March 1st, Hour 1: Starting pitching previews, DeGrom risk, and more...

You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network, Fantasy Best Friends Forever. M Do Do to Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do? Yeah? This Yes, the Fantasy Best Friends Forever. You're the Fantasy Sports Radio Network alongside Frankie Staffle. I am Greg Susman. Gregg A Happy Friday. You're gonna talk starting pitchers today. I mean it's gonna be a long, grueling process, gonna start the process of talking about starting pitching.

It's probably gonna be like a three part series here, maybe even longer, who knows, but very excited, Greg, Yeah, it should be fun. Are you doing? How do you sleep last night? That is great that it had been to me. Oh I slept great? Did you yeah, I told you a little bit. That's out of my couch. Woke up in the middle of the night. Yeah, I slept her, I slept okay, Um, I like four forty two, specifically two. I woke up like the clock and I'm just like, I am awake now, I don't I'm not comfortable.

I feel like gross, weird night Fromania. He's wearing the male ugs though, Yeah, that's definitely happy. Yea. The snow on the ground here in New York. Honestly, dude, I walk into freaking blizz this morning. I'm sorry. You get up later. Yeah, it was it really a blizzard, Greg not, Yeah, but it was snowing. It was snow. I didn't like wearing because it was every excuse to get his male uggs on. I'm not upset. I'm not shame by it.

It's great. I mean, there's a lot of snow on the ground, I be fair, not really there is probably not even dude, I'm telling you, I'm not making that up. I think you're making it all right, that's what you think. It's fine. On the program today is Frank said, staring pictures right into it, top tier, right into it. We're gonna be joined from picture List. From at picture List, it's our guy, Nick Polk. Nick, welcome to program. What is happening? Thanks so much for having me today. I'm

really excited to be here. Have you enjoyed our opening of It was great? You know I got to peer out my window and see some snow today. It was like a blizzard. I have to say, if it's anything, it's a blizzard here. Nick. Thank you. I don't you know, I'm a big fan of picture list our guy Nick Pollock on Twitter, but already starting off on the wrong foot here. He's right, Nick, let's ask you Nick night, how did you? I had a fantastic sleep. That's good.

You know, it makes really it makes one of us. Nick, That's fine. A right? Uh? You said all the show today. We're to dive into starting pictures over the next hour, and you're the guy to do what you follow him at picture List and you're doing a fantastic job breaking all of this down and hopefully you can help us, um, you can help us kind of decide things as we debate all of these starting pictures. We've gone through every

single hit or category and never starting pitchers. We're getting relievers of course next week, we assume the starting pitchers gonna take us a while to get to UM, so we don't really have a limit on it per se, but we're gonna do the best we can. Sounds great,

I mean this is what I do. This is uh I talked starting pitching every single night, every single doesn't get boring, never never, There's always something to talk about, like it's never ending, right, So like again we're gonna talk about some of the top tier guys and you know, we're splitting hairs with some of these guys obviously, but

but then we're not. But look, it's an interesting time, right, Like I tweeted out, there's like an awesome amount of like names that are just going today, like in spring training, like super intriguing dudes from you know, let's see what Madison Bumgunna does this time around, because he got blasted his first time around, and he's a hot topic of conversation. You know, he slept super far in my uh my

great Fantasy Baseball mutation. But they're like Michael Panietz on the Mount today, like Nick Kingham, John Gray, Aaron Sanchez, like Justice Sheffield. There is an infinite amount going on right now in terms of starting pitching both you know, for fantasy baseball and then in spring training. So look, it's never ending. So that's why that's why Nick is

able to talk about it every single night. Greag actually actually this morning and before every single spring training day, I tweet out the pictures that are gonna be starting for the day, and that's what we should be looking for, at least the ones that we can see on TV. Yeah, So like today, Nick Kingham law time was apparently ninety four, and that's really cool because last year he was topping out in ninety nine and see him sitting there, Oh,

that can nearly exciting me. Of Sheffield going today, we have Kintana hopefully is that two. We have engine Ru Maybe that change up is back again. Robbie raised there, Maybe the curveballs were working. They'll be great. There's so much stuff to talk about and it's just spring training, so I never get bored. This is starting pitching, the best position in fantasy baseball and the best fantasy sport. So I'm ready to do this if it's the best

position in fantasy baseball and in any fantasy sport. In YadA, YadA, YadA. Max is the best picture in fantasy baseball, he's the best picture in real life baseball. NFBC. He's going off the board number four. Can you make an argument that he should go off the board number one? No? I mean, okay, I'm I'm someone who preaches this A lot is wait

a ton on starting pitching. I think I think entering two thousand twenty, we're gonna be talking about it being the year of starting pitching depth next year because we're not realizing how much stuff there is this year. I personally just gonna go for paths. That's why I did the other great fantacy based moremitational. I think I got Subbarino in the third round and then waited until Zach Wheeler at pick for my second guy, and I will not be going after shows. I don't think there's that

necessity that a lot of people think there are. There are more, uh, there's more talent in the pool than uh than that. You don't need to go off to shows. Number one, Why not go for trout and bets. Your offense is gonna be so good just with those guys. You don't need shows or to anchor that staff. Look, I agree with you. Look you can't make the argument, Greig. I know he just wanted to be baseball. He should be going, you know, in the middle of the first round.

