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Super Bowl Breakdown

Feb 11, 202239 min
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Episode description

Not only do you get a fantasy-style breakdown of the Super Bowl, but Mat Harrison provides an absurd level of research for some of the zaniest Super Bowl prop bets. 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio. Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now, here's your host. It's a super Bowl edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul charchy In. My co host this week is Matt Harrison. Hello, it's been a month, it has Yeah, we've missed you. Yeah, you know, got

through the COVID again again. My voice is starting to come back. I was sounding a little gravelly. I was like, I was like, I almost kind of sound like Brian right now. But Brian did a great job breaking down all the games I thought for the playoff rounds, and uh yeah I was. I was listening while I was while I was away, and happy gave me back. All right, Yeah,

I'm glad to have you back. We're gonna we're gonna break down this game Fantasy Football Weekly style with a letter grades on every player for the Super Bowl, and then you're gonna come in and give us some of your absurd prop bets that are all actual bests. Right, Yes, you can make Yeah, I got a whole bunch of prop bets, ranging from some some really silly ones to just ones ones that are actually football related that I

think might actually hit. So and if people want to play along with your prop bet game, they can go to shock fantasy dot com and they can download your your prop bet game sheet, your super Bowl party. Yeah, it's my eleventh year making it now and I've been selling it on Shock Fantasy for the last couple of years, and we you know, a couple of hundred people play it every year. It's it's pretty fun and I shoot out all the answers to it, so you can kind of follow along on Twitter as I live tweet the

answers and everybody has a good time. The big highlight of of the whole prop bet game in the last decade was I always put one question on there will a fan run on the field during the game. We've had that at least once, right happened to last year. Last year there was and and it's always a throwaway. It's a free if you answer no, it's ten points if you answer yes. It was three hundred fifty two last year. But it's always a throwaway because everybody's like

it never happens. The security at the super Bowl, all that stuff. It's it's a free ten points. It happened last year. My son, my sixteen year old at the time, son, he was the only one who went. He won the wouldn't you hit it? Because the ratio is one? Yeah, I think I'd have played it that way every time, or at least I downgraded it quite a bit this year because it broke the game. I bet, I bet, and your son won. He won it. Therefore you have

to switch it to he can't. He can't win again because I won the year before and and this this, this, the suggression will not stand. Yeah. I like that. You gotta you gotta, you gotta give your kid a beat down whenever you can. All Right, So that's what's coming up on Fantasy Football Weekly. Let's let's dive into the games. Uh And I've got the pledgure of breaking down this game. Jump in whenever you want, man, And I'm gonna start on the Cincinnati side, and I'm gonna start with the

running game, which I am not a fan of. I am really down in Joe Mixon. Were this a betting podcast, I'd be telling you about taking the under on Joe Mixon podcast After the Break A little bit um so it he looks like a guy who is laboring under the burden of three hundred thirty five touches this year. That's Derrick Henry, it really is. He's averaging over the last eight games, Joe Mixon is averaging three point four yards per carry. That's kind of that's the stuff that

we that gets you cut. If you're not the lead runner on your team, that's bad. And then he plays the Rams correct, that's gonna be a bigger problem. I'll get to that in just a second. You might be tempted to think, well, Okay, he's been laboring under all these carries, but he's had the week off. But I will remind you, Matt he had the week off in week eighteen. Oh and he came back the next week with a forty eight yard game on two and a

half yards per carry. And that was against a Raiders team that wasn't a great run defense either, not at all. In fact, a very favorable run defense. So there's no guarantee that week the week off will help Joe Mixon. Here, the Rams were the second best run defense in the second half of the season, giving up just three point four yards per carry. If that were applied to a full season, they would have been the number one run defense in the NFL. And Um, the positive for Joe

