Everything you need to know about the AFC and NFC north

I mean technically yes, yeares Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. Hello, guys, helu. Last week we broke down everything you need to know about the a f C and NFC East. This week it's the North. We turned to the North. Yes, the North remembers the North? Room? Is that how that goes? Well? They King of the North? What's King of the North? Was King of the North. We're gonna be king Kings of the North's a f C and NFC North. I have no idea what you guys are talking about. Correct.

We will give you a rundown on how each of the offenses are going to work for the eight teams that comprise the a f C North in the NFC North, and we will answer the question about the riskiest players to draft compared to a DP and the most upside players compared to a d P. We begin with the Baltimore Ravens and what has become one of the most fascinating offenses in the NFL. Brian Yeah, and Baltimore added to it in the draft. Uh obviously drafting J K. Dobbins.

Everyone knows that in the second round, Devin Duvern a wide receiver in the third, and a couple of guards in the third and fourth round to protect Lamar Jackson. But I really don't want to talk about the running backs are wide receivers when it comes to Baltimore and re draft this year. It's just a very dicey scenario for both. It's all the two players were talking about here is Lamar Jackson. Of course, let's start there, and I want to go high level drafting Lamar Jackson in

the early rounds. Right now, Fantasy Pros has him as the nineteenth overall player off the board quarterback one, so that's mid second round. UM. Last year, L Jacks clearly won a lot of people a lot of money, But you got him in the ninth, tenth, eleventh round last year, I did. He can win you that your league this year with those same numbers, he is the potential to do it, but obviously the price tag is exponentially higher.

And this is a classic case. So I was all four l jacks maybe in first overall and redraft a few months ago. I've totally wavered because this is a classic case of he can certainly win your league for you if he puts up those numbers even though you're paying the first round price tag, but he can lose it for you big time if he doesn't replicate those

numbers with the first second round price tag. So he has obviously the highest risk of any player on the Ravens right now, because you'll pay the most for him by a long shot, compared to any any other raven right well. The rest of them are going at mid round or lower for the most part, except except for Mark Andrews, and that's where I'm going to now, and he has the highest upside even though he has a

pretty empty price tag himself. Thirty third overall, uh go on his tight end three obviously behind Travis Kelsey and George Kittle. Speaking of Travis Kelsey and George Kittle, those two combined for ten touchdowns on two hundred and forty three targets last season. Mark Andrews scored ten touchdowns on just ight effing targets last half. Andrews played fifteen games last year, only saw eight targets on seven occasions yours numbers. In those seven games. He should have seen more. This

is where I'm getting a lot of usage. It is, but when he had when when he had at least eight targets, he went eight for one oh eight in a touchdown, eight for one, twelve in a touchdown, for thirty one in a touchdown, six catches yards, two for thirty nine that's the one did then six for fifty three and two touchdowns and six for nine three and two touchdowns. Good things happen when you're target Mark Andrews. Hayden Hurst obviously gone, so that's a huge factor. So

the usage is going to go up for Andrews. Nick Boyle is still there, of course, who cares. So if you're going early tight end, I'm gonna reach and take Mark Andrews in the second round ahead of Travis Kelsey and George Kittle. If I'm gonna intend to take them in the first, I will fade Kelsey and Kittle because I think Andrews could outscore both of them this years with another uptight end. Zinger right there, number one tight end and Mark Andrews number two. Alright, so number one. Kidding,

I'm kidding. I might have said that. I've said in the past he could. All right, So let's talk more broadly about just how this offense works. Do you see it being materially different than it was last year where it was a most run heavy offense in the NFL. You know they're totally gonna flip the script and just go Eric Corey, I'm no, Yeah, I think it's gonna

pretty much be the same, though. John Harbo did say just recently that Lamar Jackson's last thing that he needs to get into his game is the distance the deep downfield passing. And I think that that something that they've been concentrating on because it's these corners going single coverage against these wide receivers all the time, and they're throwing eight in the box and trying to spy Lamar Jackson

all the time. There something's got to give there if they want to get this offense to the next level. And Lamar Jackson has come out and said he wants to pass like Patrick Mahomes. This is the next evolution of Lamar Jackson, and maybe he can do it. He's certainly athletic enough to do. I'm sure Patrick Mahomes wants to be able to run like Lamar Jackson. You can want it, but he does not of the natural passing talent that the Holmes has. But he's not that far off,

