FFW Micro - Jonathan Taylor

We're gonna go to another player that's gonna be pretty polarizing, Jonathan Taylor today and again the focus on Fantasy Football Weekly Micro Edition. We do a deep dive on one player lasting five to ten ish minutes or so. Although I think our last one with eleven don't tell anybody it'll still we need it to feel micro and the ideas. We can give you one of these every day, at least every weekday. Let's talk John and Taylor. Let's begin here.

Everybody knows that he was the first running back taken in Fantasy football drafts last year, and everybody knows he didn't live up to anywhere near that billing because he was hobbled all seasoned with on and off ankle injuries. Yeah, I mean right now, he's going where he went RB one last year. As you said, he's going as the RB three right now, so end of round one and he finished like RB eighteen and points for game in

twenty two, only played eleven games through that injury. And I feel like this is definitely going to be one of those situations where the same people who were in drafting McCaffrey and Barkley last off season because they were injury prone, if you had Jonathan Taylor last season, you're

not gonna be You got burned big time. So you better hope the person the one on one last year is drafting right in front of you in the first round this year, because he is going to be one of those players that some people just never draft again because he burned them so badly. He did. And unfortunately Taylor got hurt right out of the game, like I believe it was game one week one, got hurt and then he was just missed games played hurt clearly not himself.

And the offensive line for the Colts was dreadful obviously, coaching change, quarterback changes, just everything went wrong. Interesting that he's that Jonathan Taylor is still RB three. Most people feel like the bounce back is still coming. So let's let's let's do Let's dig into the let's dig into some of the extra stats on him. What did we

learn from him last year? Yeah? From last year, well, honestly, I think we would be doing him justice if we didn't at least touch on his twenty twenty one season, where he was the RB one. He was awesome. So according to the next Sense stats, he led all running backs in the yards overexpected four hundred eighty one, rushes of twenty plus miles per hour six, and rushing yards

after contact fourteen hundred eighteen. That was fourteen hundred and eighteen of his eighteen hundred total rushing yards at which is after contact. Yes, yeah, he had a if you have fourteen hundred yards after contact, fourteen hundred yards leads the NFL and rushing times. Yes, So this is a

guy who can make people miss. And if you've just compared kind of those similar stats to last season, he was fifteenth in expected yards per attempts, where in the year probably who's obviously number one, but he still finished above guys like Kenneth Walker, Austin Eckler and Josh Jacobs all guys who might have won you leagues last year. So it's not did it on the through the air? Yeah, so you know, he know the running was not magical

for him. But yes, I just think it's worth noting that these are guys that did when you league last year and he still played good last year. I just I truly think, I truly think if the situation was even a just average, yeah, we would have gotten a better version of Jonathan Taylor if he was healthy. Of course, now we've got a change at head coach, We've got a looming change a quarterback. Let's talk about looking forward what some of these changes might mean. I think if

we just kind of so. Obviously, Shane Stekeen's the new head coach who was the play caller offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and one of the things he did, for sure run the football in Philadelphia, correct, So I know the personnels are different. We'll get into the Jalen Hurts without Jone Hurts comparison here in a minute. Good but the Eagles finished with the fourth most rushing yards per game

last season, the most rushing touchdowns, and the most rushing attempts. Now, I know some of you're gonna be like, oh, yeah, Jalen Hurts. Yeah right, How much of that was driven by Jalen Hurts alone? Because he's special and different? And unless the Colts go Anthony Richardson in the draft, which they might, that's not going to be there. So let's talk about this. How much of that, how much of that Shane steke in offense was rushing offense was driven

by Jalen Hurts. So if you'd removed Jalen Hurts his rushing totals and replace it with league average stats, yes, the Eagles would have finished tenth and rushing attempts per game, still still top ten, ninth and rushing yards, and they would have finished first and rushing touchdowns even if you take away half, if you take away half of Jalen

Hurts rushing tds, they still would have finished first. Okay, And but the league average was three point eight for attempts per game for running But I'm saying, if so, it was kind of a thing when you're looking at the stats where Jalen Hurts he had like thirteen rushing touchdowns. If you take away obviously thirteen of those, like They're not gonna be number one anymore, right, But but some quarterbacks usually run in three four exactly. I don't know

if he can. So even if it was, even if you take a half away, that's still I did six. They still had the most rushing touchdowns. Okay, And another thing that's really gonna bode well I think for Jonathan Taylor is the Miles Sanders factory of this. This is the staff that surprised me. Miles Sanders finished tied third in red zone touches last season with Jalen Hurts on his team. He had forty four red zone touches. Jalen

Hurts had forty three red zone touches. Wow. So even if you take away because I'm assuming it depends on what quarterback the Colts are gonna draft, obviously, but if a draft someone like Bryce Young, Bright, Song's not gonna have forty three now, He's not, I mean, Andthony Richardson will see Gardner Minshew definitely not. So. I mean, it's

just it's just a crazy sets. So even if you take away half of those, he's gonna he would have finished as the you take away half of Jalen Hurts is red zone touches and gave him to Miles Sanders, which is Denny probably would have been number one. He would have he would have just edged out Austin Eckler. Yeah, that makes that makes sense, So I love that part. Shane Steken, dude never passed near the goal line. Iyan, it was just all running near the goal line and

that probably doesn't change and why should it. He just went to the Super Bowl on this methodology and he's got Jonathan Taylor. His disposals way better than Miles Sanders. I also think he's the person all to do it as well. They had the thirteenth best run blocking old line according to PF that was it was ninth in twenty twenty one, so pretty much the same kind of group. I believe Quinn Elsone was hurt a little bit last few. Yeah,

so they're hopefully getting him back. And I just think this is gonna be a team that wants to run the football, especially when you think about the they're gonna have to draft a rookie quarterback. I mean think everyone expects them the exactly. So I did a little digging and this is a list of running backs and they're finishes the year their team drafts a first round rookie quarterback.

