NFC West breakdown with Scott Fish

missed you. It does feel that long. It's been way too long, way too long. It's gonna be back, though. It is good to have you back. I blame I blame the pandemic. It's a convenient excuse for many things. And we'll but it's great to have you back. I blame Johnson. You'll be a regular back on the show beginning in August, which would be fantastic. And we're in the middle of f S s f B eleven, which is very exciting. I think I've I think I'm in my drafts in round eleven right now. I think something

like that. Half way done, yeah, half way done. Lots of quarterbacks going early. That's the tight ends going early. It's yeah, and just so scott Fish Bowl and going great, eleven hundred ish teams, just one one thousand, nine hundred and twenty teams, thousand, nine hundred, twelve hundred teams. No, one thousand, nine hundred and twenties, so nearly two thousand teams, two thousand teams, and then another doing satellites. Jeez, that's amazing, amazing.

So if you're out there and you commission one Fantasy league and and have trouble with that, just multiply that by about three hundred something. Jeez. Uh, you have no tolerance for goofiness when you're when you're commissioning that many leagues, it's hurting cats. Your American's commissioner. Now we're not for the fact that John the Commissioner has commission like that. There's John the Commissioner haber Meyer, and he's forever locked

up the commissioner Moniker. But what about America's commissioner. If you google America's commissioner, you might be the first there might not. Nobody's taken it yet, what do you think I might as well take it. I hereby sanctify and officially name you America's Commissioner Scott fish see as the godfather fantas football. I feel you have that right. I feel you're you're laying the sword down on that. Absolutely. We have an exciting announcement. We are opening an uh

an official Scott fish Bowl. It's not I guess, a satellite, it's a it's a side projects event, a guillotine league for Scott fish Bowl. All the proceeds go to Scott fish Bowl. In Fantasy Cares, UH it is fifty dollars to join. It's the super chop format. Most of our listeners are know about guillotine leagues. The super chop format is a little bit different in that twelve twelve team leagues.

You will join one twelve team league. If you are the winner of your twelve team league, you then go to the playoffs with the other eleven winners for a chance to get to the to be the champion. Now for the fifty bucks, and if we fill this, Scott, when we fill it, that's seven thousand dollars to Fantasy Cares. That which is fantastic. Um. Your fifty dollars gets you

a pretty good deal on this. Rhodor Wire is kicking in a free NFL subscription with your entry fee, So that's a thirty dollar value and you get that as soon as the league fails, so you get that. Then if you are one of the twelve league winners in our super Chop format for the Scott's Full Love and

Guillotine Leagues, you get two things. You get an automatic entry well you go, sure, you get an automatic entry in SFB twelve next year to play with your favorite analysts and celebrities and former professional athletes and movie stars and TV actors and stuff, all the people you you want to play with in SFP twelve. And you also get a custom ring from Trophy Smack. Yes, and it's beautiful and it's got specific artwork just for this Guillotine League style scott Fish Bowl. It's a fish in a

bowl with the guillotine it is. It's it's awesome. I love that. I love that. It's very nice. Matt Wallace did a great job on that. And then if you win the whole thing, you get a Trophy Smack trophy um that you'll be the only one in the world with this, the Guillotine League version of the Trophy Smack Trophy. They make the best, most unique trophies. That's the fantastic stuff,

um and we're grateful for them. The focus and by the way, if you're interested in joining this Scott Fish Bowl Guillotine League, follow Scott Fish on Twitter Scott Fish twenty four. Uh, follow me at Paul Charchian and Guillotine Leagues dot com. You'll have information uh coming if now, probably by the time you hear this. When as as we're taping this, it's not yet live, but it's I think it will be live when people hear this Guillotine Leagues dot com. The focus of the rest of this show,

Scott is the NFC West. Yes, we've been breaking down all of the teams forward looking not We're not repeating what you already know what happened last year. What do you think is going to happen for the four teams in the NFC West this season? And at the end of each team will identify the riskiest player at current ADP and the play with the most upside based on current a DP. Yep, it's exciting. I'm gonna let you

go first a team. I'm very excited about a team that I think will challenge the Bucks to be the in the Super Bowl for the NFC one of the two favorites that is the Los Angeles Rams. I think Vegas agrees with you on that one. It's they're right up there at top five betting they should be the Rams. Okay, So we'll start with the passing game. Matthew Stafford currently going off the board is QB twelve, eighth or ninth round,

usually around the eighth round. Usually for me, quarterbacks going in the single digits is a little too high for me. But I love everything about Stafford this year. In fact,

I think that QB twelve is his floor. Yeah, it feels that way, doesn't it, given the talent surrounding again, yeah, consistently with the Lions, he's had four thousand plus yard years, thirty touchdown years, and now he goes to an offense where Sean they made Jared Goff a forty hundred yard and thirty two touchdown quarterback, and you could argue the weapons now are might even be a little bit better than they were because maybe the same similar But they

have a great defense. They had a great defense during that great golf year, so I'm not concerned about that being slowing down. McVeigh. McVeigh has been proven to let his offense, you know, go, even with the defense being good, they don't slow down the game. I think though, that forty shred yards touchdowns is pretty much a floor for

Stafford this year. It is, doesn't it feel? It feels like he was a he was a top twelve quarterback with the Lions and all the things that were wrong there, And now Stafford gets by far the best coaching he's ever had, and the best every best running game he's ever had, uh and the best wide receivers receiving options he's ever had. And we'll go there with Cooper Cup and Robert Woods, and I'm gonna lump them together a little bit here because they're both going in the fifth round.

