The Infra-Red Zone

site called shock Fantasy dot Com. Yes, yes, we will get you ready. It's we're hitting drafting season, guys. I'm in the middle of four email drafts right now. I think it'd be three mail and one auction. It's you know, there's I would call it ultimate drafting season. It's kind of been drafting season for a while Simus in the industry. Yes, most people getting getting into it now. I think that's the first the first week where I feel like there's

really a lot of momentum happening with fantasy drafts. Were here to get you ready in a wide variety of ways. We're gonna talk through some of the notes from training camps. We will take one of the deep dive data points that we usually only have at our in person live Fantasy football training camp, which this year is not happening. That so lucky you guys who didn't come to training camp. Ever, has there been a better spot for the sad trombon Sky than you know what it really is? It really

is sad. Where hey keep that sad warm up? Today? Okay, good um, we will tell you about the the things that happened inside the five yard line that you need to know about. This is one of my favorite deep analytical dives. We're gonna touch on every single team and what they do inside the five and how that can benefit your fantasy team. We've got three tough questions. Well, identified the player as we like, but we hate their average draft position, so we never end up with them.

And it's not that we just hate these guys, we just won't pay their price. It's like love the player, hate the game. It is kind of like that. Okay, And then at the end of the show, we'll have our sleepers and Matt Harrison will tell you how to capitalize on the first month of the season. I'm a big believer in fast starts. When you start three and one, four and oh, four and one, five and oh, you've got a lot of roster equity going and life becomes

a whole lot easier. You can start transitioning even at that point already to some advanced thinking. So lots to get to over the course of the show. We begin with notes from almost every team around the league, and Matt. Let's start with the Panthers. Russell o'koung, who we talked about last week when we said he's considering retirement due to COVID. He's still not playing in camp because he's

dealing with some back issues as well. So something's lingering stuff with o'koung, and it's looking more and more likely that he might not be ready for the beginning of the season or at all this year. You know, I'm so nervous about the Panthers offense in general that I'm having an increasingly hard time keeping Christian McCaffrey at pick one oh one. I'm going to ruin that for you in the schedule analysis part of the show, and I hope that's right. Uh, Brian, Let's go to the Las

Vegas Raiders. Yeah, not going to Oakland out of Raiders camp. Brian Edwards looks to be the guy over Henry Ruggs, who was the first overall wide receiver taken in the draft. We called that a mistake when they made it. So yeah, Bryan Edwards, if you're in redraft, if you're targeting a rookie wide receiver, it's him, not Rugs and uh worth mentioning. The Raiders are one of three teams in the running for Jadeveon Clowney, the Titans and the Seahawks or the

other two. And that's worth mentioning because if I got Raiders on my team, I don't want their defense getting any better. Well not if you have Josh Jacobs, because you don't want the negative game script. So the defense helped Josh terre point. Fair point there. But but they're they're they might land Clowney. That would be a big signing front who gets them in Green Bay? A. J.

Dillon's the second round running back, drawing strong reviews. General manager Brian Gudkuns compared him to Eddie Lacy this week in a good way. Uh. Social media blew up with photos of his herculean legs. I think that was mostly due to the fact he was wearing Hooters shorts. They were they're tiny shorts have I think they're just tiny

on him. Uh. Aaron Rodgers also noted that A. J. Dillon's skills are great, but he needs to get caught up on the playbook, which is pretty much true for Annie rookie and you know what for running backs, getting caught up on the playbook is not hard. That will happen. Let's go to Washington, Matt Bryce Love is getting reps with the first team. So is Dwayne Haskins. By the way, while Alex Smith returned to practice this week, he's not yet part of eleven on eleven drills Alex Smith as

of yet, so Haskins still at the one team. But Bryce Love is an interesting guy to keep kind of on your cheek sheet. Put a little bullet next to him. As Adrian Peterson ever taken a first team trading camp, trading camp never and it never matters, by the way, it was always ready to go. Someone will make any difference here either. Let's go to Buffalo. Brian the Athletics Bills beat reporter Joe Paglia believes Zack Moss's role as being under sold and head coach Sean McDermott's already praising

the past protection skills of Zack Moss. Now, some of you that have been listening to this show and our podcast going back months have been hearing me to Zack Moss. The rest of the world just now starting to catch up. If you want Zack Moss, you can't rely on old adp He's going earlier and earlier. In drafts I held this past week, he went in pick with picks seven and eight in the first round in different draftskie draft.

You cook him from one of the over cam akers and it was, by the way, is the happy trombone like the precursor to the peacock? Like you haven't quite You don't have the results yet to so you can happy trombone. It looks it still looks good. The Texans, and updating a story from last week's segment, Kenny Stills is now active in practicing. He's still the fourth wide receiver in the pecking order, though Deshaun Watson, while we're speaking of the receivers, says that Will Fuller is quote

going to ball out. M hm. That's good. Coach Bill O'Brien says, Will Filler quote looks as good as he's ever looked. Now, a lot of those words generally don't mean anything when they actually get to this point, you know, actually start the season. But we, as we've talked about before, if you give me sixteen games and Will Fuller, we're talking about guy who could easily be a top ten ish wide receiver share. That's the kind of upside we get.

Let's go to Tampa Bay. Matt offensive tackle Tristan Worth's has struggled mightily with the first team in practice so far. However, the real news, the Tampa Bay Bucks official website is saying the standout at camp is Ronald Jones. It's happening. I think, uh, I think Ronald Jones. It's I think there's no doubt, at least based on we know right now. Ronald Jones is the back to half, which we as

we've discussed before. It all sounds good until his abysmal pass block it gets Tom Brady killed, and then they got to make a change. Brian. Let's go to Cleveland. So Nick Chubb suffered a concussion. I don't recall many training campncussions ever, but he's in concussion protocol right now. It should be good for a week one and a couple quote unquote should be ready for Week one guys that are very fantasy relevant or Jarvis hand Uh Landry with a hip injury and starting center j C. Trader

with a knee injury. So the one guy who is ready for Week one right now or appears to be as O b J who looks pretty good. Classic, but yeah, we had a monitor Chub Landry and j C. Tredder. Of course you want your starting center healthy for the start of Week one. In Kansas City, when Clyde Edwards Hlaire had to miss a day practice this week, it was Darryl Williams who got the first team reps. It

was not DeAndre Washington. And this is an evolving battle that will will be worth watching throughout the preseason because that could be a potentially very valuable handcuff for Clyde Edwards. Lair, Let's go to Detroit. Matt I saw a headline on ESPN that said, carry on Johnson not dealing with injury. Yeah, but he's not getting a ton of work in practice either, And Matt Patricia said that was planned, which means he's the second team player right now. It's DeAndre Swift DeAndre

Swift is going too late in draft. That guy, he's so much better than carry On Johnson, so much healthier. He's going to get the vast majority of the work there, I believe, Brian. Let's go to the New York Jets. Rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was slated to start on the outside opposite of Brashad Perriman, still sideline with a hamstring injury. Breshad Perriman pretty much unproven to me still and most people, so. I like Jameson Crowder even more.

I've touted him here multiple times, averaged eight targets. With a healthy Sam Donald, He's gonna be a PPR mon certain Chris Herndon is lining up as a slot receiver, outside receiver and tight end right now. I don't have like any Chris Herndon right now in any of my league's I'm kind of sad about it because not even in your tight end only league, not even in my tight end only league. Auction the league by the way, with the big boys play. Let's go to the Rams.

Josh Reynolds wide receivers all but locked up the third receiver job over rookie Van Jefferson. The Rams play a lot of three receiver sets, and Reynold's gonna get a lot of playing time. Currently going off the board as wide receiver eighty three, and he's walking into Brandon Cook's role. He's gonna run Brandon Cooks routes and he's wide receiver receiver eighty three for Josh Reynolds. Let's go to the Seattle Seahawks. Matt Um, you remember Philip Dorsett does a Seahawk.

It's kind of weird, right, Yeah. Pete Carroll just said he's the fastest guy they've ever had in camp. Dang, and they have Tyler Lockett, who, by the way, is very fast like ever had ever Percy Harvin was pretty fast, he said, like Philip Dorset's the fastest guy ever. Well, it's fine, but if if he could, if you were fast and could catch, he'd still be on his original team, not his third. T K Metcalf, who like broke all the Combine records last year. Brian, Let's go to Denver.