I think his ADP is adequate right now, maybe even a little high. But you know, really, once you get Trout and Bets off the board, I think you can make an argument for like and different guys that should go between like three and twelve. You can make the argument for any one of those guys, and I don't think that you get killed for it. Like again, you can make an argument for Jose Ramirez at three, Yellow Akunya Max Sers, or if you really wanted to Nolan Arronado,

like you could. There's a lot of different ways you could go once those top two guys off board. But I agree Max Chers, there should not be in that conversation, like even in points leagues where I think pitching is even more important, especially like in my league's like the top starting pitchers outscored the top hitters. I mean we should probably like bring that range closer, Like starting pitcher

shouldn't be outscoring hitters as much as they are. But even in that like format and head to head points, I'm still taking trout and bets over maxers tend ultimately, I tend to agree, and you know I said to

ask the question. Then we get to a more fun topic, and that's Chris Sale versus Jacob de Graman Frank you, in all of your drafts, you've spoken about this a lot because you were a slaved business position scarce today that you were drafting an outfielder and you're drafting your starting pitcher and you pulled the starting pitchers up the board it than take a position ultimately that you did not want to and it was from your first Best Ball draft all the way through now where you have

hold up Jacob Degram. You've pulled up Chris Sale. We are in March now, this is Fantasy Baseball draft month. We're in March. Officially you have to choose one right now to draft. Who would be Chris Sale or Jacob Degram. Yeah, it's super clo close to me. Again, this is what

we're talking about with splitting hairs. I worry a little bit more about And I don't even know if it's fair to say, right because like the two years before last year, like Chris Sale had gone over two endings, like each of them, what you just you watch him pitch, and as awesome as he is, you kind of do get scared just because, like as wiry as his frame is,

and you know, he missed time last year. It's like me personally, I still kind of like worried that he's at more of an injury risk than a guy like Jacob Degram. I just think de Gram is safer in terms of the endings pitch. So if I'm choosing one

of them, I'm taking to Graham. And you know, we've said this about some of the hitters, like Christian Yellows that's going in the first round Jose are Mira, is that even if they regress a little bit from their numbers last year, they could still pay off first round value. And I think that's a good way to sum it up with Jacob Agram right, Like he's probably not gonna be as good as he was last year. I mean

he was like historically good. But even if he comes back to a you know, sub three e r A, and you know, the winds should be better because we all expect the Mets line up to be better this year, so he should get a little bit more run support. I think the strikeouts are still gonna be there. For de Graham. So even if the e R A and the Whip like regress a little bit and come back, I still think that he could pay off first round value.

In bestball leagues, I'm more apt to take starting pitching early and get those those anchors and those guys that are gonna give you any's pitched just because it's best ball. Like you're not gonna be able to make moves once the season starts, so it's a little bit different there.

I'm definitely gonna want to try and get like one of these A starting pitchers, but I've kind of feared off a little bit in terms of, like when I'm doing these Rhoto drafts, I really do like that tear that you know, Paul Nick brought up about like Severino, I think, you know, if I could get two of the top starting pitchers, I think I'm all right with that. And that's kind of like what I did in my great fantasy based plantation I ended up with I didn't

take a starting picture until around three. It's like Walker Bueller and I just followed it up with James Paxson in the fourth round. I'm all right with that, Like, as long as I get two of the top, like the fifteen twenties starting pitchers. I think I'm cool with that, So I'm not I've kind of like veered off of I don't think I have to have an ace like at the back end of the first round. There's so

much hitting talent there too. Like trying to tell you, I was trying to tell you fifteen range like Aaron Judge and Jarcarlo Stanton and Alex Bregman and all these guys that are going in that range, it's kind of hard to argue against just like picking up two of those guys absolutely, And there's That's what to answer your question, long answer, it would take the ground over Christal all right, to go back to you, Nick answer Frank's long and

whitey answer to grub Verse to Sale. If you're taking one of these guys, I know you can send you winning a pitching so you're not bring them up the board either. But if you feel or whoever's drafting fields are the best guy on the board, which one would you take? Chris Sale? Jacob de Gram? Now I'll be taking Jacob to Graham as well. Um, I think we do need to consider the fact that the Red Sox will be in a winning situation again and they will

be able to baby Chris Sale in September again. I that is really concerning to see such a massive drop in velocity during the season, and we do have to take that into consideration. If you're going for a starter at the beginning of your drafts, it's about the floor, and I feel a little bit more comfortable with the GRAM. However, if you're talking about the quality of innings, if you say that it's two undered innings each for Sale and

the GRAM, I'm going with Sale. But there's too much of a I don't know, a haze around Sale that I need to take to GRAM. Second. Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it to right, Like if you were guaranteed to any pitch of each of these two guys, I agree, Like I think on a perst start ending basis, pitched for Chris Sales, he's going to be better. But I just I worry a little bit more about him getting closer to the two endings,

you know, for reasons that Nick mentioned. I mean the fact that are the Red Sox really gonna need to push him throughout the throughout the regular season. I mean they need him for October like they did last year, right, So I think there's just a little bit more at stake there. I will say, Jacob Degram, I don't think is risk free. This whole talk about how potentially shutting himself down or like limiting his own endings if he doesn't get a contract extension throughout the season. That's kind

of scared me off a little bit as well. I think it's all. I think it's all like leverage, leverage and and so on. Yeah, I mean, look, the thing is, I think you know, when you're considering taking a starting pitcher in the first round drag, you need to consider all of these things, like if you have a report, absolutely like throw it away. So he's just taking all It's just information, right, It's just information, you know, as

good as de Gram and Sale are. I just I worry about the endings um and maybe a slight injury risk and the decreased velocity with Chris Sale a little bit, and then with Jacob to ground, I do worry about

