Fantasy Baseball, predicting Paxton's value, Goldschmidt in St. Louis, and more...

You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network Fantasy Best Friends Forever. Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do? Did it too? Yeah? This is the Fantasy Best Friends Forever here in the Fantasy Sports Bringing In Network alongside Frankie standfll. I am Greg. Hey, what's going on? Greggy? What's up? Tuesday? January? Like? Something that I like to do while you were gone was I would ask Jim how did he sleep the night before? So I'll not ask you how did you sleep last night? Greg?

I slept well. I slept well. It was very comfortable, little spoon, Greg, I was not a little. I was very comfortable. But this morning I have a massive headache. To be honestly hungover, big Monday night for zero drinking. Just the headache developed this morning. Is it the is it the flu hangover? Maybe? Nope, I know the voice is still little raspy. While editing the NBA recap, it was better than it was better than yesterday. It was you're trending in the right direction, trending up. But I

was really excited to come in the day. I was really excited for our topics today on the program. But it's been a rough morning. Man. It's there's a lot going on or anything I missed. I don't never get married. Thanks for the advice, Greg, You got it. Man. It's unbelievable. It's like the dumbest arguments are just there, and I'm happy to do. I was looking forward to this and we're talking about a lot of baseball stuff on the show,

which I'm really excited about. Like literally midway through yesterday, frank'sly working downstairs, I'm reading random fan graph stats like that. I mean, I'm in, I am in, So I'm not letting this one about. What are you arguing about? Marriage wise? Like what? Like, I'm there anything I need to know about. I certainly have not dove as deep as you have yet obviously you're getting married this year. No time to wait. Greg's years old. He's gotta get married this year for

everything stops Worth shut up? Um, well, like what's in your mind? I actually had something to do with me, that's ridiculous. I had a dream last night that I was trying to we were trying to figure out our color scheme for the wedding. That was my dream. Of course, nothing came to me like I still don't have something that's not a me thing with me? You have like a color scheme yet is Yeah, she's doing like mostly like silver black white, like non colors like silver white,

black gray shades. Sure. Right, So they're talking about like dresses now, like bridesmaid dress stuff like that. The thing why I am involved with? Why would you be involved in that? I'm gonna try my best not to be correct. I never thought I would be at all. So that's that's where we are, Frank, That's all I got for you. I'm sorry, Bud. Yeah, well, I'll try to cheer you up. Talk a little baseball today, and they'll be Hall of

Fame induction ceremony today as well. We also have I believe the f s t a fantasy baseball draft tonight we do, so we'll have and something else to talk about as well starting tomorrow, you want to talk about that draft. I also saw Leonardo Dafino that Paul Charchi, in the head of the f c A, is changing the name of the fc A to the f s g A grad Fantasy Sports. I saw that as well, Fantasy towards Gaming Association, which makes sense with gambling and

gaming becoming so popular. Training association never really made sense at all. Gaming. I like, I like what they're doing there. It's a good job, I pul charch Ch. I mean, everything is kind of being fused together anyway, because if you're into making projections for fantasy, it's very easily translatable to gaming and betting and player props and you know, picking a side in a game, so on and so forth. So there, you know, there's a lot of parallels. It

makes sense. So on the program today, we decided that with all football still to come a k a. The Super Bowl, so we have a lot to come there, but we also have baseball right around the corner. And I was looking, as I said yesterday, looking at old tweets, old like my time hop old stuff that we were putting out and we were kind of because Florio is around, we don't need deep in this stuff. Last year we already had uh one of our drafts going on my

our first draft of the year. I think Frank has several best balls done at this point and instead this year a little bit later on, maybe because we were so in a football which is fine, But this year Frank's first draft started. First best ball draft started yesterday. I literally pulled up fan graphs for the first time yesterday. So we're gonna start it now, and we're gonna start off. I mean, it's because the big shoes haven't fallen yet.

Machado hasn't signed, Harper hasn't signed. But we wanted to do a show as we like to do always, to start off really any season, baseball, football, basketball, What have you in saying, Hey, this happened. Did you know that? Because a lot of thanks fall through the cracks when you're preparing for football season. You're looking into free agents in football every single week, you're trying to set your line up or answering start sit questions. You missed stuff

and we can't talk about it because somebody cares. Now people care, and I think that's why we're gonna do that today. Here's a few things you missed from baseball season. Cool, Frank, Absolutely all right, So let's get right into that, and let's begin with someone near dear heart, Frank. Let's begin with new Yankee starting pitcher James Paxton. It wouldn't be the beginning of the fantasy baseball season without Greg wanting

to talk about a Yankee. By the way, don't draft with your heart and fantasy baseball, So there might be things that, like you have to take a grain of salt with when it comes to Greg Susman, because yesterday he was legitimately upset at me for not drafting Aaron Judge in the second round of Baseball Fan, to which he says, what kind of Yankee fan are you? Yeah, like what I agree? It was. It was the second fantasy baseball player you it was the second round. It

was great value. It's twelve team league, Greg, and it's best ball. You just don't think the best center in baseball. Let me do um. Anyway, So we'll start with James Paxton, who was traded to the Yankees. Ultimately, we'll just call it what it was. The Yankee top prospect and Justice Sheffield, who I do want to talk about a second um for James Paxton, the Big Maple is not as young as you were led to believe, the guy that is known for being really really good but also kind of

