AFC East projections for 2021

these days Matt d or Scott Fish. Yeah, Scott's already has already called out a future show that he intends to be on. We are breaking down all eight divisions over the next eight weeks, fantasy style, looking forward, not backwards.

You already know what happened last year. We're gonna call all of the offseason moves and just tell you how we project each team's offense performing and specifically who for every team, who is the riskiest player at current ADP and who is the player with the most upside at his current d ADP. We'll do that for every team, and Fish has already called out NFC East Sylvia for that. Hopefully Matt will be joining us for a future show as well. No one wants to call out the a

f C East. That's what we have right here, but it's getting more exciting. The a f C East has always been like notoriously almost boring from a fantasy perspective over the last ten years. It has because you know, the Jets didn't even count, the Dolphins didn't count, can't

count most years now. Look and even the Patriots outside of you know that Randy Moss year was fun back in oh seven, pretty was gronk, you know, Okay, but like Garrett Blonde had that fifteen touchdown season like three years ago, there was always like two guys though it was never like the whole offense blew up. Really anyway, let's begin with the FC East and the Miami Dolphins. Brian, let's sell. Let's get an overview of the season. Head coach Brian Flores makes his return and I believe it's

his third year at least third years head coach. But now there are not one, but two new offensive coordinators. They have co coordinators Eric uh Studesville, who is the running back coach, and George Godzi, who was the tight end coach for Miami last year. Will uh tag team the offensive coordinator uh duties for the Dolphins who last year, well,

it was really a tale of two quarterbacks, right. They started with Brian Fitzpatrick and then they pivoted to To which we weren't too keen on that move at the time, and the offense suffered as a result. Really uh. They finished the Dolphins in twenty three yards per game with nine in points per game. Not awful, uh points per game, but really once to it took over. The rookie struggles were evident with him and that that offense just took it kind of went on a downward spiral. But they

were pretty balanced. They passed the ball percent of the time that was uh in the league, so nineteen as in you know, fewest pass attempts per game, passing played percentage and uh, and they ran the ball forty two percent of the time, which ranked fourteenth. So kind of a balance offense and kind of what I'm expecting this year.

Um that the big names that people are drafting on Miami starting with the highest ADP Miles Gaskin, will full Order, Mike CASSICKI, DeVante Parker, Jalen Waddle, and then then the aforementioned to um. Uh yeah, it's I like the receivers. I like the receivers as a whole. But pick if I said, Brian, tell me right now which receiver is going to lead the team in fantasy points. It's hard to It's hard to say that authoritatively. Yeah, it definitely is.

And uh And for that reason, Will Fuller my riskiest player on the Dolphins based on ADP. He's right around wide receiver thirty three right now, going before guys who I think I like a lot more than Will Fuller and Deebo Samuel, Jerry Judy, even former teammate Brandon Cooks, despite the quarterback situation. I like the volume that Cooks

is going to see in Houston. Uh, Curtis Samuel, even going after Will Fuller, only seventy vacated targets from Miami from last year, and the most notable departure is Isaiah Ford, which is not notable. So it's a very crowded wide receiver room now with Fuller into they drafted Jalen Waddle. Davante Parker's still there, very good wide receiver. So you have three good receivers and a total unknown a quarterback. We both agree to a looked pedestrian last year. Now

Here's what worries me, not will you get better? Hear too, almost certainly. But what worries me most Brian is too didn't show me the sparks of greatness. You know, I I don't need everybody to have the Justin Herbert record setting rookie year. But when you are a first round quarterback, who um who was he picked five overall? I expect sometimes for your passing to splash off the page, even in completions. I mean, just things that that make me go, oh,

there's some special talent in that arm. I just didn't see it. And you could take this either way good or bad. He to essentially admitted he wasn't ready last year. He didn't study up enough and he just the game was way too fast for him. That that can be alarming. That it also can be, you know, a wake up call. So what We'll see how it goes. But when it comes to, like you said, pegging the top wide receiver, who knows I'm taking the cheapest one, which is Devonte Parker.

