Risk-Reward Players

more weeks too. And yeah, in our industries, this is when people start banking vacation. So yeah, that's what happens. What am I I'm I'm doing something wrong. Yeah, you're the guy that right, the guy not doing the vacations right. Well, it's because guarante league season is is upon us, so that's probably a good chunk of it. Anyway, you want to work in the fantasy industry, it's pretty much a seven day gig, and people celebrate the weekend in season.

You're like, there's no such thing as the weekend. Now, people be like, what are you doing for the weekend? Like, yeah, working, that's what I'm doing. That's like the week start. Yes, yeah, the week's never end. Yes, this week we're talking about high risk, high reward players. These are players with big upside, big downside, and the players that can make or break your roster. We're gonna identify for each of us a player in each position we believe represents high risk, high reward.

But before we get into the specific players in in redraft, how many of these kinds of players do you want on your team? What is your risk profile look like? You know, if you took nothing but these players, it's probably gonna blow up on you because there's too much risk that you put onto your roster. It's like hitting basically right, Yeah, yeah, you know, maybe they all work out brilliantly, or maybe you can get. So we're gonna give out I'm giving out four, you're giving out for

We're gonna give out eight. If you put six of the eight on your roster, you're probably it's probably not gonna work out. If you can't get, you're not gonna get six out of six or five out of six, And a couple of those guys are gonna torpedo. But what do you think is the right kind of answer with your willingness to put these high risk high reward players on roster twenty percent. You gotta have some upside,

You gotta swing for the fences. Certain positions you certainly don't want to take high risk or high risk players from the same team, like quarterback wide receiver, because are if that quarterback goes down, he's taking the receiver with them. That's definitely more of a best ball mentality you can afford when you're not setting your lineup when the you know it's getting set. I got a quarterback receiver combo,

I'll be telling right about. Yeah, you have to say which one you would if if you were forced to pick one, who who would be the quarterback? To me? Is the position where I'm most willing to take chances because in a one quarterback league you can get another quarterback if it doesn't work out for your high risk guy. Is there's somebody to pivot to that you can find more easily in single quarterback And so for me, that's

the one. You know, if if I were to id to just positionally say where am I going to put my risk? I love putting risk into high upside quarterbacks. Uh to that point, let's use that as our as our starting off point. Who is your high risk, high reward quarterback. Well, you can tell me if you'd like to take the chance on Aaron Rodgers, who getting drafted

around QB twelve thirteen, definitely later than previous season. The last decade he hasn't gone that lot, but that's still kind of a significant investment based on how deep quarterback is again just like last year, and the risk with Rodgers is, really he has his worst season as a pro, and why would that happen outside of his age. I don't think I'm not really factoring his age as much here, but going back to Davante Adams was his leading wide

receiver he gone from. Going back to eleven, he was either Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, and he had both of them in their prime, so he had two amazing options. In ten. Will go back that for it was Greg jennings Head twelve hundred plus yards and twelve touchdowns. I think you get where I'm going with this, DoD the Packers have a wide receiver on any of those players level right now, it doesn't appear to be unless Christian Watson turns out to be a great receiver or Alan Lazard,

which I'm not buying into that. All Art is not a great receiver, no, and Sammy Watkins certainly not reliable. He he'ld be great week one. We know that for sure. But that's about it. And yeah, they have Randall cop but he's now a hundred years old in football years. So that's the risk and the reward is you know, Rogers works with what he's got and he has another typical four thousand yard, forty touchdown season, which is a

bar in at quarterback twelve. But uh, I'm leaning he's more risky than a reward e. I know that's not a word, but so I'm kind of out on Rogers. But there is sil reward there because he is one of the most talented quarterbacks in NFL history. But what's the downside that he brings? If you numerically give me give me your worst. You know, if he plays, if he plays all seventeen games, where do you think his downside lines statistically for Aaron Rodgers. You know, it's a

down here for him. If he's at thirty touchdowns, that would be yards in Green Bay. But that's a good defense and they got two very good running backs. Granted, Inner Jones is a good receiving back, but they become a you know, a run heavier, run heavier team. They've always been passed first, basically Roger's whole career. So see how it plays out. But I'm kind of I'm kind of avoiding Rogers, but there is still upside there, my

