AFC South overview for 2021. Even Houston.

it's going great, Thank you very much. It's another opportunity to go through the various divisions of the NFL and really project what we expect to happen this year. We're not replaying last year. You already know what happened last year. We're gonna tell you what we think is going to happen this season, what's different, and specifically, at the end of each each team by team breakdown, we will talk about the riskiest player at his current eight P and

the player with the most upside compared to ADP. So that's coming up. Let's do it. Yeah, but first, hey, you might want to play in a Guilloteam League. We think it's a fantastic format. Eighteen teams start the season. No had to head every week, the lowest scoring team goes to the waiver wire, and that team's entire roster goes to free agency, where pandemonium ensues. It's a Week one and a whole roster of players hits the waiver wire. Do you spend a bunch of money on Aaron Jones

has a bad Week one? For example? Do you spend a bunch of money on Aaron Jones knowing you could start him the rest of the year, or do you wait and hope you don't get chopped and save that money for later. On a scale from one to ten, let's put it this way, how much weight do you put into the Week one matchup in your early round picks, primarily first, second, third round me, I'm like a seven

out of ten put right on that um. On the premium Guillot League cheat sheet that we offer on the site, we show you the the Vegas implied total points for each team through the first three weeks of the season. So if you want to make sure that your players do well, uh, we encourage you to check that out. I believe I will have that posted. I'm almost got that sheet ready. It's so filled with data. It just takes time and and tip of the hat to our our our super intern Tyler, who has done a very

good job helping me fill data on this. Um. Yeah, so that's coming early next week, I believe, sweet guillote leagues dot com. And also check out super Chop, our new high stakes format for guillotine leagues as well super Chop yet guillote leagues dot com. Let's start with Houston, Brian, if we must. Yeah, let's just get out of the way. That was my thinking of us. You know, there's not a lot of fantasy relevance on this team that could

easily have the worst record in the NFL. And you know, we're all operating under the assumption that the way to twenty two class action lawsuits against uh um Deshaun Watson is going to be enough to torpedo his season. That's the way it seems. But he's I'm not gonna say out of the woods. He's not in the either way he might play this year. He might right now. There's no criminal charges against him. Now the NFL doesn't have to care about that, but I certainly think that that

that works in his favor. Yeah, well, we'll get to Deshaun Watson and then the passing game with or without him. In a second, just real quick. The Texans do have a new head coach and David Culley. He was the passing coordinator from the Baltimore Ravens. We had another passing coordinator head coach who were new head coach or at least new o see who we talked about last week. I think he was on. It doesn't matter. I've seen

a lot of passing coordinators getting promoted. Passing out a passing coordinator was a thing, and it's thought that would fall into the offensive coordinator. But uh, new head coach in David Culley. Last year, the Texans were very pass heavy. They passed the ball more than of the time at the third highest clip in the league, meaning they ran the ball up the third fewest amount of times. They were thirty in the league. So pass heavy offense probably

gonna lean that way this year. But who's gonna be a quarterback? Probably not DeShawn Watson, probably not, but could be. Then there's Tarrod Taylor. Yep, of course, that's my guess, is your week one starter. He'll be the Week one starter. But they like Davis Mills, and we like Davis Mills. Here rookie rookie at a Stanford a third round pick um, but with just the eleven college starts, the presumption was that Mills would spend his first year on the bench.

