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From Guillotine Leagues dot com, here's your host, Paul Jargie.
Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. It's the biggest draft week of the year. So excited to talk to you in the busiest week in fantasy football. I'm Paul Charchi and Scott Fish Matt Harrison. Are you as jacked as I am?
That? That is incredible? You have so much energy coming over. You're incredibly jacked.
He's pepper jacked over.
Yeah. Now, I wish I was the sort of jack where you could just like flex and rip apart your T shirt.
I wish I was that kind of jam fantasy muscles.
Let's just try to use your hands and rip your T shirt apart. I want to see if you can do that.
You could do that? Hey, I do not by crappy T shirts.
Oh so obviously, high quality.
High quality T shirts only for me. Absolutely true. So much exciting stuff to get you ready for your final drafts. Right now, we're going to talk through our draft personas. If you go into your draft of the particular mindset, what your outcome might look like. We'll talk about which teammates would you rather have. We'll talk about the things, the things that we're worried about that we're getting wrong.
So we've been telling you all preseason about some of our big, big trends and the things, the things that we see coming. What if we're wrong, Well, we'll hit on some final news and notes. We're gonna talk auction strategies because we don't. We so rarely get to address auctions directly, and there's so much nuance and we love auctions. Here,
talk a little bit of guillotine strategy. We've got three tough questions, We've got sleepers, and then we're gonna do previews of the Thursday and Friday night games coming up.
Oh, we may have a special guest for the Friday night Brazil game.
By I had no idea.
I brought a guy to the studio. He's in the waiting room.
Oh, I can't wait. I can't wait too slightly worried.
Yes, that.
Will be very, very fun. I'm gonna start here draft day personas and the idea behind This is do you go into your draft with a particular mindset. We'll give you four different mindsets, and we'll tell you the outcome of basically the starters for those drafts. I am doing the boring mindset conservative. Let's call it conservative conservative mindset, because nobody likes the boring. Matt. You're doing a high risk mindset, yes, which.
Is completely opposite of what I normally do in drafts. So this made me real uncomfortable.
Scott, you're doing a rookie heavy yes, also known as high risk. Because and if we've got time, I'm going to give it to the opposite draft, where you know, we really deprioritize running backs. All right, let's dive in. Well, I guess, because I've two of them, I suppose I should go first. And how does that sound?
All right?
I'm gonna start with the conservative draft. I'm looking for proven players, veterans who have a long track record of success. I know it's super sexy to be the person who gets the next Pookinakua, but you're far more likely to end up with Quinton Johnston or Jonathan Mingo or Bryce Young or Zach Sharboney or Jalen Hyatt right, So this is the proven players. First round Jonathan Taylor, super safe. Second round Derrick Henry also extremely safe. Third round Travis Kelce.
These players have nothing to prove. Fourth round DK Metcalf, So it's starting to hit wide receivers now. Then I'm gonna I'm actually go with three straight Amari Cooper in the fifth round and Keenan Allen in the sixth round yep. Then seventh rowne. I'm getting my backup running back Najie Harris, and my final draft pick is a quarter I need one here and I can get proven quarterbacks late in this draft, right. Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford. I
settled on brock Party. But you insert whichever one.
Of those you super safe?
Right?
So that is the boring draft if you either of you walked out of that draft. Jonathan Taylor, Derreck Henry, Travis kelcey DK Metcalf, Mariy Cooper, Keenan Allen, Naji Harris, Brock Party. Are you feeling good about that team?
Very good? Yeah?
I'm feeling okay there, yeah, like like B plus yeah, yeah.
I feel safe, like I'm in a nice cozy blanket in front of a fireplayer swaddled up.
It does feel like a playoff team.
Yes, but does it feel like a championship?
I don't know about that.
We sing of upside in this.
We need that no risk at no biscuit that the high upside draft offer.
I love that. I love that you said that because we have a guy in our home league drafts this weekend. Charge that he always drafts teams like that, and he always makes the playoffs. He has not won the play one in like fifteen years. Yep.
That's It's like, it's a totally valuable strategy. Get me into the playoffs in the you know, just he'll catch a couple of breaks, you know. Yeah, Okay, let's go to our next draft. Matt, you've got the high risk, high reward draft. Tell me about your overarching philosophy on these picks.
Yeah, And I think really what you're doing here is shooting for the moon that you you want to get the guys who can maybe just break Fantasy altogether, and you're trying to do it in every round, which is which is a wild way to go. If you're gonna if you're gonna be high risk, you have to take running backs in round one, Round two, and round three.
I like that.
So I got Bijon Robinson in the first round, I've got Devon h Chan in the second, and I've got Josh Jacobs in the third. In the fourth, I took Stefan Diggs. Uh. Not really sure where he is in this offense, but I mean there's a lot of there's a lot of risk and a lot of reward in one of the high high ranking offense.
He qualifies.
Round five the poster boy for high risk, high reward quarterbacks. That's Anthony Richardson right there.
Yeah, I like that you targeted him here.
Round six and seven went wide receivers back to back with Rashie Rice, who could be suspended, and Deontay Johnson, whose offense could be terrible, but he could get one hundred and sixty targets this year. And then finally David and Joku, which I thought this was hilarious. In games that Watson started last year, and Joku had five targets
per game, four catches per game thirty eight yards. In games that Watson did not start, he had nine targets, six catches, sixty eight yards and scored five times in eleven games and by the way, Deshaun Watson starting, Yeah, that's not good. So David and Joku. So my team is Bijon, ah Chan and Jacob's are my running backs. I got Diggs, Rice and Deontay Johnson as my wide receivers. Anthony Richardson's my quarterback, and David and Joku in the eighth round is my tight end.
I think most people would prefer your draft. I think, just the way fantasy players are wired, they want the upside in the risk.
Now, if you get six of these a to hit good, you're in a very good spot. But if it goes a coin flip, yeah, you're in a tough spot.
Agreed, I'll be I'll be honest. I do think the rookie won this year is even more high risk and less good than both of yours.
I tried to stay away from the rookies, to leave leave.
Those first, Scott. I appreciate that. So, Scott, let's let's hear about your rookie heavy drafting. YEA, not every pick has to be a rookie.
Yeah, yeah, it doesn't. But if you're gonna look over the first eight rounds, you need to grab a couple of running backs you're unlikely to take rookies because Jonathan Brooks out for four weeks and Jalen Wright is, you know, a twelfth rounder. So basically you're starting off with some running You're getting running backs in these eight rounds that aren't rookies. So I started off with Breese Hall.
Uh.
He's only a thirty year player. This is more like a youth movement.
Okay, okay, yeah, career four point eight yard per carry, five eight point five per reception, just explosive. We don't even talk much about him. In the second round, I'm going to Marvin Harrison.
Oh, obviously my cousin. Yep.
That makes a ton of s.
Second round, going to Marvin Harrison, who should be in line for a ton of talker targets in an offense that very well could be a top ten offense playing from behind all the time. Uh, and one of the top two target geters there. And we've seen a lot of wide receivers come out, Chase Lamb, Jefferson. I'm on, et cetera. Studs come out and perform their first year, even if the first month is slow. In the third round, I go with Sam Laporta.
Uh, still young.
Second year tight ends. He scores red zone targets, end zone targets, one of the league league's highest scoring and best offenses. They even get extra downs for him on fourth down.
You can't stop drafting Sam Laporta.
I cannot stop drafting Sam.
Even when you're instructed draft only rookies and there's a really good rookie, you still can't stop.
Yea.
I could have done Brock Bauers in the eighth. He's dealing with this foot issue and tight ends already are sometimes slow out of the gate, and he's he's likely for Week one right now, but he's already dealing with an injury.
Super dangerous for gallanting you sprock powers, right.
Yeah, So the fourth round, I'm going to Melik Neighbors. The biggest drawback, honestly, isn't him. He looks awesome, lot a lot of people had him closer to or even above Marvin Harrison coming out. His biggest problem is Daniel Jones.
Yeah, that's the that's the governor on him. But he's got a very questionable Viking secondary in week one. Yeah, Neighbors could hit the ground running.
Yeah, absolutely could. I mean, Daniel Jones is a quarterback who couldn't even throw a touchdown past per game two years ago.
And last year before he got hurt, and the sample size was longer than I thought. It was five full games for Daniel Jones. Yeah, he averaged zero point four touchdowns per game.
Yeah, that's real good. Let's let's give at least a tiny benefit of the doubt that he's been playing with a bunch of like middling slot receivers and he's never had a Molik Neighbors and Elik Neighbors should be a lock for one hundred targets in that office.
Speaking of lock, he'll start this year for the Giant Lock.
Yeah, that might be interesting. Interesting, my deep dark throat segueing. Sorry, no, I'm not giving up on Sam howel.
Oh yeah, I know you, you know, I just see this scenario. If Gino doesn't perform that grub offense, that could be really good for interesting Scott some weapons. I know. I'm going to Anthony Richardson in the next round because my quarterbacks are late Caleb Williams, Jade and Daniels like. I can't get him in the first eight rounds, so I'm going with the basically a rookie who only had two full games last year, but he was QB two
and QB four in those two full games. Wow. So uh didn't produce much as the thrower, but if that even takes any kind of a step, his ceiling is very, very high.
It is very high.