Broncos coach Vic Fangio said he anticipated both Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsley quote playing enough where we don't really have to designate a starter. Great, Yeah, that's what we'll talk more about these guys when we go inside the five later on Vikings. IRV Smith tight end getting a lot of first team playing time and is expected to linep in the slot a lot more often. The Vikings run a lot of two tight end sets and so both he and Kyl Rudolf will be on the field

together often. So it looks like there's an opportunity for Irv Smith to get some extra reps from what we saw last year, Matt, Let's go to Philadelphia. Miles Sanders considered weak. Too weak, That's not good with an undisclosed lower body injury. By the way, Boston Scott not Scott Fish at Boston Market. Uh, he's day to day with a lower body injury. Day to day is a little

better than week to week. So Corey Clement opened the UH the practice yesterday is the first team runner with Elijah holy Field getting some first team reps to I didn't even think Elijah holy Field just canna end up in the league this year. Real deal holy Field Home, it happens for him. Brian Miami, Uh, take her pantsop charge stew beer. It appears to be the clear cut starter about it. I know that's great. Well, I think you should be the starter definitely too. It looks good

though in camp. Sambiyah Fitzpatrick will start in Pittsburgh. It's positive reviews on Ben Roethlisberger's arm and his return. Remember he's thirty eight years old. It's coming up a major elbow surgery with three torn ligaments in the elbow, but people are noting good philosophy. Accuracy has been inconsistent, but people are saying that it looks like the old arm is there and it makes you wonder if maybe people are sleeping on this offense a little bit. And he

finally conditioned in the off season too. It appears for the first time his career. How about that. Congrats, Let's go to Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy was asked by a member of the press, what's Tony Pollard's useage you gonna be this year? Mike mccarth he said, I won't discuss that because it's gonna be a lot. Yep. I'm telling you people, if it was nothing, he would say, Zeke's our guy. He didn't want to discuss. Listen, I'm telling you this is one of my biggest takes from

this offseason. Tony Pollode role is going to improve a lot. We're going to negotiate an Empire League trade driving break here. I'm interested in that. Let's go to the Patriots. Brian Beat writer Mike Reese speculated that the team could deploy a quarterback rotation early in the season, and Belichick didn't rule it out. But Jared Sidama by all nursing bad. Yeah, and he's nursing a leg injury. Uh, and I expect to practice much on Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Cam's still going

to get the job. But there's of course, it's New England, so they're muscling things up out there in San Francisco. Wide receiver Jalen Hurd went on went on I r with a torn a c L and of course, as you probably remember, Deebo Samuel nursing a foot injury as well, so Brandon I was gonna start. Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis are also getting first team reps, and that looks that might be your starting route for Week one for the forty Niners. Let's go to the New York Giants.

You're in a league with kickers, Graham Gano just got signed and they released Chandler Catons. Oh that's it, foul. Let's go to the Titans. Uh. Corey Davis, who was on the publist, was quitted to practice on Monday. Running Back Darrington Evans rookie who should back up Derrick Henry has fumbled twice already, So just play Derrick Henry every down. And if they did, you b RB one overall in my mind, if you got like fifty six targets per year.

And the tight ends coach loves John H. Smith Church, Yeah, baby, John, I can't. I can't quiet yet, but I can, Yeah Smith Baby? Oh, why is your hand inside your shirt? I need to hand you this roll of paper towels. That was quite the look. In Baltimore, the media is gushing over Mark Andrews. He's running through the second and third levels of a very good Ravens defense, healthier than last year, and with Hayden Hurst Atlanta. Everybody expects a

another leap from Mark Andrews this year. He is my tight end number three, but I believe going off the board of tighten four or five in most drafts right now, Matt, Matt, Let's go to Atlanta. Really nice reports about Brian Hill and Cadre Allison. In practice, it seems like the Falcons are prepping their fan base for their backups to take over in the inevitable case that Todd Gurley is missing time now, which is going to happen. And we've got

Ido Smith who's still in that mix as well. Bengals Brian uh starting cornerback Trey Wayne, who you might remember of your local Minnesota here, underwent surgery to report report repair a torn peck and is expected to miss most of so that hurts the defense and kind of helps the offense outside of Joe Mixon Matt We go to Arizona for the Cardinals. DeAndre Hopkins missed a handful of practices with a hamstring tweak, but he returned to the

field yesterday. And for the Jaguars, Brian rich Hill Armstead activated from the COVID list, and he was a fifth round rookie last year at a temple and he showed some flashes and the this is worth mentioning because he could push Leonard four Net. Yes, Jacksonville is on their way. They're done with him essentially, so right kill Armstead is worth the late round flyer right now, right, Matt, Chicago Bears will round out your final team ready for the

sounder chart. Nick Foles and Mitchell true Bisky are currently alternating days as the starter in camp. Cordarrell Patterson, by the way, is sitting in on running back meetings. This is his name. I'm telling you this is his best position is running back. There that with that running backs they've got, that's not you could be the best running back on roster. Might be Chicago's gonna have the number one pick next year, yes they are. The defense defense

is not good enough? All right, Brian, you know, wrap up this lunacy of yours with the Chargers, please sort of such. Now that's a team, that's a team that could be, that could have the first pick. No not. Their defense is pretty good too. Justin Jackson looks locked into the back up running back role. We all love Austin Nichola, but keep your eye on Joshua Kelly. He's gonna usurp Jackson sooner than later. All right, there you go.

We've gone around almost all thirty two teams. A couple of teams didn't have much worth mentioning, and so you know we care about your time and what actually matters if you want to play the freshest new format and fantasy football. It's called the Guillotine League. Seventeen teams start the season and each week the low scoring team gets eliminated and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire, where pandemonium ensues. If you'd like to play along, go

to Guillotine leagues dot com. When we come back inside the five yard line, what's the one thing you need to know from every team inside the five yard line? And why it's so important for you to know? When we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly, Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Archie and my co host or Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. Every year at our Fantasy Football training camp, a live event in Minneapolis, we unveil what every team's tendencies are inside the five and

we should say them. Well, it's been my bit. Now you're passing the book. Now now you're making us do your word. What the heck? We're dividing up three ways. We're gonna talk about every team and what they do inside the five and why you should care? Well, why should you care? Number one? That's where touchdowns are scored and breaking news. Fantasy players like touchdowns. It's easy fantasy points from inside the five. This is where great fantasy

players score, and they do so copiously inside the five. Now, if you're thinking to yourself, well, it's what about the other yards? Blah blah blah. Here's the thing. I want you to think of a number. How many touchdowns do you think we're scored from inside the five last year? To the infrared zone? You I kind of like infra red zone. I like that. How many touchdowns were scored inside the five? Put a number in your head? Nice?

Do you believe it was more than one hundred more than two hundred three three hundred touchdowns from inside the five last year? No? The answer is five hundred four touchdowns were scored from inside the five yard line last year in the NFL? Five hundred four. Do you want a part of that on your fantasy team? As many as possible on your fantasy All of them? Yeah? Well all would be ideal. You'd have to a very large roster to capture all of them. So a lot of touchdowns.

I wouldn't expect that many touchdowns. And the whole are you are you sure you didn't count all the touchdowns from all year five four touchdowns, which is more than Matt. Gonna breakdown every team, I want to know, you're gonna tell listeners the one thing that people need to know. We're gonna do each team. We're gonna start with Carolina From inside the five. No team threw more passes inside the five yard line than the Panthers last season with

twenty eight. And you'd think it was Christian mccaffy. I would think it was he only had three targets inside the five. The infrared zone threat was Curtis Samuel seven targets. I don't remember that working out too well. Five reception touchdowns. On the year, he had four touchdowns from inside the infrared zone, which was tied for the most in the league for receptions for for touchdown receptions, yeah, very interesting,

tied with Julio Jones and Zach ERT's. Nice job. I wouldn't have guess Julio Jones either because he scored a few times. You wouldn't nicely done, Brian, What do people need to know? Inside the five? From the Las Vegas Raiders, Josh Jacobs had the eighth most attempts inside the infrared, and he turned those into the fourth most yards last

year and scored five touchdowns on his attempts. Now, if he can see attempts like the Big Boys, the mccaffery's, and the Mixings of the world, we're talking right up there one territory he he was, he was below them in his attempts. But if he can see those and what will be an improved offense. Most would think Josh Jacobs might be a round one pick that's going in round two. Raiders are a have one of the best offensive lines in football too, so they should be very

effective there. And I'm glad you brought this up for people that aren't familiar with deep inside the five stuff. What you want from a good running back is right around a fifty percent conversion rate for touchdowns on these area's inside the five. You want to see ten carries, five touchdowns. That's what you're looking for in a for an effective goal line style back. Let's go to the Packers.