like and potentially you know, limiting his endings or whatever. Um. So that's kind of why I've like kind of backed off taking a starting pitch pulling those guys up to the board where you know you can kind of you can just take two of these like so called aces like I think, I think you know is an a while ago. Look a lot of it comes down to roster construction too, because in the Great fantasy based prementational Rice Harper felt to me in the middle of the

second round, I had picked eight. So so you know, I take Jose Ramirez first and then I get Bryce Harper in the second round. I didn't want to like take a Aaron Nola or um, you know, pull someone up else up the board there in the second like I wanted Bryce Harper, he felt to me, and that was the best player available in my opinion, So I took him, and then you kind of adjust from there, and you know, you want to get your aces after that, and you know that's what I did with Walker Bueller

and James Paxson. So it's not, as I think concrete that you have to take a starting picture in the first two rounds. Maybe, as I let on early on, fair enough, fair enough, um Nick, I want to go back to you because I think as much fun as that was, whatever, do you have an opinion, I'm just here bashing everybody. I would only just you my bashing Nick. I like Nick. My opinion is like you know me, Frank, I always want to try. I always want to try. You own one of these three players I could. I

don't want to rule that out. But as I've been kind of saying to you towards the end of the first round, in the early second round, there's so many good hitters that I don't want to let them necessarily go. Problem is, you don't know what you're guarantee. If you're guaranteeing me Severino around three, I would let him go out happily. I would happily let them go. I just don't know that I can do that. I like walking away with a hitter and a picture if possible. If

it's not there, it's not there. I'm not going to force it. Like I'm happy to take No. One hour Nado at eight or nine, which is what we've talked about, as an eight or ninth best player on the board, and they come back around and take Artragelog Like I'll

do that if there's no speed there. But like you know what I'm you know what I'm saying, right, And I'm happy to do that rather than force um the gram or sale, because I don't know that the next group is seemingly that far away, and even if they are far away right now, as you sela Jacob deGrom last year, certainly they could enter into that territory. So I don't feel um pressured to get one of these three guy britty guys. But I do feel like it's

you know, it's fine. I don't have a problem with it. Basically cool to answer your question, appreciate it as as little fun as those three guys are. I think what makes the next batch of guys much more fun is well, who goes next? Right in this crew with an a d P According to the NFBC, all within like ten spots of each other, justin Corey Kluber, Our, Nola Garrett hole Like Snell, Trevor Bauer, Luis Savaino, Carlos Grasco man

like all these guys together. So excited to talk to you, Nick Pollock about how you order these guys, why you order them in which way, and when they should be drafted. We're gonna talk about the next you know, ted pictures are so we come back. Fantasy best Friends Forever. Fantasy Sports radio network Daily rodo dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you advice. We play every day, all major sports, all year round.

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and learn how we can help you. Eight six six four eight four nine six two one eight six six four eight four nine six to one. That's eight six six four eight four ninety six twenty one scout Fantasy Sports, which take Harper of Chota Carper, which take Harper gold, Schmian go with Lean Harper, I take Harper over, saying me too, I take Harbow Rail Tube. Yeah. I've never

been a huge old Tube fan, right, John. I think Harker is probably in that eleven to fifteen n Yeah, but you have to know that there's definitely some risk with him. Weekdays to the four BM Easter on the Fantasy Sports Network and on your popular podcast providers through About the Lucky Empie as well woll woll Well Fantasy Best Friends Forever Left it up. Here are the Fantasy Sports Radio Network, Greg Sauceman, Frank Sample, Nick Pollock hanging out.

It's Friday man, So whatever, Nick, we couldn't see you obviously while we're dancing and singing. Did you did you join along there or you just more of a reserve type. No, I was definitely dancing. It was a great time. I want to that's what I do. I want to confirm that Nick was dancing. So Sean Pavon, if you could just hit that again just to just to make sure so we can see it, and he was dancing. I'd appreciate it. All right, Let's let's get Nick on the screen.

Here we go. There, that's what I do. I'm subtle. It wasn't like an out. It was too a little busson right, a little buffing right. It's a little week. It's a little weak for me, even if you're rocketing pretty sick. Joey, Oh yeah, it's um, it's actually lu Casey or for Gazy. Oh that's that's a picture list shirt where we don't know where we're gonna get from Joey lu Casey and to give it night. Is he gonna be a lu Casey? Is he gonna be a Gazy?

We don't know. Martinez. Martinez would rock the crist network. He loves. He used the term he loves Lucazi Fugaz. You gotta tell him that one. Well, you gotta go to picture list dot com slash store and get one. I'm gonna show. I'm gonna show him, alright, picture lists dot Com slash store to get your own Lucas got over there. Oh yeah, have a ton We have tie Owned, which is one of my favorite ones, which is essentially just tie owned with the five zero and it. We

also have uh, fancy football is stupid. I absolutely love that one. You can't spell win with Tillman. That's a classic. We have a couple more than I'm obviously forgetting right now, but live it every day. Oh yeah, that's a great one. That's one of the first ones we made. I love it. I say it every time. I like that. Don't trust a knuckleball some man. Good stuff on here. And one of the most one of the most common phrases you

have on your site is ACE is gonna Ace. Yes, And we are talking about aces that we hope ace really all season long, we're trying to figure out how to break down these aces, which one we like, which one we don't, and the order that we should be drafting them in the next two guys coining the NFBC

or Verlander and Corey Kluber. And yet it's funny because when Frank and I were talking about a strategy for a draft that we're co owning in, I'm like, I don't know about I don't know these guys like agism, for sure, you just expect the decline rather be a year earlier year later that that whole deal, and you're like, what do you do that? Justin Berlander and Corey Gloober So okay, you go the next guys like Aaron Nola. He has his own shirt on pitcher list dot Com.