The thinking behind it, obviously is you're not gonna want your rookie quarterback throwing fifty times a game and just kind of ruining his confidence that you want to play kind of through somebody else, like a Jonathan Taylor or someone like that, to kind of ease him in NFL life. So here's what I found. So in Chicago the draft Justin Fields, Dave Montgomery was RB fifteen, Okay, that was

two years ago. Two years ago, yep. Cincinnati Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon was RB eleven, Charges drafted Justin Herbert aus Eckler RB twelve. New York Giants draft Daniel Jones, se Quon RB seven, Cardinals Kyler, Murray, Kenny and Drake RB fourteen. Okay, So those were all the players, like those are first round quarterbacks. And how the rookie or sorry, first round

rookie quarterbacks, and how the running backs did in that offense. Yeah, these are good running backs Montgomery, Mixon, Eckler, Barkley, well not Kenyan Drake, but those are good running backs. What stands out is RB fifteen, RB eleven, RB twelve, RB seven RB fourteen. Those aren't great numbers. Yeah, Well, the first off, it's it's average points per game, so it's not you not accounting injuries into that. So I'm sure

some of these might be a little bit inflated. But that's the kind of thing that scares me a little bit too, is these You're drafting that RB three right now, yeah, and these are nobody's getting close to that exactly. I think the one thing we should say is that these I think Jonathan Taylor might be better than all of these running backs in terms of actually running the football.

Maybe sa Quan you can at least have an argument, but David Joe, Austin Eckler, Kenny Drake, Jonathan Taylor is better than all these running backs, and he finished as an RB one before. Yeah, so I think that's worth mentioning. And just for the sake of people, I'm guessing you're like,

what about Trevor Lawrence, Kenny Pickett. Those were like the good running backs that I had listed, and then then the running backs that didn't finish as hot, So Pittsburgh Kenny Pickett, nag Harris Rby twenty Jackson, So yet Trevor Lawrence, James Robinson Rby twenty three, Zach Wilson gets drafted, Michael Carter, I'll be thirty five, and then so it's funny Dwayne Haskins and then Adrian Peterson. Wow. Yeah, Adrian Peterson was at the obviously the bitter end of his career. This

is RB twenty eight. Okay, the exemptions were obviously Shortan Love and Trey lands Day. That's you know, that's not that's not very that's not data that suggests that Jonathan Taylor is likely to live up to RB three, which is really interesting when they do bring in the rookie quarterback and obviously, you know the rookies are learning on the job, and that doesn't you know a lot of defenses are going to be able to have the luxury to just key in and this case on Jonathan Taylor.

A quick question. If let's say the Colts drafts, Yeah, let's go, let's go Will Levis. Okay, say they take Will Levis. Yeah, do you think that Will Levis leads Jonathan Taylor to to similar numbers what Carson Wentz did when Jonathan Taylor was Darby one. Do you think Will Levis can do what Carson Wentz was in Indianapolis. Carson Wentz is so polarizing that way. Um, you know, I guess if historically no would be the answer, he wouldn't

quite be at the Carson Wentz level. And I don't have Wentz's number from twenty twenty one in front of me, but I want to say he's through like twenty eight touchdowns, which is not likely for a rookie to get to and so probably not quite no. And so I don't I don't know that you can say, yeah, well, will Levis in his rookie especially him in particular, because he's he's a very polar he is super polarizing quarterback. Yeah, I don't know that. I don't think he would spur

that to you. No, I don't, Yeah, I don't think so. I think John, I think John had. I feel like when we were just watching that season when you finished RB one, it's a lot of breakaway want runs like something that I don't know well can be replicated. But then again, John Davis just a beast. When he's healthy, you know he's gonna be a top five back in the league. So I guess I'm I'm I'm a hold on the RB three, right now let's see some more pieces, kind of get at that offense and maybe all a

better decision. I wanted to get better value on Jonathan Taylor off the bad season. RB three is not the value. Yeah, i think I'm out at RB three. I think I'm gonna let somebody else take him at pick three or pick four of a draft. I'll take you know, I'll take Travis Kelsey. There you go. I'll play it safe and go a different direction. Thank you, Tyler, and thank you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly Micro addition. Back tomorrow with another player to break down. Do we preview

the player? Should we do that? Let's do it. Let's talk about Derek Carr. New landing space for Derek Carr, surrounded by young, talented weapons. It's very exciting. What do we think about Derek Carr's prospects twenty twenty three? Talk to you tomorrow, everybody,