Next round, I'm going Rashi Rice with the Hollywood Brown injury, no suspension in sight, the way he ended the last month as a true legit wide receiver. One his A dot was tiny, but he gets a ton of red zone targets and then he gets them after the catch. Yeah, Rashi Rice there. In the seventh, I'm going to mere White. I know he's third year in, but honestly, I just need a running back at this point. There's no rookies. This is about where I have to go with it.
You know.
You know, Matt and I are very high on smear White. I have him in so many Keene leagues because the volume. To me, it's the volume Smir White super safe.
Yeah. If Antonio Pierce had his brothers, he would not throw a pass all season. He would just run it all. We saw belcow In Zamir White last year twenty twenty two, twenty five, and twenty six touch games, averaging one hundred and fifteen total yards a game. I think that's in there. He's he never was a pass catcher before that, but in those final four games he had thirteen targets, catching the ball nine times. I should have waiting feed you up for that.
You know I'll get there.
Yeah, Lolby could come in for some of that work. But Zamir White is going to be a bellcow. And then in round eight, I'm going with Roma Dunze, a four favorite. He's an eighth round shot. That kind of Keenan Allen's rage of outcomes might ladden on the bad side and we haven't. He might be a top two option that offense. I'm willing to take the shot on him there over some of the other options like Bowers,
who's injured and whatnot. So my my rookie, heavy, very risky offense is Anthony Richardson at quarterback, Bryce Hall ends A Mere Wide at running back, Harrison Neighbors Rashi Rice and Rome Adunza at wide receiver, and Sam Laporta at tight end.
I gotta be honest, I like that.
I do too.
They so much want that team to come together.
Now.
Now replace Richardson with a fifth round player and take Caleb Williams their Jayden and Daniels the next round.
Right, and that I'm even happier.
You're even happier.
It's absolutely true, Absolutely a lot of risk. There's a non zero chance Caleb Williams is the consensus number one quarterback next year. Yeah, that's that could happen. All right, do the opposite draft. I'm going to punt the most dangerous, volatile, and disappointing position running backs until the middle rounds that I'm gonn to take high value, proven wide receivers, quarterbacks, and tight ends with my most valuable selections in the draft,
beginning with round one. Justin Jefferson, yep, I think enough said. We know that he's great. Sam Donald to be something of a limiting factor probably, but this whole offense goes through Justin Jefferson. Second round Devanta Adams. Now, I know we just said the Raiders, if they had their way, they would just run the ball constantly. But Devanta Adams super safe and dependable, tons of targets. Nobody else gets
a lot of targets in that offense. Brock Bowers is gonna be a little bit of time to get up to speed. Third round, Sam Laporta for reasons that have already been mentioned here, and we just we love Sam Laporta on the show, so we keep finding our way to him. Fourth round, another player who's already been taken once elite neighbors. Fifth thrown. I also have Anthony Richardson.
By the way, yeah, you've taken wide receivers with the quarterbacks, Sam, Darnold, Gardner, Minshew and Daniel Jones. How do you feel about that? Their charch not right?
Thank you? The fifth thrown. I also have Anthony Richardson proving that we did not coordinate these before players. And then sixth round, I'm finally turning my attention to running backs. Six, seven, and eight are my running backs. I'm taking Remandre Stevenson. Look, I know that Patriots offense is not going to be good, but I feel like he's been held back by Bill Belichick all this time. He wasn't being given goal line
looks for no reason. He can catch better than they ever threw to him, and the offense can't get worse than it was last year.
I almost did him. I thought about it then.
Samre White for reasons you just discussed as well, and then round eight, I'm throwing a dart at Zach Boss on the chance that he ends up being the lead back. That would be outstanding, and I think there's a real chance that could end up working out that way. So I'm gonna go Zach Moss. So again, here's the I'll recap my do the opposite team. My quarterback is Anthony Richardson. My three run are Ramandra Stevenson, Zamir White, Zack Moss.
My my wide receivers are Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Malik Neighbors. So we get a little bit of zingy upsided Neighbors, and then my tight end Sam Laporta. I'd go to war with that team. Sure yeah, sure? Did I get all these volume backs at the back end of this draft and a little if Zack Moss pans out in week eight or round eight, that's a great opportunity for me right there.
All right.
When we come back next segment Fantasy Football Weekly, which teammate would you rather have at their average draft position? In years past, we have tended as a group to go towards later picks. Yep, we'll see if that's going to hold. Here is it's a ritual. We do this the last preseason show every year. We'll ask which teammates would you rather have, including Tyreek Hill in the first round or Jalen Waddle in the third round. We'll talk it through when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly.
Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. If you haven't tried a guillotine league, it's the perfect time. Private league's totally free this year. A reskinned app. It's beautiful. It's never run better. It's a beautiful it's a bits a beautiful Guillotine League's app. You know how it works. Eighteen up to eighteen teams start the season. You don't have to have eighteen. You can end the season sooner if you want. Every week the low screwing team gets chopped, all the players go
to the waiver wire. The rest of us build superstar rosters. I have to do is not finish last. It is super fun.
I'm in the midst of a guillotine draft right now. Oh it's a slow draft. Yeah, And I ended up with both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, and I don't know how I feel about it.
Oh boy, I've got one where I messed up yeah, I got auto drafted for one of my picks. So for not to get too deep into this, people don't care about anybody else's fantasy team.
I do.
Jamier Gibbs, who's typically going up the board at like run at position like twelve. Overall, right, he's gonna like end of the first round of normal drafts Guillotine League draft, Jamiir Gibbs goes all the way up to eighteen turns, the corner comes all the way back to me in the end of the second round at I've got picked three. Yeah, you know whatever, So I guess that would be picked
like fifteen in the second round. So I'm like, okay, fine, you know, at this point, as dedicated as I am to not taking running backs, if somebody's gonna fall that far, hey fine, I'm gonna take him, even though he's got the Week five by three rounds later, I got auto drafted. My fault I get autographed is your.
Own fault, David Montgomery.
David Montgomery. So now I've got both sides of the Lions backfield, which is a bad idea in Guillantine and Week five, bye, I gotta get by.
Well. It's safety though, because one of them's going to score every week.
That is one will.
I mean when you're eat both, I mean when you're in an eighteen team league, you're probably okay starting them for the first three or four weeks.
That's how it's gonna have to come. I'm just gonna have to spend some money early.
Yeah, that's all.
Which teammates would you rather have at their ADP? We begin with Miami wide receivers Tyreek Hill in round one or Jalen Waddle in round three? Let's begin with Scott Fish.
Yeah, So, I honestly don't have a strong take on this one. It's probably Hill. Double digit targets in eleven games, twenty nine receptions of twenty more yards, which led the league. He's a big play machine, averaged well over one hundred yards per game last year. He just seems like he's more not seems he is more consistent, and he usually gets the bigger, more explosive uh Spike weeks. I think it's probably Hill.
Okay, so Hill, we'll go Hill, Okay, Matt, Which teammate would you rather have? Tyrek Hill in round one? Jalen Waddle round three?
It's definitely Tyreek Hill. He's the only one in the league who does Tyreek Hill things, and he's got my vote here. Waddle in the in round three is a significant price and he only had one hundred and two targets last year. That's not enough for me to spend money on a round three wide receiver.
You nailed it right there, my man. I can't you know Tyrek Hill's two years in Miami one hundred and seventy targets, one hundred and seventy one ton rails. Yeah, And not only does that obviously help Hill a lot, it really daggers Wattle and it puts him on these games where he's targeted four times five times and catches three passes, and those dud games really hurt. Next Atlanta running backs Bijon Robinson or Tyler Algier Robinson in the first round, Matt or Tyler Algier in the twelfth round.
What do you think?
Well, I'm gonna keep talking about Bijon throughout the day, but I haven't s bent anything on him at all this year, So for me, it's part of me.
Would you have any great.
Remember that they really need to stretch into Dijon after that this work? I know, so I have Algier at the round twelve EIGHTYP But honestly, I think this backfield is cloudy enough that I'd really like to avoid both this year.
All right, Scott Fish, would you rather have be Jean Robinson and round one or Tyler Algier in round twelve?
Yeah, I just don't think. I think Algier. You're gonna have to have trouble figuring out where to pick your spots with him, or there needs to be a bijon injury. I just don't think he's going to be super fantasy relevant mode.
You're in a league with him, I'm not.
Anymore, not anymore. And he was seven and seven in the league. So he's definition of the middle.
And that's why you're not taking him in the twelve round.
Yes, so I guess I'm going with Jon Robinson because over the final month of the season last year was top five and running back targets, first down targets, first three targets, first down receptions, and more nine point three yards perception, had thirty runs over ten yards. He's got game breaking talent. It's if he gets even half the goal line carries in an offense that should be pretty productive this year, and also a defense that should lead them to have leads. It should just be you know,
being able to run out leads. I think Bijon's probably got the more fantasy. I mean, he does, but I'll take Bjon in the first.
To support a first round ranking for Bjon Robinson, we need a massive uptick in Bijon Robinson.
Utilization and you're gonna get that.
And maybe it's coming. We don't know that for sure. But what I can tell you for sure is that new offensive coordinator, Zach Robinson keeps saying repeatedly Tyler Aljier is a big part of this offense. And I am worried that for.
All telling the truth that he's out, that we actually.
