Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now, here's your host, Paul Chargian.
Hey, everybody, welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Charchian my co host today Kent, Whyrock, Hey Kent, good to have you back.
Ay Ball, how are we doing. Glad to be back, and you know, we wrapped up the divisions and now we get to explore some other fun stuff.
Yeah, we're gonna have a great time today. Really excited for this show because we're going to talk about the last pick of your draft. You know, we focus on the rest of your draft almost exclusively. We don't talk that much about the last pick now. And this is a little bit different than sleepers. Everybody does sleeper stuff. That's not frankly all that comment uncommon at all. But
anything could be a sleeper. In my definition of sleeper, Kent, if a third rounder who can perform like a first rounder, to me, constitutes a sleeper, not a you know, not a big one. It doesn't have you know, it could be an eighth rounder performs like a third rounder. So for me, this is a little bit different. This is finding a guy who can help you on the last pick of the draft, and that to me is a is a little it's orders of magnitude harder than just sleepers.
Absolutely and sleepers. It's you know, it's like people are asleep at the wheel about their value. That's kind of the way to think about it. It's not just late round guys. It mostly is just because that's kind of the nature of how people are sleeping on players. But this is so interesting because you know, when we're talking about you know, and I know we pulled a lot of this from you know, like best ball data, because
that's what we got right now. But we're getting into redraft season and those last couple of picks, they can either be dynamite or you just cut them week one or week two, and that's fine. But if you find that late, it's a big turnaround in terms of value.
All right, Well, let's talk philosophically. Ken, With the last pick of your draft, would you rather find somebody who has who could drop, who has a small percentage chance but could end up being explosively good, or you just looking with that last pick of your draft to find a guy you can keep on your bench and just like start them two times during the year, three times during the year, and somebody that can just like fill a void. Do you understand the distinction I'm trying to make.
Here, Yeah. Absolutely, And I'm looking for upside. I'm looking for the bowl case on all these guys, because you know, on any given week, you can probably depending on your league settings, find a guy who can start on the waiver wire. It's not gonna be great, it'll be in a pinch, it'll be a you know, seven point outing or something like that, but you could find someone who can fill a gap pretty simply. It's it's that upside.
It's that that crazy, like you win your league off of it type stuff that I think we're really shooting.
For here, yep. And you're gonna see that in the six players you're gonna hear about. I think all have the possibility of turning into if the situation's break right. And obviously we're talking last pick your draft, so none of these none of these things are likely, but they were, they wouldn't be the last picks. But if things break right, these could all be massive contributors. And in most formats, not Guillotine. Most formats, Kent, you have to shoot for
tip of the spear. You have to be the best of ten teams or the best of twelve teams. You have to get a couple of these breaks to go your way. Guillotine's different where you're just looking to survive every week. That's a very different model. Here. You have to get in a traditional league, most leagues, best ball. You just got to get some breaks, and these are guys that could potentially help you. Now I know Kent people are fascinated to learn the many travails of my
move and where am I geographically in my house. This has been a roving discuss every week we talk about where I am now. I've done shows from the closet, I've done shows from u from my living room, I've done shows from my kitchen. This I'm now office. I'm I now have the Utah office going. But the movers showed up with the second half of my stuff two weeks late, and everything's in boxes. So I'm right now,
I've got You can't see all the stuff. It's all just it's all pandemonium here, boxes and stuff's all on. You know, nothing's out, I do anything set up, don't have any of the sound dampening in my office that I want to have yet. So there's your there's just a quick update right now you get you can see it.
We need where in the world is Paul Chargion drop for for what's going on right now?
Yeah, we really do. You're too young to remember Carmen san Diego.
I saw glimpses. I won't say I was any kind of a devout viewer, but it was around. Yeah.
So now the fact that you even went to the viewer before the video game shows you.
Right, Okay, that's a fair call out.