You're probably not gonna get both on your team when you're drafting. That's maybe a corner maybe if you reach to a reach around on one of them. Maybe. But one thing I found very interesting with Cooper Cup when I was doing the research is that he's had ninety catches in back to back years, even through injuries. And that's not targets, that's catches. That's a lot of catches that is, and that's you know, that's where those of us that are drafting for safety, I like Cooper Cup

more than Woods. If you're drafting for upside, then I think I like Woods more than Cup. Yeah, and I think that's fair and early reports from the OTAs and whatnot, and there's a strong connection with Stafford. Uh. Woods is the guy who was super consistent, like just sixty seventy yards every game for a couple of years in a row. Last year when the offense came down, he was he was He was no longer that consistent guy. But I think it comes back with with Stafford and he becomes

a consistent option again. He's he's got great deep ball potential, which is something that's been Stafford's strong suit for a long time and something they never had with golf. Yeah, so that field's gonna get stretched before it's It's interesting golf golf did have a lot of twenty plus yard passes UM, but he won't have the completion rate or or the style of offense that the Stafford's gonna happen with that UM. The other two receivers wide receivers at

least Jefferson and Van Jefferson into Shan Jackson. Van Jefferson obviously a rookie last year, got in a very very tiny amount. But if they've hyped him up a lot, if they loves him, but they did bring into Sean Jackson, I feel like as long as Deshan Jackson stays healthy, they're gonna hurt each other. For fantasy, they're just gonna they may have three wide receivers sets a lot, but they might cancelate each other out just enough to not

be relevant for us from a fantasy standpoint. We need Van Jefferson or de Sean Jackson to get hurt, and it'll probably be de Sean Jackson. Yeah, yeah, if history tells the same thing exactly. Yeah, that is the concern with Jackson's that deep threat that when they had Cooks is the third receiver they loved having that deep threat.

So yeah, I'm staying away from both of them. What do you think about drafting Jackson got the last pick of your draft, and you could just we don't drop him if he doesn't, drop him if it doesn't work out, or just start him in the first like three games when you know that he's healthy and you could start him there maybe, But I don't know. I think wait and see you and I are far more excited, yes, by the tight end position are for Los Angeles. Yeah, And it's it's really a lot about value. It's it's

Tyler Higbie. Gerald Everett is out of the out of town now. Um, we have like pretty much a five game sample size of Higbie with Everett, you know, mostly out of the games and them running one tight end sets, which is what we expect them to do this year. And in that five game set at the end of twenty nineteen season, Higbee average nine catches for a hundred and five yards on eleven targets. That's not it's per

game numbers. That's really a hundred Even if you have that, it's it's like a four or five for fifty five tight end. That's the top twelve tight end nowadays. And if you if you took last year's numbers, where both Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee were neither were very startable, reliable, But if you put their numbers together last year, you

had tight end five. Yeah. So if you think that Everett, if you think Higby is gonna get most of Everett's work, you've got tight end five and Higbee and he's going off the boards. Tight end what's seventeen sev He's so misdrafted right now. A lot analysts have him in their top ten in rankings. It's it's just it's just a it's a discrepancy, is what it is. It's it's just too far off. You watch just changes between now and

week one. Yeah, you Higby is gonna start incrementally going up draft forwards and once again, once again we think this offense is going to be much better than that. You mentioned Higgby plus Everett last year. Now, imagine with a much better offense, better quarterback, right Yeah, yeah, so so way undervalued right now. For for Higbie, it's yeah, onto the running game. Acres is currently going RB ten. I I've mentioned I feel this is this is pretty fair.

I feel like he ended this season with that twenty two twenty six touches per game, and people are hoping for that again. I think it's gonna be a little below that, but I still think he's going to be a bell cow anytime you get a running back with that much that many touches um going on. I do think this is a year with seventeen games and reliance on second running backs all over the NFL that Henderson as RB fifty four round, I expect four touches for

running backs in this offense. I expect Henderson to be on the field twenty five percent at the time. Percent of time. I think he's going to be a back that will see nearing ten touches a game. And if Acres for some reason goes down he went down last year, he could be huge. I'm trying to steal him in those middle double digit rounds, but I feel like Acres as a first round pick makes sense. Yeah, late first round, early second right. I love Acres. He's in my I

think he's my running back five right now. And um, the reason I love him is the usage. At the end of the year, he was, as you mentioned, he was getting whatever twenty I think it was twenty five total touches per game because his targets could come up. Honestly, they could, they really need to. Going into the playoffs, it was I think twenty five per game over the last like four or five games of the year. And then I go back to I know Sean McVeigh has

run a committee the last couple of years. Before that, Todd Gurley was a freaking beast who he ran into the ground and want to be part of that. An absolute workhorse. So Todd mcveigh's got him, got it in him to have a workhorse back. I just think he hasn't had a good enough back. You know, Malcolm Brown was never good enough to be a work horse back. I don't know. Maybe he's gonna maybe he saw that he ran Gurley down and he's gonna be like all running Gurley down was get me to a super Bowl?

