March 4th, Hour 1: Mid-Tier starting pitching on a Modica Monday

Fantasy best Friends Forever, m to to do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do do do do too. Yeah, this is the Fantasy best Friends Forever. Here are the Fantasy Sports Your Network, alongside Frankie Stample. I am Greg Susan Fran. What's going on, Greggae, Welcome back, Happy Monday. Greg. If you didn't know who DK metcalf is, you certainly know. Now what are you doing, buddy?

I'm doing it right, man, I'm doing it right. Weird dreams lately, though, weird dreams, So that means you've been sleeping. How have you been sleeping? I was up like several times last night, but like weird dreams, like I don't remember them now, but like I'm just thinking about Matt Modica not dreaming that problem. That would be a good dream. I appreciate that. What's on man? Jump guys, how's you going with today? You upgraded from a metsat to a

twins hat this week? Well, I just saw the poll Frank Stample put out where you put out about which one? So I figured it was there you go, jas, there you go, there it is, there it is. Where's your Cincinnati reds hat? Matt? That I do that own one? That was not an option, not yet, not yet, not yet. Being the biggest fan of Luis cast you, I think you need one, Maddiemo. Uh, you know what, I guess I'd become the biggest fan or his PR spokesman on Twitter.

At least. It's because I think some of the statements that are made about him aren't factually correct or if you do an overview, you know there's a lot more than that meets the eye. And that's been banging this drum for Louis Castio for a while. True story, Matt. Last night I was texting Greggy and I said, I'm looking forward to you and Matt going head to head on Louise Castillo because Greg's has been owned Louise Castio. Last year he was thoroughly disappointed. And I know again, yeah,

you're you're banging that drum, so it gonna be fun. Well, it's interesting. You know what we last last week we on Friday, Frankie, we kind of jumped around a lot, right, We started going in order with with Nick and then when Vetger came up here, we just you know, we just jumped all over the place. So I thought, today we do the same thing and just jumped all over

the place. And that's why I want to start. I want to start with Louise Castio because when he talked about out some of the hot names that are going off the board, some of the sexier names, and you hear about, um, the Paventas and the shame beavers of the world and so wanted, so forth. But those guys are going after Louis Castio, who over the last ten days or so in the NFBC, Louis Castier is up

to the pitcher off the board at about pick one twelve. Again, that's in the last you know, ten days or so. Um in the NFBC, Matt Louis. It's amazing because if you didn't own Louise Castio last year. You obviously we can say it's for a lot of players. They didn't own a guy last year. You have a totally different mindset of this player. And when the the end of the text message that I said to Frank was Mattery knows my arguments, like, I owned this guy through July

last year, and it was miserable. It was a miserable, miserable mirrorretle experience. And I dropped him and I felt good about dropping him, and I never looked back. And by never looking back, I obviously missed what he did, of course in August September when he turned it around. But my question for you is what makes you so sure? And I don't know how so sure you are? What makes you so short that Louise Castio we saw in August and September of last year. He's the guy that

we're going to get from April on this year. I'm anxiously awaiting this opportunity. And I did a tweet the other day showing, you know, three months of sub three e r A by Louis Severino and Louis Castillo and the raised north of five for both uh Louis Severino and Louis Castillo. One was drafted as an ACE, the other was drafted as your second or third starting pitcher. One went off the board as they pick last year.

One was pick. Uh, just real quick. When you look at your end of season valuations, Sevno didn't lose that much money compared to you know, he lost money, but he was pretty much in line of what you would have figured him to be. Castillo gets crushed in the end of season uh. Value relations. My point is if you had your ace that you basically couldn't use for the second half of the season because he had a five E r A and a one forty one whip, the same whip that still had in his first three

months that were terrible. That's like you know, having your study starting running back who you had a bench for the second half of the season, or he gave you negative points each week. So I don't think people really look at it that way. Uh. Too often they just see the end of the season. Well, I had some arena for twenty eight. He made twenty three, so it wasn't that bad. It was really bad because that guy was your ACE. Why I'm confident in Louis Castile this

year is no one argues about his stuff. That's not an argument anybody ever makes. The first half, the first three months, where he puts to like a five eight five, you're already one whip. Uh, the fastball velocity was down like a mile and a half almost two miles. Uh. In the second half he got the increased of view on the fastball. He used the slider and change ten percent more while decreasing the fastball. Now he has a fastball that you know, we as we sat in the

second half was almost about ninety seven. Uh. You know, you have to have control of your command of the fastball. Is you know something that really helps a picture. His fastball needs to improve. Even though you throw it hard, you gotta know where it's going and where it's place it. So he's got two pitches that he whips on last year. Not a lot of pictures can say that in Major League baseball. Is he a guarantee? No, But neither is Barrios,

neither is Wheeler, and neither is Herman Marquez. I mean Marquez out of the foursome, has probably the best skill set and he pitched to a sub three e r A excuse me, a sub three x FIP at home last year. But when you look at the Certifice acts, it just shows you how difficult and what a monster courses no matter how good you are, of course, can still the feed you. I look at what Louise Castio did in that second half where you and you make a lot of good points throughout that. Speaking of Luisi

sa Marino and Louis CASTI like, I get it. I can hear what you're saying. But in July where he really went off or he was great, Phip was great, a brutal August like that, inconsistency was still there. And Frankie, maybe you could answer this question like Castile, as Matt said, was coming off the board in like as your third or show starting pitcher last year? Prostially what pick was that last year? Eighty? Last year? So you're getting them okay, perfect,

