even though he's going his RB ten like an early second mid second round pick. Pretty good value, but especially in a run heavy offense like Cleveland. But if it's not PPR and I that's what I play and most people play these days. I just can't get on board with Chubb. Just hate the receiving work that

he sees or lack lack thereof. I should say, only twelve games played last year, but sixteen catches in those twelve games for Nick Chubb's gross uh and his two seasons prior, Chub average less than two catches per game in thirty two games two full seasons, one point seven five catches per game. His two lone career receiving touchdowns came back in hasn't caught a touchdown with the last two seasons. So I just I need more receiving work out of a running back I'm taking in the first

two rounds, and I just can't go there with you. Guys, don't sound like you love the player at all. Okay, there's a lot of respect for these points, respect the player, not the draft position. Maybe we should rename it next year. Um, I like that we all took first round running backs for this. Christian McCaffrey is my love the player, hate the average draft position chart. You're just gonna say, because I'm not drafting first, because I finished so well in

all of my leagues last year, I'm never getting him. Hey, I do. I never randomly get the first pick. I never get the first pick. Um. But more importantly, if I do get that first pick, I believe firmly the best thing you can do is trade back to the middle of the first round in the first two rounds. So I'd rather have a middle round pick in rounds one and rounds two. And you'll find plenty of people who want to make that deal, So you have no

problem going back to six or seven. And then at that stage, I can you know, I get the sixth and eighth player instead of the first and the player, And for me, it's a trade off. I'd like that's a trade off I'm very willing to make. Um, why not just take Christian McCaffrey and be happy? Well, here, there are some there are some things you should think about a terrible offensive line in the conversation for the

worst in the league. UM Pro Football Focus projects the Carolina offensive line to be the third worst this year. A good runner can overcome a lot with their bad offensive line. But he's still mortal, and there could be some inconsistent play there. And then you know last year ankle injury, shoulder injury, thigh injury. There, No, that's a lot, and so there are reasons that you can pass on Christian McCaffrey. I never end up with him. Love the player,

hate the average draft position. Let's go to the wide receiver position. Give me a player you love and never end up with Matt It's a guy tried to acquire a lot last year because I really actually do respect him as a player on the field. It's Tyler Lockett who's going off in the fifth round. If you can guarantee me double digit targets for Tyler Lockett in every game, yeah, if, yeah, then I'll take him because he's sink or swim in

the last two years. In the six total games where he's had ten or more targets out of thirty two that is yeah, he's averaging eleven point six receptions and twenty nine yards and one point eight touchdowns per game. In the other twenty six games with nine or fewer targets, he's averaging four point three receptions, fifty one yards, and a quarter of a touchdown per game. That's gross. If he's not getting ten targets per game, which only does

an eighteen percent of his game. He's Marquez Valdez, Scantling or Christian Kirk or Keelan Cole. That's all he is. So he's not a guy I'm going to take in the fifth round. I'm gonna take guys later in the draft too. I can get that kind of flyer on Brian a player you respect but don't respect the average draft position at wide receiver Julio Jones now of the Tennessee Titans. Of course, going in the late teens among wide receivers, that is way way too early for me.

We mentioned uh well, first off, the Titans offense still revolves around Derrick Henry. He is the catalyst that makes it go. Yes, they will throw, but the top target, of course is a J. Brown is not Julio Jones. And we know the top target in the red zone is not Julio Jones. On any number has been mentioned. The one target that he did not catch, by the way with Atlanta last year, But going back four years, maybe this was a Matt Ryan thing that I don't well,

we could see. I'm gonna go with what I Saffer Bryan might help him out. I don't know about that. Uh So over the last four years, um, Julio is averaging less than four catches a year from inside the ten yard line. Last season, there were thirty different wide receivers who had more than four catches inside the ten yard line. Dirty and Julio. I mean that's enough right there, Guys.

