Deep Dives on the Rookie QBs

a beautiful spring weekend in Minnesota. Hope it's fantastic wherever you are as well. The next series of shows are gonna be dedicated to rookies. Brian, Yeah, it's about that time. Let's get this draft going. Let's get the draft going. I know it's uh, you know, it always feels like there's a long, long lead up to the draft, But I think it's just because we care and you know, we spend two or three months planning for it and

looking forward to it. Now, do you think these rookies, because I think we got to touch on this, that we're playing seven team games. Now, imagine going into your starting a new company and they're like, well, you're gonna have to work an extra extra week, extra at least half per day something like that. I think they're excited about this or uh, they're they're young, they should be. Yeah,

they're they're gonna be They're gonna be fine. I mean, look, this is a this is the players negotiated this themselves. So you know, I don't know if the owners took advantage of the players that you're ago at this time when they when they negotiated this deal in the depths of the pandemic or not. But quick thumbs up or thumbs down from a fantasy perspective, seven, Yeah, I'm with you. Excuse with the records. We love talking records and those

are certainly pertinent to fantasy football. And man, these guys, they essentially put their lives on the line for the sake of players. They're highly compensated, they are they're getting in too. There's no surprise for them that this is a contact game. Um, but you know, we already have a lot of injuries, and we already have a lot of situations where guys missed a lot of time. And I I just and I always felt like sixteen games was plenty of time to figure out who was the

champion of your league. And you know, I didn't feel like there was uh, there was a real problem, like well, you know, you know so and so in the championship. But if we'd have gone one more week, you know, then the outcome would have been different. And with sixteen weeks, really the best team in your league usually gets screwed anyway too, right, there's plenty of those two weeks or plenty of time to let the best team in your league just go belly up. It does happen a lot

that way. So this week we're going to talk about rookie quarterbacks, and we'll turn our attention to different positions in each of the weeks leading up to the draft, and then obviously after the draft, we'll do a series of shows about where these guys all landed up and what we think they're their fantasy value is gonna be like, and so for these shows before the often it's largely about familiarizing ourselves with the fantasy notable players that we

think can make a difference, especially in short order with their teams, beginning at the quarterback position. So we're gonna hit on six guys, Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lands, Mac Jones, and the sixth guy is just a favorite of mine. Davis Mills, who I'm really intrigued by. There's the big five and then you're your sixth quarterback is TBD. But I'm with you on on Mills. He's

really intriguing. I'm really drinking right and I'm not I'm not guaranteeing he's going to be an impact player in the NFL, but he's got the upside to do that if things break right for him. And um, and we'll talk more about Davis Mills at the end of this. Let's begin with Trevor Lawrence Brian Um. Everybody knows that he's they're barring a shot going to go to Jacksonville with the first overall pick. Let's talk about him and

what he'll bring to the table, presumably for Jacksonville. Yeah, nine percent chancey he ends up with the Jaguars, and uh, if he does, he should be the starter. Ye right out of the game. Sorry Gardner, Minshew and you all you Minshew Bobos and some exciting weapons in Jacksonville. In d J. Chark, the newly acquired Marvin Jones, the vastly underrated Marvin Jones as marked on for weeks, Laviska Chennault,

James Robinson and running back. And I mean at this point, Trevor Lawrence, we know he checks all the boxes on paper, size and the metrics in college the most, the winning ist uh quarterback against Power five schools, and he's played like twice as many as the other quarterback prospects. He's just great. A blue chip prospect. What can you say?