Mixon is the heavy usage through the air. Lately. He's top twenty seven yards through the year in five straight games, but prior to that, he wasn't really catching at all. He was averaging two catches fourteen yards of game. So these last five games, I mean, it's trending the right way, but it you know, if you look over the bulk of his entire career and even the season, Joe Mixon was not a reliable pass catcher. C grade on Joe Mixon. There's a there's a better reliable pass catcher from the

SINC backfield that we'll talk about later. Okay, I'm sure, oh here talking about And he's trending the white right way with more catches too, all right, So let's go to the passing game, and Jamar Chase is electrifying. Of course, he's averaging a whopping nine targets per games since weeks week sixteen. Nine times, wait the nine times, we got it? Thank heavens. Um, he's uh, he has topped nine six yards in seven of the last nine games for Jamaar Chase.

But will Chase see Jalen Ramsey is the big question. I think the answer is probably and mostly but not necessarily probably mostly yes, um, so people see him each other, so Chase can ruin the game in a way. Northern Bengal Ken the Rams know that they've got to put Ramsey on Chase a fair amount, if not all the time, almost all the time, But historically the Rams would prefer to use Ramsey on a more physical wide out, and

that would be te Higgins. So I don't know that there's a there's some kind of a mandate for Ramsey to chase him around. And then the next question, is Ramsey a death sentence for Jamaar Chase. The answer is kind of, you know, here's why he's Profitball focuses number one ranked coverage cornerback. Over the course of the full season, Ramsey is giving up thirty five yards per game and point two touchdowns per game in his that's it. So that doesn't bode well for Jamaar Chase if Ramsey's on him.

Also a solid tackler, he only missed eight tackles the entire year, twenty games this year, played them all only misstate tackles all year, and he's giving up just fourteen yards of yak per game. That's not much. That's not a lot of yak. So but you know, we don't know for sure that Ramsey's gonna be on Chase, but you gotta figure Ramsey's gonna be on Chase a lot,

and hasn't. Ramsey played a lot of one side of the field mostly this year, and they deployed him as a depends It's a great question, depends on who they're facing against teams that have one alpha receiver, Ramsey shadows teams that have two Alpha receivers. Ramsey tends to play one Bengals like the Bengals have kind of So this is why I'm saying, we just nobody outside of l A really knows for sure how Ramsey were gonna is

gonna work. So it feels like it's going to be probably a sixty forty split could be, but it's it's hard to know for sure. And if I were the Bengals, I wouldn't want to let Jamar Chase wreck my wreck my game, and I put Ramsey on him more than I otherwise would absolutely all right, let's talky about te Higgins, since we've alluded to him a number of times. If you do believe that the Rams are gonna do whatever is necessary to stop Jamar Chase from single handedly beating them,

t Higgins can do well in non Ramsey coverage. You know, I was looking for teams, other teams to face the Rams that had two good receivers, and how the other receiver did Brandon Ayou hundred in seven yards in Week eighteen and then seventy yards in the NFC Championship Game. A J This is recently a J Green put up a hundred two yards in a secondary rule. So you know there are some cases where we've seen the number

two receiver do particularly well. I've got a B grade and Tie Higgins I should mention a B grade on Jamaar Chase as well. Both are fair. Tyler Boyd is also a B grade. Real. I like Boyd a lot in this matchup. So we know, the one place we know Jalen Ramsey's not going to be is in the slot. Okay, he is not gonna get any Jalen Ramsey um. And Tyler Boyd's actually on the field even more than Tee Higgins. He's a slot receivers on the field more than Tee