that was all a thirty picks later. You're getting it, get later than Sa Mareno, Well you know what I'm saying this this year, Luise, Yes, year later than you were last year. Most people are still getting him as their SP three. That's true, that's true. Are you basically are you comfortable with that meant, are you comfortable with this guy as your sp three? Are you taking him again seventh round? Yeah? No, I think you're probably gonna have to want to pay in a sixth round, probably

early seventh, you know, depending on format and stuff. But my case is the talent is there is. I'll continue to saying none of these four are a lot to deliver it. Look, Zack, Zach Wheeler was awesome for the past, you know, like over over three months last year. But I mean, I just can't, you know, say Zach Wheeler is definitely going to do it. There's a lot of indicators. I mean, Zach Wheeler in in that stretch where he

was amazing. He had a home run the fly wall percentage of five nine percent, he had a babbit of to fifty. He had a left on base percentage of like eighty something. So if you you know, just pull those numbers back a little to the norm, you know, he's really got to ramp it up again. And I

like Zach Wheeler. I'm not talking bad about him. I'm just trying to make the case that after the first you know, thirteen pictures, that's why you know, I want to live in a certain area when I'm drafting, when I'm selling my kds, you know, it gets risky or and risky, whether it's injuries, inexperience, or track recording. Yeah, and that's definitely right about that. Like I have my top thirteen. The tier ends with Synderguard. And we we talked about that tier a lot last year last week, Greg,

where it's you know, at the middle tier. You know, once you get into like the early third round, it's like your Severino Carrasco, Walker Bueller, Synderguard. That's that's my that cuts off my thirteen. That's the end of it. We talked about this that I mean, how have I know that I know the answer to this, but for the listening audience and people watching at home and Greg, how have you how have you been constructing your pitching? Because I know you're big on you know, you have

to have a plan heading into your draft. Are you trying to get two of the top thirteen pitchers and then you know maybe in that six seventh round range you're trying to get a Louise Castillo or maybe even a little bit later on a Shane Bieber as your SP three or or Zach Wheeler, one of these guys. Do you have to have one of these top thirteen pitchers or is that how you wanted most of your draft to come out with one of these top two of these top guys to to lead your staff for

this season. I don't have to have one. I prefer to have one. Uh. Look, if somebody fell on the hitting side that was too good to pass up. He overweighted that that age value, and I figured, I'm just gonna, you know, load up and starting pitching. I'm I'm always gonna make audibles at the draft table, but as you said, I'm gonna walk in there with with a plan, and I do want to grant I'm totally fine with Syndegard

Syndeguard as my ace. I mean, he has the skills set and even in a down year, look what he was able to do. So he's come out and said he's getta better on himself and all that. He's not taking one of these team friendly deals and stuff like that. So I want to have at least one of those aces. Uh. That's why picking in the top say five, really, in my opinion, gives you an advantage in that second and third round because the end of the second early third. You don't have to take a picture at the end

of the second. But if you if that's the how you're scud on your board and you want to do that, you can either fortify your hitting to take your first ace, and it gives you that option in the third early third round we have even a second ace. I mean, if if you started off with a Garrett pol under the second and Carlos Karashka was sitting there in the beginning of the third, that's tough to pass up. Which if you take those two you can really just start

pounding hitters. I understand you're passing up on elite hitting as well there, but you already got a first round and hitter and there's plenty of good guys in a round four and five. Yeah, So I think that's well put. I think I think what Matt said about you know the obviously, I mean you can say this about any position, but obviously with pitching, it I mean it's even uh,

it's it's more under a microscope. Is once you get past those first thirteen, it's like the lower you go is like there's gonna be more and more questions, Like there's gonna be question marks with all of these guys in this range. So you know, I can't dispute that I currently have Louise Castio ranked as my twin the third starting pitcher. I have him right behind Jose Burrios. I know some people might prefer to Castio to Burrios. Um. I mean, we're skipping over a whole tier, which we'll

get to like as as we go. We'll get to them. But you know, Luis Castillo is one of these guys. He's very polarizing, you know, like a lot of people want to hear about him. What is there to like to me? I saw him ranked as my SP twenty three. I feel like there's a lot of moving parts. Again, you could say this for a lot of these pictures in this range. It seems like no matter what you say about Castillo, like there needs to be things that

go right for him to pay off this value. Again, same thing for a lot of the guys in this range. But just like the e r A by month modica, I mean, it's just all over the place, like last year April seven point eight, five May three point four, eight, June six point seven, five, July two point two, five, August five point five seven September one point zero nine and how over the place, man, how about this he has one of the same problems that has as well.

Those home roads splits are start. Castillo was like dominant at home. He had uh striking a percentage maybe a five percent walk percentage, and his extrip was like three. That's a great American, you know they like to joke around, great American, small park, whatever you want to call it. He was really good at home. His problem is even at home on the road. He gave him fourteen homers at home, fourteen homers on the road. That's something that needs to, you know, get closer to the average as

opposed to be in touch an outlier. You know, you can't just keep giving up the long ball constantly. And I think that could correct a bit. I'm not saying he's gonna totally solve it, but this is the same thing with Burrios. I mean he is night and day home in the road, He's true, Yeah, Burrios three point zero three, three point zero three e r A at home last year, four point eight five on the road. Sto three point five one at home, five point zero

three on the road. Which is weird again because he pitches in Cincinnati. Like that was one of the first things that stood out to me. Why does he pitch so well at home? Is it just like a comfort factor kind of thing. It doesn't make sense because it's it's known as a smaller ballpark, hitters ballpark. Well, it's weird it is, And that makes me a little bit nervous draft teams that a number that could go up. I I know the fIF and the x FI. We're not that far away from the three five number at