So I think he's he's more. You know, at this time last year, we're talking about Joe Burrow as being, you know, an astounding blue chip prospect, which you was, but Lords has done it for longer and it seems even more battle tested and more likely. And Burrows turned out great, more likely to be headed for a successful NFL career than than Burrow was. And the in the enticing thing with the Jaguars from a fantasy perspective is

they're not a great team. Maybe they're on their way up, but it's it tends to have their offense chasing points more often than not. So it's a great point. Right now, Lawrence is going off the board, and like in best ball leagues, rejaft leagues, like quarterback sixteen, he's right, He's going right after Matt Ryan's, the Joe Burrows, Ryan, Tannehills, Matt Stafford, and before Kirk Cousins Baker Mayfield. So he's settled right into that fantasy relevant territory for a guy

who's not all that mobile. I mean, he's he's mobile, but he's not like the other guys we're going to talk about, right, He's not like Justin Fields and Trey Lance. That's a pretty high ranking for for a guy who's gonna make most of his points with his arm as

a rookie in Jacksonville. And he's certainly viable as a backup, but I don't I want him as my backup if I have like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is my starter, right, I think I think the ceiling is very high for Lawrence in his first year as a rookie, just from a redraft perspective, But the floor is also very scary. So if I'm rolling out Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield is my QB one, I don't know if Trevor Lawrence is the backup I really want. I want like an

elite option in one quarterback leagues. If I'm contemplating Lawrence so let's let's talk about his longer term outlook with Jacksonville for Dynasty and Empire League players. For Trevor Lawrence, um, there, the offense is not the problem so much in Jacksonville. It's a horrible defense. And he does have some weapons around him, and mostly young weapons. No, not so much Jones, Marvin Jones, but other people around him. That suggests that, you know, there could be a long and reasonably good

run for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. And you know, as we'll talk through the rest of the guys, I don't I don't know. I don't know that I would take Trevor Lawrence first in the Dynasty draft because of the running prowess we're gonna get with these other guys. And you mean in a startup, not just a rookie, not just a rookie trap, but in a Dynasty start up, his value is up from re draft. He's in the

eight quarterback eight nine range. I mean, of course Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, justin Herbert Dak Prescott and then right, but he's right in the mix there with Russell Wilson. If you're starting a startup league, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence. Like he's right. If those three guys, he's right in that mix. In the top ten, let's go to Zach Wilson, presumably the the second quarterback expected to be taken in the draft, that'd be by

the Jets. We should say, yeah, so Jacksonville. Of course, Jets at number two. Niner is probably at three, and then Falkin's Panthers Broncos are like the real quarterback needy teams. And we'll talk about when we get to pick four, we'll talk about that a little bit more. But I, you know, pick two, I don't think the Jet Jets would be more on it not to take a quarterback here, even if they love Sam Donald. And by the way, nothing bugs me more than teams that are totally cool

with having competitions at every position, but not quarterback. Oh no, our frail the frail psyche of our quarterbacks. If we if they, if they do draft Zack Wilson here, everybody just assumes they have to move Sam Donald. My feeling is, why, you know, Sam Donald might still be a good quarterback, You're gonna get a third round pick or maybe a

second round pick for Sam Donald. He's worth more to just keep and find make sure you know what you've got in him, because Donald has flashed moments of greatness, and he's been in such a bad position over his entire career with terrible coaching and a bad offensive line and few good receivers. Man, if you're the Jets, just I keep both guys and let him battle it out and see who see who what you've got? And maybe you have great quarterbacks? Fine, how many NFL teams have

two starting caliber quarterbacks on their team? Not and Donald? So yeah, yeah, if the Jets do not take a quarterback or trade down from two, and I guess the worst case, you know, I said the worst thing apage that they're both good. I guess really the worst seeing appage that they're both bad. But still you needed to draft Uno the quarterback to find out one of them was bad. She's not a great asset for for trade purposes in the future. So so Zach Wilson presumed the

to go to the Jets. And even if he doesn't, fascinating, fascinating guy. And I gotta warn you when we talk about Zach Wilson. You're going to think we're talking about Patrick Mahomes because the skill set is really similar. But to be clear, obviously he's gonna have to prove a lot before he's even remotely on par with Patrick Mahomes. But the skill set is similar. Did his dad picture the twins? Though, that's probably he's missing that from from

his bag. So Zach Wilson has a special NFL caliber arm and in better than that, I mean his arm. His arm ability alone could put him in the top five of NFL quarterbacks if he realizes his potential. The arm is fantastic. He has a shocking ability to throw deep strikes and not even with planted feet. Much like Mahomes, who can throw crazy accurate deep passes while on a dead run. There is some of that with Zack Wilson too. He doesn't have to plant his feet to throw deep

