Do Jauan Best Ball Values? Yes!

I don't know. But as I said last week, I've moved into this new house in Utah, but I don't have furniture yet, and so all the rooms are empty and echoey, with the one exception of my closet, because there are there's carpeting, there's clothing, and so I am sitting in my closet. Kent, you can see it because you can. You've got video right here. There's there's a non zero chance that my wife's under things are in the background somewhere. I don't know. Hopefully that's not the case.

We'll find we'll find out, I guess. But yeah, So that's if it sounds a little bit different, that's why in the closet. But Kent, no such constraints for you.

ways to validate their arguments with statistics data. And you're probably gonna put me to shame, Kent. I am not a data scientist. I'm just I'm just Paul.

It's a lot of fun. But yeah, we'll go back and forth on it, for sure.

that I can play from here. I don't think. I don't think Utah is a state. Now. Fortunately, I'm very near the board of both Arizona and and Nevada, so I can drive like forty five minutes and go scratch that itch.

tell me kent for you. When you're talking best ball as opposed to redraft, Dynasty, higher quillotine, or any other format that you like, what are the things that that make it, that make that go into your best ball decision making that's different from the other formats.

So high scoring offense is definitely come into play quite a bit if you're looking for guys that are going to contribute in the scoring column. So that's probably the biggest difference, is you just want those high upside guys, that kind of asymmetrical upside, because the lowest thing can go well, I shouldn't say the lowest. I've seen negative scores technically, but yes, for the most part, the lowest score is zero. Yeah.

We'll talk about a lot of those, a lot of those different best ball opportunities as we talk through our undervalued and overvalued players. Ken, let's start here. I'm gonna start with overvalued players, and I would like you to go first and talk about somebody that you're not taking at ADP.

overall pick on underdog drafts and that's RB nine. So he's going to be your running back one almost certainly, unless you do some kind of running back running back double up up top. But he's got a lot of equity going into that draft selection. So you know, last year he was drafted a round fourteen fifteen. He was one of those lottery tickets we were talking about. Yeah, and the scoring that you got out of him was immensely valuable because you were able to spend such a

late pick on him. But this year, if you're you know, second maybe third round, if you're absolutely lucky, is the only way you can actually get him on your roster. So the biggest thing for me is that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense is bringing back a lot of guys and then also brought in an additional receiver, so they have a good stable of running backs, you know, regardless of there's been you know, qualms about Rashad White as

a lead back, and that's understandable. But last year you did see them begin to go in more of a three headed drag in kind of deployment system where they were using all of them interchangeably. Even though Bucking Irving was the lead and getting a lot of work, they were still rotating in Rashod White, still rotating in Sean Tucker, who had a couple of big spots back last year. And you know, frankly, all these guys did very well.

By the advanced metrics that I looked at. There's a step that I used called rushing yards over expectation, which basically takes into account you know where they are on the field, what the scheme is like, and a variety of different attributes for that individual down and says they could run for three and a half yards, but they ran for five instead, so that's one and a half

more yards. Yeah, And so you know, all three of these guys were positive last year, and if we're looking at just between the tackles, Bucky Irving was technically the lowest of the three. Sean Tucker was at one point four, Shot White one point one, and Bucky Irving ato point eight over expectation. So again, they all were good, and Bucky Irving was just the least.

And you know that could go quarterbacks are largely responsible for when they're they're getting sacked on a pressure or not. But it's still a somewhat telling that that was able to occur on a much lower amount of snaps. So they're they're probably going to trust them a little bit less than Rashad White. And then you know, like I said, they drafted I Mecha Agbuka and he's going to be great. He's going to you know, hopefully contribute very early on in his offense. He's super awesome receivers.

I don't know, it's just it's just expensive. I think that's the biggest reason. Love the player, hate the cost.

seven percent avoided tackle rate. He finished at five and a half yards per carry, and his third down conversion rate was eighty percent, which was highest than the highest in the league among NFL starting backs. There's I just I think this guy is. I think Bucky Irving is a special player. I'm happy to get him at his at his ADP, which is where is his ADP again? Right here?

gonna gonna agree to disagree on that one. My overvalued player, my first overvalue player, a guy was nervous about for a lot of Fantasy Football Weekly Is last year. This one comes a big surprise to people. Joe Mixon, his ADP is fifty, He's running back fifteen, and here's my quibbles, Kent and feel free to jump in anytime. Houston's rebuild offensive line tons of question marks. They were awful last year.

