Are you getting the first round right?

of my co hosts with me today. I guess thanks to relaxed social distancing, Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson, we're back together again, a three way. I've never felt less relaxed. I feel very I'm very old people people. Yeah, it's weird. Would you like to touch elbows? Brian la celebratory, secret, very secretive elbow bump. Probably. Uh. There's a lot to get to over the course of the show. Fantasy Football Weekly, and this show is dedicated to the first round of

your draft. We're going to look at every pick that you the people are making in the first round. We'll tell you who you're taking first, who you're taking second, who you're taking third, by average draft position, and whether or not that's right. We're gonna be evaluating your picks. We got to change this a dp before it gets out of hand. Yeah, there's some changes to be made out here. Now. Generally I think the public does a pretty good job, but we've got a lot to quibble with.

In the first round is very important. Really, if you're gonna miss up any round, you can lose your league in the first round, you can, and that is part of the draft strategy. Are you looking in the first round? Do you want the pick that's going to help rocket you to a championship or is it more important to get the safe pick and don't get the one that's gonna torpedo your team like David Johnson last year who went off in the middle first round and gave you nothing.

Antonio Brown and well he wasn't a first rounder. Well it depends on what time of the summer were draft David Johnson the year before. There's that too. There's that too. You know this is gonna be the year when David Johnson blows up, so nobody's gonna draft him. And you know that's that would be fantasy football in a nutshell right there. So does the public, you the listening audience have it right? We're gonna go through every pick of the first round, the twelve picks the public is selecting.

We'll tell you if we believe your selections are too high, too low, or just right. We begin with the first overall pick. By consensus, you are taking Christian McCaffrey, last year's number one overall score and is number one at the position. Is it possible you're taking him too low at number one? Um the Panthers with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Will Greer last year, we're second in the league

with six thirty passing attempts, most forty per game. Their defense is going to be worseless year with the loss of Luke Keikley. They're gonna be playing from behind, meeting check down. Teddy will be throwing the ball, maybe just as much. As I mentioned in previous episodes, bridgewaters average depth of target is five point four yards. That spells good for him. That spells doom for Curtis Samuel and

Robby Anderson, who are both deep threats. And DJ Moore's average depth of target last year was around eleven point one yards. Plus Greg Olsen is gone. Yes, that means Christian McCaffrey is going to catch a whole heck of a lot of balls because his average depth of target zero point seven yards, that is own right there. Well,

it's kind of in his max range for Teddy Bridgewater. Actually, I think McCaffrey will set the record, maybe a record that won't be beaten ever for running back receptions this year. He led last year all running backs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, total touchdowns, and he was second in Russian yards last year Chris to McCaffrey in ESPN scoring system. Last year, Christian McCaffrey scored twenty two more Fantasy points

than the next closest running back. That's that's the equivalent of really like getting a free flex player, justin the differential that he brought. I think I read in fantasy points he he totaled the number ten and number eleven running backs last year together, So you get an extra starter on the field with him. All right, let's the one,

the one argument you can make against Christian mcafy. Yes, but you know, let's try to let's try to make some cases why you wouldn't take Christian McCaffrey number one, because there there are reasons. History is the one I can think of, and that is essentially Priest Holmes is the only running back that's ever repeated as number one, number one fantasy running back back to back years, and

I was back in two three. It's either it's not often though, it's domin no matter what, Predominantly, guys don't back to back now, and you know, we've gotten very excited about players before after monster seasons. Chris Johnson comes to mind, your boy tap dancing Nancy, But he was a tap dancing Nancy for all the reasons Matt suggested. I mean, the stars are aligning for even a better season. So there's one guy you can aregue taking over mccaff We all know who that is. But I think we

can get to the the question here. So one is, you know, even we all think the regression is possible, just because history says a repression. But here's the things it's possible even if Christian McCaffrey regressed by he'd be the last year's highest scoring running back. Now I'll give you this is here's the one angle I've come up with that I think is a legitimate one that could hurt Christian McCaffrey. Really a massively rebuilt Carolina Panther's offensive