Higgins is higher snap count. He's had five or more

targets in eight of the last nine games. Tyler Boyd has and some other slot receivers have done very well in the slot against l A. Recent matchups include Deebo Samuel three meetings against this team, since we tend primarily not only but prepared primarily running from the slot, seventy two yards and ninety seven yards and ninety five yards Christian Kirk twice since week fourteen fifty one yards, eighty six yards, Randall Cobb ninety five yards, kJ Osbourne sixty

eight yards. These are all second half of the season slot performances. I can hear you on all of those. The debo thing is kind of broken, but the other ones, they're still good numbers there. So I do like that from a slot perspective, and he's probably worth throwing in a few DFS lineups if you're playing Tyler Boyd and betting, and he's gonna be cheap his UH over under his only I believe thirty two yards Tyler. I'm I like

the over um on for Tyler Boyd quite a bit. Um. The last guy I want to talk about is the quarterback Joe Burrow. Um. I like, I've got all these B grades and his receivers, So I like Joe Burrow. Um, I don't love him here. I gotta give him a B, right, I gotta give him a B with of all those receivers were be I gotta give him a B. So I did. Um. I love his ability to play his

best in big games. Right. So, whether you want to look at these playoffs, you want look at the l s U championship, if you want to look at his high school championship game in which he his offense through for fifty two points and lost. He said he was more nervous for his high school championship game than he was for the l s U National Championship game because now he's now, he's had the reps, and he's never lost a playoff game in college or the pros. Yeah,

he did in the high school. I lost that one, but his team put a fifty two points. He's like, never again, never again shall I lose in the playoffs. Over the last nine games, the Rams are good, not dominating past defense, but they're good. Over the last nine games, they're allowing half a touchdown pass and two yards per game. And over that stretch they faced Kyler Murray twice, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins. So some good quarterbacks all right

in that mix for Joe Burrow. Let's go to the ram side. Um, Let's start with the running game here. I do not like this running game. I do not like them, Sam, I am no. So let's not Cam Acres. He's he's still dealing to at least some degree with the shoulder injury from the game two weeks ago. Fumbles have hurt him, injuries have hurt him, but more than anything else, he hasn't look that good. He's averaging two point six yards per carry since his return. Okay, that's it.

That's not great. He's done. Honestly, he's done nothing to warrant the start over Sony Michelle. I mean, if you just just took those separate players, and you know I feel about Sony Walkman. I'm not here to make any excuses for Sony Walkerman. He's he's been better than the version of cam Akers that we've seen. Some Acres has

seen the Niners run defense, which is pretty good is twice. Yeah, he's seen the Bucks run defense, which is where the best in the league, and then the Cardinals, which they were much improved this year as well. So and the Bengals are bad. For a second here, um, but I think there's a real scenario where Acres, maybe there's only a five percent chance it doesn't even get the start.

They go to Michelle who's healthy, uh and more effective, or they do hot hand where you know, they try both guys early and Michelle looks better that he just runs away with this thing and we don't even see Acres. That scenario is definitely out there based on how Acres has played. Fortunately, the Bengals run defense is a real weakness. The biggest weakness on the whole team is the run defense, giving a four point eight yards per carrying the second half of the regular season and five and a half

yards per carrying the playoffs. Well, and Jerick McKinnon looked awesome in the first half of that game against the Bengals in the conference championship game, and then inexplicably, the Chiefs just stopped running the ball in the second half and and they lost because of it, I think so. I I think that McVeigh has seen that, and I think that there will be a healthy dose of running in this game for the Rams, just not sure to whom. Yep, it could be a good fifty fifty split in this one.

So I've got Acres with the Seep, got Sony Michelle with the Sea. Darren Henderson is expected to be available for this game, but I do not trust him in this one to have a meaningful role. Hasn't played in whatever six weeks, been a long time. All right, let's go to the passing game. I want to start with Cooper Cup. Oh really right, Um, I'm the only guy

that's that's a little nervous about Cooper Cup. I heard you talking with p a On on the on the Football Feast today and you were you were explaining why you thought the under on his over under on the yards I'd hit was the was the correct play. Yes, you already know Cooper cups great. I'm not even gonna focus on his on how good Cooper Cup is, but I want to talk to you about why this is a tricky matchup for him. Cooper Cup runs almost his routes from the slot. That means he's going to see

Mike Hilton. These two met up, have met up one time prior two years ago and Hilton was still in Pittsburgh and Cooper Cup had no catches on four targets. They were Jared Goff targets. I have reason they were. They were Jared Goff targets. So that's just one day to point and it doesn't carry a lot of weight with me, but it's still out there and I want to make sure people know that Hilton is very good.