I like him, So I'm like, all right, I like Nola, Philly great National League. Garrett Cole was amazing last year. Blake Snell's your side. Young Award winner, Trevor Bower is getting so much love, Luis Savria, Macarlos Crasco. I mean, there's a lot of names here. How do you break it down? Yeah, I actually see in the next three guys. It's a pretty easy tear to me. And it's the ones that I do expect to go about two innings with elite strike out stuff, and that's Verlander, Bauer and

Coal in order. Verlander having a fastball essentially be his prime fastball from like two thousand twelve at the top of the line and we're not talking ninety three miles, We're talking ninety five on that pitch, consistently swinging Strake grade of fourteen point five percent last year, which is far and away the best mark he's ever had. In

his career. It's a career mark of ten point five percent swinging strake grade four teen point five, all of a sudden phenomenal, I see a workhorse here, plus of elite strikeout rates. I don't see him, honestly half far off from sale and uh into Grom honestly, and I see what he did last year is very legitimate. So

he is the clear number four to me. Uh And when we talk about the others Klueber, Savarino, Syndergard, etcetera, there's a lot more concern I think they're especially at the two hundred inning threshold than there is with Verlander. I see Trevor Bauer as someone that has been elite for a year and a half now, not a year. He introduced a new slider for him his cutter in two thousand seventeen, the second half had a lot of success there pointed to a possible breakout in two thousand

and eighteen. That's exactly what we saw. I see a guy that can go two hundred innings easily. The only thing that stopped him from doing that last year was a linebacker into his like, so I don't see why he can't do that this year. He's even talked a ton about pushing himself and you know, being Max all the time and one year contracts. This is someone who can give you two two D twenty innings this year

of elite of elite quality innings. And they have Garrick Cole, who obviously I don't really need to say much about his breakout last year thirty four point five percent strikeout rates, two hundred frames. I can see a lot of the same there. It's a little bit more of a risk I think in the ear A department concerning he had such an amazing start of the year and they did slow down a bit after and at home run rate

probably will be around love and percent or so. But I still see him as two hundred plus quality innings, uh, and more of a safer bank than the ones that follow. Yeah. So I am in complete agreement with with Verlander and and Garrit Cole. I know that you're you're kind of you want to do the one year earlier rather than but but Greg, in terms of like everything that you've seen, like velocity still being there, like the swinging strike rate

was ridiculous last year, there's nothing. He's joined Houston and you know, look I'm not gonna do I'm not gonna technically side with Trevor Bauer here, but anyone who goes to Houston, uh, you know they get a little bit more spin on the ball for whatever reason, those curveballs

they are working. So look, Verlander has been ridiculous since he's joined, uh the Houston Astros, and then with Gerrit Cole, like I think for me, he's the next one up, right, Like if you are slightly worried about the age concern with a Justin Verlander, which I am not, but you might be, why don't why not just pivot off to a guy like Garrick Cole who is younger, is on the same team, Like he's gonna get run support. As hard as it is to predict wins, like we think

the Houston a Shops are gonna win a lot of games, right. So, and you know his first year with Houston very similar, Like you see the strike out rate go up, the swinging strikes. He was just awesome, like he finally he put it all together. You know, one of Matt Modiquas guys from last year say this a lot about like, all right, Modica, who are your guys last year? He was in on Garrit Colet. He's been on Aaronola for

a couple of years now. Trevor Bauer is the one that I find a little bit more interesting here, Nick, And look, I can't knock it in terms of the skills, You're absolutely right about the slider. Since he's introduced that pitch a year and a half, algo, he's been awesome. Uh, He's he hasn't topped a hundred and nine innings. Um, he's only done it once. Rather in I hear what you're saying about the line, the liner that he took last year off the leg that kind of prevented him.

But he isn't a contract year, so you have that narrative as well. Like I think if if there's anything that's going to uh to motivate a guy like Trevor Bout, I mean he's like very outspoken, Like you know, he goes on Twitter all the time, he goes on these rants and stuff. There's anything that's going to motivate him. The fact that you know he's playing for a long

term contract coming up. I think that is. But I find the interesting that you kind of you want you want Trevor Bauer and with with the this trio in the second round rather than a guy like Aaron Nolan. Everyone seems pretty excited. So al right, well, two things there about Clubber. If you want to talk about ageism and falling off, he actually has the signs of degradation that you should be worried about, as opposed to Verlander, who doesn't What signs? What what signs are you referring

to here? Yeah, decline, specifically declining fastball and the fact that he lost seven ticks of swing straight right on his cutter. That's really scary. It's still a great pitch, but seeing his secondary stuff that has been supporting a bad fastball for a long time getting worse. It's just kind of will be looking back at it in a year or two saying, oh, yeah, here's a straight decline and we've should have seen this coming. It does make

me scary. I still have Corey Cliber at seven because I think his concerns are not or they're just a lot of concerns after and he just fine, I'll allow it for one more year with Corey Kluber. But if you're going to talk about you know, I don't want to be one year too late. I want to be one year too early. Klueber is actually, I think the one that you should be scared of the most. Um now with Aaron Nola. I actually have been the biggest Aaron Nola fan since like two thousand and fifteen, and

it's burned me obviously until last year. And that's why I actually live every day like it's Nola Day. Is a long time thing on the site. Uh, this is the first year that I'm not on the Aeronola train. I had him at number ten originally, actually now have Sabrino above him at eleven. Uh. There are a couple of things of an Aeronol that scared me. One that

