March 4th, Hour 2: Shirt comparison, more mid-tier starting pitching, and more...

listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Did we just become best friends? Young Fantasy best friends forever? That was weird? Back with you the Fantasy Bests Forever, Fantasy Sports Radio Network. You don't think we're doing a great job? Was it a pretty good job? I mean it's probably because you have some scruff, you know, That's what it is. That's why you're doing a great job. It's like the nicest you've been to me in months. Yes, because the knock coincidental.

Once that goes, I mean, I'm gonna find something to bash you about. You very dipper today. Greg. You have a little roll up action going on with your sweater. Nice button down. I know, like this this is one of my favorite shirts. Actually, that's my favorite sweater wear that like a T shirt under here and that a lot. They fit very well. I would like to buy more, but they're just like really expense its republic sale republic like the polar stuff. We're pretty similar shirts. Yea, we

look good. One might say we both look like picnic tables. I always is it weird? I have a shirt like this and a shirt very similar to this. I always say it looks like Eastern when I wear them. Okay, yeah, I can see this, see that, especially this too. It's like per bowl. It's like, yeah, a pastel. That's the term that they use, like these bright springy type colors. Speaking of spring, a snow on the ground, Greg, how

about that? Oh god, the boots are packed. Had to be back to us, had to be back the male lugs the mugs wrong, I didn't even notice. Still right now, I would have started off the show bashing you instead I had I had the scruff though, you know someone, I'm like a walking ad for Polo today. Actually, yeah, didn't have a Polo boots. Polo boots. You are un jeans? No, not jeans, sorry, Greg, I mean we're best friends. Don't

have to wear the same exact things. Well, I'm not gonna wear mugs, I'll tell you that much right now. That's a steak by you. Do you want to try them on after the show? Trying stinky male ugg boots, stinky, very comfortable try? How was that was your combine show last week with venture? Jim Day? Was good? Are you getting h You know something that I contemplated texting someone today and I didn't. I don't know why. I probably just forgot. What else is new? Right, Frank forgetting to

text someone? Um? This whole like NFL Combine Twitter, it's bad, like all the oh DK Metcalf, Oh he's gonna be the Nick Tuleo Jones projections. Did you see him in a cone? The three cone drills? Worse than Tom Brady? Oh my god? Like stuff is crazy. I will say, someone like the defensive linemen who were wearing like sub four fivelous what's ridiculous? So it's funny. I did see a tweet today, Umm, espn Jude's ran on who was saying, yeah, like you saw it doing Hassan's in the forty, which

is bad. But like the most important thing is the giants like their meeting with him, and that's all that matters. What was Daniel Jones is forty, Greg, that's the next quarterback, the next quarterback of the New York Giants are the Giants, and that's gonna make a trade here? Come on, Greg, I don't think so. And the Giants will sat I mean they don't ever, Like when was the last time

they moved up? I know, like they never did it with them and now that so they never traded down with Reese, not in the first round, but they did trade up. They traded up for Landing Collins. Actually that's correctly, just let walk away. They're not gonna bring him back now. One's like they're deadline to franchise tag him this week. There right a few bodies of mine, you know them, Robin. They're big Giants fans, also big Landing Collins fans, of course,

So if he leaves, very bad. So basically I wanted to say that his worst nightmare would be Landing Collins in a Cowboys uniform, which might happen because they need a safety. Greg. This is a disaster. I'm sorry that I opened up that possibility for you. So what's gonna ultimately, what's gonna happen is the Giants, and rightfully so, they want a franchise tag him because he's hurt. They don't want to make him one of the highest pace safeties

in football. He wants to be one of the highest pace safeties in football, so they says his franchise tag him. In a act of anger, he cleaned out his locker and think he used to get franch franchise tag and said this and showing up you franchise to I mean, I'm not showing up to September and the Giants have been like, yeah, we don't want to deal people that don't want to be here. I think you watch Giants Kings closer than I did last year. How did he perform?

I feel like I didn't hear his name much. Listen. I mean, he wasn't as good as he was in his All Pro year the year before. But he's the leader of the captain of the defense, and he's good. I mean, he's as good as any player the helle on the defense, which isn't much. All right, Well, sorry, Bud, Hopefully he doesn't end up in Dallas, Cowboy. How about them? Gabo Baseball, Greg Lesball, Do you do you want to say anything else? On Paxton before you get to tie on,

come on to hear more in taie On as well. Um, No, look the I think the home run stuff scares me a little bit. The hard hit rate was very high last year for Paxton as well. It was just kind of a weird season, like pitched with three seventh six ear right, two hundred eight strikeouts and only underd and sixty and a third. It's pitched like that's phenomenal. If this guy could go one on eighty. I mean you're looking at like two twenty strikeouts from James Paxson, so

I get that upside. I drafted him in the fourth round of the Great Fantasy based Invitationals, that is, in a fifteen team draft. I could let you know some pictures that I took him over. I took James Paxson and and then the next two picks in this draft were Stephen Stratford and jameson Tyon. Um. I will say if Clevinger was there, might have made the decision a

little bit more difficult. Have those guys ranked back to back with with Paxiston and Clevinger, But I do have Paxson rank once about higher, so I like I like him in this range. Do you ever lean toward the

do you ever lean toward the National League? What are saying, hey, thailands here obviously passion, you know, there's there's not really there was Actually I know there was members that came out last year around this time when we were talking about Garrett Cole Grant when everyone was saying, oh, well

Garrett Cole going from Pittsburgh to Houston. Um, you know, it's much tougher in the A L. And I believe it was Todd Zola who tweeted out the differences between E R A in leading has like it's not a thing anymore, Like it's actually very imparable. Ear ras between National League pitchers and American League pictures. Well maybe, you know, maybe there's just better pictures in the American League. I

don't know if that's necessarily the case. I think like there's really good pictures on both sides because obviously Sergers in the National League and de Groms in the National League. So um, yeah, the e rais and both leagues are actually quite comparable. So I don't think the A L versael thing is uh is much of a myth. I will I will say, you know, regarding Paxton leaving Safeco, he has been much better in Safeco in his career than he has been outside, so you see what happens.