Last year, Aaron Jones had the sixth most carries from inside the five, and he converted them for ten touchdowns, which was tied for the most in the league. So the question is what happens if a j Dillon gets half of that that workload, does that does that strip him of five touchdowns right there from last year and really drop him down maybe a whole round or two in production. And get this as a quick side note, the Green Bay wide receivers caught one pass all year

from inside the five last season. Matt, Let's go to the Washington football team. Uh, they only scored eleven times from inside the five last year. That was bottom four in the league. And they only had twelve running back carries from inside the five. Adrian Peterson had seven of those and the other five went to guys who are no longer on the tape, so that's not touched to glean there. Peterson is probably gonna get the goal line work,

probably so, Brian. Let's go to the Buffalo Bills. So last year Frank Gore oh was one of twelve Lord God mort uh it carries inside the five yard line. He's clearly gone sadly for the New Jersey Jets. He's a Jet. But all those carries are going to queue it up. Charge Zack Moss baby, yes, Zack Man can't wait. Devin Singletary needs to be such an afterthought at this point, he only had three carries inside the ten yard line last year. He's not touching the ball the money zone.

It's all Zack moss Man and Josh Allen, of course, but more Zack moss and Josh. For the Texans, Deshaun Watson led the team in touchdowns from inside the five. This is rushing, by the way, rushing touchdowns and I had the five with five of them. Carlos Hyde had just nine carries inside the five last year. So how does that maybe translate to David Johnson. Well, last year David Johnson got six carries in the five for Arizona

and converted them to just two touchdowns. But for I'll note for this in fairness to David Johnson for his career, he's a fifty percent conversion back, and again that's the number we're really looking for. So David Johnson will get those those Carlos hi to carries and more. Let's go to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I got a lot to chew on in this one. So Tampa was a top five running team from inside the five with twenty seven

run plays called last year. So was the New England Patriots, who had thirty three run plays called inside the five. Bring that up because Tom Brady is now the quarterback in Tampa. Peyton Barber had ten of their carries, Dagnally had seven of those carries, and Ronald Jones only had four carries. So worrisome did they trust Roe Joe near the stripe? They should? All four of his carries went

first scores. Okay, well, that's a good sign. Also, Mike Evans was second in the league with eight infrared zone targets. That seems good until you realize that Tom Brady he was an awful thrower from inside the five. He went four for twenty with only two touchdowns last year inside the five. Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. Brian, Yeah, this is glaring. Nick Chubb fifteen attempts inside the five for negative fourteen yards last year and just two touchdown. Yeah,

I don't get it. I just you know the line was banged up and it is revamped. I mentioned J. C. Treader the starting center might not go week one, he should go. But Cream Hunt had one carry inside the five convert into a three yard touchdown. Uh. We'll talk a little more about Chubb and Hunt later, but it

seems like hunting needs a little more work inside the five. Yeah, maybe, so you know, keep in mind they put a first round pick in an early first round pick at left tackle of Jack Conklin is a right tackle, so the line is improved. The efficacy of that line and inside the five should be very good reminder. We're talking about the one thing you need to know for each team

inside the five yard line. For the Colts, head coach Frank Wright didn't mind using a lot of runners inside the five, which may end up frustrating fantasy owners a end. Last year, mac Hines, Williams, and Wilkins all got carries, and even Jacoby percented five carries. And Jacoby percent is not the most mobile fleet of foot quarterback. Yeah, but he didn't have Jonathan Taylor last year. He did not, But I still think it goes to show where some

of his predilections lie. Let's go to the Detroit Lions. Man Marvin Jones had two touchdowns from inside the five in one game against Minnesota last year, and that was the most exciting thing the Lions did from inside the five. They're super boring. Carry On had ten carries and scored only three times and he was their most utilized player inside the five. The second most touches went to Wes

hillis not Peyton hillis No, Who's west hillis? I don't know, Okay, some guy who got five carries from inside the five last year for the Lions. Let's move on to the Jets. Uh. They were dead last in red zone scoring attempts per game at two point one and that's from the twenty inn so from the five and end there wasn't a lot of action for the Jets. They were dead last

in Russia attempts sinside the five with nine rushes. That's nine times they ran the ball in So Levy on Bell just feels like fool's gold to me at this point. Kansas City's last. For Kansas City last year, Lashawn McCoy and Darryl Williams, not Damien Williams. Darryl Williams led the team in rushes inside the five with thirteen of them. Those are all up for grabs this year in my mind. And oddly, get this, the Chiefs tied for the fewest touchdown passes from inside the five, which I guess is

just because Patrick Mahomes scores from farther away. Than does. I imagine that's part of it. But back to the running backs just for a minute. This might be another indication that Darry Williams got some sneaky value that maybe most people don't realize. Let's go to the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks were very balanced inside the infrared zone. Eight rushing touchdowns with Chris Carson getting five of them on nine carries. Eight passing touchdowns, with no player having more

than two. So the combo of Jacob Hollister, will dis Lee and linebacker Nick Blore, they combined for half of the receiving touchdowns. Those canna all go to Greg Olsen. This year for the Denver Broncos, what are they doing inside the five? This is probably the most split backfield in the NFL right now, the toughest one to peg um.

Philip Lindsay was great inside the five last year, eight carries fourteen yards for five touchdowns, and people think he's just this tiny scat back like he's Trek Cohen and he's not. And then Melvin Gordon, of course with the Chargers last year, who held out for the first four games, he ended up with the fifth most carries inside the five. With thirteen and his fifteen yards inside the five was third most, so he was very effective as well. So what it boils down to is you take the cheaper

guy in Philip Lindsay and ADP. But this is like the most split down the middle backfield in the NFL going into the season. In my opinion, Philip Lindsay's going dirt cheap and a lot cheap. Too cheap. You know, two years ago he was sensational, last year he was Matt. I think people are I think for where he's where he's going. It's too late, all right. Let's go to the last Angelist rams who scored the most rushing touchdowns

from inside the five fifteen of them. Todd Gurley led the team by a wide margin, fifteen carries for eight touchdowns in this year. All of those carries go to my guy, Malcolm Brown. Alcolm Brown had eight carries four five touchdowns last year. Malcolm Brown could be your sneaky goal line back for the team that had the most rushing touchdowns from inside the five last year. Take me Town Cantalons another late round sleeper running back, uh Matt Our final team of this segment where there's a two

segment deal inside the five? What does Philadelphia do inside the five? The Eagles had twenty five touchdowns from the infrared zone, that was the most in the league last year, And while Jordan Howard led the team on the ground with five touchdowns on ten carries, don't necessarily think that all goes to Miles Sanders. This year, Sanders converted six carries for only two scores, while five ft six, two hundred three pound Boston Scott converted all four series inside

the five. First time, I guess that he's the goal line back Boston Scott. Maybe I don't, man, I'd have to believe it. I'd have to see it to believe it. Well, we saw it four times last year. It doesn't seem likely that that's the case, but maybe so. If you'd like to get my cheat sheet with all my player rankings, including some of these sleeper players were talking about, go to Guillotine league dot com. My cheet available for free

Guillotine leagues dot com. When we came back the other half of the NFL, what do they do inside the five? And what are the tendencies and sleeper guys you can identify? We all love touchdowns. We'll tell you how to find him when we come back. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison Bryan Johnson with you, breaking down what happens inside the five yard line last year, the total number of touchdowns scored inside the five five

hundred four. It matters to know what teams do inside the five yard line. We've already identified about half of the team's last segment this segment, let's carry on, beginning with the Miami Dolphins. Brian So the Dolphins only totaled sixteen rush attempts inside the five last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick was second on the that's my guy, Calen Blage. I'm not so sure if Bellage is still on the team, But of course there are new faces here with Jordan

Howard and Matt Brita. But if you're looking for running back action inside the five yard line, look at other teams. Basically well, based on what we've seen so far, Yeah, Jordan Howard's tempting. I would lean Howard over Brita if I was picking one, just because he seems to be the guy inside the five. He's built for it is sneaky PPR guy. Though Vikings led the NFL, and handoffs inside the five last year led the NFL thirty four of them, also, by the way, known as double what

Miami had for handoffs inside the five. Dalvin Cook lad all runners with twenty one carries and his nine touchdowns were third most. We do not expect that to change in either front. Let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Zeke scored ten times on eighteen carries inside the five. That's an excellent production. It is uh no Dallas pass catcher had more than one target in the infrared zone except Jason Witten, who only had four. Dallas only ran eleven pass plays inside the five. Let's go to the Saints.