he has had an injury history. Last year was the first year that it was okay, everything was fine, but he has had back trouble in the past as well. I don't like that. I also don't like the fact that he doesn't have the same elite numbers as other guys that we're talking about here. It's a three forty Sierra. On top of that that is uh adjusting to his

expecting home own rates. The fact that the Phillies defense isn't that great and he shouldn't be containing a two fifty one Babbitt being a heavy groundball pitcher that generally speaks to a higher babbit than that. And while he has a towel point five percent swings streaker, which is great, I regenerated k rate and I don't think he takes the leap of being at plus k rate like we

do everybody else in front of him. So it all adds up to maybe sub two inning pitched, maybe a three or so ear Ray with k Ray in a one to one ten whip, and that's great, But I think the other guys have just a higher ceiling without much of a different floor. So that's why I'm a bit out on Nola. It's really weird saying that because he's my boy, uh and uh, but that's just kind of the state of it right now. And I think

that makes sense too. Right. So, when we had Modica on, he talks a lot about price for prop right, like buying not just pictures but players, right that that obviously can profit where you're where you're drafting them right now. So now now, Aaron Nola, you're kind of drafting him based on last year's results, and you know, this is

actually actually an interesting exercise. Nick that you know, I've saw I saw people point this out on Twitter before, is that if you look at the FIP and the ex fifit and si era of Aaron Nola over the past three seasons, it's it's been unchanged. His e ARRA has been all over the place during that span, right. So last year he was two point three seven, the year before that he was three five four, and then

in sixteen he was four seven eight. But his fit has been between three zero eight and three to seven all those seasons, right, and his exit has been between zero eight and three three eight all those seasons, right, So he's probably somewhere in the middle, like he might be closer to his seventeen I think he's a better picture than that, you know, I think he's better than like a three five e r A. He's maybe a you know, a low threes e r A. So I kind of get what Nick is talking about here with

Aaron Nola. And you know the case per nine, uh you know, they're they're nine and a half. But the swinging strike rate was a career high last year in terms of it was twelve percent, So maybe that uh those k per nine the strikeout rate overall comes up a little bit for Aaronola, but he doesn't have the same upside in like a Garrett Cole where he's giving you eleven twelve case per nine, and same thing with Justin Verlander, where you know we've seen those guys go

two under any multiple years in a row. Now, I think it's fair to put Trevor Bauer closer to like the Aaron Nolah, Like if you're really like micro managing this this tier of starting pitching, like in the second round, I think Justin Verlander and Garrett Cole are ahead of both Bauer and Nola. And then I think Bauer is kind of closer to Aaronola, like on a per game basis, he might be better, but I do have some concerns with him as well in terms in terms of getting

the two pitched. He's never done it. Aaronola actually did do it last year. So I think those guys are kind of like later second round, whereas I feel a little bit tad safer with guys like Garrett Cole and Justin Verlander. Again, I mean we're just finding stuff to like split hairs here between these starting pitchers would have interested in trying to figure out is Nick, you had Verlander, Bower and Cole in that tier together. You haven't basically

at four or five and six. He told me that you just told me that Seborino and Nola are ten and eleven. That leaves seven, eight, nine, And I'm trying to figure out who you have there? Are we talking Carlos Carrasco, Blake Snella? What are you thinking in the tier between these guys? So so it's not Carrasco. I'm actually someone that has never drafted Carrasco, say, for I

think of two thousand and fifteen or so. I'm worried about his health, and I think that his overall repertoire just doesn't speak to uh elongated success like the other guys, especially bad fastball, like really bad fastball. Um, but actually I have Suberino above synder Guard. Synder Guard is now at ten, it's Clubber at seven, Snell at eight, Seby nine, etcetera. Um, you do still have Clubber right in that mix despite

the decline we see coming. It's kind of like the tier of all Right, all these guys can be great in amazing, but there are problems that we need to address in question marks that I think honestly. I mean, Frank, you're talking about the concerns of Bauer. Bauer would have had two hundred innings in previous years. He like, he has the ability. It's just that he was bad back then. That was that was literally the reason why he didn't Uh,

he didn't even get full starts. Uh. You know, he had some relief appearances because he wasn't great until he got great, and then pretty much he was just rolling and would have easily gone over two hundred before. For that Liner, I'm not worried about that two hundred innings concerned. Honestly, I'm more worried about it for Nola than I am

for Bauer. Um. But it's talking about the concerns already talked about Clueber a bit about why I think he might take a step back this year With Blake Snell, I mean, there's not much more I need to say than to forty one babbit and eight percent left the base rate. It's really hard to expect those kind of numbers to repeat. And then again that return of nine year ray Uh, maybe that you know, full takeoff is

still underneath three. Yes. At the same time, I also think that the Rays are gonna baby him a little bit. They are definitely one of those organizations that understands the value of a good bullpen or utilizing it a lot. And we saw, especially in the second half, they were just completely easy on Snell. They didn't even let him go deeper into games because he was coming off of injury and they just had no reason to really push him.