line that will probably take time to gel. They gained left tackle Russell o'cum, the formal Pro bowler that was traded from the Chargers. Left tackle John Miller replaces greg Van Roten, and right guard Michael Schofield will start in place of Trey Turner, who went back to the Chargers in that deal. And that's a lot of moving parts and at at in new coaching staff, and there's it could be that this offense and the offensive line just doesn't function right while they iron out all the new

components of a new offensive. And while pass catching running backs are immune to some of that, they're not immune to all of that. And he we still need him to run. So I think that's the best case to make against Christian McCaffrey. It's not even that good of a case, all right, So do you believe it's not Do you believe Christian McCaffrey should go number one? Is that I can't here? Is it too high? Too low? Or is it just right? Can't be two? Can't be

too high because he's number one, he's just right. What do you think, Brian, I'll go just right to just right. We all agree with Christian McAffrey just right. Let's go to the average as of Laton a favorite year. Ever, let's go to the player you are taking second in the first round. As we avail to evaluate your first round. These are the twelve picks that you are selecting an average draft position by ESPN Drafts, and that is Michael Thomas.

People clearly drinking too much during quarantine time and ap you got from ESPSP belief. This is ESPNS average draft position. Last year he was wide receiver number one. He was ranked third overall in scoring. I'll go I guess, I mean, I don't even know if I take Michael Thomas as my top wide receiver, but I'm not taking them second. I'm very much on the fence with taking se Kwon Berkley over Christian McCaffrey, just to be a bit contrarian

and go go with the histories trends. But from Michael Thomas, he he still has wide receiver one potential for sure. He could warrant being the top or the second overall pick in the fantasy draft. But I don't like the

addition of Emmanuel Sanders. He commands a lot more targets than any other wide receiver that was on the scenes last year, Brandon Cooks was kind of like the most notable secondary option and he was never much of a target hug ever, so Emmanuel Sanders coming back, Taysom Hill, I just hate for that whole offense in general, including Michael Thomas. He just comes in and vultures touchdowns from

Kamara Thomas. And really the easiest argument against not taking Thomas here, I'm sorry, I kind of jump the gun and answered the question is wide receiver is the deepest I can remembered ever being in the twenty five issue years I've played fantasy football, You've got guys and the opposite kind of year, you got guys like Juju Smith Schuster who are like ranked in the thirties predominantly by most experts and whatnot. So I just I cannot take

Michael Thomas second here. And what what say? What percentage of fantasy owners have ever regretted their selection of Michael Thomas no matter where they took him. Uh, it's about uh maybe point oh oh one. Nobody's ever regretted. This is the safest pick in fantasy football, Michael Thomas. But

should he go at position number two? So the knock I have on him here was Breeze went from averaging forty two passing attempts per game in sixteen and basically over forty per game for the prior ten years, to thirty four or fewer in each of the last three seasons. Manuel Sanders Brian mentioned his legit and capable defense. If Breeze's arm isn't up for throwing forty times a game.

Thomas seems due for some regression because he had a hundred and eighty five targets, one forty nine receptions, and seventy five for yardage. But even if he regresses to his two thousand eighteen numbers, which that's likely, he's still getting a hundred and twenty five catches for fourteen hundred yards and nine touchdowns. So I I think that he's going to regress some, but you're not gonna feel bad if you take him in the top five. So you're you're saying, give me, is this is he being a

position number two? Is Michael Thomas too high he's too right? Or too low? He's too high? Because I'd I'd take a running back over him. He's just right. Incredible depth of quarterback with Drew Brees Jamis Winston, who would likely get lots of reps in the event that Drew Brees got hurt, and then Taysom Hill does for whatever, for whatever faults he has, he also can throw a nice deep ball and he can do some things. And then you guys are so wrong in Emmanuel Sanders. Emmanuel Sanders

helps his cause he has been languishing. Michael Thomas. He hasn't been languishing. He's had too. He has had to take full coverage, the best coverage. Nobody, no other wide receivers offering defense is anything to look at. Emmanuel Sanders will at least make keep defenses a little bit honest an, I think that will ultimately help in the long run. Michael Thomas. I believe it is just right at pick number two. When we come back, we will begin looking

at pick number three that you've got. We're evaluating the public's drafting through the first round you took, by average draft position and ESPN drafts you've taken. Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas. We'll talk about picks number three, four and five when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm your host Paul Charchy and my co host today are Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. You can follow us on Twitter. I am at Paul Charchi

and Matt Harrison is at explosive output. And and all these years years later it Bryan has available it at b t x J b t x J. It's still waiting for some corporation that needs t pay up. Well for that, it's only four digits long. I got it a long time ago. Good for you. We are looking at the first round draft picks. Your the public's first round draft picks. The twelve rounds comprising the first round on ESPN average draft position. Do you have these picks right?