and I do think they will. He'll be a better pass here in year three than he wasn't year two. Year two he was way better than he was in year one. So I do believe that we will see more of a balanced offense in Baltimore this year. And I think his receivers are tremendous upside opportunities. You look at where Hollywood Brown fits in now a second year after missing you know, played hurt for almost all of last year, now comes into his second year, which is

oftentimes when receivers blow up. I'm fascinated by Brown. He cost you so little, and to me, he would be the upside guy for Baltimore. Let's go to Pittsburgh where Ben Roethlisberger returns, and I think we're assuming we're gonna get some normalcy back to an offense that was very inconsistent last year. Well, let's talk about that offense. Last year, they finished with the fewest passing yards in the league, they were bottom ten, and rushing yards they had the

seventh fewest points scored. But they did have injuries to Big Ben, James Conner, Juju was a little bit dinged up, and Antonio Brown left the team last year. Yeah, that was there was a lot going on in that team. Yeah, so they were left with Mason Rudolph and yeah, that guy Duck Hodges. Uh. They still did finish eight and eight, which is a pretty testament to Mike Tomlin's coaching ability, and they were really underrated defense that was awesome by

the second half of last Patrick. It helped they were one game shy of Tennessee for that final wild card spot, and everybody's talking about Tennessee is, you know, possible contenders. Pittsburgh was one game off of their face. Um. But everybody's reliving last year, which is why the Steelers only have two players going in the top one twenty of

a DP right now. Both of them are going in the fourth round, and that's James Conner who's going at forty four and Juju Smith Schuster who's going at forty five, running back twenty and wide receiver nineteen, respectively. So there's there's a lot of upside on this offense because it's only been a few years since they were just a high flying passing offense. And that's why my my high volume target and the guy that I'm looking for in

this offense is Ben Roethlisberger. Well over five hundred pass attempts in five of his prior six healthy seasons, over six hundred past attempts and two of those five multiple passing touchdowns in seventy one percent of his games over the last three years. He has the number nine offensive line according to Pro Football Focus, who had an eighty one point sex six sex that. I thought it would top that at sixty. But where is where is where's

Roethlisberger's ADP right now? Because I bet he's going off the boarder like quarterback twenty two or quarterback eighteen. But he's going in the eleventh round of drafts right now, So I think he's a guy that you can wait on quarterback. He's the eighteenth quarterback off the board, and there's just a lot of good quarterbacks right now. So, Um,

that's why he's a guy that I can target. I can go running back, wide receiver, tight end in my first ten rounds and then get Roethlisberger in the eleven. That's sort of your upside guy who we're both thinking. I'll perform his ADP quite a bit. We'llt's flip it over in when Pittsburgh, what's the player that you're most nervous about compared to ADP. I think it's James Conner, and I think it's gotta be um. He had more than fifteen rushing attempts only twice last season. Uh, that's terrible.

He managed that feat seven times in He's really a pass catcher. But they have Benny Snell there, they have Jalen Samuel's there. Uh, they got Anthony McFarland, the new guy there, all of which could be in play to take touches from James Conner. And I know Pittsburgh's traditionally been a workhorse running back kind of organization. They just

don't have it. They don't have him right now. So, Uh, James Conner going into a contract here, They're gonna see what they got with these other guys to see if they need to spend another third round pick on a draft in the draft on another running back, But James Conner is the guy I'm avoiding at all costs. I

couldn't agree more. And I think if there was any lesson to be learned that from James Conner last year, and they know it, they can't make him a high volume guy because every time they did give him the ball more than a handful of times he got hurt. I mean it was it was all but guaranteed. So I don't think there's any scenario here he turns back into a workhorse because they won't let him out of fear that will keep getting hurt, which is what happened

last season. Two more guys I want to mention on that offense, Deante Johnson, Baby, his his trajectory is just skyrocket in ADP. Everybody loves him and he's going on right He's going off at one three right now, wide receiver forty nine, that's gonna be. He's gonna be up two or three rounds in a DP by the time we get to draft season and August. Rather of him than Juju Smith Schuster, I think a lot of people are are with you more um and one of your

favorite guys last year was Vance McDonald church. He had a terrible year, but he's free this year two hundred seventy nine and adp tight end thirty three, and he gets back, he gets Ben back. Eric Ebron is there who might sipen a few tight end looks. But but Vance McDonald wasn't completely terrible before, so he's a free tight end. He's like one of those guys you're grabbing a best ball league is your second or third tight ends.

