Broken ADP Players

this show more. I agree, you need to do the show more. You'll be in heavy rotation during the season, of course. Of course, yeah, we've been. You know, we've we've managed to get together a few times, which has been great. Um, this is the slowest part of the NFL calendar all year is right now, but that doesn't mean that people aren't already drafting or thinking about their drafts. And we were looking through the average Draft position the a DP for the drafts that are already happening, and

there are thousands of rafts have already happened. So he's pretty rigorous at this point. But man, there's some big mistakes there are there. There There are players they're too high players they are too low. I expect to correct themselves by August, but for right now, you can catch it by either avoiding players we think are going too high or nabbing players that are going too low. And we're going to talk about five guys for me, five for you that we believe are being misdrafted, either too

high or too low. Yep. Side note, five guys is the worst strip mall burger joint in the world. Side note, I've never had it. I don't think. I don't think I've ever had it. You're not missing anything I've had in and Out and I can tell you I am not missing anything there. I'm with you on that. That is that is the most overrated. West Coasters love it, and all it tells me is they haven't been to

good Hamburger restaurants. If if you love it, yeah, I love the premise of in and out, which is no freezers, everything's fresh. I love that part of it. But the fact that they've been meticulous with their expansion, really slow expansion, family owned, you know, haven't tried to like go across America. Whatever. They're parts of that that I love, But man, that's

a boring burger. It really is like. The people who love it I've found are the ones that have a ton of topplings or an in crazy mix of toppings, And I'm like, you love the toppings, you don't love the burger plays five guys has the soggiest, greasiest fries you've ever had. If you like your fry where you pick it up and it just droops straight down, five guys, it's your place. Crispy, yes, yes, thank you, and the

least amount of potato as possible, less less potatoes. If what you're suggesting is that you don't like your fries to taste like like a wedge fry, where it's like I don't like and you know it's like favor I don't like the wedge. I don't either. Till this time, I didn't think that you and I were quite this sampatico on fries. Apparently we are. The McDonald's fries obviously excellent. Everybody thinks that's very good. Wendy's has had a hole a whole ad campaign that ran for two months about

their new fries. I tried them one time. They were great. The yeah, they yeah, they're they're very good. We get them with the sea salt instead of regular Delicious. It is the new Wendy's fries are very consolutely smash Burger isn't everywhere, but it's it is at least in the Midwest. I think that their corporate headquarters is Denver and that's Uh. Smash Burger has very good, thin crispy fries. Have to check that out. I think you should give me an

up to update on Scott Fish Bowl twelve. Yeah, we got live drafts going around the country. We got about not yet, not yet, we have about seven or eight places, uh, you know, location cities confirmed for We're gonna have like three thousand people in it this year. Unbelievable. I remember, like, I don't know if we can handle seven hun every year. I don't think I can do it. But every year I get it done on I get more help or whatever. I just make sure it gets done. That's the answer.

We don't want to growing because the cause is so good, um, and it just it just can't all be you doing the heavy lifting. So are there still methods by which people can join, either like the original Scott Fish Bowl or one of the satellites. Yeah, Scott Fish Bols. What should people do? Yeah, Scott. Fishbowl dot Com is where you can sign up, and there's still like a thousand invites yet to be sent, so there's there's lots of

rooms still. Um. I will say like thirty one thou people have signed up for a fish Bowl this year, which is insane. Um, so one intent get in basically with the three thou limits. Have you announced this year's theme, Yeah, it's it's it's basically cities were it's we're just doing cities and there's gonna be a whole bunch of regular cities. There's gonna be a whole bunch of fictional cities just for fun. Give me an example of a fictional city.

