FFW Micro - David Montgomery

got him a little nervous. Good. Yeah, yeah, you like that. I like that petitive, that's right. Today's Fantasy Football Weekly Micro edition will focus on new Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery. I this is a very interesting case because where his ADP is right now, I think is very very interesting and I'm excited to dive into it. So he was last year. He finishes the RB twenty eight and average points per game. He's currently going off the board as the RB twenty one, which seems like a

pretty high. That's like a mid RB two, low end RB two. I guess yep, uh, he was. He had a pretty decent year lest year. Like, this is a guy who can he can make people miss. He was sixth and rush attempts per broken tackle. The only guys that were above him were Jonathan Taylor, Lamar Jackson, Damien Pierce, Romandre Stevenson, Derrek Henry. Those are good running exactly. And then at Jackson, ye, and then it's then it's David Montgomery.

He's not a bad running back, He's not. I think the most damning thing about David Montgomery right now is that Chicago let him go. Yeah, made no effort to sign him dead. They rolled into the offseason with the most cap space of any team and made no effort to keep David Montgomery. What do they know? What is it about him? Or is this just that they think Kalil Herbert is that good? Yeah? Maybe they just really like Cleil Herbert and thought they could kind of get

what they got from Dave Montgomery from Clio Herbert. And I think they only paid Dion to Foreman like a million or two. It was not a big contract all, so I think they thought they could get what they got just save a little bit of money and kind of a little bit of addition by subtraction. Right now, in Detroit without a doubt. The number one question on Montgomery is is he going to get the goal line touches that Jamal Williams got last year? And I don't

think we can say for certain that he. I mean, I don't think that Swift is going to get them. Let's just start with that. Because Swift only had four touches inside the five yard line last year. That's not those were those four were all carries all sorry to get some receptions from up close. Yes, um, yep, and that's I mean. And what Williams must have had twenty Jamal Williams was first and carries with twenty nine attemptine

five that turned into twelve touchdowns. Twenty nine attempts, twelve touchdowns. The next closest person for with attempts from inside the five was Zeke at nineteen, So ten more touches nineteen twenty is in a typical year is where your number one most used inside the five runner typically comes in. And as regular listeners to the show, no, because we talked about inside the five all the time. From inside the five, you're looking for a fifty percent touchdown rate.

So what we really wanted to see from Jamal Williams on those twenty nine attempts was closer to fourteen fifteen touchdowns. We got twelve. That wasn't bad. And then Williams scored a couple others along the way, but most of us were from up close. So I did a little digging on this, trying to figure out how many touchdowns we can get for Montgomery. Get this, Detroit ran the second most rushing plays from inside the five yard line forty

rushing plays from inside the five, second most. Only the Philadelphia had more, and it's because they loved to run their quarterback from inside the five. You could draw a reasonable conclusion, Tyler, that the Lions aren't going to run forty more times from inside the five, and that they'll even out their run to pass ratio a little bit more next year. But then I dug up their pass

stats from inside the five. They were second, and pass attempts from inside the five they were second, and run attempts second, and pass attempts from inside the five they're play. They kept getting tackled inside the five, and they kept having situations from inside the five, and they had an almost even number of run in pass plays from inside the five, which I found staggering that one team could run the second most runs and the second most passes

from inside the five. If you had a Monrail Saint Brown on your team last year and you watched red zone, the amount of times that he got tackled at like the two yard line was unbelievable. He should have like he should have like twenty touchdown last season from the amount of times he got tackled at the one. So you should break him down sometimes. Yeah, get well, you should dig into that data. But I'm going to show. Yes.

I also dope intoed like the inside the five stuff as well, because I was trying to, like you, I was trying to figure out how many touchdowns could we see from Dave Montgomery and how many carries that would be. So I took the top fifteen players and attempts from inside to five and calculated the average attempts per TD so and again the typical ratio were we love to get around a fifty percent ratio, So about two attempts

for everyone touchdown. Yeah, So there were two hundred thirteen attempts among the top fifteen guys of rushes inside the five and then eighty nine touchdowns. So on average, it took two point four rushing attempts, let's get one rushing touchdown. Montgomery's average over the past two seasons is actually better at one point nine attempts for touchdown, and he'd combine that with the high the tackles for broken percentage that

I mentioned earlier. So Montgomery just feels like a guy who he's not going to go down when he gets touched the first time. So let's just say this outright, David Montgomery's a better running back than Jamal Williams is.