balls and accurately and just effort effortlessly. He's just he He just flicks his wrist and the balls going forty five yards downfield. He had a sixty five yard pass in a game last year against I think it was Western, uh Western, it was Wyoming or somebody um and he just made it. Look it just effortless. Just do you worry out of b y U? Of course is Zach Well Wilson is UM a Mormon in the Big Apple uch in general, right, the football culture, shock of going

to the Jets. But but yeah, he didn't seem like he would be the number, the consensus number two. But he has uh, it seems it's leaning that way. It is um incredibly efficient release with very little wind up as well. So he's got the quick release, which we love that. It's just that many fewer sacks, the ability to get rid of the ball quickly. Super smart guy, you know, book smart. You know, he's an excellent student. UM. By all accounts, he ingests the playbook extremely well. So

there's a lot to like about Zack Wilson. The things that we're gonna look out for are some minor mechanical issues like holding the ball too high. He holds the ball, he holds the ball up almost at helmet or ear level rocket launcher. Yeah, a little bit, right, So they'll, you know, they'll work on that. Um. Some people point out that he's playing behind in the lead offensive line.

That meant that he didn't you he had the luxury of a lot of time, and that may be, you know, that has skewed a little bit of the productivity that he's had and injuries limited him to really one year of high level play. But what you see when you you look at Zack Wilson's games are just remarkable. He if he does go to the Jets, Brian Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder all all get a big

bump here. And I think this is a great opportunity for Dynasty and Umpire leaguers keeper leaguers to target those guys now, especially the Denzel Mims owner right now is like h I blew that pick last year. There could be a chance that Zack Wilson to Denzel Mims is going to be a great combination for a long time. So I'm I'd be interested in in those in picking up those guys on on the cheap right now in

Dynasty and Empire leagues. You know, for Wilson um in terms of redraft, I think he's gonna be He's just a backup. I think in his rookie year. Now, rookies can become starters like Justin Herbert Right and Joe Burrow, those guys were fantasy starters and that he has the possibility to do that. Um, it's there's a little bit of Jets bias here. I just I don't know for sure that in you're one that Jets gonna turn it around enough for him to be fantasy viable on a

regular basis, But he Zack Wilson should get drafted. Yeah, like a guy if you're, of course a quarterback league, and depending on how deep your league is, but at least twelve to fourteen teams, if you're again drafting a guy like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, one of these bigger name quarterbacks that you're essentially gonna start every week, but they're bye week and you're gonna, you know, just fade quarterback the rest of the way until the last round.

Zack Wilson's in a Greek candidate. All right, let's go to pick number three. This is San Francisco or quarterback number three, San Francisco pick. Um, it's gonna come down. Everybody believes it's gonna come down to Justin Fields or Mac Jones. The the people who seem closest to the Niners are all saying mac Jones, which surprises me. A little bit because I think I would pick Justin Fields,

but it um both guys very intriguing. Let's let's talk Justin Fields first and break his dame his game down for us a little bit. All right, Justin Fields out of Ohio State, who doesn't have the best track record when it comes to producing pro quarterbacks starting with Dwayne Haskins. Yeah, that doesn't necessarily mean they can't play. I just don't think. I just don't think that stuff matters that much. He's the most intriguing prospect probably to ever come out of

the Ohio I don't come to quarterback. Spent a long time anyway. Uh. He proved his toughness in the college playoffs last year. Essentially died in the semifinal, not really, but he broke like two ribs, came back and played in the championship. They lost. I think I'm not great with college football, but Fields in an amazing athlete. And we'll get to how he's a good thrower of the football.

But the all time quarterback forty yard dash times. Now, this isn't combine official Justin Fields today official four four or four for Justin Fields. And next up was Russell Wilson at four or five five, Cam Newton four or five nine, same as Jalen hurt So an elite runner, elite runner, wide receiver speed out of out of the quarterback position with justin fields. But he proved you could

throw the ball pretty well last year. Um, here's the percentage of total passing yards um from run pass, option plays and screen passes last year, amongst so you know, cheap yards. Trevor Lawrence of his yards came from r P O s, screen passes, Mac Jones twenty two and a half percent, then Zack Wilson twelve percent, Trey Lands eleven percent, dead last, which is good in this regard.

