Super Bowl 2.0, this time with feeling

it got me excited. I was on the plane heading home and I needed a good Uh. Oh, man, there's Scott right now. He's waving at his he heard his name. I think he did. Hey, He's like, Hey, let's happen. It's goot, let's happen. Oh, this is the Nick Bosa half a sack conversation. You love Nick Bosa half a sack. I know I'm gonna take Joey Bosa and the under the way under way under Uh. That's my co host Explosive Output Matt Harrison at Explosive Output on Twitter. We

um it was Scott Fish last week. We broke it down the game fantasy style last week, and at that time I lamented that I really didn't have a great sense of who is gonna win in the in the week sense. I feel pretty good. And where where are you coming in on? Niners are gonna win? I think the Niners are gonna win. So I was just can tell you why if you want, well, I yeah, go ahead, tell me why. I'll tell you why. Let me let's

just talk broadly about the paths to victory. The Chiefs have got one and a half viable path to victory. Patrick Mahomes in their passing game clearly one of them. Their past defense is good. It's not lights out, but it's good. I'll give him half. That's that's the one and half. They're not gonna run their way to victory, and the run defense is not going to key them to victory. The nine or Is, on the other hand,

have got four paths to victory. They can pass their way to a win with Kittle and Sanders and Samuel all capable of game changing plays. Jimmy Garoppolo better than people think percent completion percentage twice in a in one sentence. Um, you know, people think he's like this mundane caretaker quarterback. I'll remind people four times this year in the same game he threw for two seven yards and three or

four touchdowns in a game. I think it's not a caretaker cord and think that those were all against the Cardinals, though two of the four were against the Cardinals. Okay, some and dude, it's a winner Garoppolo. Four games with Garoppolo starting since so since Jimmy Garoppolo four games with him, nineteen wins, twenty four games without him four I mean a winner. I mean, you know, you look at what

the state of the team is. Anytime he doesn't play and they can't win, doesn't hurt that they have one of the top defenses in the league. And that's probably one of your next paths to victory. It is a path to victory, isn't it. Here's your past defense for the forty Niners, number one in passing yards allowed this year.

And by the way, if you take out that December when they were missing four defensive starters, the average game we mentioned this stat last week with Scott Fish the average game passing against the forty Niners one hundred sixty one yards. That's it. One tell people the special guest that's in studio with us, oh my dog Hattie. She's a little puppy. She's four months old. So a Morky, I'll post a picture on Twitter. Now, people don't know a Morky is half yor Ky and half mork from Orc,

yes or Maltese, one of the two. One of that. We can't be sure. You know, Robin Williams legacy is so profound that it's it may actually be into the breeding. She does have a little bit of Robin Williams hair. I mean it kind of looks like harrier than your dog that I think. I think she'd give him a run. Uh but had Hattie's in studio. She doesn't make a lot of noise. You might hear a little wine in here there, but normally that's just me. Nine is her

number five in sacks UH registered last year. UH of the season. Pro Football Focus ranks them number three in past run past rush defense and number one in past coverage defense. I mean, you know, so obviously they can win against the past. The Niners scan they can win against the run. They were top eight in rushing yards per game allowed, rushing attempts per game allowed, rushing touchdowns per game allowed. UM there are two point four yards per carry. Aloud was right in the middle of the pack,

So I'll grant them, I'll mention that. But I think they run defense, which totally shut down Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones. It's a good on defense. They can win on the run defense, and then of course they could The Niners can run themselves, run on offense. They can run to victory. They have four paths. I don't even have to explain how they can run their path unto victories. They just did it twice in a role in the playoffs against good teeth, good defenses. So yeah, that's uh.

