Feb 20th, Hour 2: First basemen with the Closer, breakout players, and more...

listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Let me just become best friends, Fantasy best friends forever. Our number two Fantasy best Friends Forever Fantasy Sports Radio Network. That is Frank standfoll I am Greg Saucemen, we are joyed today for our number two of our first base Breakdown show with the Closer, Chris Fencher. What's up, Chris? What's going on? Guys? What's up? What's up? It's a boy, I'm back on the BFFs. We're gonna get it done baseball. I'm excited.

I don't even wanted to baseball for a while. Little bit of Josh Bell over here, Get no worry, we'll get We'll get into Josh Bell in a little bit. I wanted to just ask over some of the stuff we've been We've hit on an hour one. I want to eat your quick takes on those first. Freddie Freeman or Paul gold Schmidt for you. Uh. For me, it's close, but I got gold Schmidt ahead of him. He's number one for me. Freddie too, Uh. I do like Freddie's I guess safety right now more than goldchmanth but Goldman

has been doing it for years. Got a down year. I don't think, you know, he's due to decline at this age right now. Just worry a little bit about the move to St. Louis. Does it like does he need a transition there? You know, he's only ever played a Chase field in Arizona. Last year the humand or maybe it affected him early on in the season because he struggled as much as he did. But I worry a little bit about the move. I've always been a

Freddie Freeman guy. I think they're very close. Yeah, they're close. I have Freddy Freeman once spot higher. I mean, Freddy Freeman is gonna get it done. The thing I like about Goldie is that listen, he's gonna hit in the heart of the lineup. So I don't think he's gonna lose too much. I know, obviously, line up there in St. Louis, Yeah, pretty good lineup. Uh. I know he's gonna be hit more homers in you know, Arizona, because that's the ballpark it is. But I still think he's gonna hit his

thirty five, you know what I mean. I think he's gonna walk a ton, just like Freddie Freeman will. Uh. You can't go wrong either way. I think you know what I'm saying. What you're putting these guys one two, back to back or not. These are the top two guys, all right, very which side of the argument where you want for these guys? I think I feel on the Freddy Freeman side. It's very close. I'm not an island now once. Um, alright, crash, are you inter out of

Codey Bellinger this year? I'm in. I mean I actually have him ahead, actually have him third. You know, I obviously live rizzo. Um, it's just the upside. He he's twenty three years old, right, so he's not even really hit his prime yet. He hasn't hit his stride. And I think this day is a great time to buy into buy into his value because I think He's obviously gonna bounce back, and I think he's gonna have a great career as well. I think he's gonna be one

of the top first basement FeAs to come. Whereas Rizzos already knowing you know who you're getting from Rizzo, he hit his ceiling. I don't think there's much more room for him to grow. So I like the fact that I could get more out of Bellinger, And realistically, I think he gives you a nice floor to Bellinger. I think he gives you a decent floor if he could play a full you know, full season thing last year was kind of his floor, and we saw it right.

I guess, like five home runs to sixty still give

you like fourteen stolen bases. The counting stats weren't necessarily what we wanted them to be because I think, you know, him hitting in the middle of the Dodgers lineup, we want those counting stats for Bellinger to be at least eight eight five runs and you know, ninety plus Harbis, you don't necessarily there last you know, we gotta like a lot about Bellinger, and this is why I put him in that category those top guys he walked in he did play a full season when he walked seventy times.

I think he's that's gonna also grow as people fear him more and he hits more homers and he becomes a staple in the lineup and everything like that. I think those walks will get higher the plate disciplines there, um, and he steals some bags as well, fifteen bags maybe, uh. And I think the average will also slowly creep up at you know, as he gets older. He's only twenty three years old. I think power is gonna a lot

more powers about to come to heet. Thirty nine homers uh in a hundred thirty two games his rookie year. So the sibling is really high, you know, and you gotta like that, and look, this is this is the uh, this is the difference. Right last year, you know, Venture was downstairs telling me, I'm your bias. He's got the up siside he can hit thirty home runs and steal thirty basses. And I was like, like, you are you

were absolutely crazy. And this is the difference because you know, Venture is still buying in on the potential of like these young guys, not necessarily just like looking at you know the fact that like statistical evidence, sometimes you gotta look at things outside of the statistical evidence, where you know, if that's what you trust in Bellender, if you trust his his prospect pedigree, in the fact that he's only No. Twenty three years old here, if you buy into that

that upside, then there you go. That's difference. Like he a get It wouldn't surprise me. It wouldn't surprise me if he hit two sixty to seventy with forty bombs steels, that wouldn't surprise me. All right, last questions, Hoskins, what do you think? So here's the weird thing. I didn't put Reese Hoskins in my first big ranking because I play an espan and he's not eligible for first base yet. Wouldn't I rather drift him as an outfielder, Yes, you

would rather drift him that outfielders, of course. But I do like Hoskins, like you were saying, I think he'll bounce back. He's a young player as well, he's only I think twenty six or something like that. Uh, I like him a little more an Olsen Olsen, I have seventh. I have Rizzo four Carpet, Matt Carpet, their five Joey Vado six, then Matt Olson seven, and that's what alt Reese Hoskins, where do you have a break on that list? Right behind Olsen eight? So he's very excited about I'm sorry,

right behind Olson, I have a brave lower. I have a rail at eleven a brad in. In just one sec before we hit a break, we were hitting on Hayes's Aguilar, Frank and you were and we were talking about how Aguilar really a tale of two seasons there. But he has the power like Matt Olsen. He has a power um like a Reese Hoskins where he just go off. And I think that's why I kind of grouped them all together here. Do you think la could

do it again? Or is there a chance that, like, hey, maybe he loses his fos Eric Thames right, like just Eric Favors did it last year? Like is that so out of the question. I don't know. I mean, he realistically ken, but it's been not just last year. What I really am looking at two is in seen when he did get the chance, but I didn't playfull season because they didn't really know about him yet and he

didn't really take over till Thames got hurt. Uh. He also hit from major power pretty consistently, definitely in the short span that he played, not short to he played a hundred thirty three games. But you know he didn't even have three hundred bats, So I think the power is real. I think all that is real. Uh, he falls behind these other tow top tier guys. Me is for a few things. Now I play in points leads,