Want why? Right? So? I think, um, I think Acres has got eighteen to twenty two is touches a game built into him and that that is going to be enough to make him a rock solid RB one And I like Acres. Yes, all right, have we missed anybody? I think we've covered No, We've covered all the key points here. We've covered him. Uh. You mentioned at the top that you wanted me to give one who's super undervalued, give me the riskiest player at ADP and the play

with the most upside based on ADP. Alright, So I think the player with the most upside based on ADP is pretty clearly Higbie correct. I think at tight end seventeen, like, I think it's this well, I said Stafford being drafted at his floor. I think Higby's being drafted well belowest floor for some for some reason. Uh so Higby's the that one. All right? How about the risk is riskies? This is really tough. I don't think any of them are that risky where they're going. I actually like the

value on all of these players. But if I had to pick one, it's just got to be Acres because he's a first rounder. But yeah, where's he going? Where he's going? Yeah, and you know running backs, we saw McCaffrey and Barkley last year, like and Acres got hurt last year. That's where where Acres. Where Acres is going from, I'm putting out might do the opposite hat right now.

Where he is going is where all so many of the running back failures come is the end of the first round beginning in the second round, when you're paying this heavy price on a guy who isn't Derrick Henry Dalvin Cook. Right. You know, these these proven workhorse backs, These are guys you're projecting to be great, but a lot of the time it doesn't work out. Yeah, that it's it's it's the range where they've shown the potential and they've done it in Spans, but you don't know

that they can do it for a full season. Correct. Uh, let's move well, actually, let's do this. Let's take a quick break, come back. I want to talk about the San Francisco forty nine, another team that could be a fringe super Bowl team if things break the right way in an offense that's gonna get a lot better. Let's talk nine ers when we come back in just a moment. Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul charch In and Scott Fish with you. We already broke down

the Rams. Let's pivot from one brilliant offensive mind, Sean McVeigh to the best offensive end of the game, and that is Kyle Shanahan. For some reason, the way you said that like brilliant, like brilliant offensive mind, like I was thinking, like George Carlin. Yes, I don't know. Uh, you know what the funny thing is if you go back now and listen to his stuff by today's standard, so it's it's lukewarm. It's like, you know, it's like, I don't know, you could like a kid show. It's

nothing by today's standards. Carlin was great in his day. Um, a lot of the stuff does not hold up all that well, like the trippy hippie Weatherman stuff. It's just it just isn't. It just doesn't. It just doesn't work today.

But a lot of comedy is that way unfortunately. UM. Kyle Shannon has the best offensive mind of the game, and the Niners are primed for an offensive breakout after last year ranking fourteenth in yards and twenty one points using mostly Nick Mullins and c. J. Beth at quarterback. I think this team gets way way better on offense, and part of my optimism is around the offensive line. The Niners get two huge boosts in the off season

the resigning of left tackle Trent Williams. Williams was Pro Football Focus is number one ranked left tackle last year. Why Washington ever got to a point where they let him go? It was crazy. And then they also signed center Alex math Mac, a longtime veteran. Sixteenth ranks center doesn't sound like great, but when last year center ranked like thirty, it's way it's a sizable improvement for them.

And they still have Mike McGlinchey, a former first rounder, on the right side, and he's very good, especially in the run. So I like the offensive line, and that really brings us to what's going to be one of the best developments to watch in the preseason, Scott, and that is Trey Lance. How ready is Trey Lance to make an impact and how soon? And watching him in the preseason will be fascinating. He could be every bit as raw as an eleven start college player can be.

But if he looks good Man, the runway on Jimmy Garoppolo could be very short. Yeah, I feel like it would be. I have a couple of different thoughts on this that A Shanahan should probably see the tactical advantage of having a guy with that kind of mobility in an offense he already likes to run. Uh. The other one is this is, you know, Jimmy Garoppolo. We have a quarterback that was benched not for injury, but legitimately benched for poor play by four C. J. Beathard and

Nick Mullin's over the last two years. So I think guided them to a Super Bowl two years ago. So I mean there is that. I mean Garoppolo has there has been functional Yes, Yeah, it's it. He knows the offense, he knows all the nuances. You know, there's I think he's got real competition behind him now, so yeah, and maybe he'll be better for it. Maybe um Lands is the player fantasy owners want in the game. It's just

a matter of when. And it makes it a tricky to draft Trey Lance knowing you may get literally no starts from him. Look look at Patrick Mahomes. They didn't start him his entire rookie year, well weeks, you know, in a meaningless week seventeen game. That's it. So um the snazzy, the snazzy draft angle, Scott is this. You draft both Garoppolo and Tray Lance at their ADP. For Garoppolo it's picked two hundred sixty two, it's free, and then Tray Tray Lance is going after board his quarterback.