Let's go to one. This is a new offense led by new head coach Kevin Stefanski, and it's gonna be run heavy. Stefanski has the highest run rate of any offensive coordinator over the past two years. He's got Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. That is the league's best one two bunch of rate mandated though well, you know clearly Mike Zimmer wanted to do that, but you know what, it worked, and he's got and if he didn't have talented backs, i'd be talking about a real regression in use.

But you've got Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Let's talk about how good they are and how sneaky similar they are. In usage, even though they're not built alike and the running game is different. Chubb is the bigger back, but he's shockingly elusive and fast. Chubb was Pro Football focuses number two rated back in elusiveness Nick Chubb now Hunt for his his his part. If we lower Pro Football Focus down to the forty four carries that Hunt had,

he only attes. Hunt becomes the number two back in elusiveness if we're looking at the whole league, if we lower the threshold down to just forty two carries. Um. So they're both very elusive backs. Obviously, both of them can catch. Hunts an elite past catcher, but Chub is also very good. And before Hunt showed up, Chubb had

three or more catches in six of eight games. I mean, they weren't afraid to use them that way, and they can continue to throw to Chub as well, although Hunt obviously is the better catcher, and it really both guys can do everything. They can run inside, they can run outside, they can catch the ball. They're gonna get a ton

of use here. In his first year's offensive coordinator. Last year, first full year, Kevin Stefanski got Kirk Cousins back on track and unlocked his best statistical season of his career. He's got a similar challenge with Baker Mayfield this year, who obviously regressed in most every way last season. But we've seen flashes of greatness from from Baker Mayfield, primarily as a rookie, and I think he's got an opportunity to the same thing here. Now the running game will click.

I think the running games almost a certainty to be good, and I think that means they'll ask Baker, especially to throw less often and in higher percentage plays, rebuild some confidence here. Last year Mayfield was like Mayfield's deep ball passing was terrible. He had a passer rating of one hundred six as a rookie on deep passes. Last year. That hundred six turned into seventy three as a passer

rating on deep passes. Um I think Stefanski is going to try fewer calls, more higher percentage plays, and even more on on the deeper stuff for higher percentage plays. Now he'll stefanciles used the run to set up deep shots, and we've mentioned that a couple of times. Now. Cousins had the NFL's highest passer rating last year on deep passes. The highest on deep passes to fancy, he can unlock some of that deep passing stuff. So guys, last year, Stephan Diggs was a was top ten in depth of

target at fifteen yards downfield. When you think a depth of target on the Browns, who's that Who's going to be the Steph Diggs guy would be O'Dell, That'd be Odell Beckham, can't be Jarvis Landry. Jervis Landry is like the Adam feeling of that team. Well, he's even shorter. If theeland can get downfield, Landry never does. So I think O'Dell remains sneaky viable here and is potentially poised for a nice bounce back season. Tight end to Austin

Hooper was a big free agent signing. Of course, tfan Ski is just middle of the pack for tight end usage, but Hooper is good. And I rolled together Kyle Rudolph stats and Irv Smith stats from last year into one guy, and the numbers are exactly what Austin Hooper put up last year. So I think you can look for another good season from Austin Hooper just like we saw last season. New offensive line is fantastic news for the Browns. They

put up. They signed Jack Conklin from the Titans, one of the better blocking offensive linemen in free agency, and then they drafted Jedderck Wills in the first round. These are massive upgrades of this offensive line. I love it. So who's the riskiest player to draft from the Browns? Nobody? You're all undervalued because of what happened last year. But just I'm gonna give you a name, just to give you a name. Jarvis Landry. He's going off in round five.

He has been four or five or six touchdowns in every season but one. He just he you know exactly what you're going to get from him. What about Nick Chubb though, remember we we can't broke it down a couple of weeks ago. Last year, fifteen carries inside the five for negative fourteen yards and two touchdowns. He's just a good He's just a really good running back. And

I have no problem. He's really good. Cream Hunt is great, is really good, and by ADP, I'd rather spend the fifth rounder on Kareem Hunt at RB thirty off the board. We did a podcast about it. Who's got the most upside for the Browns? It's probably Odell Beckham. Last year's ADP was the start of the second round. Now it's the fifth round and he's only a couple of spots ahead of Jarvis Landry. People don't like Odell Beckham and that's favorite in factor in do it here a little bit.

When we come back, Brian Johnson will detail his favorite team, which is who Day Who Day Day Who Day, Cincinnati Bengals. We'll tell you who they are when we come back. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi in, Matt Harrison, Brian Johnson with you. We're breaking down the teams in the North, the a f C North, the NFC North. We're on Cincinnati, Brian, this is your newly adopted favorite team.