really really hurt. He's a left hander that has a lot of success against right handed hitters. A couple of things I didn't like doing my little bit of a deep dive here last year. A lot of more flyballs than ever that that doesn't play well into Yankee Stadium. Obviously home run. The flyball ratio slightly up again for James Paxton, again not something great for Yankee Stadium, and number you think will probably go up because you're gonna

play half your games in Yankee Stadium. What Altar surprised me is that the pitches the Paxson throws or fastballs, and the Yankees have what many believe is a anti fastball philosophy that they are going to focus on pictures that don't really throw fastballs all that often. Now it

doesn't always hold true. They they Jay hap is another one of these guys that throws a lot of fast bold when you do really and Lance Lynn through a lot of fastballs, so maybe it's gone a wave enough philosophy in the last year or so, but James Paxson doesn't really fit this philosophy that they've been working through with their signings and their free and their minor league

starters as well. Paxton goes away from that. So those are the things that I really noticed on first glass rank you mentioned the the injury pro nature I think is is where to start With James Packson. He's pitched four hundred and seventeen and one third endings over the past three years. It's been trending up the past couple of seasons, but it's still last year career high on sixty point one endings pitched six and the one you mentioned.

Some of the things that just kind of jump off the page right away with the battle ball profile when it comes to James Packson, the fact that normally forty six point seven percent groundball rate for his career GREG that was down um quite a bit last year the groundball rate at thirty nine point six percent, So at first glance, it is something that's going to play into your mind in Yankee Stadium. The fact that he gives up more fly balls and typically in his career has

been better against right handed batters um than lefties. So what I really liked about James Paxson going into last year was that in seventeen he had corrected that. Like he was awesome against lefties, he was basically him and Chris Sale who were just the best pitchers starting pitchers against left handed batters in baseball UM in batting average against or sixty three ops pitching against left handed batters right, those numbers in three thirty batting average eights against left

handed battersen. So again it was a small sample size. I think it's something like a hundred or a hundred fifty plate appearances. So obviously not a lot of teams play their lefties against him. But for whatever reason, he was getting hit harder by lefties last year than we're used to seeing. Alex if you have that um that that full screen that you could throw up now for people watching at home. I looked into this a little bit. These these are via fan graphs, right, so we have

heat maps here. This is from the pitching perspective greg Um. You can see on the left is where he kind of pitched to the lower third the outside quadrant where he was kind of painting that outside corner away from left hand batters, whereas in a lot of his pictures,

pitches to lefties were, you know, in the middle. They were on the outer third of the plate, but he was still in the middle much more than he was in So I think that's something that has to be corrected this year, and I have faith that the Yankees will will be able to do that. The problem here, Greg is if you want James Paxson, you you still have to draft him as your SP two. I don't know how comfortable I feel with that. It's just that's me. And currently his a DP is like in the in

the fourth, fourth round of there you go. It's fifty six, so fourth round of a fifteen team league. He's in the fifth round of twelve team league. Typically he's going to be your SP two. I think I would feel much more confident, obviously with him as my SP three, but it's not gonna happen. Obviously. We haven't done right starting pitcher off the board. Right now, we're in an NFBC a DP being drafted as an SP two, solid SP two, but he hasn't gone more than a hundred

and sixty and he's pitched ever in his career. He did have that career high last year. Um, but yeah, there are some morning signs. Fly ball rate you mentioned one point to nine home runs per nine also a career wors thirty percent hard hit rates, so allowed more hard contact last year. That was a career worst. On the home runs specifically, great, I mentioned what they were per nine. He allowed nine home runs in seen that

number one up to twenty three. So just at first glance, it doesn't seem like what he's doing is going to play well into Yankee Stadium. And I think the fact that his ADP is basically the same world was last year Greg, even with the move to Yankee Stadium, tells me that other people don't really know what to do with James Paxson either. I agree with that. I think what was interesting, smilar some other things that I looked

up that we're kind of similar in the past. Right, So his caper nine went up pretty significant, Lady from tem eleven point six, eight walks for nine went down just a little bit. His babbit basically the same. Let the base percentage basically the same K minus walk rate is always great, always great. I was reading an article via Paul Sporer on fan graphs and it was basically, over the past three years his home his K minus

walk percentage is sixth best on starting pictures. And he's very consistent with that, very consistent, and you could buy that, um the big number. And Frank and I really keep harping on it. He's the home runs and the flyball and and the flyballs in general, which you just see a lot more of. And I think we're just scared of when it comes to Yankee Stadium, like that home run of fly ball ration. I'm gonna say it again

seven you could basically double it last year. Bad luck, sure, but going in a Yankee stadium, that bad luck is going to get worse. And I think that's what a real reason to be very very nervous. Now. I Frank gave you the chart about left handers. I think most teams, in all honesty are too dumb to realize that. And I know they use analytics, but like, you're never going to see lineups that are stacked with lefties against James Paxton, even though he's better in the reverse flitt You're never

gonna see that. These managers are too old school when it comes to that, even though so many hused analytics, you're never gonna see it. So that doesn't scare me as much as what we're seeing about the launch angle, the flyballs and going the Yankee Stadium. That's what scares me the most. You said, he's around the sevente pitcher off the board. Do you have some of the guys that are going around him? And this is via NFBC ADP.