home in general, which is a good thing. I just want to jump one thing. That one thing that does confuse me. If we look at like catch Still last year was going off the board at He's dropped some picks. You know, he's pulled back in in a DP, but a guy like Tanaka, who went one pick after him last year, is going even further back. And I really like Tanaka. He's got some of the same problems. You know,

the home run ball really hurts him. But he's a guy that I I just think that has a skill set and Okay, maybe you're not getting off out of him, but I think he's one of the most undervalued pictures out there. And I think that's probably one of the bigger takeaways here, Greg is basically with Burios, if you're playing the fifteen team league, you're taking him in the fifth round. Castillo in a fifteen team league, you're getting him in the sixth round. Wheeler you're getting him in

the sixth round. And with her Man Marques, he's more of a fifth round pick. With Burials, so you have Burials and Marquees in the fifth round, and you have Castillo and Wheeler in the sixth round. If you ask me, and where I've kind of been living, is you're getting Tanaka or even a Chris Archer, who I find interesting. You're getting those guys around or two later at times.

Same thing with Shane Bieber. Right, So like, if you like this here and you want one of these guys to be your SP three, you can kind of just wait instead of taking Marquez or Burrios in the in the fifth or even Castillo in the sixth, you can wait like two rounds later and you get Tanaka or Chris Archer or Shane Bieber and the eight as your

SP three. It's just if you really buy that those guys are about to break out, because there's definitely signs like with those four specifically that I put in the poll today, Wheeler, Marques Castillo, and Burrios, there are signs that they're like on the cusp of the breakout again, as we've been talking about specifically with Castillo here, there's also risk, there is and I want to get into Burrios a little bit deeper because well, Burrios has even

to a larger extent than Luis Castillo had. This is a former top prospect, right and we cannot quit former top prospects and believing what they can become. And that leads that all leads you to Buyron Bucks and the teammate of Ze Barrios, who's hit all these home runs in the sprain as all these r b ey's whatnot, and people continue to jump in on him probably earlier than they should. Joze Barrios, we have waited and waited

for him to become a legitimate ace. We have seen signs in certain months over the last several years that hey, he can become that ace. That's why you get in on him at his current a d P. That's why you don't potentially wait on a Shane Bieber Pavetta that tear rather than taking Burrios now right like that is the quadr you find yourself in. So when we come back, man, I want to ask you you've answered that question. Can Jose Barrios become and ace a guy that you're taking

much earlier next year? That's why you're taking where he is, because you believe you can become that guy. Is this the year it all comes to fruition for Jose Barrios That Modica answers that next, Daily Rodo dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you advice. We play every day, all major sports, all

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the drugs, alcohol and bad influences. With the f m l A, people can take a leave of absence from their job and still keep it. Call now and learn how we can help you. Eight six six four eight four nine six two one eight six six four eight four nine six to one. That's eight six six four eight four ninety six one scout Fantasy sports with Harper. It's a lot of unfilled potential. So far. He's only really had one huge fantasy season. His average is all

over the map. That's the biggest problem. He was to forty nine last year. Just look at these last five years to seventy three, three thirty to forty three, forty nine. So where is the real Bryce Harper? Week days to four bm Eastern on the Fantasy Sports Network and on your popular podcast providers Sickness going around the office right now, Frank, good thing you're you're at home in Jersey. Everyone everybody's calling out. Everybody's a little bit of snow on the ground.

Nobody wants to come toward. I gotta get your opinion here because we're talking about this during the break. And I've long been a fan of facial hair, and I've been trying to get Greggy out here growing some facial hair for a while now. And I gotta say, Greggy, I am loving the scruff man. So I am loving the scrus So I'm so have you brought this up to Frank because I planning them bringing it off obviously, So I have not shaved it over a week at

this point. And then the neck it is clear, you know, making it cleaner. It looked no, so I recorded. So when I was recording the videos this morning, I looked at myself in the monitor. It's very good time and I can go to my eyes. So um, So I was looking at myself in the monitor, monitor, moner, it is okay. Finally, So I was looking at myself in the monitor and I was like, you know what, I don't really see much. It doesn't really look anything's going

on here. There's really a munch of a difference. I noticed it. I noticed it in person. Do you we got a little five o'clock shadow a little bit, Maddie, what do you think Should he keep it? Should he grow it out? I planned on shaving it, like if I didn't like how it look, I was gonna shave it tomorrow morning. No stop, Greg, It's it's time for something for a little while. It's gonna be called this week.

I like a little scruffy it. I'm just lazy, but I'm not down with all these you know, beards and stuff like that. Be honest with you, Well, what do you think of Mark in Madiemo? Is it all right? What do you think? You're just very clean right now? Clean? Yeah? He usually isn't that bad. I mean, you don't have one of these ones that are growing out and like, you know, like stuff. And look how look how that worked out for Dallas doesn't even have a job, doesn't

even have a job. It's probably because of the beard. I think, Yeah, I got this, So there really questions. I'm gonna sake tomorrow and I'm seeing Judy's parents tomorrow night. Don't do that. So we told me, I don't know what they do. I'm kind of interested to sure they do. I'm not sure. I'm not sure what I'm gonna do yet. I kind of like I might give it a little while longer, just to see how I like it. I liked and then and then at some point we'n shave

it all off. Obviously I'm not. It's not gonna be like deep I can't handle that. How about keep it through auction night. We're doing auction next year. That's a long time. So we're doing We're doing the g d D auction next Thursday night. We actually still have to have our mandate where we do we plan out our oction. But we kind of talked about it, but we talked. We talked more this series. Yeah, we talked. I want to give the regulations to uh Frank Stamfel here. He's

gonna be participating in the NFBC main event. What time is What time is that? That is Saturday the six at one pm, Stewart I will be there. We're gonna be broadcasting. I'm covering the event. Oh, there you go, so you can rip my team on the air. I mean, great fun to play with the big boys. What I have to talk to you? I want to make you go on Friday, probably so you're not gonna go Friday. Maybe I'm let me both of us go. Is that

a thing? Like? Definitely we're officially broadcasting Friday thirty and Saturday at one. Okay, I mean, yeah, you guys have the super auction and I probably can't. I'll talk to you and Mike off the air and figure out how to do this actually all right anyway, because I think because on Saturday, might want you to go Friday and I'll do the VANDUL stuff from here, you know what I mean. Just figure out how to balance that? Would

