CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND PREVIEW, PREDICTIONS, AND MORE...

You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Fantasy Best Friends Forever? What's Up? Everybody? Booked the inside studio of thirty four the Fantasy Best Friends Forever Friday edition, January eighteen. Getting set up for the NFL Conference Championships in the City Chiefs hosting in New England Patriots and the New Orleans Saints Hope hosting the Los Angeles Rams. Will take you up to the one pm hour when the Fantasy football frenzy will begin. As always, this week, Reg Sussman

still out with the flu, still tending to that. I expect Greg to be back next week and that means Jim Day is here. Jim, how are you doing, buddy? How did you sleep? Hey? I'm doing good. Brac how are you doing. That's Friday afternoon. We only got another day and a half to wait for some football. Yeah, it feels like it feels like it's been forever since

we've since we've had some games. And I think part of that reason was, I don't know if you feel this way to Jim, last weekend's games, they just weren't that great. I mean, look, if you if you were a Chiefs fan, if you were Patriots fans, so on and so fourth, yeah they were great for you, but like not really any close games the Saints and the Eagles. To be honest, was it was the most competitive game? I'd say, yeah, it was definitely the best game of

the weekend. I agree, and you're right. It just didn't live up to the expectations we all seem to have for it because we all thought, you know, all the games would be competitive, and that was absolutely not what happened. Definitely not. You know, I referenced the Rams at Saints. We're gonna break down both of these games, the Chiefs and the Patriots as well. We'll break them down from betting perspective. I have a few props I want to

throw at Jim. We'll talk about dfs. You know, guys that you could uh save some salary with this weekend as well. I mean, we'll get into all of it, um, So I guess you know, we'll jump right in, Jim. We we'll start off with the Rams and the Saints. Here. The Saints lane three and a half points at home right now. The over under four of this game is fifty six and a half. Last time they met, the New Orleans Saints won this one five. They combined for

eighty points in that game. But something has happened from that point to now. You know, I think it was right around Thanksgiving for the Saints and then for the Rams. It was after that thrilling Monday night game against the Kansas City Chiefs. They had a bye week and they came back and ever since, to be honest, both offenses have not been great. So uh, you know, I think a lot of people are going to flock to the over because they see fifty six and a half. The

game is indoors. There are a lot of betting trends that say, you know, it's like the last the last Eighth Dome games in the playoffs have gone over. The number easily gone over. The number Um, but something has happened with these teams over the you know, the final six eight weeks of the season, Jim, where the offense is just not clicking as well as it was earlier on in the season. Well, there's a couple of you know, you're talking about betting trends here, and you're right there.

The offenses that have changed. Um, you know, the both teams have gone to a more grinded out, running aisle game. Uh. You know, basically at the tail end of the season. And that's what we saw last week as well. We saw them come out and grind it out on the ground and do most of their damage that way. Keep the the offense or at least try to keep them off the field for as much time as we can. And you know, we're looking at this game and looking at the betting frends like he was talking about, Um,

almost all the trends point to the over. Uh. You know there's a few. The The over is seven oh in the Saints last six home playoff games. Um. The home team is a perfect seven and oh against the spread in the last seven meetings between these clubs. Uh. The over is five and one in the last six matchups in New Orleans. You know what my best better the weekend is that this game goes under. Jim, you

know what's crazy enough? I was I was hoping that you would say, you know, you would just keep pumping up the over, and I was basically gonna do what you just did. I was gonna say. One of the bets that I like most this weekend is going under with this game because you just look, the Saints defense

has turned a corner. I mean, like you want to talk about correlation with Alright, the offense hasn't been great, but this defense has come a long way since Week one, when you know they got you know, they gave up forty plus points to the Tampa Bay Bucks. Like there's been a complete uh switch in philosophy here for the New Orlean Saints. They're not you know, they're not airing the ball out down the field. They're not having monster players, they're not putting up a ton of points. Their defense

is getting it done. I looked into this the last eight games at the Saints have played outside of Week seventeen against the Panthers, where they rested everybody. They were allowingly just fourteen and a half points per game, Jim. So the defense has certainly showed up. And this game features the number one and number two run blocking offensive lines in football. That's per football outsiders, you know the grade run blocking, pass blocking. These both offensive lines were great.