Two years ago, selling Sean Payton handed the ball to his runners thirty times inside the five. That was two years ago. Last year twelve carries inside the five. That's it. And Camara got eight carries. Mury Murray got just four. And they combined from the five touchdowns and the year before that, they run for twenty one times. I think at Sean Payton probably views last I think that was that was an unusual event last year, and I think those carries probably do end up coming back. Brian, Let's

go to the Patriots. The Patriots were second in running back handoffs inside the five last year and ranked first and rushes overall over the past three years. But who's gonna get him? Sony Michelle, Lamar Miller. Here's it's not It's not Lamar Miller. That's what we know for sure is it's what what if James White is a cow this year? What if James White is a bell cow? What if he just carries that team? He's thirty two years old. We know what his role is. What if

he is What's that's absurd? Lamar Miller is the best running back on that team right now. Okay, he's still hanging on to Lamar Miller like you're hanging on to Ryan Matthews. You guys understand how offensive line works. Matt Let's go to the Giants. Say Kwan Barkley one a bottom eight rushing attempts inside the five last year, one touchdown. Yeah, he wasn't right. The prior year eighteen carries only six touchdowns. So in two years, twenty seven percent conversion race, it's

not possible. He's a bad goal line back. Meanwhile, Wayne Gallman seven carries for three touchdowns over the last two years. Is Wayne Gallman a better running back than say quant No, but he might be a better goal line back than say Kwan Berkley. God, that would be a kick in the shorts. Off it turns out he's just start getting goal line carries to Wayne Gahlman. Don't do it. Let's go to the Titans, Bryant. The Titans have the second

fewest pass attempts inside the understandably with Derrick Henry. But but but you don't have to. They have weapons like A J. Brown and John Smith. John Smith. We'll talk about gas a little bit, all right if we must, but understandably so. But it's gonna be a fun team to watch Tennessee watch out. I hear they were good last year. Yeah they had. They beat a pretty good Baltimore team, I think, and pretty good Patriots team. The Steelers were as bad as any team running inside the

five last year. No runner had more than five carries and none had more than two touchdowns. That's it. Interesting note here Benny Snell had every Steelers carry inside the five in from in the month of December last year, so they by the end of the year, and part it was probably due to injury but at the end of the year they had gone to Benny Snell inside the five. I think that's could be a trend we'll

find out. Let's go to the Atlanta Falcons. Man. They only ran twenty seven total plays from inside the five last year. That was fifth fewest in the league. Julio Jones had four targets, converted all of them to touchdowns. Hey, let's do that some more. Yeah. By the way, Cadrey Allison was their goal line back last year. He had the most carries six carries, he had four touchdowns. Both

led the team. So if Todd Gurley, who's a notoriously good goal line back, yes, if he goes down, Cadrea Allison might be kind of the sneaky running back to play of the Falcons running backs. You know, I've tried playing this game about which Falcon do you want to go get behind Todd Gurley because Gurly's You're never gonna have a big workload and the threat of injury is very real. I just I don't think there's a clear

number two. I think I think the scenario is if Gurley is out, Cadrey Allison, at least you know he's going to get the goal line mark probably probably, but you know Smith was out for most of last year too, and it had he been there, may would have been him. I don't know. Let's go just a throat to Hayden Hurst, Brian. Let's go to your team, the Bengals, My team, the Bengals Joe Mixon. We will first off, we mentioned the conversion rate for touchdowns. Is that the five kind of

the barometer we'd like to see. Mixon's five touchdowns on eight team carries don't quite fit that criteria. He did not thrive last year, and I think those opportunities go down if a j Green can stay healthy. He was in the Tory target hog deep in the red zone in his prime, and he's still got some gas in the tank. So the little ding on mixing, but not not not a lot, a lot. Okay, let's go to the forty Niners. Frustrating lead. Kyle Shanahan gave eight different

players carries from inside the five. Kyle Jesus, Jesus, he got one, Kyle check got one. How about shannahanigans? That's what that is? Those are. Tevin Coleman led the team with nine, but he wasn't very effective with just three touchdowns on those carries inside the five. He also average point six yards per carry. Tevin Coleman did. I just don't think Coleman is very good, so I tend to

have an anti Coleman bias here. But I'll note that Tevin Coleman was given two carries in the playoffs from inside the five and he scored twice, so he's probably the goal line guy. Yuck. All right, Let's go to the Cardinals. Matt the Cards through twenty eight passes inside the five. That was tied for most in the league. And that's why Larry Fitzgerald led the league infrared zone targets with ten. No other Cardinal lot had more than one target inside the five. So how did Larry not

score more? Yeah, I don't know. She Also, Kenyan Drake scored six times on eight carries inside the five. He's pretty good in the red zone, infrared zone, I should say, as we like to say. Let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bryan. I'm sorry Leonard Fournette, but we gotta rag on you a little more minutes every every show. Eight carries for for net inside the five for negative two yards. Uh. He did have three touchdowns almost hit that mark, but

those eight we're it for Jacksonville as a team. No other team had had a WOUN player carry the ball inside the five. It's all about the past for Jacksonville. It's Gardner, Minshew or bust. That's it. That is it again. We're talking about the things you need to know from every team when they're inside the five yard line, because that's where fantasy points come from. That's where the touchdowns are easiest, and the great fantasy players score from inside

the five. We've got a final handful of team to talk through, including the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens ran the ball inside the five more than any team thirty five times. But I know what you're thinking. Lamar Jackson must have been the reason why. Uh, He's only siphoned off seven of the thirty five carries. The rest went to running backs Ravens. Still, even if you take out Lamar Jackson, the Ravens ran the fifth most rushes inside the five,

even without the seven from Lamar Jackson. Mark Ingram had sixteen carries for eight touchdowns. Right at that mark. We want to see the guy who's brutal Gus Edwards eight tries, zero touchdowns. That tells me J. K. Dobbins will get those same eight carries and he'll convert them to more than zero touchdowns. Ingram is a must target for me and guillotine leagues right now. Soft early schedule and that kind of usage early on the season. Yeah, I like the way that sounds. Um. I know we're only doing

one thing for every team, but I'll mention this. We have a little spare time here. Do you guys know which raven lead the team in targets from inside the five? I mean you think it's Mark Andrews since he scored a ton, correct, And it is not Mark Andrews, Okay aiden Hurst or Nick Boyle, Nick Boyle, Nick freaking boil and and he's still there. That's the package they use that Nick Boyle actually plays. That's right, that's the boiled package. I think I'd rather be boiled. Let's go to our

final couple of teams. The Chicago Bears man David Montgomery had the third most carries in the league from inside the five. That's a lot for a guy who's not good at it. Yeah, he only converted five of them into touchdowns. That's the exact same amount as Joe Mixon um but they have no other option. And Mitchell true Bisky the sad trombone ski himself. He only completed seven passes inside the five last year. That's very sad trombone Ski. Yep,

that's that sounds really sad. That's our guy right there. It's it's not a It's not a real competition, is it. It shouldn't been Nick Foles and Sky. It can't be. I believe our final team is the Los Angeles Chargers Black l a C. So take Melvin Gordon's fifteen attempts inside the five last year, add them to Austin Ekelers already existing nine nine times for Ekeler inside the five. But no, that's that's my fault. I was slow. It's okay.

I wasn't expecting to pull that off the cuff. But that's a lot of usage inside the five yard line. And of course, no more Melvin Gordon. So Austin Ekeler, We've said it here before, RB his potential, his name may come up again later in this show is his name will for sure come up in the next segment. How did we get through an entire segment? Of inside the five talk without vulture, the fantasy vulture. It's been so long we have missed you, fantasy vulture. Have I?

I have I missed the fantasy. Never of the birds in the fantasy community, the peacock is it's the preferred we do. We have. We prefer the peacock because it's usually good things have happened for us. But how about a little a J. Dillon. There you go, Dillon Fantasy vulture time could very well be the case. Um, while we're talking inside the five and refreshed listeners, memory Brian, which team has run the ball more than any other over the last three years? The New England Patriots, the Pats.