But he is a super talented picture and um, you know, the Yankees in terms of like analytics and and you know, developing pictures, they've done a little bit better of a job obviously with guys like Severino over the past couple of years. So I think that they'll be able to like mitigate Paxton's deficiencies, if that makes sense. I think that makes sense. I think that that makes Holly. That's not just a Yankee fan of me talking like who

would you like? Would you rather have Paxton? Or to me, there's like this group of Clevinger I own, um Flaherty and Corbin who were all kind of going right around him, who might be safer for ending s pitched. But like any basis, Packson will be better than those guys. Probably, yeah, probably.

It's basically just like what do you want? Do you want like a hundred ninety endings of Jamison Tyne giving you a three whatever three six e r A with a solid whip, like a one point one five whip, and you know, maybe a hundred and eighty strikeouts or do you want a hundred and sixty maybe hundred seventy pitched of James Paxson with maybe a little bit of a better e r A and way more strikeouts? Right? Like two strikeouts? So you just you kind of have

to ask yourself, like what do you want? More strikeouts are a little bit harder to come by it, but of course you need help. You need healthy in the rotation too, So why can't the answer to be Patrick Corbyn who's giving you the strikeouts? Right? Probably I just kind of let you inside the mind of Frank. Look

what Maddie Mos said. I can't really disagree with, right, Like he's doing something differently, but like taking away the fact like he's not using his fastball and his other pitches as much and he's throwing a slider forty of the time, So maybe just throwing it more makes it that much better of a pitch hadn't been something that I really considered. I don't know, man, I just kind of feel it, like I feel like we're just paying

for the career year from last year. He's good. He is good like he was he was awesome, Like every metric was like second best in baseball behind Serzer. What else he's looking for? You could have him, Greg, I'm going to have problem with that on the team that we share together. I don't really want him. Really, no team will share together. I don't I don't really want Corman. I don't know. I did. I gotta feel it. Maybe

maybe it's not warranted. I don't know. Okay, okay, you mentioned Jack clar in this tier as well, and I get the tie on thing right. We talk a lot about James Paxton here just now. James Flaherty is, without question, also were Jack Flarerty excuse me, is of course in this tier. Flowerty is the twenty three pitcher on the ward right now, and we'll get to Zachary and and Clevinger as well. Flaherty and Irish last name, Yes, I

don't know, like oh Flarherty's that's exactly. How like when when you're calling out Jackie, I just imagine like an Irish guy, like, hey, Jackie boy, JACKIEO Flaherty, what a jack Jackie boy? I'm doing Like Canadians, we're both thereout that Irish jacton not so good Jack Flaherty, Jackie, You're going off the board. So I imagine people say his name though, big Jackie O Flaherty, Uh going back off the board. Um, and we just lost our Irish listening

audience that much of them. Um Back to back here, Clevinger is like, I'm not from twenty three and me I'm actually very Irish grade. So you can say you should have been people Irish. Would you like Jack Flaherty just flat out do you like Jack Flaherty? Um? I do like Jack Flaherty. I think he has the ability to turn into an ace based on some of the underlying skills here. I mean a thirteen point four percent swinging shrike rate. We're talking about that in the same

range as Luis cast again with with Noah Syndergard. Now, he didn't go enough Annings last year to qualify as a qualified starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, that is, but a strike out that was top ten among starting pitchers last year as a rookie. That's pretty impressive. Tween strike rade is there pur with a sweeping slider. Both pitches were ranked inside the top twenty in fan grass in terms

of pitch values. So he's not one of these guys were like his fastball is really bad and he can never use it like Luis Castillo Luise Castios fastball Greg top ten worst pitches in baseball last off. I didn't want more Decon to hate me too much, but it was ranked in the top ten worst fastballs in baseball last year. Basically he throws a miles per hour, but it's straight as an arrow, Greg, and it's getting squared up. And he actually saw Justin Bore over the weekend square

one up against Louise Castio. Yeah, to make sure. So again we didn't bring it up all modecos here because we don't want him to hate us. But with Jack Flaherty, I think the skills are there. The one thing I worry about is the command, right. So I looked at his month by month e r A and his two worst months I believe were like July in September, and those were the months where his walks per nine were over four Greg. So that's the biggest bugaboo when it

comes to Flaherty. And you know his first pitch strike percentages fifty seven percent. It's something he needs to get better at now. If he brings us up to like the over sixty percent range where he's kind of getting ahead and counts, and he's able to finish people off with with this fastball slider combination, he could like he can. You want to talk about a guy who can make

the next step, it's Jack Flaherty. He has big upside, but in this range he also has more downside because if if the lack, if the command comes back a little bit, and like he starts walking guys, then that's where you can see the whips start to balloon a little bit, and then guys are getting on base, and then maybe he gives up a home run with you know, two or three guys on base rather than like it

being a solo home run because he's walking guys. Then those are kind of like the subtle differences where we're talking about the difference between him being like a low three e r A and he being a high three e r A with like a bad whip. So I think he has higher upside than some people in this range, but he also has lower downside, So I kind of I think this is a good range for him to be. But he definitely definitely has the skills to be one of like the top twenty, maybe even like top fifteen.