high risk, high reward quarterback. And I almost Jalen Hurts here, but I didn't just because I think he's more of a known quantity than Trey Lance, who could go the pendulum swing on tray Lance, I think is bigger than any order back in this year's fantasy draft. So the risk side of Trey Lance just the nineteen college starts. He had the one full game last year when he had to fill in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo, and that was a disheartening effort that saw San Francisco score

just ten points against the Cardinals. In that game. With Trey Lance at the helm, you've got the Deebo Samuel possible holdout working against Trey Lance. And it's very possible that Tray Lance just isn't a very good quarterback or isn't a very good passer at this level. We don't know yet. He could be benched for Jimmy Garoppolo. His he might not even be the starter week one if if he struggles all preseason, Garoppolo comes in and plays all right. The downside on Trey Lance is literally no

fantasy points all year. Yeah, I mean, for those who don't know, he's a small school quarterback north to State. Steve McNair was a small school quarterback Alcorn State. Call that, and he turned out at right. But there's a risk in that, you know, But I don't find that too much. Let's talk about the reward for tray Lance. He's got top five level upside if everything comes together. A lot of it is because of his unbelievable rushing ability. He brings to the table a rushing skill set that isn't

it is equivalent roughly to Jalen Hurts. Maybe not quite at the Lamar Jackson level of elusiveness, but he probably has more just straight line speed. He is fast, and in that one full game last year that tray Lance played, they gave him eleven designed runs and then he scrambled five more times for ninety rushing yards in his one full start. And the fact that Kyle Shanahan, who obviously

never runs. Jimmy Garoppolo gave him eleven designed runs. Very very promising for Tray Lance as a runner on a very small set sample sample set of just that one game to a Lance has a monster arm that can unlock it downfield passing attack that Jimmy Garoppolo has been totally unable to do. Garoppolo's worst feature as an NFL quarterbacks is downfield passing. This might be Trey Lance's best feature downfield passing. He could have some deep connections that

can produce massive fantasy events. And then, lastly, the other part of the rewards in here for Trey Lances, just get the ball in the hands of guys like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon are you but hopefully not on handoffs. Hopefully don't. That's all right? Throw yes, specifically for Deebo Samuel. Um,

you roll all that together. If he can rush for nine yards like he did in this one game, Um, and he can be throwing deep downfield passes, you get a connection or to a game and next thing you know, you're like two or fifty yards, a couple of touchdowns through the air and ninety brushing yards and you know the period of rushing touchdown and now Trey Lance is in the conversation for a top five scoring fan see quarterback. I'm with you. I like the upside there for sure.

Let's go to our high risk, high reward running backs. Who is your running back, Brian, one of your about the ten years I've known you. One of the biggest man crushes you've had in uh over the last decade Ezekiel Elliott, who is now going as RB sixteen, which is way later than previous years. Um. And the risk there is you get the Zeke from the last two seasons who finished and eighteenth in Fantasy points per game. Uh Now, you only missed two games during that span.

He's been durable, even though he's been banged up. But when your points per game are that low, it almost hurts you more than it helps you. So but the market is adjusted again going to RB sixteen, he was a couple of years ago he was maybe the RB one, and then he was RB ten last year. Uh So I think it's a great time to buy the dip because of the rewards. You get vintage Zeke from nineteen back to his rookie year, who he kind of looked like early on last season, he had a bad Week one.

Uh he finished his RB forty five without he had Tampa Bay like top rush defense in the league. Then after that week to RB seven, then RB one, RB six, RB seven in week five, then in Week six he was RB fifteen. But that's when he got hurt, and not hurt enough to miss games, but he was banged up for the duration of the season with ankle knee issues.

Before he was injured, though, he was averaging more than five yards per carry and that's with o line issues that Dallas was having a bunch of them last year, whether it was injury or suspension. Um but hopefully those are cleared up. And offseason reports for Zeke had been very positive, saying he's arguably in the bust. I haven't seen any topless photos yet, but he should be healthy'll be out there, I'm sure. Uh yeah, they'll be flashing

the abs for sure, but uh, I don't know. At RB sixteen, I think he could return to that top five running back for him, So I'm leaning more to the reward side that uh I like for Zeke this here more so than the risk. Tony Pollard is always there and college is good. And we've talked you and I've talked a lot about this. We love Pollard, we love Pollard, and Pollard isn't going anywhere, and I think that provides it just to me, that limits the ceiling.