The highest drafted Patriots running back is James White. We don't believe James White's gonna get those carries. After that, it falls all the way to Sony Michelle at pick one hundred eleven. Now, nobody has been harder on Sony Walkman than I have. But oh no, all you have to do if you're gonna get that many carries from inside the five, all you have to do is fall forward. For Pizze, Remember when you could fall forward and get three yards? That was your nine tall new Ball have

a bunch of carries, Sony Michelle. Would you rather have Sony Michelle going off the board at one hundred eleven, knowing there's all these carries coming for Patriots runners or Damien Harris, who many people, many people believe could end up winning that job. There's a very notable and maybe and Harris is going off the board at one hundred. I'll take Lamar Miller. I will Lamar Miller's going off the board to pick two twenty four. I'm just gonna

take James White. You can't take James I'm not gonna get gold. I'm not I'm not taking In all fairness, in the past, there was Tom Brady, right, and Cam Newton kind of been a vulture inside the five for his running backs in the past. So now Lashawn McCoy over his career switching gears. The Shawn McCoy over his career has been a major goal line factor. He was so, he was so with the Eagles, he was so with the Bills, and then even in Kansas City last year. Now is he a potential guy to muck up the

works in Tampa? Lashawn McCoy, No, only if it's snowing. No one plays better than the snow. You know, I don't think it snows in Tampa a whole lot or anywhere else in the NFC South. If you're Bruce Arians and you're looking at Ronald Jones and a rookie and Keyshawn Vaughan and here is the veteran hands of Lashawn McCoy, I could be that could be a sneaky situation that could end up torpedoing some of the value for Ronald Jones. This conversation makes me uncomfortable. It's Dario, He's the guy

to own in Dampa Bay. It might be maybe he's the new James White. Maybe that's James White South. We come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Three tough questions you can play along see if you can go three and oh and if you want to try out a guillotine league, go to guillotine leagues dot Com. Play with seventeen other people. Try to be the last man standing when we cut a team every week of the season and send that team's roster the waiver wire, where you get too bid

on an entire roster of players. Guillotine leagues dot Com. Paul Charchy and Brian Johnson Matt Harrison with you back in moments. It's three tough questions on Fantasy Football Weekly. This is where I Pepper my co host Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison with three tough questions. That's the name of the segment. You've got a dog name Pepper. Two. I also have a dog name. Well, yeah, that's that's a long story. So that's that's tricky. We won't get

into it. Let's probably people probably don't want to hear about my dog. Um. Yes, these are three tough questions. We encourage you to play along. See if you can go three and oh with these tough question Number one this year, what is the viability of an auction strategy that refuses to bid more than on any player? Brian? Wait, you're letting Brian go first. Um, what's envision? We're working with a hundred dollar budget. That's the easiest math, at

least for me. You're not spending any more than nine dollars on a player. Sounds about right, Brian. Um, so this sounds like a good strategy when it comes to quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends. This is like the deepest pool of players I can remember amongst those dudes. But man, there's not a lot of running backs out there, and you gotta get at least one stud Bell cow in

your auction this year. And really I'm getting too and then just buying whatever I can because again, quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends are so deep. So but to land Christian McCaffrey even down to a Joe Mixing or Josh Jacobs, you're talking thirty bucks in an auction. So no, I I can't limit myself to uh cap per player in auctions this year. Okay, Matt should auction? Should auction? Is it a viable auction strategy to refuse a bit

more for any player? I feel like I have a better chance of getting it right if I just agree with my co host who in front of me, because that's how it worked last week that week. I was not on the show last week. Yeah, okay, thanks um. On my Shock Fantasy Redraft cheat sheet, I only have thirteen running backs and five wide receivers that nineteen dollars

or more than a cap. So if you're fine with going into are with running backs like Jonathan Taylor, who I like, Chris Carson Levy on Bell Leonard Fournett, David Johnson, Todd Gurley as your top running back options. Then you're okay, But personally, I'm not okay with that. I want at least two the running backs that are over that threshold. I'm fine going with under ninetent at every other position, but not for running back. Oh, there's so many good

running backs. You guys are wrong. This is a perfect vival strategy. There are so many good running backs in that range. You identified some of them right there. I'm happy to go to war with those guys. I'll go to war with Rheem Mostert and James White and Leonard Fournette and of course to the opposite. Absolutely we can do that, and nineteen dollars goes a long way. At the other positions. At n I'm I'm looking at some good wide receivers. I'm looking at maybe a Chris Godwin

or an A J. Brown or a Kenny Golladay. At nine percent, I can get star players and all I have to do is have second or second and a half tier runners. That's an easy trade off to make. It's the deepest draft I've ever seen, and you could absolutely perform a successful auction strategy that refused a bid

more tough question Number two. If I told you a running back currently outside of the top ten by average draft position would finish number one in Fantasy points at his position, who would it be, Matt Well, you know, it's Austin Ekeler, who's currently the thirteenth running back off the board. And I gave you a bunch of stats about this over the last two weeks. But here's a couple of more that you might not have heard. Tyrod Taylor's career average depth of target is in the nines.

When he was in Buffalo, LA, Shawn McCoy was seventh in the league and running back receptions and sixteen he was injured for most. Outside of CMCs otherworldly receiving stats, Austin Ekeler had the second most targets in the league last season among running backs with a hundred and four, and Melvin Gordon had fifty two targets and those are vacated targets. Ekeler led the running backs in the league

in forty plus yard receptions with three. He trailed McCaffrey by only twelve receiving yards, and he topped CMCs touchdown total with eight receiving touchdowns to McCaffrey's four. His average depth of target, by the way, was one point to one. His average yards per catch was ten point eight. Let that sink in for a little bit. That's very impressive.

Austin Ekeler is your answer, Brian. If there's one running back currently outside of the top ten that's going to finish number one among all running backs, who is it? Ekeler certainly came to mind. Kenyan Drake was another guy. Josh Jacobs I like, but I'm just gonna go with Jonathan Taylor of the Colts, who who ranked uh seventh last year with a hundred and thirty three rushing yards per game with a very pedestrian Marlon Mack and then even Jonathan Williams late in the season. This is just

the ideal landing spot for Taylor. If Mac wasn't a thing, Taylor would be a first round pick right now. You might be going before c e H and uh. Really, Taylor is gonna push Mac out of the picture sooner than later. And the Colts running backs have the number one strength of schedule for fantasy football. I mean the two games against the Jaguars alone, Taylor is gonna finished like RB on those numbers. So I'm feeling shades of Marshall Falk as a rookie as a cult my first

year playing fantasy football. By the way, Marshall Falk is a rookie led me to a title, and that's what Jonathan Taylor is gonna do. The correct answer is Austin Neckler. Um Matt's already stolen so much thunder on Austin Neckler, not just this show, but also prior shows. But let me just remind people of his four games last year without Melvin Gordon. Week one one hundred sixty five yards,

three touchdowns, eighteen total touches. We two frost to Neckler last year one hundred twenty three yards, a touchdown, twenty three touches. Week four, his bad game is eighty yards, no touchdowns and only sixteen touches. And then in Week four, the last game without Melvin Gordon, one twenty two total yards, two touchdowns and twenty three combo touches. If that's week got anything like that coming for Austin Ekeler, he will be the top scoring running back outside of the top ten.

Tough question number three. If I told you a wide receiver currently outside of the top ten at his position would finish number one in fantasy points. It is this season? Who would it be? Brian Odell Beckham came to mind. Uh I said, there's a lot of competition for targets there um with Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and then the two elite running backs also Allan Robinson I like, but those quarterbacks in Chicago are absolute trash. So I'm not liking a rob I'm going deeper and Matt no one

can see him. We should take a picture. At least he's dressed like a blonde. Gardner minshore. I'll put the mustache onto alright, and Art can take I'll take a picture of this is this is thrilling radio of the mind. And Uh it's DJ. It's DJ Shark, who is going to be an absolute target. Hog could push two hundred targets if he stays healthy. And when he was healthy in weeks one through nine last season, he was wide

receiver three overall. And again love Gardner mintrew the the third rated UH passer on passes of twenty plus yards last season. He can play and Jacksonville, is this gonna be chasing points all day long? Gonna pass the ball seventy at the time. So I'm going deep. DJ char all right, d J Chark. That's it's a quality angle for a team that's gonna be playing from behind all the time. Matt. If I told you a wide receiver currently outside the top ten would finish number one in

Fantasy points at his position, who would it be? Well, Brian's not wrong, but he's a little wrong. Um, he's not wrong, He's just not right. It's A J. Brown, who uh currently the sixteenth wide receiver off the board. He finished eight in Fantasy points last year, and he only had eighty four targets. The players who finished better than him as a wide receiver last year averaged one hundred and thirty seven targets. So let's play the extrapolation game.