Have a coach truth that it's actually gonna happen. And in the first round, I want first round player, and you touch on this one, go Matt for my first round equity. I want a player who the offense goes through that guy, and I don't want to have to speculate that that's going to happen.
Like it. My view on that is, even if al Giotic gets thirty percent and Vijon gets seventy percent, that's still probably going to put up first round numbers with how effective he is. But I agree, I can see either side.
Let's go to Houston. This is the toughest one. We've alluded to this many times in the preseason shows. Scott Houston wide receiver Nico Collins and round three, Stefan Diggs in round four, Tank Dell and round five. Y. This is thorny.
It can be. I know that Tennabee the other day was saying he likes Stefan Diggs. Feels like he's going to be that vet begging for the ball and poud if he doesn't get it. Honestly, these are so close in ADP that I'm taking the one that I think is the best one. The ADPs aren't ridiculously different third round, fourth round, fifth round, so you're not getting a major
discount like the last the last question. Among wide receivers, Nico was third and broken tackles, eighth in yards, fourth in yards after the catch, fourth and explicit play rate with twenty five receptions over twenty yards. That's that's incredible. Second in yards per target, top ten and several other categories, not just last year but since entering the league. I think he's the best receiver of them. At this moment, so I want him.
Matt, which of the Houston wide receivers are you taking? Nico Collins around three? Stuff on Digs, Round four, Tank Dell round five.
If you listen to CJ. Stroud, Tank Dell is one of the top three wide receivers of all time already. And if I can get him latest out of these three, and really there's a non zero chance here that Tank Dell isn't the best wide receiver out of these three this year, I'll take Tank Dell in round five, and I think the two round discount. I'll take the two round discount. Digs isn't even in the conversation here, by the way.
Yeah, I'm with you.
I know ten to be love them. I'm with you as well. I prefer I prefer not to take Digs out of these three. It's complicated because all three guys, and we've mentioned this some previous shows as well, all three guys play the X, the Y, and the Z. So they're going to be shuffled all around the field and they're going to be utilized in very totally different ways game to game. It's going to be a nightmare for us doing Houston matchups. Watch me just slough those
matchups to you guys. Every reason to deal with it. But I'm emotionally tied to Nico Scott and I started talking about him as a rookie and as a sophomore when the numbers weren't there. But we love this kid, and I'm not getting off the hype train now. And I'll mention this. Dwayne McFarland's preseason utilization showed Nico Collins on the field for ninety three percent of CJ. Stroud's snaps. So he looks like the safest this preseason. He looks like it's a small sample size.
Okay.
We acknowledge that the safest of the receivers to bank on in two receiver sets, which will happen sometimes. So I'm going Nico Collins. Let's move to Tampa Bay. Which of the two Tampa Bay receivers would you rather have Mike Evans in round three or Chris Godwin in round seven? Matt it is your turn.
Something about me just doesn't fully trust Chris Godwin to bounce back here, and I'd rather just take the sure thing in Mike Evans. He just keeps doing it year after year after year. I'll just take Mike Evans in round three and get on with it, Okay, Scott.
Yeah, So Evan's coming off of the year where he led the league in touchdowns top ten in a bunch of different categories. Godwin moving back to the slot where he averaged more catches, more targets, more yards per game, even scored more. Somehow, I think the safe call is probably Evans because he's going to put up his thousand, He's probably going to get double digit touchdowns. But my
answer is Jalen McMillan. In the last round of your draft, wow off the board, beat out Trey Palmer for the other outside role, Liam Cohen coming from the McVeigh tree, likely to run eleven personnel all day long. He's always going to be out there and he's always going to see single coverage. I think. I think he's the cheapest. You're going to be able to flex him every once in a while. Option in Jalen McMillan, I get other guys at three and seven.
I love that you went off the board for this one. I've taken Mike Evans. Now, if Evans, if Tampa hadn't just given him a brand new fifty four million dollars two year extension. I would be worried that this is like the end is coming, but they did, and they know him better than anybody coming off a great season. Seventeen games played, more receptions in yards than any season for Mike Evans since twenty eighteen, thirteen touchdowns last year
his second highest total ever. I mean, Mike Evans, dude still got it based on what we saw last year.
He's Baker's Wooby Baker's.
Would be let's go back to running backs. We're headed to Miami. Another thorny one for our panel of experts. That's, by the way, that's you guys. Devon H. Chan round two, Raheem Mostered round seven or Jalen Wright in round twelve. Scott, who you taken.
So much of me? Wants it to be a Chan because I believe he's got this Christian McCaffrey potential upside. If Moster it's done and they give Moster is you know, finally tailing off and he becomes you know, the sixty seven sixty five percent back in this backfield. But I'm gonna go with Jalen Right round twelve. The likelihood of a Chan or most Art getting hurt the just what he showed in preseason, and Mike McDaniel loves to run two backs. I think if any of that happens, he's
going to find himself a role. I mean, just unbelievable speed, high i Q guy. We'll talk about him later though.
Right I like it. Matt Devon ah Chan and round two were he most are Round seven or Jalen right in round twelve.
In round seven, we can get the player who had the most rushing touchdowns in the league last year. I mean, well, even if we cut it in half, he's still scoring nine touchdowns on the ground this year. It's most hurt for me because the most likely outcome here is if everybody's healthy, this is still a split backfield in some way, and Mostard scores a lot of touchdowns. So I'm just gonna take most in round seven. It's easy.
Same It's it's the inside the five. Stats bear this out. Miami ran the ball the seventh most times, they scored the fifth most rushing touchdowns, and Raheem Moster had the third most attempts across the NFL from inside the five. They ran him twenty times from inside the five. To me, this is a this is an easy answer. And by the way, this gives it's pause for reconsideration on Devan e Channer two for me. All right, let's work in one or two more Chicago's wide receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen,
or Roma Dunza. Let's go to Matt for this one.
You know you roam if you want to all around the world. Yes, he costs me the least, then I'm you know, really, I'm still not fully on board with the Bears offensive line situation. I think that's shaky at most, and so I'm probably not drafting many Bears this season. So if I really have to draft a Bear, I'm gonna take the cheapest one here.
Okay, Scott, which of the Chicago wide receivers that you take in Dj Moore round four, Keenan Allen round six, or Roma Dunes at round eight.
It's probably just cheapest. It's probably just the DUNESA. I think he's got the potential to be the wide receiver two, if not the wide receiver one, but probably the wide receiver two. And I think that Keenan Allen's likelihood to you know, fall down is more likely than his likelihood to be that would be for Kayleb Williams.
All right, let's get into our final. I'm Roban Dunes as well. So we all took the cheapest option for the Bears and by a fair margin, a little bit rot the way down to round eight, and man, he's got some tantalizing upside as well. I want to work in the rare tight end question. Yes, people thought it would only be receivers and running backs. Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews in round four or Isaiah Likely way down in round sixteen. Let's begin with this is a Scott one?
Well, sure, sure, it's Isaiah Likely. It's I mean, it's such a huge, huge discount there. And the way Todd Monkin has been talking this offseason about Likely being, you know, having a huge role in the offense. Finally, outside of a Mark Andrews' injury, he may end up being the third passing option behind Andrews and Flowers and obviously wheels up if anything happens to Andrews. But if he becomes that third, then again, Munkin's also been talking about talking about.
Retard Stott Bateman, but he's got to stay healthy.
Yeah, he's got to stay healthy. But I'll tay. I'll take the cheap end of roster guy.
Okay, Matt, you're going Mark Andrews round four or Isaiah Likely in round sixteen.
I will also go Likely, but I'll just add Mark Andrews in round four. I just never find myself wanting to draft Mark Andrews in round four. There's too many guys around there that I like just a lot better. If I want a premium tight end, I'm drafting a premium tight end before that, and if not, I'll just take Likely really late.
Andrews is one season removed from being the highest scoring tight end in Fantasy football. Is you know, Likely's emerging prowess, and I do think it's coming. I don't think takes Andrews off the field. I think that's complimentary. Mostly they'll play together. In Andrews nine full games last year, he's still average fifty nine yards and point seven touchdowns per game. Those are great tight end numbers across a full season. He'd nearly had a one thousand receiving season. Again, very
good numbers for a tight end. I think I'm taking the sure thing and Mark Andrews. You guys know, I love my tight ends. We're gonna do that here as well. When we come back. I might be wrong about some of our biggest takes. Find out what they are and what our real hesitancy is when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchi and Scott Fish and Matt Harry with you. Thank you for listening. This is a segment we've done the past
couple of years. I think this is a Matt Harrison invention, if I recall correct, Maybe called I might be wrong about that because we spout off all these big opinions all preseason, but in the back of our minds, we're like, maybe.
I'm not right. It was actually I stole it.
You stole it, Okay, you stole it.
I do this segment on Christopher Harris's podcast, Shout Out, and I brought it here, Christopher Harrison, I did shout it out when I brought it over. Okay, all right, So like he appreciate that, give give credit where credit is due.
All right, Well let's start with you, Scott, who is the first of what will ultimately be three players. We'll all do three players. You might be wrong about.
I'm gonna start with Nico Colem. I already mentioned why I love him, but why I take him over the three. But obviously there's question marks. What if Diggs does, like like Tenneby said last week on the on on the show that uh he demands the balls of Vett pouts when he doesn't get it. What if teams take away Nico and Dell deeper and Diggs runs around free constantly in the middle of the field, and that's where c J. Stroud just finds the open guy, because that's what c
J Straudle do. He will find the open guy. What if the offense uh is is great but just doesn't support all three, or they support him inconsistently, where Diggs is the stud one week, the Dell is the Nico.