He slowed a similarly explosive Tyreek Hill last week last game, allowing just twenty two yards to Tyreek Hill in his coverage in the wild card round with another tricky matchup out of the slot, Hunter renfro One catch six yards. I mean, if you're gonna use history as a as a guideline, Cooper Cup has one game against the Bengals

in his history. You know what he did in that game, the score, and I thought about I thought about bringing it up, but there's nobody in this secondary that was on the field bed It was three years ago too, so it was a lot of time ago. So I'm not trying to make my killing sound like the second Coming in Dion Sanders. He's good, and I think you can show a little bit of caution on Cooper Cup. I'm going he's good, but Cooper Cups is arguably the

m v P of the league. I'd give him the m v And I know I'm talking to the two people You and I either two people at like Cooper Cup in the preseason more than anybody. No, but still I am showing a little bit of caution. Okay, there we go. Sooner or later I was gonna find gonna find them out right, all right, Let's talk Odell Beckham.

Um surging of late with increasing receptions and yards and four straight games, and if you do believe Cup is going to be just slowed by Mike, by Mike Hilton, that could put some extra receptions towards Odell Beckham much like we have been seeing lately Um, and he'll see likely a lot of chidobe A Woozier, who is the best of the coverage corners that the Bengals have. He's been very good and he always takes He generally shadows

the opposing team's best outside receiver. You won't move to the slots, he won't get Cup, but he'll be on Beckham for this game. Um Woozia is having a good season. He's profoba focuses fifteen ranked cornerback. He has given up scores in each of the last two games. I'll mention that uh Tyreek Hill scored last week in a j Brown killed him two weeks ago, two games ago, rolling up a hundred thirty four yards. But on the season, Ousia was very good. So I'm sure a little caution

I'm backing, but a lot. I've got to be great on him, and I think he gets some use here. And then the other receiver that we should talk about is Van Jefferson. The beauty of Van Jefferson in this game is gonna get Eli Apple for most of the game, and Apples terrible by far the weak point. Jefferson's my guy. Now. The problem is Van Jefferson is good for three targets

a game. That's it. So he's hope that's all he needs. Um. He has had it that he has had either one or two catches in seven of the last eight games. For Van Jefferson's He's got to do a lot with the catches that he does get. UM. So with Eli Apple there, I can't put him on the bench, even in only one or two catches, I'm giving him a Sea Greggs. The chance of a big game is there. Yeah, And O'Dell has been been fantastic in the last few weeks too, with eleven targets last week in the conference

championship game. It's obvious that he's feeling better than he's ever felt before, Like from a headspace perspective, winning help. It feels. It feels like he's back to the old Odell that everybody wanted on their fantasy teams. Maybe this is the last glimpse of it, because he's gonna have to go for a big contract after this year. But this might be peque O'Dell maybe for the remainder of his career. Maybe um, you know what, he doesn't do the circus catches that he did with a Giant aren't

are not there anymore for whatever reason. Well, he doesn't have you know, Eli Manning throwing Stafford. He's got better target. Either either they're way off there or they're right on. So let's talk a little Kendall Blanton. There we go. I love Kendall Blanton. Higby ain't going you know, they may do some smoke screw ruse about Higbee maybe playing through his m c l. It's not gonna happen. McVeigh and Stafford have shown no hesitation in using Blanton. Last week,

they targeted him five times. He caught all five passes put a fifty seven yards. Cincinnati very generous too tight ends this year, allowing the fourth most tight end receptions, the fourth most tight end yards, the sixth most tight end touchdowns. Kelsey murdered the Bengals last week. Darren Waller wracked up seventy six yards and seven catches in the

