FFW Micro - AJ Brown - podcast episode cover

FFW Micro - AJ Brown

Jun 05, 202310 min
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Episode description

In his first year in Philadelphia, AJ Brown was an every-week helper. Is his outlook as positive for 2023? Charch and Tyler Knaeble make a case for an even better season ahead.

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.

Speaker 2

Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now, here's your host.

Speaker 1

Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. Micro addition, I am Paul Charchian, co host as usual, Tyler Canablee Hi Tyler.

Speaker 3

Hello at PPR Tyler On Twitter.

Speaker 1

At PPR Tyler. Yes, new Twitter handle for those of those that have been following you. It just converts over. We don't have to do anything on our side, which is good news. I should mention Gillotine League's available. The season has just opened. We've got a fresh new app coming. You're not gonna see it right now right now. It's the old app coming up in uh probably the second part of June. All new app coming for Guillotine Leagues at Gillotine leagues dot Com. Strongly encourage you to try

it out. You're for all about the format.

Speaker 3

You know how it works.

Speaker 1

Eighteen team start the season, no head to head, The low scoring team gets cut and that entire roster goes with the waiver wire, where bidding mayhem ensues its total pandemonium. It's roster building like you've never seen before. It's anxiety. It's all the great stuff in the Guillotine League. You can get into a private league or a public contest.

Speaker 3

Who are we breaking down today?

Speaker 1

Tyler?

Speaker 4

A top tier Round one wide receiver AJ Brown?

Speaker 1

Oh?

Speaker 3

AJ Brown?

Speaker 1

Yes it is, he's coming off.

Speaker 3

What a great move.

Speaker 1

Howie Rosen's the best executive in football.

Speaker 3

It's not close.

Speaker 1

What a great decision it was to bring in AJ Brown, a key component to how they made it to the Super Bowl, almost won the Super Bowl, and he immediately blows up right, He's languishing in a Tennessee offense that only loves Dearrick Henry goes to Philadelphia with a balance stuff. They run plenty there too, but they also found ways to throw the ball and be much more totally effective there as well. Give us a little recap of what we saw from AJ.

Speaker 3

Brown twenty twenty two.

Speaker 4

He finished as the receiver six, and he was the wide receiver eight and average points per game. And he's currently going off the board wide receiver six, right, yeah, right, where he finished exactly.

Speaker 3

And he's more of a volume guy.

Speaker 4

Last year than we ever seen in Tennessee because I mean, yet there Henry, so you're not gonna throw as much. But yeah, I mean we just saw a different side of it AJ Brown. But we still saw the explosiveness that you love to see.

Speaker 1

There was a lot to like last year, career highs in every statistical category.

Speaker 3

I think he.

Speaker 1

Benefited from better quarterbacking, better cast around him. Right, DeVonta Smith, you had to account for, Dallas Goddard you had to account for. I think those were big things. O great running game that defenses had to account for. So unlike Tennessee, where teams went in and just said, we're not gonna get beat by Derrick Henry and AJ Brown. We're gonna just take those two guys away and make Tennessee beat us.

Speaker 3

Some other way.

Speaker 1

With Eagles, they had way too many weapons for me to do that. And AJ Brown had a lot of big games.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and he was also seemingly a safe play last year. I mean, among wide receivers with twelve plus games played, a J. Brown had the second fewest finishes.

Speaker 3

Outside the top thirty love it. The first was Jamar Chase.

Speaker 4

It's a good company to be in, and he had double digit Fantasy points in fifteen of his seventeen games.

Speaker 1

That's fantastic, right, especially not to make this all about guillotine leagues, but in the guillotine league, we're just not You're looking to not finish last. Having a guy give you double digit fantasy points fifteen out of seventeen weeks golden.

Speaker 3

So huge for aj Brown.

Speaker 1

The situation this year is almost totally unchanged.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I know right, it's and there's even more like upside for some How do you say it? I guess like the like ceiling because if DeVante, if anything happens to Devonte Smith, AJ Brown is like he's the guy. He's not just like a one a where Javonta Smith might be one, be he is the number one, and then everyone kind of filters in after that. So I think he could even see a better season than he did last season.

Speaker 3

See I would.

Speaker 1

I would contend that I think he's better with Demanta Smith on the field. Smith such a different receiver, and he's so fast and he draws, you know, defenses away, and this is not a deep receiving depth chart in Philadelphia, it's not. So I don't want defenses to have to you know be able to really converge on AJ Brown. But where I do think he gives you some upside this year. I think the touchdown. I think his touchdown potential is still untapped here.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and he I mean he finished number two in total touchdowns last season my wide receivers.

Speaker 3

But it feels like he could have one of those nuclear.

Speaker 4

Not maybe like not Randy Moss two thousand and seven nuclear, but like he could have fifteen touchdowns.

Speaker 3

Would be crazy.

Speaker 1

He could, It wouldn't be crazy, right, I Mean it's the big body, right, So he's such a great target if you're gonna throw, if you're at the five yard line and you're gonna throw a pass, he's all he has to do is, you know, take about six steps forward, turn and just launch a launch a rocket at AJ Brown and that big body, the big catch radius.

Speaker 3

Right.

Speaker 1

But then also he's so good at yards after catch. He finished last year number two in yards after catch. Dude, can just you know, he's one of the few wide receivers who can just legitimately break tackles.

Speaker 4

Yeah, he finished top four in a lot of categories, kind of like how we did with Geno. I'm just going to run through the stats that he finished top four.

Speaker 1

In Gino Smith. That was in h that was in Tuesdays FFW Micro.

Speaker 4

Yes, So receiving yards number four, total touchdowns number two. We mentioned that yards after catch number two, yards per route run number two, yards per target number four, yards per team pass attempt number two, and target rate versus man who's number one in the league.