I have a co host? Yeah? You do? You do, Brad Ziegler for readably picture will be covering the covering it, covering it with us. Just piss appel over there as well, covering with us. Oh nice. Yeah, we're not going on. We got a little party going on stuff, all right.

So before we hit the break, I brought up Jose burrias a guy that we're still waiting on to to really be an east And we thought a lot of people thought we could see that jump last year, and after a month or so we thought he did came back down to earth and he gave the splits a little while ago. Matt, Josie Burrios Frankie has ranked one spot higher. You said the Louise cast is this the year of Burrios puts it all together, and even a Burrios guy in the past, is this the year he

puts it all together? Or is what we see what we get with this guy? No, I think he makes the step. I think he takes that next step. I think I have right there with Frankie and I just I think everything is coming. Everything is the stars or a larning like to say, he went from a D the previous year that he put up a hundred nine last year. The strikeout rate increased. You look at the swinging strike percent, which all so increased and confirms the

growth in that area. So that's that's a really good thing. The walk rate stayed the same, but it was really key is the first pitch strike went from just below two I think just under that's a that's a nice jump upward. Uh. The X fit and the E r a aligned. So that's another sign looking, you know, everything starting to can you know culminate? I guess is the word of I was. There's actually a different word I was looking for, but it's not my mind front section.

But even the sierra is right there. So you have all these things coming together. Then, like we stated that the road starts have been a big bugaboo. Uh. You know, hopefully now another year of maturity, I think you can tire some in that second half he made that jump. I don't think he was that sharp, and I think the UH, I think the stats paid for that. So I said, I really like the four uh. There's a lot to like with them. Nothing's a guarantee here, but

I'm gonna place a bet on Burrios. I like Burrios too as well. I don't really like the price right now. You know in these fifteen team drafts, he's going in the fifth round. But look, you have to pay for talent, and I think last year we saw some of that talent come to fruition. The skills getting better, as Maddie Moo mentioned, career high in swinging strike rate with eleven point two percent, the first pitch strike rate, as Matt mentioned, jump by five percent career high sixty four and a

half percent. I mean that was kind of something that was that hurt burials before is you know he's falling behind in counts. Now he's getting ahead a little bit more throwing those first pitch strikes. And he also had a career high Chase rate right around our thirty three percent. So it seems like everything's there right like a hundred and ninety two innings pitch last year. It looks like he's taking that step into like workload. He can handle

an ace type workload for a starting pitcher. Now, Uh, the swinging strike rate eleven percent career high is good. It's not Luis Castio level good like Luis Castillo is. You know, thirteen and a half percent is up there with like Noah cinder Guards of the world, like the top fifteen starting pitchers in the league. But I do like that Burials is trending in the right direction obviously.

I think really what he needs to work on here, Matt, and maybe you can speak to this as well, is Burrios throws a four team and a sinker with that curve slurve. I mean you've seen gifts of Jose Burials pitch. I mean that breaking pitch is nasty. He needs to continue to develop this changeup. I think that is the

that's that's the pitch that he needs. It's similar to Severino right right when we talked about this last week with Severio needed to develop that changeup and he worked I believe it was two off seasons ago with Pedro Martinez to help develop that pitch and it's turned into a serviceable third pitch. That's what Jose Burrios needs. He needs because if you do just fastball and you know that slurve curveball pitch that he has you come from,

you become a little bit too predictable. As nasty as the pitch can be, if you're just a two pitch picture, that's going to hurt you. As he starting pitture, he needs to continue to develop that changeup. So that's something that I want to watch about the spring here to see if he's working on it, if it's working out well, because if that's something that he can carry over into the regular season, a developed changeup, then I think we can see him take that next step into turning into

like a Luis Severino type picture. But he needs that third pitch. What do you think? Man? Yeah? No, I in my starting picture preview for the Athletic on the Jji Barrios, right up, I did hit advocate continue? Okay, uh, well done? Something he did? I did right? He needs to concentrate on that curve, slur whatever you want to

call it and he needs to correct the change. I totally agree with Frank here, but this is the big step is if he gets over pitch this year, the strikeouts will be there just in volume alone, and as the swinging strike improved last year, you know you could be looking at some really good things from this guy when he's on. You've seen the talent, so you know it's there. It's being able to do it over the

course of the season. We're talking about Modica from the athletic and give up with both of you guys have said here to me, out of the crew that you just named, Franking the pole of Marquez, Burrios, um Castillo, Zach Zach Wheeler, I feel like, and I don't think he has a disagree like, he's the one that you jump into that next here has the best chance I'd say jumping into that next here and the other guy. Is that reasonable? It's a little bit of a different

question than you asked. You're talking about based on a VP, do you think he has the best chance to go to the next here? Actually, I have Zach Wheeler ranked the highest of all these. Really, yeah, I have Zach Wheeler inside of my top twenty, which might be aggressive, but and I heard some of the things that Matt mentioned um when we when he mentioned Wheeler earlier on. I mean the bad bit at the home run, the fly ball ratio during that stretch last year it was low.

