FFW Micro - JK Dobbins

You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro a deep dive on one player in just five to ten minutes. Now, here's your host, Paul Charge. It's another edition to Fantasy Football Weekly Micro. These are our weekday editions where we break down one player deep dive style and oh, one of my favorites every year. One of my favorite players coming up right now my coast is Tyler Knabeleie Tyler. Who are we talking about today?

We are talking about JK. Dobbins.

JK Dobbins. I love this guy. I have every year. I've been optimistic. I've backed him a bunch of times. Two years ago I think I've had him in like my top five or six. Then he probably blew out his ACL. Last year optimistic didn't work out. I'm back on board again with JK. Dobbins. Will break him down in great detail in just a second. First a reminder, we have brand new, fresh private leagues, public leagues, public contests at Guillotine leagues dot com. This is the freshest,

Yeah, I when I play guillotine leagues, I am like the definition of I'm just not trying to finish last. I will have the worst team weeks one through ten. I do not care because I'm not the worst, exactly the second worst. The second worst team, yeah, wee one through ten. But because I feel like I drafted just like a whole bunch of guys. They're just gonna get like nine points or ten points. I feel like I

Got to you got all your fast, That's the that's the easiest path to victory right there. Easier said than done.

Yeah, by risk ky reward.

Yes, you want to go safe, safe safe players in the guillotine league, and we love it. Let's talk about JK. Dobbins and how safe he might be. I think safer then a lot of people think.

I think I would be those a lot of people, Well, all right, he was. He was the are you fifty six?

Last year?

He obviously missed some games RB thirty four and average points per game and he's currently going off the board is RB seventeen. I got him no apparent reason. I think of my cheat sheet, I've got him going like twelve.

That's I'm out on that.

Yeah, I know you're not. That's fine, that's fine.

I'm totally well, let's talk about it.

So the hope is obviously for this year, is that he's another year moved from the a CL Hopefully he's not limping out there like he was last season, and.

He won't be.

I think he will look closer to his rookie year self, the guy we drafted him to be kind of before the the ACL that was like what a week before the season or something like that.

It was, Yeah, it was about a week before this is.

Like Pop already done their draft.

I had JK. Dobbins all over the place. Yeah, and I had in one of a couple of my leagues. I doubled him up with Gus Edwards, so I had.

Dobbins and Edwards.

Dobbins blows out his ACL and I'm like, oh, well, at least I got Gus Edwards. Now I got I've got like the go to guy. And I'm like, two days later Gus Edwards, same injury.

Did you draft Tyson Williams too well? Did?

I picked him up in some leagues just trying to get something out of that spot that did not work out.

Did not work out at all.

So he started the year he didn't He didn't play the first I think it was three weeks of the season, comes back for a couple of games.

Gets hurt.

Yeah, didn't look good doing it exactly, clearly favoring one leg. It's like you shouldn't even been out there.

Yeah.

And then he comes back toward the end of the season and he put together a couple of nice string of games. He had back to back one hundred plus rushing yards in weeks fourteen and fifteen, and then he had ninety three rushing yards in week seventeen. So at least we saw some signs of him kind of returning to the guy he was before the injury, yeah.

Which is not that uncommon with the ACLS, right, I mean not everybody's gonna be Adrian Peterson, where like six months off for racecl you're off running for two thousand yards. That's it doesn't normally work that way, you know. And for Dobbins, clearly he came back too soon. He wasn't ready. You know, God love him for trying, but he wasn't ready.

JK.

Dobbins, it's a similar story. Came back too soon, had a good December, but nobody thinks he's back. I do.

You dive into some of the stats and they're kind of just I would say, weird, because we all agreed that Dobbins didn't look like himself. But when you dive into someone like the yards for carry, he was five. He had finished with five point seven yards per carry, which was tied with Khalil Herbert for first in the entire league.

How about that? Which it is insane And again for guy wasn't healthy and no threat in the passing game for most of this year. Right, Yeah, you know that Pat once or shot Baateman went out. The passing game was dead in the water for Baltimore and was not they were and.