Starting pitchers in baseball kind of reminds me of James Paxton last year and the Aaron Nola from a year or two ago as well. Where you're in this range. My issue with taking him is that you're not You're you're paying for that upside, right like you're this spot where he's going high end SP two at this spot. I'm being honest, I don't really love any of the

guys in this way. Like as much as I loved tie Own last year, I loved Corbin Like maybe that's what's just part of it is because I owned them at their discount last year and now I kind of feel like all the value has been sucked out of him and pay a fourth round price tag. Definitely, that's why I don't really want to do. It. Doesn't include Clev as well, because everyone loves Clev. Yeah, it's similar, right, like he is going outside I think the top forty

starting pitchers last year. He started to creep up a little bit in spring training. But I'm a little more apt to take Cleving jur And I'll tell you why, Greg because of the where he plays with the Cleveland Indians. This is what they do. They developed starting pitching they're so good at it, and I think that's why a lot of people are in on Shane Bieber as well as because look at some of the starting pitchers that have come like have come into this organization. Corey Kluber

was a late bloomer but has been amazing. Carlos Carrasco picked up from the Phillies. He's come here. It took him a couple of years, but he's been amazing over the past couple of seasons. Trevor Bauer was traded for with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Took him a couple of years. He has turned into one of the best ten pitchers in baseball last year. This is what they do. And it's not really a terribly tough division either. In fact, it's a tough it's a division they want to target

in terms of opponents that they're gonna be facing. The White Sox. Yeah, they're gonna get Eloy Jimenez. Still not a great lineup, right, Like, we're really worried about John j leading off with the Chicago White Sox. This here. I like the Twins line up a lot. Admittedly I do like that lineup, but the Royals, like, are we worried, Like, no, we're not worried about the Royals either. So Clevenger to me, I haven't ranked just behind James Paxson. Have him ahead

of Jamison ty one. I think I think we saw a lot last year. Uh. He's kind of similar to Jack Flaherty in terms of the walks. He's got to control the walks. He's got to have solid command here with Clevinger. But he was one of thirteen starting pitchers last year to actually go two hundred innings, So he's already has that in his back pocket. We've seen him

do it once. It doesn't you know, I'm not worried about him going to endings again because he's already done it, Greg, So he's probably the safest to get to that plateau out of everyone that we're star talking about in this crew. Maybe Patrick Corbin as well. But you know, he lowered the walks last year. Nine fastball, the slider and curve both ranked inside the top ten in Fangrass in terms

of pitch values last year. That's a big difference Gregg is that he has a second and third go to pitch outside of his fastball, which is already pretty good it's nine. That's the biggest difference between him and some of the other guys here is that he has that second and third pitch, both being breaking pitches that are very very good pitchers pitches with the slider and the curveball. So to me, that just puts him a little bit ahead of the competition. The fact that you know that

he's gonna go two under endings. He's gonna give you a strike out for any so the two hundred strikeouts are gonna be there. Twelve swinging shrike rate was top twenty amongst starting pitchers last year, right in line with Corey Klueber. I think he's a guy who's gonna go three s e r A as well. With some of these other names that we've mentioned. This is kind of

like the projection we're expecting. But I like him a little bit more than Toyown because I know that he's like at least the fact that I've seen him go two pitched matters for me, and I got it, and I get just pitching for the Cleveland Indians like that. You know, they're known for developing these guys. They know how to do it. They've already done it with Clevinger. Isn't that one of the reasons that you kind of really right there that pitching coaches now ye Away, Callaway's

now with with the New York matter. And that's why I brought up stephen that's to you last night and the underlying numbers from man, he's gonna have to take like a step to do something you haven't really seen him do before. Plus he has to say help with stephen Nes not as good as I thought they were going to be when eight before I looked into it and get your righting of these guys creating this whole kind of like the fourth round group, Well do that I have it. I have a Clevinger Clevinger, Tye o

Flaherty Corman. That's that's the four and passions ahead of all. We'll do that when we come back as your best friends forever. Fantasy Sports right or never. Daily Rhodo dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you premier advice. We play every day, all

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wasted money. So I was just subscribe to five, ten or twenty five dollars here, depending on what you're interested in. Sprank samples Patreon four baseball coverage the number three most accurate ranker in all of fantasy baseball Twitter last year. That's that guy right there, more accurate than the all in kid himself. I'm not getting involved. Is it accurate? Is that an accurate portrayal that that would be a

factual statement, Craig, I'm just dealing fact man. You are my Paul Hayman, you are my there you go, you're pumping me up. I I appreciate it. Number three Rancor last year. Unfortunately, we'll just behind Adam Ronus. I mean there must have been something that when wrong there. I mean Adam Romas number two. I mean, there's just no way. He's very good. Top five though, join me on Patreon. I'm actually writing about these hyped up outfielders, Greggy, who

are creeping up draft boards. Not really creeping, they're like flying. So I've already wrote about Austin Meadows and Byron Buckston. I'm also going to write about Jackie Bradley, Jesse Winker and Domingo Santana. These guys are all climbing up draft boards because of what they're doing in the spring. But there's a little bit more than that too. Like with Byron Buxton, he actually made um. He went back to the like drawing board this all season and changed out

his workout regiment. He changed his batting stance, helimitated a leg kick. And you're signing you're you're starting to see some of that payoff here in spring training early on. So you check it out on my Hatreon. I'll let you know whether or not I am by rending the Buckston again. I'll leave the promo to you. I feel like I'm doing a good job where we're doing all right? Yeah, um, maybe maybe it's plat you buy me beers. Mm hmm, Okay, the deal is a deal. I'm going to buy you