So you take Lance in like that was that's roughly round twelve, round thirteen. So you take Lance there at twelve and thirteen. That's cheap considering how good Tray Lance can be. You back them up with Jimmy Garoppolo as the last pick of your draft, and you've got Kyle Shanahan starting quarterback, And why do you want Kyle Shanahan's

starting quarterback? Even if it's Jimmy Garoppolo. The last three years Shanahan's quarterbacks as a team, San Francisco has finished and nineteen in touchdown passes, most of them thrown by Nick Mullins and c. J. Beathard. Yeah, that's that's pretty good. That's pretty good. And you've only invested a thirteen rounder and a twentieth rounder to get that quarterback hook up. Yeah, if I remember correctly, Matt Ryan had some good stats with Shanahan too. Matt Ryan did, Okay, Okay, let's talk

to wide receivers. Brandon iok is fascinating to me. I think he just had one of the better rookie seasons that nobody's talking about last year in his final six games, by the way, in the middle of which he had COVID. In his final six full games, despite catching one hoppers from Bethard to Mullins, his average line was twelve targets, eight receptions, eighty three yards and almost a touchdown per game. That's almost Higby without everyting exactly exactly. Now, in fairness,

Kittle was gone for half of those games. Samuel has gone for half of those games. But it also demonstrates that I you can carry a passing offense. That's that's the way I see it is that I showed that he's a true Alpha, even even with nobody else to throw too. He's got I think he has wide receiver. I think he has like wide receiver ten twelve upside Brandon Ayuk absolutely completely. Then there's Deebo Samuel who lost

much of last year. First he had the preseason foot injury that cost him three or four games at the start of the season. Then he got COVID, Then he had a hamstring injury. But Deebo Samuel still played in seven games and he led the NFL in yards after catch at twelve yards. Just unreal, which is unreal. Yeah, he basically had a negat I'm pretty sure he did have a negative a dot average stuff that I think

it was negative point two yards was a dot. So they're throwing bubble screens to him, and he was turning a typical bubble screen into a game of twelve yards, which is pretty impressive. It makes sense they used this as an extension of the run game, and run games are amazing. They are amazing. Um, if if they can stretch him a little bit more downfield and tray Lance

would be the way to do that. Deebo Samuel gets even more interesting, but he is a remarkably powerful so he bullies people, he doesn't he I think he's the closest thing to Percy Harvin when Percy Harvan went Rookie of the Year and he was so good in those first couple of years. I think I think Deebo Samuel's right on that trajectory, which I love. Um perfect for Trey Lance too, who reads the field low to high. Yeah, so he'll be looking at Samuel first and then working

his way downfield. And tray Lance has a great de ball deep ball to us. But but yeah, that's yeah. Matt Waldman has talked about how that's how he reads the field, and with Deebo downshort, that's perfect. Richie James is your other probable starter. Jalen Hurt's coming off his a CLF from last year, and I think Mohamedson, who honestly could get cut. I'm not drafting him. Let's go to the type quarterback it could be, could be. Uh, let's go to the tight end. You already know everything

about George Kittle and you know he's awesome. I guess the thing. I want to want you to know two things. One is fully recovered from the injuries last year. You may have forgotten he actually played in week sixteen weeks seventeen last year. So fully healthy right now for George Kittle and Scott you're getting him at a full round later in a DPS third round this year. He was second round last year for George Kittle. And his quarterbacking is going to be better this year. One way or another.

The quarterbacking will be better. Yep. He he does have, He does have more to compete with now. I mean, I can Samuel are going to take take some targets that he would have had the last couple of years. But once again, more potent offense rise and tide raises all boats. So that's the passing game, and we love the passing game. The running games all frustration for fan for fan at the owners. So you know, you know

what Cal Shanahan works. You're gonna get a lot of running, but it's gonna be spread out over guys and in different situations in ways that are gonna frustrate fantasy owners a lot. I want to start with rookie Troy Sermon because there's so much interested in him. They took Tray Sermon in the third round, and I think that's a reach, and I don't think he's a special player. Pro Football Focus had Sermon graded in the sixth round. Obviously, the

Niners saw things they liked. But and there are things that I like. He's he's got good balance, good start stoppability, He's got decent vision. But there's a lot of things I don't like about Tray Sermon. He's not that fast. He's a bit tall for the position, which gives defenders a big target to hit. He ran behind these big offensive lines when he was at Oklahoma and Ohio State. That opened up massive holes for him. Um, he's I think he's just an average athlete and they rarely use

him in the passing game. I just I don't think he's a special guy. But I think you're a little I think you're a little warmer on a sermon that I am, yeah, a little bit. Um. I I just think that they're going to run a ton and it's all about your opportunity in what's going to be a

good offense. I think he's gonna get touches. I I think that they both might, and I think that the rest of the running backs tend to have some injury history, especially Mostart, so I love most when he plays, and Jeff Wilson's going to miss the first month of the season or so. I just think there's opportunity there. And on the passing game thing, I do find it interesting how Shanahan has taken like traditional like DeVonta Freeman in Atlanta did not catch passes in college like he caught

maybe fIF and he was catching in the pros. So I mean there's a chance development shoulders. People can't see your shoulders, but that's why I said it. Um, So let's talk about Mostart for a minute. When healthy is a good back till last year, I think he appeared in seven games up the top of my head. But what I can tell you for certain is five and a half yards per carry for Mostard in a bad year, and he's always had high yards percaring, high yards per reception.