I feel like we need some like game show music here, like extrapolation game. Yeah, here it is WHOA at the time? Machines as close as I've got. So let's give A J. Brown a hundred and thirty seven targets. At last year's averages, he'd come up with eighty five receptions seventeen hundred yards and thirteen touchdowns seventeen hundred yards would be very good. Michael Thomas finished with a hundred and forty nine receptions,

seventy five yards and nine scores. So if you give A J. Brown the opportunity, he could definitely do it. So here's the thing that almost came out of my mouth. A J. Brown's no Michael Thomas, but you know what he might be might be Michael Thomas. I mean, you know he had an astounding rookie year. He might be Michael Thomas for all we know. But it's the wrong answer. You got the first one right, which is great. Cooper Cup, last year's wide receiver four, who for whatever reason, is

going off the board as wide receiver fifteen. I'm baffled by this. So here he is last year wide receiver for in a bad year for Jared Goff. He was second last year in touchdowns among wide receivers. He was number one last year in red zone targets. So clearly they trust him near the stripe. But as we just talked about for the prior to segments, we love the easy touchdowns near the goal line. That's re replicatable. On old of this. For Cooper Cup, last year was his

first year off a c L surgery. He's got room to be even better this year. Rams offensive lines improved Jared Off, who, to Matt's credit, he recognized a wobbly season as it was happening early in the year with Jared Goff. I think Golf without all the pressure of the new contract, has a better season, and Cooper cup could easily go from wide receiver four last year to wide receiver one this year. Or Goff's not good, I can't rule that out frankly at this point, but I

think he's gonna be all right. I think he's gonna be okay. If you're starting a franchise right now, do you want Jared Goff or Gardner Minshew? The fact that you have to pause is not a good side. If I if I have to work the contract in to mens you for sure, but at the same cost it would be it would be Jared Goff. How when we come back players whom we like, we like the player we hate the average draft position. These are players we

never end up drafting, but we still like them. Will identify one at every position and weekend Back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Ciargie and from Guillotine leagues dot Com, Brian Johnson Guillotine Leagues dot Com, and Matt Harrison tell people what's happening at chock Fantasy Shock Fantasy cheat sheets, visuals, dashboards, everything you need for your fantasy league and your draft coming up.

Uh twenty bucks for the full year if you use the promo code f f W. That stands for Fantasy Football Weekly and this is the last week for that promo code, so get in now, all right. These are players that we like, players we like, but players we never draft because we don't like the average draft position. So a little bit different than just wow, I never take that guy because he sucks. These are players who are good players, but just where they're going in drafts

means we're not biting there. Matt, I would like I would like you to begin, oh thank you. At the quarterback position, who is the quarterback that you like but hate the adp Kyler Murray in the sixth round. And you can really put a bunch of names in this category, like Dak Russell, Wilson, Shaun Watson, because this is more of a philosophy thing. If you don't get Mahomes or you don't get Lamar Jackson, in the early rounds, you

might as well wait. In ESPN scoring, Lamar Jackson scored almost eighty more points last year than the next quarterback, and Mahomes basically did the exact same thing in the prior year in both cases. After that, there's a large group of players in a really big tier together, so there's not much of a difference between number two and

number fifteen on your list. So Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen are all being drafted outside the top five quarterback acts and the top six rounds, but all have finished his top eight quarterbacks in just the last two years, so there's consistently really good quarterbacks to be had late. While Kyler Murray's trending up, he's not the runner that Lamar Jackson is and he never will be. And he's not the passer that Mahomes

is and he never will be. And if you're not exceptional one of those two, you're probably not gonna outscore the rest of the quarterbacks by eighty points. Brian, who is the quarterback you like but hate the A D p uh. Those that know me might be shocked here. I like Daniel Jones from a fantasy perspective right now going off the board at quarterback twelve. But the opening four weeks are just absolutely brutal, brutal, brutal for Daniel, so I do not want to draft him. I'll trade

for him later in the year. But he opens with Pittsburgh. We only allowed twenty three passing touchdowns last year. Six were in the first two games. That was before they acquired Minca Minca Fitzpatrick. And then they get the Bears only allowed seventeen passing touchdowns, then the forty Niners and the Rams Rams obviously acquired Jalen Ramsey uh midpoint of

last season. That's just just an awful off stretch and I want no part of Daniel Jones as my starting quarterback for those for us four weeks, so I will not draft him, but I will trade for him later. I've got the player I like but hate the average draft position at quarterback is Dak Prescott, who I like very much. He's my number three ranked quarterback. I like him.

They got weapons everywhere, including the new wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, breakout candidate tight end Blake Jarwin, and we talked about last week but he just to Matt's point, he doesn't have the Jackson Mahomes crazy upside, and I can get quarterbacks a lot like Dak Prescott a lot later like Matt Ryan, four rounds later. So I'm not taking Dak Prescott, even though I like him a lot. Matt. Let's go to the running back position. Who is the running back

you like but hate the average draft position? It's Cam Akers in the fifth round and last week, Uh, Malcolm Brown is my sleeper the week because two things. Basically, the Rams run a ton inside the red zone and a ton inside the infrared zone, and Todd Gurley vacated a ton of those touches. But Malcolm Brown is really good with the touches. He had again eight carries from inside the five with five scores. So you're trying to trust a rookie running back who's a good player, you

gotta take him in the fifth round. He's got a questionable goal line workload at best, and a backfield that is three or four deep. So I'm not taking Cam Akers at all. Alright, cam Akers, actually I like the player. I think it's just a bad landing spot for him right now. Okay, Brian who is the running back that you like but hate the average draft position. I really don't want to draft Nick Chubb this year, even though I love him as a player. Right now going around

eleventh overall as r B eight. I've already harped on the red zone inefficiency from last year. That should improve with an improved line and probably some bad luck for Chub last year. But I just cannot get past the fact that I think Kareem hunt is better than Nick Chubb.

Nick Chubb's elite, but Kareem Hunts just a little bit elite tour and uh, guys like going the same range, like Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Austin Ekeler, There's not that threat wooming behind of Kenyan Drake might have a sneaky threat. Chase Edmonds is a real threat. You're correct there, I retract that one. But that leads me into my guy. If I can transition to Kenyon Drake, who is the player I like but I hate his average draft position. He is going in the second round is running back

nine good player? But does anybody think Kenyan Drake is a great player filled with highlight reel game breaking ability. In the mid second round, I can get Lamar Jackson or Tyreek Hiller Austin Ekeler, who are just simply better explosive, highlights style players. And then the whole Chase Edmonds thing. It really worries me. Cliff. This week, head coach Cliff Kingsbury said he's got two starting caliber runners. I don't want to hear that from about my second round pick.

You kind of pooh pooed me last week on Chase Edmonds just a little bit. I think I was just in the mood to poop who you don't take. Okay, yeah, that was probably last week. Let's go to the wide receiver position, Matt who is the receiver you like but hate the average draft position. I'm staying with the same team. It's Robert Woods who you have to take in the fourth round. While the Rams passed at the seventh highest clip in the league last year, they were all very,

very short, very safe throws. Jared Goff's average depth of target was eight point zero yards last year. That was twenty six in the league, lower than Mason Rudolph, Mitch Truebisky, Jacoby Brissette, Kyle Allen, and David Bloch. What about I think Duck's right in there, just has to be right in there. I think Duck was, Yeah, probably right in

that range. Woods only scored three touchdowns last year, two through the air, one on the ground, so you'd think an uptick is do But the Rams don't throw deep and they don't throw the ball in the red zone. The Rams have been a top three team in red zone carries in each of Sean mcveigh's three seasons. Plus Robert Woods was targeted only nine times within the red zone, head only one target inside the five. Compare that to eighteen red zone targets for Cooper Cup and nineteen red

zone targets for Tyler Higbee. There's no way you can take Bob Woods in the fourth I didn't realize that Tyler Higbey had so many targets. He's here, all right, that's good to know. I'm kind of you kind of sold me on on Woods. I I just figured just through just your regression, he'll get back to seven eight touchdowns. But maybe you're right, But looking at how many touchdowns he's scoring in the past, like six is like the

high water mark. But that's that's your upside there, all right. Brian, who is the wide receiver you like but hate the average draft position. How can you not like DeAndre Hopkins but at wide receiver five going fourteenth overall, I hate the adp um Arizona wide receivers actually finished with the third most receptions as a whole last year, more than the Texans, So like, volume really isn't a concern there, and Hopkins isn't necessarily making the wide receiver room more crowded.