They ranked thirtieth in run block win rate, they were twenty seventh in Pro Football Focuses run blocking ranking, and all they did to improve their starting rotation they turned away Laramie Tunsel. And I don't blame him for that either. He was as overpaid as a player as there was in the NFL. But they backfilled him with Cam Robinson, who you'll remember the Jaguars traded for a ham Sandwich

to the Vikings. The Vikings started him only because they had to, and then in this offseason the Vikings let him walk, and then they signed Cam Rombinson at left tackle. This will be his third team in two years. And then the other part that worries me about Mixing was how you know, he started off the season really well, got heard, came back still look pretty good, and then he just he just ran out of gas last year. He's had two thousand, three hundred career touches spanning eight seasons.

He's going to turn twenty nine years old in a couple of months, and I'm just worried that the end is here for Joe Mixon, and I don't know that it is Kent because the offensive line was so bad. I think a lot of back sort of struggled last year behind this Houston offensive line. But I'd kind of rather get out a year early than a year too late. Last six games of last year for Joe Mixon Kent.

He drooped to twenty ninth in rushing yards over the last six games of last year, thirty first in yards per carry at just three point four, which is miserable, and he dropped a twenty fifth and avoided tackle rate, which you can't blame on the offensive line. So I'm just worried. I think I'd rather get out a year early on Joe Mixon, and I think this is the year to get out. What do you think?

in age. Even though he is, you know, a slighter fellow, he's able to probably handle that a little bit better than some of the slighter receivers.

the Miami Dolphins, that has some offensive line issues. That's an interesting rough shape. Yes, yeah, Toronto Arstaid is retired. They signed James Daniels, which is an okay signing, and they drafted Jonah seven Aya. I think I'm saying that right. I hope I am in round two. But their offensive tackles are two guys named Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson. And I'll give you a bonus points if you can

tell me how good they are. But they're just league average at best, and they're gonna have a lot of issues getting this offense moving, kind of similar to the Houston issues over there. But yeah, in twenty twenty four, career lows in yards per route run, yards per target, yack after the reception PFF for receiving grade, and he tied his rookie season touchdown total as well, but he had forty more targets in twenty twenty four, So that's a low for me. It was tough, and if you

had him, you were not in good shape. And frankly, at wide receiver thirteen, I'm not interested. I'm I'm tapping out probably on the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins offense in totality at their current prices. We may talk about that a little bit more in a bit, but uh, yeah, it's it's tough.

My next over valued player is Marvin Harrison Junior, going off the board at pick number twenty eight, Wide receiver sixteen. You know, at that ADP kent you he people are assuming he's going to get way way better in year number two, and I'm not sure that's a safe assumption. I hope he does. I hope I'm wrong. He will be better next year. I think there's you know, almost certainly be better, but so much better that he should be going off the board at the twenty eighth pick.

He wasn't even close to the twenty eighth receiver last year. And you know, what we saw last year, to me was really troubling. And he was Pro Football focuses wide receiver thirty five. He ranked thirty fourth in yards. He had one more yard than John Neusmith. That's it, thirty seventh in yards after reception. He had two point four yards after reception among wide receivers that was thirty seventh.

That kent two point four yards after reception. You were getting you're basically getting tackled and falling forward at that point to get your two point four yards at the point of the catch. He finished worse than wide receiver

forty seven different times last year Marvin Harrison. So you know, he needs to get so much better from the verse we saw last year to live up to ADP twenty eight that I don't think Marvin Harrison can get there, And I'd have felt better if they'd added a second wide receiver opposite side of the field that was going to take some of the defensive pressure off Marvin Harrison. That is Zay Jones. That doesn't even count. So I am out on Marvin Harrison at ADP twenty eight. What do you think?

and honestly, he had a really great prospect profile. I think it was just kind of a tough fit in Arizona offense. You know, he's a lot better in kind of the contested catch situations. Like you said, he would catch it and fall forward as pretty much all he was doing. But they need to get him moving on a little bit different routes go a little bit more laterally, try and make some space for him in the scheme,

and I think things could go a little better. I agree with you, I'm probably not going to be drafting him. I do remain skeptical but hopeful about his year two and beyond progress. Though.