It's Ational Fantasy Baseball Championship. If you if you listen to h if you listen to Mattmodica, our friend Mettmodica at all last year, you have heard of the NFBC. I'm sure Matt Moodica has probably done twenty of these drafts. And this is via This is from the beginning of January, so January one through January one. Um, let's see acton seventeen pitcher off the board. It's picture overall, So Edwin Diaz is actually going ahead of him, So he's sixteenth

starting pitcher. Just ahead of him are Patrick Corbin, Noah synder Guard and Clayton Kershaw and Walker Bueller's just ahead of him. Those are four ahead of him behind him, and he's going to be a hype guy this year. Jameson Tye On, Steven Strasburg, Clevinger, another hype guy, Zach Granky, Jack Flaherty, I mean Flaherty, Clevinger, Tyne or met to me are guys that kind of stand out like in a similar tier, like their young starting pitchers and everyone's

expecting to like take another step for sure. Yeah, so you know, honestly, it is also behind him, you all honesty, it's probably right. Guy's probably where he should go. Like maybe you don't want to take that plunge. Maybe you want to get the guy earlier than that. That's fine, but that's probably where he should go. If you play in the twelve team league, you could get him in

the fifth round as your SP three. I believe that's if you start the Great Fantasy base you start with if you start with three, I got Paxton if you have if you have three starting pitchers in the first five rounds. The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation with which I was in last year, I won my individual league. I got Paxson as my SP three in that and it

was a Rhodo draft. I believe my first two pitchers were Aaron Nolah and you Darvish Harvish was obviously terrible, and then I got Paxson as my SP three in the fifth round. I agree with you, it's kind of seems like where he should go in terms of like the other names that he's around, and just kind of

looking at it right now, and it's worth mentioning. Just like on the surface, he's been much better in his career at safe Co and he has been on the road at safe Co in his career um three point three five e r A, and I think it's just last year. This might be just but three point three five year A last year in his career at home at safe Co, it is two point nine eight in fifty starts two ninety six and a third endings pitched two r A at home three point eight seven e

r A on the road. So there are things that he needs to fix from last year in terms of, you know, pitching lower in the zone, trying to induce more groundballs. It seemed like he might have been selling out a little bit to try and get more strikeouts last year that you see like in the Cape or nine, he had some monster performance, has had the no hitter. I think he had like a seventeen strikeout game, like

something massive like that. We know what his upside can be, and to be fair, his fit and x fit were both much lower than his three point seven six e r A. Steamer soundly alarmed for Steamer as him for a three point four six e r A this season a hundred and seventy two innings pitched. Both of those numbers seem a little ambitious to he was traded away for Justice Sheffield as I mentioned any interest in draft in Sheffield this year in one of these like fifty

team drafting holes, Definitely, I think he uh. He has obviously a much better opportunity to correct the starting rotation with the Marriner thingy thing with the game all right, when we come back on all the things happened this offseason, including one of the top first basement off board is now playing for a new team. Goldschmidt's up next, the Fantasy Best Friend's Red Daily Roado dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give you advice.

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how we can help you. Eight six six four eight four nine six two one eight six six four eight four nine six two one. That's eight six six four eight four ninety six one. Here is Area's calling the shots. Unless you're gonna just hand the ball straight up to God. If Casey mill is gonna be running around, I'd rather the ball in Drew Brees hand and let him do his thing. We sometimes crushed coaches for running, running, running,

and just taking the airt of the ball. But if I'm Sean Payton, I would have ran the ball three times, kick a field goal, rams, get the ball with like thirty seconds left, and I'll bank on my defense there week days a pm to eleven pm Eastern on the Fantasy Sports networking on your popular podcast Providers, Frankie Us. Today is terrible day because this is Dave Mann Steve Matthews Ben tour announcement that Greig, don't tell me you're going on another one of these. So you were disappointed

last time. It was very disappoted. Last disappointed because, as you know, I'm doing my bachelor party in Florida, and I was going to this. I was going to do it around you mean July. It's baseball game. Originally was gonna do in Tampa and potentially see the Yankees in Tampa. The Yankees whenever you want, Greg, that's the other thing Kees, whatever I want. Um. I'm not sure you and your Baskett party are dying to go to Tropic Canada exactly.

I don't really think we're gonna the Yanks me the Marlins is here like the Sting Rays, right or something. Probably not one of the things we were gonna do. We should see Dave Matthews band in West Palm Beach, just different location. Like it's kind of cool, but like the dates isn't exactly they were what I thought they were, which is not the dates I wanted. Um, So I don't know I'm gonna be able to make it this year. Oh gosh, what are we ever gonna do? I'm probably

just going somewhere else. I'm gonna be able to see Dave just not just not during my bachelor party week. Really, you could do anything except see Dave Matthews, Ben, How long are you gonna be there? Um? Think Thursday through Sunday, all the older almost almost the round. I would never do the rap around to you, Frank, can't do the old rap around. What are you? What's going on with you? What are you? What are you taking off? I feel like, I know, I feel like it's brewing. Probably I feel

like he's brewing. Are you gonna drop it at some point soon? I had I wanted to go visit our guy Florida. He's in the chat right now, he's listening and he's watching. I wanted to go visit Florio in Los Angeles in the month of February. It's kind of like a dry month super Bowl, and that's when you're going away. I'm going for that exact reason, like in between it's like the NBA All Star Break. It's like kind of like that, like that's what I'm doing, That's

why I'm doing it. I wanted to do that, right he told me you were going. Doesn't seem like it's gonna happen. You told me you were going to. Now there might be plants like go to Poland later on in the year. You visited that one. Yes, that's cool Inga's grandparents have like a fiftieth anniversary. When is that. Unfortunately, the thing is, it's like it's in the middle of August, which is prime fantasy football. So I don't know, I don't know what I'm gonna go on vacation. Hey, you

gotta do, you gotta do. You gotta go on vacation. It's better to clear your mind, you know, honestly, Yeah, but I don't know. Man. It's the biggest fantasy sport and it's like the biggest draft time of the year. Who's gonna do the white board series? If I'm not around in the middle of your recording recorded in earlier, it's all I just want you to remember, have fun first. It's disingenuous not to. You know, live your life and

be happy your life. You knew what's going. If you like to wage your on sports, you never have you want to try. I don't know what to bet d s I. They were waiting. They have wagering options for almost any sport you can think of, including sides, totals, and player props who you can utilize your daily fantasy skills without salary cap constraints. You can even wage your