He's starting justin fields. Eight and a half percent his yards came from r pos and screen passes, So he he is a viable quarterback end right now in redrafts. He's going a little at his act fields. He's in right around QB two range. You know, a backup quarterback in UH one quarterback twelve twelve team leagues at QB right behind Daniel Jones to Ben Roethlisberger and right before guys like Jamis Winston and Jared Goff. And that seems

about right. I think it's too low because Fields is going to run and run well in this league, whether it's the Jets or the Niners. Yeah, he's gonna play immediately. Not we assume, we assume, we assume, but um, but yeah, when it comes to Dynasty, he pretty pretty undervalued here too. He's well, maybe not quarterback twelve that's up there. I mean, he's right behind Aaron Rodgers who was sixteen years this

senior at this point. But on the long term upside, outside of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields has the most I feel like outside of mac Jones and Trade Lands. So now for the forty, if it is the forty Niners, Jimmy Garoppolo still there, and I think, you know, there's a good chance Garoppolo starts the season for the Niners, whether they go Fields or they go mac Jones. Um. And so there may have to be you may just have to be patient on on that to play itself out.

The presumption is that Garoppolo will lose the jobs sooner or later. But we are only one season removed from Garoppolo bringing the team to the Super Bowl, so it's not it's not a certainty that will happen. But we're considering what the forty Ninders paid to move up. Everybody assumes that they're gonna there. Ultimately will make the switch to whichever quarterback they end up drafting. From a re draft perspective, though, way better for Fields to good to

the Niners than the Jets this year alone. Kyle Shanahan, Oh yeah, you know. Shanahan's I think he's just an offensive He's he is. He's an offensive wizard and can get production out of guys that have no business, uh getting that kind of production. So we've talked a lot about Justin Fields or Mac Jones. What I want to do is take a break, come back, and let's talk

about Mac Jones. And you know, because he could go as high as three here to San Francisco, and then if he doesn't go here, he could actually fall quite a bit. So we'll talk through the the Fields Jones debate a little bit here and familiarize ourselves with Mac Jones when we come back. Welcome back Paul Charchie and Brian Johnson with you Fantasy Football Weekly. We're going through the rookie quarterbacks, getting a little more familiar deep dives

with these guys. Let's talk about mac Jones. He does not have the sensational arm that we've seen with the first three guys that we've talked about, the eye popping arm traits, but super productive player, super poised and um and as NFL ready as anybody outside of Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, there's he might be the most polarizing prospect when it comes to right. There's a lot of love and a

lot of hate. I agree with tion for mac Jones is good size, uh, six ft three, Uh, Like you said, not an e white arm, but a pretty good arm. His career passing grade versus the Blitz as these other draft prospects uh. In college, mac Jones had the highest grade against the Blitz point four according to Pro Football Focus, ahead of Trevor Lawrence at number two and Zach Wilson at three. His career passing GREDE against Power five teams

was the highest among the quarterback prospects. He was first at ninety four point seven QP raiding against five teams against just above justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. So yeah, it's it's some people are gonna hate the pick whatever team here if he ends up on quote unquote your team. Some people are gonna love it and some are gonna hate it. But this is really he seems to have

all the tools to be a great pro quarterback. But it's gonna be, uh, show me what you got, Mac, But it's gonna be to the Jets or to the forts one would suspect. So for Mac Jones from a fantasy standpoint, he doesn't have nearly to me the sizzle that these other guys do because they is not good. You know, he said he's not gonna have the rushing that you're gonna get out of tray lance or justin fields, or even some of the scrambling ability for for Zach