He's essentially replacing demure Bird, who's now a Patriot. But there's just so much more talent around DeAndre Hopkins now than when he was in Houston, outside of quarterback of course. Um but that doesn't help hopkins case here. He's getting down graded quarterback from Murray to Deshaun Watson, and now he has an elite ish running back and Kenyan Drake and maybe Chase Edmunds behind him. Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald will certainly command targets and oh yeah, dan Arnold.

That's why don't draft any Cardinals except for think Dan Arnold is going to factor in end zone targets. You're delirious. DeAndre Hopkins is sure to disappoint, even though he is an awesome, awesome, football player, but avoid him into fantasy all right. Uh my, My receiver that I like but hate. The average draft position is Carolina wide receiver d J. Moore. Currently going off the board is wide receiver ten. I'm

with you there. He is a good player with a lot of natural athletic ability who made a big jump forward last year despite the wobbly quarter backing of Kyle Allen. And I've heard this argument many times. If he can do with Kyle Allen, he can do with Teddy Bridgewater. But Kenny, and I'm really nervous about this Caroline offense, new coaches, new schemes, massive offensive line worries, and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm. We've repeatedly chronicled on this show.

Bridgewater's many limitations as a downfield passer. He is a dump off passer, averaging the second fewest completed air yards last year and the fewest intended air yards. His receivers have to turn and they have to turn short catches into long touchdowns. That's not easy to do. It's asking a lot, and I think there's severe touchdown downside to all of the Panthers receivers because of what Teddy Bridgewater brings to the table and you look back through Teddy's

box scores from when he started last season. The hundred seventy seventy yard game, the nine three yard game, the two hundred forty yard game, the one touch down to zero touchdowns. He's not an incapable quarterback, but he limits the upside of his receivers enough that I'm not paying third round value on d J. Moore. I'm with you. Let's go to the tight end position. Who is the tight end that that you like but hate the average draft position and thus never end up drafting bt Um.

I like Evan Ingram, I don't like him in the seventh round. Evan Ingram has all of the abilities, like the ability to get hurt in, the ability to wear sweatpants two games, the ability to watch from home and the sidelines. What's most concerning is that there are other weapons that are better than him in the red zone on his own team. Sterling Shepherd, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton all had better red zone numbers across the board, and each of them is really good at contested catches.

Not to say Ingram is bad, but there's competition. He gets hurt a Ton. The schedule is not good to open the season. I'll highlight that in a bit. Well, Brian just did yeah, but yeah no, Evan ingram Um Brian. The tight end that you like but hate the average draft position, and thus never end up ending up with like nay love. Of course I love Darren Waller, yes

you do. But right now at over pick sixty three overall at tight end five, I can't love Waller, who was tight end three in PPR leagues last year, led the Raiders with a hundred and seventeen targets, ninety catches and over eleven hundred yards. But remember Antonio Brown. Just remember Antonio Brown from last year. There were no wide receivers the Raiders, and now they have like eight, Yes, and Foster Moreau was already stealing red zone targets from Waller.

Now Jason Witten is in toe uh tight end is this way too deep to reach for Waller this soon in draft? I'm sorry to say it. He is my number fifteen wide received our tight end, so obviously I'm not taking anywhere near his right now. The tight end that I love but hate the average draft position is zach Ertz, Who's going at the end of the third round beginning of the fourth round. His tight end three

obviously an elite talent. And but if I'm spending an early round pick on tight end, it's not going to be the guy who's looking over his shoulder that I gotta worry about. George Kettle's one round more expensive and I get the focal point of an entire team's offense. Or alternately, I can wait one round and get Mark Andrews, who I like even better, and I've got rated one

spot higher than zach Ertz. The last two years, zach Ertz has been very productive, in part because all the wide receivers have been hurt and they are again, and now they put that first rounder into Jalen reagor the other four receivers are returning, including Alston Jeffrey. At some point, I just for where he's going. He's a great town, zach ERT's awesome, but where he's being taken, I'm not. I am not biting on zach Ertz. If you'd like to try a Guillotine league, we encourage you to do so.

You may know sixteen other people that want to play. You can go to Guillotine leagues dot com and join a private league and will run your league Guillotine League style. If you don't know sixteen other people and you want to just join a guillotine league, we have them for every price and prize point at guillotine leagues dot com. Again with the Guillotine League, seventeen teams start the season.

Every week, the low scoring team gets cut and the entire roster goes the waiver wire where you get to bid on some poor guys entire draft. Super fun Guillotine Leagues dot com. More. Fantasy Football Weekly coming up next and is the final segment of episode four, season twenty six of Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchion on Twitter at Paul Charchion, Brian Johnson on Twitter at b t x J like the annunciation, and Matt Harrison at Explosive Output

on Twitter. We encourage you to follow us. Can also follow guieting leagues at g L Chop g L Chop for your guilleteaing league needs via Twitter as well. This final segment. We always release our sleepers near the end of the show. I have challenged Matt Harrison to provide us with data on the first month's schedule. Now Matt

and as listeners. Regular listeners know I care so much more about the first month of the schedule than any other month because I want to get out to the fast start, because even if it's turns out, it's only for the month of September and my players are gonna peter he out eventually. I want to know I've got that option, I've got trade value because my players came out hot and I can trade away the guys that

have performed. I want to start the season three and one, four and one, five and oh four and O. I want to start the season well, and that means I've asked you to help me with which teams have got the easy and hard starts to the season, both through the running game and the passing game. So the first thing I did is I use both the Football Outsiders d v o A and Fantasy Stats against the position to kind of tabulate a more accurate defensive profile of

these defenses. Thank god, you fantabulated. Absolutely not in front of the kids, I hope, Nope, No, never in front of the kids. Then I made some really pretty spreadsheets with color coded stuff on all of them, and they're gonna be available at Chuck Fantasy promo code f f W gets you the year for twenty bucks. And um, I started with the quarterback and wide receiver and they

kind of came out very similar this year. Um So I just grouped them all together and let's start with three easy starts and then I'll give you three tough starts. Easy start number one the Jacksonville Jaguars Gardner, Minshew, DJ Shark, d D Westbrook, Leavisca Channelt. Here's what they get Indie, Tennessee, Miami, Cincinnati, and Houston in the first five weeks. Every one of those defenses ranked in the bottom ten according to my metrics.

Then they get Detroit in week six, who is also bottom ten, then a bye, and then their schedule gets absolutely insane. So if you can go roll with the Jaguars for the first six weeks, you're gonna look like a genius. Then trade them all well and I need I I will do that. Yeah, to me, that is a totally viable strategy. Can I interject real quick? You should call your metrics your matrics, thank you? Uh second team, You're ready ready for some ready some horn noises because

it's Chicago horn. Nick Foles and Sad trombone. Ski, you know what trombone is a horn? Right? Well, oh that kind of horn. Yeah, cow Bell is not a horn charger. I was just looking for a car horn. I have a car horn here. So Nick Foles, Sad Drombone, Ski, Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller. They get Detroit, the Giants, Atlanta, Indie, and Tampa. All except Tampa ranked in the bottom ten. Tampa was just outside of that. Overall, the Bears have the easiest schedule on the season for passing in the

league this year. It's once you get the full season in, it's not that big of a variance. They all kind of get close to average, but they have by the Matt tricks, they have the easiest get all right, and the third team with the easiest start for passers, uh, San Francisco. That's Jimmy g Brandon, Aiyuk, maybe Kendrick Borne, a guy like maybe Deebo Samuel if he can make it back um Arizona, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, Philly and Miami. So those are some bad secondaries.