But he's not going anywhere either with how much money they're paying him, and they almost have to justify that ridiculous contract. And they've talked about using Pollard more as a slot receiver, so we might see them both on the field. That stuff never pans out. Man, all the all the preseason playing out of position talk of the time does not come to fruition. You know, the Cordell Patterson's of the world. That's rare, super rare. By the way,

do you hear this? Yeah, who's turned off his position? His dual position. They're just going running back in Corderell Patterson And I've done that for all all players don't know because they you know, I remember Taysom Hill was quarterback tight end. The most famous was Marcus Colston. Why does he yes? That was he was a cheap code for sure, like six whenever that was. It's um, I I'm cool with it, especially when you're making that call. Now you know, the league's got time to adapt, you know,

he has. We're calling he's playing running back. He is. He's playing running back mostly. And the drafted Drake brought in Brian Edwards, Audentates and they got a couple of other guys and you know, almost every week Kyle Pitts is essentially a wide receiver. So yes, yeah, c P eighty four is a running back. My high risk, ky reward running back is Cam Acres. Let's start with the

risk side on Cam Acers. No NFL running back has had a successful return from a torn achilles and by successful, I mean like you're back to most of what you were before. In almost every case, you don't even get close to what you were before, and in many cases you're completely out of the league. Acres will try to

become the first ever running back to do it. And I've touched on Acres before in different conversations that we've had, but I think i've really I'm really going to drill down on on the risk and reward side for Acres now. Upon returning last year, his play was completely uninspiring. And you know, granted it was a quick return on a

devastating injury, but just hear me out. His yards per carry in the four games that he had at the end of the year after the Achilles injury was zero point six yards per carry three point two, two point zero, three point seven and one point six. I think that was five games. That nets out to an average of two point four yards per carry, and his PFF grade

through the playoffs was forty four. Not good. Six months later, we presume that cam Akers is going to be a healthier and better runner, but history suggests that's not a safe assumption whatsoever. The historic best case that I can find on an achilles on the next year back is Edgar Bennett, who had a two touchdown, six hundred rushing yard game season in three and a half yards per carry, and then he quit football. He knew he was cooked. Cardenal, Nope,

I want to try again. Packers, Packers Um. A number of other promising runners have had their careers completely halted by the Achilles. Lendel White not that long ago. Mickel was sure you remember that name, Lions. He had a gigantic rookie year and everybody's like year, Dude's gonna be great, and then uh he had the torn achilles. Uh. Andre Brown. You might remember Brian in particular New York Giants had a big rookie season. He was another I almost positive rookie,

and he never played again, never played again. So you're downside with cam Akers is it's dramatic. It could be potential, like way lower than anybody's talking about five yards two touchdowns, you know, very very light use, uh, losing his job. It's it could be bad. I'm not going to really suggest that there's retirement downside, but that's not a zero percent chance either. Because this injury, the Achilles injury, people

have retired on it in the past. Now you might say, Met and I did a little digging on this Achilles bit. With medically, we've come so far that in the era of Edgar Bennett twenty years ago, who cares. But it turns out this injury just doesn't have that much advancements in it. It just sort of is what it is. We reattached the tendon and we go um. The only thing that medicine has done is it allowed can makers to come back faster, but not necessarily better. So you're

downside with Acres is extremely low. Let's talk upside. He's the presumed starter for a high functioning offense with one of the best head coaches in the game. There's that, Um, Sean mcveigh's awesome in In mcveigh's tenure, going back to seventeen, Rams running backs have averaged as a group, all of them together. Their average season for the Rams running backs is two thousand, fifty yards and eighteen touchdowns. Yeah, but

that's a lot of prime. There's a couple of there's a couple of years of prime tied Gurley in there, but there's also a couple of years of there was the season after that where he felt the cliff and didn't have anybody else, and there's been some in last season was a down year for their runners too. If Acres is gonna get if Acres comes back well enough to earn say seventy of the workload on two thousand