And with Joe Burrow now leading what should be an improved passing attack with a j greenback uh Te Higgins, this has turned into an awfully interesting offense. By the way, is this the best offensive division in football? Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, It's pretty probably, It's pretty interestingly even Pittsburgh is probably the worst offense in this division. They're not terrible. NFC West might be in that conversation. In the West too,

it's got some um maybe Chargers Jeeps. Alright, Broncoes on the up and up. Anyway, let's you know, so now that we've got a new quarterback, we get a new talent wide receiver coming returning talents team, it's a brand. You just feel like a bit of a new team, even though the same coaching staff. How do you feel? How does this offense going to look? So it's got

to be different than it was last year? Yeah, it's Uh, it's kind of a star studded, sexy offense with Burrow at quarterback and he got Tyler Boyd, A J. Green who will talk about a little more very shortly, who's supposedly fully healthy, Tee Higgins who was drafted thirty third overall you just mentioned, and Joe Mixing of course. So this is looking like a fun offense on paper with not a great defense to uh on the other side of the ball. So for fantasy football purposes, uh, the

Browns are almost as sexy as the Bills. Bizarre world we live in, right, But I'm really worried about Joe Mixing here. He's crept into first round territory eleventh overall, going as RB eight. Um, I guess we should start with the hold out. He could hold out, So there's inherent risk right there. He's willing to hold out, he says, if he's not signed to an extension, but uh, hold out aside, let's assume he's not holding out. Hope he doesn't hold out. Um, Joe Mixon was kind of a

jekyl and hide last year. UH first eight games of the season he was the thirty third overall running back, but the second half he caught fire. Finished eleven overall at the position, and the underlying stats supported that as well. He finished fourth and broken tackles with twenty four in seventh in yards after contact with six five. But again, if you draft Mixing today in the first round, he holds out, you got Levan Bell two point oh from a couple of years ago, and uh Rodney Anderson waiting

in the wings. If that happens, and then but then then again you might get the bad Joe Mixon that we saw or maybe this comes a very pass heavy offense. So for as much as I love Mixing, he's clearly the highest, uh the riskiest player based on ADP for me, and you would think this guy could have been the riskies player based on ADP. But I'm going with the most upside in A. J. Green. I am banking on a bounce back for the thirty two year old turns thirty two at the end of July. Still got some

tread on the tires. He right now is going off fifty six overall. That's around wide receiver four. Um. Now, we all know he missed all of last season, missed seven games in twenty eighteen and six games in ten. That means Green has only played nine games in the last two years. But if you extrapolate games into a sixteen game season, it comes out to eighty one catches over twelve hundred yards and ten touchdowns. And A J's last full season came in seventeen when he went for

seventy five nearly eleven hundred yards and eight touchdowns. So A. J. Green steps into this suddenly very electrifying offense and it's fully healthy, and you're getting him at wide receiver twenty four. He still has top ten wide receiver potential if healthy. So I'm gonna roll the dice in the what is that the mid five fifty six overall because wide receiver is so deep. If A J goes belly up, I'll have someone on the bench, but the upside is certainly

still there for Green. You didn't you don't seem to have any hesitation about Joe Burrow being good and good early some but not any worse than Andy Dalton or who else played quarterback for Cincinnati last year. I should know. But yeah, that's some Jeff drisk about Jeff Burrow is he has pinpoint accuracy, and that's what he was really known for last year at l s U as he was one of the most accurate pastors, especially downfield. So that should translate, I mean that should even translate to

the NFL. They get a good offensive lineman back, uh that that's gonna be a really good offense. It's gonna be fun to watch. Plus their defense is still terrible, so they're they're gonna be playing four wide receiver sets. And the wide receiver you didn't mention is John Ross is a former first rounder who had a couple of great games last year, was a very good receiver or when he got run and now he's been relegated to like fifth options. It's a deep team. Let's just hope

makes it doesn't hold up. Joe Burrow I think is almost even money to win Rookie of the Year in a stacked, stacked rookie draft. It sounds about right. I think too. It would be in the conversation if Stu Beard wasn't there, kind of probably blocking him for the first six to eight games of the season. Burrow feels like the most pro ready quarterback in a long time, doesn't luck. Yeah, it feels just like an automatic and hopefully this is going to be a resurgence for the Bengals.