I like him, I like his prospects long term. But I think the best thing for Davis Mills, assuming unless it turns out he's even better than I think he can be UH, is for him to spend as much time as possible on the bench. I don't I don't want to see him until November. Maybe, well, Tarad deserves this week one started if Watson is disciplined, suspended or whatever. So we'll go into the assumption to Rod is the

quarterback um. Looking at the wide receivers, Brandon Cooks is the only wide receiver I want any part of on this team. The other ones you're looking at our rookie Nico Collins. Then he got Randall Cobb and Kick Qt sharing slot duties. Not interested there, but Cooks I don't mind him at wide receiver thirty eight right now, that's that's a pretty good price for Cooks. And they're gonna behind a lot. They're gonna throw a ton of Cooks. Didn't scored a ton of touchdowns last year. I believe

he had at least five or six. But he was top twenty in catches, top ten in yards among wide receivers, So no reason he can't repeat those numbers and a quarterback. The quarterback significant or injury, of course, but I think he'll see the volume to certainly be a viable wide receiver at three with potential wide receiver too upside. He's still a very good player, just on a very bad team. And now to the running backs, real quick, I mean, do we even want to it's a mess. Houston is

hoarding fading stars. David Johnson, Philip Lindsay marketing room. And if that wasn't enough, and they went on signed Rex Birkhead a few weeks ago, a major head scratcher, major bald head scratcher. Um The line is decent in Houston. There ranked by Pro Football Focus uh ranks twenty going into this season. Laramy Counsel a big name left tackle.

He's a far better pass protector than run blocker. Though you basically don't want to touch this backfield with a ten foot at all, not at all, And for that reason, I think over the course of the season there will be eight to ten rushing touchdowns to be had, and you know the problem is you're gonna be divvying up let's call it nine rushing touchdowns three different ways, and

then they're each good for like three touchdowns. You're good luck guessing in any given game if this is a David Johnson touchdown game or a Philip Lindsay or a mark Ingram And I just don't think you're gonna know. You're not gonna know most of the most of the time what's coming, not at all. And for that reason, David Johnson my riskiest player based on a DPS, not

expensive by any means. He's RB thirty seven right now, And if I had to have, if I had to have a Houston running back on my roster, it would be David Johnson. But the beauty is you don't have to have. You gonna make you by your roster and looking at RB thirty seven right now and guys going after him. So I'm on the clock and I'm contemplating David Johnson, I'm taking I'll put him in order. My preference is Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards, Kenyan, Drake

All going after David Johnson all day, every day. So David Johnson biggest risk with very minimal upside. Uh, with that crowded running back room and upside try to find right now? This is not easy. It's DeShawn Watson. You get him at quarterback nineteen right now. Honestly nine team feels high quarterback. You're very deep, but it is at nineteen.

I can still get a good starting quarterback. But if I told you right now, you give you Carson Wentz or Deshaun Watson Wentz and I I'm not gonna fault anyone who doesn't want the toxic toxicity of Deshaun Watson on their fantasy team. I'm not gonna even more just moral ground aside. Even if Watson, say starts the season, man, I'd be on pins and needles every week, like is this the week the NFL suspends him? Is this the week the NFL suspends him? But you get him QB nineteen.

That's the tail end of your draft. You you can always drop him and add another as you know, you know, you know what. You've kind of convinced me you're right at QB nineteen. It's fourteenth round. Yeah, I mean it's to ah is going right after him and then to his I can pick up to him. He's not a dead cat or anything like that. Then it's justin fields,

David Jones, I mean, Deshaun Watson plays. We're not going to talk about is off the field stuff, but there's certainly upside there because he had the most one yard completions among all quarterbacks last year. He's the top five quarterback. Okay, okay, but let's factor this in as well. He won't play for the Texas. He doesn't want to play. This whole thing before all of the criminal charges, I'll started, remember,

he wanted to leave the team. So you know, not only do I need him to not be suspended, I have to I have to have him decide he's willing to play for the Texans, and that might not happen either. So you know that's the double lammy on him that that worries me. Now that's not to say that Watson somehow doesn't find himself on another team. I mean, it takes balls of steel to have some other team. Let's

say Denver, where everybody wants Aaron Rodgers to go. General manager George Peyton would have to say, I'm willing to take the heat on bringing in a guy with twenty two sexual assault charges against him, well, accusations against him, not charges. Um, I'm willing to take the heat that I'm going to get because I want Watson and I don't think there's a GM who will do that. But it's not Why doesn't Bay in a clean swap? Because but there Rogers is want to play for them. He's

thirty six years old. Like, Okay, look if it were, they're not in the same conference, so they're not going to be uh sure, crossing each other's lines. I just think I just think Bryan Goudkuts got enough problems. Adding in twenty two sexual assault accusations is probably not something that he wants to bring on himself. Let's turn our attention to a more, much more interesting team, the Indianapolis Colts.