yards and eighteen touchdowns, okay, well I'm in. That's four yards and twelve and a half touchdowns, So you know I'm in at that point, Um, And the worst any Sean McVeigh team has ever finished in yards or points is twelve and they average seventh in points and seventh and yards. He just that offense is almost certainly going to be good, and he'd be the presumed lead running back because there isn't that much else. Darryl Henderson proved him self last year to be very ordinary and fifth

round rookie Hirron Williams does not look like a workhorse back. No, he's more of a receiving threat. And Henderson grant he was injured early and came back and was he came back sooner than most expected for the playoff run too so, and his injury was not as severe as a torn achilles. And Henderson was not even a reliable week week, week to week starter. And then this a very good, a super Bowl caliber Rams offense last year. So we're all

that together. You've got a lot of You've got a ton of risk and a ton of reward for cam Akers. So in my drafting experience so far, you'll you'll find Acres and Zeke pretty much right, mecancany who take Zeke all the way? No way do I risk the torn achilles. Let's take a break, and when we come back, let's talk about our high risk, high reward wide receivers and tight ends. His Fantasy Football Weekly continues Welcome back Fantasy

Football Weekly Paul Charting, Brian Johnson reminder. Four ways to play at Guillotine Leagues dot com. You can join a private league with your friends between eight and eighteen people. More players you have, the longer the fund goes on farther you go into the season. Public leagues play for cash, public contests guillotean Leagues dot com. Uh, if you want to play high stakes super Chop, We've got a fifteen thousand dollar grand prize option at super Chop at Guillotine

leagues dot com. And then the new way to play. If you'd never want to get chopped, do you want to make sure you play all season long Zombie mode when instead of getting chopped, you become a zombie joined the zombie Horde trying to take down the human survivors. I'm excited to try that. Yes, you can't wait to try it? All right, Let's let's move on to our high risk, high reward wide receivers. Who are you starting with?

I got lacks the Los Angeles Chargers Mike Williams, who in best Ball has climbed up to wide receiver thirteen and ADP, which is very high. That's also very best ball. He's always been that guy high risk, high reward output on a game by game basis. Yeah, but I still think in redraft you'll see him at least inside the top fifteen, just based on his upside, which we'll get to.

But uh, let's start with the risk, and the risk is you get the version of Mike Williams who averaged three catches for thirty seven scoreless yards and eight of his sixteen games last year. Yeah, he was just a killer if you had him starting in your starting lineup and a disaster and guillotine leagues by the way, because when he does, he does hard. Next thing, you know,

you're chopped. And yeah, it almost seems like a lot of his games alternated from big game, so you're like, oh, I gotta start him this week and then he kills you.

But but the reward is is, uh, he serves Keenan Allen as the wide receiver one in l A and is a top five Fantasy wide receiver because in the other eight games he played last year he scored at least once, he had multiple multiple touchdown games h end or top two hundred yards and the other half games he played, so he's kind of a it's a fifty. It's a coin flip of a player, but it's an elite offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the game up and coming. Him young quarterback they do like,

and they paid him a lot of money too. They extended him, so some people thought they're gonna let him walk the Chargers, but uh, they did renew his contract. Um. There is competition though for targets. They like Joshua Palmer, uh fair amount. He's might he might be my number one sleeper this year. You're gonna hear me talking about him a lot. I like his prospects for his December.

His December was way better than most people remember. And if that's a harbinger of this season to come, Palmer is is gonna be a really sneaky pick for people. So for me, I think that the risk still kind of outweighs the reward and that I don't think Keenan Allen is washed by any means. You know, Austin Ekel or Asaiah Spiller are going to soak up some targets par Donald Parham and I'm so mad they brought in Gerald.

Everybody still think Parum could be the top title. I don't think the season is gonna start that way, but uh, for me, the asking price is too high right now. For Williams, I might I'll take some flyers in best ball and I have, but when it comes to re draft, on out. So I see him dominate for the majority of the season, not not a split. Talked about this on a previous Fantasy Football Weekly is about Mike Williams.

I don't like guys that had one really good season and it was the season in which they got paid their contract or season. Was there one season where it all seemed to come together and it Maybe Williams is young enough. It could be that that season is exactly who's going to be going forward, at which point he would he'd Mike Williams would be worth this draft spot or he got paid. I he's fat and happy, and uh, you know, I thought he would have missed more games.