I like way more than Julio Jones going later, Chris Godwin, d J. Moore, Odell Beckham going much later than Julio Jones. He's just going way too early in drafts for me not touching him. That doesn't sound like you like him, respect him. I respect him as a as a human. Well, how can you say you like Christian McCaffrey when you said you wouldna, I like he's a great player. Iverything for the same thing for Julio Jones. I don't see he's a bad player. I'm just not drafting him at

that ADP I don't see the difference here. The player I love and hate the average draft position is Chase Claypool. Currently, do you want Chase Claypool on your team? Well, I mean, but not at the age and not at the ADP. I'm not willing to each the Total Beast by taking crazy pills here like the exact same things. But I'm saying about I'll trade to Chase Claypool and my dynasty league. Let's go come on, Uh, total Beast, the big body right, the leaping ability, Uh, they go up and get it.

I like so much about Chase Claypool's game. See this is how I'm different than you, Brian. I'm explaining why he's a great player. I worry about things around to Chase Claypool that I have nothing to do with him. Ben Roethlisberger's rapid decline last season, does that continue or get worse this season? I worry about the Steelers offensive line limiting the overall production of this offense. And Chase Claypool's average draft positions round seven. I'm so busy drafting

running backs to round seven. So you know this, I've already got my great, great receivers. I don't need to roll the dice on a guy with the question marks that Chase Claypool has got. Alright, our final round of love the player hate the average draft position goes to the tight end position, and Matt I have Mark Andrews, who's going off in the fifth round. And it's really nothing against Mark Andrews's just more of a tear based thing.

Last year in PPR standard scoring leagues, Travis Kelsey average twenty point eight points per game, Waller average seventeen and a half, and George Kittle averaged fifteen point six in his limited involvement. Then you move down a whole bunch and Mark Andrews is the next player at twelve point too. But the problem is there's ten other tight ends that finished between ten and twelve PPR points. That's a pretty big swath of tight ends there with very similar production.

I can get Mike Gesicki six rounds later. He had five fewer catches, the exact same amount of yards and one fewer touchdown then Mark Andrews. So it's more about I don't like that tier, and I'm going to take the guys at the back end of that tier six rounds later than Mark Andrews. I see, that's a perfect there's a perfect answer. That's a player you like with a Ratchell. It's not because he's not a good player, Brian, I never said I did like Julio Jones. You dead

we Cannibal all right? Who is the tight end you love? But never end up Ard? I just hate guts at tight end seven. I'm not drafting stupid Dallas Goddard. But Dallas Goddard is my answer. He's clinging to that secondary top tier of tight ends that I think you were mentioning. I think he's the last guy in and I don't like pick up the last guy in a tier or

the first guy in the forthcoming tier. Um, I'd rather wait much later on tight ends of I'm contemplaining a guy like Goddard, who was strong in the second half last year. Uh, and that is when Jalen Hurts was playing quarterback for the most part for Philly, but zach Ertz was also hurt. Then, Uh, he's back, He's still in Philly. Looked pretty good on Thursday night, by the way zach Ertz did. Philly also added a weapon in DeVante Smith and uh, long story short, just Goddard at

tight ends seven. We need arts to get hurt again. We need all the wide receivers to fall apart again, which is quite possible. But and I know you're not sold on Jalen Hurts as a passer either, nor am I. Although I'll be fair, I liked what I saw Thursday night Hurts. I'm starting to warm up a little bit surprised Brian didn't say everybody but Darren Waller and Dan Arnold everybody else. It's kind of true. I know what I'm talking about, the tight end. The tight end I adore,

but I never end up. Why do you adore him so much? Because it's George kittle Oh he's so good, obviously a great and a freakish talent, and there's so much to like about him. But the problem is, if I'm spending an early round pick on tight end, I want Kelsey or Waller, who I like even more at least this season. And there's some other factors as well. I mean, you know where he's going early. Third round