Their fan base certainly deserves it. Let's go to Green Bay, matt where they had the opposite draft, a draft that was universally listen to Paul Charchi and do they really did. If we have a need on this roster, we're not going to address it, damn it. We're taking the best player available no matter what. Uh. Let's talk about this Green Bay offense and how do you how do you think that works overall this season? So, the really nice part about the Packers is there's not a lot of

different options on the field in the passing game. You can narrow it down to two guys in the passing game that you will draft at all. Um. If you don't get Davante Adams, you can pretty much avoid all their wide receivers um and Aaron Rodgers is the other one. You don't think mvs just because they've they've jettison Geronimo Allison, They've got no you got an obvious answer at Alan Lazard is the next highest guy. He's going off the board at one seventy six. That's wide receiver sixty eight.

Then you've got Devin Funcius there. It's like they won't I'm serious, you won't be on the team. That's why for me, if I don't get Davonte Adams and I don't get Aaron Rodgers, I'm just out on the Packers passing games. On the other part, well, what do you even want? Do you do? You see Aaron Rodgers putting up a substantial but you you you had all the reasons why not to take Aaron Rodgers And uh he's going off the board at quarterback number eight right now,

uh seventy seven. Overall, By the way, there's only three players on the Packers roster that are going in the top third teen rounds of fantasy drafts right now, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, and then the top two rounds and Aaron Rodgers in the middle of the eight or seventh. So but the bad part is the running game is

the exact opposite of the passing game. All three backs should be in the mix for touches, and we've touched on a little bit before, and it's not going to be easy to decipher who's going to be the hot hand in any given week. So I mean, we have a J. Dillon, we have Jamal Williams, and we have Aaron Jones, and they're going at very different points in the draft. I should mention overall a very good offensive line. Green bad the number six offensive line according to Pro

Football Focus last year. Their line did allow pass rush pressure more often than twenty one teams in the league. So Rogers was under pressure, but he's such a wizard of at getting out of that. But they it took them the most time in the league. It took two point six seconds for them to allow pressure. He's holding the ball to it's because Rogers, you know, I think he's just it's because Davante Adams was hurt and nobody

was getting open. You could very well be right about that. Um, So here's my my target is A J. Dillon He's a two d fifty pound running back with a forte vertical. He's literally the heaviest running back in the NFL right now, and he has a top five combined vertical of any running back ever. Go figure. He's you know for his vertical, he's too He's a goal line back who can literally jump over the details. So he's the guy I'm totally targeting.

And obviously I'm avoiding Aaron Jones. We've harped on it over and over. He could get schemed out of game plans a lot this year. He was very touchdown dependent, and the Packers brought in Dylan as Jones is touchdown stealing vulture in his free agent year this they're gonna let Jones walk after this walking Uh, so'm I'm avoiding Aaron Jones and I'm getting out too early rather than too late. A J. Dillon is a good back, you

know the issue. You know, for all the heat that Green Bay took for drafting him in the second round, it wasn't because A. J. Dillon's not good. It's because they had so much need at other positions. You're staring at the greatest second round draft for wide receivers and years and you don't take one stuff like that. Don't draft from need, just don't draft the best player. That

means they did. That's what they did. Sam. The Portland Trailblazers drafted Sam Boobe because they needed a big Last thing I want to say on Aaron Rodgers is man. Did he post dud games last year? So many games that clocked in at like two thirty yards, zero touchdown, one touchdown. Those things murder your fantasy team. Yeah, it's a bummer. And I chuck a lot of that up to Davante Adams just not being healthy for most of

the season. Even when he was there after he came back, he wasn't fully there until the very tail end of the year. Minnesota's got a new offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, familiar name. Last year's offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski has gone to Cleveland, but the transition will be seamless because Stefanski was largely implementing Gary Kubiak's offense last year, same terminology and everything else. So Kubiak is a wizard with fantasy

running backs. He has unlocked unlocked massive seasons from I'm gonna love this list, Gerrell Davis Olandis, Gary Anderson, Clinton Portis, Steve Slayton, Arian Foster, Justin for Sett and last year, of course, Dalvin Cook. I went through twenty five years of Kubiak runners as an offensive coordinator or a head coach. It's basically impossible to find a talented runner who flopped

in a healthy season under Gary Kubiak. If you are even a middle tier runner, if you are justin for set or better, and you're in a Gary Kubiak off fence, you're having a good year. Did Kubiak leave the year that some of those guys fell off? Matt? I mean, Slayton wasn't around a long time, but he was like first round pick the following year and he fell just like an early round. Yeah, you don't want to be

