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Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now here's your host, Paul Charchion.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a super Bowl edition. It's the last chance we're gonna have to break down games for like six months. That's crazy more. Yeah, well yeah, about six months, seven months, something like that. My co host today, Brian Johnson, been all a while, Welcome back.
Hey, charge, how's it going. Yeah, it's uh, it feels like a super Bowl that should have been played weeks ago, right, Yeah. I think it's because the offseason content is just over the years. It's just like the season never ends. In the past, there's there's been an end, but there's no end. Yeah, crazy football nowadays.
So it's uh, they got it all figured out.
They do. Let's put a bow on this this season for sure, though.
Yeah, it's I'll be honest, it's not the super Bowl I wanted, it's not the teams I wanted. And it's not to say that I have a problem with either teams. I don't, but I just think the league is healthy year when Patrick Mahomes is not in every Super Bowl, when there's a little more drama involved, and I was rooting for a I was rooting for the Lions to get in, but no such luck. We've got We've got a rematch from our twenty nineteen Super Bowl. Jimmy Garoppolo
will not be overthrowing anybody in this game. Let's break it down Fantasy Football Weekly Style, Brian. The Chiefs come into this game with an offense that had sputtered through most of November and December, and really in totality, the offense hasn't even looked great in the in the postseason, but the defense has been great. So let's talk through the Chiefs side of us.
Let's start there, all right, per usual, I like to start with the running backs, and we'll obviously get into Christian McCaffrey later, but that just feels like a game where we're focused on the running backs more than the passing game.
I'm gonna be three that tip my hand on this.
Yes, yeah, especially on the forty nine ers side. But we're talking the Chiefs now, of course, so I'm gonna start with a B grade for Isaiah Pachecko has played over seventy percent of the snaps in the playoffs, averaging twenty three touches. We love that, Yep, that's great, but only ninety four combo yards so far. Pachecko is averaging the season in the playoffs, but they've been tough matchups,
and most recently with the Bills and the Ravens. Of course, the forty nine Ers, believe it or not, could be a bit of a reprieve for Pachecko since Week fifteen, San Francisco allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game, the fourth highest explosive run rate, the third highest yards after contact per attempt. So it's a pretty nice matchup
for Pacheco. And in the NFC Championship game against the forty nine ers Jamior Gibbs David Montgomery, they combined for one hundred and thirty eight rushing and two touchdowns on the ground. Yeah, also combined for five catches for what it's worth, and it's certainly worth something when you're only comparing two teams. On two teams, I think there's back to the divisional round.
Sorry, go ahead, there's I think there's an opportunity here for Pachecko through the air he can catch, and I think they may have to find some creative ways to get the ball in his hands. And I can see a scenario where Pachecko gets three, four or five receptions in this game. Maybe Clyde Edwards a Laird, yeah, you know, knocks in one as well.
Certainly worth mentioning. Jerick McKinnon was rumored to maybe come back with the Super Bowl, but that seems very very unlikely at this point. There'll be no Jared McKinnon. Just furthermore on Pochecko. Why it's a great matchup going back to the Green Bay game in the Divisional round against the forty nine ers Aaron Jones and Emmanuel Wilson for those who recall him being the backup one hundred and twenty four rushing yards on twenty two carries. So a
great matchup for Pachecko. He gets a B for me, and like I just said, McKinnon on the bench or he's he's not gonna play, most likely, But I got Clyde Edwards letter on the bench just playing twenty five percent of the snaps, averaging just under five touches per game. I mean, he's like a DFS start if you want to throw one to be contrarian or like in any time touchdown type just dart throw.
Yeah.
I don't know what his rushing prop is. We're not going to go into props too much because this is still a fantasy show, not a gambling show. So h on the bench Travis Kelsey, though not on the bench locker there, right, Yeah, a grade for Kelsey. It's crazy to think we were all calling him washed at the end of the preseason, right charge, like pack it.
Out at the end of the preseason or the regular the.
Regular season, Okay, that's how long. That's how long the season.
Well, I wouldn't say washed. We just all felt I think we felt like he was he was, you know, on the wrong side of his career. I don't think anybody was saying like Travis Kelson needs to retire.
