FFW Micro - Justin "Air Bear" Herbert

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Paul Chargian.

Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly Micro.

Addition, I am Paul Charchian, my Coast's usual Tyler Cannably PPR Tyler Yep, Twitter, yep.

Happy to have you back a new week.

We got a bunch of fresh players to look at, and I want to start this week with Justin Herbert.

Yeah, really interesting player, just because he was going really high in drafts last year, maybe as the quarterback. I think I don't remember the time I had, maybe four or five or something like that. Yeah, and he's just he just didn't have that great of year. I mean, he finishes the RB eleven and the RB seventeen in average points per game. Definitely not ideal.

Well, okay, in fairness, yeah, he had a brutal rib injury where he took the helmet right to the ribs right, and then he had a shoulder injury though so bad he had an off season laboram surgery. I mean, that's not an excuse, but also then you throw in Keenan All.

Actually it is an excuse.

Keenan Allen's injuries. He played I think nine games last year. Mike Williams was in and out of the lineup. I mean there were a lot of things working against Justin Herbert. I mean the pathway to him being better this year is seems clear to me.

Oh, I'm totally with you on that. On that end, I mean, he's going as the QB seven right now. So it's not like people you're not getting at a huge discount or anything like that. People know how good Justin Herbert is. I think the thing that you need to look at, though, is I was trying to identify the problem because I looked at I saw he's like, Okay, QB eleven, QB seventeen average points per game, Like what was the problem last season in terms of like his stats?

He was like that volume is very important for our quarterbacks.

He's number four in red zone passing attempts.

Okay, love that too.

We want touchdowns and he was number two in passing yards.

All right, So it's not to like, why did it all.

Come together that so? Well? You mentioned the touchdowns. He was eighth in passing tds, which isn't necessarily that's not a terrible staty, but he only twenty five touchdowns, which that was Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady threw more touchdowns and in last season, which.

Was those guys exactly.

Yeah, so that was one of the things. He was also eleventh in deep ball attempts. Considering he was number two in passing attempts and then eleventh in deep ball attempts kind of tells me that he was just dunking, dunking dunkle of a field and the kind of I mean, Austin Echlo was a great, bad fishery of that, but it wasn't that great for Justin Herbert. And then he was also thirty second in air yards per attempt in twenty twenty one, he was fourth.

Right, So you know before two years ago in air yards per attempt, which we care about. We want deep ball passers because that unlocks big gains touchdowns.

We want that in fantasy.

Justin Herbert was fourth two years ago, and then last year he's hobbled multiple injuries, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams hurt, and the air yards go down. And now you've got dump off stuff, and a lot of Justin Herbert's value gets tied to what Austin Eckler can do after the catch, which isn't bad. He's a great player, but that's not what you want your quarterback to have to rely on your running back for you your passing efficiency exactly.

And I think I mean you mentioned the rib and the shoulder. I think this next part is kind of one of the reasons why he wasn't as good in this area was the rushing He had had basically no rushing production last season. He was one hundred and forty seven rushing yards, was just seventeenth among quarterbacks, thirty seventh in yards per game among quarterbacks. It's zero rushing touchdowns.

Yeah, in the years prior he had been like four rushing touchdowns. I think he might have had a five rushing touchdown season. And Justin Herbert was he was helping you in small ways with those touchdowns, but you know it counts me. That stuff really does change the trajectory of your fantasy output. The difference between being a zero rushing touchdown, you know, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr versus having five.

It's a big difference.

Yeah, and I mean you mentioned the injuries mentioned the key, I mean injuries to himself obviously, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, they both missed a lot of time. Rashawn Slater is pretty much star line star lineman. Only played three games last season and then he was how old injuries of his own. So, but enough of last season, I think we need to kind of dive into twenty twenty three and how it's going to get better for Herbert. So I think the first thing I think of is just

Yeah, probably that's it. Don't forget Donald Parum. I'm a big Donald Parker. Okay, you don't have any reason to know that, but I am regular FFW listeners.

Know I keep waiting every year.

It's like, oh, this is the year for Donald.

I know it turns out it's never the year for Donald.

I'm on this, but I think it's I feel like that ship is saaled right.

No, he's still young. I mean, dude, it's like twenty four. Yeah, it's I wouldn't I wouldn't go quite that far.

That's what I love.

The athletic makeup of Donald parum.

But it's hard to ask.

I mean, Herbert's got He's got.

Receivers everywhere is the bigger point to all of this. And Quentin Johnson adds to the depth. And you know, Keenan Allen keeps getting hurt. Michael Wims has always been hurt his whole career.

On it, you know, on and off heard.

So hopefully this is this adds enough depth that he's always got legitimate targets.

Yeah. And one of the other things that I like is Kellen Moore is now the play caller in Los Angeles, which I like is Dallas ranked fifth and first over the past two seasons in total scoring offense, right, So that's just great for the touchdowns Herbert should see and it's just great for the whole offense in general.

So I looked at Kellen.

One of the things I want to see is can I really can I really tell our listeners, Justin Herbert's going to go back to throwing downfield.

And I want to say yes automatically.