I mean, like Springfield or Gotham, like you know, just your bas there's uh. I think I'm going to be in the letter Kenny division because that that shows amazing. I haven't seen Oh sure as he's out now too, which is the spinoff of it. They're both so good. You gotta get on that chart services it on Hulu. They're both on Okay, I've had Hulu, but I didn't get it. Then I should. I'll go back. All right, that's a deal, all right, So it's gonna be cities. Um,

what have you announced this year's Oddball scoring variation? Nope, In fact, this I'm I can't think of one. Usually I have one down by now, but I my the one that I was running with was should I nerve

QB rushing? You know, because that's talked about? Yeah. That So that has been the one that's been petering back there in the back of my mind, and I just haven't pulled the trigger on it because it really puts the whole quarterback position up on its end, and somebody like Kirk Cousins becomes a lot more interesting and that would be Yeah, that's I think that would be fascinating.

At the last f s g A, both Mike Right and Jason Moore we're trying to convince me that was the like I had thought about him for years, but they were like, you should do this and you'll hate it the reason, Oh I like it. You should do that, all right. Last piece of business before we get to our five guys that have broken a DP s, it's our broken ADP podcast. Guillotine leaks and by the time you hear this it may be open. Um. We for

this coming season. We're down to the nitty gritty. I think I said the same thing last week and we ended up needing a little more time. Guillotine Leaks dot com opening very very soon, if not already. When you hear this, all right, I'm gonna let you go first. I will defer to you're not really the guest to guess your in my kitchen, but you know in that regard, you my guest. Talk to me about the first broken

a DP player. I think the first one I want to start with is a guy who I think has top twenty four wide receiver potential this year, and he is currently going as wide receiver thirty nine, and I fully expect this to correct. Um. It's it's Rashade Bateman. They lost Hollywood Brown. They didn't really add anything. The starting wide receivers for the Ravens at this point are

Rashade Bateman, Devin Duverna, and James proche Like. It's not good there, um, but mostly look at wide receiver thirty nine. He's going as he missed the first five games this season, so in the final twelve games he was wide receiver forty three and then lost Hollywood Brown. He had sixty eight targets. He's gonna have a hundred plus this year. He was basically this a DP last year in his rookie season, missing games, and now he's got so much

more opportunity for targets. I think his hundred and ten, hundred and twenty targets is borderline. His floor wide receiver thirty nine is just is just ridiculous to me. It's a six two two three nine forty guy who owns the ball when it's in the yea he did in college. This is my only hesitation on Bateman is and I went back for a previous podcast maybe a month ago. I went back and watched through several late season Raven games an NFL game pass, just to get back up

to speed on Bateman. I just never saw like the I never saw the special things that I saw at Minnesota in college. I'm hoping that comes together near two. We've said it many many times. He changed his number to number seven. I believe that's from twelve to seven. That's right there. We've said it many times. Opportunity is more important than talent in Fantasy. Two plus targets walked out the door and didn't come back in. It's it's an it's a perfect opportunity for Bateman. Okay, my first

broken a DP player is also a wide receiver. Mike Williams. Now, this is my this is this is the guy I think is the least broken out of the give the players want to give you. I think are massively broken by several rounds off in ADP. Mike Williams is current ADP as wide receiver twenty five. Um, I've got him as uh his I've got him his wide receiver thirty one, So not a lot lower, maybe one or two rounds lower. But I just want to talk philosophically. Everybody else you're

gonna hear it's gonna be a lot more broken than this. Um. I worry about any player who has posted his only one really good season in his contract here. Yeah, and that's Mike Williams. Last year you got his most game play games played, He nearly doubled his previous high in receptions, he doubled his previous year's touchdown output, and he said a career high in receiving yards all in his contract here. Um. Before that, he has been an injury plagued player who

has been questionable so many times. As you know, Scott and the question will take he placed through it so times doesn't always play well in those questionable games, and then you're always battling all week. I don't know if I'm gonna be able to use him or not. He's questionable, and you know, I hope I'm wrong. This is the guy that I hope I'm I really hope I'm wrong about is it's I adore Justin Herbert. The upside is every bit as high as it was last year, and