beer right now. I mean you already you know this week? Sure, let me know what day not to bring much? Well, we want to do a da Ko wasn't around because you're not making much here. She Friday Friday is the day. Friday, cool Friday, Friday lunch. It is um, all right, So you asked me before the break how I rank this tier of guys, we're gonna get into the ones we

haven't spoken about yet. But as you can tell, Number one for me is Patrick Corbyn in this tier, I'm not you have a gut feeling that's cool, But everything I look at like he's really good. There's no sign that like head of James Paxton for me. Yeah, all right, so you can drift him in your home league. Oh, I will keep him my home plea. Alright right, I'm actually not keeping you don't like him for no reason, just like you like I'm keeping. This is James Town

for two dollar cheaper. This is literally just a gut feeling which is so interesting to me. But I like it. I like it, believe me. I Patrick Corvins number one for me, and then I got James Paxton number two. Then I have Steven Strasburg number three in this year before James and ty On who goes number four? I got Clevinger five, I got Jack Flaherty six, and then I got Zach Ranky seven. Did you say I did? I haven't right after Paxton before Cleve, so me waxing

poetic on Clevinger, didn't I like Cleve Man? I I think it's tears very tight. I can see you taking cleb over toy own. Um, you have Zach. We learned this, tire, Greg, I don't have a lot of people do I don't have zachar this. I'm sorry, I don't know if we learned this tyre. But Zach Gernky is at the end of this year, and you were saying to me before we um hit break, and then during the break that he was having agism and being a year early rather

than a year late. And I was sold, admittedly last week at justin Burland here, I was all out of this guy until we kind of dove into the stats and I realized there's zero signs of slow going down for this human being. Well, Frank was telling me during the break, that's not exactly true when it comes to Zac Grinky. We're the signs that we're seeing when it

comes to Grinky. Yeah. So with Granky last year, you saw the fastball velocity dipped all the way down to eighty nine point six miles per hour on average, which was a career low for him. Hard hit rate was fourth highest UM unqualified starting pitchers last year as well. And then in the second half you see the strikeout rate come down by three percent and the fifth go up to four point zero zero Greg. So to me, that's enough to like lower him in his tier. I

don't think he's a fourth round pitcher. You don't really have to pay that price tag either. You can get him in the fifth round. Again, this is a roster construction thing where if you take guys who are a little bit more injury prone, but you want endings like Granky. I think is a safe guy for endings like That's what he's gonna give you over two pitched and four of the last five seasons, so I think he's pretty

safe for at at least two under endings. But I do worry about the skills kind of declining a little bit back to back seasons. Oh A three twenty e r A. As Frank said, he we're such a vision two like gotta face the Dodgers, gotta face the Rockies, which he's always had to do. But you know, with a declining fastball, I just worry about that a little

bit more. Yeah, tough, the wind is gonna be there, like the run support with the Diamondbacks and they lose Goldschmidt, I don't I don't know how great the line up is going to mean. Now He's interesting. As the season we're on, he did get worse. As I think you mentioned. What striking to me was the K numbers really came down. Although back in his best year of his career, got a strikeout rate barely eight strike up her nine rather barely eight, which it was kind of interesting. Um, walks

went back up. But he used to walk a lot more guys he does now. So I don't like. I'm not totally out, I would say on Zach Rinky, UM not an active I just think that he has the least amount of upside of the guys we've talked about Zach wield ranked ahead of himself. I don't agree with that. Um, I just think he has the least on the upside of this man. I don't like him. Again, a lot of people don't even realize the Zach Wheler pitched a hundred eight innings last he did about the years years

before that. Ye also, but you skipped a couple in it and I realized that. But he's not a concern that he would so many innings last year after not pitching into the last two seasons for the most part, Well, Gregg,

he actually got better as the season went on. So again what I mentioned, how about this Greg, you know, his final eleven starts as great as he was, right, he had like a sub two e r A. Were spoke about the numbers a little bit earlier on the show, like point eight one whip and you know, his his expit was right around like three points, like three point

four seven, so was sub three point five. You know, if you keep your expectations realistic, I think that he can be a sub three point five year a guy with a near strike upper ending. And if he you know, if he continues this progress that he made last year in terms of not walking people, because walks used to be a big issue for him. It's not like he didn't walk anyone last year, but he was much better

in terms of the command department. And you know, he wasn't uh, you know, he wasn't walking as many guys. So that again, what Mordice said about him is true. If he can continue and build off the games that he made last year, then yes, he can jump into the top twenty. And that's what I'm expecting to do. In nine of those eleven final starts that he made. He went at least seven innings pitched nine times. I mean seven innings nine different times over his final eleven starts.

That's amazing. It's one of the It's one of those Japans of games. So they trusted him last year. They pushed him and he responded well, So I'm trusting him listening. It's one of those. I own Zach Wheeler last year, so I know I recognize in the great fantasy based momentational I won first in my league, I finished fourth in the overall. Yeah, I was right there with you. Yeah. I mean the people that own Zach Wheeler last year recognize how good he was. Can he continue? Can he

build on that? I think what's good is his ADP isn't around these guys right now, which is obviously a great thing because he's still UM. You can still get him an a decent value, not a fantastic value, but a decent enough value, I think, UM for Zach Wheeler. But will it uh will continue into his is a contract? Your fan, right, so will it continue into this contract year? Is it possible to bets fall out and he gets traded?