so it's a little different. But like he doesn't walk a ton, he didn't walk, he didn't make improvements from he's growing seen definitely, And the doubles on the left over a power here that you want to see. You know, he had twenty five doubles last year. That's not enough to be in that top ten. Doubles and walks, I think to the most important things I've been doing for fifteen years, I'd say, And the two things that I noticed the most is that guys will you know, home

runs will different. Look at matcop one year at eight, one year, at fifteen, one year, thirty nine, like they're all of the board. Homer's sometimes it's it's luck factor, you know, maybe he didn't get a lot of fly balls that year. He had an unlucky year. Whatever the case may be. But usually doubles and walks stay consistent throughout the player's career. Those things don't really change much. If they hit a lot of double, they hit a lot of doubles. If they walk a lot, they walk

a lot. And those are two key factors in one knowing that pat discipline, which is very important for a hitter to stay in the league and be a good hitter. And too, if you hit a lot of doubles a lot of times, that translate to homers in the future. Uh. You know a guy that hitst doubles and fifteen homes, you can almost project he's gonna hit twenty five homes in the future. Um. And the other thing I see consistently is that it's hard to judge the young guys.

The guys you know that you know what they're gonna do. They've been playing for a while, you pretty much know what you got right. The younger guys I like. I like to see little things that stand out, like those things like walks and doubles, and it's easy to project by the third year usually that's when they start breaking out. So I'm looking for guys like that who have played a couple of years away, like and Aglare played almost

two years. Maybe he's due for his breakout. He is twenty years old, he's a little older than a normal breakout player. But I think you're seeing signs of it in the growth in his years. And that's what I look at. I look at the growth like that, and these things usually stay consistent majority of the time. They're all outliers. Of course, I like to find things consistent, especially in baseball. I don't just look at last year stats. I look at you know, what has this guy done

his career? Was he done in the minors? And I try to come up with, you know, a possible breakout year for these young players, which makes sense because and that's why he would like a guy like Cody Bellinger, right like third year breakouts. This is his third year and he's still you know, he's only gonna be twenty three, twenty four this year. So I can see what you're saying there with the with the third year breakout Greg.

You know, the more I look into Aler, I think I'm kind of talking myself into him a little bit here. I realized the second half. I mean, look, it was his first full seasons a full time player. Is it outside the realm of possibility that he just kind of got tired, he wore down a little bit as the season went on. I mean, he was awesome in that first half. I mentioned to p S in the first

half of the season. He was one of only nine players last year with thirty five home runs and RBIs that used to be like the mark of the slugger. That's what we're looking for, thirty five homers RBI. Only Knocke players did that last year. Hazew's aglar was one of them. Um, the plate discipline we mentioned, he got better. He he walked two percent more from cut the strike out right down by cent and we all love the

Brewer's lineup, right, So why don't we love Hazel. I just think I think I think we're kind of just being ages here with it. And people remember what they saw last most, which was like the second half where he kind of took a step back. You could go it could go two ways. Now, did he get tired, did he kind of wear down because it was his first full season, or did pitchers kind of figure them out a little bit in the second half. That would mean that means you're you're more out on Haze, but

he he's always been a guy that you know. We looked at the bad ball data and we were like, if they just gave him a chance to play every day, he could be awesome because he's been over a forty year cent hard hit rate, so he's mashing the ball and he's hitting five balls. Those two things combined, especially in a ballpark like Miller Park, it's gonna lead to great things. He should do his thing. I wouldn't reach on him. I would try to grab meta value that

kind fair enough. You know, here's the the NFBC a DP venture. You're getting a pick a d about okay. Right around his ranges, Matt Carpenter is going eight picks higher, Jose, everybody who's going seven picks later, Matt Ole's actually going thirty picks later. Really see, I like Olsen's value much better than and I was just talking about this SEU during the break Greg NFBC a DP. It's not the end all be all. We kind of like use this as a guide here to let us know where first

basement are going, where all players are going. Actually, but Hay going thirty picks higher on average than Matt Olson. But in the two expert drafts that we see gun on last week the Labor Draft and right now is going on the tout War Draft at hold, Matt Olsen has gone higher than Hazel in both of those drafts. Is that tells you the experts are more in on add Olsen than they are and a guy like those experts. Yes,

they're both redrafts. Okay, So I think that's just basically them saying, I think the ceiling is much higher for this guy. He's twenty four years old. Really, what what's the what's the difference if you're projecting Hayes's agil and Matt Olson Greg, what's the difference? There's not big differences because if you look at the projection system on fan Grass for for the batting average for it ranges from

two forty two to two fifty four. Why is that his batting average when last year he had two seventy four and the year before that he had two sixty five. You know what I'm saying, like, why are we projecting his batting labbing? Is batting average to be so love half? I think they take that more into account obviously, Yeah, But what does the first half just not matter. I mean, I'm kind of asking like devil obviously also most to

be fair, most projections. Usually people are very conservative, right like, especially on these experts totally you know sites definitely let me get away. I didn't really answer your question. I know that, Um, I don't think the difference between Olsen and Ail is really that different. It's not I agree with you, but in the NFBC A d P if I'm getting Olson thirty picks later, we ended up exactly value.