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Now we're talking baseball. Feel better. I'm happy that it's cheering you up. Great, you know it's cheering me up. What effect that everyone in the chat is crapping all over d NB right now? So why are they gonna do that to me? I don't think says bachelor party like a bunch of dudes going to a Dave Matthews band cuts agree, and that's what a bachelor party is. Probably. I like to have your back on matters like this, you love you specifically, never have my back on on

matters like well, someone's got to defend you, Greg. You know, normally I'm there. Normally I'm there to defend you. I'm like, uh, for those people, we're gonna get back to baseball. But for those people who saw the videos Sunday Night Football on NBC, you could see the video of the get Back Coach with Sean McVeigh, which is awesome. It's basically a coach that's just there to physically move Sean McVeigh because it gets too animated and they don't want him

to run into rest and get a penalty. It's great. So that's why I'm here, Greg, I'm here to guide making sure that yeah, you're not getting you're not gonna crush out there by I'm I'm always crushed. I would rather go to David Busters than a d NBC loved Busters er. Hey man, I love the Busters to see after dB concert. Uh, I can't read the rest of it. I'm gonna read those huh. All right? Well, nevertheless, so the other what are the other big trades we wanted

to get to today? We do a little basketball a little later on as well, But what are the other trades that we wanted to talk about? Was Paul gold Schmiant headed over to St. Louis. You might have missed that as well, Like who is even traded for Frank? Yeah, he was traded for Carson Kelly, Shelby Miller and another lower name pop value in a couple of years. Shelly Miller. That's not right, I missed that up. That's not That's not Miller. It was the other gentleman that was on

the Cardinals last year that everyone was hyping up. It was Luke Weaver. Weaver, the guy who only throws a change up. Yes, I didn't draft him an So the new Shell basically all right, see if he could get it right with a human door in Chase Field. So we'll tell you about all those guys in a moment, But I need to get to Paul gold Ris and Kelly someone starting catcher for the Dimebads, Weavers and Dreams, Pible. I don't dread by Luke weaver Man. Yeah, I don't know.

I thought the Cardinals were gonna get more than this. I thought they were going to get one of these, one of these outfield prospect guys like the Dia did more than this. I thought the Dimebacks were gonna get more than this, like a Harrison Bader or a Tyler O'Neill. Like what they got. Listen they got, they got to post type Sleepers's wrong with that? Carson Kelly was the catcher of the future. Luke, Yeah, I thought this. I

thought there's a good goodbye Carson Kelly. It's like, just based on his minor league profile, there's nothing that stands out. He was an alright hitter. We've seen guys get better at the major league level. It's not impossible to happen. But I don't know. This doesn't excite me all that much. I int be the starting catcher. So in that sense, if you're playing the two catcher league, he's already on

your radar, absolutely, very very much. So now Paul Goldschman and I want to talk about Luke Weaver also in a moment. But like Paul Goldschman, here's the numbers. Home runs down three, not significantly, but they're down a bit, the runs down, r v I s down, We get it. He was a bad team. Here's a big number for you.

That always made Paul gold Schwartz still um stand out where than a lot of other players that were taking in that top five stolen basis, which we always thought was flukey, right, eighteen even if getting eighteen steals that's crazy, do that anymore. Last year seven seven stolen bases, the average down to to nine ov P slightly down to three nine again still really really good, and his bad was actually up from the previous season, not really off,

not really too far away um from his career mark. Remember, gold Smrit was in that miserable slump early on, so that second half of the year really much better as he got back to those standard numbers. Strike Outs were along the same line, the sorry walk percentage along the same lines, strikeout percentage slightly higher than it has been in the past. What I'm worried about, um Paul gold Schmidt here is certainly the the new environment UM with

the Cardinals, No, you were dor obviously is better. But what I'm worried about when it comes um to Paul gold Schmidt, was that at home in a fly ball ratio slightly awful, little bit hard hit percentage was actually, uh, the more I look at this, Frank More, I'm just like not all that excited about gold Schmidt. I can't really explain why I had it before, and I don't remember why. But I'm not overly in love of gold Smight like I used to be. Yea Goldschman now going

in the second round. Not used to that normally a guy that is consensus, you know, top five, pick top ten. You're looking at his ADP right there, NFBC ADP right around pick nineteen twenty. He is the first first basement off the board as of right now, him and Freddie Freeman seemingly going back to back. The one worry for me, Greg, I have a couple of worries here, but I'll start off with the strikeouts. That's something that was hurting him early on in the season. He was striping out more

than ever before. And Paul gold Schmidt is not a spring chicken by any means. He's thirty one years old. He'll turn thirty two in September. So this is age, you know, thirty one season for for most of the year um and the striking out more He's getting up there a little bit. Age was chasing pitches more than usual, which I think helped um that that slump that he was in early on in the season. I think the strikeouts were really a big part of that. And you

mentioned what he did in the second half. You don't even have to look to the second half. Greg from June one on three thirty batting average four twenty O b P six O two o ps, thirteen percent, walk crate percent, strikeout rate, forty eight percent, hard hit rate six percent, line drives twenty four point five percent home

run to fly ball ratio. But normally typically a guy who has played much better at home in his career, I think the human or affected him last year to start the season, the human or the strikeouts, chasing pitches UH to thirty eight, batting average seven eight two o p s at home last year. It's not like Paul Goldschmidt, He's normally much much better at Chase Field. But this is a negative park shift factor. Even with the human door.