wild card round. And I'm not saying Kendall Blanton is Kelsey or Waller obviously, but the opportunities are going to be there for Kendall Blanton, and I've got to be great on him. I got Kendall Blanton as one of my special prep bet good, we can expand on this one. Good. Uh, let's see. And then Matthew Stafford, so I've got all of his receivers have a B grade except Van Jefferson is a C grade. So I've got to be great

on Stafford, which I was. It feels right. Cincinnati's twenty games this year, only three quarterbacks of top two touchdowns. So I don't think it's an explosive game coming from Stafford. But something in the neighborhood of two touchdowns and two hundred sixty two yards sounds about right here, and that gives them a be great all right, all right, So there's your breakdown on the Super Bowl. Easy. It all

sounds so simple now, sounds so simple. But and then the game seven to ten, it will all be garbage. Who is your pick to win the Super Bowl? Um? I've got the Rams narrowly if and when I was on the radio earlier today, Matt I said, if these teams played ten times, I think the Rams would win like six of them. So if I were betting the game, I would actually bet the Bengals money line at plus one sixty five. And but I think the Rams are more likely to win the game, if that makes sense,

That are minus two hundred. So just from a pure betting standpoint, I would I'm picking the Rams to win, but I would pick the four and a half four and a half, So yeah, I think I think Bengals with the points is a play, isn't it. So those those four and a half are are definitely interesting fun. Alright, speaking of fun, Yeah, let's take a break. When we come back, I want to talk through some of your unique, odd ball, many cases prop bets for the Super Bowl.

Stay tuned for the next segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison with you Shock Fantasy dot Com. Yeah, you're wearing the Shock Fantasy colors, but not my kids hockey. Uh a coincidence that your kids school colors are the Salmons Act colors of Shock Fantasy. Well, yellow is my favorite color, and blue just works really well with yellow. So I mean, obviously obviously I'm on the rams apparently, so um. So yeah,

let's talk some prop bets. Let's do it, baby. So I do this big prop bet game that you mentioned earlier in the show. I've been doing it for eleven years. There's actually two of them over at Chock Fantasy right now. The first one has it's the original. It's got forty one questions. It starts with the national anthem, it ends with, you know, the the end of the game, the gatorade bath, the trophy presentation, all that stuff, halftime show, all that good,

good stuff. Um, lots of It's a good mix of football, actual prop bets and silly things to bet on, like like will there be a wardrobe malfunction at the halftime show? Perfect? Yeah, that's that's a great example, and it's really easy to All you do is you select one guess for each question. If you get it right, you get the points associated with your guests, and if you get wrong, you get zero. What did you read? You're you're going through my prop bet sheet for the first time. How many points do

you get if there is a wardrobe mall function? Oh? You know it's sixty nine? Of course, of course it is. But if you don't want to play that with your children, there's also a kids version. Got the of the prop bet game that's got just twenty questions. Uh. You get both at the same uh, with the same purchase at Shock Fantasy dot com. In the shop it just click on the super Bowl prop bet game and I got a promo code for FFW listeners blue as in blue gatorade. Oh that's get off b l U b l U

E gets off the super Bowl prop bet game. All right, So let's talk about some of the ridiculous prop bets that I have uh Bovada. They talk about the national anthem a lot, and everybody knows the national anthem over

under all that stuff. It's it, by the way, they over under on that surprisingly low this year, and Mickey Guiton she she's clocked in at singing this for like some some big Washington d C. Festival, like seventy five seconds, which is like the lowest national let's national anthem you could sing. It's a like seven of the last eight national anthems have gone over a hundred seconds, So come on. But that's great historic data. Yeah, I got a lot