There was a change of offensive coordinator quarterbacks coach. Last year's quarterbacks coach Marcus eber Flos is now taking over for Nick Serrani, who got the Eagles job. But Frank Wright is the mastermind of this offense and likely very little changes schematically. Last year, the Colts were a slightly run heavy team, finishing ninth and run percentage, and why not their best Their best skilled position player is Jonathan Taylor,

so let's start with him. After a quiet first ten games last year, Taylor went on an epic league winning run from weeks UH eleven four award. His average line in those games from week eleven forward twenty carries, one seventeen yards, five point nine yards per carry, and one point one touchdowns per game. About yeah, that is That

is rock star territory for Jonathan Taylor. They also won five of those seven games, which I mentioned because I think it's really important because when you win five of seven by and you gave the ball to Jonathan Taylor twenty times, that creates a mandate for this year to

keep giving the ball to Jonathan Taylor. Um Frank Reich, however, has a long history of running back by committee, and I'm not totally sold that Taylor is gonna be twenty carries every game, or even just the work horse back every game, because Reich's got that long history of not not going that way. And we still got Nahim Hines, Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and everybody listening knows those guys hop up for big games with disturbing regularity and you

can't see them coming. So I still think there's just a little bit of danger with Jonathan Taylor that people aren't really thinking about at his current ADP, which is the middle of the first round, so people are taking the leap taking him over and uh and certainly zeke and uh um and I would do actually I think I would as well. But there is inherent risk, like you're saying, because of this Frank Rake situation. His current ADP is running back eight, going mid to late round one,

and you know, it does make sense. I don't have a problem with him going there, but man, I just did again. You know, if you're if it's picked, I still want I want to work course back there. I don't want to. I'm just I'm nervous about the possible time share, because that's who Frank Reik span. All right, let's go to the passing game. Carson Wentz prime for a bounce back season. I think he's an excellent candidate

to win Comeback Player of the Year. He will play behind a better offensive line than Philly's always injured version. Wentz handled pressure badly last year and made a lot of bad decisions under pressure where he looked terrible. His swagger was completely shot. He you know, everything unraveled badly. The offensive line is better, although Anthony Costanzo retired and they brought in Eric Fisher to fill in for him. That should be okay. But Profitball Focus ranks the Colts

offensive line is number two in the NFL. So Wentz is going to have time to set up and that part is encouraging and also encouraging the fact that he's reunited with Frank Reich, who was in Philadelphia for once his best years. He's got good receivers, he's got capable tight ends, he's got past catching backs. He's an ideal second quarterback for your roster with quarterback one upside. His ADP right now is quarterback twenty in the round. UM this year. Quarterback is so deep and I think has

ever been. I think it is the deepest it's ever been. Let's talk about the wide receivers. I'm just done on t Y Hilton and apparently you are too, because his his his ADP has slumped down to a wide receiver fifty one Brian, that's round eleven UM. Last year he led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns and nobody wants to touch him. I'm still all those numbers I mentioned your targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns.

He led the team, but he only had fifty six catches for seven hundred fifty yards and five touchdowns because he was so cheap weekend in week out, draft kings, draftings, and he burned me weekend and week I could not help myself. I'm like, okay, I gotta keep going back to the well because if I don't, I know he's but he never did. He had one good game that I can recall. He finished his wide receiver forty one last year, and so is adp s wide receiver fifty one.