Yeah, the the karma. Where in the World Is Carmen san Diego started its life as a edgeywear title. It was a video game from the nineteenth like late eighties or early nineties, I'm going to go early nineties, and it spun off into a TV show and the TV show did great. It was on for many, many years, and you learned about the geography of all these different places as Carmen san Diego rent around the world and you're trying to track her down. And although I think
Carmen could be a guy too. I think he didn't know for sure if you were tracking a man or a woman.
But yeah, the old days, well today we're tracking down some late round darts.
Yeah, nice transition right there. Do you want to go? Let's have you go first. Who's the first last pick of your draft? Kent?
My first last pick is going to be Roshan Johnson, running back for the Chicago Bears. And you know it's not a sexy name. He hasn't really been a huge producer over the last few years. In fact, he's somewhat struggled at times, and so you know that's kind of the reason why his ADP is where it is right now. But there is a new head coach in town, Ben Johnson. He was the latest and greatest in offensive coaches to
pick up a head coaching gig. And you know he's coming from the Detroit Lions, where he had DeAndre Swift on his team back in twenty twenty two. Bench. Yeah, he certainly did. But one thing to note is that Ben Johnson's rush touchdown league ranks as an OC They're gonna be third, first, and second in the league. He's never been below third.
Yeah, and so now and wait, let me just let me jump in right there. Ken, that's without Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts on his team. I mean, those quarterbacks have to be in. I mean, I gotta believe number one and number two teams are probably Philadelphia and Buffalo in those years because of the quarterbacks that are housing ten, twelve, fourteen touchdowns each up close. Ben Johnson's not doing that with Jared Goff.
Nope, not too often. He doesn't sometimes, but he's certainly not a guy known for his legs, So we could go that route. But yeah, you might recall that back in twenty twenty two was actually the Jamal Williams year. He had two hundred and sixty two attempts, one thousand plus rushing yards, and seventeen rushing touchdowns.
Which is unbelievable.
I think more than the rest of his career combined. I don't have the number off the top of my head, but it was a big chunk of his overall rushing
touchdown percentage. And DeAndre Swift missed three games and he didn't even get to one hundred attempts on the ground, five hundred and forty two rush yards and only five touchdowns, So you know the fact that he Ben Johnson that is leaned into the usage of Jamal Williams that year is pretty stark in terms of comparing to DeAndre Swift, who we thought was kind of an up and coming guy at the time, and that was his first I think,
like real down year and it's been kind of sketchy since. So, you know, real quick size comparison, I think is an important distinction here because we're talking about Roshan Johnson, who is six foot two hundred and twenty five pounds. Wow, Jamal Williams is six foot two hundred twenty four pounds, So if you'll allow me the one pound leeway, I can say they're pretty much the exact same size. And
then Swift's a smaller guy. He's have five to nine two and fifteen pounds, So if we're looking for a one to one replacement of what he accomplished with Jamal Williams, I would rather look Roshan Johnson's way for that touchdown goal line potential. And you know last year his yards per carry, which I think a lot of people look at that's a very common stat It was two point seven. I say, we can just ignore it because he was almost exclusively used in short yardage situations last year and
that's going to affect your yards per carry. And yeah, I was thirty eight percent of his carries were in one to three yard situations, right, and so in gold to gost situations, Roshan Johnson scored six out of excuse me, all six of his touchdowns on just seven attempts. So he scored on six out of seven gold to goes. That's really good stuff. That's the type of scoring potential that head coaches and offense coordinators love. They want the guy who can get into the pay dirt and score
the points for the teams. So if they're looking to someone in the red zone at the one to five yard line, Roshan Johnson I think is a better person to look into than DeAndre Swift is who I think we all thought were going to sign a free agent running back didn't ever get one. So it's just Roshan
Johnson Jeandre Swift. There there is a little bit of like camp height, and I know you've talked about Kyle Mnunguy, but he's a seventh rounder, a smaller So if he's going to replace anyone I would wager he's going to replace Swift and then they'll just have to figure out something with the receiving work. But I think if you're looking for that big bruiser goal line back, Roshan Johnson's the guy, and at Ben Johnson, who Johnson and Johnson,
we got something going there can come to fruition. This could be a ten plus touchdown season for Roshan.