The human door, Chase Field produced more runs last year on a per game basis, more home runs last year, UM than St. Louis. So I think it's a negative park change here. The stolen bases have declined, and stolen bases really comes down to organizational philosophy, right, And you look at last year the Cardinals had sixty three stolen bases as a team. They were twenty six in Old Baseball, and the Diamondbacks had seventy nine they were fourteenth. So

it's you know, is it organizational? Is it? Is it personnel that you have? It's like what came first a chicken or the egg. Um, I don't know that he's gonna get back to like twenty stolen basis, He's probably like in this ten range, will say, I think the batting average is pretty safe at least two eighty six batting average in six straight years, greg Um. But I do I do worry about the change. Like it's not always you know, a guy in a new place automatically.

You know, we've like sating. Look look at Marcello Zuna for example, you know, like and he it's not like he he was going to typically what we would expect a better hears Ballpark from Miami to to to Bush Stadium in St. Louis, and he performed a lot worse. So you know it's it's a guy of his career in Arizona for sure. Now it's not like Zuna had the level of consistency that we've seen from Paul Goldman year had broken out the year before, definitely, but I

understand that. But like, was that huge landown without question, I like to Marcello Zuna last year, but it was one almost a one year breakout. We didn't see him do it again. Paul Golden, we've seen do it again

and again and again and again and again. I don't know that you're gonna get the bottom falling out of Paul Goldschmandt here like he's going in the second he's going in the second round, which you said we're not used to seeing from him, and it's true, and he's not a spring chicken and that true, But at that second round a DP would you take him. That's where I struggle because I mean, as of right now, like

I don't I don't love it. I just think I feel like in Rhodo, i'd want to go in a different direction, like I got like Stanton for example, right if you play in Rhodo, you need five outfit you gotta fill five outfield spots. I think first base typically is a deeper position. It is this year as well. I feel like I would just go in like an outfield direction or a starting picture like Ultman's going just ahead of guys like Standing, he's going ahead of Kluber, Verlander,

Charlie Blackman. I feel like I would take one of those starting pictures or outfielders. I think it's a fair value. Like if would it surprise me one bit if he ends up hitting you know, to five five home runs and steals ten bases again and you know he's close to a hunder robbe Eyes and a hunter runs. No, wouldn't surprise me at all. And if he does that and he returns first round value in the second round,

he's also a guy that wouldn't surprise me. But if you're I think I would just take an outfielder or starting picture just based on like positional depth round, if you're buying into that contract, your narrative, he isn't a contract year and this is the one they are. But it's it's tough, right and the Cardinals have had some success doing that obviously with guys like Utt Holiday come to mind. But he's in the last yeervice contract and this is the last big contract that he's going to get.

So if you're buying into the narrative, he's there, right, Like that's potentially a thing. Just saying now, out of the names you mentioned, just to give my quick opinion here the starting pitchers, I get it right, like I'm someone's gonna want to grab a hitter in the first round of the storting pitcher in the second round, So for that, I'm with you. But Paul gold Schmidt and Charlie Blackman the exact same age, right there were. Blackman's

thirty there by two years old. Black was actually slightly older. I'd rather have gold Schmitt than Blackman. I think gold Schmidt will have the higher O b P. I think the averages will be similar. Strike out rate is a little bit better for black Men than is gold Schmidt. Walk rates a little bit better for gold than it is black men. I think the stolen based numbers at this point in their careers pretty similar. Runs score will definitely be higher for black men. I think RB I

is theoretically should be higher for gold Schmidt. I think the home runs are kind of close. I'm gonna I'd rather have Golds for than black men. I haven't dove deep into black men yet like I have for gold Schmidt UM, but just on the surface, it's because of

positional depth. That's like the only reason why I'm saying, like, that's what you know, if you're you're trying to find uh five Outfielers versus you know, you're trying to you're trying to find the like you know, slight differences between these guys at this point already early on UM And it's just like a hundred and at least a hundred eleven runs scored for years in a row for Charlie bit like run scored that's so hard to come by, definitely,

and it gives you a fair batting average every single year. The course field factor, great line up year and a year out does a guy changing teams it were? It worries me a little bit who would rather drop between him and Freddie Freeman. I still think Freddie Freeman has

untapped Tex. The Freddy Freeman guy. If he put together his seventeen and eighteen what he was doing in teen, uh, the year that he got hurt, if he put that kind of power production together with what he did in I just feel like he has this three hundred batting average, forty homer like twenty rb I season and I feel like he has that. I feel like he has that

potential home runs in a hundred and seventeen games last year. Yeah, but then sixty two games last year and that was what was his whole run of flyball ratio last day? Like this up the thing? The thing with Freddy free ratio is down five percent. It was it was very low. It was fourteen point nine percent, which is kind of by his career. Dude, It's so it's he's not an extreme flyball. He reverted back to being a line drive