That's been a Moster thing. And he can catch. Um. He averaged points seven yards over expectation, which was tenth best in the league last year. Most are too good back. His average draft position makes it tricky to go to war with him, he's running back twenty six and round five, so you're you're kind of in that area. It's like Mike Davis or he Mostart. Yeah, that's that's where you get out of the clear cut starters and into the backfields that you hope, you hope one of them can

take it over. Mike Davis is he's got all the chances in the world to know. It's all the opportunity, but so to Todd rule and he was brutal, so opportunity doesn't always end up. And honestly, Mike Davis last year when he did other like, he started out hot, but he really tailed off quick. So yeah, right right, he didn't look like he was a season long, full time starter, which he had never been before last year. Wayne Gallman is also now in San Francisco, and he

muddies the water. Is even further, who's actually pretty capable last year with the Giants um and he likely him Wilson later when he comes back. Are just gonna They're gonna frustrate fantasy owners to some degree. Mostly, I'm just staying away from this whole situation. Do you wonder so most is it's the last year of his contract. Does that change anything for you? Do they run him into the ground a little more knowing they're not gonna keep him potentially, Like, does that way at all? You know?

I just think Shannon is who he is, I think, and you know, I don't. I don't think it does. We'll just he'll just he'll just play his games with that running back by committee and sometimes sometimes we play, sometimes we play that factor. I just didn't know that. I don't think it does here. But that's just me a different coach. I would give you a different answer exactly. Yeah, different coach, just different answer. The risk is player to adp to me as Tray Sermon running back forty and

round nine. I realized that you're not paying a lot at that point. But I feel like he's not the I I can't tell you when he'll start a game, and maybe not this year, even if most are goes out, it might be Wayne Golman starting or Jeff Wilson starting. So to me, there's more risk there the player at the most upside compared to a DP. And there's a

bunch of niners that fall into this category. But Brandon, a wide receiver twenty seven in the fifth round is my guy showing some special traits that can make him one of the league's better receivers. I think both Ayu and Samuel fall for I think they're both ways I would take. I would too, yeah, but not by a lot. I think I might cheat you. They're separated by the should be. Really they should be like the cup and

woods of it is similar to that. Um there's a bit of a one to punch in Seattle, but not really in the same way. Seattle's got Dk Metcalfoy. I think in the the in fantasy owners minds, DK metcalf is the focal point of that offense just because of the you know, the highlights in the body and everything else, the special trades that he's got. Let's let's break down the Seattle Seahawks for this season. Sure, sure, I was wondering if we're gonna take a break there or not

break coming up after the Seahawks. Alright, let's let's do that. All right, Uh Seattle Seahawks. Let's start with the passing game, which we seems to have each time. Uh, Russell Wilson not a requirement. You want to start with Chris Carson. It's fine by me because I love Chris car All right, let's start with Chris Carson, because alright, I think we're two of the guys in the industry that love Chris Carson a little more with nobody else. Everybody else was like,

I gotta take Chris Carson. I'm the guy like, yeah, Chris Carson. I got him in the third, late third, early fourth. Whatever is my RB two. I love this because he can put up RB one numbers, which we both believe he's going RB nineteen late third, early fourth, uh, well below where we think. He's had nine touchdowns in three straight years. He's had plus total yards each of the you know, twenty nineteen, twenty nineteen. Last year he missed like five games or so, so he did not

hit that total. But this year, uh, Pete Carroll has already talked about running the ball more, being more committed to the run um. I think the offense is gonna be a little better, a little more efficient, and uh it's always efficient, really, that offense is always efficient. But if he stays healthy, I think he's got another thirteen hundred plus yard nine touchdowns in him and going where he's going RB nineteen as well. But he's not going is he's going as the last of the Bell cowbacks

and I think that's I think that's a flaw. Yeah, agreed, Agreed, it is. You know, Carson is a good back. He's good and there's just nobody to take carries away from him. And I don't think any kind of threat. It's getting worse. Penny just went in this month for a re like another surgery on his knee, clean up on his on his knee from last year, and he Penny's going our B fifty three twelve round. I actually liked that and tell this recent news because I want all the backup

running backs this year. I feel like with this seventeen game season, those backup running backs, as I mentioned with Henderson earlier, those backup running backs are going to get on the field of the time whatever it is. But with this one, Alex Collins has gaining all the work right now with Carson and Penny not at O T A S and uh Penny with the injury. Man, I I just think it's going to be a lot of Carson this year. So Carson could get two hundred eight

two three hundred total touches. Could be one of those years and it's another one of those that we're gonna talk about this now. Everybody's gonna draft him in the fourth is RB nineteen, and at the end of the year, we're gonna be like, why didn't we see this? Guess what if you listen to Fancy Football Weekly, you were seen this coming. We're pretty confident about Chris carson Um. All right, well, let's go to the passing game. Russell Wilson was great in the first half last year and

then the second half disaster. All these people that have been writing Russell Wilson in that passing game really got stuck in the second half when the whole Seattle offense really struggled. Russell Wilson is currently going as QB six. He's going in the late fifth and that's my problem. That's my problem with Wilson. You mentioned how he tailed

off at the end of the year. There's been a lot of years in his career where he started slower and then he was just super hot at the end of the year, which is maybe he's a half season quarterback and is finally end as season numbers always look good. But yeah, that's my problem with Wilson. I know he's he's probably fair in his end of the season numbers are going to be in that QB four or five, six, seven eight range, Like he's gonna be a top twelve quarterback.