We we saw that last week to uh, not not as much with the Saints against the Eagles, but with the with the Rams against the Cowboys a defense coming to that game, the Cowboys have been great against the run all year, Jim, and the Rams. The Rams offensive line was just pushing them around. You look at what what Todd Gurley and C. J. Anderson were able to do together. They combined for what somewhat two thirty two

forty rushing yards in that game. So, I think we see a lot of running the football here on both sides, and you know, kind of playing keep away a little bit here. And we've seen long drives from the Saints. To remember last week they had an eleven minute drive, Jim, eleven minute drive against the Eagles. I think we can see a lot of long drives in this game as well, a lot of keep away. I think Jehan McVeigh and the Rams kind of want to I don't I don't

know that he wants to have Jared Golf exposed. One might like, I don't know if that's the right term, but in this game against one, I think they just want to run the football. Is that is that part of the reason why you're leaning to the under in this game well as Frew reasons. Like I said, you know, they have definitely gone to a more grinded out, you know, running the ball offense, and both defenses are basically underrated.

Both defense pretty good, pretty good, and you know, I just expect that they're gonna want to keep the ball out of the other hands. No, I don't think the Rams want to get into a shootout with Drew Brees. You don't want to get Drew Brees into that mentality where you have to pin him his ears back and he has to throw, because Drew Brees is Drew Brees. You you get him into that mindset and he'll just pick you apart all game long. I like Jared Goff and Goff would have a good game. I just don't

think if you're the Rams, that's what you want to do. So, you know, running the ball, especially with the success they've been having, uh, you know, not only with Gurley but also with C. J. Anderson coming into town and running like crazy. Uh, there's no reason to try and get

into a shootout with this Saints offense. So the best thing you can do is have success early running the ball and then you know, use it to create some other plays the jet sweep and you know those kinds of things coming off of that good running, solid start and keep the Saints offense off the field. Um. You know, as far as the Saints gope, that's the kind of

thing they want to do as well. And like you said, they didn't have as much success last week as the Rams did, but you know, Philadelphia's front played a lot better than Dallas is did, which to me it was kind of amazing since, like you said, Dallas was great all year, but they just got blown up last week. How about them Cowboys? Jim Day speaking of the Cowboys and the Eagles defenses, you're right, Uh, it's just the Rams were able to just push around that defense and

basically run wherever they are. Uh. So it seems like we're both in agreeants on the under here right now. Fifty six and a half over under. UM, I don't think that that has really moved up or down since it's it opened it. They both opened identical and minustry and over under fifty seven identical. That's how he started a few trends that I've seen regarding the game the side here and we'll get into that now, Jim. We can kind of break down who we like um for

the game. Sean Payton and Drew Brees now six and oh in the Superdome in the playoffs in their careers together in those games, Drew Brees fourteen to two touchdown to i NT ratio. So, I mean that's pretty much been the m O four Drew Brees in his career, especially inside the Supernome, just doesn't turn the ball over all of that much. You do have some ball hawks on the other side there with a key to leave and Marcus Peters. But Marcus Peters giveth and take it.

And we saw that in the first matchup against the New Orleans Saints where Michael Thomas basically just you know, he run a muck. He ran a muck all over Marcus Peters did whatever he wanted. Marcus Peters likes to take chances. He liked you. He likes to try and go for like this pick six ball. But because of that he bites on double moves and he gets beat beaten deep for these long passes. So that's something to

pay attention to here. Also another trend home teams in conference championships the last five years Tennan No straight up eight and two against the spread. And I know on the morning after Corey Parson he likes to he likes to push up against Gabe when Gabe brings up betting trends. And I actually agree with Corey on this because I don't think that every trend, every betting trend is created equal.

I mean, there are some crazy ones out there where you know, if you if you go to uh, if you go to covers dot com and you look at like the matchups, they have a bunch of awesome trends, but they also have crazy stuff, Jim. They have. They have like the rams are six and one against the spread when running for ninety yards the previous week. Like there's some stuff that you kind of have to like. Okay, let's let's let's pick and choose what we actually want

to use here. But I think the conference championship home teams tennant Oh the last five years eight and two against the spread. I think that does hold some weight, especially when you look at the home field advantage that the Saints and Sean Payton have had inside the super Dome over the years. I just I'm gonna take the home team here. I'm gonna take Threw Breeze. And you know it hurts a little bit, um because I do have a preseason ticket with the Rams. We've spoken about that.

I just I think that the Saints are the better team here. I think experience comes into play here with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. I'm laying the three and a half with with the New Orleans Saints. Yeah, I am too, And I'm sorry to say because I have that same ticket. We lost our tickets with the Charges last week, and I think we lose it with the Rams this week. But hey, you know, great season no

matter what happens. But that being said, look for all the reasons that you're talking about the experience, all the numbers, especially Saints at home have been huge, uh for their entire career. Basically since Breeze has gotten there, they've been grade at home. Um. They love that fast track and they have the weapons to play on it. That's what the team is built for. So I agree with you. I think Sean McVeigh will come out with some new rakles and try to try to give this defense a