That's the real fear for.
So I could be wrong. It could be it could be any of those following options, or.
Let me let me brush this idea. Yeah, draft, whichever the Houston receivers you like. If your guy blows up in week one, trade them mm hmmm, because that might be a one game sample size that makes it look like he's he's like Hi, and you sell high in that moment before week two comes and it's a different guy. And now in your guy's got three catches, Matt, what is the first of your three? I might be wrong about that.
All my guys are kind of guys I've poo pooed on, but I'm I'm fearful that I'm not going to have them on my roster this and I mentioned it in my high risk draft, but I think I'm just pretty risk averse when it comes to running backs, especially in the first two rounds. It's like charges constant blah blah blah. Do the opposite has rubbed off on me? So I got Devin a chan here. I have a chan nowhere, and I know there's going to be weeks where I'm
pissed off about that. He had one hundred and thirty touches last year and managed to finish as RB four and points per game. Let's say he gets one hundred and sixty rushing attempts and fifty receptions, which is only two hundred and ten touches, and that just basically means that he's just healthy all year and there's no increase in touch tootal. We're looking at a probable one thousand
rushing yards with a lower yard per carry average. I even baked in there, and another four hundred receiving yards and if we keep the touchdowns right around at the same eleven. If that holds, he finishes as a top six running back. And that's with no increase in this in is usage. That's forty three percent of the snaps in every game. But mostard is looming and Hill steals touches and he did get hurt last year a little bit,
so that's been enough to scare me off. But I'm scared I'm not going to have any h N this year.
Yeah, I'm I have zero h CHAN.
I'm scared I have too much h especially after Matt said all that.
I might be wrong about Xavier Worthy. You know, we've gotten to the point where every year there's like can do an exciting receiver for the Chiefs and we all, you know, we all go to that guy and then he doesn't pan out, or in the case of Rashi Rice, it takes you about three months before you pan out. Xavier Worthy brings the insane speed to the position. Now we've seen Patrick Mahomes average distance of throw shrink, shrink, shrink, shrink last year is practically a dink and dunk passer.
I know Andy Reid wants to bring back the vertical game, and that's why they drafted him.
That coincided with the loss of speedy Tyree Hill exactly.
I was gonna say, he's a perfect compliment to Rice and Kelsey. Kelsey in the middle, Rice is short, he.
Is the perfect compliment.
No.
So the reason I've been pooh pooing down on Xavier Worthy, I haven't drafted him anywhere is because he fits the archetype of the most probable bust of all wide receivers track star speed receivers. Yeah, don't have the polish for all the things required and a position that is technically very difficult, and we rarely see guys that are four two speed guys end up making it in the NFL, and I'm worried that that's going to be the case
here too for Xavier Worthy. But I could be wrong, and he could be the downfield threat that Patrick Mahomes has not had since Tyreek Hill and he ends up having tons of explosive plays. All of it very possible, Scott, Let's go to your second. I might be wrong about that.
Yeah, it's got to be a guy I've taken basically in every draft, and that's Anthony Richardson. I've talked about my love of him too many times. His pointspen per snap, how he did those we mentioned already. The two weeks he had full games, he was just absurd. But what if the passing just doesn't improve. There's been talk that he's just out there throwing to spots, he's not actually throwing like targeting. What if Jonathan Taylor takes those goal
line scores away. What if they you know, they didn't play together last year that what if he takes that away? He got injured twice in four games? What if the play style does that again? Like, there's a lot of there's a lot of things that could make that fifth round pick really really hurt me.
All Right, Matt, your second, I might be wrong about that player.
I've got Brandon Ayuk, who just signed that big deal with San Francisco a couple of days ago, so you know he's staying put in that offense. But what scares me about Ayuk is his usage. He had one more target than Elijah Moore of the Cleveland Browns. Lest he really one more, wow, one hundred, and he did a lot more with his with his target he sure did. His one hundred and five targets were thirtieth amongst wide receivers, way behind a bunch of guys who are getting drafted
way way later. So I haven't drafted him because of that. But his efficiency is fantastic, it really is. He's got great hands, he gets open, he does a lot after the catch. He's scored fifteen times in the last two years. He's barely ever injured. But I've been avoiding Ayyuk because of those targets, and the wide receivers all going in the same range as Ayuk, which is Cup, Evans, Wattle, Pittman, DJ Moore, Metcalf. All of them provide similar targets, if
not way more targets, and similar touchdown upside. I could be wrong, but I've been taking all those guys above eye Yuke right now, and I've been avoiding him, and I'm gonna feel sad if he goes off this year.
I don't have any data to back this up, but I've seen people tweeting about this, and I think it's accurate. A lot of times, the guys that do the really protracted holdouts come into camp and the conditioning is a problem. The risk of injury is a problem. They go like zero to one hundred on the physical demands.
And then get the hamstring that right.
Now, now you get injuries stuff like that, and I you know, again, maybe that's not accurate, but I think there's some truth to that. Second I might be wrong about that is DeAndre Swift, who we have not talked about at all. We haven't said anything good or bad about him, and I feel like we might be missing the boat on this. Yeah, you know, we know that Bears pre season usage, that Khalil Herbert is somebody they ran all the way back to the Hall of Fame game.
Roshan Johnson's just a mix it in, guy. DeAndre Swift might be sitting on a ton of usage. Shane Waldron in Seattle for three years. I mean, Kenneth Walker was the man. He got all the work that could be DeAndre Swift. And we all you last year as a disappointing season for Swift, but his quarterback was scooping up fifteen touchdowns. What if half of those Jalen Hurts touchdowns go to DeAndre Swift, that would be seven extra touchdowns on top of the six he had last year, be
sitting on a thirteen touchdown season. We talked about a top five, six seven running back. Absolutely, maybe we're really wrong on DeAndre Swift and he's sitting on a big year.
I like it.
Let's see if I don't know how much time we got left, I don't think very much. Let's see we can zip through these finals. Thoo, that might be wrong about That's.
Okay. Brian Thomas, my sleeper from last week. I feel like he's walking into that Calvin Ridley role. He's only going to have competition from a backup slot guy in Parker Washington and a returner and Devin du Vernie. He's got no competition there. He should be a red zone target monster. But what if I'm wrong in taking him in the eleventh round. Every single draft I'm in, I feel like, what if they do more two receiver sets. What if Gabe Davis stays on the field more and
actually pans out. What if that Jacksonville passing game can't support three wide receivers in that And what if Evan Ingram's production matches what it was last year only he finally starts catching those touchdowns that I want And think should go to Brian Thomas.
Love it all right, Matt, what's the thing you might be wrong about?
I got Bjon Robinson here. We've gone over at a billion times this offseason and today. I mean the adp of Bjon Robinson indicates that fantasy players do not believe in the existence of Tyler Algier. And he's a real guy and he's not bad at football. But Kirk Cousins should have that offense passing more than Desmond Ritter and Arthur Smith ever could manage. So I haven't been getting
Bijon anywhere. But what if Kirk opens up that whole offense and Bijon is that other worldly guy and the most notable I mean, he was the most notable rookie runner since Saquon Barkley came out gaining five yards per touch. They can't keep him off the field. His upside is the top running back in fantasy, and I've got him nowhere.
The player I might be wrong about is well the next Javonte Williams, who I've just like ruled out in my mind because I was so disappointed in how he ran last year. But what if second year off acl.
You love Audric estimate and you love.
Jalil Jillian McLoughlin especially, and Estimate could be their goal line back. You know, but what if Jivantia Williams comes back and performs really well. He is the starter, and maybe he's just gonna be Maybe he's gonna be every bit as good as he was pre acl when he was great.
I don't know.
Maybe I'm wrong about that. It's possible. I don't think so, but I could be wrong. I want to mention. I want to give share a text message I got from a friend on Wednesday. Charge I was helping my dad clean up trees from the storm Monday and a thousand pound tree fell on me and I thought it crushed every bone in my body. My parents miraculously lifted it off, and I was rushed to the hospital in an ambulance,
not knowing what had happened. After they gave me fenton All, I realized I was on the clock in our Guillotine League, so I made my pick in the ambulance. Turned out I had five fractured ribs, a broken collar bone, and a punctured lung. But I made my Guillotine League draft pick. That's dedication to your league right there, all about that. Wow, Zack in Minneapolis that.
Was last actually was liel movie to the hospital that now he drip everybody.
When I tell the storybody asked me, well, who'd he take down to Foreman, who the next day got cut by the Browns. But fortunately they re signed him, so there's hopefully it will all end up panning out. And that was a bad ass move by Zach in St. Paul.
There's so many impressive things, like his parents lifting a thousand Yes. Wow.
He shared a picture with me of the paramedic hovering over him working on him that his parents apparently had taken while he was down on the ground, and unbelievable story. That's fantasy football in a nutshell right there right making your pick on fentanyl in the ambulance so you don't hold up the draft.
Did he say who the pick was?
No, doctor Foreman?
Oh I missed that.