Wilson Um. But you know, he is a good accurate passer. I just don't think he's going to have the bananas upside. He's gonna feel like his upside is like what Philip Rivers gave us over the course of his career. Yeah, in redrafts, you're you're not drafting him. He might be a waiver wide we have wire pick up later on in the year named Dynasty. You're not drafting him as a with QB one upside in a super flex league, which is what we play primarily he's got QB two

upsideer shirt like you said of Philip Rivers, maybe Matt Stafford. Yeah, that's a good way to be cursed by Detroit for the majority of his career. But that's kind of his ceiling. But not not a mahomes like feeling. Like you said, he doesn't have the mobility to be a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson type prospect. He all right, let's go to our fifth quarterback that we're gonna break down, and

that's Tray Lance. Lance should go fourth or fifth among quarterbacks, and there's a chance that the top five picks of this draft will be quarterbacks. Now in the NFL, there's never been more than the top three picks have never been. There's never been more than three quarterbacks taken in the first three picks. So that's what I'm trying to I think what I'm trying to say, there's never been four in a row, and there's never been five in a row.

There could be all five. If Atlanta either moves their pick or takes quarterback, they should take quarter um and then Cincinnati at five might deal their pick because somebody want might want mac Jones, especially if mac Jones goes three to San Francisco, as you mentioned, superpolarized, it goes so San Francisco loves him and they take him at three. That pushes Justin Fields and Trey Lance down to four

and five. And how somebody's gonna pay Cincinnati to move up to that spot you mentioned the I think the most obvious candidates Carolina and Denver, but don't forget Philadelphia doesn't seem totally settled at Jay with Jalen Hurts, and they may end up making a move because they don't have far to go. And then there's of course New England they need a quarterback. Uh So those are all some some trade possibilities up to four or five for Atlanta or Cincinnati, and again especially if mac Jones goes

a pick three. So let's talk about Trey Lance. Fascinating prospect um who has as much upside as anybody in this entire draft, including Trevor Lawrence. He is an incredible athlete with all the raw skills to be an elite quarterback in the NFL if everything breaks his way out of North Dakota State, So Dakota State lesser competition absolutely at the highest, which still people are gonna hold that

against him. People are gonna hold the failures of Carson Wentz against him for sure, you know, right or wrong. And um amazing arm strength he throws sixty plus yards. Uh frequently strongest arm in this rookie class. And there's a rookie class loaded with arm talent. He's got the strongest arm here. He had a massive A dot average depth of target of eleven and a half yards. That is massive. So when Trey Lance through the ball, he through,

he threw down field. Remarkable running ability for Tray Lance as well. Now, if people are gonna give Lance, you know, give him a hard time about Carson Wentz, I want him to think a little further back to Steve Air McNair out of Elkhorn State, another small I only don't call it D two anymore of it. Back then it was D two. So if you're gonna compare fields to uh sorry Lance too, uh wins, also compare him to

McNair because the smaller schools can can you can? You can do it now, Tray Lances running ability is really special. He now he weighs two pounds. He's a big guy. Um, not quite linebacker big, but he is a big dude. His running reminds me of Cam Newton's running. You know, a guy his size shouldn't be as fast as he is. He is fast, and he's got some wiggle with his running. He is going to be a fantasy powerhouse if he can, if he can get, if he can get the passing

to a point where he stays on the field. Is a good passer. Tray Lance never lost a game as a starter he had. He makes very few bad decisions and that's awfully rare for a young kid. Now, maybe part of that is and this is you know, you mentioned earlier small school, small school defenses, so maybe it wasn't challenged that way, and he will make more mistakes obviously at the next level. The only average eighteen dropbacks

per game. That's not a lot. Now it's because nds US got a run is a run heavy program and because he ran a lot, so they didn't ask him to pass all that often, and so we haven't seen a ton of his passing. The biggest issue though, accuracy. His his accuracy is fair, and that's something that doesn't always get better, Brian, sometimes it does. Josh Allen's accuracy was awful, and it got way better as he got older, so it can get better. Um, his mechanics are going

to be passing. Mechanics are gonna need to help as well. I just think that the perfect spot for Trey Lance is Atlanta, where he learns and he can spend at least a year on the bench and work out the negatives that we've talked about with his game. I agree, Yeah, he's not. He's probably the rawest of the Big five quarterback prospects, but might have the highest ceiling. He might. I think he does have the highest ceiling if everything