That's actually probably makes sense for where t Y Hilton is in his career arc right now because of the return of uh Paris Campbell. Yeah, alright, let's talk about Paris Cambel who made you jump ahead? And okay, that's fine. I love Paris Campbell, and I'm like the only guy that I'm with you, Me, you, Sigmund Bloom, I think are the only three that like him. Uh, he's a wild card, and you think he'll open the season as

the slot receiver. He was a second round draft pick three years ago, and it's been hobbled by a crazy series of injuries, none of which I think are really that reflective of who he is, and a lot of them are just odd ball injuries, and I just I want to believe that he's He's ultimately going to make good on the remarkable athleticism he showed that led him to being his second round pick. He's at the Byron

Buckston in the NFL. Yeah, that might be well. Buckston has proven more then Paris Campbell has barely been on the field long enough to prove anything. But man, the upside is there. And last pick your draft can sitter Paris Campbell. I like it. Michael Pittman is the future, though, and he's going to lead the team in all categories. I believe this year. From Week eight forward. Last year, he got targeted at least five times in six of

the final nine games. He caught at least two balls in every game, was on the field for of the snaps, which I loved. His current ADP for Michael Pittman is the ninth round as wide receiver, thirty nine. That's whatever twelve spots ahead of t Y Hilton. I think that's right, Yeah, definitely, I'm really intrigued by what he can do in year two. T Y Hilton clearly the third receiver you'd want on this team, and like a distant thirds Campbell as well.

You think, okay, all right, well you're not like camb a lot more than everybody else. People listening right now are based on airp if we're baking in a DP without a doubt, But don't touch t Y wild Also, I'm not touching the tight ends um, even though Carson Wentz grew up feeding Philadelphia's tight ends. You've got Jack Doyle and mo Ali Cox and they're gonna split time just like last year. And no, it's not exactly a

Zack Lee Um. Neither one put up even remotely startable fantasy numbers and we're utterly unpredictable last year, so we're not gonna even We're not gonna go there. The riskiest player at his current a DP. It's it's hard to find risk because there's only one player. Get this, and the entire Cults roster. One player is going before round nine, Jonathan t So, I mean that's you know, it's the only guy I can even list for riskiest at current ADP and as I said earlier, his dangers are entirely

volume related, not talent related. The player with the most upside compared to current ADP here tons of options because everybody's going every else is going round nine or later. Um, I think it's Michael Pittman, who I said it's gonna lead the team and all the receiving categories and going off the board at receiver thirty nine gives you ninth round.

You know you've got a lot of upside. I love the the idea of targeting Pittman and Campbell and best Ball how cheap can get them and ozz are you're gonna get the number one receiver for the cold in any given game, in any given I like that angle. That's a that's a nice one now and and you know, when you actually got to set your lineup, that's a little more of a headaches. But best Ball, don't worry

about it. When we come back, we will talk through the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Titans influx with a sudden injection of Julio Jones into their lineup, Jacksonville influx across the entire offense. So we'll tell you about those two teams when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly, Segment number two. Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Chiarchi and Brian Johnson with you. We already broke down Houston and Indianapolis. As we continue going through the a f C South,

let's turn our attention to the Tennessee Titans. Brian, and you know, the lead story is Julio Jones, but you know the lead player is still going to be Derrick Henry. It's certainly gonna be Derrick Henry. Tennessee ran the ball more than fifty percent of the time last year. It was the third highest clip in the NFL. All means they ran the ball the most among all teams under fifty percent of the time. And that that's not that's but that's not a necessarily a balanced offense, not in

today's NFL. That's not, in today's NFL a very effective offense. Though. They were fourth in yards per game, fourth and points per game. But uh, like you said, it all revolved around Derrick Henry. We're all too familiar with Derrick Henry in the run game. Uh, Henry still a beast pretty much in the prime of his career. Titans are returning what is a pretty good offensive line, ranked fourteenth by