little bit of fits. I just don't know if it's gonna be very successful. I think, you know, Breeze and company have more than enough to cover that three and a half spread. Jim, something interesting that I was talking to Dane Martinez last night spitting speeds. You can watch the Fantasy Freestyle here on the network. I know Dane's got some other things coming up. Has hosted the Rotal Experts in the Morning and f s T. So make sure you follow Dane and all the work that he's

doing and putting out there. You brought up an interesting scenario to me. A lot of people when the Rams were riding high bought in, and we did so before the season, but a lot of people have Super Bowl tickets for the Rams. Now we're at the point already where you can hedge this. Normally, you know, you'd wait to the Super Bowl where the Rams are in the Super Bowl, and you can, you know, take the other two, you take the Chiefs and you can kind of figure

out the math and you can hedge it. Well, we're already at the point where if you have a RAM super Bowl ticket you can hedge them now based on how much you know, based on the wage that you have on them to win the Super Bowl. You kind of gotta figure out the math yourself. I think it's worth throwing out there, and I thought it was brilliant for Day to bring that up to me because I hadn't even thought about it. But at this point, you can hedge if you have a RAM super Bowl winning

ticket with the New Orleans Saints this week. Oh absolutely, And it's definitely something I've been thinking about myself. So yeah, that's a good point. Um. You know, if you're really like us, thinking that the Rams can't get through, then definitely taking a shot on the Saints at that point is still good business and definitely not a bad move to make. Uh. You know, it's not like I put a ton of money on the Rams or the Charges

back in preseason. I'm pretty sure they were just twenty five dollar bets, so you know, it's not like I got a ton to lose, but I probably will take a little something on the side with the Saints just in case. I think if the Saints get there, they're gonna be hard to beat you. I just wanted to get into a few player props here on the way. But wait before you do that, though, you started mentioning

about what Daton has coming up. But I do want to get this out there that he actually he has a new show starting next Monday morning with Joe Ranieri, UM called the Make It Rain Show. Um, that's gonna be on on starting Monday morning from six to nine on the f M T S Y network. So keep that in mind, Folcus. Definitely, that's what I was Ferrands. He's got some stuff coming up. I didn't know if I can officially announce it yet, so U but yes, I mean it's all right. It looked. Hey, Jim, you

can't cry over spilt milk. It's out there now. So weekday morning six to nine am, you will be able to watch Spit and Speeds and hear him in the morning. Once again, nobody told me I couldn't. Hey, what's the saying it's better to uh, it's better to ask forgiveness. I don't know, sing It's something like that. It's better to ask forgiveness and to ask permission. There you go. What Jim said, Um, I gotta work on my sayings.

I'll look him up during the break, Jim. The prop that stood out to me most here was Alvin Kamar over thirty seven and a half receiving ours. I think there are a few other that you can here. Whatever the Robert Woods receptions and receiving yards prop is, I

think that makes sense. I don't think that the Rams throw the ball all that much in this game, but I was on Robert Woods over five and a half receptions last week that came through, and I do think the place to target the Saints defense is in the slot, specifically against p J. Williams, their slot corner. I think

he is the weakest of their secondary. You look at the outsides for the Saints defense, you have Marshawn Lattimore, you have Eli Apple, And I'm not gonna say it's all on Eli Apple, but you can kind of see like when the Saints defense kind of made that shift where everything started to turn, it was kind of, uh, in conjunction with Eli Apple joining their team. So perhaps, um, you know, they were getting burned on the other side side of the field a lot earlier on the season.

But I think Eli Apple has made a difference Robert Woods over his receptions and yardards makes a lot of sense, meaning Alvin Kamara over thirty seven and a half receiving yards. Jim, we know the past for rush staff, the Los Angeles Rams bring with Aaron Donald and Dominican Sue Dante Fowler, so on and so forth. We've heard this for years now. The way to beat the pass rushes a lot of dump off quick passes. Alvin Kamara, I do think that that can happen? Or were there any props that sit

out to you? Do you like any of the ones I brought up? Um? Any touchdown props? Like like, who do you who do you expect to score in this game? Because I could give you the odds on those as well. Jim. Let's see, I think Sammy Watskins is gonna get a wait, wrong game. I'm we're talking to other game. Sorry, not just messing with you. Um look man, trying to pick I hate touchdown props. I mean I just hate them. There.

They are so intervious it isn't funny. But if I was gonna take one in this game, boo, I'm gonna take one with C J. Anderson. I like it. That's the one. I was looking at too right now you're getting him at plus one forty to score a touchdown any time in this game. Jim plus one forty, Todd Gurley minus one thirty the favorite on the ramp side,

Alvin Kamara minus one on the Saint side. Look, when we come back, we're gonna talk more about this game from a DFS perspective, and then we'll transition into that. A f C Conference championship game a lot to get into there as well. We like the under we like the Saints. We're both in agreement, so that means none of those things are gonna come through this weekend. Fantasy Best Friends Forever, Fantasy Sports Radio Network, We're right back.