I could see it. I think that's a defensible case. The offensive line got way better between the guards and Roshan Johnson. Ten touchdowns would not surprise me. I like it. That makes a ton of sense. My guy is less probable for ten touchdowns by a fair margin. I'm going with my first last pick of the draft. I am ta And by the way, I should note each of these players has to be from round fourteen or lower to constitute last pick of the draft. I think most
leagues are at least fourteen players. Summer way bigger than fourteen. I don't love that, but that's just me. So he had to be at least pick one hundred and sixty eight to qualify. My guy's quite a bit below that. And it's New Orleans running back Devin Neil the rookie. He was Thor's number six running back when we checked in with Thor on this show shortly before the draft on the running back position. And I think the State Saints got just a steal taken Devin Neil in the
sixth round. You know, Alvin Kamara last year absolutely played gallantly in the face of zero quarterbacking, no healthy receivers, and a absolutely beat up offensive line. You know, Kamara is sitting on two thousand, two hundred career touches. He turns thirty next month. He has had a ton of work. And if anything were to happen to Kamara, or if they just don't want to use him as much, the depth charts really thick in Kendrey Miller and Clyde Edwards Hilaire.
Kendray Miller couldn't get on the field last year when they needed to spell, they needed to spell Kamara a lot. Kendrey Miller was a non factor for most of the last year, although also hurt for much of the year. Clyde Edwards Hilaire obviously cut by the Chiefs. Neil could easily win the backup job, and stylistically he's the closest player to Alvin Kamara the Saints have on the roster. He's slow where Kamara's really fast, but otherwise he's super shifty.
He's got amazing footwork. His vision is tremendous. If a cutback lane opens up, Devin Neil's gonna find it and he can catch fifty one receptions the last two years at Kansas. So Devin Neils is that shot in the dark. We don't wish bad things on any player, especially injury, including Alvin Kamara, but if anything were to happen there or they just need to spell Camara more than they have in the past, Devin Neil at thirty years old, Devin Neil might be an interesting guy.
Yeah, And I know we talked about this a little bit, and I like Alvin Kamara at his value this year because he is going later than he has in years past. But certainly the reason that he's being drafted as late as he is is because of the risk associated with, you know, his health and what the direction is of this team is going to be. I mean, they're still working their way out of a lot of cap problems that they're they're trying to fix, and this is Tyler
Shuck's team for the foreseeable future. It's a very interesting direction for the Saints right now. And so you know, if they do want to find some juice and they're going to look to the guys who can perform regardless of where they got drafted, Devin Neils certainly in line to make a jump later in the year.
All right, let's go to your second last pick of the draft. Kent.
Yeah, so this this one technically abides by our ADP rules ADP rules, But you know, Nick Chubb, the Houston running back, very recently signed. He could climb up in ADP in the in the coming weeks and certainly throughout camp if we hear positive news. But it's a very interesting situation. You know, last year he was turning from
a very gruesome knee injury and repair. He had an MCL and meniscus and then subsequently had his ACL repaired on top of that, so it was a it was a tough road to recovery for him in his running form. And then last year he was looking rough and then started looking a little better and then got a foot fracture in week fifteen, so knocked out once again. Now, luckily foot fractures you can heal from pretty quickly. They're not too bad in terms of altering your running form
or anything like that. So hopefully with one more offseason separated from that terrible knee injury, we can see a little bit more of the Nick Chubb of old. And honestly, last year between the tackles, he was better in advanced metrics than Joe Mixon was, and it's not much, and both of them were technically below expectation. But you know, we've talked about how one of the greatest attributes of
Joe Mixon this year is that there's no competition. Well, if you can get Nick Chubb coming back to seventy five eighty percent of what he has been in the past, it might not be what you'd love out of Nick job, but it's certainly competition. It's certainly more than dari Ogumwallee and certainly more than Damian Pierce. So hey, careful, it's careful, Faul. Yeah, you know, I understand where you're coming from.