Pro Football Focus going into this season. UH finished sixth in their run blocking grading system last year, but in past blocking UM that's probably because left tackle Taylor lu Ann Louanne or Loui lu Luwan only played nine snaps. He missed a good chunk of the season, so Tannehill was missing his blindside protection. UM. The only really but back to King Henry, the only real concern is will they lightened his load after totaling six hundred and eighty

one carries over the last two years. I know that's that part. That is a that's a real concern, and honestly, they probably should. New offensive coordinator Todd Downing would be wise, in my opinion, to dial it back at least a little bit. But when they dial that back, what do they die in link up? The assumption is Julio Jones. One would think now that Julio Jones isn't toe UM, so that Ryan Tannehill's stock has gone way up since that. And by the way, Tannehill the six the most passing

touchdowns last year with thirty three. Uh, he finished eighteen in past attempts and that's good efficiency, right, very efficient. He also had seven rushing touchdowns too. I didn't realize he had that many rushing touchdowns that I knew you'd have like three, four, maybe five, But he had seven, so forty total touchdowns last year. And his price tag reflects it right now currently QB twelve, which is quite

the honor in these days. Is he said quarterback is ridiculously deep, so it to be a top soll have quarterback. That's really saying something. And again it's it's all about the wide receiver room now with A J. Brown, Julio Jones of course, and uh, Josh Reynolds. I guess who was who was something before the h the Julio acquisition, But um, sticking with the wide receivers, A J. Brown is my riskiest guy based on ADP for the Titans um eleven touchdowns last year over a thousand yards, only

a hundred and two targets. Of course, Corey Davis was there, but he's gone replaced by Julio Jones. Johnny Smith was there, he's gone. Really only one tight end Anthony Firkster and very popular sleeper for for sir, no tea oh firk, sir, thank you sir. But um, everyone before Julio was acquired was like a J. Brown a lock for a hundred and fifty tarrogets plus easily after only getting barely over a hundred last year. That changed drastically when Julio came

to town. So what if a J. Brown doesn't see a huge upticking targets? What if Tennessee continues to be run heavy, which there's the reason they really shouldn't improved defense and uh even you know, more weapons to take the pressure off at Derrick Henry. So the fact that a J. Brown is going off the board at wide receiver eight and he m he's just not a true

alpha yet, especially with he is. He has the making he is, but I don't know if he's gonna see more targets with Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Terry McLaurin. Guys going after a J. Brown, You don't get me wrong, Like Dynasty wise, a J. Brown wide receiver one, no concerns, but just specifically speaking, I would take him at wide receiver bride receiver eight to me, is a value for for a j Brown. That's how much I like him.

I think Julio is let's talk Julio for a minute. Alright, So last year's wide receiver eighteen right eighteen and that's almost exactly right, right, Um, Julio, if he had stayed with the Falcons, would be boring for frustrating, injured oft injured. Uh. There's a litany of owners that have had him the past few years that have sworn off Julio Jones because you know how many times you have to see him

as questionable. How many times are you fretting on Sunday morning whether Julio Jones is going to be playing today and will this play be his last play? And we're just, you know, fred up with that. But you put him in this change of scenery and all of a sudden he's fascinating and people are and people seem to have forgotten all of the frustrations that Julio Jones have Hall of Fame receiver. And don't get me wrong, when healthy

Julio Jones a freaking nightmare. But because he's broken down so much, I just I just think people are are are overly they're overly willing to look past Julio Jones as warts because he's got a fresh start in a new city. But those words aren't necessarily any different here than they were before. And Atlanta was as past happy as any team over the past three four five years, and now he goes to the team that's exact opposite. The volume should be down this year for Julio Jones.