I'm not so gung ho about that. You know, he's probably gonna be a good player, but if you're expecting anything like what Brock Bauers did last year, you're going to be gravely gravely disappointed. Uh and he had roughly the same ADP last year as Loveland does. This year brought Bowers. So I think a lot of people are kind of riding on those coattails a little bit and thinking that Loveland could do something similar. You know, Cole Comett is still in this offense. They're gonna use a

lot of twelve personnel. Ben Johnson, whose new in town, loves Dude's twelve personnel. They were third most in the league last year for the Lions, that is thirty two point two percent. So Cole Comette's gonna be on the field too. They're gonna, you know, utilize probably both of them in the one tight end sets as well. So if you're getting more than seventy percent snaps out of Loveland, I'd be shocked. I think he's gonna be more of

those middle percentages. And you know, going back to twenty ten, only six instances of tight ends in their rookie season had more than ten PPR points per game in their rookie year. So yes, I don't I don't particularly believe that Loveland is going to be the guy to do like what Brock Bauers did or anything remotely similar. We need we still need to see it from Caleb Williams on his Bears offense before Yeah, I can trust you know, the third, fourth, fifth option on this offense. Who knows

right now? They still have a lot of good pass catchers there, so it's gonna be very interesting. But yeah, Titan nine, I will not be drafting Colston Loveland this year unless he dips considerably.

And you know the other thing about Bowers is Bowers on a team where though there was nobody else to even get the ball to, Chicago's got so many more options. Everybody thinks Romadoonza it's sitting on a big season that he's gonna break out. They added Luther Burden, They've got DJ Moore. You know, they've got so many other weapons they don't have to funnel their offense to their rookie tight end the same way the Raiders did. So I think that's a I think that's a great call in

Colston Lovelin. All right, my final guy that I'm using is my over valued best ball player is T Higgins, And a little bit like you said with Bucky Irving, I wanna be really careful here. T Higgins a good player. I like him, and you know, but I don't know that he's going off the board at pick twenty three. Overall, I just don't know that any guy who's not who's the number two receiver on his own team Kent should be going off the board at his position at pick

number twenty three. And so this is entirely a conversation about ADP. Like you said with Bucky Irving, he just stands in that long, deep shadow cast by Jamar Chase, who had one hundred and seventy five targets last year, one hundred and forty five of the year before. You know, there are just some games where there just aren't enough balls to go around. For T Higgins, he was under sixty yards and one third of his games, and he topped eighty eight yards just two times. He's very, very

touchdown dependent. Now, now granted, in best ball touchdown dependent is not the end of the world. I mean, you can you know that is okay to have those spike touchdown weeks. That is all right, but it picked twenty three. I'd like to have just more consistency than what I think I'm gonna get out of T Higgins there at that price point. So that to me is that's my case against against T Higgins and as my third over valued best ball player. Kent your thoughts.

And like you said, if he's the second option on the team, you gotta hope you well, pretty much. If you're not in the top you know two slots, you might get Chase, but most likely you are not going to have Chase. So that means you just got Higgins and Burrow. I'm not in on that, so uh yeah, that that's a fine call out. But he's a good player, He's just he's just a little pricey, and so are his other very rich compadres.

about at their price point. Now let's go to players that we're excited to draft and in many cases will reach, will reach for and I will once again, I'll let you go first. Tell me who, tell me who you're targeting in best Ball.

you're that cheap. But one thing that's very interesting is that the Atlanta Falcons have the fourth easiest strength of schedule this year based on the win totals at Vegas as calculated by Sharp Football. So if we have an opportunity for Penix to come into this offense, get motivated, have some wins under his belt, and really develop as a passer, this is an opportunity for him this year. Kirk Cousins is technically on the roster. I think it's

very likely that he's traded at some point. I think he is overall resigned from the idea of playing for the Atlanta Falcons anymore. I think I could be wrong on that, but that does feel like the undertones right now. You know, Kirk has expressed that he wants to start in this league still, and I think that, you know, maybe the Steelers, with Aaron Rodgers drag and his feet, maybe they just say, you know what, forget you're We'll go get Cousins. He'll be able to play for us.