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in the thirty eight round week dates. What do you have? Eastern f N T S Y Radio and on your popular podcast providers, Welcome back to the Fantasy best Friends Forever No great Susman Frank Sample here with Fantasy Taz Jim Day breaking down the conference championship games from a betting perspective. Got profits we already touched on the total we touched on the side like the Saints blake the under.

I like Kamara to go over third you seven and a half receiving yards him also throughout the c J Anderson to score a touchdown in this game at plus one forty. Touchdowns are hard to predict, though, Jim, You're absolutely right. I remember last week every single prop imaginable hit on James White. You know you had fifteen reception names you likedown had I had? I had James White score touchdown? Prop? Jim? How stupid? Am I? Like? God?

Every prop imaginable James White hit except score a touchdown? Man? Oh god, yeah, I don't. I don't want to talk about last weekend anymore. I gotta I gotta make up for it this weekend. It was it was so brutal. Oh, first signs of chronic gambler. I gotta make up for it this weekend. There you go, right, God, I've been hanging out with Gabe too much. Give me the fish. The Daily renaud dot Com partnership with Data Golf is back for with the all new premium Fantasy golf and

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Click on Go Premium, click on golf and enter promo code Golf nineteen for a ten percent discount. Jim, I gotta attack this game from a DFS perspective. I think it's worth mentioning. Jared Goff the cheapest quarterback on slate. I think people are gonna want to slop uh attack the quarterbacks in this game with Jared Golf and Drew Brees, just because it's a controlled environment right there inside a dome.

You don't have to worry about whether I will tell you that you don't really have to worry about the weather much anymore. With the Chiefs in the Patriots game. It looks like it's gonna be over thirty degrees by the time this game kicks off. There's no acipitation expected either, so don't overvalue the dome game here. I still think Patrick Mahomes obviously the best quarterback on the slate, but he is very pricey. Jared Goff again the cheapest on the slate. He hasn't thrown for over two d and

twenty yards. Uh He's actually he's only thrown for two or twenty yards just once in his last six games and on the road this year. Ten touchdowns, nine interceptions. I know a lot of that came in that Chicago Bears game. Drew Brees also has not been great as of late. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns just once in his last five games. That was last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams have been much better and much better past defense with a key to leap in the lineup. Jim,

do you like either of these quarterbacks for DFS? Uh? No, Again, I mean if it goes to the game script that you know we're talking about, where we think it's gonna be the under, then no, I'd rather not go with either one of these two quarterbacks. I think the high flying game is gonna be on the other side, so you know, I might, I'm gonna pay up a little bit more. Uh. You know, Brady is not that much more than Golf and and cheaper than Breeze, So I

like that my homes. Like you said, you know, he's higher. He's eight hundred dollars higher than Brady, nine hundred dollars higher than Breed. You know, not not huge numbers, but enough that some people may not want to pay there. So you know, again, if you're going with a golf it's more you're trying to be contrarian, and I get that, but I just don't see a lot of big numbers coming out of the passing game on in that game

at all. It's worth mentioning on draft kings of salaries for the quarterbacks are as followed, Patrick Mahomes sixty six hundred dollars, Tom Brady fifty eight hundred, Drew Brees hundred, Jared goff Is fifty four hundred dollars on fan duel, that is nine thousand for Mahomes, followed by eight hundred for Drew Brees, four hundred for Tom Brady, and Jared goff at eight thousand dollars. Now you did, you did forget to mention one on on DraftKings you you also

have Taysom Hill Taste the Hill at five dollars. Okay, I've gotta get this off my chest once and through it the gym day monologue. I am so tired of this team taking one of the best passers in the freaking game out of the game to put this trick kid in there. I hate it. I hate it. I've always hated it. I think it's stupid as hell when you got somebody behind the line of scrimmage like Drew Brees to take them all out for some kid by the name of Taysom Hill that couldn't even land a

job anywhere else. You know what, I'm sorry, folks, I hate this trickery. I understand innovation is innovation, but when you take the ball out of your best player's hands to make it a trick play, that is the stupidest thing you can do. Asom Hill, Sean Payton get off Jim Day's lawn. There you go. That was Jim Day's get off the lawn moment of the day here on the Fantasy Best Friends Forever. Um, I can't. I can't

really make an argument for Taysom Hill. I understand exactly what you're trying, what you're saying here, and I think it's Sean Payton just trying to like do something creative. But yeah, seriously, like anytime you see him back there, and it's kind of hard to figure out, right, Like you gotta look at the jersey numbers because at first you might think, well, is that Drew Brees taking the snap under center? He threw a nice ball to Alvin Kamara last week that was a touchdown but it got

called back. But I'm with you, it's very first two weeks ago he threw an interception when you didn't have to. Yeah, I just I hate that kind of stuff. You got one of the best. Look if it's to me if you have a mediocre quarterback back there, I'm all for it. I love the innovation, but not when you have one of the best guys to ever play the game behind the line of scrammed. You don't take him off the

field for anything. Like maybe if you have Mark Sanchez back there, you know you're try and do something fun. You do a little wildcats something. Drew Brees a little bit better than Mark Sanchez, Jim, C J Anderson, we talked about him a little bit when we were talking about the prop bets. He's had at least a hundred and twenty three rushing yards any touchdown in three straight games. I think what's worth mentioning about him most is the fact that a Sheldon Rankings is now out for the