Are they guys too high or too low? We've already covered Christian McCaffrey. Consensus was that was correct at number one. Michael Thomas, two of the three of us said it was too high at number two. And with the third pick you are selecting, say Kwon Barkley, Matt, do you believe it pick number three? Say Kwon Barkley is too high, too low or just right? He's too low because he should be locked in at number two. UM. I think CMC's ceiling and floor are just a tiny bit higher

than say Kwan's. But the sky's the limit for Barkley. He's got a capable quarterback who can throw the ball downfield. Somehow that's working against him though, But it's like the opposite of Teddy Bridgewater. And the weapons in New York aren't bad. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Evan Angram all pretty decent options. Now the drawback is you have Jason Garrett calling your place. But Jason Garrett's offenses in the past to feature a workhorse running back in Ezekiel Elliott.

So I feel fine with se Kwon Barkley working in that offense, and I think he's a great pick at number two. Brian is gonna say he should be picked at number one. You could make that argument, but yeah, I'm gonna basically agree with you. And those those weapons you mentioned, including Barkley, who last year was a disaster of course, injuries and but uh, Golden Tate missed the first four games of the season, Evan Ingram got injured during that span. They never had that full team together.

And then yet Daniel Jones, who you know, started the season. Yeah, so that team never had a chance. They're finally going into a whole season together. The opening schedule is rough, though, which I don't like it. I believe it's Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco and the Rams. Yikes, so that's a murderers row. It's almost like, as much as you I love Barkley, I think he's gonna bounce back in a big wave.

Arguably the most talented running back in the NFL. That schedule scares me, and it's like it's more like a bye low opportunity. But I'm still gonna say he's too low. But keep that in mind that that opening schedu is a little scary, could be a slow start, so it could be tough on guillotine leaguers. Se kwon Barkley at number three, I believe is just right and I love him. He's he's the He's the best running back in the NFL. Did you set the ADP for ESPN charge per drafted

on ESPN one thousand times? Just to make it just my way? I hope. I don't want to step on your toes. You might mention this, the Giants invested Andrew Thomas fourth overall. Okay, I'll let you keep going. They got their early first round pick and Andrew Thomas, who joins Nate Solder. Will Hernandez also very good blockers, and the Giants also put a third rounder into Matt Perkin. I mean, this is an offensive line that should get better, might take a little while, and again, you know, new

offensive lines take a little bit to jelt. Maybe that's going to be the Yeah, it really does. And nowhere to go but up. Okay, let's go to a position number four. The public on ESPN is taking Ezekiel Elliott at number four. Let's go to Brian. Do you believe that ezequiellet number four is too high, too low or just right? Well, Michael Thomas has screwed this all up because everyone's too low. But um, let's let's just say behind se Kwan and McCaffrey, I'll say just right, um

for Zeke just uh. He was a beast last year, probably the most consistent running back outside of McCaffrey, and the addition of Ceedee Lamb doesn't really concern me. There's a lot of weapons, aerial weapons. Blake jarr Went an upcoming tight end, gonna steal some red zone touches from Zeke. I think Tony Pollard's he's a little more run this year, trying to, you know, take the mileage off ze because there they've got him for the long haul now they

like it or not. Right, he's locked in, So I don't know if he's gonna see just a slight downtick in usage for Elliott, but he's still gonna beed the same elite player on the same elite on the same lead offense. So he's just about right where he is. Uh, most of what Brian said is spot on. Kellen Moore stays as the offensive coordinator, so he's got something there. Um. He led the league with fifty nine red zone rushing attempts last steer and had twelve scores from that distance.