breaks right for him. So really really excited to see what Trey Lance ends up doing at the next level. From I think you should get drafted. Depends a lot on where he goes. Again. Ideally is a backup, But if he's not a backup and he's pressed into service in his first year, he's absolutely draft old because the running ability he's going to give you better runner than Jalen Hurts I think. And Jalen Hurts was a fantasy startable quarterback for his three or four games at the

end of the year. Yeah, and in Lance is he's going slightly ahead of Mac Jones and dynasty formats behind him in redraft. He's the one quarterback where you're not You don't expect much from Lance this year, but his long term prospects really good, way more into really good. All right, let's talk about my, uh my, my most intriguing quarterback in this draft, and I think it's Davis

Mills from Stanford. So he's he's grading out. People think he's gonna go roughly third round, but quarterbacks, some team always needs a quarterback and ends up taking him early. But watch out for Pittsburgh into the second round. All right. Um, they have to get a contingency plan for next year in place, and Davis Mills might be that guy. I think I'm calling my shot right now, Pittsburgh's selection end of the second round, Davis Mills, I get it right.

It's a there'll be some peacocking on this show. If I do get it right, can take on this. No, I don't think it's like peacock on your this is NBA talk. You're Anthony Edwards Rookie of the Year prediction from from early February when he was twenty to one. That was a good one. Um, so here's the deal. On Davis Mills from Stanford. He's only played eleven games due to injuries and COVID, and he came out of high school rated as a five star recruit by like

every service. They all loved it. And he's like, he's like six four, He's like your prototype size, prototype size. Everybody wanted him. He threw for six thousand yards in high school and he scored eighty nine touchdowns in high school between passing and running. Uh, that's Davis Mills. I can't even do that per game, Matt. That's like, yeah, I don't know. Uh, super super poised in the pocket.

He really looks comfortable. He looks like he looks like he's played there for even though he only the eleven starts. You look at him, he does not look at any way skittish about that role. He's got good arm strength. It's not a cannon. Davis Mills is not, you know, not one of the other quarterbacks we talked about, like Zach Wilson and Trey Lance that way. But he has good arm strength, highly accurate passer to all parts of

the field. And I love when you can get that combination of of good arm strength and high accuracy man, that's the that is a real indicator of NFL success potential. He's a decisive passer with quick release and I like that about him as well. Um, not somebody's gonna be you know, sitting in the pocket waiting too long, absorbing sacks or winding up with a windmill throw and then

you know, getting sacked halfway through the release. There are some issues, of course for players only start eleven issues. He needs to set his feet for maximum accuracy. He's making he does, has made mental mistakes, and he's had bad throws, and he has basically no mobility. Um, So, Davis Mills, I think a very interesting player. And you know Ben Roethlisberger hasn't had any real mobility for most

of his career either. You know, the Steelers know how to work how to work around a quarterback who doesn't bring that to the table. So Davis Mills, Yeah, I like intriguing. Yeah, the top five the guys we discussed before, Davis Mills are pretty much setting stone. But the number six is up in the air. But I'm with you on team Mills QB. Davis Mills, Um, it'll be fascinating to see where he goes and in the right landing spot. I think he's he's gonna be a nice dark horse

for sleepers. Uh for for dynasty empire leagues, or you just if you can sit on a guy, develop them, wait a year or two. Uh, Davis Mills, maybe your player. Thanks Brian spun fun breaking down quarterbacks next week. I believe we're going to do running backs next week. We'll find out for sure, but I believe we're gonna be running backs, and it is a It's a crowded running back crop. Matt starting in like second third round. There's gonna be a lot of good running backs you are

gonna drop. Thankfully, a few of these guys didn't declare last year. They could have in a really thin class. But it's pretty meaty, so it is very fun to talk about. Can't wait for that. Thank you for joining us. We appreciate all of you who take the time to subscribe, rate, and review Fantasy Football Weekly. We'll be back next week for more then. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of

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