I'm not as down. I'm not totally down on him, but wide receiver to me feels a little bit rich for Mike Williams. Yeah. It also doesn't help that remember his start last year, he had like six touchdowns in the first five games four games, so his last ten games or so, he had three touchdowns all year. There, there's some credence to you know, maybe it was you know, front loaded a lot of his stats last year. All right, let's go to your next broken a DP player. I

will go to Rashad Penny. Who's going to arb you only are they here? Um, if some of these name changes come through, yes that they will be. Yes, he's going as the top one player. He's already been injured in O t A s in his time. He misses games constantly. I know he's track record. His sample size of like what six or seven games when he gets four teen plus touches is great, he's really good. But that's about the amount of full games he's ever played

in his three four year career. Now, Um, it's it's mostly because I'm a Walker fan, I'm a Ken Walker fan. I think he's perfect for that offense. I think he's perfect for what Pete Carroll wants to do. Um, And I just can't trust the injuries Walker. You know what his injuries have been. He missed part of it. He missed one game with an ankle injury once in his collegiate career, Like that's his He missed games some games with COVID, but I'm not going to count that his injury.

So yeah, and I'm with you, you know, and Penny. So we've got the We've got a lot, We've seen a lot of pennies five. This is his fifth year. I believe in the league. He's had one good month and I know it's the last month, but man, everybody tends to just project last December into the next year. All the time, and I'm just I'm just not ready to forgive Rashad Penny for all of the broken dreams that he's had since being a first round And if you're the end, you look at what the team did,

if they loved Penny and really believed in him. No way does a rebuilding team put that kind of capital, you know, the running back position. About the next broken a DP player. Zach ertz Arizona tight end going off the board is tight end twelve. What I've got him his tight end seven. He was tight end five after joining the Cardinals in Week seven last year. Tight end five and PPR his average game as a Cardinal, a team he joined at the bye, By the way, a

very alids seven targets, five receptions fifty two yards. So five receptions fifty two yards. There's ten PPR points right there. He scored a third of a touchdown a game that's, by tight end standards reliable, just reliable reliability. Ten points is automatically puts you into the tight ends seven territory on a per game average. The Cardinals lost the second most targets in the off season. Scott two hundred fifty eight vacated targets same, counting the DeAndre Hopkins for six games.

I hadn't even thought about that, right, He's got six games with great point um. And yes they added in Marquis Brown. He'll soak up some of the two, but not all of the two, not even close. So you know, zach Ertz gonna get a ton of usage. And unlike either tight ends that are going on around that same area that he's going in, he doesn't have the touchdown dependency, right, that guy's like Hunter, Henry and Pat Fryarmouth have had, yes,

especially Henry. Yeah, that's it's a very safe it's it's it's not difficult to get into the top twelve tight ends. But when you can see a guy who's safe and gets, you know, a touchdown every three games, that's almost a lock. There's zach Ertz. Yeah right there, All right, let's do one more before we take a break. Who's the next broken a player? You know, only because you brought up zach ERTs, I'm gonna go a new different spot on

my list and stay at the tight end position. Since we're talking tight end stat lines and gold colke Met he's currently going his tight end seventeen hundred sixty three over also way late in your draft usually. Um that's I mean thirteenth round fourteen, your double digit rounds by then. Um, so he's my second tight end in many cases. Yes, yeah, he's your second tight end of it. I think he could easily finish as a top twelve tight end, much like zach ERT's probably on the tail end of that

top twelve. But listen, this ninety three targets last year at the tight end position was even. Yeah, that's a lot. That's a lot. Tied with Darren Waller six among tight ends in target share for his team, seventeen percent of his team's targets. Uh. He had sixty catches, which was tied for twelve. He had six hundred and twelve yards, which was also twelve. He's top twelve in a lot of statistics tar targets. He did not score a touchdown

last year. He did not despite being seventh in red zone targets among tight or twelve in rend zone targets among tight ends. This tells you plenty about where Justin Fields was as a passer last year, and Nick Foles and right and and Dalton. That team just couldn't get quality throws his way, which is why you see the high targets, but the lower receptions, why you see the

red zone targets, but you don't see. So where you were going with zach Ertz, You're just mentioned he was like five fifty after after the buy uh Cole Comet, he barely was in the offense in the first five games. His numbers are like two targets, one target, almost nothing. In his last twelve games he was at Jean six targets and forty five yards a game. All right. He