Plus if by some chance, Dak Prescott decides to go Ezekiel Elliott on this and hold out, he's got Andy Dalton who's a capable backup quarterback. But Andy Dalton might hand Zeke the ball just a couple extra times. So I like Zeke is the third overall running back, and in my mind he's the third overall pick, So I think he's going a little bit too low. You talked about his red zone touches. Listen to this from inside

the five yard line for Ezekiel Elliott. Over his three year career, he's had forty one carries from inside the five just in the last uh just in last two years, he's had thirty one even And but I want to spend a minute on Tony Pollard. And here's why I'm going to say this is too high. I'm legitimately worried about Tony Pollard significantly eating into his usage. He's a baller. He is a baller. Listened to this by many metrics. In fact, by most metrics, Tony Pollard was the better

back last year. He ran for five point three yards per carry, and even when Paullard didn't touch the ball, the Cowboys average more yards per play on when Pollard was in the game than when Zeke was in the game. Pollard had the NFL's highest yards after contact last year. Among all runners that had at least his eighties six carries, he had the most yards per contact. Tony Pollard had a higher Pro Football Focus grade than Zeke did last year,

both as a runner and as a receiver. And we saw Tony Pollard put up heavy usage games at the end of last year, Week fifteen and week seventeen last year, we're fourteen and fifteen touch games. At the end of last year, when Dallas was playing to try to get into the playoffs, they were relying on Tony Pollard down the stretch. Were those games at the end of last year a foreshadowing of what is to come this year?

Don't don't you got me convinced? Uh? Tony Pollard also, I believe had the highest elusive rating in the league out of players who played more than uh eight games. That would not surprise me, considering he he led the NFL and yards after contact. The only the only the only guys who were even close to him was Kareem Hunt and he played exactly eight games. So anybody who played more than eight games, Tony Pollard was the most elusive running back in the league. He's too high. Now,

did I talk to you? You're going to come out thinking about the players that are all right? So I still like seeke find I don't like him at number four. I think he's too high. So we have two two highs and the just right. Let's go to position number five and that is Dalvin Cook. Last year is running back six overall player number nine, depending on that's ESPN scoring system. You ESPN drafters are taking Doubt and Cook at position number five. Matt, do you believe that's too high?

Too lower? Just right? I think just right again. Um. Things I found while digging in on Dalvin Cook. At the beginning of the season, they took Dalvin off the field more often on passing downs, and the Vikings developed a bit of a tell because Dalvin was on the field more often for rushing snaps and not for passing snaps. First five game he averaged only eighteen snaps per game on pass plays. But by the middle of the season and in his last three healthy games in his two

playoff games, Dalvin was averaging twenty eight passing snaps per game. Uh. He's also in a contract here and it's not guaranteed that he comes back to the Purple. So the Vikings could go to Marco Murray with him and just run the tread off the tires this year, pass him the ball a brazillion times, keep him running, and just see what they get out of Dalvin this year. Yeah, I agree with everything you have to say. The Vikings also invested some draft capital in an offensive line as Cleveland

in the second round. Second and uh yeah, the contract year thing is huge for fantasy football there. They're probably not going to extend with Minnesota, so they have nothing to lose and just feeding him the ball all day and win. The championship window is closing, sor is. Here's why I think you guys are wrong in the usage is he's just never been durable, never stayed healthy. And last year in the second half of the season, first half of the season, Dalvin Cook averaged five point two

yards per carry. Second half of the season three point two. That's a massive difference. And it's just a guy who wears down. And it's as plausible as it could be that the Vikings would like to run him a lot and to just hand then give the keys to Alexander Madison next year. I don't think. I just don't think Dalvin Cook has built for that. So I don't believe that that is in fact going to happen, although we will. So it sounds like you think that he's ranked too high.

Too high for Dalvin Cook, not a lot, and I think he is a little bit too high. We are working our way through the average first round. By your drafts on ESPN and validating or invalidating your selections at every pick of the first round. We've already been through Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, say, Kwan Barkley is the first three players selected. Then Ezekiel Elliott, Dalves, Yeah, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook. And now for selection number six, Alvin Camara

being selected at position number six. Many people expecting a bounce back season after a very disappointing one last year. Brian, do you believe that Alvin Camari's position number six is too high, too low or just right? Here's one thing you can tank take to the bank of Alvin Camaro. He's gonna have eighty one catches this season. Yes, his rookie season one catches. Last season eighty one catches, So that's locked in. I like the eighty one catch aspect

Alvin Camara. No, the touches went down a little bit for Camaro last year, twenty fewer catches obviously the twenty fewer carries that the catches were the same. Uh, the touchdowns went down big time from he had fourteen rushing touchdowns only five last year. Remember, famously, he had scored in one game until Week sixteen last year, and we're all languishing waiting for the touchdowns to come that never did.