Oh for sure, It's not close, right, yes, So you know, if we can get close to the same number of touches or even less, even if even if David Montgomery doesn't get twenty nine attempts, if he's closer to what is a more traditional twenty two attempts for a which is still a lot because he's better at converting those into touchdowns, he could still end up at the same

twelve touch down just from inside the five. Plus Montgomery is a way more dynamic run who's going to score more touchdowns from outside of the five yard line than

Jamal Williams did. Exactly, And I think one thing that you're not really worried about, but just intrigued by the DeAndre Swift factor in this whole thing, because I was a huge Swift guy last season, absolutely massive, and the just he never got the ball and never got a harry inside he got he was hurt, but then when he came back, he just felt like I was seeing a little bit too much of Craig Reynolds and Jamal Williams from my liking if I was a Swift owner.

So okay, okay, okay, whoa Swift would got hurt early? Yeah, missed a bunch of games, then came back and was clearly laboring on one leg, and they dialed way back as usage because they because every time they tried to keep using me kept reindering himself. So Swift could be a much bigger wild Carter healthy Swift, who was what was he a second round pick three years ago? I mean he's still he was. He was a special talent coming out of coming out of college. He's looked brilliant

in some plays. If Swift rolls into this season healthy, and he plays this season healthy, he can be I think a bigger spoiler, not inside the five, because I don't think that's his deal, but broadly he can siphon

up way more carries than he got last year. I think I agree with you in terms of I think in between like the twenties, I think swift is their guy because he has a lot of speed, His receiving profile is a lot better than pretty much anybody a lot of running backs in the league, and he's just a great, like you said, a great prospect. I'm just worried that I would just I want to see what they're gonna do in the red zone with him. Are they just gonna it's just gonna be okay, Dave Montgomery

time here you go. Or is swiftly gonna get a little bit more involvement inside the ten? Inside the five? So if Jamal Williams was good for twelve touchdowns just from inside the five and whatever sixteen on the season, what do you think give me just the touchdown total you think David Montgomery gets. So if we applied the Russian attempts per to Russian touchdown the two point four that I was talking about earlier, Let's say Dave montgomer gets twenty carries, which would be nine less than what

Jamal got last season. That's still gonna be eight rushing touchdowns from inside of the five. You do, but he's one point nine attempts per touchdown exactly. It might be even higher, but that might be ten touchdowns. I think Montgomery again, assuming it plays all season, I think he could be looking at a at a thirteen to sixteen touchdown season and he's going off the borders running back

twenty one. It'd be impossible for him to finish lower than running back twenty one on twelve thirteen fourteen touchdowns. That's that's if he gets the touchdowns though, So you if you I think if you, if you swept they getting the touchdowns, well, if you're just made that clear, I agree with Ben Johnson is still the offensive coordinator. I don't think that changes. He's got his inherent biases. He saw what worked last year and Jamal Williams worked.

I agree with you, I'm with you on this. I just think that it's always so risking when you're like I just if I need him to get touchdowns, but if he doesn't get touchdowns, he's not going it's gonna be like Jamal last year. If he doesn't get a touchdown, he's gonna have like eleven carries for thirty nine yards or something like that. I mean at eleven for thirty nine but in that range, well, those are the Jamal Williams non touchdown games. He killed you exactly, super dangerous

guy in Gayoteen four. Yes, yeah, Jamal Williams was. David Montgomery is going into this season as well. Although he can catch, I mean David Montgomery can catch. I mean, Swift is still I think the primary pass catcher out of that backfield. But unlike Williams, who really wasn't using that role at all, I think Montgomery gives them some pass catching options and if Swift does get hurt, unlike Jamal Williams, David Montgomery can be a twenty two touch a game guy and that could give him RB five

upside that Jamal Williams never had. DeAndre Swift never had. I think Craig Reynolds might be a bit more of a nuisance in that spot than you may realize. They resigned him. They'd like Craig Reynolds. Oh, I know they like him, but he's not. He's not siphoning off a bunch of work from David Montgomery. Yeah, no chance, we'll see. I just I think they like the running back by committee approach a little bit too much. All right, So who are the the running backs going getting drafted around