We still have a decent roster less one wide receiver in George Pickens who's now gone. But regardless, back to the Falcons Pennix. You know, in his third start last year, which was the last three weeks of twenty twenty four, he had three hundred and twelve passing yards, two passing

touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. That was twenty six fantasy points roughly to be And what league format you're in and all that, but that is a higher single game total than Drake May, Trevor Lawrence, C J. Stroud, which we talked about his struggles last year. Those three guys are all going ahead of him right now. And he played just three games. Now, granted it was Week eighteen, and granted it was against the Carolina Fans.

And like I said, it's the cheap value where I'm going to swing for one of those guys that could have like a top ten upside type of season if he steps into his prospect profile. And at Washington he was averaging three hundred and forty one passing yards a game. So this guy can sling it, and I'm hoping that he can step into the Falcons offense and sling it too. And the best part, you know, talking about making those stacks and cheaper ADP. This is not a Bengal situation.

Drake is sixteenth overall, Darnold Mooney is ninetieth, Kyle Pitts one forty six, and Ray Ray McLeod who you know, kind of a throwaway last pick type guy. But if you have a stack going fee, feel free to add him to the list. And you've got a nice little stack here that could make you some money if it does step up into something slightly better than pretty good.

So yeah, we're hoping for that. I just I think it's an interesting case where a lot could go right and then things turn out really well for him.

than I like paying the Drake London at sixteen, for sure. Yeah, all right, my first undervalued player is my favorite sleeper from last year, and so your listeners are gonna be like, oh charge, Here he goes again, reminding us that he nailed his favorite sleeper last year. Yeah, that is kind of happening here too. But he's still undervalued. And it's Khalil Shakir, the Buffalo wide receiver currently going off the

board at pick eighty one, wide receiver forty five. What that doesn't even make sen That is a calculate to me at all. So last year for Khalil shakir breakout season, he jumped from forty targets the year before to one hundred targets. He went from thirty nine receptions to seventy six receptions. And Shakir's really good among receivers with more than fifty catches. He finished number one in yards after catch last year eight yards after catch, and that was

no fluke. Last year, when I was trying to make my case for Khalil Shakir to be the last pick of your draft, he was third in yards after catch behind Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill. I mean, that's awfully good company. And this year he's number one. Coming out of last season, they get the Bills liked him so much they gave him a four year new contract, so obviously they believe in him. And he's the number one target for the first quarterback being taken in Best Ball

drafts Josh Allen. He had just two drops last year out. Shakir is not bulletproof. I mean, you know, there is a reason he's going at wide receiver forty five, and that's mostly because it's a lot of short stuff. You know, typically in Best Ball you want some explosiveness to your game. His a dot was just five and a half yards. It's one of the shortest in the league. He is not an end zone target guy, just a ten percent

end zone target rate. But you know, he had the big, big move last year Kent where he got so much better than Khalil Shakir was the year before. You know, if he gets just incrementally better this year, I think we're gonna see the touchdown the touchdown numbers go up, and the explosive plays go up, and I think Khalil Shakir is simply better than the forty fifth best fantasy wide receiver.

a pretty stark difference in cost. Now, granted he had a few more touchdowns and all that, but you know, I think that Alvin Kamara has a good opportunity to repeat his usage. The Saint sign Clyde Edwards a Laire drafted a sixth rounder in Devin Neil.

catching chops, interior running chops, super good footwork. He's he's a really intriguing player and and there's something to be said about at a minimum, hancuffing those guys. So just a quick aside on Devin Neil before we should just throw him away here. I think there's, uh, there is something to like about that kid.

a handcuff situation. Yeah, totally agree. But you know, as far as his main competition, I think Andre Miller is still the guy that you're the most worried about, but I'm not. At the end of last season, he was truly horrendous. Head In a final two games of the year, he had eleven rushes for eighteen yards on the ground. He had three receptions for thirty two yards. But it was really bad. And honestly, I don't know if you

know this. Last year Kamara rushed sixteen point three times per game, which was the second highest in his career.

making yardage out of that. So I think that he still has an opportunity to land in a twelve to thirteen rush four to seven reception range that he's always kind of done, and that's a reduction from last year, but it's enough to get those high value touches if he can have any kind of upsing on touchdowns, which you know, might be asking a lot if Derek Carr can't play, and that's something we're yet to be determined here, but I think maybe this is a little bit kind

of galaxy brained, but Tyler Shuck draft pick might be a sign of confidence for Derek Carr being able to play at the beginning of the season. They really don't have a lot as far as a starting quarterback on the roster. Spencer Ratler and Ja Hayner are non starters. Do not have the confidence to put those guys out there week one, And I don't think Schuck's the guy you want playing week one either. You've probably sit him down for a season and develop them up a little bit.