Saints defense. The Saints, you know, their defensive line has been awesome all year in terms of limiting yards per carry and rushing yards to running backs this year, and a big part of that was Sheldon Rankins. He is now out. But C. J. Anderson, I think part of why he's running so effectively is, Yes, the Rams offensive line has been great. He has frefresh legs, Jim. He has fresh legs when everybody else. You know, we hear it all the time. It's the game of attrition, right

with with the with the NFL. To get to this point, you know, like you've battled for the last three four months, going back even further longer than that. When you think about training camp, like guys are tired. C J. Anderson does not have a lot of wear on his body, so he's coming in here and he's fresh when everyone else has kind of worn down. I think you're still getting some some value here with c J. Anderson. Nobody

knows exactly how much he's going to be used. Last week of the snaps for him, fifty seven percent for Girly, but he did outtouch Girly three to eighteen. I think they're gonna keep writing this kind of two headed approach here with CJ. Anderson and Todd Gurley. I do like him a little bit more on FanDuel, where it's only half point ppr, so the touchdown matters a little bit more. I know on Draft Kings it's full PPR. C J. Anderson not really going to catch passes. But I still

do think there's some value here with him. Oh, I agree. Look like all the reasons you said he's got. You know, he's fresh, he hasn't played much this year, doesn't have a lot of wear and tear, hasn't take a lot of big hits, and maybe a few extra pieces of Sicilian pizza while he was off, but didn't really seem to affect him. Hasn't affected him the last three weeks anyway. Um, so I'm not really worried about that that the kid

is running. I've always liked c. J. Anderson, don't going back to his Broncos days, I always thought he was a good running back. Everybody said it was a system. Uh you know, but he's still put up a thousand yards and you know, I like seeing that, and I'm glad he's got to a point now where he's has every chance in the world to go to a Super Bowl.

So good for him. But yeah, I agree with you, they're gonna use him both because, first of all, because you know, why really keep beating on Girley when C. J. Anderson is going out ripping off rounds like that, you know, no real reason whatsoever to keep pounding Girly and keep you know, having the shot of bringing back that injury

that much quicker. So you know it really. I think last week it really got to a point where, you know, they put him in for a couple of steps and he just went off, and they said, Okay, well we'll keep running him because he's doing such a well right now, you know, we'll save Girley for later on in the game. And that's exactly what they did this week. If he gets off to that kind of fast start, I see

the same thing. My only concern is if he doesn't get off to that fast start, do we see Girley come back uh that much quicker and get that many more carries? So there is a little bit of concern for me. They're just not a huge one. Jim. I wanted to get your opinion on two wide receivers. Two

more wide receivers here. Michael Thomas is the highest salary wide receiver on old sites speak Fandel and DraftKings, and I personally feel like the game plan, the defensive game plan for the Rams here and Wade Phillips, who had a phenomenal game plan last week against the Cowboys, which was basically, we're gonna we're gonna sell out to stop the run and we're gonna make Dak Prescott beat us that ultimately ended up working out well for the Rams defense.

I think that they just throw the house at Michael Thomas. I think, and typically a keep to leave does not travel around and follow wide receivers. He sticks to his side. I think they saw what happened last time against Marcus Peters with Michael Thomas, and they're gonna they're gonna send a lot of a keep to leave at Michael Thomas. They're gonna send a lot of double teams, maybe triple teams. They're gonna ask other play other wide receivers on the Saints to go out there, uh and and and beat

this secondary. So I'm kind of I'm kind of off Michael Thomas here, to be honest, because of the salary where he's at, and I think the game plan will be to try and limit him most and then the other wide receiver is Brandon Cooks. I think it's just worth mentioning again the revenge game going back to the Super for Doome when he played them earlier this year. He went six for one, four tea and scored a

touchdown in that game. Again, we don't really like the past games much here, but I it wouldn't surprise me. If Brandon Cooks scored another touchdown. So, Michael Thomas and Brandon Cooks, how do you feel about these guys? Well, look here, here's a great start about Brandon Cooks. Um, he's had a thousand yards. There's four teams playing this weekend. He's had a thousand yards seasons for three of them

and in the last three years. Interesting, I just don't realize it, but he's he's got a thousand yards seasons for three of these four teams. So you know, it's amazing. Uh, how well he's done moving around and he just continues to get it done. So, UM, I like, uh, you know, I like Cooks in this one to have a decent game.