Mark Andrews too, he went out kind of for a couple of games in the middle of there too.

Sorry point, and you had.

To here's Dobbins when defenses know they're going to run the ball, and here's Dobbins running for five point seven yards. So Harry on a bad leg.

I saw that stat and I was like, oh, maze, because he didn't play a lot of games or kind of that kind of thing. And then you can find other stat He was fifth in rush yards over expected for a tent, which is I understand.

I don't understand that.

I will tell you how that's possible.

JK.

Dobbins is good. Tyler dude's good.

I won't say that. I won't dispute the fact that he's not good.

But when we get into some of the other guy I'm not taking pretty much any of them over JK.

Dobbins. I don't think.

All right, Well, we'll talk more about that offensive line. I love the fact that the Ravens are turning four of their five starters from last year's number two ranked run blocking offensive line. So this line is going to give opportunities to its running backs and that's primarily going to be JK. Dobbins. And the one change they made I mentioned four or five starters. The one change they made they got rid of their they're one bad player. They went from Ben Powers at guard to Ben Cleveland.

Not not this year, because I think when you look at the Todd munk In factor and you kind of, I mean, we don't know what this offense is gonna look like.

Every report is that they're gonna throw a lot this year.

See Con says they're gonna throw more.

Yeah, exactly.

I'll take his word for it.

And Greg Roman was the guy who just I want to run the ball, and I want to run this many times I possibly can.

Yeah, I got the stats here.

It's rush attempts by year in their rank in the league will start in twenty eighteen. They were first twenty nineteen, first, twenty twenty, first twenty twenty one to third, twenty twenty two to six.

Yeah, and well I'm part of it, you know. And maybe the only reason they dropped to six last year is because Lamar Jackson missed so much exactly. Yeah, Now, this is total rushing attempts. These are not running back rushing attempt Yeah.

Okay, Lamar Jackson does inflate him a little bit, but.

Yes he does.

But if I think if you pull Lamar Jackson even out of there, it's probably still going to be sure.

Yeah, absolutely, still a very run heavy offense, no doubt about that. And we don't know what Todd how much that'll change under Todd Monkin. But here's what I can tell you, this is not a great passing offense. No matter what Lamar Jackson is a limited passer. It's not a bad passer, but he's a limited passer, sometimes great, sometimes terrible. Rashad Bakman's got a lot to prove on whether or not he is a legitimate NFL number one

Again, I don't know, I just I just there's something about the fact that we had We haven't even seen him like finished this highs as a running back ever like in his career, because he's only played two one healthy year, healthy year year. I don't remember exactly I should have had that, but he was in a crowded backfield that right, exactly, and then he was because it was mark Ingram. It was godsad words, and then Dobbins did come on the later fact of the year.

That's why he was being.

Drafted so high that next year, like me exactly, and then this year get ACL So now we're here. So now there's too much risk for me going into this year that we're just not getting with some of these other running backs. And I just can't buy in on the fact from a guy who is not going to offer you anything in the receiving game.

He's a pure on the ground runner.

Seemingly, Lamar Jackson's gonna take some of his red zone carries.

Mark Anders not a lot.

Jackson doesn't do a lot of red zone stuff. He'll score and he does some, but he's not Josh Allen and he's not Jalen Hurts. Where the balls at the two?

Yeah, I agree to go to plays to the quarterback. I agree. JK.

Dobbins has double digit touchdown probability if he plays seventeen games.

I think the ceiling is like Miles Sanders from last year for JK. Dobbins, a guy who's gonna get used a lot in the red zone. He's gonna get all the red zone carries but he's not gonna offer you much in the in the receiving game, and like, yeah, he he might be the wideceiver one in a very high rushing attack offense. But I just don't see how he ends up like a I don't know, like a like a Dalvin Cook or someone like that from last

Dobbins this year.