Taysom Hill, the aforementioned Taysom Hill, UH certainly stole some touches from Kamara in the red zone last year, or we'll probably do the same this year as well. The Tavius Murray that said, still an elite offense with a great uh run blocking offensive line and for like top twelve and Emmanuel Sanders comes in and makes that offense even a little better. I do think positive regression has to come. I think the touches will stay consistent in

that offense. So I'm gonna say he's just about right where he's at because I still like him behind the Zeke and the the Alvin. Um. I'm sorry, the Dalvin Cooks of the world. Uh, Brian almost hit it right on the head. Uh. The Saints had the fifth best run blocking grade last season according to Pro Football Focus, but they were the eleventh best at rushing grade. That means they handed the ball to Lettavius Murray too much. UM,

and I don't think that's the case this year. UH. Like Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara in a contract situation, and we discussed that in a previous episode of Fantasy Football Weekly. Um, these Saints cannot resign him. They do not have to resign him. So this is his last year in New Orleans. He only had a hundred and seventy one rushing attempts last year. I'm predicting at least two D twenty rushing attempts and I'm gonna say he beats eighty one receptions.

I'm gonna say he gets to So he's closer to the twenty touch per game mark than he's ever been, and frankly, it could be more. So. I think the Saints really are going to try to work with Alvin Camara as their window is closing as well. I agree with everything you said, So you're too you'r you believe Alvin camary is. I might bump him up one. I might bump him ahead of Dalvin. I'd have no problem with that. We all think, we all think the bounce back is coming, and I do too. Let's go to

pick number seven. The public is taking Derrick Henry, who was running back six or seven depending on your scoring system. Overall player number, uh player number, He's not right. I think his overall was player seven and as a running back he was player number five. I think believe that is correct from Derrick Henry. Do you believe, Matt, Do you believe Derrick Henry is too high or too low or just right at pick number seven? Keep in mind

we are talking about PPR leagues. Um, well, if you think of Derrick Henry is a big, bruising running back, your which, But you didn't know that he had the seventh highest elusive rating of out of all running backs who played in at least ten games last year. So that's good. Um, more elusive than Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, sa Kwan Barkley, and Dalvin Cook. You would never guess, Um, he's on the franchise tax. It's another contract here for him and the Titans finally realized that he is their

bread and water. Is one of the best two to three players throughout the NFL playoffs last year. He also scored in thirteen of nineteen games last season at six multi score games, and his eleven red zone rushing touchdowns on only thirty five attempts was amazing. He scored on one third of his red zone rushing attempts inside the twenty. He scores that it's not inside, it's inside the five. So yeah, I mean his knock is he only had eighteen receptions. He's only getting targeted like one and a

half times per game. So I think that he's too high for a PPR league. I would bump him down a couple of spots because now after we get past those five running backs that really like this is where I start to invest in some of those wide receivers. Brian is Derrick Henry too high, too low, or just right to pick number seven? Yeah, and PPR he's just a little too high. Dion Lewis is gone. All he could do was catch a football if given the opportunity.

But Darienton Evans, the rookie they brought in, is even more like drinking us as good a pass catcher, if not better than Dion Lewis. So he's gonna own that role. Henry's not gonna factor much in the passing game. It does help the contractor year, though. You do think they'll give him a few extra carries if they're not willing to extend. But yeah, it just the lack of past catching. I won't say ability, but potential has him a little too high for me. I believe this is just right

for Derrick Henry. He listened to these carries from inside the five. You talked about its red zone carries from carries inside the five over the past two year. Two years, Derrick Henry has thirty three in the last two years. Anybody else five get this? Last year he got all of them. Every single carry the team had inside the five went to Derrick Henry last year, and also a passing touchdown. And then there's the Tannehill effect. He topped one yards zero times in the first nine games last year.