was all in there. So I think if that continues with a new a new coaching staff, with Justin Fields at the helm all year and improving because he's not a rookie anymore, I think he might scoreboard the zero touchdoubts. Wouldn't that be nuts? He'll be more than He'll be more than zero without a doubt. Cole commit the there's gonna be a bad offense. I believe the good news is there's they didn't add anybody to direct passes away from Cold commit nobody. So negative game scripts, negative game

scripts gonna helps him to agreed. So I'm with you, it's it's not Cold Comet is going to be tight end five. It's cold comets going at tight end seventeen and he has every opportunity to draft him weight and him being one of the guys that you're like, he's the top twelve guy. Now. Yeah, So it's if he's going and say the seventeenth round, well, tight end seventeen, he could outperform that by five rounds. Yeah, and nobody'd

be surprised. That's a great value. When we come back, we'll get to the second half of our broken a DP players on Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly, segment number two. Paul Charging and Scott Fish with you. We're going through our broken A DP players. We've already identified five and now the next five. James Robinson, Jaguars running back to me has a broken ADP. His current ADP is running back thirty six. That is round number eight.

I have him is running back fifty five zero, twelve running backs later. There's a tangible and intangible reasons for concern over Robinson. Scott, let me hit the tangible first. While we're optimistic that Cam Akers will be the first ever running back to make a meaningful successful return from a torn achilles, we don't even know if that's going to happen, and Acres looked totally mundane last January when

he tried to come back from his torn achilles. Robinson has the entire history of the NFL working against him, as really, no NFL running back has ever recovered to become a meaningful performer, fantasy performer, real life performer off of an achilles injury. And maybe medicine has changed to the point that it's maybe medicines changed to the point that Acres will be good and James Robinson will be good, But we don't know that, and do I want to

bet on that? And when will he be recovered week one? Right? Okay, you know we don't know. I mean, cam Akers came back really really fast, but didn't look good when he did come back. So even when he's available, will James Robinson be at resembling close to what he was? But even then, yeah, and this is where it gets a little bit mean, and he were going to go into

untanned intangible areas. To my eyes, James Robinson was an NFL average back whose fantasy success was largely predicated on volume and getting almost all the carries and all the goal line carries first team high high share of the offense. If you're going to take an NFL average talent and then say just sap ten tow of his explosiveness, that's

the problem. I'm worried about what's left. James Robinson was one of those guys that he was good and he was okay, high volume, and every once in a while he'd make a play like a leaping over someone or just breaking through and scorting through, escorting through like two a couple of he'd make some plays and be like, there's there's the flash. But it happens so infrequently, and because of this injury, maybe that that's what's God, that

tiny little bit is gone. That's the worry. That's the worry. So I'm not touching James Robinson um. And that's you know. And I think I looked at Travis Etienne. I think he's going about where he should go. So I didn't flip this over and go, well, you should take at in earlier, although I I do like him a little bit more than his average draft position. But I'm really

down on Robinson. You don't think thirty six, you think you don't think you should take Eten earlier than where he's going, earlier than going okay, thank you in front of you. I think I have him his running back nineteen Okay, yeah, I was in that area that might. I love him, and I think he might have him higher than me. Now I have to I don't know. I could be wrong. I don't have my rankings in

front of me. I kind of love Trevor Lawrence, who throw so many of those throws, even with like Treadwell and Agnew and what are so short, so many his throws. I'm just loving the potential of et and his college, you know, outlet being in that position. All right, give me another broken a DP player. I am gonna stay with the Bears because before the break I did Cole commet, because stay with that offense who did in very little. I mean, they brought in Equinamius say Brown, they brought

in Byron pengle Um. I'm going with Darren Mooney. He's wide receiver thirty sixty two overall, which is I suppose it could be. This is almost a Mike Williams type ding up broken because I have him, I have him. I believes my wide receiver right now, she's got him a little a little higher. I think he's I think he's got a ceiling in that top two, you know, top twenty four wide receivers. Um. We know that the target percentage could be extremely high for Darknell Mooney. Yeah,