He's going after Jalen Waddle and we even like they got Mike Asiki too, who's gonna soak up targets? Lynn Bowden Bowden. He's they want to get the ball in his hands. So I don't see a ton of volume for any of these receivers. So I'm out on Will Fuller at wide receiver thirty five winter. And you're buying on Davante Parker, Well, he's not the high upside. Okay, all right? Who is the highest upside? It's got gasking

Baby right now. RB getting way under drafted in my opinion, Like he's going after James Robinson, Travis E t N. I want no part of that. And in the draft best ball this year? Uh going after Kareem Hunt? Are you able? But even guys going way earlier Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery not liking them as much as I like Miles Gaskon, who didn't get a toner run last year, but when he did he looked really good. And he not only can run the ball, he can catch the ball.

He led all running backs in yards per reception nine and a half, and again only had like a hundred and forty carries, not even two hundred touches, but forty one catches and half the season's work, and and again about half the carries of a bell cow running back. He was fifteen in evaded tackles is good and I was holding my breath all throughout the draft, all throughout free agency period. He could drink. The one guy in the seventh round don't even know his name, not worried

about him. But Gaskin's got a clear role to starting running back duties for the Dolphins, and it or there's top fifteen running back potential and Gaskin, So I'm all in there. And there aren't many running backs. There's only probably ten work course running backs in the NFL and maybe not even ten. Uh, Gaskin shapes up to be one of them for as long as he's healthy. And that contributed to why we didn't see as much of Gaskin last year. It would have liked to. We need

to stay healthy. But that offense figures to be more dynamic this year too. It will get better and Gaskins should have more opportunity than he had last season. And I'm kind of with you on buying on ad for Miles Gaskin. Let's go to the Patriots. Brian Um. What a cluster this was last year. You already know that Um and the offseason quote improvements that they made, don't give me a lot of confidence that this is going to be a materially better offense. Now, Cam Newton was

historically feeble as a passer. Last year's starting fifteen games and throwing eight touchdowns, which is turned back the clock to nineteen thirties era passing. It was horrible. Um, it is unclear who the starting quarterback will be when the season opens, but it's not unclear in my mind who it will be by the time it ends. It'll be

Mac Jones. Now, Bill Belichick had to pivot and ended up throwing the ball the second fewest times in the NFL because Cam Newton was so bad as a passer and his receivers were so inept um And I just touched on the receiving aspect of the tape, Like I cannot get over the fact that the Titans got Julio Jones for a second round pick, which it is a great a great you for Atlanta, really, but know where you're going with this mohammed for a second round pick

by the Patriots. It's like really one of the worst trade anyway. Yeah, So that, knowing that the receivers are so bad, the teams splurged on wide receivers, but the moves they made I think are absurd. They're tied up thirty six million dollars in Nelson Aglar and Kendrick Borne, two players whose previous teams didn't even try to keep them. And I think from just a fantasy standpoint, Al is like a wide receiver four, and Born as like a

wide receiver five. Dark throw and that's it. And and if and if Cam Newton's the starter at the season, I don't know that I'm drafted. I don't know that I draft either one at any stage of the draft. No, I find someone else would be more interested in than probably easily the two best receivers on the team are both height ends. Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry both got fat contracts totaling eighties seven million dollars for players at

the same position. Optimists will hope for a return of the twenty eleven season of Brady to Gronk and Hernandez, when they total twenty two hundred yards and twenty four touchdowns. When I looked that up, I'm like, oh my god, I'd forgotten now potent that was. That is an insane level of tight end productivity. Yeah, um, and it gives you some of like a best case scenario. But the problem is Mac Jones isn't Tom Brady, and Jonny Smith and Hunter Henry aren't Gronk or Hernandez in part because