I think the Niners have so many more paths to victory. I just feel better about the nine. If they play this game a hundred times. How many times do you think the Niners win? Obviously you think it's more than half sixty three? Okay? Um, So I just saw some stats from the athletics shil Kapatia, and I probably mispronounced like you're destroyed him because family legacy has been ruined. Six point eight billion being wagered on Super Bowl fifty four. That's a lot of money. I wish we had to

cut it. I'll be part of that. According to the Borgatta in Atlantic, City of the money, and of the tickets are being bet on the Chiefs. I like being on the house side with the underdog and the over by the way, everybody pounding the over. One of the one of the great stats. I saw the Chiefs three losses this year. I combined sixteen points. That's it. That's it. We're pretty close. So how gutsy do you have to be to take the Niners and giving points? Because you

can do that, right you can. You can go Niners and go Niners and give three, and can go Niners and give so I shot you that the other day. I gotta pulled up right here. Um this is from Westgate. Uh. If you give the Niners, if they if they have three and a half that they have to beat, Yeah, PLU, that's not enough. It could be more than plus one sixty five. It's like Vegas has this figured out. Minus seven and a half plus two seventy should still be more minus ten and a half plus four hundred. Now

we're getting there. And the one if we're gonna make a bet as a as an office for you to take to Vegas this weekend, I think we should go for the forty Niners blowout scenario minus fourteen and a half plus five fifty Because if we're all gonna throw in, you know, ten twenty bucks here and and and put a wager down to make it worth our while, I want you to come back and give me a hundred, not forty. What fun is that? So I like that angle. If we're gonna do the office bet, let's do some

player props. Yeah, I've got three and a half that I can talk about. I got three that I like quite a bit. First, I'll start with the Sammy Watkins over under a forty eight and a half receiving yards. He's had forty nine or more yards and four of his last six and everybody like just knows he had that great Week one and then did nothing the rest

of the regular season. But he had a couple of little pop ups in the end of an end of the year and more active in the playoff and the playoffs, he's been good, uh seventy six yards in the Divisional round, a hundred and fourteen in the conference championship. And I imagine San Francisco slides their average or at least tries to get good players on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey a lot. There's gonna be a lot of double teaming of this year. But they're not gonna move Richard Sherman.

They're not going to move him at all. If Sammy Watkins lends up on a Kello Witherspoon, it takes one pass, whether won't be on the field. He might not, They'll use Emmanuel Moses spond. I means, should only be one pass from Patrick Mahomes for Sammy Watkins to hit the over on this bet. I kind of like the bet that's true about really all of the players. It's one pass to Tyreek Hill, one pass to Travis Kelsey. And that's why it's so god It's so scary to bet

anything against him, because that's all it takes. He's just anyone, anyone thing, anyone play at Mahomes just lit you up. Um. I still kind of like the Chiefs to win this game, and it's just because of Pat Patrick Mahomes. He's the X factor of the whole thing. He the best player in the league. Oh for sure, We're we're not going to talk about him as the top overall pick in Fantasy next year, but I think he's going to be my QB one when we go into Fantasy football season next,

very defensible, all right, anything else on Watkins? No, that's it. But I want to hear your next George Kittle over sixty seven. Brian Johnson feels very strong and he's been pounding the table on this. So I decided digging on Kittle. Um, we're gonna We're gonna cash in on a recency bias here. Kittle has failed two top twenty yards in the two playoff games, so I think people are understandably nervous about

banking on Kittle now. But here's the thing. If I look at Kittle's last games, one game he hit right on sixty seven yards. Nine games went over the number. Wait nine times nine? Where where is it hold on fantasy? Not that one? No, you need the cheat sheet. Where's nine times it took you? Nine times? Nine times he hit sixty By the way, you just left. Just let it breathe, Just let it breathe. I'll never get tired

of hearing the sad trombone solo from American Pie too. Uh. Kittle went over the Vegas number of sixties seven nine times in his last thirteen games, so you might be thinking yourself, well, Vegas had to adjust Vegas had to adjust the line because Kansas Cities defense was so good against tight ends. Uh man, were they bad? Kansas City allowed the second most tight end receptions the fourth most

tight end yards. And here's the funny thing. I'm looking through Tennessee against elite tight ends this year and I'm trying to find comparables to George Kittle, and there aren't any. They played the softest tight end schedule. You can imagine the two best tight ends they faced all year, Darren Waller and Hunter Henry. That no, it is and they're in division and they're in division UM. And by the way, those guys predominantly did well. So yeah, it's I I

think it'll sitting on a really nice game here. By the way, two weeks ago, Tennessee's tight ends went over the Vegas number of sixty seven as well. Two weeks ago, UM, Kansas City lost their free safety want Thornhill in week seventeen as well. So I roll all that together. I really like Kiddle going over sixty seven yards. You know, it's fun to bet the overs on the over unders. Nobody ever wants to cheer for the unders, and it is.