So if Derek Carr does start, this offense is again not great, but still decent, good enough to score some touchdowns. And if Alvin Kamara has little to no competition for you know, this year, at least I'm all in running back twenty one, that's pretty affordable and if he can repeat last year and maybe throw on another touchdown or two, that's that's making money right there.

I asked Aaron Jones about his role in this offense, and he said he's going to yield short yardage carries to Jordan Mason. So you know, right from his mouth, we know that Jordan Mason is going to get those carries, and it makes sense. Aaron Jones from inside the five yard line last year thirteen carries, negative two yards and just three touchdowns on the thirteen carries. That's terrible. So here comes Jordan Mason. We know he's a good interior runner.

He weighs twenty pounds more than Aaron Jones. He's his career average is five point three yards per carry. Granted I'm relatively light workloads because it's it's he's a young player. Remember the Vikings traded to get a Jordan Mason, so they gave up equity to get him, so obviously they like him. He's not going to be somebody who's gonna

catch a lot of passes. But Jordan Mason is going to bring every week one touchdown, two touchdown, maybe even three touchdown offense unless JJ McCarthy's awful, and that.

really worry me, even at his depressed ADP. I think you can't touch Aaron Jones, who, by the way, thirty years old and has a history of getting dinged up. Although he played all the games last year for the Vikings, but that again, that might work against him at age thirty, that he was given such a big workload. So we're going to see a lot of Jordan Mason this year, and I'm buying at ADP one h six.

in the forty nine ers building around him. You know, Ricky pearsall who showed flashes last year and the year really strong, but he played more, you know, I would say, an average of seventy percent of the snaps and was mostly invisible for a lot of those games. So you know, at the end of the year he turned it on a bit that might translate to the entire next season. But I have a feeling that's probably going to be a trend that continues. He'll have games where he's there

in games where he's not. Juwan Jennings, on the other hand, he was there every game. Yeah, he was performing outstanding and on among the forty nine ers pass catching options, Jennings was second in receiving yards per game, just Bryank Kittle, first in red zone targets, second in receiving touchdowns behind Kittle, second in yards per route run behind Kittle, second in

PFF receiving grade behind Kittle. Yeah, and then of course first in targets of twenty plus yards, which is you know something that I don't know if you recall this is a while ago now. When he was coming out he was a seventh rounder. He had a really slow forty times. It was like a four to seven four or something like that, and he had some off the field stuff to really tank his stock. But he has had a lot of opportunity to work on his route tree.

He's got pretty good hands. He's putting it all together. In the last year was his fourth year, entering his fifth year. Now, he's really brought himself up to a level that's been quite impressive as an NFL receiver. And he was a transition out of quarterback in high school into receiver in college. So he's twenty seven and a half years old, roughly. It took him a little while, but I think he's figured it out. And fun fact, this is a great fun fact. I absolutely had to

bring this up. Juan Jennings is the second player in Super Bowl history who threw and caught a touchdown, joining who else but Nick Foles, Yes, Chars.

fix that needs to happen. But he's likely going to be the top receiver on the forty nine ers offense this year. I think that's I think too.

I'm in. That's a that is a you know, it's I don't think it's gonna be a great San Francisco offense, and it'll be a good San Francisco offense and I can get the best receiver at wide receiver thirty seven, pick sixty six overall, I'll take it for Juwan Jennings. All right. Our last player to be covered in this show, My final undervalued best ball player is David Montgomery. ADP is picked seventy two, running back twenty four. Hey, Ken, do you like touchdowns?

the five yard line. And they've done that without having a quarterback doing the tush push to inflate those stats, having Josh Allen do inflace those stats. Jared Goff's not running the ball from the three yard line, that's all they're running backs. And more Montgomery than Jamiir Gibbs and the other side that I like about Montgomery, not just the touchdown upside, which in Best Ball we do. We

want touchdown upside. We want those explosive games where David Montgomery gets you two or three in a game, which which he's done many times. But if anything God forbid were to happen to Jamier Gibbs. You've got a top five running back for your best ball team, so there's a ton to like at David Montgomery at eightp. Seventy two, I believe. Are you with me on this.