they're alive. So those guys are There's gonna be a ton of two tight end sets, and the problem for fantasy owners is going to be this. I think I don't think both guys are gonna get fed like Gronk and Hernandez both got fed in that one season in eleven. Instead, I think it's going to be in any given week, one of the two will probably have a good game, and good luck guessing which guy is coming. You know a lot of times, well, Hunter Henry is already hurt

by the way. That helps, And you know, I like Johnny Smith more. And we'll talk about this a minute. Um. Oftentimes on Fantasy Football Weekly, we will identify a good tight end matchup, will be like, hey this, you know this defense is really struggling in tight ends. They got slow linebackers. Whatever the problem is. Now, even if we identify a good matchup, it's gonna be very hard to tell you this is a john who Smith game versus

this is a Hunter Henry game. So I think that's going to be a an area of real frustration for fantasy owners. The running game is convoluted as always, and maybe even worse this year than most years. Damian Harris was quietly effective last season for the Patriots, the average five yards per carry, which I think is probably better than most listeners realize. Optimists would say that Jones will keep Cam Newton on the bench, which would mean that Harris can get the goal line work that went to

Newton last year. But the problem then, even if that happens, is the team drafted Remandra Stevenson in the fourth round and he's a bulldozer. He's built perfectly for goal line work. So Damian Harris as a big back who who could get goal line work, I can't tell you that Romandra Stevenson isn't gonna get that. Stevenson seems like he's going to be the guy we went into detail on him a few weeks ago. Yeah, I just you know, maybe

as a rookie he won't get a lot of time. Um, but if he does, if he's gonna get time anywhere, the goal line could be the spot because he's built so well for it. Uh. James White found note takers in free agency and ended up returning to the Patriots. He was incredibly ineffective last year with Cam Newton. You're hope and drafting James White is that Mac Jones will throw a bunch of underneath dump off stuff to a safe, close target in James White. But again, we don't know

who's going to start the season at this point. Just gross all around, so gross. Lastly, Sony Michelle is a cut candidate. I know he's got first round pedigree, but there's based on his his running over the past couple of seasons, there's a chance he's not even on the roster. Alright. Let's talk about the riskiest player at his current ADP. I think it's Hunter Henry. He's got a seventh round ADP.

He's tight end eight. I thought you're gonna say, all um, well, um, he's going four rounds earlier than John new Smith, who the team likes so much better they gave him a contract that's fifty percent higher than Hunter Henry's. People have this all backwards. John new Smith is the preferred tight end of the two. I'm with him. People are drafting him in the wrong order and separated by four rounds. You can get Jonas Smith in the eleventh round Bacon ADP.

That's a new brainer. The player with the most upside compared to his current ADP really nobody but um take Mac Jones basically undrafted, going off the board as quarterback thirty eight in round seventeen. He could start as early as Week one, and he's got a lot of dump off targets. As I mentioned James White, Johnna Smith, Hunter, Henry Underneath, there's some there's some dump off opportunities for him. Super flex leagues, you could go Mac Jones. Was Stevenson

in consideration for your upside player? He could just he might not see the field this year. I don't know. I just I you know, it's such a convoluted deep backfield. I worry, but I I thought Stevenson looked very good in college, and I like I like the upside that he brings. Quite content not having any Patriots on roster this year or next year. Let's take a break. When we come back, let's talk about the Jets and the Buffalo Bills. Both offenses could be better, even the Bills.

We'll talk about that when we come back. Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchia, Brian Johnson with you. We're breaking down the four teams of the a f C East Fantasy Style with previews of the season. And with now we go to the New York Jets, who can't be worse last year, they can only get better. Uh, new head coach and Robert Sala, the former San Francisco forty Niners defensive coordinator, and the new offensive coordinator Mike Lafleur,

also from San Francisco. Not the offensive coordinator though, or he wasn't the offensive coordinator, he was the passing coordinator was his official title. He couldn't handle the run and complicated today they really limited his scope to passing. But yeah, the Jets last year dead last in yards per game two and seventy nine points per game fifteen, just absolutely awful. For whatever reason, they actually leaned towards the run more they were and run played percentage and pass play percentage.