hitter last year, which at his core is what he is. Like, he's a natural spray to all fields, line drive hitter, doubles guy. Actually more lines drives last year and he hit every before US, but the two years before seventeen. He was buying into the launch angle like he was. He was actively trying to hit more flyballs and hit more home runs, and it was coming to fruition. Like, seriously, that's home runs in a hundred and seventeen games overall,

a you know, a hundred and fifty game pace. That's like I would rather have still feel like he has untapped. I'd rather have gold Goldman has done for longer. He's also also changing places. I understand that's not enough for me. Okay, the other side of the trade before we move on, I know UH was the NBA next. We also wanted to get into the UH trade. But before we do, I think we have to talk about Luke Weaver, which is the other side of the trade. Luke Weaver, as

you said, basically only through change ups. Last year, he was going very similarly only but he's just like a two pitch picture like fastball change He was going in the very similar bought James Paxton and honestly, right like that was kind of the the not even behind James past on the top twenty starting pitcher. Luke Weaver was going that same range as Louise Castio. He was like a next one. He was like SP to thirty because like that, it was like an SP three that you

thought was going to take the next step. Okay. Paxton was a little bit higher than excuse me, Um, he was more. Paxton was more in the Aaron Nola ranges. That is that faris say yes, okay. So then these guys, these guys were a little bit later on the Louise Castillo's um and the Luke Weavers. But they expected major breakouts from guys like this, and it didn't happen with Luke Weaver. I think people waited and they waited and they waited, and it ultimately never came. How come, well,

partially what I said with he's kind of predictably. He threw his curveball. He tried to throw his curveball more. Last year, this is Luke Weaver, but predominantly fastball change up. Wasn't getting nearly the same amount of strikeouts that he was uh the year before. But if you remember last year when we were talking about this in he had a ten point seven four case per nine, it's because it wasn't going deep into games. Luke Weaver was getting a lot of strikeouts. But if you look at the

swinging strike rate. It was nine point. Swinging strike er didn't change all that much last year, but the strikeouts dropped tremendously, So he's gotta incorporate that herball more. He needs a third pitch. The fastball change up is is a little bit too predictable. I think people had too high expectations for Luke Weaver last Looke. We were also walked over three and a half pree game last year.

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a tem percent discount. That's a daily Rotor dot Com. Good on go Premium, click on golf and enter the promo code golf nineteen for a ten percent discount anything else on Luke, we were Frankie now you mentioned it as we were going to break, just touching on the lack of control that was last year, you know, over three and a half walks Bryant. Look, this is a

this is a reclamation project for the Arizona Diamondbacks. If they could find a way to turn them around, get him closer to where he was last year, uh the year before, work on that curveball a little bit. I just think he was. He was a little bit over hyped last year, you know, being drafted inside the top thirty starting pitchers around that range with like Luis Castio, um Zach Godley as well. So what we'll see what

they can do. I will say this, I believe his a DP is like not exa e stint right now in NFBC. It is so I don't know, you're the math, but he's going around guys like Drew Steck and rider like Minor Nico like he's going super late. So if you play in these you know, draft and hold leagues or fourty round fifty round drafts. He's going super late. If you have faith that the Diamondbacks can figure him out, then you get him out of great value right now,

probably the rest of draft. See, I don't I can't imagine people um anything with Carson Kelly before we want the Reds. Look, it's just we play in two catcher leagues. I know there's been some debate in like Fantasy Baseball Twitter one catcher versus two catcher leagues, Like all right, well, it's kind of like the old guard just saying, like, you know, it's been two catchers forever, why are we going to change it to one now just because catcher suck.

It's the same debate about tight ends, right like should we just take away the tight end position and fantasy football because there's only three really good ones? No, you need to learn how to be better and you you gotta find those middle round tight ends that break The same thing goes for catchers. I mean, yes, it's harder to find the late round catchers that break out. Is it impossible to find a guy that you know gives

you positive value? I don't think it's impossible, but it's worth mentioning a guy like Carson Kelly in two catcher leagues. He was one of the top catching prospects for a few years now. The Cardinals expected him to be the uh, the successor to YadA yr Molina. It seems like Yadia Maline is never gonna go away, and you have to give something up to get something. So you want to get Paul golchmant, you have to trade bad Carson Kelly. To me, he's just kind of like a two sixty

two seventy home runs. I guess maybe he grows into it a little bit more like experience wise, um, but that's where he's at right now. I see Carson Kelly, Frankie, one of those guys that like you pick up when he gets hot and you plug him in and then you drop him. And I mean, in one catcher league you might do that, but like in catual league, he's

probably second catcher exactly, and there's nothing wrong with that. Okay, let's move on to the last day we're gonna talk about on today's program, and that is Yaw and Alex would headed over to Cincinnati. What was that trade, frank It was ya Cel Pweague, Matt Kemp and Alex would too, since four basically a salary dump. They did get prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray and Homer Bailey, who was also released. Um So, I'm not sure if Homer Bailey

is gonna land somewhere else. Former favorite of Adam Rownas. Remember when you guys used to do the show every single year, Adam Rynas was all over Homer Bailey. Probably not on him as much anymore admittedly, but Yassi l Peag, Matt Kemp and Alex would too since Cincinnatti sneakily having a lot of these like SP two SP three guys in their rotation now, guys like Tanner, row Ark, Alex Wood, they trade for Sonny Gray, they still have Louise Castile. Like,