My problem is he goes in the fifth round. That's that's even even in the sixth or seven, even the sixth, it's too bad, Like I just can't do it. His receiving game, though, there isn't a lot to talk about about DK Metcalf. He is he yards eight to ten, twelve touchdown guy. He's going as wide receiver for he's going at that value. I don't see I don't see a path to outside of injury. I don't see a path for him not to be that thousand plus eight

to twelve years, eight to twelve touchdown receiver. It feels like it feels like a lock for him. Yeah, you know, yeah, you know, like Russell Wilson, he did have some games where he just disappeared last year, but just just but he's built for He's built to be in the end zone and found in the end zone. And it's his third year and there have been lots of lots of players that have mentioned this that and fantasy players have known for year third or year wide out is is

a big deal. But uh yeah, like Chado Chosen has talked about this, where the third year, it's less about less about you know, the stats going up, it's about the receiver finally understanding the game and understanding how to do certain things. And also, oh yeah, but that goes in line with it, you know, Like so Metcalf's on that, Like, I just don't Every receiver has down games. Most receivers have down games from time to time. It's gonna happen, but he's going at the right place. What I don't

like is Tyler Lockett a wide receiver twenty two. It's just way too high for me. The end of the fifth round. Um, I feel they're going to run more, as Carol has stated, But even if they don't, Tyler Lockett has been so inconsistent over the last two years. I know, he has twenty eight touchdowns in the last three years, which is amazing. That's awesome. That sounds season is a solid number. It's like ten, ten and eight

or whatever. But like three years ago, he was getting a touchdown like every other game like he was and he was super super consistent. The last two years though, however, he had fifty. Nearly of his fantasy points came in four games. That that is killer. That means the rest of the games are really bad. Yeah. Yeah. And last year he had four games over seventy yards. Eight of his ten touchdowns came in three games. Like that kills you the rest of the time in Guilloteen leagues, He's

a total disaster. This is the exact opposite of what you want. Um. Yet Locket is being drafted. I think people are drafting and based on remembering the highlights and remembering the big games, and he wasn't on your team the yard game, right, three touchdown games. I think he had two of those last year, two three touchdown games. Yeah, that's what they're remembering, and they don't see that you're gonna lose a lot of weeks because you want him in there for those those weeks that he doesn't uh.

The problem with his draft position is I'm gonna list players going within ten picks on either side of him, Cooper Cup, Kenny Golladay, Jamaar Chase, Ceedee Lamb, Robert Woods, d J Moore, Brendan Ayouk, Tee Haggins. I'd rather have all of those them, you know, he's not. He's not on my draft board where where based on where people are taking him right now? Now you on me, he's an eighth or nine thrown pick him like, no, man,

he's my wide receiver three or flex. Yeah, but at this point, the only way he's your wide receiver three is if you're really weak at other positions. Yeah, where you're drafting him now? Um, And that's why I title lock him not beyond any of my fantasy because I'm not doing that now. Eskridge is a rookie. They drafted a muscular, strong, not not super tall, but like a muscular strong, you know, bully out there on the field.

Good receiver that we'll see how much play he gets the third receiver, and there has been relevant from time to time. You could pick David Moore spots every now and again, and I think we take calmed him, take a chance to we we take calm to him a couple of times during the year. He's Chris Conley West, so it's Conley in Houston. I think he's in Houston. I think I think he is too. Yeah, yeah, he was when we kept when we kept take comming him. So that's why I went with the West. Yeah, you

you know you hit it. You your mother would call you up the day before. He's gonna have a game this week, call me up or just turn her head. Oh boy, oh boy. Uh No, but I like Ascar. It's just when are you gonna get him? And when are you going to know when to start him? He should be on the field a decent amount though if he if he wins that role, he should be on on the outside there. He should be in the field a decent amount. Um, let's go to the tight ends though,

it's really just Everett is the only draftable one. Disley and Parkinson are being drafted. I know there's hype about Parkinson being, you know, the six foot seven, big potential red zone target and Pete Carroll's talked about him, but I need to see him be a factor before I'm doing anything with him in fantasy. Gerald Everett is the interesting one. I have long called him tight end Cordel

Patterson because he doesn't look a lot like Carol Patterson. No, but he's super He's this big dude, He's super athletic, He's great in space with the ball. Sometimes he can take runs and like John who style, but he's scored touchdowns running the ball. Uh. But mostly it's because he has these big flash games or flash plays and then he's gone, like he'll be gone for weeks or gone for like he'll have a forty yard play and then he's gone for the rest of the game. And he

looks great on the play exactly. You under see that playing go Oh my god, he's you know, he's such a talent. They'll have to find ways to get him the ball and then the rams wouldn't exactly. But the hope here is dis Lee has been great when in the game, and then he gets injured and they've had tight ends have good games there. I think that's the hope is that Everett is healthy all year and he's there, you know, one man tight end show, which could end