So I can see that happen again. And it's a little tougher for me to see two hundred strong innings from Snell than the other guys. But at eight, I mean, he clearly hasn't made with fastballs up, curveball, slider down with a really good changeup as his fourth pitch. Now, I actually you can't see it, but on my wall I have framed uh the strikes one plot of the game he had against the Seattle Mariners on June three, where he has just four steamers elevated and curveballs and

sliders at the bottom of the zone. It's one of my favorite things in my room. So I love his transition. I love his new approach. I really do think it sticks through a lot of high praise here when it comes to Trevor Bauer, I mean, that's one of my biggest takeaways here is how good do you expect Bauer to be in this tire um amongst Verlander and amongst Garrett Cole, and ahead of similar more known commodities essentially um with Aaron Nola, with Blake snell Um and and

certainly Corey Kluber as well. Frank, I know you're not and you gave us a couple of reasons, but if you don't mind going a bit more in depth while you're not as in is Nick probably on Trevor Bauer. I don't. I don't know. I didn't. I didn't say you're out because I don't think you are out, but I know you're not as hot. Yeah, I think it's I hear what you're saying about the the endings. It's just it's it's some somewhat concerns me. Look, he's pitching

for a contract, so I can see that. On a pers star basis, I think he's going to be awesome. I just me personally, the fact that i've seen eyes like Verlander, and you know, maybe it's just like an I think you know, I've seen Verlander and Garrett cold go two under any page before and you know, maybe it's not even fair to say. And that's why we have Nick here to kind of tell us why he does expect Trevor Bauer to kind of get there this season.

So I think it's just I prefer those guys, the Astros guys, and I believe you had them ranked ahead of him as well, Nick, right, like you have the as between them between. But I understand the concerns about Er. I mean to help you out. He had a one on nine whip last year. That's not the sub one that we've seen from other guys. Uh So it's, as you said it yourself, it is splitting hairs. It's okay if people, you know, want to go with Nola instead. I just like the fact that Bauer actually is lower

in ADP. So when we're talking about going after it started maybe in the third round, I've been fortunate to say, Okay, great, cool, I'll take Trevor Bauer often, so it's all right. I feel it's so close that you can wait. It's just an argument to say, just wait till the third round and get Trevor Bauer. You know what's another case for drafting Trevor Bauer is the the division that he plays him, yes, in a center like Aaron Nolan is gonna have to face him. The Mets lineup that we like, the Braves,

the Nationals lineup like not really the easiest division. I mean, yeah, you know, taking a break. We've heard of that. Carlos Crasco. Let's hear bro about Louis Saberina from Nick Pollock. Nick Pollock, put your list continues all of us. Next, the Fantasy Sports Network is hitting you from all angles with the best fantasy sports and betting analysis. You can catch the latest programming on so many platforms. There's no way you'll miss out on any of the award winning programming we

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course at picture list dot com. There you go at picture list dot com to follow h Nick at picture List to just such a great job breaking down all the pictures as we found out today where Frank and I joined the bridge just looked at each other like, as we already think this is Aaron Milo Trevor Bauer thing. That's why we bring him on to make this reeth We are completely just rethinking all of this, and you

have you rethinking about Carlos Carrasco. I wanted to get me to get your your thoughts here on the next guys, unless something else you wanted to bring up some of the pictures we talked about already. Are you good? No, I'm cool with those guys. I mean the Corey Cooper thing is interesting. I think a lot of people are still going to try and buy back in. That's why

you see his ADP where it's at. Where he's he's going in at pick twenty four in NFBC ADP, so he's going in, you know, the middle of the second round, uh in fifteen team drafts. I think a lot of people are still going to try and buy in based on name value. I mean, where do you kind of draw the line, Nick, Like I know you told us

where you rank him. But you know, if you have these concerns, shouldn't we we rank him lower than where he is, Like you know and your teams like is he an active like a player that you're trying to avoid because of like these concerns that you have. Yeah, this is a good question. Um, everyone has a price. Of course I have him at seven because the other guys are about to talk about Snell, Savarino, syndergar Nelo.

They also all have their concerns, and it's just a matter of when I am actually looking to get a starter who is on the board. I don't expect to own Cluber because as you're mentioning name value and the history that Cluber has, they're going to look past the fact that he has lowest swinging striker overall since twos and fourteen, the lowest fastball velocity has had that stepback, as I mentioned before on that signature breaking ball. It's

just all little concerning for me. But at the same same time, he's had five straight years of two specially and he still had a sub three year rate even with those stepbacks last season. It is concerning. We'll say, I think a lot of people forget that it is a twenty six point five percent UH strikeout rate, which isn't the elites that you know, the Reminder and Cole

and that Baruer can have. And yes, he did have a thirty four percent mark into US in seventeen, but I honestly don't think that he'll have another thirty percent strikeout rate in his career. Again, that's the outlier with right exactly if you look down, he's basically been between twenty six and twenty eight percent strikeout rate and every year since except for seventeen when he had that percent

strikeout right like, that is the outlier. I mean, he was absolutely phenomenal in seventeen and there's no debating that. But again, his strand rate that year was nearly eighty three percent. So um, as great as he was, he's a two point to five yar A like his FIP, his x FPCR we're all higher. So that really as

good as Cluber is, I think he's a great picture. Um. I do think that his seventeen was somewhat of an outlier, but but the endings pitched, those are pretty safe when it does come to clublue right, because he's been he's been at least two hundred and three endings pitched for five seasons in a row. I mean in a in an era right now where you know, there's not many pitchers who are going two endings pitched. Um. Clober I

think is probably one of the safer there. So like maybe you give him a bump up in points leagues where like the volume and the endings pitched and the durability is um that obviously helps in Points lee Like the best ability for Points League is availability, like you really you you need you need those guys, whereas in Rhodo it's kind of like how good are you when you're actually pitching. It's like on a perse start like per game basis, it's a little bit different in that regard.