That's how Vegas is built, by the way, so we should probably be hitting under bets like left and right on these But how about Deebo Samuel over under of seventeen and a half rushing yards in that's scary to be It's scary, Okay, he'ld get no carries and I wouldn't be surprised, all right. He's had a carry in each of the last seven games at least one carry um, and he's averaging fourteen point two yards per carry, so we need him to get to one in a third

carries exactly. He's top twenty yards and five of his last seven. He's had at least two rushing attempts in four of the last six, so he's they keep moving him around. Kyle Shanahan's offense is predicated on moving guys around, having different points of attack throughout the whole game. Hattie's chewing on the microphone card. Hattie's chewing on your your microphone card right now? What would happen if you went home with Hattie's carcass and explained that Hattie electrocuted herself

and died in the office on your watch. I don't think that's to the kids. I don't think i'd go home. I just I just disappear. You might get too at that point, change your identity because right now Hattie's worth a lot more in that house than you are. Oh definitely for sure. So yeah, I like I like debote top that over on the rushing yards. I think it's kind of a sneaky one, and I think twenties just something that he can get on one carry, one carry,

it could be. So I like these player props where it's like only one thing has to happen for for me to win this. It's it seems pretty easy, and it's things that I think that we can do. So all right, I've got a couple more. You've got at least one more. We'll take a quick break and we'll come back with more of our our player prop analysis for the Super Bowls. It's Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi

and Matt Harrison with you, and we're back. If I were to tell you, Matt that Damian Williams isn't going to be the chief who rushes for the first touchdown, who's the next most likely person If it's not gonna be Damian Williams, we know none of the other running factors it's Patrick Mahomes. You've cracked the code. I could you have to pay five to one on Damian Williams or you can get twenty to one on Patrick Mahomes

to score the first touchdown of the game. I heard on a podcast yesterday Warren Sharp was on there and he said that Patrick Mahomes on third down scrambles had one percent first downs this year on the season. Wow, all year a year. That's nuts. Um. So let's by the way, for you know where did the rushing touchdowns primarily come from up close to the goal line? Total number of carries for Damian Williams from inside the three this year? You love inside the three? You like getting

in the infrared zone? They do? Um, it's not here longf hi. If you're if you're asking me this question, it's got to be like five or less. I'm getting free. Okay, three, that's it. They don't give the ball to Damian Williams at the stripe. Now, Damian Williams did get dinged up for a while this year and Sean McCoy was inexplicably in the offense, and then they used it out there. They figured it out towards the end of the year

and Lashawn McCoy was gone from that office. Is so that doesn't mean that they were giving Williams these rushes at the stripe. And so I'm not worried about Damian Williams. Mahomes fully healthy from the mid season knee injury, and he scored rushing touchdowns in three of the past seven games. Is this a first rushing score prop? First the first score the game, first score of the game, and it

could go to either team. Now, I like Damian Williams from the standpoint that he does catch a lot of passes and convert, they won't score from them because the Niners have not given up a running back receiving touchdown all year. Well, they also have in faced Patrick Mahomes

this season. It's the point is the point is that they don't give up the touchdowns to the running I don't have so Williams for Williams to be the first one to score a rushing touchdowner otherwise it just it seems unlikely because he would have to be the first running back catch a reception touchdown. So you're saying you don't like this problem. I don't like the Williams prop. I like the I like the Mahomes shing first player to score. Okay, ma Homes is the first player to score.