All right, let me move on from these like power hitting the players that you also you have this tier Frank some more of the week of like as there's a little bit of everything. When I think of those guys, I spemfically think of Joey Vato and I specifically think, who are you can for years for these two guys, you're able to just kind of count on one hand, like exactly what you would expect that of them. Poblem

was last year whosday jose Brey. You well, he gave less home runs and less runs scored and games so it was low, but the average was less than ever the ov P was less than you guys know why he only played a hundred and twenty games. By the way, I saw your note. Yes, uh he uh, he had testicular torsion surgery. It's very bad. I'm not gonna go into the details you I've tweeted up the link before I asked about that. I think it's pretty self. Hey,

doc is Jo over his testicular torsion. Yeah, we're gonna do that tomorrow. Anybody listening watching out there right now? I think you can empathize with Jose. He missed about a month of the season because of that, and then he was shut down because of a thigh injury when he came back in September. But yeah, Jo, like you kind of got to give the guy a break for last year. No, yeah, Well, let me ask you this though,

what was his highest value in his career? Last year he was being drafted as his hot at his high. I think he was coming off because three homers. Honestly, I think he was going like the third fourth roun lest year. Saying happened at his first season two. We had thirty six homes and a hundred seven rives. So he always the same guy, right, He always had about thirty home runs. He always played every game and it always better around three D. He was like, So between

him and Rizzo, I don't think it's that different. So if you play in points, I understand that. In Broo, I don't. I don't really think here that much different. Well, my point was that pretty much across the board, I know he played less games. Everything was down, and you could say the same thing Joey Vado were last year. Across the board. Everything wasn't just down. I mean it was down significantly for Joey Batoum by far the worst season since his injury. Play season. It was horrific for

Joey Vado. The big question is can one or both of these guys bounce back this year. With Jose Brady I mentioned him first, I'll start there. He had trade rumors around surround him all season last year, wait even to be traded. It never happened. Do those trade roums go away this year? I don't know. But Frank, you keep trying to look into personal stories. The testicular evulsions, whatever it is called torsion. You're tested here torsion that

that was obviously an issue. Maybe maybe these trade rumors weren't exactly helpful either. You've got some help on the way though. You're you're all over. You're all over Jose Bread this year, do you Is it because you expect him to bounce back a little bit or you're just really in love with the price? Yeah, I really do like the prize. I think that's what it's come down to. It's a combination both because I do think he's gonna bounce back as well. You're getting Jose Brew right now,

pick eight six. He's gonna be after aglare you know as much as you know we just spoke about a Jose Brave was a guy that we've seen do it for four or five years already. So I really do trust the safety there. I think he's safe for to eighty plus batting average, thirty home runs, eight plus runs, not plus r B. I I do think the White Sox lineup, it's not gonna be great, but it's gonna be better than years past once Eloi Amenez gets there. Like you know, Eloy Hamnn is also a native of Cuba.

I think these guys are actually gonna kind of like eink, They're gonna hit it all together. Well, I mean, remember Jose Breve was also from Cuba. I I think that's gonna help. I think it's gonna help the White Sox lineup. He's typically a very slow starter. I've used this in my analysis in the past of Jose braw He's from Cuba, and what I've said about like Latin American players is I think that the cold weather might affect some of

these guys. So Jose Brew in March and April playing in you know if the six weather in Chicago, I think that affects him. So he's a slow stays. He's safe man, and I like the price that you're getting that right now. Joey Votto is also safe. Until last year we got Chris Bencher. We find out what happens if you can bounce back when we come back. Fantasy best Friends Forever. Fantasy Sports Daily Rodo dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give

you premier advice. He play every day, all major sports, all year round. We never stopped industry leading DBS rules and custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot Com Optimizer in minutes build and optimized line up for cash games and turneys. Learned from the game's best DFS players. Joined Daily rodo dot com. Hi, my name is Lily. My mom and dad used to fight about money all the time. Then one day I heard them talking about

this guy, some uncle I never knew, called Uncle Sam. Well, they say, this Uncle Sam guy wanted them to pay him like a gazillion dollars, and they didn't have a gazillion dollars. So they called this company they heard on the radio called the tax Doctor, and the tax Doctor worked with Uncle Sam's people. I think they're called the I R S. And they're able to work it out. So my mom and dad didn't have to pay Uncle

Sam very much money at all. So now mom and dad are happy, and I'm happy to thanks tax Doctor. If you owe ten thousand dollars or more to the I R S or State, call now and pay less eight hundred five one seven to seven eight hundred one five one seven to se that's eight hundred five seventeen seven ring make it rain. As far as Antonio Brown goes, congratulations, dude, I'm sure it was so terrible making seventeen million dollars

a year that you are leaving the best. Nobody extends plays in the NFL like Ben Roethlisberger nobody's got the arm. The reason, my friend, you've been as good as you have been is because Ben Roethlisberger has that unique ability extend plays and allows you to get down the field and get wide open Weekdays six and nine am Eastern on the Fantasy Sports networking on your popular podcast. Providers joined the Experts live on the air every day by calling in at April four, six, seven nine to join

the Fantasy Sports Network. We're back here Fantasy Best Fence Forever on the Fantasy Sports Forger Network. Give you a little bit on Josie a brave bouncing back here getting good value it him Joey Bottom or not. Joey Votto is in the n FBC going off pick sixty eight as the fifth first basement off the board, before Matt Carpenter, after Cody Bellinger. This is despite him having essentially the

worst season of his career. It's as twelve home runs under seventy runs scored under seventy ribbies, struck out more than he has in three years, walked less than he had the year before. You know what kind of it's around his career average, of course, listen, it was hardly year now again is OBP was still four UM but for all of this vers it was a bad year. Venture does that continue this year? Does a power go back up? Or at thirty what five years have we seen the end? Have we seen the end of the

best of Joey Bada See? That's yeah, that's why this is probably one of the hottest guys to judge UM thirty five years old, So you would think he might maybe he's just declining in power, right, He's still walking, he's still got a great eye, still got career played this have been hit too, eighty four, the average still last, he's still got the bat. I think you could find value in the guy. I just don't know if you're gonna find value that you used to get. I don't.

I think those days of him being the best or a top three first basement are gone. I think he could still be a top five third basement first baseman. But I just think you're not, like you said, you're not getting him at great value right now because he's the fifth ranked first basement off the board. I would take Carpenter of him, That's just me. I'll take I think Carpenters still has you know, what he's been doing still left in him. I think Votto is losing the power.