of debt on stupid things about this. But Bovada has a national anthem prop for the number of planes involved in the flyover, and the odds are plus one five for over five and minus one seventy for under five. And so I did a bit of research. The plan is there's exactly five planes to take part in the flyover, so you're probably gonna push this bet right. Many of these planes are historic planes, though, including a World War two P fifty one Mustang fighter jet which is eighty

years old, so it could fail. It's what you're saying, might not get off the ground. So if five is a push, you take the under just in case one of these planes to get off the ground. At the at the worst you're getting minus one seven D and you win, and at well at the worst you push, so so you could win. Yeah, let's go. Look, we're gonna get our money back if we lose this one. They're not gonna be a sixth plane suddenly that hops

up there. Um, the coin toss. I've got two coin toss bets here that I think people should think about here. One is an absolute lock. By the way, Um, there's a prop bed at MGM Grand that the team that wins the opening coin toss will defer, and odds are minus five hundred on that, so not great odds. It means it's gonna happen pent of the time. Yeah, but however the time. Sean McVeigh has forty eight career coin toss wins, he's deferred every single one of them, including

the Super Bowl against the Patriots. Zack Taylor has twenty seven career coin toss wins. He's deferred twenty six times. So you roll that to get other when we're atentile range. There's NFL teams deferred this year so this that's a lock that's gonna happen. Like you can just make some money on that. We will make a lot of money, but we'll make not a lot, but you'll make some.

The second coin toss bet, if you think the Bengals will win the game, you bet the Rams to win the coin toss because the Bengals are O and two in Super Bowl coin tosses throughout their history, and the Rams the most coin toss wins in Super Bowl history without a loss, their four and oh in coin toss history, plus the past seven teams that lost the Super Bowl coin toss went on to win the Super Bowl seven in a row. Uh So, Bovada has a couple of coin toss bets, but I found the one that you

want to bet here. This bet is will the Rams win the coin toss and win the game? Oh so no, So you bet the know it's minus two twenty. But as long as the Rams don't sweep the coin toss and the game, you're in good shape. Here. Gatorade, I talked a little bit about Gatorade keyword blue, keyword blue, which one of these coaches are going to get liquid dumped on them. One of them will because it's either

of their first Super Bowl victory. I've actually got twenty years of data on a spreadsheet about what color liquid was dumped on the coach. But over the last eight years, orange has happened three times, and blue has happened three times, and blue has happened two of the last three years. And it's worth noting that the main colors of each of these teams are blue and orange. The only time of liquid was not dumped on the coach, only one has orange. Well, I know, but yeah, the Rams orange

for okay, I guess. Yeah. The only time liquid was not dumped on the coach. Guess who it was, Parcel Belichick. Nobody has the guts to do it, and his fifth Super Bowl win, they did not Gator Gator right on him. So Orange is coming in at a heavy favorite at plus two hundred, but the value bet is Blue at plus six hundred. Go plus six do you get the team color? Um? Two of the last three have been blue. As I mentioned. All right, let's get to some actual

bets in the game. And there's one thing I know about you, Charge, I've been to Vegas with you before. You like to bet the favorite in the first half. Um, I don't have to worry about the back door cover. That's right, and the Bengals are the back door cover.

T The Rams are minus three as a line in the first half of the first half over under of twenty three and a half, and if you follow first and second half trends, this game should go on the Rams favor because the Bengals are twenty five in the league in first half defense, allowing twelve point four points per game. Through the playoffs, they're allowing thirteen point three points per game in the first half of games, so it's been they have been worse in the first half.

The Rams, on the other hand, are third in the league in first half points allowed at only nine point four and in their three playoff games they've allowed four point three points in the first half. Wow, that's it. So I will hammer the Rams in the first half, give up the three points. My guess is the halftime score is probably something around fourteen three. Now the over under. Here's what the teams have done in the playoffs so far.

Bengals first half versus the Chiefs thirty one, the Titans fifteen, the Raiders thirty three, So two of the three went over the twenty three and a half. But the Rams under under under seventeen against the Niners, twenty three against the Bucks and twenty one against the Cardinals, So that puts it together. I'm feeling it's an under on the first half. But I like I like the Rams in the first I would I don't think i'd bet the total.