I think the move. I think the move if anything hurts Julio Jones value. He was my second candidate for the biggest downside, and I should say a j. Brown doesn't have big downside. I could see him dropping to the wide receiver twelve fifteen range, but you're paying wide receiver eight that's the very premium price. I don't really like Julio Jones wide receiver eighteen either, for all the

reasons you just mentioned. They're they're both. They're both kind of risky because everyone they're like real shiny new teammate toys right now. But again, this could be all about Derrick Henry like it was the last couple of years. But I love Brown. I know I can't. There's it's tough to find rationally, so but I just I have him. Was wide receiver three. He was wide receiver one before the Julio Jones trade, and I've begrudgingly moved him down

too spots. It's really a four man fantasy team from Henry Jones and Brown and Dan Hill. So I went with a J. Brown. It was a tough those four all of my roster. But you mentioned Anthon Firkser. He is my highest upside player. People were his stock was going way up before the Julio signing. He was essentially uh the second wide receiver on that team over Josh Reynolds, and Firkser had some good games last year even when john who Smith was healthy, and when Johnny was out,

he was a primary target for Tanne Hill. So right now Ferkes are his tight end seven three And if something happens to a J. Brown Julio Jones, yeah, I've got first star at seventeen right now. Um, And and he was he was higher. I think I'm at fourteen before the Julio Jones trade. I still think he there's a lot there. And remember Todd Downing, the offensive coordinator, was the tight end. He knows, he knows what Fokster is all up. So a great backup dart throw tight

end but uh not as great as Dan Arnold. All right, let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars. What has changed? Everything has changed, coaches, all new coaches. Urban Meyer makes his NFL debut. The offensive coordinator is Darryl Bevel, which is nice because we do have a long book on Darryl Bevil. We know a lot, we know of what to expect. Bebel was a very run heavy coach when he was

offensive coordinator in Minnesota and at Seattle. But he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, two Hall of famers, yes first ballot probably well, Peterson for sure. For Man he probably will be too. Then Detroit brought in Bevil to be their offensive coordinator the past two years, and he

did not have an Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. And he had a terrible defense that was just giving up tons and tons of points and he did not have any longer the luxury of running as much, and Bevel ended up ranking over the past two years twenty nine and twenty in rushing play percentage, way down from when he used to be a top five guy with Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. So I think we're looking at the same thing with Bevil. He I think he wants

to run when he can. But the Jaguars defense is gonna be just as bad as the lines defensive, so you know, this may be a little bit more of a balanced offense under Darryl Bubble. The offensive lines is kind of a bumber. The Jaguars return all five starters, which I love continuity on the offensive line, but they finished twenty second. They ranked two for line play last year by Pro Football Focus, and I don't know you

bring all those guys back. They put the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson, who was ben Bait was a bad He's had a bad He was a first rounder who has had mostly an underwhelming career until last year. His mon his money year, and he played at like an average NFL level, and out of desperation, they tagged him because I think they didn't want to have to draft a left tackle and they had plenty of money, so why not just tag him and kick that can down the road one season on what you're gonna do

a left tackle? Nothing like a contract year to motivate you to average little status. Correct. Jackson will also drafted Walker Little in the second round this year. But he's a major project and may not start this season, so the offensive lines of Bomber, So just keep that in mind all other things we're gonna talk about. Let's talk Trevor Lawrence. He will be your Week one starter. Obviously. He is as pro ready as any rookie quarterback since Andrew luck The in Dynasty super Flex. He's the first

overall pick in rookie drafts in my opinion. And even if you don't need a quarterback and you can't trade it immediately, the pick you got that you can deal him later. You got that arrow in your quill, right, I like that. Most of you know a lot about Trevor Lawrence because he's performing on a highly visible stage for a long time. But just allow me to reiterate his remarkable abilities. Laser arm, incredible football i Q, terrific against the blitz and NFL level of pocket poise, better

wheels than people think. He can run in four or five, six, seven touchdowns this season. I think you know, ten years from now he's probably not gonna be a mobile quarterback, but especially here in these early days, he's got he's got wheels, and he can he can run something. Jacksonville had the highest passing play percentage last year. Again, all those coaches are gone, um and that was with Mike