I think that you know, it's no more lineup is better? Right? Well, I don't think he's gonna hit thirty plus anymore. I think he might give you twenty five. If he gives you twenty five, then then then maybe he produces them. Of course, of course, I was just gonna ask, what do you think of the fair projection for home runs this year? For Joe? I told you that all four projection systems on fan Graphs had him projected for the

same home run amount? What is it? Already looked at it? No, I just went to Matt Carpenter because I was gonna get We mentioned Matt carpon us. I was gonna get it him. So I haven't looked at if I told you all four had the home run total at the same amount, what would you say? It is? Venture? Alright? So al right there, so I vottot give you twenty two homers five. But it wasn't just that, right like,

I need the runs to go back up. I need the RBI, I need all of that to go back have they have the most conservative one here has the runs at eighty seven and the RB I s at eight plus. It's fantastic, is it? Though it's a fifth round pick. You want eight RB, guys, you want plus? So good? A hundred to RBIs last year, to be fair, he only had five hundred of bats. He usually has like five sixty. All right, hey, Frank, we missed some time last year. He played a hundred and forty five games. Frank,

why did this happen? Right? Like, the hard hit for enage for Joey Vanno was high. It was the highest of his career. Well, he didn't hit as many flyballs that he did the year before. The line drive rate went up like it was massive line drive rate. That's great. I mean, it's gonna help you for batting average is gonna give you doubles like butting average he went down overall, um,

but which is weird. You know, the batting average going down is weird because he did hit he hit two eighty four, but the hard hit rate went up, so he got unlucky and the line drive rate wast It was three thirty three, which sounds good. But he's yeah, now, but that's low for him. Then here I'm saying, so he's gonna I think the ball profile. The big number that you see, it's ratio all the way down. Nine and a half percent was the home run of fly

ball ratio. He plays the Great American Ballpark, so it's like it should bounce back, like it should go up right. Kind of a crazy he dude too, because I like, I've listened to podcasts where people are talking about you know, you know Saras that was he used to be with Fan Graphs. He's now with the Athletic Um. You know. He he writes great articles. And he also took it to interview some of these players and talks to them

about some some of the advanced analytics and stuff. And apparently he interviewed Joy Vado one year and asked him like, oh, you know, what was going on, Like you made you made some adjustments from like your first year, first half to second half. You were completely different. He was like, oh yeah, you know, you know, I was just I was just trying something different. He's like, yeah, it was no big deal, even you know, even if my production stuffer.

He's like, oh, yeah, I was just trying something different. Like he doesn't he changes at bat his stance every at bat. Yeah, that's something that I've heard about it is like depending on who he faces to like change his batting stands based on who he's facing. Motivation has been a question for Joey Vado the past couple of seasons. Now, this is what I wonder about, the fact that this might be one of the better Cincinnati Read teams that he's played for over the past let's say five years.

Does motivation kind of help him bounce back? If he looks at this team and he's like, all right, you know they traded roles and starting pictures. Um, you know, they still don't have a legitimate ace, but they you know, they have better pitching than they have had had in years passed. They have Ya c l Plea, Scooter Janette has played well over the past couple of years. They have a good lineup On paper, the Red should be

an improved team. Is that enough for Joey Votto to look at it and say, all right, I'm gonna turn it on again this year? Because to me, he kind of strikes me as one of those guys where he's like, if I want to turn it on and hit twenty five bombs with a three batting average, I can't. I just kind of need the motivation, I think they I don't know if it's motivation. More like, listen, he's not gonna want to do poorly. You know, he's still playing

in the MLB. He still wants to end his career nicely, right, he still wants to have a nice, solid career for a normal player. I would say that's probably right, that's probably kind of here's the thing, Okay, So what's the first thing to go for a player when they're old? Power right usually and played discipline? I would say out more, Yeah, because when you use the power, you lose that fear that the picture has of you, and they'll walk you less. Right. So,

but here's the thing. He still walked at an insane clip, uh and still hits for good average. This guy is gonna might lose the power, but it's gonna translate, I think, to doubles. I think he's gonna hit more doubles less Homer's, which is almost kind of the kind of even things out for him a little bit. The walkers still be, the average still be because this guy's not only was a very good power hitter, this guy is a pure hitter, just a great hitter. And I think that stays because

great hitters, they're still gonna hit for average. I think long, you know, into their career, I think you're just gonna lose some of the power. He's not gonna hit thirty five bombs anymore. He's gonna hit five something like that. But maybe he'll give you doubles. He's still valuable play. The problem is where you're drafting him. He's way better value. He's way better for point. Yeah, he's way better for points. Leads O b P in the outwards draft is O

b P rhodo. They use ov P instead of batting average. And he went at the end of the third round. Yeah, that makes sense because he's gonna have an OP over FO. Yeah, bad average. I still would project that he's probably closer to three hundred this year. But and you bank on him getting back to home runs and giving you the ninety plus and runs and RBIs it is. It's definitely

an outlier. I don't know that I could bank on him giving you twenty five and ninety and ninety Again, the county set should be there with that lineup, right, you hope? So he plays a full season, abody, I've given you my two guys from this tier that I like most. Everything kind of you know, statistical evidence, what you expect from this this year draft price. All of those things included who are the two guys that you

like most from this tier? So I don't know. It includes Rizzo, Haskins, Bellinger, vado A, Bray You, Daniel Murphy, Carpenter, Olson A. So I don't want to answer until I get to Murphy and Carpenter, because I've heard everything, but all these guys, I think it's only fair to get

into Carpenter and Murphy. That's cool. So Matt Carpenter last year by far at a career high and in everything, thirty six home runs, eleven hundred and eleven runs scored, eighty one r v I, which is not a career high, is the second highest of his career, shug out more than ever the average was, the OVP was actually slightly down. You saw a influx of power. Clearly he was a

man on a mission. After batting one fifty five April with two home runs, when US two nineties seven in May with five long runs before the weather got hot, and so did Matt Carpenter before of course getting ice cold in September, August and September. September he had in one seventy m so that Carpenter a bit streaky. Besides the extremely extremely hot summer. Here's a big number of that Carpenter and I'm sure Franks would point this out.