it absolutely could. He did have a really high percentage uh um last year as well. But last year he went with Ellen Robinson there. He was wide receiver twenty three. Already with with Allen Robinson there, with having to deal with the Fulls, the Dalton Fields, the other coach, the you know, the old coaching staff, he had to deal with all that, and he was wide receiver twenty three and he's currently going worse than that, even though his

situation improved. So that's why I feel like he's currently being a slightly under drafted. UM. I don't know how much more targets he can get though I think he had. I think he had a lot like hundred forty Yeah, hopefully, but better targets, right, so we don't need we don't need to advance on a hundred forty targets. That is a lot, but if you can get higher quality targets. This is also the cold Comet story again, better passing, better efficiency in the hundred forty, then you can get

far better results out of Darnell Mooney. Um that And and who do you think is the other starter opposite him? Right, So there's some other you know, there's some other Bear starting receiver that nobody's drafting. It's I mean, we just mentioned st Brown and Pringle and they drafted Velis Jones. I don't think it's gonna be Jones, especially not Byron Pringles, my guy. I thought Pringle looked had flashes of competence

in the Kansas City offense. He has got a guy that has definitely showing flashes in the past, but there's never been anything consistent. But if if he gets consistent work in the lineup, maybe it turned Maybe it happens. One of one of the hallmarks of our preseason Fantasy Football Weekly Scott as we talked about last pick of the draft. You know, give me guys, the last pick of the draft Byron Pringle is a guy to consider last pick of my draft. Like it. One more thing

on Mooney. Just watching last year, it seemed like Fields preferred to go to Mooney, and that's kind of why. But also even when he got in trouble, it felt like he was looking for Mooney, and that's something I really like to see for a potential wide receiver one on a team. The next broken ADP player is rookie wide receiver Sky More from Kansas City, currently going off the board as wide receiver sixty five. What round fifteen,

I've got him as wide receiver forty nine, which feels low. Actually, I'm tempted to move him up, and I'll try try to talk to myself into it. Right now, there's um there's a very real chance the best wide receiver on a Patrick's Patrick Mahomes led offense right now, right this minute, is sky Moore. It's extremely possible. The Chiefs lead the NFL in vacated targets by a mile. Fifty three per cent of last year's targets are gone, Hill, Pringle, Robinson gone,

and sure Travis Kelsey is gonna get fed. But among wide receivers Sky morse competition for those delicious Patrick Mahomes targets are the proven unreliable Judu Smith Schuster and the proven unreliable Nicole Hardman. Sky Moore could be he could end up if he's the best receiver on this team right now. Wide receiver on this team right now, he could walk right into a Tyreek Hill level of target

chair absolute. Really. I know there's been talking about them spreading the ball around a little bit more, but there's just so much volume to be had, and if he turns out to be the best one, and it feels like he probably is the best one, um, especially since he should get targets that Juju might take a lot of the low stuff. He might, he might get a lot of guy I like it more. Okay, your fifth and final broken a DP players. Sure, So I'm sticking with the wide receiver position. Say you know, I did

Rashade Bateman, I did Darnell Mooney. Now I'm going with a guy who's currently going wide receiver forty one overall, No wide forty one and nine two overall, Alan Robinson for the Rams. I don't under what is going on? What are we doing here? I don't understand it. Did people not see Robert Woods dominate as the wide receiver

two in that offense? Did they? I mean? Okay, so the first nine weeks last year, before Robert Woods got injured, he was wide receiver twelve and in weeks twelve weeks twelve on Odell Beckham was wide receiver, and now we have Allen Robinson taking that role. Even in the games that you know that there were the games that they were both out, uh, Van Jefferson had a decent game like that second receiver is very valuable there, even if you think he's kind of washed. Why do you? Receiver

forty one is way way, way too long? This is we forgot he existed while we were drafted. He wasn't in the like a d P as I was drafted, and then oh at the end, I gotta steal Why do you? Why did you? Receiver forty one is ridiculous for the second receiver in that offense is gonna put up top twenty five numbers. I believe I have I have Robinson inside my top twenty five and he's going to wide forty one. I think that's majorly broken. I'm