Last yeah, so Zona. The Giants in Miami were the bottom three teams in the league, followed by you know, you got the other two teams in there that we're at blow average. This doesn't include the tight end position specifically, but George Kittle is going to have a few huge games in here too, because Arizona is in Week one. I've got I've got a strong take, and I firmly believe George Kittle is gonna finish as a top five

wide receiver based on his PPR points. I'm I would take him over DeAndre hop anyone other than Davante Adams or Michael Thomas. I'd rather of George Kittle. I think. All right, let's go over to the tough starts, and the toughest start of the season goes to the New York Football Giants, including Danny Dimes, Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton,

and Golden Tate. Brian talked about it a little bit before. Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, l A, Rams, Dallas are the first five games, although Dallas is secondary is gonna take a big step backwards this year, right they may? Yeah, the first three weeks are against top six past defenses, then Week four against Jalen Ramsey. Their schedule does loosen up after that. But if you're investing in the Giants passing game. Wait until after week five. Okay, don't forget about Aaron don

Old either, he might be Uh. The Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs, Tyrelle Williams, Hunter, Renfroll, Brian Edwards, UM Carolina, going New Orleans, New England, Buffalo, Kansas City are their first five weeks, and outside of that game against Carolina in Week one, that's a scary lineup in his team. Weeks three through five are against top ten

past defenses. And notice I mentioned four wide receivers. This is a great opportunity for you to sit back watch the Raiders group, see who gets the snaps, see who gets the targets, and then invest after week five when their schedule gets a little bit easier. Uh. Their stretcher run by the Way, is very nice the Raiders, so keep an eye on them in the second half of the season. Finally, Houston Deshaun Watson, Brandon Cooks, will Fuller, Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills. They get Listen to this

schedule Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Jacksonville to start off. Now, Jacksonville's not that Jacksonville is really bad and Minnesota secondaries without their number one, number two, and number three cornerbacks from last year. So Mike Zimmer said, I'd never have a bad defense, and he's right. He's pretty much right

for top ten defenses to start the year. After that stretch, the Texans only have three stoppers the rest of the way on their schedule, with nine very positive matchups from Week five on. Alright, So that's your passing game all wrapped up in a nutshell, all right. So those are the three easy and the three hardest starts for passing game. Let's go to the running game. Who are the three easiest running game starts to the season. We alluded to this a little bit earlier, and and and Brian kind

of nailed it here. Um, Baltimore and that's mark Ingram and JK. Dobbins. They get Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Washington, and Cincinnati, all of those teams ranked in the bottom ten in Fantasy rush defense last year, yes, even Kansas City. After that, they see a very tough stretch with four top five rush defenses in their next seven games. So they're gonna have a great start. But then it gets Rocky uh New England is the second team. That's James White,

Sony Michelle, Lamar Miller, Damien Harris. They get Miami, Seattle, Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Denver Kansas City and the Raiders, by the way, both top or sorry, both bottom ten in the league and pass receptions allowed to running backs, so keep an eye on James White right there. And Miami gave up the third most yards to running backs

last year, while Seattle gave up the second most rushing tds. Finally, the last easy start is Atlanta Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, Cadrey Allison maybe or some combination of all of them. Very frustrating. They get Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay Carolina. Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay were middle of the road against the run. However, Carol Line was the worst run defense in the league by a wide margin last year. You can stream against the Panthers all year long, especially on

a defense that lost Luke Keikley. So they're gonna be really bad against the run again this year. All right, let's go to the tough starts on the running back side. First one Denver, Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay they get Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Tampa, New York Jets, and New England in the first five weeks. The Titans are their first week they were middle of the pack, but the other four teams were elite top

six against the run. So invest in the Broncos backs for your playoff schedule where they get Carolina, Buffalo and the Chargers. That's a lot better. Uh. The New York Giants a tough start, Hey Kwon Barkley, I'm giving you guys negative stuff on s Kwon um and and of course goal line specialist Wayne Gallman. Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, the Rams and Dallas. Those are tough teams. Steelers, Rams, Niners are all top ten against the run. Chicago and

Dallas are better than average. All of Sa Kwan's easy weeks coming crunch time, though, he might win you a lot of leagues this year, starting in Week twelve against since Seattle, Arizona, and Cleveland. But Baltimore in the championship week for Kwan, that's messy. That could be tricky, although Baltimore Baltimore may have salted away home field by Week sixteen. I think if there's one team that's going to run away in the cities. Right there, there's a team that's

going to run away with it. I think it's Baltimore. Okay, you should send out calendar invites like week after Week five trademark ingram. Maybe I'll put that in the Shock Fantasy Slack channel, put reminders time to trade for X. All right. I think there's one one more a tough start, and that is and this one. I love this one. I'm just relishing right here, the Green Bay Packers Aaron Jones, A J. Dillon, Jamal Williams. Here's what they get to

start the year. Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta bye week. That didn't sound all that hard. Vikings defensive line has been ravaged with a variety off season losses. Saints and Falcons were top ten against the run last year. This plays perfectly into our anti Aaron Jones narrative. The week five by fits in with A. J. Dillon maybe getting a look at more touches after that and getting worked into the offense more and more. But they do have Tampa in Week six, and Tampa was the top run

defense last year, so they're bad through Week six. Well done, Matt, I challenge you to come up with all this data the first month scheduled, easy, the hard, and well well done. Thank you for grinding all of that data. Let's go to our sleepers. At the end of every show we release our sleepers. We begin with Brian Johnson, who have you got this week? Kind of on when you start with I have some enthusiasm for your sleeper, I'm going to I'm getting there. But Corey Davis, well that that

is requisite of that reaction. In case you've forgotten, I forgot the NZ double as career receiving leader going into the final year of his rookie contract. Were Western Michigan Western Michigan? Were we still playing Western Michigan? Thanks for throwing that in there, And uh, you know, reigning on my parade. Uh, injured last year to injury fully healthy now off the pub list And and really here's my argument, see DeVante Parker post hype sleeper paid off last year.

If anyone's gonna do it, it's six foot three Corey Davis, blue chip prospect. We'll have the best quarterback when he's been healthy in his career. She said, yeah, Bryan Tann health for twelve of the you know whatever, twelve fourteen games last year, and he was pretty much thrust into an alpha dog role as a rookie. But now he's at a J Brown John hu Smith to take off

and of was Derrick Henry to keep defenses honest. So Corey Davis, you basically get him the last pick these days could pay off as a wide receiver to wide receiver. Three uh certain points. Corey Davis going after board. His player number two in draft um my sleeper is Paris Campbell, second year wide receiver from Indianapolis. I was really optimistic about Paris Campbell last year as a rookie, but he suffered a horrific hand injury, just brutal that cost him

much of the season. I want to remind people at the Combine last year, I guess that would have been Combine he was a nine percentile Spark player. Four I believe percentile Spark player at the Combine. He is a Percy Harvin type receiver who is incredibly fast. He ran a four three forty at the Combine. But he's also strong and powerful and you do a lot of the catch. Here is head coach Frank Wright on Paris Campbell last week. Do your I don't know his voice and just did happen?

It happens to be a lot like mine occgtionally very similar. He looks strong, fast, explosive, with good hands, and understands the offense. And he's very consistent. Oh that sounded just like Frank Raig. Notably, I fool his wife on a

regular basis. With that reminder, you know, Paris Campbell is a second rounder last year, so they've got high draft pick equity in him, and currently he's the number two target behind only t Y Hilton, and on that offense, I like Paris Campbell currently going off the board in round seventeen of Fantasy Drafts Undrafted. Now, Brian and I are both in a we are in a slow auction right now, and Brian has got the high bid on Paris Campbell and two dollars bawling. Should I bid up? Absolutely?

He feels like he should be worth at least three? Right? Shut up, Matt? What do you think, Matt? I think at least put put in the bid of five on the slow auction. I don't take Brian out for sure. I I acquired Nick Chubb in that auction. The guy. Hey, while you're making bids, why don't I give you my yes, my sleeper, Nicole Hardman of the Chiefs. It was only a year ago that Hardman was looking like the guy who had just slot into that offense to replace Tyreek Hill.

They're similarly built for speed receivers. Hill had the fastest clock time in the NFL last year at twenty two point eight miles per hour when he chased down Damien Williams on a touchdown run. Well, Hartman had the fastest speed on a scoring play last year at twenty one point seven miles per hour. Hardman tied for the league lead in twenty five plus yard touchdown receptions last year with five. And he's entering year two in a Patrick Mahomes offense and you don't have to draft him till

round nine. And he finished as the forty nine wide receiver in Fantasy last year, but he only had twenty six receptions. If you double that this year and give him fifty two, which is about what Sammy Watkins had, he'll easily go over a thousand yards and probably improve on sick touchdowns that he had last year. Yeah, it's all about consistency and targets for Nicole Hardman, you know, if they give him the targets, he has game breaking ability on almost every play. The problem was they just

didn't target him last year. I think twenty three targets on the season. That's it. Well, receptions I hope he had all right, thank you very much. Uh, if you missed a part of the show, check of the podcast one target. That's hard to do. Try all the podcast Fantasy Football Weekly. UM, you can get back and hear all of the various segments, including are very valuable inside the five two segments that we had earlier in this show.

We highly recommend you do that and also to check out my cheat sheet available for free at Guillotine leagues dot com. We'll be back next week for more Fantasy Football Weekly. Don't. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.