there when Kubyak leaves. I can tell you that much, because that runner that you that the land is Gary's of the world or whatever. He leaves and all of a sudden, that guy tanks UM. So you still feel really good about the running, and you know they're going to They're going to continue to run. Zimmer wants it and Kubiak can do it. As an um. It'll be the second year implementing the zone blocking scheme for the Vikings offensive line that should get better in year two,

but they do have some moving parts here. They put his second round picked into presume starting left tackle as a Cleveland and that pushes last year's left tackle Riley Reef to left guard. They have some question marks at right guard, so this is still going to be an offensive line that has some transition, but year two in

the zone blocking scheme should get a little bit better. Um, assuming Dalvin Cook is playing you, he'll be the team's most important offensive weapon, and even more than anybody in the passing game, He'll get plenty of work. As I mentioned earlier. But here's your danger point, and this is why I've slid Dalvin Cook over the course of my

preseason here down my rankings. The more and more I think about it, you know, between all the injuries he's ever had and the fact that last year he got to a point in December where he was just worn down from use, I really think that they're gonna ratchet back the workload on him by ten to try to keep Dalvin Cook fresher at the end of the season. And that part worries me, and I think Kubias can

integrate Alexander Madison more often. If you put in a team running back league, Yes in Minnesota that it's a very good one. There. Passing game is in flux with Justin Jefferson taking over Stefon Digs spot. But the two players are very different players, and Justin Jefferson isn't gonna just become stuff on Digs. Jefferson is primarily gonna run from the slot of his college place came from the slot.

But I believe Jefferson gets immediate time in this offense because they don't have anybody else After Adam Feeling, Delan becomes the go to receiver for the first time in his life. Really is an extent and other than when Diggs had missed odd odd ball games here and there in the past, Deland's production without Diggs has been uber inconsistent. You don't think Thelan was go to and like Pop Warner, the first time in his life he's with the number one,

while first time it's a viking Um. I don't think that the loss of Digs ultimately helps deal in here. I mean took a lot of heat off of Thelon and now Feeland's got gonna get double coverage virtually every play, So any Justin Jefferson to basically replaced Diggs, they do. And he's good and we're gonna talk about him more in a minute. Um Diggs was among the league leaders in depth of target, and I think thelan will do

a little more downfield running than we've seen in the past. Uh. Second year tight end Irv Smith gets a bigger role this year as well. But that pesky cow Rudolph coming off a very good year. So those guys I think have middling fantasy value. He's a tight end vulture, which one Kyle Rudolph a little bit. So who's the riskiest player to out from the Vikings? I think it's Adam Feeling. He's going off the board at round three, wide receiver ten. He's expensive and hasn't proven that he can be a

consistent producer without another wide receiver there to help. So I think there's some risk there. And who's got the most upside. It's Justin Jefferson, the first round rookie going off the board in round twelve and wide receiver. Here's what he did last year at l s U. Justin Jefferson last year in a college season one hundred fifteen receptions, one thousand, five hundred yards and eighteen touchdowns. That's absurd,

absurd levels of production. He attacks the ball. Get this on his contested catch rate, So contested catchers, these are these are these are plays. This is a ball that's thrown where either guy could come down with it, Justin Jefferson or the defender. Jefferson a ninety two contested rights nuts. That kid's gonna be good. We'll take a break when we come back our five two teams. As we examine the offenses of the North, the f C North and

the NFC North. We'll tell you about Chicago and then Detroit, not Denver, Chicago, Bultomber sort of north west. It's really north like in terms of elevation of the ground. Let's go back in moments. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchy and Brian Johnson and Matt Harrison with you. If you want to follow us on Twitter, I am at Paul Charchy and Brian Johnson is at bt X J for sale. I don't mention any corporations out there. J. Why would you want to give it on? Did you

know you cannot make four digit Twitter? Handles anymore. Well, maybe there aren't any. Maybe they just said, you know, they're not available. It says it needs to be longer than Yeah, alright, Brian's got a it's got a gold mine, a billion dollar industry, right, probably retire on bt X. J X is gonna be tough. X makes it a little trick here. You need at least two more to make something happen. Matt Harrison is explosive output. Pat got it. We turn our attention to I'm not going to talk

about it. Bears led By led probably not bled By. Yeah, there will likely be a change of quarterback. Yeah, Nicholes the end, Yeah, Nicholes, all right, Chicago. Nick Foles obviously added a quarterback. They brought in Jimmy Graham, the corps of Jimmy Graham to play tight end. Then they drafted Cole Commit tight end. But by the way, I believe I'm not exaggerating. I think right this minute they have ten tight ends on roster. It's pretty ridiculous. That's too