is where you have to pick George kittle Man. There's some great wide receivers available, like a J. Brown and Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin, or runners like Chris Carson or j K. Dobbins, or I can have quarterback one again, have Patrick Mahomes, who earlier in this show I said could set the old time passing record for yards and touchdowns this year. So I just to be there's so many other options. I'm not spending that early third round

pick on my on my third favorite tight end. Now that's a great answer, charge job, I GA, there's no difference in the theme of any of our answers. But okay, that is that is so not true. When we come back our final segment, we'll talk about some strategies for playing guillotine leagues, our favorite sleepers this year, and plenty more when we come back. Fantasy Football Weekly returns final segment of Fantasy fook A Weekly. Do you miss any

part of this show? Not only is it an over the air broadcast, it is also a podcast, Fantasy Football Weekly, available on every platform that services podcasts, including the I Heart Radio app. I Am Paul charging my co host or Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison. Final segment. We always unveil a sleeper each Last week, I gave you Gus Edwards, which was brilliant. If I may say so myself, I've got another sure fire sleeper for you coming up in moments.

But first, Brian Johnson, You're sleeper this week is you're obviously getting Dan Arnold from me and my first big show. That's not even a sleeper. Everybody's awake him if they've been listening to this show. People are very woke that have been listening to me about Dan Arnold. It's only gonna get better as time goes By was virtually going undrafted earlier in the summer unless I was in the league.

But he has creeped up to draftable eight teen UH round leagues, which is very standard, especially in best ball um. Back to Arnold UH tight end twenty one. Last season with Arizona, missed a couple of games, only saw forty five targets. Now, to put that into perspective, guys like Hunter, Henry Noah, Fan, Dalton Schultz, Mike Sicky, Eric Ebron, they saw roughly ninety targets. Arnold saw half of that ninety targets. It's like, it's a good thing that your guy was

only targeted times. It was in Arizona. They don't utilize their tight ends very much. And I'm not so sure Cliff Kingsbury knows what he's doing. But I like the volume he's gonna see in Carolina, and I'm gonna just gonna double the production he had on those forty five targets to the ninety that he'll at least see in Carolina. That would come out to sixty catches, eight eighty yards and eight touchdowns. Arnold had three targets inside the ten yard line last year, just three scored on all three

of them. He was number one among all tight ends and average depth of target he was ninth and yards after the catch per reception. He's going to see the ball a lot in this off fence and he's virtually unguardable in the ends of I'm not kidding you, I'm saying it. So Dan Arnold, do not let him go undrafted in your drafts. Get him at the end. I like Curtis that Curtis Samuel's gone. That could open up

some middle of the field stuff for Dan Arnold. And people might say, you know, Christian McCaffrey was back, that's bad for d J. Moore and all the receivers. D J. Moore was wide receiver nine and twenty nine team when McCaffrey had the record setting season and he fell off entirely without So what's with McCaffrey back? That opens things up for all the pass catchers. I can really see

how that comparison between DJ Moore effects Dan Arnold. An offensive coordinator Joe Brady was with Dan Arnold in New Orleans. He won't he went out and how did he use? He was a raw rookie who was a converted wide receiver. You always say, don't look at last year, right charge, you're looking back now two years now and trying he's on the trajectory to the moon. You heard it here first. I heard it at first last year. Matt, who is your sleeper? This week? I'm gonna talk a little history

to um. Darnell Mooney is my sleeper. You can get him in the eleventh or twelfth round right now. Remember when I was talking about Tyler Lockett and his double digit target games, Well, Lockett had three last year and Mooney had to. In fact, since Darnell Mooney's targets last year, we're good for seventh amongst rookie wide receivers target share in their rookie year right. Um, Now, the guy has never had a one yard game and he only scored four times last year, but he was catching balls from

Nick Foles and Sad trombone ski. M hm. The upgrade to Andy Dalton is one thing, but the upgrade to Justin Fields is a whole another thing. And Fields and Mooney they're often seen together at Bears camp developing. Maybe possibly people aren't thinking about him because he didn't have that one huge outing last year. He's gonna have several of them this year. He needed to finish it off. I look, I'm going to have very few chances to play my trombo and stuff this year. That's what you think.