I like that angle a lot. Keeping Yeah, I mentioned that earlier, but that's okay, um angle if you can find it. What do you think about this? It sounds like Tevin Coleman is gonna play. Tevin Coleman does not play in games. See if you were testing your fantasy football knowledge here, if you go back to those that long streak of games early in the season when Tevin Coleman didn't, I know where you're getting who got the

rushing touchdowns? It's Jeffrey Wilson. It is Jeffrey Wilson, who's so far off radars a lot of times you can't even find him to bet. But if you can, I'm seeing him at twenty five or thirty to one. That's it. I want more. You think I want like, I want like fifty two one on Jeffrey Wilson. Now, then nobody goes for that. Unfortunately he's part of the field, which is a bad deal. That's on the eight to one. Yeah, we don't like that. Okay, what's your next what's your

next bet? I'll stick with the Niners. And their wide receivers. Actually, I annual Sanders over under of two and a half receptions, and this one's this one's counter to what has happened in the playoffs so far because he's only got two total receptions in playoff games. Now, how many passes did Garoppolo throw against the Packers? It was like six or eight or something like that. Didn't throw many more against

the Vikings. They didn't have to. They were rushing for eight or nine yards a clip, so they didn't have to pull anything out. Now, the fact that this matter is is the Chiefs are a better offense and they're gonna make this a better game. It's not going to it's not going to become a blowout in San Francisco's favor early. So I think that they're gonna have to go to Emmanuel Sanders. So the Niners played in five

straight one score games to finish the season. They obviously had the two playoff big victories, but Sanders averaged four receptions per game in those five straight one score games. So if you think it's gonna be a close game, they're gonna throw to Sanders. When it was a shootout against the Saints, which it might be here. That was a two point game. Sanders had nine targets, seven seven receptions,

a hundred and fifty seven yards and a score. Davis, Humphreys, and Brown each had at least three receptions against the Chief Davis Corey Davis up to Tennessee. It took me Tennessee Tennessee. Three wide receivers each had at least three receptions against Kansas City in the Conference championship. All three of the Houston wide receivers, Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills had at least three receptions. So we've had We've had six wide receivers top two and a half receptions

in the last two weeks against the Niners. So I think Emmanuel Sanders over under two and a half. It feels like a lock. Um. I'll give you. I'll give you this as more of an intangible matt for why I believe you're right about Emmanuel Sanders. You're Jimmy Garoppolo, and you dropped back to pass. Oftentimes your first target, the first guy you're gonna look to is George Kittle. Fine, but who's next you look left? Here's Deebo Samuel in the biggest game of his career, rookie wide receiver, biggest

game of his career, played at South South Carolina. It's not like he was in the A C. C plan for a national championship. I mean, or such pros as Troy Williamson coming out of South Carolina. Or you can turn to your head to the right and here's Emmanuel Sanders. Two times Super Bowl participant, one time Super Bowl winner, and in that game six catches eighty three yards. Who's a guy out of all of the Niners other than

maybe Richard Sherman, especially on offense. Here the guy who's going to be most settled, the guy that you can count on to for the moment's not gonna be too big for him. Emmanuel Sanders. There we go. I think Kyle Shanahan's gonna target him early because he's going to be the guy that you can count on to not have the nerves, the Super Bowl nerves that a guy

like people Samuel will have. If you think Shanahan's got like pages and pages of playbook that he hasn't shown anybody over the last few weeks, all in the passing game, well that was Emmanuel Sanders who just wasn't utilized in those two playoff games. I think he's going completely under the radar. I think he's a nice little play. I do too. I love the over two and a half. I am seeing it listed at three some places three,

but I take the over two. Yeah, yeah, I agree. Uh. Patrick Mahomes has an over under three hundred five yards. It's started earlier at closer to like two, and it's been bumping up, up, up up. We're gonna go contrarian here and take the under. Now. Emotionally, that's no fund against It isn't especially, that's it's no fun. But the data, the data says to take the under. Let's dive in. Okay.