many tight ends for me. The tight end lover of all commit can't be right? How is it just met? Is it right? Well? Again, not talking about oh, Cole, I want to talk, so we expect Nicholes to beat out. Thank you sorry, And you know, Nick Foles has never really lit up the scoreboard. He did it one time against the Raiders with the Eagles way back when that was a six touchdown. I think it was like seven seven touchdown. That was an amazing game. He's never put

up massive numbers. And the Bears, although their defense faltered big time last year, took a step back from this team is gonna play defense, and they're gonna want to run the ball, and just in limited turno turners, let's get to the running game. And David Montgomery. I'm hearing a lot of talk out there in the Twitter world about like people going to bat for David Montgomery. Yeah. Yeah. He looked at all the touches. They didn't draft anyone. He finished this RB twenty. I want RB twenty and

my team I don't want this RB twenty. I like here RB twenty. When you play all sixteen games in average within fifteen plus touches, if you're finishing in RB twenty, you're consistently below average. And he's he hit more than half of his games. He was outside of the top thirty at his position. The Bears are gonna run, uh you know, Montgomery and nine tight ends on the field at any given time, so so that might help with the blocking whatever. Take that. He's RV twenty, he's played

every game. He's gonna see two plus touches. Throw it out the window. Do not touch David Montgomery. He's not a good football player, all right. He's not a good runner, now, don't can we agree that? And we've seen it many times where rookie runners don't flash much that rookie year, but year two they look like a different guy. Don't you think there's an opportunity for David Montgomery to be a better fit in this offense, to be a better athlete,

you know whatever. The things that need to come together for him to be better. Better off offensive line could and should be better as well. I feel like you rookies that disappoint their rookie year tend to fall off the map entirely in the second third year, more so than than pop Off and Montgomery, all the underlying stats, all the overlying stats are awful. He can't catch the ball. He's probably the worst receiving running back in the NFL. Three cones there, of course, but check out these uh

stats for Cohen. I'm sorry, Montgomery catches a hundred and eighty five yards in one touchdown. That's pretty bad numbers on thirty five targets. So if you use pro football focuses yards per route run, which takes into account the number of snaps at a player runs a you know, a pass pattern, um, this provides a better indicator of production than yards per reception or even yards per target. Montgomery averaged zero point seven seven yards per route run.

That seems really bad. I could make it for points seven yards. Here are some numbers from running backs with similar final receiving numbers like the five the pitiful numbers. Remember zero point seven seven yards per route run for David Montgomery. Ronald Jones one point eight two, Rex Burkhead one point eight to Shady Corpsey McCoy one point to five, Patrick Laird one point to nine, Boston Scott two point three four, Mark Ingram one point five, DeAndre Washington two

point three. Mont comedies doesn't get done, and I don't want to have this reliable suck face in my lineup, so I'm not draft of him. I don't care if it's r I'll give one silver lining for David Montgomery. He he he had a bad yards per touch on the ground last year, only three point six yards per carry, But in his last five games he had four games where he was above four point three, So it seemed like he started to figure it out a little bit. At the tail end of the year. They started feeding

him the ball a little bit more. He didn't have the touchdowns in those last five games, but there was there was some signs of life there that he might not be completely terrible. I'm out entirely guys going later in redraft, Guys like Todd Gurley, Jonathan Taylor, he Mooster, DeAndre Swift, Cream Hunt. There's opportunity every day. I'm taking those guys over. Yeah, the problem is that that is the problem, and he gets the opportunities that it's a

big problem. Who's got the most upside then from the Bears, My boy Alan Robinson. He's really good, by the way, Younger than Michael Thomas, still twenty six years old. Allen Robinson right now going off the boards, going off the board as wide receiver sixteen thirty ninth overall. Finished last year at wide receiver ten with at quarterback. It seems like a happy trombone if you finished his wide receiver number ten. I'm so worried for Allen Robinson. Allen Robinson,

by the way, Uh, he was happy. That's a duck. Oh there it is. We need a little map for the buttonsself. Allen Robinson again finished top ten wide receiver UM. His success rate versus man coverage was the highest among all wide receivers to the NFL last year. That's from Matt Harmon and reception perception. Uh, it's just the quarterbacking is the concern. But Nick Foles will be an upgrade for a rob and uh again top he's getting drafted as the sixteenth wide receiver off the board. Finishes the