But it's a whole new era in in York right now, New Jersey, I should say, Uh, there's Joe Flacco. Is Joe Flacco still there? Well, hopefully we won't see Joe Flacco, won't see Sam Donald. It's the Zach Wilson Show now. And they invested a lot in rookies Elijah Moore at

wide receiver, running back, Michael Carter. It's it's it's essentially a brand new team and uh, but it feels like a team even though they ran more last year, it feels like they're gonna leaned towards the past more this year, investing in Zack Wilson, Elijah More, UH went out and signed Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder. I don't know what's gonna happen with Crowder. I think there's some good landing spots for him if they do decide to try to trade him.

But when the new offensive coordinator is a former passing coordinator had no say in the run run game, something tells me, Uh, they're gonna be throwing the ball more. And for that reason, I'm my riskiest player based on a DP is Michael Carter, who UH rookie running back. By the way, that the highest drafted Jet based on a DP right now, it kind of makes sense he made He'd be the Jed I'd want to have. He

does it at RB thirty seven. Um, he's he's lumped in with the David Johnson's, A J Dillon's Damien Harris. We just talked about James Conner. Uh, a running back I like a lot more than all those guys from the Bills, who will talk about very shortly. But Carter looks great, No tis as of right now. From what I've heard and the competition, it's not great, but there is competition in Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, who looked all right. Well, Michael Perrine looked all right. Still to me, I'm out

on Carter. The Jets did not run the ball well last year. Of course they were riding Frank Gore and Adam Gaze. I mean, it's just you're freed of the shackles of Adam Gaze. I just think everybody thinks that even last even the players are coming back from last year, will be better, that young offensive line is going to be better, and um, and well, I don't and I certainly wouldn't want to invest in the passing game with a new rookie quarterback making his first start. Probably don't

want to, um, but I'm willing to. I'm willing to roll the dice on on a running back who flashed last year. That line's gotta get a lot better, though, you know we we say it all the time. You can love the running back as much as you want, but if if the hogs in front of them aren't moving, the moving the pile. And last year was a big problem for the Jets. Later ranked thirty. Their offensive line

was overalled by Pro Football Focus. UH. Their running backs average just one point one yards per carry before contact. Pertempt that in the NFL. Very bad, but they did. Uh. The Jets did trade up UH and drafted Elijah Vera Tucker with the fourteenth overall pick. So hopefully the line in the last year. So I think the line does get better. I do too, but I'm still I think people maybe Michael Carter, I'm not seeing more than a hundred and fifty, hundred and seventy five carry. I think

he's in the two fifty right. He feels real. Keyshawn Vaughny to me right now from last year where people were overreacting to Keyshawn Vaughn saying he's gonna be the guy. Nobody thought Van was as talented as Carter was. VA was going wait first round and rookie drafts this time last year. Yeah, that kills, but anyway we can disagree there, yeah, we will. There is upside with Carter, but I want to I just want to see what he's got first,

and just what the whole teams in general. I think they're gonna be behind a lot and throwing more than running. But anyway, that's my downside guy, the upside guy. We're banking on Jamison Crowder leaving town. Right at least I am. I feel like at this point, I don't know. I'm not gonna You can feel free to say that I am so as of right now. And while Crowder was still a Jet, you can get Elijah more way on

the cheap. But if Crowder leaves town, Elijah more is the wide receiver I want for the Jets, especially considering he's going. I don't know why Corey Davis is the first wide receiver going off the board by the way, white receiver Party nine. It should be Denzel Mims, whose wide receiver fifth nine, and then More is down to wide receiver sixties seven. But I'll take the cheapest jet basically, and uh, I don't blame you for that approach. And if I'm gonna invest in the jet, I'm gonna do

it at the cheapest rate possible. And uh, we've touted more over the past couple of months when we were analyzing rookies. Loved the dog piss celebration. One of the greatest things I've ever seen. But as an actual football player, uh, elite level talent. And I know it's a new offense with a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator slash passing coordinator, but Crowder was the guy last year and more just feels like the safest wide receiver and