The hard hit percentage, I believes the highest in baseball at fort years. His launch angle must have been different last year. The whole run of actively trying to hit more, the whole run off eyeball ratio by far a career high of nineteen percent. I'm not not that crazy number, but his career, his career home run a five ball ratio eleven and a half percent all the way up to nineteen last year. The line drive percentage over twenty

six percent. Last year, forty seven percent of his balls and play were fly balls compared to twenty six point four where a groundball rate. Matt Carpenter is a name. It's been around a long time. We talked about Joey Votto being thirty five. Matt Carpenters thirty three years old. He's not a spring chicken anymore either. Didn't play a hundred and fifty six games last year, uh, the most he's played since. Matt carpent has been a guy who

has first base eligibility and third to base eligibility. He is somebody that we used to life with the consistency, but we found boring. We found a guy that was like, all right, he's not gonna be that thirty home run guy, and all of a sudden, he popped for thirty six last fright, I'll start with you for this one. What

do you make him? Matt Carpenter in So, based on the battle Ball pro file we had seen the past couple of years and talking about seen a lot of people last year, we're projecting him to kind of like take that next step in terms of home runs, because look, if you're hitting the ball that hard and hitting it in the air that often, he had a battle ball profile that reminded you of someone that should be hitting thirty five home runs. So he finally actually did that

and scored a hundred and eleven runs. And he's gonna lead off and the Cardinals line up again, which is arguably not even arguably it's better, it's definitely better. And he scored a hundred eleven runs last year, and now Paul Goldschman is part of that lineup. I don't know that I would project from hit thirty six home runs again this year, like he's one year older, like maybe thirty to thirty two, but he's gonna walk a lot. Um. I do worry a little bit about the strikeout rate,

which was the highest of his career. So um, the batting average isn't you know where it used to be, like in the two seventy range. He's probably you know, I think he's gonna live in that kind of like, but he's gonna give you thirty home runs. He's gonna score a boatload of runs in that lineup, guaranteed a hundred runs soon. He can stay healthy, like that's been a big problem from the past couple of years, you know, dealing with like back and like shouldering issues. It feels

like something is over, always flaring up. But he told you last year that when he stays healthy and you know, he's good enough to swing that bat the way that he can hundred fifty six games, he had thirty six home runs. So assuming assuming health, I think that he can come close to the production that he did last year, maybe not the same power output. What he's doing I think here is the average went down. I think he said, he's sacrificing average a little bit, because it's not like

he hit an unbelievable average anyway. He's sacrificing a little bit for power exactly. That's what he's doing. So that's okay, and maybe not thirty six. He can't project thirty six. I would say, like you said, five to thirty. But here's the thing that he's done consistently his whole career. Walk a lot and hit a ton of doubles, two things I told you everything else, he hasn't really been in yap consistent with it. And the thing and the only seasons he really hasn't scored a hundred runs so

close to it is when he's been injured. When he's played close to full season, he scored a hundred runs, and he will score a hundred runs this year if plays full season. This guy is if you think about it. But so I was looking at the home runs. Really he's as consistent as they come. Sure, one of the reasons I was off Matt Carpenter last year. She's battling the shoulders injuries that just seemed to sap him with some of that power and seemed to keep him out

of the line up. You're just like, I don't want to deal with this crap. And they've been a hundred of these six games, and obviously the three say healthy. One more first basement in this tier before we kind of rank before I'll give you my pick some you know yours'll get adventures too, and that is Daniel Murphy who you'll probably play him at second base because he has the second base of eligibility and it's just obviously

a harder position middle winfield. But Daniel Murphy goes over to Colorado, and last year it's tougher to figure out. He obviously came into the year not healthy at all, so we were all off, everyone loving to deal with him. Played a bunch of games for the Gnats and then went over to the Cubs. It was never really consistent. It was a very weird year. Um, it just didn't really strike out, walked less than he has in a long time. Average great was actually worst it has been

a very long time. Yeah, it's still good. It's still good. Um, ob waited out. It's only gonna go up in the Colorado Yeah, of course, ob v way down and the power of South. He played sample do you guys just take this year and throw it out For Daniel Murphy, I wouldn't throw it out. I I do to to a certain extent. Definitely wasn't healthy early on. Took him longer to come back than people expected dealing with that

knee injury last year. He's a little bit older now, but he again, he was another one of these guys that bought into the launch angle revolution over the past couple of years. With when he left the New York match.

You kind of saw him started in that playoff run with the Mets when they made the World Series, and then ended up signing over with the Washington Nationals, which was a great bargain deal for them because the next thing, you know, the guy's hitting over three consistently, and he's saitting twenty plus home runs and he's driving people in. The batting average is absolutely real. It was you know,

to average are better for three straight seasons. His expected batting average during each of those seasons was three or five or better. So normally, Greg, I tell you expected batting average is lower. It's been right there. For Daniel Murphy, it's been right around where he's at. And you know last year was actually up, so he's no Fluke three batting average during those three years is second in baseball only two joseale to A. It makes a ton of contact.

He doesn't strike out eight percent contact rate during the past three years. Um. Last year again like the Eggs, velocity and hard hit rate was down, but I think a lot of that had to do with coming back from the injury. You go over to Colorado, It's been proven Colorado is absolutely one of these uh, one of these ballparks, one of these environments where your battu is gonna go up, your batting average is gonna go up.

It's absolutely been proven. That's a huge If we if we're talking about a guy that's been a three six hitter Greg collectively over the past three seasons while he's been with Washington, the sky is yeah, Colorado right like he can he can legitimately hit three third four. I'm not gonna project in that way. I haven't projected for three ten, but based on what we've seen the past couple of years, if he is healthy this year and the knee injuries kind of behind him, he can he

can hit three thirty. Daniel Mury. Daniel Murphy going right after Joey Vado according to the NFBC, so he would slot in before Matt Carpenter. I like Matt Carpenter, I like I'm a point lead guy. Though I like him more than those guys just because of the second base eligibility, or I think the second base position is kind of weak, like you mentioned, if I draft him, probably not using him at first base, but based on a second base eligibility, I would draft him ahead, like if I was in

the fifth round. Then I'm looking at Daniel Murphy, Joey Vado, and Carpenter, and I'm making a decision. I'm taking Daniel Murphy because of the second base. My issue is just the the injury. Sure, I'm really worried about that over a Carpenter Vado, of course, So that's why I have him a little low. But obviously lude he's gonna hit three dred in Colorado no matter how much time he plays, and if he does play close to a full season, I think this is we are where he's gonna hit

like fifty doubles, like without it down Colorado. All right, you asked me, Frank a moment ago, if I had to pick two guys from this tier, it would it be your two favorites, and then we are two least favorites. Okay, my two favorites from this tier. It's just the way that I, I guess think about first basement, we'll probably the Jose Bray you in, Matt car and Daniel Murphy.