We didn't say he needs to be need to retire. But it was bad. But the playoffs have been great, starting with Miami ten targets, seven catches, seventy one yards against Buffalo, five catches seventy five yards, two touchdowns against Baltimore two weeks ago. Eleven targets, eleven catches, one hundred and sixteen in a touchdown. He also averaged five yards per carrying that game against the Ravens. Okay, yeah, I've
got rush, so we'll throw that in there. And I'm not going to mention any of the off the field stuff with with Travis Kelsey.
Yeah, but can if you're so inclined to believe that the fix is in on this whole thing, take the Travis kelce over everything, right, I mean, you know, then you know, if you think that there's gonna be an emphasis, he'll he'll We'll see what eight Travis Kelcey commercials on Sunday. So you know the likelihood of you know, there are gonna be some if you believe that the whole thing's for ragged or whatever, then Kelsey sitting down a gigantic game.
They're gonna want that to tie into their their promotional plans.
He just seems like the most unfadable. I'm speaking from a DFS perspective right now. When it becomes you know, like when when you when you're fading a player, it's like a highly owned player. And seems that's what Christian McCaffrey's a Travis Kelsey's. He seems like the most unfadable player to me though, to gain like you cannot fade
Kelsey in this game. Sam Laporta nine catches for ninety seven yards against the forty nine ers and NFC Championship game on thirteen targets, and the porta was not one hundred percent. I mean, I don't know. We don't have to get into Travis Kelty two more. The the angle is if you're rolling over unders on minimal yardage or a cheap DFS option is Noah Gray?
Yeah?
And a great a great matchup, I think, George, I heard you had some interesting things to say.
About I do.
Let me give you let me give you some mill on the spot.
Oh, I've got it all right. Here might know a great data for you right here. Of the final five weeks of the regular season, San Francisco ranked dead last in tight end yards allowed.
How about that?
I mean, we think of this great defense you mentioned one game ago, Detroit's tight ends piled up one hundred and five combined yards. And here's the really weird part for Noah Gray and why he could have a be a factor in this game. San Francisco weirdly gives up, over gives up, gives up big games to backup tight ends. And if you want to go back, going all the way back to week eleven, here are guys that put
up at least double digit yards. Payne, Durham, will Disley, Colby Parkinson, Elijah Higgins, Jeff Swain, Charlie Kohler, Bryce and Hopkins in the playoffs, a hobbled Luke m musk Grave and then last week Anthony Firkster nearly went double digits. He got eight yards. Noah Gray's betting line is like eleven yards. That feels extremely comfortable here. He runs eighteen routes per game. He averages ten yards per catch anytime touchdown,
by the way, plus nine to fifty. Again not a betting show, but yeah, I like I like Noah Grady get'll be a small factor in this game that you know, not somebody you necessarily want to have to count on from a fantasy standpoint. But I think he I think he gets a little something done here.
I love it. I was like, you got a nugget, right, you had Like that was like a twelve piece of nugget. Maybe wants some the Polynesian saw some chicken. I like it. Yeah, yeah, great matchup for both tight ends. We had no great sneaky play prop wise DFS wise. Not so sneaky as Rashi Rice, who has broke out in the playoffs on everyone's radar. Give him a B grade, but popped up on the injury report on Thursday with injured ankles emphasis
on the l ye not just one ankle. But hopefully it wasn't like a stepping out of the shower wrong type incident. I don't know, but he should be good to go on Sunday, hopefully, So a B for a right for Rashi Rice. In the playoffs, the forty nine ers have utilized too high safety coverage on sixty plus percent of their snaps since Week twelve. Against too high Rice has lived the team in target share percentage. So Rice has been on the heater. He gotta love him
in this one. And really the only other wide receiver I like for the Chiefs is I don't want to say like, but he's playable as Marcus valduzs Scantlet and you know, really people were calling for his head in the in the middle of the in the season, but he's shown up in the playoffs and again against on this too high coverage that the forty nine ers run the majority of the time, MVS leads the Chiefs in air yard share percentage and at his price in daily
and whatever is over under is is anytime touchdown odds are gonna be in your favor. He just needs that one play to pay off. It's not gonna cost you a lot in any format. So I'll give MBS the TA com grade if you must. He gets the very soft seakay for me, and.