Unless something awful happens to Josh Allen and let's not let's hope it doesn't come to going off in the twelve round is quarterback eighteen is trail tray, Lance, He is going player four in your draft tray Lance. Um, Yes, he's gonna eat up the roster spot, a roster spot for a while. So if you're in if you're in a league with thin roster spots, I can understand where maybe you can't take a guy who's not going to start for a while. But you know, really it's around twelve.

How many guys have like league winning upside in round twelve? Not many? But he does. And why does tray Lance have league winning upside? You might say, well, number one monster arm capable of stretching the field. Number two three excellent receivers, George Kittle, Brandon Ayuk and Deebo Samuel. All three are excellent. He's got running backs who can catch and you can throw there. But what makes tray Lance

a league buster is the rushing yard potential. That's the secret sauce for fantasy quarterbacks who put up gigantic games, and that could be coming for tray Lance as well. So then the next question might be, well, okay, but how long do I gotta hold him? Then? To get to this point, I think he could start as early as Week seven. San Francis has got the earliest bye

week they've got Week six? Is there bye week? The three games before the Week six by San Francisco plays green Bay that was a thirteen win operation last year, Seattle a twelve win team, and Arizona that was an eight win team, they could easily. San Francisco could lose two of those three games head into the by and start Trey Lance. Week seven. One of the Niners beat reporters has logged all of Garoppolo's throws, all of Tray Lances throws throughout camp through midweek of this past week.

Garoppolo a sixty two percent completion rate, six interceptions and six touchdowns. I think we mentioned this, we did. And Trey Lance completion rates ten touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns, and two interceptions. You roll all that together, it looks to me like Trey Lance is gonna win that job now, in fairness Garoppolo's cocaine camp. But here's the beauty of it.

Think about this, executing this option. Take Trey Lance in week sorry, round twelve, Take Jimmy Garoppolo in round eighteen, and go to world with the Niners quarterback all season. You get Kyle, You get a Kyle Shanahan lad quarterback. All that talent, all the all the receiving options sounds good to me. I'm on board. I gotta take Dan Arnold in the eighteenth, so I can. You probably have to take him in the seventeenth. Now, look what you've done, Brian,

You're gonna personally move the needle. You know, I'll reach around on Dan Arnold anything, Brian. Let's talk about some strategies for those dabbling in a guillotine league for the first time, and especially draft related strategy. Do you want to go over with a guillotine league is real quickly? Yeah, sure I do. You start the season with eighteen teams.

This is a whole new format, and you don't play any head to head and instead, at the end of week each week, the low scoring team gets cut and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire and at that point, everybody, you know, never in fantasy football do you end up in a scenario where the waiver wears anything other than just dropped players flots some guys that you know might have a chance to rend your reason you never get like here's Alvin Kmara and Patrick Mahomes

and Keenan Allen and yeah, se Kwon Barkley is going to be a guy hitting the waiver wear very often. He could in the first month of the season, yes he could. And well, you know what, it's funny you say that. So you're in the guillotine that you're playing not to lose because I have to do is not finished. Last you get nothing from being the highest scoring team that week. No, you just don't be last in any given week. So the whole profile of your draft should

it change, and if it doesn't, you're doing it wrong. Matt, you hit on one of the key elements of Guillotine League drafting strategy, and it's safety. Um. I have a Guillotine League cheat sheet as well over at shock Fantasy dot com where we map out the first couple of

weeks of the schedule. I believe it's just like yours charge. Um. We got the a DP from from your Guillotine League site on there as well, And there's guys that I punished, like way way way down like Sae Kwon Barkley, who I have as my number twenty two running back on my cheat sheet. He's down that low because he gets Denver, Washington, Atlanta, New Orleans in the first four weeks, and three of