And I was hoping to be able to go well, Kellen Moore had Deak Prescott, Dek Prescott throwing deep ball at the time, but he really didn't. Prescott was twenty third and deep ball pass percentage last year, so you know.

That might not. Okay, that's it.

Justin Herbert's got a bigger arm than Dak Prescott does. I mean, so they're just so there's that, and I'm optimistic Kellen Moore, Colin moriz is he will help this offense.

He will. I'm confident.

I agree. Yeah. I also don't think Dallas had the downfield weapons that the Chargers do. I mean they had Ceedee Lamb obviously, but other than that, I can't really. None of those other guys will we scream deep threat to me.

So yeah, like Mike Williams does, Like.

Williams big body guy, John Palmer does to a little bit.

So he just got good size.

Yeah he does. Yeah, And then I think the passing touchdowns, like just all this stuff, even if they didn't have Kellen Moore come in I think he just do for a little bit of positive regression. In terms of passing touchdowns. He had thirty eight of passing tds in twenty twenty and thirty one in his rookie or thirty eight and twenty twenty one, and then thirty one in his rookie season right the rookie season.

He didn't start the season as the starter, and so yeah, yeah, but thirty eight passing touchdowns two years ago, to me way more indicative of who Justin Herbert is than the twenty five touchdowns we got last year, for all the reasons that we've mentioned, for all the things that went wrong last year.

So I'm back.

I'm right back on Herbert.

I love him.

I think he should be closer to QB five. I think there's so many reasons to look at last year as an anomaly, and dude's a freak. Justin Herbert's arm is awesome.

Yeah, I and he can do it with his legs too, which I know he didn't see last year. But in twenty twenty one, he had three hundred two rushing yards, which was tenth among quarterbacks, and he had three rushing touchdowns, Like three rushing touchdowns that's a good that's gonna boost your stat your season stats up a little bit for sure. Yeah.

Absolutely.

All right, let's play the ADP game you mentioned quarterback five. We'll start with justin fields going off the board as QB five right now.

Well, here's you know.

The thing is most scoring systems in fantasy football. If you've got a rushing quarterback, you've got you've unlocked the magic key to breaking your scoring system.

So I have to take fields at five.

Yeah, I I'll take fields even though I don't want to. I'm gonna take this next guy over fields, Joe Burrow at QB six. Yeah.

What's not to love about Joe Burrow?

Right?

I think he wins the MVP this year. I've I've placed money on him winning the MVP this year.

I'm gonna take Joe Burrow on the strength of his receivers where they are right now. This year, I would rather go to war with T Higgins and Jamar Chase than what's left of Keenan Allen, a promising but still rookie receiver in Quentin Johnson and Mike Williams.

Whatever, he's healthy, So I gotta take Joe Burrow.

I'm gonna go Joe Burrow as well, over over Herbert. Next one we got is Trevor Lawrence at QB eight.

Dang, I like Lawrence a lot too.

This gets this is getting a little thorny.

These are like all the guys who like aren't they're not running quarterbacks, but they can run.

Yeah, they can't.

Burrow showed a lot of like kind of rushing ability last year. Herbert obviously we talked about it. And then Trevor Lawnce another guy who's.

Lawrence can run yep, Yes, they don't care really many designed runs, but he's got some legit mobility to him.

I'm taking Herbert.

I'm taking Herbert as well.

I'm just you know, arm quality, and we've seen Herbert post a thirty eight touchdown season, so yeah, I'm taking Herbert.

All right. Deshaun Watson QB nine.

Deshaun Watson doesn't blong anywhere near QB nine.

You don't think so, No, I think it's a great spot for him. Honestly, I am. I am taking a lot of Deshaun Watson right now at QB nine.

Boy, I wouldn't, Okay, I understand the thinking on Watson because we just talked about how rushing quarterbacks can break open your scoring system and all the advantages they get.

I did not like the fact that they didn't let him.

They did not let Deshaun Watson really run at all in what we saw of him down the stretch November and December.

They didn't barely let him run.

And that is and we know Kevin Stefanski with Nick Chubb, it's always going to.

Be a run first, running back first mentality there.

So I'm not on Watson at QB nine at all.

That's fair. I just think he has the ceiling to I mean, we've seen him finish a Q three and like that top three quarterback range. He actually has that ceiling. So maybe that was like this group of quarterbacks it feels pretty choky with Alan Mahomes and Hurts, so you know this group. But I'd still like Watson. He's got a lot of good weapons around him. He's got Cooper, he's got in Djoku, he's got a lot a newly free Elijah Moore, he's got chubbed, and he's got a

So agreed.

Dynasty wise, man, we got so many good young quarterbacks right now. Yeah, I don't think he really falls anywhere different, justin Herbert doesn't fall anywhere different in Dynasty to my mind, because all the guys that I would take before him, they're all young too.

Yeah. Well, would you take Fields over Herbert and Dynasty because he took him over him in Redraft? Would you do it in Dynasty?

No, I think i'd go Herbert.

Yeah, the safety exactly. Yeah. I want a guy who I know is gonna play for the next ten years. Yeah, I don't know.

Yeah, I'm with you on that.

I'm with you on that.

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Thank you, Tyler.

We'll go back tomorrow for more FFW micro talk to you then, everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.