That's It feels like, if there's ever a spot for Marquez Valdez scant Link to really disappoint, it's a super Bowl. You know, all the history of the epic drops that he's had throughout his career. It just feels like it's the perfect stage for Marquez Valdez Scantling to just disappoint on the grandest possible scale.
Let's ride the positive narrative though the last two games, the last in their playoff games. Of course, he's been clutched and you're like, I cannot believe MDS is showing up, So why not? Why not the complete the epic turnaround?
All right?
For MVS. I want to put this out there just really quick. I said MBS was the last wide receiver I quote unquote liked for the Chiefs. But if you're the Daily the Daily Player playing Showdown, Richie James is option. They're cheap. If you we're gonna get into the forty nine er side of things with you. I know, on offense, you have to like the Chiefs defense. When between the two defenses in this game, Richie James is intriguing where he runs enough routes, sees enough targets three to four
per game, but he also returns kicks. He plays special teams for the for the Chiefs. So if you're gonna roll the show Down and you like the Chiefs defense, you might just well throw a Richie James out there. Because he returns to the kick for a touchdown, whether it be a punt return or a kick return, you double up on the points with the Chiefs defense. So I'm just gonna throw it out there, and I don't want to get into Patrick Mahomes a whole lot. Just one thing to say. He has last thrown for more
than two touchdowns in Week seven. Patrick Mahomes.
Yeah, that's amazing, isn't it Wow.
Yeah, I remember twelve games ago.
Yeah, I remember he's top.
Two hundred and eighty yards passing only twice. That's all I say. He used to go to eighty and three every game. It's uh, so the ceiling is capped for Mahomes. I like the Chiefs to win. I'm gonna I'm gonna end there and LEGITD.
But what's the letter great on Mahars.
I'll give him a bee just because he's not an a. He's you know, he hasn't put up a eight numbers basically all year fantasy wise, which is somewhat explainable, but uh, you can't put it past them. But just from a on paper, he's a bet.
I can recall at the end of the Fantasy Football Weekly, you know, like week sixteen, Week seventeen, we were talking about how many quarterbacks had had a three touchdown game since Patrick Mahomes had had a three touchdown game, and we were into like the thirties and forties of three touchdown games before Patrick Mahomes. That one need stells An had one, which is amazing. Let's go to the San
Francisco side. Lots of rushing coming. We already alluded to this Brian Christian McCaffrey sitting up potentially a very big game here. The way to beat the Chiefs is on the ground, as reverse exemplified by Todd Munkins moronic scheme in that last game, only giving his runner six carries and then he scored ten points. And if you go back to the wild card round, Rahie Morris, lead back for the Dolphins, got eight carries and Miami scored seven points.
So maybe you want to score more than seven or ten points, so you gotta run the ball, and you got Christian McCaffrey. Then I just think in totality, if you're Kyle Shanahan trying to avoid going zero to two in Super Bowls, aren't you gonna put your more faith into Christian McCaffrey than you are brock Purty.
Yeah, like so much faith into CMC where I would almost let him play quarterback over Rocks, right, And I don't direct snap. That was either a handoff to McCaffrey or a direct snap to McCaffrey. And yeah, like.
Yes, I just I just see a very And it's not we don't hate on brock Purty here. It's that, isn't it. You're and you're gonna hear me say some reasonably nice things about him in a minute. But the game plan here goes through Christian McCaffrey. In Chief losses, teams average twenty three carries and almost five full yards
per carry. So again, I just I feel like, you know, if you're going to try to put the Chiefs on a loss, you gotta give somebody plenty of carries, and it's gonna be Christian McCaffrey.
You know.
I don't think they're gonna fool round with any of the backup running backs and any meaningful numbers here and the five times that an opposing runners hit at least nineteen carries, the Chiefs only won two of those five games. They lost three Niners finished number one in run blocking by Pro Football Focus, Chiefs were dead last and run stuff win rate. And CMC probably helps you through the air too. Nine of the ten past Chiefs opponents have
had a runner top twenty receiving yards. So McCaffrey's going to be a huge part of this game in my opinion, and an absolute eight grade, which you would have guessed anyway. Now, if I like McCaffrey that much, that's and I keep telling you running game, running game, running game. That means I've just got C grades on Brock Purty, Deebo Samuel George Kittle. For those guys, I think there's a reason for concern. Let's uh, let's start with the party side.