I get what you're saying about Michael Thomas, and I do think they're gonna try and stop him, but I still see him as getting you know, a load of targets in this just because you know, let's face it, Ted Gain is what he is, Drake Quan Smith is what he is. They're they're guys that you know, are good for a few shots here and there, and if they hit, then you're good. If they don't hit, then oh well you're looking at a nothing stat line. So you know Thomas, well, I do agree that they're gonna

try and throw everything at him. You're still looking at a guy who's probably gonna see, you know, more than ten targets easily in this game. And I think just that alone, they're gonna find ways to mismatch them, even with the Rams king on him, because you can't really totally key on him when you have somebody like Camara coming out of that backfield. That's a great point, Jim.

I I want to move on to the Chiefs and Patriots here, just so we give ourselves ample time to talk about this game as well, both from a betting perspective and from a DFS perspective. We do know that last time these two teams met, uh, they combined for eighty three points. So you know, one side on the NFC Championship. The last time they met earlier in the season, it was they combined for eight. The last time the Chiefs and Patriots played earlier this year, where the Patriots

were victorious forty three to forty. The New England Patriots won that game combined for eighty three points in that game. Jim, I'll just throw this off right at the top here, talking about this game. I think the total is a little bit harder to figure out with this one, because I could kind of see I could see both sides playing out here. I could see again both teams wanted to kind of play keep away, maybe run the ball a little bit more. Sony Michelle ran the ball extremely

effectively last week. We know what Damian Williams has been able to do, and I have some pretty cool stats about how the Patriots defense on the road this season specifically has struggled to stop the run. So I do think again that we could see some run. But again, it's like Patrick Mahomes didn't even throw a touchdown last week, Jim, and they scored thirty one points. So I can also see a scenario where this game goes over. I don't really feel stronger strongly either way. If I had to choose,

I would go with the over. But I feel much stronger about the Saints under than I do. The game total here between the Chiefs and the Patriots don't agree with that um, and it's definitely a lot tighter um in this side. You know, if I wouldn't make this bet just for the reasons you said, Uh, you know, I was definitely wrong on the Patriots last week. And while I could be wrong again, you know, this could be a game where the defenses step up a little bit more than either one of us expect, then most

people expect. Kansas City's defense has shown they're much better at home. They played an outstanding game last week and and just shut down Indy right from the start. I'm not sure they're not gonna be able to do that to Brady, but you know, again, if if they can get into Brady's face the way they got into Luck's face, then maybe they can. Because that's the way to be Brady. Get him uncomfortable in that pocket, get him having to move outside of that pocket, and he can make mistakes,

you can force him to do things. So you know, that's that's one of the things they have to do. So if they can do that again, then I like that. But I mean, if I were to bet this game, I think the over is the bet. But here here's another you know, thrown stats out there at you, but in his seventh away playoff games, Tom Brady is three and war with eight touchdowns and eights and I have

more to touch on that as well. You mentioned the Chief's defense at home, it's absolutely right, nine point six percent sacreate at home this year, Jim five point seven percent sacreate on the road. Also at home this year, the Chiefs have allowed seventeen point four points per game at home. The defense has played much better UH at Arrowhead this year. But regarding Tom Brady, um, and specifically you know, against the Chiefs, I found I found this

one interesting. It was specifically an Arrowhead rights three career games at Arrowhead. Jim is a three touchdown six interception ratio at Arrowhead in his career. Small sample size, again, only three games, but that's one of only two stadiums that Tom Brady has played in his career where he has more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. So I think you're

onto something here. Brady and Belichick together have been under six times in the playoffs in their careers, three and three straight up, both trade up and against the spread. So look, they're going into unfamiliar territory. Mean, you know, typically the road to the Super Bowl goes through Foxborough, and you know we've seen that for a long time now. Um Andy Reid also, you know, he's given the Patriots

some fits over the years. I mean, obviously that game earlier in the year, it was a very close game, forty three to forty. But how about last year Week one, two thousand seventeen, when Alex Smith was the quarterback. They went into Foxborough and they destroyed the Patriots. I remember there was a couple of a couple of years back. I think it was Monday Night Football. Remember that game that that kind of that was one of many, Jim, where we started talking about is the Patriots dynasty over?