That's something you're interested. He becomes Patrick Corban level of good. Maybe he becomes Patrick Corban level of good. And Mike Flora has a lot to say on Zach Wheeler as well. Hand over there Mike Florio's Patreon page to learn more about Zach Wheeler. Um, we're like one of those strip adapters where we just we're just plugging in everything you gotta do it. Look look for those that are wondering.

We have gotten some questions about this. This is the spot where Clayton Kershaw is now going pretty pretty normally. I would say his a DPS about sixty two. He has begun throwing pretty lightly. Again. Oh, I don't expect him to be ready for the beginning of the regular season, but probably far a little bit after that. Are you at this price at about two a d P? Are you in Clayton Kershaw? No. I actually had the opportunity to draft him in the Great Fantasy Basic Invitation. He

went pick eighty one. I passed him up in the fifth round. In the fourth round as well. You guys have to ask yourself this question, Greg, why do you want to be in on this at this because of Clinton Kershaw? That's the theory, But the skills were already declining, right, So I think this is uh. We said this a lot during the football season. Strip the name I'm off the back of the jersey here for Clayton Kershaw. And

you know the basketball velocity was dipping last year. He's been hurt the past couple of years with these crop back injuries. The skills were starting to decline last season as well. And on top of that, he's hurt before the season already starts. You ask yourself the question why. I don't think there's any reason to do it. Okay, I agree with you. I agree with you the that ultimately I'm not. I don't want to mess with this. It only caused me more pain then reward. I would say,

at what point do you draft him? Though? That's what it comes down to to me. Are you taking Are you taking Clinton Kershaw before you take Mike Fultonevitch? I mean he's hurt too, well, he should be bad by now. He's like throwing today. Yeah, oh man, I don't want either one of them. All right, I'll get another one. Are you taking Clint Kershaw before you take Luis Castia? No, no, let's takes you. Are you taking him before you take Charlie Morton like that. That's a range where I think

I would take. I would start to like think about it, which is like playing kershard David Price. I would take Price. Do you're looking at the past? Pick one. I think I'm gonna have him. That's where he's gonna settle it. Because I have Prices my thirtieth thirty picture. I have more than one, so I think it's right around that range. I bring up Clayton Kershaw. I gotta bring up Madison Bumgarner in this spot also because they've been around a long time NLS Foe's a long time really good players.

Madison Bumgarner has broken down now the last couple of years, and a year ago at this time, I threw everything out from twenties six freak injury threw it out. This is not this year doesn't count. Let's right here last year, and I told you not to do it, sold you not to draft him. That's correct. We were starting to see the beginning of the end. Correct. I didn't get him anywhere. You're a lot Jack was more correct than my logic is, and I didn't listen to my own logic.

I drafted Yeah, Well that was before he got hurt. Drafted like I like the two or three swing, and then he got hurt. It's awful. Finished last year six and seven with an EARRA of three points two six is actually very good. He's fip an x fit obviously much higher than that. Strikeout rate terrible, walk more guys than ever, terrible a lot not to like the maze with Bea mcgarner despite the ear a fifth and infitt the ear a rather yeah. And look it's it's the

decline of his fastball. You see it like the past three seasons, right, great isolated power. Isolated power is its logging percentage minus batting average. Right, so I'm looking at the isolated power on hit on his pitches. His fastball over the past three seasons has been two oh three isolated power in sixteen up to two twenty six, all the way up to two seventy two last year. So when people are getting his fastball, they're crushing it. And his spring has been a mixed back to this point.

He pitched one ending in his first starting and give up like five or six runs, and then last week he pitched over the weekend he pitched three endings. He only give up one run. He gave up a leadoff home or to Jesse Winker, who's one of these hyped up outfielders right now. But that's lefty on lefty right there. So I think there's concern. I think there's a legitimate concern for Madison Bumgarner. You know, as good as he's been,

he's been a workhorse. He goes two hundred endings. You know, who also went to under ning pitch and then just kind of like fell off a cliff one year. That was Felix Hernandez. I don't know if it's fair to say that, like it might be unfair to like make that direct comparison, but there's a lot of endings on that arm. Now. I don't know how much of his fastball declining has been due to all these like freak accidents that he's been in, like over the past couple

of years. Last year it was like the fractured hand in spring training, you know, trying to feel the line drive, and then it was the dirt bike accident. How much of that has influenced his performance? I mean maybe there are you know, chronic lasting effects from those accidents that you know are affecting him, and there are going to

continue to affect him. So I mean that there are just too many question marks, And I get it once you get into like this range of pictures, there's gonna be a lot of question marks with a lot of these guys. But I'd rather take one of these, like younger starting pitchers who has upside at this point, I

I worry a lot about Madison bomb Garterer. I agree, I'm gonna have him ranked this outside of my top forty, which is crazy to say, so I don't know where I'm gonna have him ranked, but I agree with you that much like Clint Kershaw on the upside just isn't what what it is for some of these younger guys, Like yes, you want a reliable veteran, but like I think Felix fernand is a really good example because it's a young guy who've had a lot of innings on

that shoulder for a very young age, and you look at the age like, oh, he's hold bounce back, he's got a lot left. I get it. Last year and again the ear it was fine, the indicators not nearly

as fine. I'm gonna let someone else do manage mom Garner, Like wouldn't you rather take a shot on like Eduardo Rodriguez, Greg Like, take a shot on one of these upside starting pitchers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nick Pa Vetta, uh Nathan Vivaldi, who I think has upside, wouldn't rather take a shot on one of those guys rather than like I'm Garner. It would. That's where I'm at. It would. That's what That's what I'm saying. That listens pose is anyone. We're