But I think the x fit is kind of something that you could pay attention to there and maybe expect something like that. Because his final eleven starts he pitched to a one point six eight e r A, but he had a three point four seven x tips, so I believe he could be a sub three point five zero uh pitcher in terms of e r A with you know, I think the whip be good. I mean,

the walks came all the way down last year. I mean the walks were I believe, you know, like two point seven walks per nine last year, whereas you know that was consistently over three. This was someone who had had actually struggled with with command in his career, so like he was getting people to chase more during that eleven star stretch the final eleven games he was nine and one then, uh he was getting ground ball all rate, limited hard hit rate to cent so he's inducing a

lot of sold contact here. Uh. He he introduced a new pitch, Greg it was he was throwing this, uh the splitter, which he only threw it about like six eight percent of the time last year, but it had a nine percent with rates. So this is something that I talked about where if you see someone at a new pitch, and especially you know over the second half of the season, he upped that usage up to around

eight percent. I mean, even if that comes up a little bit more this year, he throws that splitter ten percent at the time to year, and he's getting a whip rate around. This is a tangible change that Zach Wheeler made to his arsenal last year that made him a better picture. Um the swinging strike rade. It's not really adelite levels, you know. I just think I think he can be a Jamison ty One type picture. Jamison ty One is going two rounds earlier, Jameson Taylan is

going in the fourth round. Like, I think a lot of people are drafting tie On this year because they feel he's safe. I don't know that anyone believes that he's gonna give be like a ten k per nine kind of guy. I think he's gonna be between like eight and a half and nine case per nine. I think Zach Wheeler could do something similar. I think Zach Wheeler could be a sub three five e r A. I think that's kind of what we're respecting out of

Jamison Tyoon as well. So I don't know that he has like this huge, immense upside, but I do think that he can jump into this tier with like these sp two type guys who are being drafted in the you know, fourth round, because like tyn Flaherty and Clevinger are all going in the fourth round right now of fifteen team drafts. Zach Wheeler, you're getting two rounds with later quite consistently in these drafts. I think he can be on the same level of those pictures. So that's

why I haven't ranked that same toyear. He's top twenty for me. Now, you give a lot of good stats before about Zach Wheeler and when he did a comparative leader Louise Castillo. What do you think about him this year? I mean, I have him right behind Bars and Castillo, and like Frank said, the control. Look, the key thing is not giving back any of those games in in that area. He lad qualified uh hitters in MLB starters. Excuse me, on a hard hit percentage, and it was like,

which is which is pretty amazing? Right there? There is a lot to like with him. I agree with Frank, you should always look at X TRIP. I don't even look at FHIP. I'll be honest with you. PHIP is something I don't pay a time I look at X FHIP. If I want to look at Sierra, I'll look at that, and there is tons of like the splitter, as you mentioned, I put it's almost at that ten percent range. It's not quite there yet, but if you can get it

there or just above that's that's gonna be key. Because if he can get you know, if he continue to get the swing and mrs with that pitch, adding on to the arsenal the fastball slider, you know, you could really have something nice. I would not be surprised if he finishes as inside the top twenty uh that they would tie on to me. I think certain people I think he's supremely safe. I think he's safe as well,

but to a point, I'm looking more. I mean, I'm more conservative with with my ear A S and stuff. If he pitched two A three six e r A and pitched say two hundred something in is with a hundred ni drac acts. I would sign up for that right now today, as I think that's a hell of a picture. You know, you're really getting something good there. Uh. Some people see the three r A last year from town and they're thinking it's gonna get even better. Not that it can't, but I think that's like the nile

of his projection that you're looking at. So, yeah, there's a really nice range. My point here is I want a pair of these guys with an eight or someone I consider an eight. Is now I have that floor, I have that base, and if they have a month or two where they're like Louis Castillo last year, you know, it makes it a lot easier to be able to sustain it having an ace where if if you don't have that, you're you know, you gotta get volume here.

You need two or three of these guys, and you know you also got to consider when you're before you're sit in that draft room, especially like Frank, it's gonna be his first time in the NFBC main event where am I taking my closure? So now in the sixth round, am I gonna go with or the end of the fifth sixth round. If Barrios, Castillo, Wheeler are all options to him, does he take a brad hand there? Does he take the starting picture? These are gonna be things

he's gonna be confronted with. And I know everybody's saying, just avoid closures this year. You can't just utterly avoid closures in an overall competition like the main event. I'm sorry. You can fade them and then spend your whole time on fab And that's a really tough and I've done it before. It's really tough. It's very time consuming, and you're gonna miss out on like Lawan Soto's of the World, which all your money is getting spent on speculating on closes. Yeah.