Derrick Henry did, and then he went berserk as Tannehill got acclimated into that offense. I believe Tannehill starting in Week six and then you know, after that, it was just lights out, as people already know. I believe Derrick Henry is properly rated where he is. Let's talk about player number eight again. These are your picks by average draft position on ESPN. You have selected DeAndre Hopkins with pick number eight. Gentlemen, Brian, is this too high? Too lower?

Just right? It's gentlemen, and Brian, it's to uh. We didn't call me gettleman. I take much offense. That's um laugh in the face right there. I don't really like the move for DeAndre moving west to Arizona for fantasy football, reality football. Yeah, like a like it for him a little more, But there's just a ton of thrown the competition for targets out there, and Larry Fitzgerald, the one of the best to ever do it's still still doing it. Christian kirk Kenyan Drake catches the ball well out of

the backfield. Uh, Andy is a bell. They put some decent draft capital into last where you think they're gonna try and find more of a role for him. Hakim Butler should also see an increased role if he stays healthy. There's just so many people there that he didn't. He didn't have that problem in h Houston was quite the opposite. People were always hurt, so he was the only one to throw too. And it's sort of it's a lateral move. I guess you can say, uh in quarterback from Watson

to Kyler Murray. But whoa, whoa whoa Watson. Deshaun Watson is really really good, Like so is Kyler won. Deshaun Watson is really good. Kyler Murray is hoping to become Shaun Watson was very good with DeAndre Hopkins as his main wideness. Fair point, it is now very good with DeAndre Hopkins as his main wide receiver. They're comparable players on break. I think the weapons are comparable too. I I don't think that there's that much of a different step here. I mean you look at Will Fuller versus

Christian Cook or Christian Kirk. Sorry, who would you rather have? I mean it Kirk, It's it's not come on, it's not that you know. Will Fuller is good at one thing, run straight, run fast, and other than that will touchdowns. And Will Fuller does not bring a lot to the table. I don't believe uh. And it's it's a little tougher division for wide receivers too. All throw it out there. The Seahawks rams both allowed about under one wide receiver

touchdown per game. So that's a fair point. I like another wide receiver more than Hopkins, so he's just too high for me. So we have a too high on DeAndre Hopkins at position eight, and it's defensible, but it's too high. I got two other wide receivers that I like better. Agreed, DeAndre Hopkins too high at pick number eight. When we come back one more segment. It was a round out the bottom of the first round. These are your picks, the public's first picks in average draft position

for selections nine, ten, eleven, and twelve. We'll tell you if you're getting those picks right or wrong when we come back, final segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charge and Brian Johnson Matt Harrison with you. We are looking at the first round of fantasy football drafts, and a lot of them happening already, a lot of people getting in practice drafts, real drafts

that are for leagues. It's just start early people that have already got a taste for fantasy football, and we're looking at your average draft position using ESPN's average drafts across all the thousands of leagues that have already drafted on ESPN. We've already done the first eight players. We

now go to position number nine and Davante Adams. Last year because of a variety mostly the high ankle sprain that he had and then playing kind of gimpy after that, he ended up as wide receiver eighteen and player number fifty six. Yet here he is going at position number nine. Matt, is that too high or too low? Were just it's too low Davante Adams and uh Brian's gonna be right in lockstep with me because we kind of discussed before. I think Davante Adams has a serious case to be

made for wide receiver one off the board. Um. He had double digit targets in ten of his last eleven games. He scored seven touchdowns in his final eight games after coming back from the injury. He's got a piste off Aaron Rodgers, who was excited for the Packers to draft him another wide receiver weapon in this year's draft, but then they picked his back up and and replaced Geronimo Allison with a fat Devin Funchious. It's Davante Adams and no one else, even Jimmy Graham's gone from that offense.