Why were we talking about that? Because the Chiefs one that game and believe it was like seventeen they destroyed them. That game was at Arrowheads, So I think, you know, there are a couple of things playing against the Patriots and Tom Brady here where you know, Arrowhead tough place to play. Andy Reid has played the Patriots very tough over the years. This game is closer than usual, and uh and you know for the Patriots playing up like

the underdog role. Here, give me a break, Jim, come on, I'll tell you the Patriots and two and five against the spread in the last seven games against case Um. They the under is eleven three in the Chief's last fourteen home games. So you know, definitely some trends involved here that could help help sway your thought process if you're you know, on the fence one way or the other. But as we all know, you know there's there's lies,

damn lies and statistics. Because you know, one way, you got the under eleven and three for the Chiefs, the over has cashed in six out of the last seven for the playoffs, and for the Patriots in the playoffs, and the over is four and oh in the last six matchups between the teams. So you know, it's when you look at these trands, it's one thing to you know,

take it as a part of what you do. And I know a lot of guys who you know, look at these trends hit lock in a bet just based on these trends, and you just can't do it because you can have trends that go both ways. As I just discussed. That's absolutely right, Jim. I think it's a good point. I don't think it's right to make bets just based on trends, but you kind of gotta take trends from all over and kind of it's like a

culmination of things as we've seen. But we get back, we'll give you our pick on the side for this game, the Chiefs and Patriots DFS as well Fantasy Best Friends Forever Fantasy Sports Radio Network. If you're someone that needs fantasy sports advice every day, the Fantasy Sports Radio Network has you covered. When you download the n T s Y Sports Radio Network GAP, you get the top fantasy

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the morning after. The people that go to see Brooklyn next games, those are not net fans, those are tourists. Those I totally get it. I totally get it. As cheapers going I'm gonna square gardens or be They're going to see the visiting team. I totally get that. But you can see, you know, the game against Houston the other night in Houston, there are a lot of people in that jerseys. What Sweet Day's not Amista on F and T s Y Radio on your popular podcast providers

through about the luck Pie. Well, well, well, well and it's the best Friends Forever. On the Fantasy Sports Radio Network, I am Frank Stample, joined by Fantasy tas Jim Day. Jim. I was wondering if you were gonna jump in there with a little way. Oh, I know, I heard one of them. I felt left. I knew one way or another, i'd get you singing this week, Jim. But before we get into the rest of this game, I do have to let you guys know you at the game. You

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that's right, one thousand dollars. That's my Bookie dot AG promo code f n T S Y. I didn't want to touch on this underdog thing just one more time here, I know Julian Edelman has got a hashtag against us. They're really trying to play this up. It's not working, like Patriots, it's not working. They've interviewed Chiefs players throughout the week, and everyone knows how good you are, They asked Travis Travis Kelsey like he's like, nobody's buying, Like, yes,

we know how good the Patriots are. We we are taking them seriously. They're not an underdog. Technically, they're a betting underdog. They're getting three points, but the Chiefs are getting the home three here. So basically, when the oddsmakers look at this game and they give the Chiefs, you know, the three points, laying three points here, they're just getting the home three, which basically means that they think that these teams are even. Are they even? Well, we're about

to find out. But the Chiefs went twelve and four this year. The Patriots went eleven and five. Meanwhile, the Chiefs faced a way tougher schedules. So I don't I don't know. I don't know how they're playing up the underdog thing here, Like you can argue that maybe the spread should be even a little bit bigger based on what I just said with the records and the fact that the Chiefs face a tougher schedule this year. I digress, Jim, Um, I'm taking a look. The reason it's not higher, it

is because the Patriots, simple fact. Um. That's when it comes down to any other team going into Casey for this game, the spread would have been much higher. But it's the Patriots, and you're hard to give the Patriots too much leeway. No matter how you think what they're gonna do, it doesn't matter. So you know, like you said, Jeeves are just getting the home three. That's what they're getting. Um. So you know, basically, it's not really something that's huge

in this game that we have to worry about a lot. Um. I purposely I like Kansas City, And again, you know it's not because I hate the Patriots. I don't hate the Patriots. You know, as a Giants fan, I kind of like the Patriots because I know, you know, I know we could beat them. Um. So it's really nothing there. And you've got to give respect to, you know, one of the greatest teams that we'll probably ever see in our lifetimes with the kind of domination they've had. So

you know, I don't hate them. I just I really I want to see Pat Mahomes you know, captive season with a cherry on top with that super Bowl win, because I mean, I think this kid deserves it. We we all knew he was gonna be a gun slinger, but nobody ever could have seen this coming. The kind of season he's had, the plays he continues to make, the way he sees the field, uh, you know, the no look passes, the underhand passes, bat cave in the

left hand, it passes. This kid is playing such an exciting brand of football and he is absolutely the NFL's future that I would love to see him top off this great season with the Super Bowl win. So I'm betting on that kid's magic carrying them past the Patriots this week. And you know what's crazy, Jim, is you know, for a long time people were saying, you know, give Andy Reid a legit quarterback on the Chiefs and imagine