there's some upside with these guys. It's interesting what they're doing, Like, they haven't had pitching for years, so it's good to see them trying to address it. Their outfield is also, I mean, they have a bunch of guys. They have Pweague, they have Kemp, they have Scott Schebler, they have Jesse Winker, they have a lot of guys. Really Wilton now Gondo, he's with the Kansas City Royals. Are celer names. Scott Chadler can play centerfields, Okay, alright, it's a lot of yeah,

well a lot. Matt Kemp, we know he's not a good fielder. An ideal fit for him would have been the American League, so he could be a designated hitter. But it's not gonna be the case here. And since he and obviously you can't play him at first base because Joey Vado is there. Um, it just kind of sucks for Jesse Winker because Jesse Winker, to me, is like this guy who's like on the precipice, like he's there. He's like mini Joey Vado, like great plate discipline, doesn't

strike out, walks a lot. It kind of saw him, like a couple of years ago, taking that step into power, like the final month of the season, the second half, and I don't know, I like maybe him and Kemp were gonna like tune. It's just frustrate so for me, the to Kemp, I don't know. For me, there's a

lot of names. There's a lot of names there and get the headliner and everyone's gonna be so excited about pre this year, and I think rightfully, so, really, how come because it's finally going to be in position to have regular bats. Greg and look at what he's done the past couple of years with in l A with them, you know, kind of jerking him around, to be honest, and he kind of brought some of it makes sense, Yeah,

it does make sense. But the talent, if you can get his head on right and maximize his talent, like it's definitely there. The talent is there. For hundred and fifty two games, twenty eight home runs, fifteen stolen bases. Not a lot of players do that nowadays, Like you're trying to find stolen bases as much as you can while not completely depleting your home run output. YAsO Page is one of those guys. And the last year home

runs and fifteen stolen bases only five games. The Dodgers has had too many mouths to feed, you know, from there, trying to find ways to get maximums in the lineup. And Cody Bellinger and they have all these outfielders and he's not playing every day, and he misses some time with injury and then there you go, he only plays five games. It's not gonna be the case in Cincinnati. He's gonna go to Cincinnati. He's gonna play. He's gonna play every single day, and it's a great hitters ballpark.

Are you are we sure he's going to play every single day? Are you sure? In my opinion, I'm sure he's gonna play. Why wouldn't he. Scott Cheveler better than him? Is Matt Kemp better than him? It is Jesse Winker better than him? To me? Is going to play every single day. And if you look at the bat the batter ball profile last year from week it was one of his best thirty eight percent hard hit rate, so

he was hitting the ball more. I also looked into his launch angle, which was a little bit higher than it has been in years past, so lifting the ball a little bit more. You see that with the line drive rate was by far a career high. UM. The home run fly ball ratio was as highest since that breakout season when he first burst onto the scene in UM And I just think, you know, he's he's in a great hits ballpark now, you know, you look at park shift factors here moving from Los Angeles to to

the great American small park here. Not to mention in a preedom good lineup, Greg with Joey Vado and all those outfielders that I mentioned, and Scow, Jeannette who played very well last year, and Ajo Henio Suarez. This is a good line up, Greg we He's in position here and you see it in the a DP already he's going pick in that range in a fifteen team league. He's going on like that round six seven turn. I

think it's warranted. I think could be an outfield I think he's being drafted as like an outfield three right now. But he has outfield to upside. He could legitimately be top twenty. And I think I'm bullish, and I think a lot of people are going to be great. I think he has he has top fifteen outfielder upside. It's interesting. I he wented out what he did in that five games, and you're right and and to be rightfully excited about what he could do over eighty one games in Cincinnati,

I get it, Docinetti. Not a team that's not a team that's afraid to run either. They'll let him run, yes they will, But he's never run more than he did last year. Sure, but that was a career high fifteen ever surpassed that number. I means he to me, he's safe for at least twelve to fifteen. Here's what you know of. This is an analysis. This is just

how I'm feeling. Ye preas a dude that has the ability to piss a lot of people off, right, Like he's the way he plays the game as a people as a the ability to piss a lot of people off, and much of him being benched over the last few years. He said, the Dodgers jerking him around like the Dodgers, like the Reds of jerked around Scottie Cheveler. It's he's on doing in a way. And Peek being a year away from free agency, I could see Pui being a me guy. And that's just that's another reason to write.

Ye Peak strike you as the guy who's like to take a gonna take a crapload of stairs. I didn't say that, but I did, like, he strikes me as a guy I want to get paid, right, Like he's gonna go out there and he was in a bib. The narrative. He's a guy that narrative couldn't speak for. And you know he's had a safe you know, for what it's worth. The batting average in his career to seventy nine. He's been a safe too sixty three, two sixties,

seven to three years. He's just playing every single day and knowing that you're showing up to the stadium and you're gonna be in the lineup, and you don't have to worry about when you're playing, and and all these other factors that come into play with the Dodgers trying to trying to limit him or whatever it is. He's gonna play every day, and it's in a contract year. I think he has to seventy thirty home run, fifteen

to twenty stolen base upside this year. Yes, Also, you gotta remember it's the only twenty eight years old, Like he's been around for a very long time at this point. Um, but he's still just twenty eight years old, and everyone's gonna be on. And I'm telling you, Greg, that guy who the outfiels, he's going around Frankie Hold for you, Pui, as I mentioned, going pick ninety eight eight right now, he's going just behind Eddie Rosario, Mitch Hanneger, Nicholas Castellanos,

going just ahead of Nelson Cruiz. But that's because he's utility. Only the outfield guys are Justin Upton, Hellick Smith. Interesting, that's just stolen basis right there. Um, and that's a great interesting group of Eddie Rosario, Mitch Haniger, Upton in fourd ooh. I think that. I think that's a good group. There's still like some untapped potential with some of those guys,

like can fourd oh could still get there. Definitely, it's still and we kind of saw in the second half lest year Upton pretty safe to fifty home runs I hate, but he's great for Rhodoy be a week production is very inconsistent, but he's he's he's great for Rhodo. Eddie Rosario a guy who's also you know, coming around as well, stepping into his own you know, home runs, solid, batting average, not gonna sink you. Mitch Haniger kind of broke out last year. Does he have another level he could get to?