Kansas City's pass defense is awesome, Brian. They've allowed over the past twelve games. Here's the touchdowns passing touchdowns Kansas City is allowed over the last twelve games. One one one zero one zero one one three one zero one. Sounds like I'm just talking binary. No, that's passing touchdowns allowed over the past twelve games. It's just you get zero one almost every game. The average passing yards against Kansas City over the past eleven games just one hundred ninety two yards.
That's it.
They rank third best in yards per completion, so you don't even get long passes completed, you get it's just short stuff. And Kansas City's number two in pressures and pressure rate, So that suggests that Perty's not gonna be able to set up long downfield passages. You're gonna have to get rid of the ball quickly. So I don't like, I don't think Perty's gonna get a ton done here. I'm not talking about a total raveling where Perty's gonna cost his team the game, but I don't love that
now where he could be helpful as a runner. Kansas City struggled against mobile quarterbacks lately, allowing five straight quarterbacks to run for twenty five or more yards, and the Chiefs ranked dead last in quarterback rushing attempts against them and twenty fourth in quarterback rushing yards allowed twenty per game. So I think Purdy is is gonna do a little bit with his feet, not enough you can count on that. And we've only got the C grade on party. Hero
is sitting on maybe like a one touchdown game. Let's go to Brandon Ay. Yeah yeah, go ahead.
Real quick to Purdy on the ground. Of course, Perty is ne Lamar Jackson. No one is a Lamar Jackson. But there were multiple times in the AFC Championship game where it was evident Lamar Jackson had like fifteen yards of green space in front of him if he didn't take advantage of it. So if they were yielding that kind of real estate to Lamar Jackson, just think of the the uh they're gonna be dropping back there. They're gonna be begging Perdy to run in this game. So
I love that angle. I'm in full agreement there. I love the over on perties anything pertty rushing rushing yardsal factor on the ground for.
Sure, He's got better wheels than I think people realize. Oh yeah, Brandon Ayuk's got a fascinating matchup against Lagerius Snead, who might be the hottest cornerback in football. Sneed's gonna follow him around the field almost certainly is gonna be is going to be getting shadow coverage on Ayuk. Snead's average game allowed in his coverage is two and a
half catches for twenty eight yards. That's it. And if they try to break Ayuk away from Snead by putting Ayuk in the slot and he does run from the slot, s then he's gonna face first rounder Trent McDuffie, who also gives up just twenty eight yards in his coverage. So you don't have you don't really have anywhere to bring Ayuk to put him on a big game. There's
nowhere to find easy coverage against Ayuk. The Chiefs finished the regular season third best in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, fourth best in yards allowed to receivers, and in the playoffs, listen to these subdued numbers that the Chiefs gave have given up to good receivers like Brandon Ayuck Tyreek Hill sixty two yards, that's it, Jalen Wattle thirty one yards. Even worse then, they've placed played Buffalo Stefan Diggs twenty
one yards. Then against Baltimore they gave up a fifty four yard bomb to Zay Flowers but otherwise held them to sixty yards. So there's I just think Gyu's sitting on a really, really tough matchup here, Brian, what do you think?
What I'm thinking right now is how much more fun were the Chiefs when they had an awful secondary shootout right and then Mahomes had to come out and chase the I don't like the Chiefs with Lagarious Steed and it's not fun anymore. They're not a fun team. But yeah, no, this, I mean, you're harping on it and there's no looking past it. This game is gonna run through the ground for San Francisco. It's a brutal matchup.