We've only missed a handful over the last three years. But he's always been on the report and like, your shocked that he's actually playing, Uh come game day, So yeah, I'm out. My high risk, high reward wide receiver is dk Metcalf. Let's talk about the risks first, and it's obvious what the big risk is here his quarterbacks. We don't know that there is a functional passer on the

Seahawks roster. There's Drew Lock, there's Geno Smith. Can they get any can those two really power consistent production to any wide receive? And even if they trade for Baker Mayfield, which has kind of been a swirling rumor that it's not that much of an upgrade, in my opinion, I think he'd be. It would be I don't know about a massive that would be on the reward side of

the risk reward coin. The The other part of the risk with DK Metcalf is, you know, even with good quarterbacking, dud games have always plagued Metcalf and he's viewed large as a touchdown dependent wide receiver because he is. He's failed to score in exactly half his games, which is actually pretty good. The fact that he has scored in half of his games and a young career is very good. Um, but in those non scoring games, he averages being wide

receiver fifty four at nine PPR points. That hurts. That hurts. So what happens if his touchdowns dry up? With bad quarterbacking? Gino Smith? His career he is a zero point eight touchdown passes per game quarterback zero point eight. Drew Lock's career is exactly a one touchdown per game career. So if if I'm telling you when Dk Metcalf doesn't score, he's usually wide receiver fifty four and his court, his

touchdown numbers probably reverse and go far fewer. With Gino Smith and Drew Lock, that's some real risk for DK Metcalf. Let's talk about the reward side. Gino Smith fed Metcalf in his games as a starter last year. Medcalf was a top ten wide receiver three times in Smith's three and a half game appearances. You would never have guessed it. Smith's play was actually competent. He had the exact same

PF grade in his three and a half games. He had the exact same PF grade as Russell Wilson last year. I think if the Seahawks stand pat at quarterback with with Smith and Lock, I think Smith and Smith the job in Week one. I do too. Um, Seattle could trade for a better quarterback. You know you mentioned Baker Mayfield. It could be Jimmy Garoppolo, although I think it's unlikely that they would trade in division, but um, it would

probably Baker Mayfield. Maybe Drew Lock gets better with different coaching that could provide some Maybe there's a glimmer of upside for Drew Lock, but I don't think that's the case. And there's this reason for reward as well for DK Metcalf. He's just a freaking beast who's God given abilities can keep him Fantasy relevant even with in consistent quarterbacking. He's just a special player. He still can't do the three cone drill though, God forbid. So there's your risk reward

on DK Metcalf. Let's go to your risk reward. Tight End Detroit's t J. Hockenson, who is going around tight Ends seven right now. Uh. He was a Doctor Jekyll and Mr Hyde last year for sure, And I want to make sure you get this right. Mr Hyde is like the evil side of that Dctor Jekyll is the good guy, right. I got my notes, But that's what I figured. It's been a while since i've I've never read it. I don't think I have either, but I

might have seen the play or I don't know. Anyway, you get the risk is you get the Mr Hyde side of t J. Hogginsen In half of his games played, he averaged three point three catches for twenty nine scoreless yards. And to make matters worse, he also missed five games. So that's he's somewhat injury prone. Um. He did play all sixteen games in twenty but he did miss four games his rookie year in uh. But still so twelve games play last year half, we're absolute garbage killed you.

He was the guy I feel like we talked about a lot on shop as one of the top chop tight ends a lot uh, whether he was injured or having a bad game, but the reward is you get the Dr Jekyl side who we saw primarily early on in the year UM, which was kind of odd because there was more competition for targets then later in the season. But the receivers are still up right then. But after the first three weeks we were talking about him is like the top is he's gonna be the tight end

one one. Uh. He in his in those six games played, the other six games played, he scored end or top seventy yards and all of them And that's great production. And if you get that on a consistent basis at tight end seven right now, uh, going multiple rounds after the Darren Wallers, the George Kittles, and the Darren Uh. Darren Schultz is of the world, not not Darren Schultz. Dalton shows my bad. Uh. That's that's a huge payoff.