with you on that. And and and it's if you're holding down suppressing the value of Allen Robinson because of what he did as a bear in a Matt Naggy offense, shame on you. I'm with you. That's that's I think that's extremely valid. Our final ADP. Broken player is a player I've already talked about at least once every month now for three months, so I'm sorry to repeat myself on that. Right, it's been two weeks, So sorry about going back to this guy so many times. Rookie running

back Damian Pierce Houston. His current ADP is running back fifty four. He's going off the board in round fifteen. He's my running back thirty three zero thirty. Now there's expected to be something of a rotation of backs in Houston, but the all but certain goal line player is going to be Pierce. He's built perfectly for it, and nobody else really is there. And he's only got to beat out Marlon Mack and Rex Burke head for carries. That

should not be a problem. It really shouldn't. My My worst fear I talked about this on the show too, is that the Texans will text in it up and make it a rotation and we'll all be good when it I think it pretty clearly should be Pierced. It should be Pierce. Now we've got a new coaching staff, right, so new offensive philosophy, and you know, my hope is that they will galvanize around Pierce. But even if he's a role player and goal line back. He should be

going way before running back now. For people aren't familiar with Pierce because you maybe it didn't break down tape in college and all that other stuff. He is powerful, He's got a compact build, really good footwork. I'm not I'm comparing. I'm going to compare him to a Hall of Famer. I'm not in any way suggesting he's going to be Jerome Bettis. But if you think about Bettis is a big body back with amazing footwork, you have the fundamental idea of what Pierce can bring to the

table um. And they throw to him. They threw to him in college a ton and not for a big back. You rarely think big back streaking down field. But that's how they would use him. They would they would send him down the hashes, and they've thrown him twenty yards down field. And that if they If if Houston can find ways to integrate Pierce into the passing game as well, all the upside would be juicy. Man. The biggest worry

on him, and I talked about this pre draft. Florida never really used him as a workhorse back, only one game in his entire college career. Did he touch the ball more than fifteen times in a game. And so that's why I'm assuming he's still gonna be a rotational guy. But he's the best guy in that backfield in all probability. Yeah, that's what that's certainly what we want to go. We want to we want to bet on talent and hope it wins out. Yeah, yep, I'm with you, all right,

there you go. Were there any other players that you were attempted to mention that maybe you know you didn't get around too. I mean there were, but nothing nothing as stark as these. Brendon Cooks is always broken always, He's always broken always. No but everybody drafts he has failed to be a wide receiver, a top twenty four wide receivers, so wide receiver two or one once in his entire career, and he's always going outside of it.

Nobody ever wants him. Now, all you have to do is just sit back and enjoy your six catches for a d yards coin flips, chance at a touchdowns once again, wide receiver one on an offense going to be in a lot of negative game scripts. Davis Mills, who we both kind of like, I like him, is only going

to be better this year. I think it's I've said it many times going into last year's draft, and now it seems really obvious with the way the quarterback shook out, But had Davis Mills been in this past year's draft, he'd have been number one by a mile. I remember last year we were both we were both wanting Davis Mills to go to the Vikings, and I remember that's. Yeah, that was yet another thing much like the Fries that we had in coming. Super frustrate. But there's so many

frustrations as Viking fans. Yes, it's very very tough. Us Surprised you didn't have Kirk Cousins as broken ADP. Well, he probably it's a broken I mean, all the guy does is finished quarterback twelve every year and then everybody ranks from his quarterback twenty. I don't know what more you want. He's get this. The last time he has he didn't throw a touchdown in the past, did not throw a touchdown in the game was thirty one games, agot one. I mean, what do you want, dude, is

he's just a rock solid fantasy contributor. Yeah, super safe, super safe. Agreed? All right, thank you, Scott and thanks to everybody who listened got to the end of the Fantasy Football Weekly podcast weed. We'll be back next week for more stuff. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my Heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.