I would bet the Rams. I would too. Um, Cooper Cup, you talked about how you're a little scared of Cooper Cup and and so I love Cooper Cup. But there, yap, the Mike Hilton thing worries me a little bit. Cooper Cup has had twenty touchdowns this year in twenty games. That's a lot in the first half of games. He's wait, let me guess of the twenty, how many were in the first half? Seven? You got it right, nailed it. We don't have a ding ding on there, but oh

yes we do second half obviously thirteen. So if you want a Cooper Cup bet, you go with Cooper Clutch. Here's the odds on Draft Kings sports Book. Cup as an any time touchdown scorer in the second half in the second the second half, only any time in the second half. I bet it's plus close plus one eight and cup as the first touchdown score in the second

half is plus three four fifty even better. So if you at a hundred dollar bet on both, if he's the first touchdown in the second half, you walk away with sixty bucks in your pocket, and if he's just as the a score, you still walk away plus eighty on that one. So I like doing both of those bets together. Now, can I give you my Kendall Blanton right here? Since we're talking about time for Kendall Blanton? All right? Have you do you also have a Kendall

Blanton one right here? Well? Is it? If I wanted to do the touchdown the any time touchdown? That that's what I got. So Higby has the sprained m c L. He's probably not gonna play. Um. Blanton scored the first touchdown for the Rams in the wild card game against the Cardinals. The Bengals have allowed eight touchdowns to the tight end position in their last eleven games. That's terrible. Lots of those were high end touch or tight ends

like Kelsey was in there, Andrews was in there. Um, but Tyler Croft, Foster Moreau, Pat Friar Muther in that list too, so Blanton as coming in at plus eight hundred as the first Rams touchdown score, but plus six hundred is the game's first touchdowns score. And I like those long shots. I like those shot. Yeah, I think I think those are the ones that I'm kind of looking at. And I'll list my my official bets at the end here. Um. I got a couple of quarterback

trends here too. Um. In the four games that the Rams lost this season, three of the four quarterbacks they faced through for exactly two touchdowns. No quarterback through for three touchdowns against the Ross year. Um. Only one other quarterback through two touchdowns against the Rams this year, and that was in their wins obviously. So if you believe the Bengals will win, it's minus one s two on the over of one and a half touchdowns for Joe Burrow.

But if you believe the Rams will win, as I do, you bet against Joe Burrow here, it's plus one two on the under one and a half touchdowns betting against Joe Burrow. And that's from FanDuel. Now. On the other side, and the six losses that the Bengals had this season, quarterbacks absolutely torched them. Uh, I'm gonna throw out the Bears game in Week two where Justin Fields and Andy Dalton split the game. I remember it was Dalton got knocked out of the game. Fields had to come in

for his first ever NFL action. But the other five games, the average for those quarterbacks was twenty six completions, three d sixteen passing yards, and two scores. One of those was Mike White, by the way, I remember that classic Mike White four hundred five yards game. So during the playoffs, Stafford is averaging three passing yards and two scores per game. Now, if you believe the Rams will win, as I do, the over under on passing yards for Stafford is currently

to seventy nine and a half. On draft kings, that's currently minus one, and the over under for passing touchdowns for Stafford is one and a half. Passing touchdowns, the over on that is minus two thirty. The completions, though, that's the key here. Completions over under for Stafford is twenty four and a half. He completed twenty eight and

thirty one passes in his last two playoff games. That's against Tampa and San France, and you get plus one hundred on the over on that one, So I like, like, I like the completions one the best, but I think he probably hits the over on all of these. If you think the Rams are gonna win this game, all right? Interesting, Yeah, that makes it. It does make some sense. And finally, and and I said, as I mentioned earlier, I don't