Those are your two favorites, not not who I take first obviously because of the value just everything kind of incog kind of everything together, what you project for this season. There the price you have to pay for these guys. I just love the value of Jose Brew. I think playing the full season like kind of does he does? I really love that. I trust him to do that. And Daniel Murphy in Colorado just it's so yeah, it's tantalized him. That's the words. Were your two favorites in

this year? I like was Rizzo in that year? Rizzo and alright, riz corpor we'll come back. We got twentyts ago, We've gotten through Tenni first patiment um putting a little bit faster now. I know, Frank, you have your favorites into your four. I want to get to Tyler White and Lufoy. I want you to be able to get into Josh Bell. It's we other first basin that you like, and I'll hit on something as well. We dive a little bit deeper in the first face when we come back.

Fantasy Best Fans Forever. The Fantasy Sports Network is hitting you from all angles with the best fantasy sports and betting analysis. You can catch the latest programming on so many platforms. There's no way you'll miss out on any of the award winning programming we pump out every single day. You can listen through the f t s Y Radio app, iHeart Radio, tune in Radio, Stitcher, download our podcast through iTunes, Google Play, Spotify, Audio Boom, and you can watch select

programming on the fan t s Y YouTube channel. The Fantasy Sports Network your only source for fantasy sports and wagering anytime and anywhere. Fantasy Sports Today. Funny, He's probably the wrong word, Mike, but Anthony Davis left with an injury right before the Hull Star break. Like the guy is, he's made a glass and I know he's played a ton of games when even it seems like he's always injured,

but he's always leaving games. He's and the talent is there, but eventually you just have to be like, come on, man's not stop game, banged up and bruised. Play to your full potential and see what happens. Saturdays, eight am Eastern on the Fantasy Sports networking on your popular podcast providers. Maurice Allen two thousand and fifteen, two thousands and sixteen European Long Drive Tour Champion two thousand seventeen, World number one.

Me personally, I keep my game face on me all the time, especially coming out with the bucker, leaving the range or even leaving the ports. What's your story? You go to game face grooming dot com from all your athletic facial wipes and body cleansing needs. The morning after Bobby Valentine, former manager, they're talking about clapping down on

stealing signs. What do you big when you hear the decide these potential rules, Well, if you never would have been able to operate it, but shame on ye clause to make to be a major league rule. Tweet Days not Ammy, starting on F and T s Y Radio and on your popular podcast providers. We are back here all the Fantasy best friends forever, Chris Ventra, Frank Stamford, Gregg Sauce hanging out with you now. Ober two, We

did all that. I believe it was top ten first basement, right, eleven eleven, alright, tops, all right, it makes you feel better, right, top eleven, first hours, eleven names not bad, but it's pretty good, working, hard work. If you had to pick a twelfth first basement, who'd be for me? I'll just tell you my number twelve, first baseman. It's Showy Gallow Chris. It's between Listen. I really like Josh Bell, so I have him high. Don't tell me twelve and um and canon.

I have very hard to Ian. It's fine, that makes sense to me. I know Bett Listen, it's wild. Well, I'm not gonna draft him obviously, as like the twelve. I'm gonna try to get the value as much as I can. I'm gonna draft differently. This is just where I rank him. I think he's gonna be better than all these guys behind him. Maybe not Muncy like like Muncly, I like to uh. He's like him for points leagues too.

I had him. I picked him up in in one of my home leagues last year in the Auction league, and it was like all he did was walking home every at bat, Like his ops was over a thousand where he walked a lot far into the season, but he like every time it looked at like his staff and it was like two walks a home run and like one for one with a singles like this is such a two or two. It was like a weird It was always a weird salite. All he did was walking home. Yeah, he didn't really I don't think it

very many doubles either. But here's the thing. He he he popped up out of nowhere, had this great year. I don't trust that. Sometimes There's been a lot of guys that have done this. One guy that comes to mind, Ryan Lidwig. I don't know if you remember cards had a monster like twenty nine Homer year, kind of disappeared, had one more decent year, and then disappeared off the map. Um. I don't like those guys that pop up late in

their age and have a great year. I usually give it another year to see what's going on with that guy. So that's why. And Belle is more of a prospect that I've known for a while. I know he's supposed to be a very good player, hits for really good average walks, does all the things I like, And it's his third year coming up, So there's the breakout year. I like the value there, you know what I mean. I like the ceiling and the value there better better

where a month. See, you saw maybe his cat last year. I'm not so sure he's gonna do that again or even you know, do better, right. I think he might even regress. Okay, I gotta ask. You were talking about Jesus Agler. He's kind of a guy who's popped up here late as like a breakout. Is that Do you kind of hold him in the same regard as you do Max Munsey, Well, I'll almost played two full seasons, so I saw a lot and I remember the year before he was, before he was raking, you know, when

he when he got his opportunities. Just always find guys like this, you know, like they've done it with Justin Turner, like they find his journeyman guys and like they turn them around. He did it with Chris Taylor and they didn't. Well Chris Taylor wasn't great last year, but they did it with Justin Turner. Me too, Yeah, tells another guy that can't wars me. But you see some good things about him as well, like some green flags that you know, you could see potentially that he could bounce back and

have a great career, But tell he's younger. I believe this guy. I think he's twenty eight years old months, right. I just don't know if I could project him to do the same thing or better right now. I have him in my mind as a guy that would like if I'm you know, going in there in the range that I like, right, I could get value for him, but I would not absolutely not reach for him, and I would not project him to do anything better than he did last year. I just don't see it. I

don't see where it's coming from. It came out of nowhere, you know what I mean. He did at the time, you see at the time, but he also struck out seven percent at the time, So you know, he's kind of one of these, you know, one of these three three true outcomes here where he walks a lot, he strikes out a lot home and he hits a lot of home runs. Mistake me if I'm wrong here, Greg, But wasn't monthsly like kind of being bench during the