Mat made actually a great point on Twitter late last week where he said, listen, you're gonna spend on closer. It just depends if you want to spend your draft dollars, you want to spend your fab dollars, You're going to ultimately spend. So don't think that like you're not taking him in the draft, you're not gonna waste or spend money on them. Later You'll be chasing closes potentially all year. And I thought it was a really interesting point um

by Modica. There you nervous for the main event. My nervous nore. This is I mean, I've always this is what I love to do. I love to I love to draft. I mean, this is the best time of the fantasy baseball season is it's draft seasons. So I mean maybe once I get inside the room, I'll get some butterflies there. I don't feel anything, but I'll be there so I'll make you smile. Yeah, I mean, you gotta bring the pom pomps. And I don't want to make a sign. I probably you probably aren't gonna want

me to do. I was sending text message during you probably gonna want to see that. No, I will not be paying attention. I'll shut my phone off during the draft. What do you think I'm the text you have to answer. Greg Biden, who is my co owner for this draft, will be there with me. We'll be side by. You can't get that. I confused? No, sorry, Greg. If we have an intermission, I'll talk to you then. Is there is there like an intermission for this moody? Uh? After

chen rounds, believe we'll stop. There should be some food provided They better be some food provided do the people covering get people covering the draft get that food. Yeah, you beautiful. I'm just gonna stop. I love it. I love it. That's fantastic. Uh. Maddie move is right about this though, Like when it comes to closer, especially if you're competing for an overall, if you're playing in a rodal league, like, you can't completely fade closing, right, So

you have to make decisions. And you know, if you wanna if you want to get one of these starting pitchers, you want to get a Castillo or Zach Wheeler, you want to take one of those guys in the sixth round on, then you're probably forfeiting your chance to take a Brad Hand or a Roberto Osuna or you know

one of these top level elite closers that Matt mentioned. Uh, And then you're probably looking a little bit later on, maybe you're taking to do little round seven or you know, I know in the Great Fantasy based plementation, will I end up with? Wade Davis is my first closer in

round nine? It's not ideal. I don't love it, but I think his job security is pretty good there in Colorado, so you know, he's one of those top fourteen fifteen closures where I actually feel all right about his job security. I mean the numbers might not be great, but he's still gonna give me, you know, thirty five plus saves. That's what I expect. So you have to decide when

do you want to take that first closure. You want to take it in around six or around seven, and you're probably not gonna get one of these starting pitchers. If you want to take it in around nine, then you can wait a little bit. Maybe you get like a Kirby Yates, or you get a of Way Davis. You get one of those guys that's your first closer, but you're not gonna feel as safe as that, Or take that closed early on around six and then you end up getting one of these and we'll talk about them.

Archer to knock. You get one of those guys in around eight around nights. So you gotta have to wait, Like which combination I like better? Don't want to get this closer in the starter? What do I want to get you know, Wheeler and k STO and then take a closure later on? Like these are all decisions that you kind of have to think of before the draft. When we come back, I have a bit of a keeper deliver you know it. I want to ask Matt

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podcast provider. All right, we're back with you here Fantasy best friends forever. And then I have a bit of a personal dilemma here of what I need to do as a keeper. So in my league, I'm keeping four guys, one of them being non Arnado. Fine, that's not part of the story. Head right is head to head categories. That's correct. Keeping No. One hour Nas that's one of my keepers. I have Blake Snell in the I'm going to keep Blake Snell. Now I have two more spots

for three guys, to which are starting pitchers. Obviously Franks will pine on this a bunch of ready. I could keep Wheeler in the ninth, I could keep Corvin in the eleven, I can keep Justin Turner. In which two of those threes will you keep? I'm gonna be honest, I'm a Rhodo guy, but hed to head an know how important pitching is. Yep, I'm definitely keeping Corbin. Okay, I like the move to Washington and I like that ball. So it comes down to Wheeler or Turner correct and

it's and it's a keeper. Yes, I mean j T. I mean I love that bad. I really do. Mm hmmm. For the keeper aspect, I'll probably go Wheeler and the head to head pitching thing. I think in this format you can you can keep Wheeler, throwback Turner, and maybe get Turner. I'm gonna take that gamble, and that's that's

completely fair. And I've been leaning towards keeping just Justin Turner as the guy because he's so good in the head to head four and basically what amounts to a points leave with some of our categories, and he's he's amazing, he's absolutely fantastic in it. But Frank's like, I think you should just keep all three pictures. You grab one more picture early and then you know the worry about

pitching for a very long time. So Franks saying, keep Wheelers, Snell, and Corvin, draft an ace, and you get your first four starting pitchers and don't look back. That's what Frank just kind of like that. I definitely like that that theory. I mean, come on, I knew matt Emo was gonna agree with me. But it also helps to know that you have the first pick and have to keeper league. But Mookie Bets is being thrown, so you're taking Mookie first.

At your two or three turn, you'll probably grab another starting pitcher there. But given the fact that it's a keeper league and every twelve teams to keep up to four players, there's already forty eight pictures, not just pictures. There's so you know, I do that you're not gonna you're not gonna get a great I don't know who you're what's starting picture you're gonna get there the two three turns, I don't know, you might get like actually

one of these like tie Own, like maybe Clevinger. You know what, I have a so I have an idea of who I will get. You give me a second. It's all right, Greig, take your time live radio live. But if you do what bets. I think you know, having those three pictures and they head form. Lets you already have the third basement in arrea not so you don't. I think that kind of makes it easier to throw justin turner back, like do you play with a corner infielder? Nope?

Utility though, so he would be all right, well you know we have we have we have two utilities to be fair, not as big of a need because you already have the third base. Alright, So I think this is the right document that i'm opening. Yes, okay, So the picture that I'm looking to on the board, I'm

expecting to be if Walker Vieweller. If it's not Walker Bueller in the top picture on the board, give or take, is James Paxton, Steven Strassburg, Zactdrinky Jamison Tyan like that tier Okay that maybe look if well, how is Walker Bueller? How many people can keep four? Keep four? The guy that has Walker Vieweler's a lot of people to keep if it's very impressive, not gone, he might not, might not. But my point is Buller the keeper league Bueller is

gonna let how many twelve? I don't know, it's very close it's very close. Definitely take him if if you were obviously you want to take a starting pitture, like if I'm just like ranking those guys with James Paxson is the highest rank wealth of bombs, and you're gonna have back to back pitch here at the two three tone.