If he stays healthy this year, he's in line for Michael Thomas like targets, maybe a hundred and seventy five. And I think that he's going too low. Yeah, I think Um Adams could average fifteen targets this year easily if he stays healthy. He didn't last year, but that was the first year he didn't stay healthy the three years before that. He was the only wide receiver with double digit touchdowns three street years. That should keep on rolling into this year. Uh for what it's Darius slay

Um gone from Detroit. He gave him headaches twice a year. It's not that Xavier Rhodes was giving him headaches anymore, but short three of their top three starting cornerbacks, and the Bears actually weren't that tough against wide receivers. The defense in general took a major step back. So he's just gonna be the focal point of that offense. It's not going to be Aaron Jones. It's still gonna be Aaron Rodgers throwing Davanta Adams all day long. And it's

I think it's double digit. I think he's the one guy you can say double digit touchdowns are a lock him and Thomas. But I just like Adams more. Thomas didn't do it the last two years. No, I didn't. And yet but get this, I bet, I bet almost all of our listeners have forgotten this. Davante Adams did not score until Week twelve last year. Week twelve, no touchdowns for Davante Adams. I don't know how you can

guarantee double digit touchdowns. Now, he missed four games on the ankle sprain, and I appreciate that, but that still that means he played eight games and didn't score a touchdown. So I don't know that the safety the safety that you think is there. And I think this is much more about we all agreed Davanta Adams a very good receiver, very good, But is where is Aaron Rodgers in his

career arc? I think really ranking Davante Adams is a referendum on Rogers, who last year saw his lowest completion percentage of his career, second lowest yards in any full season. He is touchdown numbers the last two years twenty five and twenty six. What I mean those are you know those are middle Those are Andy Dalton style touchdown numbers and the second lowest passer rating for Aaron Rodgers since

his first year as a starter. This, you know, Aaron Rodgers last year was not the Hall of Famer we were used to seeing. And if maybe he bounces back, maybe he's got another good the firm quarterback controversy, No I'm not, but I don't know that it's a guarantee that Aaron Rodgers gets better. Let's go to a position. Okay, so you guys both say two. I say just right, Davante Adams. Let's go to wide receiver, sorry, position number ten. Who is a wide receiver by your average draft selection?

That is Julio Jones last year wide receiver number five, overall player number twenty two. Is this too high, too low? Or just right? I've been publicly knocking Julio for years, and not because he's bad as he's at his job. He's great as his at his job. But he's had foot and hamstring injuries that just kind of lingered, and

he's been questionable for like his entire career. Um he hasn't been adequately adequately targeted in the red zone for a receiver of his size until last year, when he was targeted sixteen times in the red zone, but he only came up with five red zone touchdowns, and he only came up with six touchdowns total. And while we're talking touchdowns, Julio Jones scored in one game after Week three last year. Well, yeah, and so he is also on the team that led the league in passes by

a ton. They passed six eighty three times they were behind in every game. Um. He's also had seven straight years of eight or fewer touchdowns. He just has not He's hit the double digit mark once. He's a great player, but I would never pick him in the first round of a fantasy draft. I would wait till the second round to see if he's there. If you forced me to take in Atlanta Falcon wide receiver in the first round, it wouldn't be would not be Julio Jones this year.

I like Calvin Ridley's prospects. Russell Cage that hates Calvin Ridley, bow we gotta get to dedicate a whole podcast to you. Just don't like him for whatever reason. But anyway, I just don't want to pay what other people are paying. Ridley is just turning it on. I think really out those out of school Julio this year. I don't want to go too much into it. Ridley came on strong

last year. He started last year strong four touchdowns in his four touchdowns on the first six games, uh three touchdowns in his last four, had target totals of fourteen and ten and two of his last three. He looked like the alpha receiver at the end of last year and I could see that certainly taking this year. Wi Leo Jones is only thirty one, only quote, and he's only thirty one, but he's an old thirty one with the eight hundred receptions, right, He's just a lot of

miles on that body. And I'd rather get out a year too early than a year too late. Jones, and so at position number ten, all three of us agree, Julio Jones going too high. Let's go to position number eleven. The public is taking Tyreek Hill last year wide receiver twenties seven and the seventy three highest scoring player overall. Obviously a variety of problems. He had shoulder and hamstring injuries, his quarterback missed a month of games, and he ultimately

ended up suffering career lows in every category. Is Tyreek Hill too high, too low? Or just right? Brian? Yeah? And last season, I'm not giving him a pass by any means for his behavior off the field, but he was going into last year. Everyone hated him, you know, he was a villain, So it was. It was a tough year for Tyreek last year. He kind of deserved it, But going into this season doesn't appear to be the case. I don't see how he regresses whatsoever. His numbers can