up being he's going tight end twenty. He's going behind Higbee, which I think is actually fair because I think he's a lot safer. But Everett has some really high upside. If Smith's going before them, and Smith shouldn't go before them, Conklin is going to be a problem. Conklin is going to be People don't realize here's they're most coaches. When

the most coaches talk you should assume they're lying. Mike Zimmer is generally honest to a fault, and when Mike Zimmer tells you that if Smith's not going to break out, you should listen to him. Coaches never saying our guy is not gonna break it off, but so he does. I would pay attention to the Vikings played two tight end sets, like second most in the league or something. They play three tight end sets the most in the league,

which is unreal. Tells you how bad their offensive Yeah, that tells the yea offensive line and wide receiver three, which they don't have right exactly. Um, okay, so give me the riskiest player at current ADP for the Seahawks. It's Tyler Lockett. I think I think I was pretty clear on that one player at the most upside compared to ADP. Do we both think it's Chris Carson. It's

it's Chris Carson. I mean, you could make a case forever just because tight end twenty is really low for a guy that could be a start tight end every a lot of weeks. But yeah, it's Chris Carson, who could be an RB one and he's going to RB nine. Are you know a top twelve running back, but he's going to RB nineteen when we come back the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray coming off a huge season, will tell you if we like that to repeat, can he get better

in year three? There are some key changes to this team we're going to talk about and we will help identify the riskiest and upside players from the Arizona Cardinals when we come back. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul

Charchi and Scott Fish with you. Arizona brings back the highest scoring quarterback in many fantasy leagues, Kyler Murray last year and Scott the way he turned into it was the huge vault in the running output that he had from his rookie year to his sophomore year, roughly double the yards and he went all the way to eleven rushing touchdowns last year. I will say a little bit

was expected. I mean, when he injured his shoulder in his rookie season, he stopped running the ball, so he knew the right numbers would be come up, would come up, but not that much, not that I don't think anyone expected that now A little bit troubling. The passing numbers remained pretty modest passing yards is not a lot of today's NFL. Yeah, a lot. Like I'm pretty sure Steve Young and ninety two lead the NFL with three touchdown

passes and like under three thousand, you're probably right. Um, his twenty six touchdowns are you know, sessions were okay, but really thirty yards twenty six touchdowns means he was passing as well as Philip Rivers, Baker Mayfield. I mean, you know, those are not high output passers from a fantasy standpoint, and that's where Kyler Murray was. So the hope here is the passing in his third year gets

a little bit better for Kyler Murray. So even if he doesn't get the eleven rushing touchdowns and running even the most mobile quarterbacks almost never back to back, even the kind of like Lamar Jackson, who obviously rushing numbers fell off a cliff after last two years ago. Um, you know you don't even if that, Even if that falls off, the hope is that the improvements in his passing will offset it a little bit. Um. Where it's really interesting is what if the running numbers do hold

up and he's a better passer. That's that's in the range of outcomes. It's possibly, it is possible. Let's talk about his his his offensive line and his past protection. It is a medium to good past protection line. And they added center Rodney Houston Hudson excuse me, who was awesome as a pass blocker for most of his career. He's in his twelfth year, but he still has got tread on the tire. And the Raiders just you know,

blew up their whole offensive line and started over. And the Cardinals bring him in here, he will help um and then he's uh, they added in or they add They've got left tackle d J. Humphries, who was very good last year. Pro Football Focus tracked Humphries with the highest percentage of positive run blocks in the league. So there's some talent on the offensive line guards and yeah, just okay, but won't be running for his life and maybe he won't be and that's you know, that could

be that could be our i too. So let's go to Let's go to the focal point of of the receiving group, and that's obviously DeAndre Hopkins. A mild disappointment last year, finishing ninth and fantasy points, but mostly because he only had six touchdowns. His lowest in five years. But DeAndre Hopkins is as consistent as they come, and you figure the touchdowns will regress positively back to the nine or so that he typically gets. And I think he's right now. It's going off the board at wide

receiver four in the early second round. I think that sounds just just right for him. No issue with that at all. After Hopkins, the whole rest of anybody else who can catch a pass is all up in the air here, and everything's very muddy. A J. Green, Christian Kirk, Dull Moore, all battling for playing time. UM. They do use a lot of four receiver sets, so all four

will be on the on the field sometimes. UM. And where it's kind of fascinating is if you think Kyler Murray's gonna throw the same twenty six touchdowns he had last year, and if we think like ten are gonna go to DeAndre Hopkins, that leaves sixteen touchdowns. So there's room for somebody to do well. So let's start with A J. Green, who was straight garbage last year. Him. He people forget he played all sixteen games last year, all sixteen. It was either two or three touchdowns on

the season. That's it. He was wide receiver seventy four in Fantasy double digit target Day where he caught one ball. I think he did. I think that did happen, which is embarrassing. Um. This contract is a one year deal for six million guaranteed, which is kind of a lot six million dollar guarantee for a guy coming up that season. So I think he has some kind of role on this team, and maybe the new environment ends up helping him. But can you say at this stage that A. J.

Green is better than Christian Kirk. Nope, I can't either, So I don't know that Green is how much he's gonna be on the field. I think Kirk's on the field more than Green is, and I think i'd prefer to have Christian Kirk if I had to pick one of the two. He's in his fourth season, but Christie Kirk is only twenty four years old. He's still very young. He's still got room to improve, which we would take.