playoffs too, Like he wasn't playing every day. Nope, Nope, nope, nope. He's projected to actually roster resource has him as a as a platoon candidate as well, with the Dodgers here sitting against lefties. I don't know if I necessarily buy that, because he was actually pretty he held his own. He was two fifty fives against lefties. It's pretty. It's pretty

damn good. I don't know why he would be platoon unless you know, the Dodgers have some kind of data that I don't based on his average and his op Yes, he was pretty good against No, he was that. That's the thing that you gotta worry about with these one years. Sometimes wonders is that they get a short leash. That's true if they if they you know, a cold for the first three four weeks there platoon in or they benched, and now you're losing valuable time in that slot where

you have him. That's why I don't want to draft him. I would drift him as like a utility, as a flex type of thing, you know what I mean, in first and third eligibility, so you can get him as like your corner infielder, right like something like that that I think that's okay. So you don't want him as your starting first or third No, I wouldn't want him as my starter. No, unless I have no choice. You feel like we need Florio here to defend. Like the

guy listen, because he's all over month. He's drafted him in the tout Wars draft. He told me he wants him. And you know, we play in two home points leagues together. One is Auction want to draft, and he told me he's gonna be all over Mons. So it's it's it's whether or not you trust that he's gonna play every day and how much of last year was real? And look, he doesn't have to do what he did last year

because last year he was otherworldly. Thirty five home runs and four played appearances in a hundred and thirty seven games. So you know there's gonna be like those people who pro rate the stats and be like, oh, well, you know he plays a hundred fifty's gonna hit fo re plus home runs. That's not gonna happen. I'll tell you I have his projection at two fifty seven homers. I'll

tell you right now. Muncy in my points league had was the about the twelfth thirteenth ranked first baseman on his stats and the average three point three Fantasy points per game. Uh. And the top first basements like Carpet their average four uh, Freddy Freeman average three point eight, Goldschman three point nine. He's better for points leaves? Do you want him in? Roto? Greg? Is he a target of yours? I remember I asked you about months yet ye. It reminds me a lot of Chris Taylor. It didn't,

said Zaculy Ventre said, had to judge it. Man, it's the one year thing. It's scary. It's scary. It's very scary. Max Monse, how about this and my homely Last year I had Joey Vado and Max Munsey two for six, eight ten. Doe Vado was the twelve ranc first baseman. Next months he was thirteen. This was an auction league and I spent thirty five dollars in my budget on Vado. He was the twelfth ranked first baseman. Last year's actually

where he's supposed to be really good. I realized he had twelve home runs, but Joey Votto was the twelve first baseman. I'll always give Carlo Santana, Dude, he was the best first baseman in points leagues last year. And if you ask like the average fantasy baseball player. What do you think about Carl Santana? He's like him homers like, he doesn't really do anything. He walks one of them. He was six in total points. That's because he also played a He always plays a full season, like he compiles.

You know what I mean. He's accumulator because his actual average Fantasy points per game with three point two, that's nowhere near these other guys. These top guys are averaging three point six to four. Okay, that's how those are the top guys like Santana on a game to game basis, isn't giving you more than monthly monthly average three point three.

So rickson profile average three point three. I like pro out too, like these guys averaged more than Santana, but he ends up party on the totem pole in total points because he played so much. Why why do you guys like PROFI so much? Does? I'm trying to figure out why everyone likes him, does a lot of different things. Well to me, runs and st ten bases last year in a great ballpark in Texas. Now moves over to Oakland's prospect He could still begs right, but he yeah,

but he walks. He goes from one of the best hitting ballparks, Oakland. I hear you. I'm telling I'm telling you asked you asked me why I'm not really buying it. On the profile thing, A lot of people are like in on Profo far I'm not really one of them. Would I like him more points leagues because he makes like contact, he doesn't strike out, He's pretty good, played discipline, does a little bit of everything. But in Rhodo it's like,

what are you expecting? He gives seven to sixty two seven, He'll give you eighteen home runs, ten stolen basis, he'll give you above average in every category, basically above average, right, like eighteen home runs. I mean, but you gotta like other things. First of all, he's only twenty five years old. He's gonna be twenty six. What's the number. It's his birthday, today's birthday. Go out and draft him. So he still just turned twenty six one year old and I got

so he's getting into his prime. Now's the time, Now's the time. I mean, listen, perjection systems have him at between two fifty six and to fifty nine average. They have him at between sixteen and nineteen homers. In between eight and eleven stone bases. What does that do? But there's the other numbers. Fifty four walks int that's pretty good. Pretty good, yeah, jerks and profile doesn't thirty five doubles. I get the prospect, pedigree and stuff. He could do

all he could do more. If you guys want him, that's fine. But he looked I'm sorry and overrule you here. He will not be on our auction team. Listen. I was last year. That's because we picked him up. Take him as a backup and hope for the best. It's a great backup. He has multi position eligibility, him as your corner ray fielder, your middle in fielder, utility. I just don't want him as like my starting first heard

or shortstop. I don't want him as either. That's bad then, yeah, you don't want to do that unless you're in a really deep league. But venture yeah, what about Joey Gallo here, Joey gallow is an interesting Do you want to talk about three true outcomes? Joey Gallo is about as close to three true outcomes as you could possibly get. I mean, over the past two years, he has eight one homers over the past years. That's fourth most in baseball. He also has a thirty six percent hard hit rate that's

the second highest in baseball. Umtent trikeout rate that's second highest in baseball. Seven percent hard hit rate over the past few years, the most fly ball rate, the most. We talked about the forty forty club. We want hard hit right ball rate, he's nearly the fifty ft club, Greg, So this guy is gonna hit fly balls. He's gonna hit what's what's that average? Yeah, that's that's terrible. Here's

what I'm looking at. Here's what I'm looking at. First half, raise yourself seven thirty nine o p s. Second half to thirty nine batting average two o p s. Still struck out thirty five percent of times, but hit the ball even harder. This is why you don't want him.