I am I'm a Damien Pierce apologist. I always feel like he's been under used, but the rest of it I certainly agree with. Here, let me give you one more thing on mixing that worries me about him ran out of gas last year you could see, yeah, totally. And you know, over his final six games he drooped down to twenty ninth in rushing yards, thirty first in average yards per carry, and twenty fifth in avoided tackle rate.
That's mixin final six games the last year. So now add another year onto the you know, onto his age. He's now twenty nine. He's had twenty three hundred career touches Joe Mixon has and I you know, it might not be Week one when he you know, he falls apart, but at some point you wonder if this coming sea and he's going to have another scenario where he just runs out of gas and they got to go to Nick Chubb.
Yeah, And so you know, this is a team that I think still has pretty good aspirations for the playoffs. Yeah, they might do some load balancing and stuff like that too. So if Nick Jubb is a guy who can end up getting up to like maybe ten touches a game, you know, limited compared to what we've seen in the year's past, that's still enough. If he can bounce back
in terms of his efficiency in his running style. You know, last year the Texans were dead last and rushing success rate second worst, and run block win rate from ESPN. They didn't really fix their offensive line. They've made some changes, but I think one thing they didn't fix it. They made changes, but one thing I do want to call out is that they promoted a new offensive line coach, Cole Popovich just really distantly related to Greg Actually did not know that. Yeah, fun fact I found it out
by doing the research, so that was fun. But that could be a catalyst for some improvement in maybe cohesiveness, if not just talent or ability.
I really want to believe Houston's going to bounce back to the promise that they showed two years ago. They can. Their offensive coordinator, Bobby slok It looked like a genius in the first year. When you know, we're all like, oh my god, c J. Stroud is this is he had one of the best rookie seasons of any quarterback in memory. And to have it all fall apart so quickly, I don't think. I think most of that was on the offensive line, much more than Bobby Sloan. But we've
given you three different running backs. This is not just a running back show we are doing. Last pick of the draft doesn't have to be a running back, although I think running backs it's it's a little frankly, it's it's a little bit easier to make cases for running backs and other position.
They're the tickets.
Absolutely.
If you're looking for a guy to have a quick influx of value, it's almost always running backs. Midway through the year, let.
Me give you a tight end. That's New Orleans tight end Juwan Johnson, who on the surface sounds ultra boring because he has never distinguished himself in the Saints offense, particularly although he's coming off career highs in targets, catches, and receiving yards last year, pretty good numbers. In March, they signed him to a three year, thirty million dollar extension. Ked I'm like Jwan Johnson, but you know what they knew. Taysom Hill's not coming back. He's tore his ACL in December,
it's unclear, and he's thirty four years old. Taysom Hills sneaky old and backup Foster Moreau knee injury in January. He's he was not able to participate in any of the OTAs. His status for training camp is not clear, and he's the backup anyway. Johnson is going to be the number one tight end on a Saints team where they're going to be starting a rookie quarterback, a green quarterback,
no matter what, probably a rookie quarterback. And you know, we love we know rookie quarterbacks love their dump off tight ends, right they own, they get in the pocket, they make their one read, and then they panic and they dump the ball off to their safety valve tight end. It's easy to see Johnson getting a bunch of easy catches in this new Saints offense, and the depth chart, a wide receiver gets real thin, real fast. Yea Chris olave Rashidchi He's gonna try to come back from injury.
And then last thing I'll mention on Juwan Johnson. Kellen Moore's your new head coach and he will be the play caller. He's the one in Stalling's offense. Last year Kellen Moore as Philadelphia's offensive coordinator, Dallas Goddard was tight end eleven in PPR points per game. The previous year he was with the Chargers as their offensive coordinator, they only had Gerald Everard. He was tight end twenty two.