But for me, again, it's I feel like most of my players outside his Zeke, I think the risk kind of outweighs the reward for me, especially after they've drafted James and Williams at wide receiver, and though he might not be ready to start Week one, I think there's just a ton of competition for targets. And I don't think we're gonna see that Mr Hyde version of Hockinson as much as the Doctor jekylls. You won't see the

Dr Jacky side. I really shouldn't have gone with. The problem is the way you said him is the opposite way that you did him, and whatever it's it is, it's confusing. That's what I'm saying. We know what you're talking about. My high rose, high reward tight end is George Kittle. Now your risk side goes like this. He's never topped six touchdowns in a season. Pat Fryarmouth had seven as a rookie last year, so he's never been

a touchdown score, reliable touchdown score. A lot of injuries in three straight years, and I played through a lot of the injuries last year, but he clearly looked limited in a lot of his games. People starting to call him George Brittle. There's something to do that, something to that? Uh, And then I wouldn't say to his face though, that's for sure, I wouldn't either then dud games or another

problem for George Kittle. He played fourteen games last year out of the seventeen eleven of his fourteen games he earned single digit PPR points last year for George Kettle. And the other risk factor is Trey Lance. What if what if Tray Lance doesn't come along? You know, we

we outlined Trey Lancer earlier. I told you, I told you had to receiver quarterback Combo coming here's the receiver tight end now presumably and especially if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo and they just put all their chips in on Trey Lance and what if he what if you bust? Then? What now the risk? That's the risk side, the reward side for George Kittle. Quickly on the side still um and maybe more it's it's great for reality football, but it's a curse and fantasy football. He's such a good blocker.

And if you say, if they they draw up all these designed runs for Trey Lance, we're gonna see a ton of blocking by Kittle, that could be it could be good. Point alright, So the rewards one of the great yard after catch tight ends in recent memory. He is so good after the catch. In George Kittle's last full healthy season, he was fifth in the entire league including wide receivers, in yards after catch at seven and a half per Probably if you took a poll of

defensive backs, even linebackers, he's the top tight end. You don't want to see. It could be. Uh. He also finished fourth overall and catch percentage in nineteen, again his last full healthy season for George Kittle. If Deebo Samuel gets himself out of out of San Francisco, which is possible, I don't think it will happen, but it's possible. Kittle's target chair could vault up as well. And he is capable of amazing games. Last year he had a two

game stretch. It's like Week ten eleven with these are two games, these are two game numbers. Twenty seven targets, twenty two receptions, three hundred thirty two yards and three touchdowns act to back gigantic games. And if what if Trey Lances? What if Trey Lance is great? What if he's got the big arm and he's that big arm is opening up the middle of the field for a great tight end A little bit like Patrick Mahomes's arm

strength helped unlock Travis Kelsey. And I'm not saying Trey Lance can be Patrick Mahomes, but just from an armed strength standpoint, only Mahomes ability to heave those deep down field passes too well. Variety of players, mostly Tyreek Hill, really did help open up the field for Travis Kelsey, and it could do Trey Lance. If that big arm is working, that could happen for George Kettle too. I'm very intrigued to see how this San Francisco offense plays out.

Quite interesting. It's so tempting to invest in him, so tempting. Um I kind of I kind of like doing a if Garoppolo stays and by if Garopolo does stay, that makes Kittle a lot safer because we already know that we already know that what key that he can be a very good fantasy tight end in a Garoppolo led offense. If he's still there, I do there's something to be said for doing a Trey Lance George Kittle combo draft. This is somewhat out of context with just another team.

I can't wait to watch is uh Atlanta with Mariota, see if he can revive his career and Kyle Pitts of course, and we mentioned Cordarell Patterson earlier. Drake Wondon has some promise. Who leads the team in rushing yards. I don't think it's gonna be the rookie l gear Proley Patterson. I mean it should be the Patterson then you know, then who knows? I mean, he's hasn't been partaking in mini camp. They're just trying to keep him fresh. That's kind of they're saying. That's why he fell off.

He just wasn't used to being a running back. Now they're trying to ramp him up. Is a durance and all that we'll see, but uh, I can't wait to see that non zero chance it's Mariotta. Oh, there's definitely remember Ryan Fitzpatrick lead the Dolphins in rushing like to two years ago. Well, I'm sure Michael Vick led the no doubt, it wouldn't be the first time in the quarterback kick down there exactly. UM, all right, thank you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. We'll be back next week.

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