David Montgomery? Yeah, so let's see who you like? Uh in terms of like he's are the guys who went around him? So we got DeAndre Swift at RB twenty one, So he got David Montgomery was RB twenty one. Oh R star RB twenty My bad? Okay, Um, that's uh so clearly Mcgomery. I want the touchdowns. I've got touchdowns on my fantasy team. Gotcha, not close Montgomery. JK. Dobbins. Dobbins was sneaky good last year. Did you see the way he was running? Literally he was limping like while

he was running. But he's still averaged five and a half yards. He's gonna be a lot more healthy this year coming up. By the year removed from the ACL, I think I'm going to Montgomery because of the quality of overall offense. Okay, I think I take Dobbins there just from the pure rushing attack. I think Isaiah Pacheco RB twenty three. Let's say they don't go, say they don't draft him, he doesn't catch. Uh, too many other options to score. I'm going to Montgomery. Okay, Joe Mixon,

let's say he's ways for its incident it is. You don't think he Let's say he's on Cincinnati. He's in the same role he was last season. You rather have David Montgomery. Yes, I just think I'm out on Joe Mixon just watching watching him play. And I backed him in a lot of leagues last year because I loved the improved offensive line and the fact that he was going to get most of the work. And he still got most of the work. Dude didn't do anything with it. Man,

his runs were so pedestrian. He's still like a five touchdown game though. Take well, no, that was p Ryan's five touchdown game, wasn't it. Yeah? How many other games that he have touchdowns? And I'm still pretty sure he's fit like an RB ten last year in that offensive If he can just play the zecro, I'm fine with it. I'll take I think I take Mixon over Montgomery just because I think if, like again, if he's there, well, they got some leagual stuff going on and we'll see

all that shakes out. But too Yeah, all right, last one cam Acres RB twenty five Now, Acres did look pretty dynamic late in the season. He looked fully recovered from the achilles injury. But man, he killed fantasy owners for three months and that that team still doesn't you know, even when they bring back Cooper Cup, you still have a terrible offensive line. Uh, Stafford's a huge question mark right now. I can't do it. I can't. I would

not take that. I would not take Cam Akers. You know, we just I just gave you a scenario where David Montgomery is a legitimate top five running back. If DeAndre Swift it gets hurt again, Montgomery turns into twenty two touches a game and a top five running back. Cam Akers doesn't have that in any scenario. Yeah, the way the season starts for him, because it was the first opening night, he got like two carries and everyone's like,

what is going on here? We just spent a fifth round pick on him and he got like two carries, Yes, and then it didn't really get better than that, Remember, I mean, he just he languished for a long time, and then then Baker came in the team for two weeks and yeah, you know all of that. Yeah, after all that stuff, like I would be surprit the way this running back classes and the draft, they're gonna draft someboddy and they're gonna want to use them. I think

I think you're probably right. Kyen Williams is not the answer there either, So no, I was hopefully would be, if only because everybody else stunk. So I'm like, oh, let's try Kyran Williams. But that didn't pan out at all. Um. And it's such a deep draft from running backs, by the way, coming up this this coming, I think this week's Fantasy Football Weekly on Friday will be about rookie running back. So we'll have a ton of got so many good running backs of this draft class. Oh geez.

Every time every time I start digging into a new running back out of this draft class, I'm like, hey, looks awesome this guy. There's so many great guys. I'll just say quick, my guy is Kendre Miller. That's my guy. It is he is. I love Kendra Miller, Tank Bigbee. I loved Okay, okay, just because of the name or good it started with. That's a cool name. I should

check him out. And I'm watching the film and go, oh man, and I'm surprised He's moved up a lot, and it felt like the Tank Bigsby steam has moved from round seven, round six more to like round four and five. As people are digging into his film and knowing you had like no help around him, terrible offensive line, bad offense in general, and they just look at what he did with special moves. Tank Bigsby's good. Yeah. I'm not saying he's he's in the you know, the time.

I'm not saying he's a top two three round guy, but I think in the right landing spot, he's gonna be good. Yeah. All right, Well, we'll talk more rookies later. Thanks for listening. It's it's probably our longest we got off track. It's probably our longest of the Fantasy Football Weekly. Micro's back with more next week. If you have an idea for a guy you'd like us to talk about, David mctgomery. You came from Twitter, Uh, please let us know.

I'm at Paul Charchi and Tyler is at Tyler kennabilely k n A E B L e