making good progress here. We get to have about her mom. Marquez, now that's up next, and we call him Matt Modiguebeck. I'm just kidding, guys, don't do that down soon. Yeah. Marquez is he's interesting man because in the in the second half of US year he was otherworldly. First half

not so good. I believe it pitched like a five e r A, but his ERA indicators were much better than that two point six one e r A in the second half that was thirteen best in baseball at one point zero zero, whip among starting pitchers was ninth best, thirty three point nine percent strikeout rate, fourth best in baseball. His hey minus walk percentage point four percent that was fourth and best in baseball two point three zero x fip, Greg. So you're wondering, oh, the two point six one e

r A, you know how good was that? Actually? Well, his two point three three zero x fit pitching in Colorado half the time was third best in all of baseball. Shrike Rey, I mean he was ridiculous. He was absolutely ridiculous. Si percent first pitch strike percentage. He's getting ahead of counts, near thirty five percent chase rate. People are chasing his pitches. And this is what we talked about. He made a

tangible difference in his arsenal. He lowered the fastball usage by seven percent in the second half, and he upped that slider percentage by seven percent. The whip percent for his slider and his curveball are both over twenty percent. Those are nasty, nasty pitches. Here with her Man Marquez, the ear at home Greg four point seven four. Here's where we're at with her Man Marquez. It feels like it's John Gray all over again. We're getting a monstrous

second half here where the strikeouts are great. He's getting you swinging strikes, he's limiting the walks. Everything. The ERA indicators are right in line with him, but he sucks in corps Field, Force Fields undefeated, Greg her Man Marque be on everyone else's team this year except I said it last week. I'll say it against the Corps is

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round and teams up with a lunatic fringe. Gave maurenci on like that morning after that's from nine to twelve. Uh, they'd actually hung out with dam Reset before and told me some stories. Um. And then tomorrow, of course, at noon, Frank and I went back Fantasy BFFs. We go from to from twelve to two each and every day Monday through Friday. Okay, we got through a lot of pictures today. I think we're making a lot of progresses. I think we're gonna we're gonna tap out right around our top

thirty here. We'll see how many starting pictures top thirty starting pictures here. Um, so I think we can kind of run through some of these guys here the rest of this tire. So I have this tier Tier four for me is that starts to a pick SP twenty two. That's Jose Burrios Lea's Casto, her Man Marquez, Shane Bieber, Miles Michaelis, Chris Archer, to knacka, Robbie Ray, David Price. All right, let's get into him let's do it. Um, let's get David Price first. How about that David Price?

How the good year when he wasn't facing the Yankees. When you're facing the Yankees and it went incredibly poorly. It's always a narrative when we laugh and we joke about as Yankee fans with this duty is terrible against the Yankees forever and ever and ever, pretty good against everybody else. I'm back in press this year. I don't hate him. I actually have him ranked five spots lower

than the consensus. Like, I think he's fine. I think you have to realize there's still risk involved with this elbow thing, like when when did it come out last year? Last spring? Right where like he has like a partially torn U c L or you know, something in the elbow right, but you can pitch through it like Tanaka has done it for the past three seasons. It feels like, so, David Price, you still have to realize there is some risk. But um, he bounced back last year, Greg, I mean

he still went a hundred and seventy six pits. He gave you over a strikeout for ending the whip one point one four, you know, one point one four whip over a hundred and seventy six endings. That is, Um, that's nothing to sneeze that. That's that's that's pretty good here. So a nice little bounceback performance here with David Price doing it with less velocity to than ever before. I need two point seven miles per hour. Uh, the swinging strike rate did come down a little bit. Um. Actually

that's a little bit concerning. So you know, I do have him some of these below, some of these other guys here, Um, the nine swinging strike rate. You know what I find that interesting? Greg? Why frank so swingey strike rate is below lea g average at nine point six percent, and but his K per nine was nine point zero five, right, so he's everything a strike up. Any Miles Michaels was also a swinging strike erate of nine point six percent. Now these aren't direct correlation things,

but it shouldn't be this big of a disparity. So Miles Michaels is K per nine last year, Greg, if you have to guess what it was, what would you say, first year you're back in the majors seven and a half, it was six and a half six point five five k per nine. David Price over nine case per nine had the same swinging strike rate, and Miles michael Is chase rate was six percent higher. Kind of super weird

David Prices. I don't think I'm gonna own shares of David Prices because I like players who are going around this range more right so over the past week and NFBC ADP He's going pick like straight up. I'd rather have Miles Michaels more and he's going right around the same range. Zach Wheeler is only going nine spots higher. You know how I feel about Zach Wheeler, much rather to have him than David Price. And then even Luis Castillo is going he's going about fourteen picks later. I'd

rather have Castillo than David Price. I'd rather have Chris Archer, who's going thirty seven picks later. I'd rather have Tanaka, who's going also thirty seven picks later. It's only I'm gonna own David Price because of the pictures who are going around him in this range. Yeah, I think there's again, much like Kershaw and bub Garner, there is a lot of higher upside guys, and David Price, I think the upside is seemingly gone. You talked a lot about Miles Michelis, like,

is he somebody that can improve that strikeout rate? Like I? And he has really good command right one point three zero walks Brian's actual look, the era indicators were much higher. He's not going to pitch to a sub three ear right. You give up as much contact as you do with a guy like Miles michael Is you know a two point eight three e r a. I mean, that's fool's gold. But can he give you a three five six ear

a with a good whip? Because he doesn't walk anybody and the strikeouts come up a little bit, maybe the k per nine closer to like seven and a half, maybe even closer to eight. And he gets people to chase a lot, and he Miles Michaels hays a really interesting arsenal of pitches. He there's a four steamer twenty six percent of the time, a sinker two percent of the time, a slider twenty six percent, and a curveball one percent. So we have four different pitches that he

throws at least twenty one percent of the time. That's a diverse pitching arsenal. I'man I like I kind of like Miles michael Is. If you draft him, you do have to realize this. You have to pair him with someone who maybe it's gonna be a high whit pitcher, but it's gonna give you a lot of strikeouts. And what I told Greg when I was, you know, thinking about drafting a guy like Michaels, is Haaren with Robbie Ray, that's so funny. Lot of like Rodriguez, It's not funny.