You know, maybe I'm gonna said the head points thing is not my game, but j because I just know how good that Pat hasn't roto let alone, you know, in real life, So then maybe I would go with turn it if you really have a possibility of a Bueller at a Paxton right there, and then you've got three hitters and four pictures, so I don't know, alright,

so tough, okay, fair enough? Um I mentioned Patrick Corbyn and he's I believe the fifteen pitcher off the border, so um, yeah, he's happen up now with Yeah, yes, you're absolutely right, he's the fourteen now right after Bueller and Sindergarten. He's not right after, he's eleven picks later, but he's the next pitcher up an NFBC ADP. And that's kind of where we left off yesterday. I realdn't really get into Patrick or Friday. Rather, we don't really

get into Patrick Corbyn. Um like the top right, So Patrick Orbyn is good, good ones to kind of jump off to. Now, Matt and Corbyn, you said you're you know, on him this year with the move to Washington. Now you look at all some of the advanced numbers, they're all pretty good With Cordy. I think we all kind of waited for it to fall off with him. Didn't happen last year. How come you're jumping back, you know,

Patrick Corbyn this year? I mean I think maybe you know, realistically, I mean, if he did just three r A, I'm totally fine with that. Uh. If he can you know, withstand and repeat with the innings, you're gonna get a ton of strikeouts as well. Look, you only have to have him for one year. The Nationals are on the hook for six years, so you know it's a totally different, uh mindset. There is just slide is one of the best pitches in all of baseball. We were waiting for

him to really make stat the injuries and stuff. It finally came through fruition and I, like I said, I'm not pray, but he pitches two D strike apps something like that should win a bunch of games too in Washington. Something just doesn't feel right about. I liked him last year too, but now you're paying the premium for him because he's going in the fourth round. So now you have to pay up for what he gave you last year. And it was a contract year. I'm not saying, you know, oh,

it's contract year. There's no way he can come close to what he was doing last year. But you know, the velocity kind of like dipped, and I know it came back towards the end of the season in terms of the fastball velocity. But you know, a lot of some things that I've read about him was that his slider, according to FanGraph pitch values, was the best slider in baseball last year. And you know he threw at forty one percent of the time, so I mean he throws

this pitch a massive amount of time. He's his swinging strike rate was fifteen point six percent last year overall amongst all his pitches, his pitches, that was the second best in baseball behind Max Scherzer. So that he actually gets to go to the Nationals and learned from a

guy like Max Scherzer and Pitchel inside him. I understand those things, but I just don't know what made the slider so good last year, Like in terms of a lot of things that I've read is that the pitch ultimately didn't change all that much except he just threw it like fourteen percent more time, like it was what's up.

But what happens to is, you know, the more he's throwing that fourteen percent at the time, and it's auditioned by subtraction, one of his lesser pitches, he's eliminating fourteen percent at a time to say, So that really does play like I think you know when piget your starts to harness and you should say a lot of these slide bulk slider curve guys, you know, really focusing on that.

I thin think it's auditioned by subtraction. The more where you use a better weapon, and unless you use something inferior, the better you're gonna bab I hear you. It kind of makes sense. I hear you on it. But the herd the hard hit rate was also really high last year to like forty seven was second in baseball behind my guy Cole Hamile's. So I don't know. Something just seems off about him, like maybe it's just like like an intuition thing kind of. I don't hate him. I

still have him ranked like inside my topic. Yeah, but I feel like whenever he's the top, you don't go in his direction. I have him as SP eight teen, so I have him just Clevinger, tay On Flaherty. I don't know, I feel like you're paying up. I like Corn better than those guys. Yeah, I know a lot of people do. I don't think he's gonna be on my team at that price. It's fine, that's fine. Um in this tier though, Matt, you heard some names just now from Frankie. But the name I don't want to

bring up before we get into a Paxner time. Even more is his teammate Steven Shotsburg, who I think it makes a lot of sense in this area. Shotsburg is the guy that, as we said last week, frank he wasn't that the gram synderguard bum Garners here last year and then he got hurt kind of as he always tends to do. You're getting Shotsburg now around pick sixty one. He's the eighteen pitcher off the board directly by I'm

Paxson in town. But I think you can probably make an argument that it's Strasburg below is a little bit earlier than them. Meanie, are you you know Steven Strasburger, this you met at its price? I am, yeah, I understand it's pretty much every year you gotta deal with this, uh, you know, injury and stuff like that. The fastball velocity was concerning that a dipped when he came back. He did focus more on the changeup, which is his money pitch.

But remember one thing, Strasburg and I've been chasing this dragon for years, the peripherals, the area indicas just two good year in a year out. But remember one thing. He's one year removed from what a fantastic season, the reason we were all drafting him earlier. It's a major headache. I get some people don't want to deal with it, but I mean the talent is there. You're not paying a premium price anymore. Look, you're still paying you know,

early fifth round price, which is expensive. I'm not saying it's not, but you're not paying that second or third round. So if he's my number two, I'm gonna take that gamble because even if he gives you one fifty one six strikes out a hundred eight batters and three r A. You know what, that's a hell of the picture. I mean after you're hoping you can get from a lot of the other guys that are going to go after Yeah,

he's not gonna be on my team yet. Like the Nats in general, clearly I like Max first round there. Look with Strassburg, it's it just it comes down to the injuries as well. I can't deny the talent that's there. I mean, you know, over ten cas per nine the whip should be solid as well. But he's averaged a hundred and fifty one endings pissed for season throughout his career, he's only gone gone over two d pitch once. I think what Matt said about, you know, kind of projecting