Glennon Glennon Gardner, Minshew and Jake Lewton. So you know they were forced into passing by this terrible defense last season. They're going to see a lot of that. Lawrence is gonna throw a lot. Volume will be there, Talent is there. He's right now is a DPS Quarterback fifteen, which I think feels about right for Trevor Lawrence. People either sort of banking on him as a low end QB one or a high end backup basically range. Uh, let's go to the white outs. We'll talk about laviska channel in

a few minutes. DJ Chark is an all or nothing producer who's a deep downfield guy. He had that dynamite season two years ago, so three years ago, he did nothing as a rookie. Two years ago, explodes on the scene a hundred or thousand yards and came out of nowhere. He had like a one hundred yard rookie or and put out a thousand yard sophomores season. And then last year, Nah, he scored just twice after Week four only managed seven

hundred yards. He was he was ding up all year long after he was Now he gets a big, armed, accurate quarterback, and I think Chark is going to be a fascinating guy with some serious upside because of the deep connection he can have with Trevor Lawrence. His ADP right now, his wide receiver twenty eight. That's round seven. He's the first receiver taken among the Jaguars by you

fantasy drafters. Marvin Jones has been a steady fantasy producer, but his talent levels clearly behind Chark and Channel, and I worried that he's gonna have some invisible games, which has always been a problem for him in both Detroit and Cincinnati earlier in his career. Now, in fairness, Marvin Jones always lives up to his ADP, in fact surpasses his ADP. Nobody ever wants to draft him, and then you got him on your team and he's like almost every week starter and more often than not, you get

something from him. So right now is ADP is the twelfth round. I think he's receiver seventy one. I didn't write down, but as I recall, I think he was receiver seventy one off the board. That seems pretty good from Rvin Jones. I'll buy all day at that range. For sure. We're not even gonna talk about tight ends, including Tim Tebow because in my estimation, they don't have any running backs. Tim Tebow is going to score the first touchdown of the year for the Jaguars. I'm putting

it on wax right now. I love it. I want to see the problem. Love it, kevn't. It's gonna be but BS two. It's not even gonna be like a you know, like run it in. It'll light end past battern. It's yeah, it's gonna be some subject. It'll be like some jet sweep to the tight end. Yeah. Uh, James, we're gonna We're gonna circle back to James Robinson in a minute. Let me let's talk Trevis e t n

amazing burst, so many big highlight players in college. Shockingly strong, breaks tackles, elusive, good receiver, but probably not a workhorse back. His last twenty carry game was in went to eighteen for Travis e TN. Was he in high school but almost Um. The worry is that he's going to fall into this eight touch game, ten touch game. Twelve touch game and it's gonna be hard to get fantasy value out of that. He's gonna be like Reggie Bush. That's yes,

that's a great comparison. Reggie Bush was never an ongoing fantasy factor, reliable fantasy factor because he just didn't get the ball enough. Um. But that's enough too, seriously, Mescal, James Robinson, we'll talk about a minute now. Maybe we're wrong. And if if ETN could get into the fourteen, sixteen, even eighteen will be great touch territory. Etn could be a star because he's so talented and he could reward

his owners. If you think he's going to get up to that level, he really needs to be active in the passing game weekend in week out, four or five catches consistently to really live up to his ADP to get like Reggie Bush needed that because the Carrs weren't always there for Reggie Bush. That's such a good comparison. I haven't heard anybody else make that, and that's a great one. Let's talk about the riskiest player at his current ADP, and it's James Robinson running back twenty two

round four. Uh. He was found money last year, but I don't see a repeat happening. Teams who love their running back and have a need at like every other position, like the Jaguars do, don't spend a first round pick on a running back. E t N is going to factor in enough to chisel away serious value from James Robinson. Now, nobody expects Robinson to account for eight six percent of the team's rushing attempts again like he did last year.