based on ADP he's all going. Elijah more Man. The the O t A reports on him are very positive. And uh, again, Crowder's got to leave town. But uh, if he does, and I expect he does, so, I'm maybe it should just by Crowder, you know, well he would he would have been he would have been the well yeah, well that's a almost a whole another topic, right, But if Crowder stays on the Jets, he would be

my highest upside play easily. Let's pivot to the Buffalo Bills, our fourth and final team, as we break down the one projections for the nfc A f C East. You already know that Josh Allen took a massive step forward last year. The Bill's offense is crafted almost entirely around his unique abilities, and they are unique. Buffalo average thirty points per game double with the Jets just did as

you mentioned, fifteen per game. Josh Allen would have been the most prevalent quarterback on Championship one quarterback rosters last year, or even two quarterbacks, just based on where you got him, and he took a huge step forward. UM, there's little reason to think this year will be any different for Josh Allen. He will probably be every bit as effective and maybe more. Allen through the sixth most passes and had the second most quarterback rushes, which combined to give

him the second most plays of all quarterbacks. There's nothing like opportunity in fantasy football. More than talent. Your players need opportunity. We're going to touch up talk a touch touch on this very subject. In a few minutes. Alan had so much opportunity touching the ball second most plays of all quarterbacks. UM. I'll note that this as well. Mitch true Whisky is his backup and I like it.

I like it when a mobile quarterback has another mobile quarterback behind him because you don't have to recraft the offense. Nothing needs to change. They can still run most of the same plays. It won't be as effective. I'm not saying that Mitch Drubisky there he is. That's the extended version hold on. I am not saying sad Trombone Sky is as good as Josh Allen. But I do like the notion that they have a high end backup quarterback, so that if you do draft a Steffon Diggs, remember

this passing game. Um, you're not. You know, you still have some confidence knowing that if anything happens Josh Allen, you have plausible quarterbacking with that most generous my life from compared to most backups. Mr Beski is pretty good. All right. Stepan Dix was the team's work course last year. You already know that led the NFL and receptions lead in yards. He returns as the alpha receiver and could replicate all that success from last year and maybe and

probably even improve on last year's modest eight touchdowns. Now for the rest of the receivers, they lost John Brown, they brought in Emmanuel Sanders. Apparently they decided to go with Sanders reliability as opposed to Brown speed. But the big question mark and the fascinating player out of this group to me is Gabriel Davis. We talked about him a bit last week. Does he make the big jump in productivity in this his second year? Why he might?

Last year? From weeks twelve to seventeen. Last year, six weeks he averaged three catches, fifty four yards and almost a touchdown per game. That was good enough to be wide receiver thirty in that final third of the season. Last year, he did disappear in the playoffs, But and I was a rookie, maybe it hit the wall or whatever. Um So I like Gabriel Davis to make him move forward. And he's being vastly under drafted. I believe we talked about it last week. I think he's a great guy

to target for a second year jump. And I as much as as much as as Diggs deserves every one of the passes he got last year, I don't think they want Stefan Diggs necessarily lead the NFL in targets and receptions. I think they would like to even that out a little bit in Gabriel Davis would be the guy they would do it with no tight end of note here, Dawson Knox comes back. They had a Jacob Holister.

Don't care. Let's go to the running backs. And by the way, Gabriel Davis one less touchdowns last how about that they just had seven digs at eight So yeah, ton of ups ei, there a ton of upside. Uh. Zack mosson Devin Singletary simply didn't get enough work to be reliable fantasy factors last year. Get this, they averaged eight carries and nine carries per game. That's it. But again, Zack Moss very slow start to the year, injured, yep,

we'll talk more about him in justice. I need, I need to feel good about Zack Moss because I'm gonna rise Zack mosson Miles gask into the promised landlist year in our Empire League. I need it. That is a do the opposite approach that I that I endorse. Singletary is a known commodity as in my mind, a barely adequate runner with decent hands. And that's all Singletary brings to the game. So very blocked yep. Um he does not score really ever, So Singletary doesn't help fantasy owners there.