Speaker 3

Man.

Speaker 1

That is some devastating numbers. Yeah, and some of those I mean directly correlate to fantasy exactly, like yards per route run. Yes, we care about that. Yet that we care about that, we care about yards, touchdowns. There's a lot of things that we like about that. Demanda Smith emerged as a really good player. Now he had had the you had a good rookie year, but not necessarily

like an eye popping rookie year. But year two, one hundred and thirty six targets for DeVonta Smith, twelve hundred yards, seven touchdowns. There's a you would think, Well, let me ask you, Tyler, did you believe DeVonta Smith and that level of production helps or hurts AJ Brown?

Speaker 3

I do think.

Speaker 4

I don't know, because you get, like I said, you can make the argument for either way. I do think it helps for his I think his long term, like season long kind of status in terms of you're right, he's not going to get that double cover like sometimes we do see with Justin Jefferson where he will get double covered the entire game. And there's games where Justin Jefferson has where it's like one catch or two catches.

Speaker 3

For thirty forty yards.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and I don't think that can never happen with not never, but with AJ Brown it's gonna be a lot less likely that you're going to get a couple like three or four games of those, which I think we saw what Justin Jefferson had a couple games of those, which is why he AJ Brown finished inside the top thirty a little bit more than Justin Jefferson did last season.

Speaker 3

A J.

Speaker 1

Brown's value is already high. He's gone off the board wide receiver six. I think we believe that's approximately right for him. Dynasty value is potentially even higher because Jalen Hurts is great.

Speaker 3

He's young.

Speaker 1

AJ Brown redid his deal when he came to Philadelphia year ago, so he's got a lot of runway left in Philadelphia.

Speaker 3

He's young.

Speaker 1

I mean, it's there's probably I don't know. He's ADP six in Redraft. He might be ADP four three in Dynasty.

Speaker 3

Yeah, and in Dynasty, who would you. Let's let's do the ADP game, but we'll go Dynasty edition for okay, Dynasty edition of age. Yeah.

Speaker 4

So right now, Garret Wilson is the wide receiver three, and according to keep trade Cut for Dynasty Football, on A. J.

Speaker 3

Brown's wide receiver four.

Speaker 1

I'd rather have Brown because I know who the quarterback is. I don't even know who Jeft's quarterback is next year.

Speaker 3

Exactly. That's my thing too, is you?

Speaker 4

The quarterback stability is such a such a thing you need to pay attention to in dynasty leagues because like even Justin Jefferson, like if curse gone this season and they have like a rookie quarterback, that's gonna hurt Justin Jefferson quite a bit.

Speaker 3

Yeah.

Speaker 4

So it's one of those almost certainly a least short term yeah exactly. So, uh yeah, I'm taking a J. Brown for sure over Gara Wilson as much? Is that like Gara Wilson?

Speaker 3

Yeah, we love garat will all right.

Speaker 4

With switching back to Redraft, here we go ADP game Cooper Cup wide receiver four and A J.

Speaker 3

Brown's wideceiver six.

Speaker 1

Right now, Cups had a schedule by all like Hounds. It looks like he's gonna be ready for the start of the season. His injury was very early last year, so he's had gonna have almost a full year on it.

Speaker 3

I can't.

Speaker 1

I can't quit eight. I can't quick Cup. He's you know, he was on pace to be fantasy receiver number one before the injury.

Speaker 4

He was number one in average points per game last year. So I'll take Cup yep, I'll take up two digs steph on Diggs wadeceiver five.

Speaker 3

I'll take a J. Brown.

Speaker 1

I mean, Digs is great too, These are all great players. Brown gives me like you were talking about that that twelve touchdown fourteen touchdown upside the digs does not have.

Speaker 3

I agree.

Speaker 4

I'm definitely taking I'm digging Brown. I've been taking Digs over Brown, but now like after kind of right, I switched over.

Speaker 3

He want to go a J.

Speaker 4

Brown over stuff on Diggs? All right, DeVante Adams wide deceiver seven.

Speaker 3

I'm so out on Adams. This Garoppolo stuff is crazy. It is.

Speaker 4

It's like, oh yeah, he might get cut and they could save all the money, don't have to pay him anything.

Speaker 1

And the depth chart is so thin behind Garoppolo, there's and you know, Devanta Adams talking about leaving the team.

Speaker 3

I look, I really don't like this.

Speaker 1

They got the weak arm that Garoppolo's got. I you know, no downfield stuff coming for DeVonta Adams. I'm I'm right now my most recent ranking, which I haven't published up at their coming. I believe I have a wide receiver twelve for Dad, so obviously AJ Brown.

Speaker 4

We'll see what how much DeVonta Adams likes Trey Lance throwing in the ball in twenty twenty three.

Speaker 3

It could be that way. Yep. Yeah, I'll take a J.

Speaker 4

Brown and last one, fellow NFC East rival Cede Lamb wide receiver eight.

Speaker 3

Loves CD Lamb.

Speaker 1

He ghostly stretches where he disappears more than a J. Brown does, and I don't like that.

Speaker 3

I'd go I go a J.

Speaker 1

Brown. I think I think America's got the consensus. I think the consensus is right.

Speaker 3

I'd go a J.

Speaker 1

Brown over at ceed Lamb, but not.

Speaker 3

By a lot. I'm with it.

Speaker 1

Yep, all right, thank you, Tyler, great job. I hope you've enjoyed this Fantasy Football Weekly micro edition, we encourage you to check out Guillotine Leagues dot com for the new, freshest, funnest way to play fantasy football. Will be back with more fantasy footb a weekly.

Speaker 3

Thanks everybody,

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