top ten wide receiver last year? Why not? Why can't you do it again? I just fear his career trajectory is gonna He's gonna be a Hall of Fame receiver, but he's gonna have quarterbacking like Andre Johnson had his entire career, Larry Fitzgerald outside of the two, like Kurt Warner of good years. So but Allen Robinson certainly has a high upside. Let's go to Detroit, Matt, where you know you and I have been a lockstep and almost

everything so far this show DeAndre Swift. Everybody. So many people are down on DeAndre Swift because how how the lines have used their backs in the past. I think DeAndre Swift is a special running back who will dominate the carries on this team. And let's find out. We gotta keep this quiet because it's because carry On Johnson is just not very good. I was optimistic for him last year than David Montgomery. UM better than David mcgomery.

Maybe they're six super viable players on Detroit's depth chart for the offense. Uh. Detroit was one of eight teams last year that allowed more than four hundred points on defense last year, which meant that their offense was pretty much always in catchup mode and outside of drafting Jeff Okuda and adding Desmond Truffont at corner, but they did lose Darius Slay, they pretty much stood pat with a really bad defense. So, uh, there's a lot of good

things that could happen with Detroit's offense. Number eleven offensive line according to Pro Football Focus to top ten offensive lineman at their positions with Frank rag Now and Taylor Decker. So there's a lot of reasons to be bullish on the offense this year. Uh, Kenny Golladay is going off the board in the second round. He's a great wide receiver. Um, here's my issue, and we're gonna touch on it as my player to avoid. Who's carry On Johnson? Who's going

off at player number seventy six RB nine. Wow, that's so high for him for carry On Johnson. He's he's going as the twenty nine running back. Though if you think about it, Uh, DeAndre Swift going one round later, pick eight three, that's absurd. That's gonna flip flop soon. Carry On Johnson has missed forty four percent of his career games due to injury. He only had ten receptions

in eight games last season. In eighteen career games, he's barely topped one thousand rushing yards, and his yards per attempt where a meager three point six last year. And you have to take him above DeAndre Swift, who was arguably the best running back in last year's draft class. That's all. It doesn't make it do, So why don't we take the talent? Because talent will win. Even even if you think Detroit's coaching staff is a bunch of duds.

Talent is gonna eventually went out. They might give carry On the job to start there. I don't think he keeps it for very long, and I think there's the look they could start carry On Johnson week one. Then in the third quarter they give DeAndre Swift a handoff that he houses for sixty yards and you know, blows by people like he did all through college and of that, let's see it all of a sudden your plans change. Yeah, So DeAndre Swift's definitely a guy that you can target

and you can get late. But my main target on this offense is Matthew Stafford, who last year was on pace for his best year since his two thousand eleven season. Uh. He was on pace for five thousand passing yards, thirty eight touchdowns, and only ten interceptions, and his completion percentages remained very steady for the last five years, at right around sixty give or take a percentage one way or

the other. He's got a he's got a good group of receivers with Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola's no slouches, a third wide receiver, t J. Hockenson's a good tight end coming into a second year, probably take a step assume he's a good tight end. Last year was a lost. I mean, let's extrapolate week one for t J. Hockenson, shall we? But I like the weapons on this team and even carry on Johnson filling in as a backup

running back. I I think it's a good offense that's going to be in catchup mode a lot this year. And I like the Lions didn't mention Marvin Jones. Who's who is? Did? Did you? Sorry? He's going off as wide receiver thirty nine right now, pick three. Overall, it seems like there's some value there there. Definitely he's going into a contract here as well. There you go, eight teams from the a f C North and the NFC North broken down fantasy style, what we expect? Who are

the guys are targeting? Who are we avoiding? I hope you found this helpful. Next week, let's do the South. You didn't want to mix it up, I am speaking to They tried in true east, north, south west. That never that you always see these divisions in I shouldn't be a slave. It's alphabetical. It is alphabeticals, and maybe that's it. Maybe maybe it's not just East. I mean, it's not East coast bias. Maybe that's it. It's just alphabetical.

We'll look forward to that. If you want to hear about the a f C and NFC East, go to last week's podcast. We broke on those eight teams similarly, and I think even better than this week. I mean, last week is just brilliant feedback I got. Yeah, that was an amazing show. Thanks a lot, no problem. I think this is a lukewarm effort. If I'm just being honest, Well, we'll do better. We'll do better next week, and we'll talk to you then, by bye, everybody. Fantasy Football Weekly

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