And I think there's a scenario here. We'll talk about it. In a second. As for Moss, he enters his second year plenty of room to improve. So let's talk about the riskiest player at his current ADP. Stefon Diggs is going off the board at wide receiver three. Now, Diggs is great, um, but he's coming off a career year in which the team couldn't get any production from any running back and there couldn't get any production from any

receiver except him. I feel like in many ways he's just gotten nowhere to go but down in terms of total usage for Diggs UM. And as I mentioned, Gabriel Davis could improve significantly and siphon off a lot of work from Diggs. And just why do you receiver three is just so high? I think he's the riskiest of the Bills that you could select. And then uh, Cole Beasley was significantly dinged for at least a quarter of the season at the tail end of the season last year.

And not that we like Emmanuel Sanders really, but he is in town and he's there. Basically, even if he's just a chain mover, he could siphon off more targets than John Brown did. It was never healthy, and so there there is UM. I just I am by no means predicting a bad season for Stefan Diggs, But why receiver three is really saying you think he's going to do what he did last year was he finished his roughly wide receiver five most leagues and get even better

this year. And you're you're paying. You're paying the premium this year, paying the premium. The last year was the time to get in on that. You should have bought the dip last year. Don't buy that rip this year. I'm with you. The player with the most upside compared to his current ADP is Zack Moss Round nine ADP wide receiver forty. He is a year two runner who was hamstrung last year by injury, a lack of touches. Just the eight carries program which I mentioned earlier, and

Josh Allen's remarkable eleven carries from inside the five. Most quarterbacks, even the rushing quarterbacks. At some point they start dialing that back and if Zack Moss, who is a big body back, if he can prove himself effective at the goal line early in the season, I could see Josh Allen dropping from eleven carries inside the five down to six five carries inside the five because Zach Moss can do it, and that's some pounding they could take off

their quarterback. Alan's a big dude, But those hits you don't want. We saw Cam Newton taking those hits early on in his career and uh, and eventually they took that away from him. They did until Belichick brought it back last year. Now, Um, the other factor here is

that single Tarry is just not that good. So there's a real chance here that Singletary becomes an afterthought in this offense, and Zach Moss, if he's good enough, ends up getting eight carries a game that could go to fifteen carries, sixteen carries, seventeen carries a game, and he could really be a true lead back and Singletary could just be changing a base guy catching three or four passes a game, running the ball three or four times a game, and the rest of the rush is going

to Zack Moss. So I believe he's got the most upside. Now, you know, we need things to happen for all that to come to fruition, including Zack Moss needs to play better. Um, but they could work out that way. Yeah, Zack Moss is going to be a guy that's always gonna be moved over into my queue once we hit like round seven eight in any format. Really like, yeah, I got even though you already invested in Zack Moss in in

Dynasty and Empire leagues, you want more Zack Moss. Yeah, RB forty right now, Like you said, it feels low easy, top twenty four running back potential in that offense. Now, I was the leader of the Zack Moss cheerleading squad last year and that blew up in my face. But you know that. But at ADP forty. You know, last year you had to pay a DP twenty five to get Zack Moss or ADP thirty to pay his Zac Moss. Now you get him at a big discount after a

disappointing rookie season. He didn't suck. He doesn't suck his football. He does right, So there's that. Uh. Thank you for listening to Fantasy Football Weekly. We encourage you to subscribe and also check out our sister podcast, Chop. The gayante League podcast and Gaytea Leagues are now open and available at gayteing Leagues dot com. We encourage you to listen to that as well. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll be

back next week for the a f C North. Will be breaking down the a f C North next next week, including my disdain and nervousness for the Steelers offense. It's coming next week. Stay tuned for that. Everybody, talk to you then bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production of I heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio, visit the i heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.