Yes, yes, doctor Foreman was the pick. When we come back our number two Fantasy Football Weekly, we're gonna start breaking down games, the Thursday night game, the Friday night game. We're gonna talk about auction strategies plenty to get to in our number two Fantasy Football Weekly, our number two Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Charchi and Scott Fish and Matt Harrison with you. Please go try a Guillotine league. They are free to join public leagues with We have free
public leagues right now. You can play in a private league with friends. You can play with any number of players up to eighteen because there's eighteen weeks in the season. It is a ton of fun. It is free to play, and we have a brand new, super cool app that is a honestly massive improvement over what we've had in the past. I think you're gonna like it a lot. Let's turn our attention, Scott Fish to the f n N,
the Fish News Network, not the fake News Network. This is all the facts the f This is the f f NN, the factual fish.
Big fire news wrap up from the last week of cuts and whatnot. Let's start with the quarterbacks. We got Russell Wilson's going to be the starter for the Steelers, Jacoby Brissett is going to be the starter for the Pats, and if you care, Malik Willis was traded to the Packers.
We don't we Hey, can you do the rest of this segment? Like Ron Burgundy?
Can we get that in the background. Can we get up? No, let's not do it.
No, I don't want that over.
That doesn't work.
That doesn't work. Wait, how about the let's let's move to the let's move to the wide receivers where the other there was the Russell Wilson. If they care about Drake May don't see the field this year. Yeah, you know they're punting on this whole season for the Patriots. Don't kill this kid behind a terrible offensive line with no good wat kill Stevens. That's right on editorial. You like that.
Kill Stevenson behind that line.
I'll quiet you.
Okay. Over to the receivers. Ceedee Lamb signed, Brandon Ayuk signed, and Zach Tayler expects Jamar Chase to play Week one but week one, but he has not signed yet. The Lions signed a whole bunch of wide receivers their practice squad, down Vin Peoples, Jones, Allen Robinson, and Tim Patrick who were all formerly fantasy relevance. But we'll see if any of them happened. Mike Williams for the Jets to be available for Week one.
Yeah impressive.
Yeah, yeah, I didn't. I didn't know for sure that wouldn't think he would. Yeah, good for him. Over to the tight ends. Brock Bauer is likely to play Week one with that foot injury. Jolannie Woods season ending, I are I just had to bring it up. I had to bring it up. Well, you know one of the I'm done, You're done right now?
Wow?
Done, I'm done advocating for jolannie Woods all off season by oh super Deep's Leeber last pick year draft. He's missed two straight years.
You did that with Zach Moss, didn't you? And I did it?
Gave up on Zach crossing it. Yes, exactly.
That's that's the patterns what that's what needs. Yeah, that's what he needs to step it up to. Some good news for me and you charge. Donald Parms signed with the Broncos.
Were the last believers on Donald Park.
Yeah, and Tyler Higbee to start the year on PUP. I don't think that matters either. But the running backs is where all the news is. Tank Bigsby is the clear backup in Jacksonville.
It's gonna be another one that I was a year two early on.
Yeah, look at that.
We don't We lost our Tank Sounder. Yeah, okay, between Tank Dell and tank and Tank Bigsby, who might end up being relevant this year. Yeah, we need our tank sounder back.
Yes, Bucky Irving has won the clear up clear cut backup spot in Tampa Bay with Chase Edmonds going on IR. Trey Benson has won the backup role behind James Connor in Arizona. That could be pretty relevant.
This one could be real. I've handcuffed those I'm not a big handcuff guy. I've handcuffed those two in a couple of leagues.
Yeah.
I like Trey Benson a lot.
Not a bad idea for the forty nine ers. Elijah Mitchell put on IR, making Jordan Mason, who has looked great this preseason the clear backup.
Yep? Is he the Is he the most important handcuff in football?
He might be, he might to Mason. Yeah, I can see it. I can see it. Wilson back up over Marshawn Lloyd, who struggled in preseason even when he wasn't hurt. Because AJ Dillon is on season ending IR, Jalen Warren is expected to be good for Week one, but we'll see what that does. Over for the Colts, Evan Hull got cut thor is gonna be so sad he is going to be Thorsa thought he might lead the team in touchdowns, joking receptions, receptions. Trey Sermon the backup to
Jonathan Taylor. There the Browns, Deontay Foreman was cut then re signed, making him anderome Ford. These starters for the first four weeks, with Nick Chubb landing on pup to start the season.
I'm gonna keep saying it. I really think this is going to be a split backfield with these two guys, because that's what Kevin Stefanski likes to do and always did with Chubb and Hunt. And I think that's coming with a you know, it's a Dollar Tree version of Chubb and Hunt, right Ford and Foreman. But I think I think that's coming.
Yeah. J p Ron cut, but then are signed over by the Chiefs. John Than Brooks is gonna start the year on pup, missing the first four weeks. So it's Cuba Cuba, Hubbard's the starter and Sanders the backup. If you ask me. Dalvin Cook signed with the Cowboys. Not sure that that matters. The Vikings enter the season with just two running backs on their roster currently, I know, how odd, which is interesting well, they got a couple
of guy, a couple of runners on practice squad. They cut wong Wu, and wang Wu signed with the Saints, then failed to physical with the Saints. And the last one is mcveay. Sean McVay said Karen Williams will retire return punts to start the season, but we will talk about that later.
All right, sounds good. You know, we all love auctions. We all feel like it's the fairest way to distribute players. Everybody's got a crack at every player. I love working on how much I'm going to spend. I love I love driving up the price. The draft day experience gets so much more thrilling when you can have a part in virtually every player's outcome. Yeah, I mean it's just you know, I you just can't replicate all the awesomeness and the adrenaline and the excitement of an auction with
a draft, right, it's just not the same. Nope, we don't talk it enough.
Here.
Let's spend a few minutes on some of your favorite auction strategies. I've got five bullet points written down, but I'll yield the floor to anything you guys want to throw at first.
Sure, I got two that are mainstays for me. Generally, when I'm in auctions, I generally don't bid early. I generally wait on bidding because I let some money leave the room first. I generally hold myself to a fifteen percent rule. I know that I fifteen percent of my budget on any player. It usually gives me a pretty dang deep roster. I've been known to go outside of that every once in a while when I'm just caught up in the moment, because that's what happens in auctions and.
That's part of the fun of it.
But I try to stay fifteen percent or less on my you know, basically my starting line of players, and then I always want to be the one who grabs players at the top of a tier instead of the to the tier the end of the tier of players that'll tend to drive up the price on a player that's similar.
That is a The tiered part of that is a great conversation. For example, if you think there's a tier after if there's a tier one of running backs is Christian McCaffrey, Breeze Hall, Bijon Robinson, Jamior Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor, that's the tier if the fifth guy to go off the board, he's going, well, he will go to premium
Michael more than all the others. So even if it's Jonathan Taylor, he might cost more than Christian McCaffrey because there's a bunch of people in the room that want a Tier one running back yep, and at that point they got to pay for it. So I think that's I think that's totally accurate. I've see a play out so many times.
Yep, And if I wasn't clear on the way to spend money, let it leave the room. I'm a middle of the auction guy. Like at the end, I feel like people with money left are driving prices up, and at the beginning they're just throwing money around because they have it. I like to do my work in the middle.
We've said for years, you want to be the richest person at the middle of your draft, because the players are going for half as much money, and you've got the you've got the capital to pay the half half as much, and a bunch of the other teams already spent yep. But you're already tapped out.
There is a danger if you wait too long, which I did in one of my auctions last weekend where I waited too long and all of a sudden I was like, oh, my second quarterback in a super flex league is Drake Maype.
Yeah yeah, so right, Yeah, if.
You wait too long, you can get you know, just skunked out of everything.
Yes, yes, well this ties into one of my overriding themes of the auction, and this is Scott's going to disagree because it's got a fifteen percent cap. Go get your guys.
I agree.
Go, I mean, that's your guys. You know, if you've identified four players that you just feel really strongly about, go get them. And if you got a spay, if you got to pay market price or even a little higher than market price, okay, but the beauty of the auction is you can go get your guys. That's the biggest, the biggest distinction unlike a draft, where if I'm picking out of the twelve slot of my draft, I don't even have the option to get eleven players. Go get
your guys and fill in the blanks. In my opinion, Yeah, and if to me that's the biggest part, There's there's nothing I hate more about any either draft or auction than I get it. The whole thing's over, and I look at my roster and I can't recognize it as my own roster.
Right.
I wanted to be filled with my dudes.
Yeah. My issue this year was I like too many guys that are like mid round guys. So I went and got my guys. But it's like, eah, I don't have that star power this year.
This ties into another thing, and I've fallen victim to this. Simply waiting for steals is not a strategy. No, there's too much money out there. For most of the draft, you end up with the players that nobody wants. And because the price wasn't high.
Here's the absolute problem with an auction like that. It just takes one other person that likes the same guy as you.
Yeah, that's right, Yeah, and that you know, which happens and then you got to you know when that happens, and sometimes that playson is just driving you up, driving the price up too.
Sometimes I have price enforcers, for sure.
I try to build a bare bones budget by position, you know, for me as a do the opposite drafter. That means I'm gonna budget like eight dollars and ten dollars for my two starting running backs. But I'm gonna budget twenty two dollars and twenty dollars for my two wideouts and maybe eighteen dollars for my tight end. That's
I know, it's not a firm rule. It's not like I will never pass that, but I try to give myself walk into the auction with a sense of the most that I want to spend on positions, so that in the heat of the moment, I don't go berserk and then throw out, you know, throw out my whole overarching draft strategy. And then, of course there's this one that we've been talking about every single segment we've ever
done in the pres He's a non auction strategies. Early on, you throw out high dollar value players that.