So maybe a bump up a little bit in points leagues, But I agree, like I think the Astros guys specifically, uh and you know now that we're talking to Nick Bauer, Um, I think those guys have more upside on a per star basis, especially with the strikeouts than a guy like Cluber. Yeah, I think that's act Um as well, guys, And I think you make really good points where it's not even

that he's bad. We're Whenny taking right, We're trying to break all of these guys down as best as we can and try to tell you when to draft them, which one to leave on the board, and hope we'll still be there around Um, around the turn and come back around to you. One of those guys can be Louis Sevreno here, and I wanted to get into Louisa Luis Sevreno with the Yankees. Keep harping on you, Frank saying, hey, we can get Savorrena, we can get Saborrena, we can

seering on. I feel like I've gotten you there. We're like, cool, we'll take Sevarrino. Um, you have Sabreno around number nine or ten, Nick, and you have ahead of most Synderguard a head of Walker Bueller, So it sounds like you're pretty in on Sevorreno as well. Yeah, I would say synder Guard, Saberna, Nol are all very very close to me. Um. The fact that I just had sever Arena behind Nola and then leap frogged both him and synder Guard, it's

it's such a conundrument. It's really frustrating because obviously you have that amazing start of the year that was eighteen star arts of sub two ear a k rates, a sub one whip. He was going about six and two thirds per game at that point, which is phenomenal. And then obviously, of course he had that seven start run and when he just could not stop letting up fastballs sorry home runs off of his fastball, and there was

a lot of talk about him tipping. There was talk about his slider not having the same feel, and the more and more I thought about it, I realized that's a seven start sample over two seasons that is making us move away from Sebrena, and that just doesn't seem right to me. And I completely agree, by the way. That's kind of why I'm very much back in because Nick Greg's also a Yankees fan, So I mean, I'm a Yankees fan too, but I don't let it affect

my now. Listen, I'm I'm a Yankee fan. But Severino was just too good in the first half and too good the year before to let seven starts kind of dictate how we feel about him. And I understand that with so many of the hitters we've talked about, we've looked at their second half and said, hey, you can build upon this and you want to do that severy you know, well, you're not to take him as a

tenth picture off the board. Look, second half performance isn't really a direct correlation between like the next year's performance either, Like every everyone remembers that because it's the last thing that they remember seeing from like a picture or a hitter, like, oh, this guy had a great second half, right, it's probably

gonna carry over. Like No, I actually think that there's been studies done and that confirmed that there's really no correlation between the thing, you know, second half performance, unless unless there's something tangible that's being done right, like like like a picture and a different pitch, Like we talked about Trevor Bauer a season and a half now, whereas okay, maybe over the second half he added a different pitch.

I know. You know, something that I've read on the athletic regarding Jose Kantana was that he changed where he was standing on the rubber over his like final twelve starts and he had a three six e r A during that span. Like, these are tangible things. If if a hitter starts hitting the ball harder or lifting the ball more in the second half, like that's what you

can look at. But if not, just okay, every second half is created equal and we need to just take second half performance and carried over into the next season. Like if you look at the skills for Severino over the second half, yes, he had a five five seven e r A and a four nineties slug against like he was getting crushed, but look a little bit deeper and the skills were really not all that different between the first half and the second half. In fact, is

Kaper nine went up, Is walksbur nine went down? Is uh? You know his bat was three seventy nine, so like that was incredibly high, and his strand rate was six, which you know league averages like seventy. So there was a lot of unluckiness involved with Severino in the it's not all you know. I mean, he was still doing things that were on his end that we're not great, that he you know, should be remedying hopefully in the

off season. But if you look at the skills, you can argue that like he was almost better or at least the same that he was in the second half. Um, I don't know what are your thoughts and everything I just threw out there, Nick because this was good. I mean, I like that you focused on the fact that it's not just about second half, it's about the tangible thing and then seeing a change that we can't apply. I

would say this about Sebarrino's struggles in the second half. Yeah, I was talking about seven starts and his fastball got lit up because the slider wasn't as effective. It did exposed the actual weakness in Saberino, which is the inconsistency of his changeup and not having that strong third option. When guys are spitting on the slider and they're not chasing out of the zone means that they can just

sit in that fastball. And that's what happened when he allowed all those home runs, and that's why his Babbitt was elevated because normally those times when they need to be kept honest and not to just sit dead right on the fastball, Now they could and they just those fastballs are inside the zone. So it's really important to see that changeup take the next step, and if it does, then he's the top five picture. To me. The fact that he hasn't well, he took a major step back

in two thousand and eighteen. Overall, with that changeup is the biggest area of concern. At the same time, we're gonna talked about Syndergarten, and I talked about Nola's concerns and Carrasco's concerns, and overall, I think he has the easiest path to rectifying that and making, you know, having that ceiling that we all expect him to have eventually. I know it pains you to say, Greg, but remember last off season when Severino was actually working with Pedro