It is through the air. So let's start. Let's tuck Deebo Samuel for a second here, he he's this is this is really intriguing. So he runs from the slot most often, but not always by any stretch. He still runs outside plenty. He's got a in the slot. He's got this tough matchup with Trent McDuffie, who I mentioned just twenty eight yards per game allowed in his coverage and Deebo Samuel. Really five of his last six games
have been pretty darn quiet in terms of yardage. Anyway, he can find his way into the end zone, which we love. Tough matchup with McDuffie, and again like him if they if they break him outside, then he'd get Charvarius Award, which is a oh no, I'm sorry. Charvaria's award is on his own When is on his own team, he'll get Williams. And that would be an easier matchup for Samuel because he'll avoid Snead and all probability if he goes outside, and Ayuk is outside as well, so
there might be some opportunities there. I don't love him here, but you know where I do really like him is on the ground. Kansas City saw the fifth most wide receiver rushing attempts in the regular season and in the postseason. Jalen Waddles run against him. Stefan Diggs has been run against them. Say Flowers got carries against him. And obviously Samuel's a really good runner, averaging five point eight yards per carry. I mean there's a running back numbers three
point four yards after contact. So I've got a B grade on Deebo Samuel. If you can roll together the rushing and the receiving, he's got an easier pathway to a big game than Ayuk does, and so he might be able to get a little something done there. What do you think about Debo?
Well, when it comes to a rushing wide receiver, is Debo the greatest ever?
Yeah? I mean probably yes, Yeah, I mean Cordero Patterson.
Why am I banking at corridor Old Patterson? And why am I blanking? I'm Jerscy Harvink. Yes, Percy Harvin of course is in that converss. That's what I was thinking of. But yeah, yeah, the stars are aligned for Deebos. Deebos. I mean it's all there on paper. We can't fault if it doesn't happen, But on paper it's screaming, yes, this will happen. For Deebo on the ground.
Stock George Kittle. For a second, Chiefs have been a good tight end defense. No opposing tight end all year has topped eighty three yards and only two top fifty eight yards. So you know, nobody's had like the colossal game against the Chiefs. And in the playoffs listen to this, Isaiah likely Brian sixteen yards, then Dalton Kincaid forty five yards, and against Miami, which they don't really even use the
tight end to your guy durham smythe twelve yards. No tight end has scored a touchdown against Kansas City in six straight games. And you know Kittle where his big games become pretty reliable is when Deebo Samuel's not on the field, but Deebo's on the field, and you know when Deebo's lining up on the slot, he's also catching balls over the middle of the field. That's Kittle territory.
So there's a little bit of cannibalization there. This year, in games with Deebo Samuel, Kittle's averages drop almost twenty yards down to fifty nine yards per game and a very disappointing zero point three touchdowns per game. In Deebo Samuel games Kittle without Deebo Samuel Kittles is Kittle is almost at a full touchdown per game, and it drops all the way down to zero point three with Kittle. So I've only got the C grade on George Kittle. I'm not expecting a lot from him.
Brian, Yeah, this feels like a well first off, this feels like a Fantasy Football Weekly episode, right, cannot take not not take a jab to the face for a tight end take that I've had in the past. I always get one of those thrown at me from you and Matt, of course, But yeah, this feels like a This feels like more of a Kittle Kittle will shine and is all around football game, not his fantasy his fantasy output per se. Because I yeah, again on paper,
not a great a great matchup for Kittle. I'm with you there.
Yeah, that's it's gonna be a tough one. I see the under. It's I think the under over unders like forty eight points. I think the under keep talking about how good these defenses can be, and especially the Chiefs. How about and I think the Chiefs win. What do you got?
Yeah, I'm still shocked that the you know, the line opened as Kansas City as a you know, right after the Conference championships ended at two and a half points in favor of the Niners, and I was like, and I quickly moved to one. You know, the forty nine is being a one point favorite. I was expecting it to move in favor of the Chiefs too right now, especially from what I've read, all the action is on Kansas City because it's like, I can't bet against Mahomes.
But you know what, you couldn't bet against Tom brid in two thousand and eight against the Giants or Tom Brady again. You never know? But uh but no, clearly, I don't know. You look at this game as a whole, it's screams Chiefs, but uh but who knows, we'll see. I mean, what's I think it's really the long shot MVP Super Bowl MVP odds. So if I'm on the chief still my long odds, I'm going back to Richie James Jeez to win MVP. Here's what he means for it to happen. He needs to catch touchdown and he
needs to return one on special teams. That's all it's gonna take.
That mean, it's got to be like plus three thousand plus four thousand.
Oh yeah, he's got to be one of the longest odds on the team. But if it's he has somewhat of a path to it through that, Through that, he's got to catch one and he's got to run one back on special teams. It's uh, it's plausible.