In the nine games since returning from his knee injury, Patrick Mahomes has topped the Vegas number of three five three times out of nine times nine three out of nine that's it, okay. The other six have gone under. Now, when we look at during that span of nine games, his most recent nine games, when he's played other good past defenses New England, Chicago and the Chargers twice, these are defenses that are comparable to what the Niners can

give you. Patrick Mahomes average game two hundred twenty two yards. That's it. Now. The Niners were the number one past defense this season, allowing a league low one nine passing yards per game. I alluded to this earlier. If you take out the month of December, that drops to one sixty one passing yards per game and zero point eight passing touchdowns. That's it. So you know in December with

everybody's hurt, they're healthy. Now, you know, if he's going to get if one sixty one yards is what the Niners usually gave up, they can give up more yard Didge and Mahomes. It's still not hit his number. Mm hmm ma. Holmes doesn't necessarily need pass attempts to get his numbers because he's you know, he can throw the ball so far down field and everything else. But the nine is allowed the eighth fewest pass attempts, fourth fewest

time of possession. So you just work all those things together, and there's a lot of ways. Patrick Mahomes doesn't hit three yards. I'm still gonna bet the over because it's way more fun. It's more fun, it's so much more fun. I'm gonna be out there with my wife and really, you know, we're just we're just looking to have fun. We're gonna be a big super Bowl. I mean, if you're looking to have fun, are you going to bet the over under on the national anthem? That's not fun?

Currently said it two minutes. Demi Levado is singing, yeah, um, we got some tape on on her last couple of national anthems. Didn't sound anything like it sounded a little bit better, a little bit better, a little bit better than that. Uh in she did the McGregor Mayweather fight. Okay, came in at two elve the anthem. Okay. However, she's done the World Series three times, really yeah, two thousand

eleven Game five. She's not a big star. She's done in the World Series three times and two thousand fifteen Game four. Okay, okay, hit the under all right on all of those. I'm gonna go over the average time of the Super Bowl national anthem in the last I think I got about thirty years worth of data here one minute fifty five. But pop stars and and and star are not all pop stars. Sometimes they're Sometimes there are guys like Billie Joel, who went ninety seconds, really

one of the shortest anthems in a long time. But lady Gaga went two oh nine, Alicia Keys went two thirty five? Did you really Yeah? Gladys Night last year? When two minutes and twenty seven seconds. So the people who are hanging onto these notes, it's there, it's their big moment. This is the only time she's probably gonna ever sing the national anthem at the Super Bowl series. Three times, she's done the World Series. There's so many games, so I think she holds onto this moment and she's

ready to go. I set my personal over under on my Super Bowl prop bet game at two minutes and four seconds because I wanted to even out the odds a little more, because I'm so confident that two minutes is almost the sucker bet here taking taking the over. Now there's this. The NFL requires that, you know, as as good as it looks, it's all prerecorded. They take

no chances on something as important as this. They are not going to risk having an open mic on some you know, on some artists who might do who knows what, or turn it into what Aretha Franklin did in the playoffs a few years ago. It might not to be a playoff games giving game that was a Thanksgiving game. Here exactly right, Thanksgiving game against the Lines. I remember

it was national. It was a big national stage. But you're right, it was Thanksgiving where she churned it into like a five minute thing about herself, right, and and she's one of the greatest of all time, don't get me wrong, but that's that was ridiculous pros to do the end. So it's all record. It's the NFL can just say you gotta do this in to twelve I mean to twelve. I mean that's still the over. It's still the over. Okay, So all right, so there's national anthem.

You're recommending over on nationally recommending over. It's even money. Ni Um. How about Gatorade? What color gator dump dolor coach, color of gate color of Gatorade dumped down coach, it's specifically the color dumped of the coach, now the winning coach. Obviously. How many variations are there? Right, Because you know Gatorade could come in many colors. They could mix two colors and now you got like usually usually futia, they put like yellow and green together as one color on the

prop bets Um, do I get a pantone selection? You do get a pantone deck? Yes, you can do that. Um, the Patriots love blue, but they're not here anymore. Nobody else has really had blues since the Patriots. Eagles were yellow the last couple of years Broncos were orange. So there's video of Andy Reid in week fifteen on the sideline drinking yellow slash green gatorade the lemon lime flavor. I'm sure lemon green, so it looks like mountain dew we're looking at. So if you are looking at the