Martinez to work on that changeup. I think he's got to do that again, hopefully hopefully or but because I know that that was something that he was legitimately consciously working on between the at that point twenties sixteen and seventeen offseason, I believe it was where he was like working with Pedro Martinez on that changeup, and then he came out and he broke outen obviously, so we kind of gotta get back to there where he's gotta he's gotta focus on working on that pitch with the changeup,

because you know, as I've talked about insistently, you know, if you're a starting pitcher and you only rely on two pitches, I mean those pitches that are really really damn good um or else that's when you end up turning into a reliever, right, And that's kind of like the route that Saverna was what's going down because they thought, all right, maybe he won't be able to develop that third pitch. He's got to continue to work on developing

that third pitch. That's that's really what it comes down to in the consistency which Nick spoke, and not to be pitches. Sure, I'm sure that I agree, um as well Syndergards in this tier. He's spoken a little bit about why Syndergard in this tiar would you mind elaborating what he could do kind of make the job this year? Sure? Um? So this one is really interesting. Um. The pitcher List community is huge on Aaron Nola, who I'm a lot

of guys are very vocal about it. And when I put out my rankings, actually, well, I am hold on, I have been for years. We have lived every day like it's in the little day all right now. I told them that they would be upset at one of the rankings and that would be synder guard O r Nola in it. And it's brought along a long conversation inside the discord, which is fascinating, and at the end of the day, the reasoning is I expect Syndergarden to

improve this year. And I put these out at the beginning of February suggesting that Syndergard was what Jacob or Grom did with fourcing fastballs, that it's elevating them and move away from the sinker that is crating this babb up issue for him. I wrote about it last year at fan Graphs about the big flaw in in no Syndergard is the fact that this babbit is elevated for a reason. It's not just bad luck that he had a three five babbit. It's the fact that he's throwing.

He's not pitching. He's just throwing these sinkers in the middle of the zone and guys are just slapping it easily into the outfield. It's it's not a problem for them. Surprisingly, given all of his velocity and the way you're supposed to pitch with us. He's supposed to go high and tight with a pitch and then down in a way and move around the zone with your heat, and Syndergrad

hasn't done it until now. Because I expect him to go into four seem remote instead of two steamers and elevate the four seamer and what do you know, there he is on the mountain spring training and afterwards saying, Yeah, I'm moving away from my sinker. I'm going to be throwing a lot of four steamers elevated this year. And I cannot be more excited about this. I really think that this is the year that Syndergard breaks out. I know the injury stuff completely and that's the only hesitation

I have. But here in that confirmation and a guy that legitly has thirty strikeout great upside with a low walk rates and match it with a better Mets team behind him, Now, this just screams the year I've been waiting for Noah synder Guard, and it makes me feel a little bit better about that early February ranking. I'm really pumped for Thor this year, Right, Thor making a

bit of a jump like Jacob Degram did last year. Yes, Aaron Nola, but we may have an opportunity for Syndergard to be the guy we thought he was gonna be last year, Right, Like, I don't I don't think you're asking a Synderguard to make too much of a jump or ask him to do something, uh, he's ultimately never done before. But I know we're running at a time with you Nickers. Ventru will join us in an hour

or two. Before I let you go, I gotta ask you about two more guys ones Walker Bueller, who seems to be in this mix with Crassco, with Syndergard, with Severina, with Nola and Bower. You haven't named him yet? How come no? I haven't. Okay, there there's there's a term I have called gerritis, which is which is about just how the Dodgers treat their rotation, sometimes in the pen and sometimes they're in the Sorgue rotation. Sometimes they're gonna

be injured for a moment and then come back. And they're also going to not to let their young pictures go Awhile, I know the argument about about Bueler is that and well, it's not a hundred thirty seven innings. It's also the postseason and the minor leagues that essentially equates about hundred seventy last year, which means that maybe he could go two hundred. I really don't expect that.

I think the Dodgers are going to limit him to a multos hundred eighty and then save him for that postseason run after that um So that inherently makes me feel like he has a cap ceiling. And then on top of that, he only has eleven swing strike rate. Now that should be not totally representative of a strikeout because he is a forcing fastball guy, and generally you see guys that focus on forcing fastballs have a lower

overall swinging strict rate but still get a higher strikeout. Right, then that would say just because as he essentially gets the high fastball leaden counts and that's how he gets it. I don't love that he doesn't have this unreal breaking ball on top of the fourth seamer, but I love his stuff. I think that he's He's going to be

a very good picture for you. It's just the I see that capped upside in innings and I don't really think he can take that leap to strike out rate I think is maybe slightly high, but he should be very good. I have him at I guess now it's thirteen uh in my ranks, Frank, I guess your walker Bueler comments on the other side, and we're losing Nick A bad time to tell Nick that I drafted Walker Bueler over Syindergarten, the Great Fantasy BA probably knew that,

already knew that, Frank, don't worry. One more Dodger to ask you about. And that's Clayton Kershaw, who just continues to drop and drop and drop, and good for good reason. Right, he's just not healthy. What at what point do you take Clayton Kersha? What point you can cause Martinez too? I guess this is the this is the thing that

I feel like, Okay, surprised. I need to say, you can do whatever you want to your own team, and you just don't need to bring that juju around like you can win your league without feeling like you need to get the possible value that Kershaw would bring. So for me, I'm just I guess until he gets like the forty starters or maybe am I really going onto

Kershaw when I start? You know, if if I if I feel really comfortable with my staff and I feel like I got two or three excellent starters that I have such a high floor with, fine, yeah, sure I'll go after Kershaw and really seal the deal maybe with that, but I'm just not touching it. I think there are a lot of people that are taking chances when they don't need to. With Kershaw once again, and it's Nick Pollock at picture List. Nick tell everybody all the great

stuff and can get a picture list. Yeah. We do daily roundups of every starting picture and every hitting performance you should know about from the day before during the regular season. Obviously follows the twitter at picture lists for a ton of pitching gifts, the Nasti's gifts every single day, uh and Nasty's pictures from the day before. Join us on Patreon, Patreon dot com slash picture lists, Join our discord, the best community out there. There you go, It's Nick

Paul come back to you man. This is when I'm blasts, all right. Our number two up next the Closer joins us. Stick around four for your BFFs right after this