All Right, I'm I'm a lot more optimistic, I think, and I don't. I don't the Miles Sanders. I understand the Miles Sanders comparison, cause Sanders doesn't catch a lot and Dobbins doesn't catch a lot. But Dobbins is gonna get a lot more work. He's gonna be like sixteen carries a game, and Dobbins isn't gonna get sniped at the goal line for ten touchdowns like Jalen Hurts just did.

Okay, and where you say you have himranked white like look running back twelve?

I think am I chie cheet? I love JK. Dobb Okay, I'm in. I'm back in again. Ready, I'm ready to get hurt all over again.

That's okay, Let's play the game. All right, Let's do the game. Kenneth Walker RB fifteen.

Kenth Walker's got too many he's got He's got a crowd of backfield. But I don't like I'd go Job, I'd go Dobbins.

All right.

I'll definitely go Kenneth Walker because I think he's a better runner than than JK.

Dobbins. I'll love Kenneth Walker. Aaron Jones RB sixteen.

I love Aaron Jones, but I've I've had Aaron Jones on so many teams the last couple of years, and the usage is so frustrating. I can't do it. I would take Dobbins.

You think it's better this year without a Rodgers? Or God?

I hope, so God, I hope so all right, Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Jones a really really good running back, just languishing with the misuse in my mind.

I don't have to ask, but Joe Mixon RB eighteen.

Yeah, I'm off mixing. Yeah, We've talked about it in the previous shows. I just think what I saw last year was very troubling. Now, the fact they didn't backfilm mixing with you know, more competition in the backfield is optimistic.

I thought, I'm sure he was gonna be off the roster, but they've pretty much done nothing to suggest that they're gonna get rid of what they're gonna just give our like carries to Chase.

Brown and Trayvon Williams, not like.

It just doesn't it seem likely.

It doesn't seem like that's just mix makes It's the.

Perfect guillotine guy. You're gonna get him in, like if an eighteen team draft, you're gonna get him in, Like I don't know, round four or five, I'm an eighteen team guillotine league. And it just he's gonna be just good. You know, he's gonna give you your you know, like seventy yards, Yeah, score a few touchdowns here, and he's just gonna be good. He's gonna be a guy who doesn't get you chopped.

I'll take Dobbins over mixing, all right, Right now, I got youah h yeah, alright, Miles Sanders, who we just compared him to Army nineteen. I'm telling you, I'd rather.

I'd rather have the Ravens lead running back than the Panthers lead running BA.

But I think Miles Sanders has there. They're too mean.

I don't like it's coach talk. But they're talking about three down roll for Miles Standers. And if that's the case, Miles Sanders is a smash. We've seen bad like team. Bad teams have a lot of good fantasy running back products.

That's all can happen.

So I like I like Miles Sanders.

Okay, last one, Damian Pierce. Now you know how I feel about Damien exactly. RB twenty is a travesty, a travisty. Houston's offense is going to be so much better than the version we saw last year. I love Damian Pierce. I'm gonna have him. I am higher than anybody else in the world. I'm a chiachet last year. I'm gonna have him higher than anybody else this year. Nobody watched enough Texans football to realize Damian Pierce is the single

So you're going Damian Pierce.

Damian Pierce. That's not a debt. Is that doesn't mean I don't love JK. Dobbins.

I want to toss one last one in just because you said JK. Dobbins RB twelve. I looked at the RB twelve and and ADP for best ball traves Etn is going as RB twelve.

I'm out on Etn. Tank Bigsby is gonna eat that.

Dude.

You watch you mark my words on this.

Want one more just because I need you to agree with me because it's all about me. Brees Hall RB eleven Hall, Okay.

Thank you.

Assuming you know, assuming the ACL is rounding in de form, he might be the I knew Adrian Peterson come back from what they said.

He's running twenty two miles an hour. I know that's crazy.

Now, you know you can run straight on the ACL for a long time. It's all the cutting and everything that's the big thing. So but still the twenty two miles per hours are very promising. Yeah the sound of that. Thanks for listening to this edition of Fantasy Football Weekly Micro Edition. We're back with another player tomorrow in the full show on Friday. Everybody Fantasy Football Weekly is a