I was gonna literally have to bring that up. But I was like, wait a minute, this is because you and I had this conversation exactly right. So you just have to temper expectations in terms of the strikeouts. If you get like two any pitch from Miles Michaelis again this year. Last season he gave you two hundred forty six strikeouts, I think it's gonna come up from that. I would expect, let's say, hundred and six hundred seventy

strikeouts this year from Miles Michaels. If he goes two dings pitched, you have to get someone who's gonna help you out a little bit more in strikeouts, right, So ropair him with Chris Archer even in that range. So Robbie Ray, we doesn't want to get to you next in this tier for you, And I'm very interested to hear. Why so Ray's caper nine? You know it's ridiculous, right, It's over twelve, which is crazy. The ear A slightly

under four ERA A indicators. Actually, you know, if you're an expect guy like Modica, it seems better actually at three point seven seven. Well, the FIPS is at four point three one. Here's the very damaging part of Robbie Ray everything, specifically the walk rate over five over five is the walk per nine. I don't know if there's anybody worse in all Major League baseball then Robbie Ray

look at it also. But I mean I have it up right here, all right, Is there anybody worse among pitchers starting pitchers with a hundred and twenty innings pitch last year he was nine is five point zero nine walk for nine was the worst in baseball, worst than Francisco Loriano, Lucas Giolito and Sean Okay. So again, the worst in baseball. But he's not actually that bad, like he was picking through injury last year. And it's never it's always been bad year prior a year prior seventeen

three point nine four. The walk great. This is a guy that always walks in his career. The walk rates about four. He walks about four guys per ninenes. Considering he doesn't pitch nine in every start. He walks a lot of guys in every start. Now he combats out, of course with a strikeout. But you look at that um let the base percentage eighty and a half percent. There's always guys on base for Robbie, right, it's can

he get them out? In the left the base percentage was obviously higher with you know, he was better at eighty four and a half percent. Not a surprise there. What do you want Robbie Ray as SP three year later? Okay?

I mean ideally, if you could start off your you're gonna end up using a lot of draft capital if you want to pull this off, though, like if you want them as your SP four Just thinking about this, say you draft two starting pitchers in the first four rounds, you get Miles Michaelis and like the eighth round and then you get Robbie Ray in the ninth. That could work out, but then again you're using you're using four of your top nine draft picks on starting pitchers. Then

and then you don't even have a closer yet. So these are all things that you have to weigh. But you know, I think another picture that you can pare um him with his Sinaka because Sanaka is a good whip picture. So I'm you worry a little bit about the whip could blow up a little bit with Robbie reik here, he doesn't give up a lot of hits. Again,

it's it's the walks that are a huge issue. If we look over the past few seasons, his batting average against has been one nineties seven and twenty seventeen when he was amazing, and then last year it was to fifteen. Robbie Ray doesn't give up a lot of hits. He's got nasty stuff, there's no denying that. Like he's gonna get a lot of swings and missing but he yeah, he doesn't know where the ball is going half the time.

So interesting his e ar a at home in Arizona four point seven three away from Arizona and Chase Field three or five. So maybe the human door helps him out a little bit this year. Why didn't it last year he was pitching through injury like it was kind of a mess of a season last year for Robbie Ray, it definitely was. And he's never gone more than a

hundred and seventy four and a third innings pitch. But we know what his upside could be, Greg, You know his upside if he if he pitches a hundred and he picks a hundred sixty two innings in twenty seventeen and gave owners two hundred eighteen strikeouts. Actually in seventeen he gave two hundred eighteen strikeouts and back to back seasons.

He'll be hard. Has to find a guy at this range of the draft, in the nine tenth round of draft, who's gonna give you close to twitter and twenty strikeouts, Greig, it just don't come around all that often. So I understand why people you know, want Robbie Ray. But you just have to know that there's volatility here in terms of the whip and the ear a. So you're gonna have to pair him with someone else who's gonna bring down those categories. You know, if you get him as

your SP four, that's awesome. I think realistically you get him as like your SP three. I think pairing him with a guy like Miles michaelis actually makes a lot of sense, so to probably, like I'm trying to look at right, it wasn't dissimilar like the ear A says he was better in the second half, Like wait, better could be like a three point seven ear a picture

with like a one point to five whip. But he's also gonna give you like over twelve case per not definitely is that making better for roto or points or neither? Definitely better for Rodo strikeouts matter so much? In my points league? You only get half a point per picture strikeout, So I mean, I'm more likely to take guy like Miles Michaels in the points league just because they're gonna give me the Endings and Paul Endings that you brought

up Chris Archer before. Chris Archers obviously a lightning rod of a name. There's some experts absolutely love him that some expers absolutely hate him. And as Frank said, so interesting do you like Chris Archer this year? I'm more apt to get in on Chris Archers this year than ever before because no, not just that, it's I'm sorry, Well, if Sandro one of our editors, he's not here today, but if you're home listening, Sandro don't hate me because he does not. He does not buy anything. I am