hundred sixty innings, that makes sense for Steven Strossberg. Like something that we did with Will Myers, right is I looked up his his inside injuries page and kind of listed all his injuries. So this was what I had last year from Steven Strotsberg when I looked at his inside injuries page to rotator cuff sprain, great, two ligament sprain, great, to muscle sprain, a C joint sprain, bone contusion, discarniation in his neck. Now I'm not dr a no, but

that does not sound good. That doesn't sound good. If you're a starting pitcher and talked DR about Steven this week, Yeah, we should probably talk to him about Steven Strotsburg and Steve Now Steve. Another thing thing that Matt mentioned was is it this like, is this his his oft injured

altar personality? You know? Um? But you know, something else that Maddiemo mentioned here about him is that the velocity decline when he returned to So another thing that's hard to judge Steven Strotsburg is you can't really judge the skills from when he returns from injury because you don't know if he's pitching through injury. Like it's like you can't even you don't even know when he's pitching whether he's helped right, right, So it's just kind of hard

to trust. You know what, I thought that you would coming into this draf Secene. I thought you would have got more of a discount of Strotsburg. I thought Strostsburg would have been been going closer to like this Louise Castile range. I'm being perfectly. Honest, I thought it would have been more of like a sixth round pick. But

he is going in that fifth round range. He's going right after like pax Stone and all these other guys, and you know, right around the Barrios range in the fifth round where you know you can get him as your sp two. I thought you would have been getting more of a discount, to be honest, Well, what I'm interesting in is like as a player, Frank, Yeah, so he's not gonna but what do you when he's out there, he's usually pretty like the rich Hill effect on steroids precisely.

It's like when you know he's gonna only give you a hundred fifty and sixty endings. But when he's out there, when he pitches on a perse start peranning, basically he's gonna be very good. So look, if you want to take him, that's fine, Like you know what you're gonna get out of Strasburg, and if he ends up going one eighty, then you profit a lot on this picture.

But you also you also need to know, like when you're taking him, the pictures that you take after what you can't take a lot of other injury risks after him like you kind of have to build in like and you take Tanaka. Then after that, like maybe you have to leave a few of these guys. Were like, you know you're gonna get any out of them like an arch or or like a Jose Acontana or something like that, where like you're gonna have to get anyings from somewhere, you know what I'm saying. So like it's

kind of like a roster construction thing. What were gonna say, Man, No, I think you said that perfect roster construction. But I mean the case when him is the case with James Paxson. I mean, James Paxson has top five stuff in the league. If the Yankees get a hundred and eighty innings or more out of James Paxton, that is a winfull of riches for any fantasy owner that gets him in whatever the middle of the fourth round or something like that. And if you had, if you drafted an Ache, then

you have two aces on your team. As I said, once again, does not come without risk. But that talent is you know. That's but the point you made, I think is imperative when you take guys like this. Later on you argue to you guys a Jose A. Kontana becomes a more valuable asset to you because you know you're gonna get a hundred eighty innings out of him.

Actually write an article on the Athletic matt that where where Nando was kind of like pulling all these writers and stuff and they they talked about when Jose Cantana came back last year, or like he did something. He moved himself on the rubber, like this is what I'm talking about, where he made a tangible change and his final twelve starts he pitched like a three six e r a with like awe strikeout. Now, that's closer to

the Jose Kanana that we've seen throughout his career. So he made a change and he got better because of that change. So these are things that like I pay attention to that where Okay, I am a little bit more apt by Jose Kantana now, whereas earlier on in the draft season he was kind of just an afterthought. I think I got him in the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation as my fifth starting pitcher. You get Jose Cantana as your fifth starting pitcher. I feel pretty good about that.

So those are type of things where I'm looking at, where if someone made a change to where they were pretending on the rubber or to adding a new pitch. I mean, I know that was something big that Mike Florio, our guy, looked into a Blake Snell heading into last season, was that he changed where he was pitching on the rubber or you know, it was something along those lines where like a mechanical change, he did something differently and he got better in a second half two years ago

that carried over into the next season. These are kind of like the little things that when you're splitting hairs you need to find these kind of things that make a picture stand out differently than other pictures going in their range. Was going to chime in there. I figured

I'd step back for the second. No, He's French, right, Yes, change things that you can look to, whether it's on the rubber, whether it's mixing up the pitch, mix throwing one pitch more, uh, discarding another picture that has not been effective. So I mean, these are things you really do need to focus on. And look at what Blake Snow did when he came back in August. He changed up his repertoire. I mean, you look at look at the the percentage of pitches he threw and how he

threw them. So I mean, even when you're good, there are things you can get better at. And but even if can Tana pitched to a three NB year, right, if he gave me those innings, if you're taking risk of your guys earlier, to Frank's point, you do need to fill them in with these guys that will give you anings and could be under four R Mattimo, we only have like a minute left here with you with James. With James Paxson, the home runs went from nine seventeen

to twenty three last year. Now he moves over to Yankee Stadium, Is that something that you worry about? Yeah, the long will is worried some. The fact that he's left handed and I think helps him out in that park. But I'm always getting bet on the talent here. For me, the main concern with Paxton is the health. It's not the ballpark I'd prefer him to be pitching in Safego, the fact that I don't like the Yankees number one head number two, but he should get a bunch of

four wins with that team. So over the past three seasons, Greg James Packson three five two year grade one point one six with that's that's the top five team. Start me Moodiga, follow him at CTM Baseball and webody has to say at the Athletic Manics appreciate time. We'll do it again next week. Thanks gentlemen. Absolutely with data break whatever series dext