only go up. I'm just gonna keep this very simple. Uh. I think he's well. Considering we had Julio in this a DP, he's too low, But removing Julio from the equation, we're all in agreement. He's way too high. I think we can say Tyreek Hill is just about right as wide receiver. So you're just about right at position number eleven for Tyreek Hill, Matt, I have Hill is my number three wide receiver behind Thomas and Adams. Um you

you kind of mentioned a charge. There were six games that either Tyreek Hill wasn't playing or Patrick Mahomes wasn't playing, So that's only ten games where they were together and Hill was dinged up or Mahomes was dinged up for a few of them. He's still finished with seven touchdowns and he led the league. Was sorry it was fifth in the league with four touchdown receptions at twenty yards or more. He's so explosive. I think that he's always in play. Is as a top three wide receiver, Tyreek

Hill is too low and far too large. Fact, I think this is the worst ranking here. He's my number two wide receiver. I can in my mind, you can take Tyreek Hill as high as selection number four in this draft. I love Tyreek Hill. Um. Insiders around the Chiefs tell me that Patrick Mahomes is good. I would like to have his number. Um, I can't. I can't reveal my sources. I'm Patrick Mahomes. Remember he's one season removed from sixteen hundred total yards in thirteen touchdowns for

Tyreek hill Um. And if you think Patrick Mahomes is going to bounce back to have a season a healthy sixteen games, that mirrors what he had closer to that puts Tyrek Hill right back at six hundred yards and thirteen touch Is there still a bylow opportunity on Hill and dynasty or is it? No? I think it's still there. I do think it's still there because people replay last

year too much. Al Right, guys, we've got about one minute to break down the final player to be selected in the first round by the public according to ESPN's average draft position, and that is Packers running back Aaron Jones, who finished his running back four last year and player seven overall. Yeah, fourteen red zone rushing touchdowns last year

led the league. Then They drafted a J. Dillon, whose deal is to be the red zone running back, and Packers coach Matt Lafleur is trying to build a Kyle Shanahan like system, and the Niners deploy their running backs in weird ways. You'd think Raheems start led their team in red zone rushing touches. No, it was Tevin Coleman with twenty six and then Jeff Wilson with sixteen. Most are it was third. So I see A J. Dillon doing the same thing and stealing from Aaron Jones this year.

He's way too high. Last year fifty cent of Aaron Jones is sixteen games were inside the top twelve long running backs, but thirty over thirty percent were outside the top thirty. That's that's too Jekal and hide for me. His usage can't be trusted even with the floor uh And as Matt said, they drafted a J. Dillon, which he's more a head ached. Jamal Williams is still there. He he cannot win. He might be able to win your year league, but he could certainly lose you your league.

If you draft Aaron Jones in the first round, I think I think Brian you hit it right on the head. The danger here is that Aaron Jones gets schemed out of too many Packer games and absolutely no good reason. I can't have my first round draft picking schemed out of his own games. Down now, in the first round, I don't mind taking the handcuff the you know, the two part running back. They are running back in the third round or something, but not the the end of

the first round. That's too early. And then there's the intangible here. With all of the heat the Packers took for selecting A. J. Dillon, I'm worried that general manager Brian guda Kunst is going to basically require that they use Dylan in meaningful ways to take some heat off this front office. Packers universally had the lowest graded draft, and it's care it over to the you know, general

public psyche, the player's psyche, everything else. I really do worry about A J. Dillon and that threat being real. We didn't mention any tight ends or quarterbacks, and I think that there's four of those two two positions. Give me a name and one sentence on each guy, because that's all we have time. So I mean Travis Kelsey and George Kittle could easily go in the first round because I don't think tight end is as deep as

some other people think. Uh And Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, they're just on a different level from a fantasy perspective than the other quarterbacks. I'd wait if I don't get either of those two guys, but it's completely defensible taking Lamar Jackson, who gives you RB one ish kind of numbers at the quarterback position in your top five currently going in the early to middle second round by average, John Lamar Jackson, And I'll throw one more name that's

first round worthy out there. If it's running back, it's Joe Mixon could Certainly a lot of people think the Bengals are are looking better with the selections that they made in the in the off season, both in the draft and free agency. Thank you for listening to Fantasy

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