And if you recall, like through something like we twelve, he had all but two of the carries for the team and it was only the very end of the year when a few other people got in and got some carries. Um. But the question is how far down is he gonna go? How far James Robinson is gonna get less work? But how much less work is it going to be? I think it's gonna be a significant amount because E t N is about a grillion time times better than James Robinson. Grillian Grilli a lot grilling. Wait, no,

isn't hit hold on, it's nine times. That's how much a Grillian is. A grillion is nine times better than James Robinson. UM. One other X factor that I haven't heard anybody say about James Robinson. This all new coaching staff has no allegiance to James Robinson. They didn't pick him. They spent their first round pick and their second pick. Urban Meyer spent his second ever NFL pick on Travis E. T N. You know, no a lot, no allegiance to James Robinson. Best man can just win that job. And

if the best man wins that job, it's not James Robinson. Well, well, last I checked, they were basically right next to each other in ADP, So gun to head, you gotta gotta have one around or I'm pretty sure that's where they're at. Who do you want most formats? I'm taking Travis E. T N now in a guillotine league format where I

I don't I don't want to sweat week one. You know, rookies are always a way more dangerous there, and I don't know if Travis E. T N is as much of a factor in week one as he will be in November and December when he's learned all the nuances of being a third down back pass catching, the route running and all the things that will go into that good point player with the most upside compared to current ADP not close Lavishka Channel current ADP is the tenth

round wide receiver forty four. He is the best receiver on the Jaguars, terrific down the stretch last year. Wow, would everybody in mini camp is this past month, Channel

looks ready to explode With Trevor Lawrence. You may have forgotten unless you heard us talking about sophomore receivers a couple of weeks ago on Fantasy Football Weekly that he scored four times in the final five weeks of last year, and from week twelve forward he was wide receiver twenty two chel catching passes from Jake Lewton and Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon, and he was why do you see her twenty two and he's going up the ports? Why do you see her forty four right now? And now

he's luten free. He's luten free. I did forget that. Thank you for him healing Cole now with the Jets stole a lot of his work from the slot last year. He's gone so and he leaves behind four snaps from the slot for Laviska Channel. He has top twelve upside Channel does if they decide to focus that passing game on his freakish athletic ability, and you know they're gonna try to give him a couple of carries per game most weeks and uh and he returns kicks to those

don't always produce points, but sometimes they do. It's a nice something. It's nice to have that option. Chanel's got I'm i'm I love him as to I'll produce his wide receiver for ADP Channel's Fascinating Player. Next week, we wrap up the a f C with the trip through the a f C West Brian. That means, um we get to talk about my favorite dark horse team to make the Super Bowl from the a f C, the

Los Angeles Chargers. H that is where I'm at. If I'm making a bit odds implied, of course, and I would, I would parlay it with air Bear Justin Herbert for m v PNP because if that happens, air Bear is gonna have an m v P type season and he certainly is capable. Yeah. Now I look forward to that. They got to get through their own division in the Chiefs, which is no small task, but anything happens to Patrick

Mahomes and that helps pave the way. And you know, if you think back to week two, and I probably shouldn't put so much stock in this one game. It's five minutes before kickoff of week two to Rod Taylor gets the misinjection from his uh from from his coach and gets a collapsed along or whatever it was. It was basically like John Travolta giving um and um and here comes here. They are facing the Chiefs and Patrick mahomes and justin air Bear comes in cold and nearly

beats the Chiefs in that game. It's um. It's only one game, small sample size. And remember the Chargers, by the way, they won their final four or five games of last year, and and there were seven win team and their head coach costs them at least two or three wins by himself, Anthony Lynn, and he's gone. So there's a there's a lot to like for those Chargers. That's gonna be a fun division West. It almost always is.

We'll break that down next Weekly. Thanks you, thank you for listening all the way to the end of a thirty nine ishue minute podcast, and we will talk to you next week. Everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I Heart Radio. For more podcast from my Heart Radio, visit the i heart radio, app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.