If you nail. If you nail this Richie Richie James thing, it's gonna go down as one of the great calls in Brian Johnson history. I mean, this is that that.
Would be I'll get a back that if a back tattoo. If Ritchie James wins Super Bowl MVP, I gotta I can put money on it. Now. Well, I can say on WAX, I do have the Richie James Kansas City Defense the FS combo, as I mentioned earlier, I am riding that hard.
No, it's because you get double points, right exactly.
Yeah, and the cheap and low owned and all that.
Yeah, all right to me. I don't know why it's I guess I understand why you're doing Ritchie James as opposed to say Justin Watson or somebody like that. But I don't know that's that's too rich for my blood. But I hear what you're saying, kind of sort of, all.
Right, well, you gotta throw a long shot m VP out there, doesn't have to be a long shot. I'm gonna look up, I'm gonna look at the odds.
Yeah, you know, I don't know. That's not something I was necessarily sitting on, Like, who's my long shot super Bowl MVP? But let me pull up some odds right here. M hm hm, Well, a defensive player could win MVP, which would automatically make it a long shot, right, that would be pretty interesting, Like, I don't know, Lagerious Snead has two interceptions. That's possible if you get the brock pretty meltdown. Lagerious Sneid is one hundred and fifty to one to win, So that might be that might be
my angle. If I had to pick a somebody at deep at deep odds, that might be my guy. Let's find uh, let's find where yours is. Richie James is five hundred to one to win MVP.
Holy cow, James.
Yeah, you've always been more of a believer in Richie James than I'm been. But we'll credit you for consistency.
Five bucks can't even get you a happy meal these days, so you might as well throw it down.
No. Yeah, by the way, can't even get you the hamburger out of the happy meal. No, it's ridiculous. How much just the basic McDonald's hamburger goes for now? Is it's like three in a quarter? Ridiculous times it changed? Yeah, unreal.
We won't be we won't be eating hamburg or McDonald's on Super Bowl Sunday. Celebrate Orge, I miss you. Yeah, it's good watch the game together.
It's a little sad. We're my normal super Bowl party has been canceled because we uh we uh we have an issue with our kitchen and our uh leaking uh our leaking refrigerator. So yeah, kitchens, all of them.
Not resolved.
Yeah, not quite.
It's too hot in Minnesota this winter, right.
It is too out here. It is no snow on the ground in February. It's very weird. All right, thank you, my man. That's fun. We'll be back next week with our first true offseason Fantasy Football weekly, either next week or the week after. I want to talk about do the opposite data just you know, for those that you know, was this a year, it was this last year? Or goodyear? To do the opposite, was it not. We talked a lot about how people weren't drafting running backs as much.
Did that end up paying off or was that ultimately a mistake. I think that's gonna come up either next week or the week after that.
Looking forward to it, I'm all, I think there's some serious tight end talk to have this year too, in the first couple of rounds. Yeah, it really doesn't even involve Travis Kelcey as of yet. He can if he doesn't retire, he can he can You think.
Her retires by the way.
I don't know. I mean, winning the Super Bowl just pop up Vegas, wedding on the field, wh not. Let's go out and a blaze the glory.
But we'll see what about this? Are you gonna watch Puppy Bowl twenty?
I'm always not for Puppy Bowl. You know that.
I know you love. It's the twentieth Puppy Bowl. You can bet. You can bet on the MVP Most Valuable Puppy, and I there's some pretty good angles for Most Valuable Puppy. Patrick Mabones is plus five plus five hundred to win the MVP. Patrick macbone, he's half beagle. Uh he's from Iowa at a shelter in Iowa. Adoptable and Patrick macbones it's because he's bagal. It's they're pack animals and they're they're uh, they've got the keen sense of smell. A
lot of people think he's gonna do well. Your long shot is Bark Purty plus thirty three hundred for MVP Most Valuable Puppy I could do.
I want to sort a whole new podcast from this Puppy Bowl names I gotta how about Travis Yelpsie.
That's pretty good. How about Darius Spee? There you go. I think that's pretty good. All right, man, man, yeah, appreciate it.
We could do this all day.
Yeah we probably nobody's listening, but yes we could. All right, have a great Super Bowl everybody. We'll talk to you next week.
Bye bye.
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