think Joe Mixon is gonna run effectively. Yep. I think it would be a lot of attempts out there to be had for perfect segue to my final weird Bengals bet som J. P Ryan total receiving yards nine and a half. It's not mine, that's not money, it's basically one. Yep. I'm gonna take the over. And that Peron has been pretty quiet on the rushing end of the game. That's

why I'm not touching any of the rushing props. And I think the rushing prop is like three and a half or something like that him, but I'm not gonna touch it because he's had so many games with zero

carries um. But he did have three catches for forty three yards against the Chiefs in the Conference championship, and he's hit ten receiving yards at least, which would hit the over in eleven of his last fifteen games, uh and through twenty games, twenty four different running backs have hit at least ten receiving yards against the Rams this year, and that doesn't include Deebo Samuel who did a lot of damage out of the backfield and his three meetings against the Rams as well. So I like the p

rein over nine and a half receiving yards. So here's my official list. I'll run them all down for you under five planes on the national anthem at minus one seventy. Knowing I'm gonna push that winner of the coin toss differs at minus five hundred. That's just free money, though, I'll take Blue Gatorade at plus six hundred. I will take the Rams at minus three in the first half, and then my Kendall Blanton Bets first score plus six d and first first Rams score at plus eight hundred.

I do both of those. I'll take both Cooper Cup second half touchdown props any time score in the second half at plus one eighty, first touchdown score in the second half at plus four fifty, and then Soma J. P Ryan over nine and a half and then I then that's where it diverges. If you think the Rams will win those ones. I think anybody can make a bet on, and I think that they can feel pretty confident.

But if you think the Rams will win, I'll take the Stafford over on twenty four and a half completions at plus one hundred. And if you think the Bengals will win, I'll take that weird no on the Rams win the toss and the game at minus twenty and I would take the over on one and a half Joe Burrow touchdown passes at minus one. I'd like to know what that part light would pay it almost gosh, man, I should almost just put that up just to see what I wonder if FanDuel or DraftKings has all of those,

because I had to collect these from a few. They don't do the oddball generally, they don't do the odd ball planes in the air kind of stuff. Probably not. That's it's not as cool. You have to go elsewhere. Thank you for listening. Thank you, Matt. That was a lot of fun. One game left, and then we have a two hundred seven day break between meaningful football. Well, then the off season starts and we start gearing up for you know, dynasty and keeper fantasy and we get

ready to go out free agency and draft. Oh, there's probably to talk about, but we will not be breaking down another game. Are you going out to the Combine this year? Yes, awesome, I'm going to the compe. We you should do a live Combine podcast, Fantasy Football from the from the Combine. Uh, maybe it's not a half bad idea. Actually, I mean, Paul Allen might be a good host, right, I could have the catches that the

Combine is so early. It's it comes so quickly at the end of the Super Bowl, and you know, if you work in the NFL scouting department, your college scout, this feels like it's very late in the process. But for you know, for those of us that are working the NFL that aren't focused on college football, I'm just starting my college prep. I'll be starting my college prep next week, so it's it's hard to get I don't always feel up to speed by the time the Combine

rolls around. That's where I'm learning. Yeah, I know, I'm kind of learning about all the rookies right now too, that are coming out. I've been doing a few mock draft simulations lately, just to kind of get familiar with the names and he's kind of fallen where and it's gonna be really interesting because there's no clear cut guy after it seems like the top two to me, So it's gonna be it's gonna be very interesting this year in the draft. Yes, we will not be talking about

great quarterback opportunities, I don't think. So there's you know, there's that, and there's there's a lot of people who don't agree on who the best quarterback is class and where that players should go. And they could be one through five really, so, uh, thank you for listening. We'll be back next week with a with a look at some of depending free agents and the players that may have an opportunity to step into a vacated role. Exciting. Yeah that'll be That'll be join you for that. Yeah,

that would be great. We'll talk to you then everybody, but bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

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