You do want, do not want.
You siphon off money from the others on players you don't like. If you you know, if you're nervous about Christian McCaffrey and you know that's you know, you throw him out early. Let's let's get thirty bucks out of the way.
Honestly, it's not early for me. I don't think I ever nominate players I want.
Sometimes I have, sometimes I have to it the end. Sometimes I have to, and sometimes also because everybody knows I do that, I will do the I'll try to psych him out by throwing out a player I want. I totally don't want that that they all think I don't want, because I almost always throw guys I don't want. And then I will be quiet for a long time, and then when I think he's about to he's gonna finally go, then I'll jump in there.
You're all right, the price is fine, I guess. I guess I'll have him.
Do you guys? Ever, when you nominate, try to throw out an initial bid that you think will just win, where the room will get cold on a player, and you throw out a player for five bucks, thinking I don't think anybody wants to get in on this guy right now.
Only one at one particular moment. Do I ever do that? If I throw, if I am throwing out one of the first one or two players, there's a cold room effect. People aren't warmed up to bidding yet, yep, And I can throw out. I can throw out Jonathan Taylor into a cold room, and he may go for twenty three, whereas I'm convinced had he been thrown out five minutes later, he'll go for twenty eight or twenty nine because people just don't have like the rhythm down yet and they're
nervous about getting in early. The cold room effect is a real thing in auctions.
In my particular league, I threw out Brian Thomas like that early, trying to get him like at a cheap price, just thinking nobody's gonna want to bid on Brian Thomas. Now I got out bid a little out of my comfort zone. But I thought that was that was a move that I was trying to make.
I can see that. Let's not guillotine league draft strategies because it's so different. Oh yeah, you're drafting so differently in a guillotine league. I'm happy to yield the Florida you guys, obviously, I've got this down cold.
Yeah, you got to do.
You want me to just run? You'll be the most.
You win all of your guillotines, all of.
Them, actually, guote, I have a very high rate.
You do, not winning, but making final four, you do.
You've done it. You've done a really nice job over the years. So what's your secret? I guess my map for drafting. Let's just we'll contain this to the draft.
Yeah, I was gonna say, my biggest secret is not spending money until after week six or week six at the earliest, but the drafting one. So I do, and
I've told you about this charge. I take my tight end in my quarterback earlier than you probably should in those leagues because I want a stud kind of like a Josh Allen with a bye week twelve or whatever you know I want, or you know, I believe the Laporta also has twelve, right, that's right, Yeah, but I was trying to Yeah, But anyway, I take a stud quarterback and a stud tight end early, earlier than you
probably should. I'll reach adp on them because I knocked down those two onesie positions for at least four, five, six weeks, and then I can spend the entire rest of my draft dart throwing running backs and wide receivers for ten plus rounds.
I'm very similar.
Some guillotine league draft strategies. And by the way, play a gayoting league chon. In a guillotine league, you are constructing a roster of safe, surefire contributors who are not going to burden you with Doug games. You know, you're just trying to finish in week one. You're just trying to finish one through seventeen, not finish eighteen. Finishing first doesn't gain you anything that the person who finished seventeenth
doesn't get. So a perfect example Kirk Cousins. He's thrown touchdowns in fifty four of the last fifty five games. He's you know, he has finished his quarterback twenty or better than forty five of his last fifty games. He is super super safe. As an archetype, we're looking for safe, surefire contributors, in effect, the anti Gabe Davis. Gabe Davis is a guillotine league assassin. If he doesn't come down with that big long ball touchdown, he gives you nothing.
That's the opposite of the archetype we're looking for here. Non goal line runners can be very dangerous because if they don't break off long runs, they don't get easy fantasy points. Runners who don't catch can be dangerous because they don't always give you the sure PPR floor.
What you're trying to say is don't bank on yardage. I think it's bank on PPR and bank on touchdowns.
I like what you're saying. Rookies are super dangerous. Last year, some of the highly drafted NFL drafted, not fantasy drafted rookies never panned out at all. Bryce Young already mentioned some of these names. Jonathan Mingo, Quinton Johnston, Michael Mayers, Zax Charbonnay never panned out all season long, and all guys that were drafted in the top like thirty nine the names I just gave you picks of the NFL draft.
But more even more insidious than those guys who just look like busts, are the rookies who eventually become good producers, but not before you've been cut. And I'll give you as an example, Jamier Gibbs last year finishes RB ten and on in an absolute tear in the second half of the season, But in the first two months you wouldn't have survived if you were counting on Jamior Gibbs every week through September and October. Sure, until week eight,
Gibbs topped nine Fantasy points, which is not enough. I mean, you know, nine is not enough. Until week eight he topped nine Fantasy points two times. That's it. And that's the danger of rookies is that most of them need the ramp up period and even the really good ones like Jamier Gibbs.
Ten fantasy points is what I'm looking for out of every player.
Ten out of every player will keep you alive until like mid November before you have to start crafting more of a roster upside. And I alluded to this early and I'll give you one more guillotine League strategy. Prioritize pass catching runners. Adept pass catching runners will give you eight to ten PPR points by virtue of catching five balls for fifty yards. Then the rushing doesn't matter hardly at that point. I'm you know that guy has already gotten me to those ten PPR points that you were
just talking about. For all the frustration that we endured with Bjon Robinson at the hands of Arthur Smith, Robinson only posted four dud games, thanks entirely because he averaged seven PPR points per game and just gave you a safe floor. So Bjon Robinson was the right kind of player. Prioritize pass catching running backs, all right. When we come back three tough questions, play along with our panel of experts. See if you can go three and ozher plus we'll
dole out our final sleepers of the year. Oh you'll want to stay tuned for the next segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Chargian, Scottfish, Matt Harrison with you. It's draft time, getting you ready for us. Maybe your final draft, maybe your only draft.
Yes, my biggest draft.
It's the Scott Fish Homely Draft. When did the term home league become a thing? I heard it for the first time like five years ago.
Yeah, I don't.
I had never heard anybody call it that prior to that.
I'm not sure. I don't know. You'll be there.
I'm always interested in like where some of the terms came from in fantasy football. Like, I'd love to know who did who said dynasty first?
Right, you could have named it anything. I once researched an article on this and I did not find that out. But I found people who had been playing dynasty in the late seventies but didn't call it that.
Ye.
I started playing Festitball in ninety two, and the way I started mine was tech. Mine was a dynasty league. I didn't call that all.
That, No, right, I'd love to I'd love to know who who named that?
It was, Sir Frederick Dynasty.
It's like the Canada goose thing that they're not Canadian, but they're named after someone named Canada.
Yeah, that's fantastic.
I love it.
I love it.
Let's begin with tough question number one.
What is the appropriate level of concern over the holdout of San Francisco tackled Trent Williams. You know, Brandon Ayuku signed. Now we've got this is a looming issue. Is it none? Is it some? Or is it a bowel loosening level of existential dread? Yes, it is, blow Tie Matt.
You know, Christian McCaffrey's calf injury has scared a few folks off of taking him number one overall, But Trent Williams is the best left tackle in the league. And the downgrade from him to Jalen Moore, a twenty twenty one fifth round pick out of Western Michigan, who's a guard. By the way, you're taking the best left tackle out of your lineup and throwing a converted guard. You're insane.
I mean, it's it's a shot of meta mules, meta mucil and some bowel loosening level of existential dread here.
All right, you are officially blowed. Yeah, Trent will Yeah, Scott what's the appropriate level of concern over holdout San Francisco tackle Trent Williams. Is it non some or a bowel loosening level of existential dread?
So I'm gonna drop some PFF stats and rich Rebar stats on you here, Brock party with Trent Williams off the field, Trent Williams not there, eighty nine dropbacks, forty four point nine ine percent pressure rate, six point one percent sack rate, five point two percent interception rate, two point six percent TD rate.
That's my bowels, you're hearing right.
And Williams on the field it drops to thirty nine percent pressure, five point four sack one point seven percent interception rate, six point seven percent TD rate. If if those rates are like those are percentages with Williams healthy, twenty eight touchdowns and two interceptions without Williams three touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Wow, fish drop and knowledge bombs and kids off at the pool.
So now you can argue. Also missing in those same Trent Williams games was Deebo Samuel, so there's a little bit of a factor there. But those are some pretty scary numbers, especially the pressure and sack numbers. So I'm gonna I'm gonna go with it's a at minimum sum. I wish there was something between some and ball loosening, but because there isn't, I'm gonna go ballos.
Loosening levels of A.
Yeah.
Last year, Trent Williams was pro FOOTB focus is number two ranked run blocking lineman. Gone out of your lineup now. And Trent Williams is a principled man. You'll remember he held out from Washington for a whole year because they misdiagnosed his cancer and he was like, this is a crap organization. I want nothing to do with these people. And he was right by the way, as it turns out, and by the way, and he's way Richard now because he's been paid by San Francisco since then, he's got
more money. He could hold out deep into this season. And the starting line you mentioned Jalen Moore, Aaron Banks, Jake Brendle, Dominic Poney, Colton mckivitts.
What those aren't made up names?