But the year before that he was the Cowboys offensive coordinator and Kellen Moore got Dalton Schultz to tight end seven and got him paid. And so there's some real opportunity in a Kellen Moore offense for Juwan Johnson to make good. As the last pick in your draft.
I'm just wondering who your third Saints player is gonna be.
I know, right, I think I've run out of meaningful Saints right now. There's that we may have app that that as far as it can go.
Yeah, I mean it goes by how the quarterback situation goes. If if we see an emergence of Shuck, then you know this could be absolutely a breakout candidate and someone who that I know a lot of people have had their eyes on Juwan Johnson.
So yeah, I don't think Shuck's gonna break out. Honestly, I think they'll be drafting another quarterback later but next year. But I still think he can catch a bunch of dump off stuff. We'll find out Juan Johnson. All right, Ken, who is your third and final last pick of the draft.
Well, see one play one. I have a tight end as well. No wide receivers now, now that I'm realizing that unless you have one in your up your sleeve here, but my tight end is going to be New York Giants tight end Theo Johnson, and Theo Johnson's an interesting case. He's definitely under the radar. I think he might be one of the lowest ones in terms of ADP right now, and so he's very much like the mister irrelevant of
your fantasy football draft. He came out of college playing behind Brenton Strange, who had a nice little, you know, kind of semi breakout after Evan Ingram got injured last year, and a guy named Tyler Warren maybe you've heard of him. He got wrapped it this year in the first round. So he played behind those two guys in college, and then prior to that, he actually played Canadian football in
high school. So we're talking twelve man per side, larger field, different game, and well not entirely, but certainly the scheme is different. Stuff like that. So there's been a bit of a learning curve. But can I interest you in a nine point nine to nine raz which is the second highest tight end since nineteen eighty seven?
Okay, you know who number one was?
No? Yeah, it's uh, oh, oh, who do you think it was?
Actually, I believe I know because I'm the only person potentially on the planet, and in fact, I'm gonna go likely on the planet, including his own team that thinks that there's still a possible of Jelanie Woods turning into a meaningful NFL player.
He was number three years all. The first one is you may recall, I honestly had to look him up to remind myself its Zach Kuntz. H he was, I believe on the Eagles for a short period of time. If if I'm not mistaken, did not amount to anything. That's you forgot.
That's a guy you have to enunciate very very carefully.
Yep, and I did my best. So let's let's work past that. But yeah, super athletic, and you know, tight end is a position on offense that correlates to production the best out of any other position. So if you got a guy who you know, even though he has a learning curve because he came out of Canadian football and he played behind two, uh you know, other really good tight ends, let's keep an eye on him. You know, last year he suffered a list frank injury in week thirteen.
He missed the rest of the year, but the final five games leading up to that injury, he was starting to break out as a rookie. And you know, it wasn't like world ending numbers or anything like that. It was five point four targets, forty three yards and point two touchdowns per game, just modest numbers. But let me remind you he was playing with Daniel Jones, Drew Locke, and Tommy Cutletz Divito, so he had a real mixed
bag of quarterback play during that period. And you know, given the situation and the experience and his background, it's their modest but respectable numbers, I think. So this year we're gonna have Russell Wilson stepping into the fold. Who you know, people have their opinions of him, but certainly better than that situation. And he was fine last year.
He was eleventh in PFFS passing grade. He set up Pat Fryarmuth for his best fantasy season to date, and if you extrapolate the season when Russell Wilson took over, Friarmuth was on an eighty target, seven hundred yard, eight or nine touchdown season, which would if we got something similar to that out of THEO Johnson, it would be a great situation. You know, Friar Ruth quietly was twelfth in red zone targets last year. I don't think I would have thought that if I didn't look.
It up, which is not exactly If that's the most compelling stat you can come up with on Pat Fryarmouth, that he was twelfth in red zone targets, I don't know.