so excited for the Sandro attack. He does not. He does not buy into like the race seriae effects um, although I think you can argue against it. But Chris Archer, the past couple of years you've had to use a fourth fifth round price tag on him. Now you're getting even like the nine tenth round range, right, And I know he's pitched too over a four e R A three years in a row. It's been frustrating, but look at those underlying numbers, like every year, like is this

just who he is? Like he's a four e R A pitcher who's never going to picture his peripherals because the guy has a career three point four or five x fit but he has a career three point seven e L. Right, So it's like it's kind of like the John Gray thing too, right, Like everyone wants to buy into the upside. To me, I think Chris Archer

has upside. And you know, last year the strikeouts came down, they were down to nine point eight case per nine, but in years past eleven case per nine, ten case per nine with Chris Archer, Like you know, the strikeouts are gonna be there. Uh, he was a little bit dinged up less. You're only pitched a hundred forty innings, but in the three years before that, two hundred innings pitched.

I've never had shares of Chris Archer before because I never liked that you have to pay fourth fifth round price tag for a guy that was giving you an e r A over four and a whip that was you know, one point to five. But now you're getting the similar the same upside that he's had in the past in Pittsburgh where maybe they can figure him out like he's he's out of the A L East Yanel Central is still not a great division because he has to face the Brewers and the Cardinals and the Reds.

But he doesn't have to pitch in the Al East anymore. And you're getting him in the nine tenth round. I got him in the tenth round right as my you know sp three read in a Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. I like taking a stab at the outside there. I'm a little bit more likely to take him at that point. He's always been a guy like he's. He has to work on a change and hopefully the Pirates put some emphasis on that because the fastball we've known, it's always

been electric. Greg you know, he lives in the mid nineties with the fastball, and he has a great slider, but he's really a fastball slider and that's what's got him into trouble over the past couple of years. And this is what I say, is that starting pitchers need a third pitch. That's what Chris Archer needs. So hopefully he works on that and figures it out. Like the swinging strike rate was still in line with his career last year. Swinging strike rate, that's why we like Louise Cassio.

Giving you a thirteen percent scween strike rate, You've got people to hate more than ever last year to so I actually think the strikeout rate should have been closer to what his career remarks are. Then he got a little bit unlucky in terms of the strikeouts last season. I mean, I'm Chris Archer man. I like Chris Archer two man. I find myself going back and forth because I like to not Ka too, and they're always in the same range. What do you like between Archer and Tanaka?

Like the winds are probably gonna be there for Tanaka but the durability, Like I expect Chris Archer to go closer to pitch and I would Tanaka. I think Tanaka is probably more like one six one seventy innings. They're actually very very very similar. Do you need to because like Tanaka is a great whip Pitcher, Archer probably closer to like one point to five whip. I think the strike out upside is better for Archer. It's like, what do you want? What do you want of these guys?

Because if you want whip, then I think you take Tanaka, and which I've learned is very hard to find later on in draft. So you can get like sub one point one five whip out of Tanaka in the nine tenth round. That's very valuable Chris Archer. What he has is we have the peripherals. We're kind of being sold on the promise again here, but again you're getting at

a discount compared two years past. You know, the hope being like a three seven or better ear rate of Chris Archer with at one point to five whip and han or eleven case per nine, that would be pretty good. If he goes two d any pitch and gives you like two strikeouts with three seven e R and at one point to five whip that would be a very very profitable picture that you're getting in the ninth or tenth round. These guys are very similar to me man like Frank get both. You're trying to get both on

your team. They're like very solid, you know, they're not like But again, I like Archer because you don't have to pay pay the price tag now of a sudden, you're getting, you know, four or five rounds value compared two years past, because he really changed as much as a starting pitcher. I don't think so. I don't think either. Would you rather have these guys Robbing or Robbie Ray? I have both of these guys ranked hier than Rob. You just think they're a little bit safer. Archer has

similar upside. Yeah, Rather these guys are Kyle Hendrix. I'm just kidding. Next question, would you rather have these guys are Charlie Morton the one starting pitcher I skipped according to the nfcc A d P. Yeah, I have Charlie Morton behind this tire. He's the start of the next tier for me. Do you want to do that today that tomorrow? No, because we can do like outside the top thirty tomorrow. Okay, one guy that we didn't talk about who is inside my top twenty five is Shane Bieber. Sure,

but we we kind of mentioned him on Friday. The hard hit rate was scary. He lived in the zone a lot last year. Um, he's got to learn that to throw some pitches outside the strike of the But the Sweney strike rate was there, the whiff rate on his pitches, he's legitimate change Like, that's why people are buying into Shane Bieber, like legit control. Picture does not walk a lot of guys, but he can learn to nibble a little bit more and again I buy into

the Cleveland Indians organization. They just developed Clevinger last year. Is it that crazy to imagine that Shane Bieber can take some kind of Clevinger like leap this season? I don't even get that crazy. I don't think a lot of the reasons you like my Clevinger last year, you have every rights like Shane Bieber. This year? Would you rather have Bieber or this arch group? I think you need right. I think you want to be safe to

take the archer Ka group. If you want to take a shot, probably would I think shaneber I'd rather take Shane Meaber all right tomorrow on the program The Angels, Andrew Heiny and Tyler Scaggs, Charlie Morton at Water Rotarriguez and more. For Frank Stanfel, I'm Greg Susman takes the Matte Modec and the guys downstairs. We'll do it all go tomorrow, we hope,