Those are made up names. Other time it's this is a I I am so worried about this. I'm officially off of Christian McCaffrey pick one because of this, Williams situation has drifted so far into the season now.
And Trent Williams is thirty six, and as a principled man, he could say I'm never coming back to football, right unless you pay me what I wor right.
And you know, and you know he's stacking the fines every day. He could just be like, final retire, I won't take the fines. Yeah, you know, come get it. I'm never gonna play again. So you should have a bowel loosening level of existential dread over this.
Tough question number two, what.
Is the appropriate level of concern over news that Los Angeles running back Kyron Williams will return punts? Is that none?
Some or blowed so?
And with Scott I could go a couple of ways with this. First, this caused a social media stir this week, and you could tell by the reactions who followed the Beat reporters and watched the actual Sean McVay press conference and who simply read the headline and quote tweeted it or replied to it or made their own tweets and
all that. Basically McVeigh wants to start the season the same as last to where Kien Williams was the punt returner to start the season for the last three first three weeks last year, he eventually pulled him pulled him from those duty, but in those games he returned three punts and fair catch five. The punt returner after that for the rest of the season returned fifteen fair cot twenty five, So we're talking about potentially fifteen to twenty
touches that he's adding to Kyen Williams. He talked about he wants to get Kyen Williams involved as much as possible, it in his hands as much as possible. He talked about how korm And Rivers He's okay putting Kyron on punts because he has confidence in korm and Rivers to spell him if need be. He wants Kyron out there the entire time. They love Kien Williams. This really wasn't anything towards oh, Korm is going to take a drive,
Rivers is going to take a drive. This was just I want to get the ball in Kyron's hands fifteen to twenty more times over the course of the season. He addressed the injury concerns where he's like, I'm always gonna hold my breath, but it's fifteen or so touches, So I'm going to go with it's closer than none. But I understand the fifteen touch injury risk on punt returns if it's two percent five percent for some. But I'm going to quote Field Yates and Mike Clay who
said it's nothing. Quote it's a nothing Burgner.
Okay, let's go to Matt. What is your appropriate what do you think is the appropriate level of concern over news that Los Angeles running back Hien Williams will return punts.
Now, Scott kind of alluded to it. If the Rams are toying with the idea of him in the punt return game, that means they feel comfortable enough with the other options at running back, namely Blake Koram, and the Rams have really exercised caution with the running backs since they murdered the career Todd Gurley. So if you're banking on bell Cow usage of Kyra, Blake Korum is there, they probably don't want to get him full bell Cow work.
And I'd say that the tea leave saying that they want to keep him involved means that they're trying to manufacture other touches for him because they think that they're going to use Blake Korum in some other situations. I don't think Kiran Williams is a top two round pick, so.
You're going some some. I am also on some. I do think this is is a vote of confidence for Blake ORRM.
I mean absolutely is, you know.
And I moved Blake RM up a few spots on my on my cheat.
Sheet, and Korm is kind of like a Karen Williams copy. He might be better, but McVeigh did say that is his confidence in Korm is what allowed him to give Kiren and not those extra touches and not worry.
And you know the Rams in the preseason never play their starters. Blake Corm never got the field. No, I mean they know what they've gone to Blake Orm. They didn't need to give him any reps. He never got near the field. You know, remember Blake Korm scored sixty one touchdowns in three years. Is the starter for Michigan. I mean it's just, you know, the dude is hyper productive. I did I lowered Kyen Williams a couple of spots on my cheat sheet, but he's still ten. He's still
running back ten. Yeah, Orra moved up a few There is some concern that this is gonna be more of a split backfield than we thought. And I think korm Is gonna have is gonna be, He's gonna be to take a chance.
To me, it was absolutely a vote of confidence. The the oh kyroen Is Dawn takes, We're just absurd this week. Yeah, some is a finance.
Ques Gin number three.
You're on the clock. Do you take your favorite available player or weigh your picks towards average draft position? So do you take your favorite available player regardless of ADP or are you factoring in average draft position?
Matt, My answer is kind of a hybrid here. I tend to take my favorite available player unless I'm looking at like a two round jump in ADP, because I will give a single reach around, but I won't go as far as a double reach around. In that case, I'll wait till my next pick, and it usually works out for me.
So all right, so I need to this has to be one or the other.
I guess I do way average draft position, So yeah, you're on, But I still will reach a round for a player.
Yeah, I don't know how you can't not weigh average draft position a little, but I will give the double reach around. Wow, Like I never know when ADP is going to shift, and we didn't see it coming. And I still want my dang guys. And I believe fantasy should be fun. You should enjoy the players you have. You want to root for the players you have. I think I'm gonna lead a little closer to take your favorite available player.
The hand gester Scott, he said, I will give the double reach around. You can't see that on radio.
What here's the thing. I must have done it subconsciously, I did.
I realize, Well, it's that's that's muscle memory for you right there. Oh that was oh purple right now. I wish people could see, Scott, you articulated this so well. Take your favorite available players. So we alluded to this earlier. At the end of the draft, it should look like your team take your players. Here's almost people draft and try to challenge me on this. You're on your favorite site, maybe it's on your phone or your computer. It doesn't matter.
Your pick comes up. You look at the first you look at who's available, the top of their rankings, which is off an ADP or they're what their where their rankings are and you look at the top guys, you look through five, six, seventy guys, and you pick the one you like the best. That's how most of America drafts. But I'm the guy who's like, well, there's the first eight, let's keep going. Here's the next day, here's another, and that's the guy I want. I'm scrolling down. I want
my guys. I don't care. And here's why. A week from now, Sunday, Sunday Football kicks off. Do you know who remembers or cares about average draft position?
Nobody?
Nobody.
You only care that.
You've got a team you like.
I'll go one further on average draft position. Once the draft is done. That value is done. It's absolutely done. In trades, you shouldn't be like, oh, I I paid a third rounder for him?
I should people do all the time.
Yeah, exactly, No, it's done. He is just a player now.
And average draft position is so wrong. It is so long. Every year ADP is nowhere close to reality. Life doesn't work that way, and we're mostly repeating last year with this year's ADP. It's so wrong. So don't be beholden to average drafts.
The only thing that is right. Is your ranking sheet available on Guillotine Leagues dot com.
That's the only one that's right exactly exactly. My free Guillotine League or my free overall just standard cheat sheet is available at Fantasy life dot com. You can get the premium fantasyteen version on Fantasy Life as well. And it's also we've now got a version of it where you can't. It's totally sortable, it's excelled, downloadable and do all kinds of cool stuff. All the Guillotine rankings cheat sheets players. Yeah, part of Fantasy Life plus for those interests.
I tried to plug for you and I just didn't do it.
No, Well you sent me up to the same place.
Look, if you go to Guillotine Leagues dot com, we're happy, Scott. Let's talk sleepers. Sure our final chance to do sleepers? Yeah, you got this week.
Yeah. We talked about him a little earlier in the which player do you want an ADP? And it's for me it's Jalen Right. Given the offense, the injury history of Raheem Mostert and Devin Chan above him, and his game taking a long late round shot on this guy could be a league winner, kind of like taking a late round shot on eight. Han was last year top two or three running back on most draft boards before the NFL Draft, nine point eight two raz out of ten.
I think that's like top forty in the last twenty years for running backs four three eight forty. He's fast, agile, high football IQ. His top speed clocked as the fastest for a running back prospect in the last twenty years. His top top field speed, and he looked good in preseason two. Just good situation. I trust Mike McDaniel to use him really well if something happens to the two in front of him.
Your final sleepers of the preseason matt or sleeper? Who is it?
I've got Justin Fields in points per game. Last season, Justin Fields finished as QB twelve right abully, yeah, right, about the same level as c J. Stroud and Kyler Murray. But this year he's backing up Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh for now. Fields completed nineteen of twenty seven attempts for one hundred and ninety nine yards and one scoring drive in the preseason. Wilson only completed ten of twelve for
seventy three yards. Fields was averaging eight point three yards per attempt in the air well, Wilson was averaging an a dot of five point seven. That's too low. Fields is a better passer, and we already know that Fields is a better runner. The Steelers lead off the season against Atlanta, then Wilson has the revenge game in Denver. But if Sean Payton doesn't know the entire book of Russell Wilson, who does, so I think the Steelers might go oh to two in their first two games.
And the Steelers take this schedules really top the.
Week one, it's Atlanta and Atlanta and then and then Denver. So if they switch to Field at Denver, oh, I think they might just because they know Russell Wilson so well. Maybe, but I.
Think I got Denver's like one of the three worst teams in the NFA. Fields is going to.
Start eventually at some point this season. They have to know what they get. They're they're trying to figure out who their quarterback for next year is. And if you get Fields in there, you get a guy who's top fifteen quarterback upside the rest of the way, and you can get him with the last pick in your draft.
YEP, my sleeper of the week is in sneaky fashion, two sleepers who are connected to each other. Now, if TJ. Hockinson were healthy and he's one of my two, where would he be among your tight end list? He'd be sitting somewhere like top five, right, Yeah, I was gonna say for sure top eight, but yes, he could be pushing higher. Yeah, you know, I think Laporter would still be one, but Hockinson would.
Be right in the Mark Andrews this area.