The two percent hard to hit right dude. If he can maintain the top, if you can maintain a two thirty two batting average instead of the sub to ten that he's been too thirty or two forty over the course of a full season, he's a top fifty hitter. He's legitimately a top because in points leagues he has the problem with him. This is a guy written written with inconsistency all over his face. He's adam done. He's also gonna have a short lea. She's not because I'm done.

He was like, this is why he's gonna have a at least what I'm saying. If he backs, they're talking about giving an extension. But what I'm saying is that, like you're hitting two back to back, here's two oh nine and two oh six. If you hit one seventy five for a month and that goes on for a while, they might end up platoona intervention. The guy you can't hit sub two hundred for that long and if he is hitting a probably not hitting with consistent power either.

Do the Texas Rangers have enough talent to like have that luxury? You know? Do they? We're trying to find ways to get like Willy Calhoun in the lineup right now. I realized that, But I just I don't like these guys in the point league where I'm playing a weekly points league, Like he could go two weeks and disappear. I can't have that. There's an interesting like conversation going on right now and Fantasy Baseball Twitter revolving around Joey Gallo.

If I'll pull up some of the stuff for you. Greg, how do you feel about Joey Gallo? I never own him in Rhodo. You need to have the perfect construction to have on your team, need to have liked because if you draft him, he's gonna he's gonna sink your batting. Ever, unless you think that he can be that two hitter that he wasn't the second half last year over the course of the full season. If he does that, then he's a top fifty hitter and Rohodo team, you're only you.

You're getting him. There's no other players are not gonna give you forty home run. He's hanging on by a thread. He's hanging on those forty homers. If he has thirty homers and does the same things Chris Carter, he's Italian, He's Joey Gallo. He's not at the league, but his value gets shacked if he goes exactly completely sacked and he's like Chris Carter, Dude, this is Chris Carter, e said, he walks more you, Carlo Santana. Briefly you have them.

It's here with your guys, Luke Voit, Tyler White. What makes you like him someone, He's the Rhoto rankings that I and I typically use, uh Carlo Santana, look for Roto he there's no player who takes a bigger hit in terms of from points to Rhodo. Correct, you only one him in points? I don't. I don't even want him in because he's gonna give you to fifty with two to twenty five homers. And the Indians lineup is not like you know, it's not as good as it has.

Tell's Ramirez, that's Lindor hopefully once he's healthy. And you got a bunch of question marks like Jake Bowers and yeah he does walk a lot, and there you go. You like, you like your guys that walk a lot, but he's a good's Jake Bowers. And like the outfield is Greg Allen and Leone's Martin. So look, it's not

really a great lineup. Luke Void and Tyler White, those are the guys that you know, once once we get past Gallo and Carnacio Muncy, I have Gallo and Carnassona mons in their own tier because to me, those guys are like, you know, sub to fifty hitters that have power potential. To me, like that's basically that tier, and then next up is like once I miss out on those guys, it's I think Luke Voit has the potential

to do something like Hayese's Agilor did last year. Is downside is I think the Yankees still kind of want to play Greg Bird a little bit, so you'll worry a little bit about playing time with Luke Void. Same thing with Tyler White. You're worry a little bit of up about playing time. But White is a guy who has performed admirably at the minor league level the past couple of years. We're talking, you know to a d

plus batting average, twenty five home runs. When he was given an opportunity last year with the Astros, he played well. So he's the every day d H in the Astro's lineup. And he get you know, to seventy to eighty with twenty home runs. I think some County stance will be there because it's a good line up. This guy had a chance before though, Yeah he didn't get hot I think at first and then cooled down tremendous and capitalize him that he's projected to start at d H right now.

They have some other names there in the Astros. Uh. You know they have like Tony Camp and they have Jake Murisnick. So you know, if they want to give Brandy a d H Day like, that's gonna you know, that's gonna end up interfering with Tyler White's playing time. I'll give you, I'll give you one more guy in this tier. I think he's already in that. He's on the top of that tire. I think. Um, but justin Smoke, justin Smoke is a guy that I'm looking at too.

He's slowly even creeping up. I moved him up. He's a good amongst number nine team. I think you could count on it for certain things at this point. You know what, I think he's you convinced me and you didn't even say anything. I don't him over call of Santana just because in Rhoto. Yeah, but justin Smoke, we're talking about a guy here who Now here's a guy little collins Worth action for you. He's going outside the top two. Yeah, he's free. He's going around trade man

Sini Boom boom. He's going around Jose Martinez, who doesn't even have a job. He's on the Cardinals, but he's not gonna play. He's not doesn't smoke. He's going to thirty. Yeah, he's gonna sink your batting average a little bit, but he could eat homeless. He did it two years. That's the thing. He's gonna hit to forty and two fifty, but he does. I do think have thirty plus home run upside, especially when flat Guerrero comes into the lineup.

So this is really that tier where you know, once you get past Monc and Incarnacion, it's like you find your upside guys who you like, who you think you know that you get later on that you know you're basically getting for cheap, who can pay off. Tayler White is one of those guys for me. I also like Luke Voit. I kind of agree on Justin Smoke. He hits in a great division too. Toronto is a good ballpark.

He's gonna go to Yankee Stadium. He's gonna go to these kind of guys they think all really fit the corner infielder profile. Yeah, guys that you can take a shot taking a shot, take a shot on late guy like Tyler White, it could break out. I got like Justin Smoke, It's gonna give you the numbers that he needs a routing at your team and rout at your statistics. I think they fit well in there. Frank, how about this, Greg, We've done two hours on first basement. Yeah, we didn't

even mention Miguel Cabrera. Is that mistake? Is that a mistake he drops out of that. I know a lot of people are you know a lot of people are backing right back in And Miguel Cabrera, I understand why he could one seventy range in a DP. He could give you average and stuff like that. Maybe, but he's not gonna do too much else A guy I will say to look out for Peter Alonzo. I think in the long term this guy later in the year could really help teams. The guy's absolute beast and mother named

similar to that Nathaniel Lowe of Tampa Bay. Deeman Toy is not cutting it. It was gonna be up serious power upset. Thanks thanks Vencher for hanging out with us. For Chris Vencher and Frank example, I'm Greg Sousman. Second base tomorrow be open.