You gotta worry about protection in the lineup now. The Mariners shipped out a lot of pieces. They still do have Edwin and Karnacion, but I'd be surprised if he's part of the team. Um, you know, Spring Karna, I'm gonna be there, really, you know, yeah, ship him out for something I don't I don't think. So with that, we're gonna sign off on YouTube for now and do some basketball off YouTube, So make sure you subscribe, watch, listen Fantasy Full Friendies up Nextext to Cory Parson, Jim Day,

and Chris ben trump Um tomorrow on the show. Frankie, Well, I want to start off kind of finishing up this trade. There are a lot of pieces here, Um in particular, Unless you want to do that now and not do the NBA stuff's up to you. Alex Wooden, Mattcamp mm hm, we can do that now. Sorry, let's just keep it all baseball. Fine, maybe we'll work in some basketball tomorrow.

Trying to listen to you the people I know, there was a few people last week that asked us to talk a little bit more about basketball, so we can touch on season long things, you know, guys who are over performing in DFS, so on and so okay. So then wrapping up this trade, Alex would and Matt Kemp

also go over to Cincinnati. But when it comes I'm wanna start with Kemp and then get to wood We'll Kemp see enough playing time to warrant drafting your guests is as good as mine right now your favorite website roster resource already using the roster resource as Matt Kemp hitting fifth in the lineup as of right now, playing left field, being the starting left fielder for this so

Jesse Winker the outfielder on the bench. That was my question, who can kind of mix in give a day off here to to Schvler, give a day off here to Kemp. You know, I said, uh, Plea's gonna play every day for the most part. I do think he'll play every day, but they'll probably give him, you know, a day here and there. That's how Jesse Winker is gonna get hit at pass And you know it's not like Matt Kemp is like the model of health. Yeah, so you know,

and you get enough at bats in this ballpark. I mean, does he does he need to does he need to play every day? And it's kind of baked into his ADP, Like people don't have high expectations for Matt Kemp already, and he's going over under three twelve an ADP for Matt Kemp right now over I guess then would over be like him over You're going pick three three with Matt camp That's fantastic value. You get him for nothing, you kind of plug him in. Don't really interesting, like

I know, like he's a dude. That's not a great dude. He's had some personality issues really everywhere he's game. When he played last year, though, I'm pretty damn good. Last year August he was an m VP, he carried the Dodgers man made the All Star Team. UM Homer's last year eighty five rubies batted two nineties. There's a guy you could draft in your reserve rounds in these deeper leagues.

You don't even have to draft him as your fifth outfielder because frankly, you get them later than that to ninety last year, twenty one home runs, and you're putting this guy in Cincinnati. But your original question is the one that matters most. How much is he gonna play? But for nothing? I don't care. So yeah, at that point,

you're buying all upside. There's no risk back into a three forty three a DP because you know if if you draft him and it turns out you drafted the first two weeks, like the only place he could go is up correct. So if you draft him an he plays one time in the first two weeks. You'll drops, Yeah, I love that as a DP Frank big fan of that. All right, last piece of this was Alex Would going over now. Alex Would also not the picture, uh, the model of consistency when it comes to health. He was

a guy that was fantastic two years ago. A lot of people were on him. Last year didn't work nearly as well. He said he should be had him on his team together. We certainly did. He said he's going to go back to so the things that he does well this year, what does that mean? Well, you said he's not the model of health in terms of consistency, and you're right, but he has consistently pitched a hundred and fifty when endings two years in a row. So

that's basically where he's like, he'll take that. I think he's a guy that he'll take that. Depending on him for a hundred and fifty and he's pitched. The problem that I have with Alex Wood is every single year he starts off well in terms of like fastball velocity and then just tanks like as a sea. That's why you can argue is he better as a bullpen arm? Because you know a guy that whenever he tries to stretch out throughout a season, remember, and got off to

that phenomenal start. He was great. First half of the year was like a sub two e r A. He was awesome the first month of the season. He's throwing. By his last start of the season, his average fastball felocy. And that's just that's a yearly occurrence with Alex Wood about last year, it wasn't even there to start the year. His first start average fastball velocity nine point three, next

start eighty nine point six. By the end of the season, at the end of the season, he was actually throwing harder. And you know what, these were games where he was actually in the bullpen eighty eight point nine miles per hour in his last start of the year. Um, that came on September. So and then they kind of transitioned. So you know, you can argue that Alex would based on his herkey jerky delivery on he loses fastball velocity, can you still have some value, Yes, I think so.

You know, he's a guy who's also going super late right now in drafts, Alex would going to a D so you know, one of your end of the end of your fantasy rotation arms here, but he still pitches to a below four ear a like proto. He's fine, and fifty innings of a sub three seven five e R a decent whip one point two. It's all right. It's just he's never gonna get Frenzy's up next, Corey, Jim and Chris or Frank Stantheon and Greg Sausenday. So

much for watching the Fantasy best Friends Forever. We'll do it all again tomorrow. We