Yeah, not before. So you know right now he's going off the board is like tight end fourteen. So here's the combo I want to propose to you. Okay, so you take Hockinson in what is now like round eleven or something like this around he's very likely base and everything we know right now, he's very likely to come back in October. So then I give you the other part of this sleeper duo, your handcuff to bridge the gap until Hockinson comes back. Zach Ertz, Well, you can
take with the last pick of your draft. He is the veteran who's reunited with Cliff Kingsbury in Washington. Now Washington drafted Ben Sennett and his prospects look good. But Ben Sennett doesn't look like somebody who's going to be an immediate starter and an immediate impact guy. I don't think he's gonna I don't think he's at the Sam Laporta level of development yet. In fact, I don't think
anybody does. So Senate's gonna take some time. In the meantime, good old safe zach Ertz, who's getting most all the run with the first team in Washington. He's going to start these start the season, and he's my bridge for you until you get TJ. Hockinson. And now you get a top five ish tight end who you didn't have to pay, you'd be paid like round ten equity for.
I like it. I Oh, by the way, Johan Dotson's gun John Dog.
Yeah, that frees up a bunch of targets. In fact, Washington's got several, Yeah, a lot of bag hitting targets. Anyway, I'm not totally sure what the exact number is. But when we come back, we got to break down two games. We got a Thursday and Friday night game Fantasy Football Weekly style with all the player grades coming your way. We'll tell you what we think is going to happen Thursday Friday of this coming week and get your head
start on the whole regular season. Fantasy Football Weekly final segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Chargi and Scott Fish Matt Harrison with you. We're breaking down the Thursday games and the Friday game. It's Friday game here, Thursday, Baltimore at Kansas City. These teams met two games ago in the AFC Championship Game, a very low scoring game seventeen to ten despite good weather in that late January game. I've got a bunch of b grades to hand out
for Baltimore, beginning with Derrick Henry. His Baltimore debut was going to be a ton of fun here. It's much the same run defense, well overall defense for Kansas City, and in the AFC Championship game, the Ravens barely tried to run just six rushing attempts in the whole game, which is incredible. Kansas City's run defense was good but not dominating last year, allowing the second fewest rushing touchdowns
just six all year, and even volume backs struggled. The six backs that had eighteen or more carries, which I think, like Derek Henry is likely to get eighteen or more, they still only averaged ninety yards per game and just zero point two touchdowns. So I can only get Derrick Henry to a B grade in this game. Let's go
to the passing offense Lamar Jackson. Kansas City's defense was dominating for much of last year, shutting down guys like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts and Tua, and in the playoff game against Jackson last year, he threw a whopping thirty eight times. I told you they didn't run at all. It was all passing two hundred and seventy five yards on a score, which is aboutwood feels right here with most of the same weapons on both sides of the ball.
The Chiefs saw the most opposing quarterback runs last year, more than any other team, and Jackson ran for fifty four yards in the January meeting. So continue to help you out on the ground here in all probability, and a B grade for him. A B grade for Za Flowers. He posted his best game as a pro in the previous meeting, one hundred and fifteen yards and a score.
Last year, Flowers moved all over the field, lining up equally from the slot the left, the right side of the field and The Chiefs have got one very good cornerback, Trent McDuffie. He finished his Pro Football Focus's twentieth ranked coverage cornerback last year, giving up just twenty nine receiving
yards per game. Considering the talent drop off after Flowers, you know, McDuffie I think is going to sh shato Flowers, which worries me here because he is really good and there's nobody else worthy of Trent McDuffie's coverage, and he does shadow sometimes, so I'm worried about that. And I think that I can only get Zay Flowers to a bee and I almost knocked him down to a sea. If you told me McDuffie was going to a shadow, I'd put him at a seat. Let's talk Mark Andrews.
The Chiefs were a good, not great tight end defense last year. They absolutely shut down Andrews in the playoff game, just two catches in for fifteen yards. But that was also his first game back off a two month injury, and he should be better in this game, fully healthy. And we all know Mark Andrews is a target hog when he is on the field. I've got a B grade there, And if you want to throw a speculative dart throw on Rashad Babeman C grade, earning lots of
praise in training camp from John Harbaugh. With Trent McDuffie tied up with Flowers, Baateman gets much easier coverage from Chamari Connor and Nazy Johnson. Connor has seen eighteen career targets and Johnson hasn't ever seen the field before. And those guys might be starting cornerbacks here. So I think Bateman is startable. We had to take a chance to me segment. Yeah probably, Yeah, it's Kansas City. I've got
an A grade on Travis Kelcey. I'll note in the AFC Championship Game eleven targets and eleven catches against Baltimore. Big game. There B grade on Patrick Mahomes. He was quiet in the AFC Championship Game, just two hundred and forty one yards in a touchdown. The Ravens were an elite pass defense last year, and almost the exact same defense of personnel comes back this year. Baltimore averaged just
one passing touchdown allowed per game. That's it, and no opposing passer hit three hundred yards against Baltimore all last year and eleven quarterbacks didn't even top two hundred and twenty seven yards against the Ravens. They had the number two ranked overall pass defense by Pro Football Focus. I can only get you to a B grade on Mahomes that if I had the guts, I'd put a C grade on him. Let's stay with the receivers, for she Wright comes in with. Rice comes in with a C grade.
Heavily involved in the AFC Championship game nine targets, eight receptions, but they were all close to the line of scrimmage and he only finished with forty six scoreless yards. Now, the problem here is the matchup. Rice runs fully half his routes from the slot, and that's rematches up against star safety Kyle Hamilton, who is simply awesome. He allowed one touchdown in his coverage last year and an insane
opposing passer rating of forty seven. Kyle Hamilton is amazing and that's going to be a tough matchup for Rashi Rice. So I can only get you to a C grade on him. Xavier Worthy in his debut tough spot Baltimore only allowed twelve wide receiver scores all of last year, and only two were from speed guys. Out of those twelve, the rest were big bodied receivers who had much better success like Amari Cooper and George Pickens and T Higgins
and Keenan Allen all posted good games against Baltimore. That's not Xavier worthy and Hollywood Brown not expected to play just the Sea grade on Xavier Worthy. Now for our Brazil game, let's go to Mateo to tell us about Green Bay Philadelphia.
Hey, but Georgian, Welcome to South Bollow, where we are hairless below the neck and we kick everything. You can call me Mateo. You'll notice I don't have much of a Brazilian accent.
Oh you really don't.
I watch a lot of Rockford Files, and I listen to Matt Harrison on Fantasy Football Weekly every week.
You are a man of distinction, mostly.
Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. I don't listen to the other guys. Smart teach me the English very good move. When you come to Corinthian Stadium, you may not wear green or will kick you. We were so pleased that the NFL sent us two of the three green teams in the league, the Eagles and Packers. Over under is forty nine, which is the third highest in Week one, so we expect to see a lot of golds, But how do you score forty nine goals in a football game?
No goalkeeper? And Jordan Love is an A grade, especially with starting Eagles center back James Bradbury ending up on ir. For the receivers, Jayden Reid lines up in the slot most often, so he'll get first round rookie Quinnyan Mitchell. Mitchell only gave up six yards in coverage in the preseason, but you have to give the advantage to read in
a real game. Reid gets a B grade. C grades to both Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson, who will both take turns on the Darius Sleigh Ride, and we will see Keeley Ringo, who only saw nine targets last season, and Isaiah Rodgers, who just got reinstated to the league after being suspended last year for gambling. It's a whole new corner group for the Eagles, and consistency of the Packers' wideouts wins in this case, so C grades for Dobbs and Watson. I'll keep Dontavian Wicks on the bench, though,
but he's probably gonna score. That means you probably have a better tight end on your roster than Luke Musgrave, and the Eagles didn't allow a tight end touchdown for the final seven weeks of the twenty three season, so I keep him in. Tucker Craft on the bench. Josh Jacobs, he gets a B grade. The Eagles allowed a touchdown to each of the last six lead running backs they faced last season. On the other side, Saquon Barkley, he
gets a B grade as well. The last running back the Packers allowed multiple touchdowns too was Giants running back Saquon Barkley in Week fourteen. I think both teams will try to show off their shiny new running back toys this week. Jalen Hurts he gets an A grade. You drafted him crazy early because he had rushing touchdowns in
eleven of eighteen games last year. AJ Brown gets an A as well, and DeVante Smith a solid B. Both will get the opportunity to go against Eric Stokes on the left side of the field, and I expect the Eagles to attack his side. Stokes allowed a passer rating
of one fifty two in his shoverage last year. He's the glaring week spot on this defense, and on the other side is JayR Alley Xander's a much tougher test, but still took a major step back last season with a passer rating of one twenty two in his coverage. And finally, Dallas Goddard. He's not practicing yet with an oblique injury. We'll keep an eye on his status up to kickoff next Friday. But if I had a choice,
I'd leave Goddard on the bench this week. Mateo out, nicely done, Mateo, Well done, Hill.
We can't wait for the real live football starting on.
Can we replace Matt Harrison with Way?
I think?
I think Mateo is Way?
It sounds good to me.
Far better looking, you know, hairless from the neck down and all. Yes, we like that about Mateo. Quite a pit. Thank you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly, everybody. It was great to have you along. Next week we'll go into regular season mode where'll be breaking down all the games. We'll be giving you our taking chance with me players, and so much more. Can't wait to talk to you one week from to now. From today, best of luck and all your final drafts everyone, Bye bye. Fantasy Football
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