those four were top eight defenses against running backs. Like we don't even know coming off the a c L, Sae Kwon Barkley going to be healthy at all? And exactly maybe if he's not healthy, he's not what's his workload going to be? Like something going to be diminished? Somebody in your Guillotine league is gonna go se Kwon Barkley, and I'm pick seventeen in the draft. They're going to

take him. They're going to regret that decision because your strategy is don't be last, be second to last every week. If you're second to last every week, you'll win the league. The better saying is if you ain't last your first that's right every week. And now, I don't want to any cheat sheet beef between you guys, but like Matt said, you definitely want to target safety, avoid risk, especially very early on in the season, and chart your premium cheat

sheet on guillotine dot com. Many things is like strength of schedule through weeks one through four, like se Kuon Barkley, who you said, I can see very clearly. I get the beef coded cheat sheet that s Kuon Barkley is the seventh hardest strength of schedule for running backs weeks

one through four, so I'm all out on him. I'm also seeing data broke down just how players finished in the first half of the season based on the last half of the season last year, what percentage of their games are inside the top twelve based on outside of the top thirty very useful information on charge of premium GAIETA lead cheat sheets. So yeah, you got to avoid the risk, target the safety and other things you don't

want to do in a GAIA team league's draft. Unlike best Ball, where you kind of want to stack teams and go all in on teams to get a high school you you spread out in gay team leagues. You don't want to buy your portfolio exactly, much better way to put it, even it's even if it's the Chiefs. You don't want to put all your eggs in one basket because if they roll over dead one week, you're

get and beheaded. So yeah, don't stack the same teams and and just draft smart because you want to save your FAB as long as possible going into this season. You're gonna be tempted to spend big bucks on Alvin Kamara if he's on the waiver wire in Week two. But the longer you hold your FAB and control the board in that regard, the more power you have moving along in this season. I think it's important that you guys mentioned the fab part, and maybe we haven't explained

that quite well enough. You get a thousand dollars worth of free agent bidding allowance for the year, but you get it for the year, so you get one thousand for the year, not for every week, just for the whole year. You could spend nine dollars on Christian McCaffrey if he becomes available, but then you've got a hundred dollars for the rest of the year and you're probably not getting anything good until the very very end of

the year. Another drafting strategy. Another drafting tip um look out for rookies very dangerous in guilloteen leagues because you're trying to survive, especially through the early weeks of this season when everybody because there's eighteen teams in the Guillotine League, your roster is not great. You're just trying to survive for the first month of the season so you can hit the waiver wire and get more help and build

up a better roster. And rookies. As much as we love rookies like Javonte Williams, I think it's gonna be great, But is he gonna be great in September? Maybe not. Look at Jonathan Taylor last year. He was not a reliable starter until December. And so rookies are guys that you need to be careful about. And one other element for from a drafting strategy for guillotine leagues. So you should know you gotta pay attention to the bye weeks. Normally,

in my redrafts, I don't pay, I don't care. But if you you want to avoid early by weeks because your team's wobbly at the beginning of the year, and when you've take Says and Saints that have a week six by that earliest buys, you don't you know when you're losing Alvin Kamara, you don't have a replacement who's very good by week six and all probability. And if you've got three or four starters that have weeks six, you've got a huge problem them on your hands. Yeah

you said, uh. In redraft a players standalone by virtually worthless information. But in a guy tea league, very very important to pay attention to win their bias. Not only that bye week stacking is terrible. You don't want to do the bye week stacking, but the later the bye week,

the longer you have that player. So targeting players with weeks thirteen and fourteen buys it's actually a valuable tiebreaker when you're looking at two players absolutely Guillotine league dot com for all of that and more public leagues, private leagues to your friends. However, you like to play your guillotine leagues at guillotine leagues dot com. Uh. Thanks everybody, appreciate listening. Matt Ryan, great job. Thank you have any

part of the show. Check out our podcast, available on the i heart Radio app and wherever you get your podcast, Fantasy Football Weekly Talking to a week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.