And last year, a little more than a bye week filling his non touchdown games were a total disaster for Kirk, where he averaged three receptions for thirty yards. Yeah, and he ended up finishing his wide receiver fifty eight last year. Yeah, I don't think I'm touching either of those guys. No, I don't think I want either one. Maybe more interesting is second round rookie Ron Delmore. Do you like Rond Delmore?

I do? I do. I have been quoted as saying that when I watched film on him, he reminded me of a squirrel in traffic, how quickly he changed direction. He is a water bug and a squirrels, a little bit of both, and he's five ft seven. He's tiny, but he is fast, and his whole deal has change the direction right. He will, he will. He will make opposing players look ridiculous, look silly. And um, he'll get slot work. He will be the star. I think he

weak one. He's your starting slot receiver on this team. To um, he'll get bubble screens, gadget plays. Uh. They'll even run him periodically if they use him at all, like he got used in college. And he needs to stay healthy. That it was a problem in college. Now he's gonna have even bigger and faster guys hitting his five ft seven frame. And I think that's the worry on Ron Delmore. Squirrels get hit sometimes. Squirrels get hit.

What do you think about a if if he's gonna get hit in traffic, do we call him road kill More instead of Ron Delmore? Can this be our first official nickname of the season. It is a little mean. He's not hurt yet. Do you have to wait for to get her? I think for him to take some hits, all right, when he gets hurt. So it's gonna be like week four, and I'm gonna have forgotten about this when it's week four and it's early October. Remind me road kill More for four months? All right? Thank you

very much? On Twitter? Will hut me out there? Uh? Of this group? No, we'll come back and talk a little more about him later. Tight Ends nothing to even talk about here. There is no tight end worth and that's all that matters. Let's go to the running backs and where I am also really hesitant with the running backs here. Some people are high on Chase Edmonds. I'm not. I can't muster any enthusiasm for him. He's not a goal line back. He's only been allowed to run one

time from inside the five yard line. At least he scored on that, right, No, he did not minus one yards on his one ride. From inside the five yard line. I thought you were tricking me for a second there. So you know, the whole the hope is Kenyan Drake has gone and that you know, Chase Edmonds is gonna pick up a lot of that role. But I don't think you. I don't think you will, and I think he is nothing more than a fifty fifty player with James Conner, who we're going to talk about in a minute.

I think Connor is gonna get the goal line work. And even when Kenyan Drake would miss some time, Edmonds didn't always make an impact. Look at Week nine last year, he got twenty five touches with Kenyan Drake out turned into eight scoreless yard that's it. That's not good. No, that's not good. Three yards barely three yards of touch. His best attributes for Chase Edmonds or his hands, he's gonna catch probably fifty sixty balls PPR safety net um

flex guy. If you just want to get your four receptions, your forty yards and you're you know, like forty rushing yards. So basically he should be being drafted maybe around ahead of the j C. Jake mckissic's, uh, maybe a couple rounds ahead of the Cohens and Hines and stuff. But that's not where he's going. No. In fact, well we can talk about exactly that in just a second. For James Conner, I thought he looked totally spent last year.

I think the career is all but over. But Jay Semans isn't a full time back, and so I think Connor is gonna get some run here, probably in the neighborhood of a hundred twenty touches something like that. It'll be eight touches a game, and Connor probably gets the goal line work. And I just I don't want any part of either one of these guys. I don't think

they're very good. And I could mention that James Conner has through his career has been like a top five guy in goal line work work, uh you know, first down plunges, stuff like that. But um yeah, he'll he'll probably continue that role, but he may not be that guy anymore. He he he just he looks so bad

last year. And I know the Steelers offensive line was horrendous, but at some point, like Dalvin Cook has been running behind a horrendous offensive line, Christian McCaffrey has been running behind a horrendous offensive line, and they still are productive. James Connor couldn't do that. Um and and you also add in the further frustration that's gonna come from Kyler Murray,

who does run from inside the five. They've given him eleven carries inside the five in his two years, and that's going to add to the frustration for Chase Edmonds and James Connor owners. I don't think that's stopping. He might be Josh Allen with for that. He even in his size, he's even in his size, he's more of their goal and back. He might be the riskiest player at their ADP is Chase Edmunds going off the board and round six running back twenty nine. I think it's

totally unwarranted for reasons. We just mentioned the player with the most upside compared to ADP, rondel Moore wide receivers seventy four, round six. We'll take that. That's that's solid. That's solid value right there, big playability. I don't know how long he'll be upright, but I like it. Yes, I agree, well before he goes to road kill. Yes, all right, we've had fun. We did me A Stranger is a long podcast. I feel that's partly because we

haven't talked in such a wide at it's been. It has been a long time, and we had all the Scott fish Bowl stuff to talk about it. I believe Brian Johnson back next week. We'll also have an episode of the Chop Podcast next week. We're getting into We're getting into almost weekly scheduling. It is Chop seasons coming up, and as a reminder of the Chop season can start out for you with the Scott fish Bowl eleven Guillotine League.

Go to Guillotine leagues dot com. Follow Scott and I on Twitter for more information about that, and we'll talk to you next week. Everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.