Yeah, it's more about Russell Wilson, more about he's willing to target the tight end, and frankly, there's virtually no tight end competition on this team right now. Daniel Bellinger is just a guy. Chris Manherds is a veteran blocker, and then they have Greg Dultcha on the roster. But that experiment's over. I'm done with it.
That will not allow Yeah.
Yeah, so, uh. Looking over to their receivers, which I think is an important kind of distinction when talking about tight ends, is they really don't have a solid number two. They have, you know, Malik Neighbors is obviously there one,
and he's awesome. They have Darius Slayton, who's a deep threat kind of guy, doesn't really do too much else and then they have Wandale Robinson, who's kind of a short at gadgety type player, and I don't think he's gonna amount to anything significant in terms of a full route tree. So you have this opportunity for someone to work some crossers, work up the scene, and I think THEO Johnson could potentially be that guy to take up those targets.
All right, THEO john IIY. I if it came down to Juwan Johnson or THEO Johnson, which Johnson are you picking?
Oh Man, Juan Johnson. I believe it has the better case right now, and I think he's hiring ADP Yeah, so I would probably just have to go him for that reason. But I know that in my best ball drafts that I'm doing right now and stuff where I have a little bit deeper of a roster, I am grabbing THEO Johnson absolutely everywhere I can.
All Right, you're grabbing Johnson everywhere you can? All right, Well, welcome to the show now. Now it's officially a Fantasy Football Weekly. Last pick for me on my last pick of the draft, My last pick, last pick is a guy that we alluded to, well let me allude to. We talked about him last week, But I'm just I liked him last week and I like him this week, so I'm mentioning him again. Baltimore running back Justice Hill. I used to be moan Hill's insertion into the Ravens
offense back when it was when JK. Dobbins was still young and good and Gus Edwards was young, healthy and good, and no it's not even a matter of young. They were just healthy and good, and I'd be like, oh, just pound those guys, and I never wanted to see Justice Hill in the field. Then last year he looked just like a different back PFF grading way way up
and turned into a really good pass catching back. I just feel like Justice Hill is a high priority handcuff behind Derrick Henry, and I don't even want to get into like, you know, if Henry goes down, then you know, Hill obviously would be you know, turned into roughly a top ten fantasy running back. But even what I like about Justice Hill is I don't need that injury because the pass catching has been so good. He finished his Pro Football Focus is number three ranked receiving running back.
Last year, he had forty two catches and zero drops, so I think he can be a PPR helper. Any week that you have to you got when you've got to turn to your bench, it's a bye week, an injury or something, you could start Justice Hill keep your fingers crossed. You get to ten PPR points and then you know, if God forbid something happens to Derek Henry, you're sitting on a gold mine. So I feel like he helps you both ways.
Yeah, I think we've talked about before that. I like Keith Mitchell here as well if there's an injury. But if let's say Derek Henry stays healthy, Justice Hill is definitely a better selection of the team. He's got that PPR floor. Like you said, he's very a dynamic. They gave him the contract last year, so they're gonna be using him as much as they can. You know, whenever you see a running Mack get extended, it's it's a sign that the offense values him and so you're going
to keep him in the fold. And Derek Henry's obviously the lead dog here, but yeah, it's always nice to have a flex player that you can get for pretty pretty cheap.
Yeah. I like that part too, Kent, You've done a lot of shows you finally get to take a break for over a month. Yeah, how about that. Next week we're going to turn our attention to do the opposite. We're gonna talk about when you should do the opposite, when you should and do the opposite. If you don't know, is the it's the origin. It's the original no running back, zero RB approach that we were talking about on the show,
ten full years before anybody knew the term zero running back. Kent, and we'll be talking about where to do the opposite, where to undo the opposite? Next week. That'll be with Matt And there's been a ton of fun, love talking about the bottom of the draft as opposed to where we usually focus our attention. Kent, great job, thank you, glad to be here and it was a good chet Yep. We'll talk to everybody next week. Thanks everybody. Fantasy Football
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