Chiefs winning, you're going yellow green for Andy Reid? What does that pay? Because there's gotta be a bunch of colors, right I I don't have the exact odds in front of me on that one, unfortunately. But or orange for the moderns, Niners or winners drink orange, why do you know the according to some unfounded So I'm like, can I believe this? But I've seen enough where they're like, yep,

the Niners are totally on orange Gatorade. And unless everybody's gonna mix up the stuff here, I don't think you want to mess with success in the Super Bowl. You're not changing gatorade flavors at the Super Bowl. So I'm I'm on orange and I'm on yellow green yep. Final answer, all right, I like it that I would never have thought. I like to you have done a little research or at least your your piggybacking off of other unsubstantiated internet reports.

If you want to go heads and tails in the coin toss, tails, is uh five of the less six the super Bowl? Really? Yeah? Yeah? How about this? The last five winners of the coin toss lost the super Bowl? Hmm? Interesting? Okay, um, And I wonder if they all deferred. I'm sure they did. Maybe Chiefs have never won a coin toss and a super Bowl to San Francisco's four and two and super Bowl coin tosses. But apparently you want to lose because the winners keep losing. Kansas City wins the toss. By losing,

they're gonna win the super Bowl. You've got a crazy prop bet sheet that people can use for their Super Bowl parties. Everybody gets to fill out a bunch check a bunch of boxes on a bunch of some Some of the bets are exotic, some of them are traditional, and then you can score that and use that as a much more enjoyable thing in your Super Bowl and then just doing the ten by ten squares, so it's thirty seven questions, which seems like a lot, but they're

they're pretty clear. They're multiple choice there. They're all multiple choice. So, um, a lot of them have to do with, you know, the halftime show, Super Bowl ads, the coin toss, the national anthem, uh, stuff that anybody can get right. And then there there are in game ones as well. I try to pack most of the the in game ones into the first half of play so by the time the second half happens, you can kind of sit down

and relax and settle in the game. And then the the last couple of questions are you know, end game scenarios. So it's a pretty fun little thing. I've been doing it for ten years. Uh. There's a link to it pinned to my profile on Twitter. So if you go to twitter dot com, slash explosive output twitter dot com you say yes, really okay. At Explosive Explosive Out, you'll find links to Matt's Super Bowl sheet and I think you charge five bucks or something six bucks and then

people can just photocopy and do whatever they want. It's five fifty four through Thursday, five four specific four cents for fifty super Bowl fifty four. It's going up a buck on Friday and then another buck on Saturday, and then another buck on Sunday. So order early, all right, order now? Yeah? Okay, good job Hattie, Hattie. I hope I think Hattie made us. I think we got some winding in the background. Eddie, do you want to say anything made a made appearance? Yeah, good job Hattie. Oh,

Pattie's absurdly cute. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be back after the Super Bowl with more Fantasy Football Weekly and we'll really start diving into offseason mode. We'll start talking about free agents, will be talking about offseason moves. We're talking about news from around the league. We'll be talked starting to look at variations of gameplay. We're talking about best ball, We'll be talking rookies. It's just you know,

we got stories from the Combine. Yeah, I'm going to the Combine in a month and we'll be talking about that. It's hard to believe a month from now we already in like, you know, heavy offseason mode. If they fall on draft mode, yeah, it really is. It's that fast. Um. By the way of prop bets, over what where would you set the over under of number of NFL drafted players that are in the Fountain of Bollaggio that either jump in or fall in to the during the draft.

Where would you set it. I don't think it's gonna fall into the couple are going to jump in though, just out of excitement, insuberants and stuff. Yeah, it could be fun. One and a half. That'd be fun. You know. A drowning would really be something that most people would not see coming at the NFL Draft. He was a promising prospect but drowned in the row on draft day. Thanks for listening, everybody, We'll we'll talk to you in a week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I

Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.