what they would have done. And you can kind of you can make the case that they've had better defenses and years past than this Chief's defense. Right Like, for most of the season, we were talking about how the Chiefs have you know, uh, that was an area to attack for fantasy. So they've had better. Yeah, and well they didn't look that way last week against the Colt They did absolutely not. The playoffs, bringing different brando men

to the field absolutely do. And you know, Bob Sutton had a great strategy last week going up against the Colts. You know, he brought a lot of pressure, uh and it ended up working out. I think they'll bring a lot of pressure once again against Tom Brady and the Patriots. But this is potentially what could happen if you gave Andy Reid, you know, a kind of gun slinger quarterback. Mind you, Patrick Mahomes is probably gonna win the MVP. So it's not like, all right, give Andy Reid just

any quarterback besides Alex Smith. Like, yeah, he needed a pretty damn good quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. But this is kind of what we were talking about, Like the sky is the limit for this Chief's team with a quarterback of the caliber of a Patrick Mahomes. Just gotta touch on like the home road splits once again, because I think that does play a huge factor here. Jim Chiefs eight and one at home this season, Patriots three and five.

Strade up. I know, you know, two of their two of their wins on the road this year, we're against like Josh McCown. One of them was against the Bears and that was, you know, a very impressive win for the Patriots, no doubt about it. But three and five strade up and against the spread on the road this year,

they'll be ready to play. It's not gonna you know, I don't expect there wanted to be a blot either way, but you can't argue, you know, the difference between the home and road for the Patriots and how well the Chiefs have played at home this year. Well, what wasn't one of the Tom Brady wins on the road against the Bills and Nathan Peterman. I think you're correct, Yeah, I think it was. Does that really qualify? Yeah, that's

almost like a below the line type of win. So, you know, good for you guys at the Bills to six. I think that that was the Monday night game right where it was either I don't know it was either Navy. It was Derek Anderson, That's who was him. It was Derek and to two of their three wins on the road this year, we're against Josh McCown and Derrick Anderson and the other one was against the Bears, so they showed up and that was a great win for them.

But this this team hasn't been the same on the road this year, and I think it starts with their run defense. Is the stat I wanted to talk about, Jim, where the Patriots have allowed a hundred and twenty six point eight rushing yards per game on the road this year compared to nine point six rushing yards at home. And I think that just kind of plays into Damian Williams. We've heard you talk about Damian Williams the past couple

of weeks, how much you love Damian Williams, and rightfully so. Um. On the year as a whole, the Patriots allowed four point six nine yards per carry two running backs, that was eighth most. Over the last five games, Damian Williams has scored seven total touchdowns. It's twenty three receptions during that time. He's averaging over five receptions per game. Jim, I love Damian Williams both for DFS UH and I like his props as well. You know, give me over

sixty one and a half rushing yards. I just don't think he's getting enough respect. Um, and the touchdown prop that I know. There's also a prop for his total rushing and receiving. I believe it's somewhere like ninety eight and a half. So I like the rushing a little bit more here. But I'm kind of he's one of the building box from my team this week in terms of DFS, Jim, I'm kind of putting Damian Williams in

and building the rest after that. No, well, I'm with you know, I think, uh again, I'm killing myself and next year's draft with the way I'll talk about Damian Williams because most people are still undervaluing him. But you know, people just get a life and grow up and see what this kid is gonna do. And he is going to be the starter for case next year. I have

like no doubt in my mind. Um. And the one thing though you you talk about him still you know, being a value, is that his prices come up dramatically this week, especially on draftickings. I'll be honest, I haven't looked on Vanduel yet, probably do that tomorrow morning, but on DraftKings, he's only a hundred dollars left now, less now than Alvin Kamara. Um. So obviously you know they're starting to take it into account what this kid has done and how well he's done it. So he's not

so much of the value this week. But I agree with frank Is that he's still going to be in a lot of my DFS lineups just because, yeah, he's an integral part of this offense right now. So on fan Duel, there are four running backs that are priced higher than Damian Williams this week. Remember Fandal half point PPR. Jim spoke about how the price has has how it's been on the rise for Damian Williams on DraftKings because it's full PPR based on what Damian Williams has done.

But Williams is seventy two dollars. He's three hundred dollars less than Sony Michelle. He's five hundred dollars less than James White. James White another prop I like in this game. Not gonna take him to score touchdown this week. Jim fool me once over fifty three and a half receiving yards. I like that for James White. Um, the Patriots are obviously a smart team. Again. The Chiefs are gonna bring a lot of pressure. The pass rush the way to

beat that, uh, throw it to James White. And this is just the time of year where you know, we've seen it the past two three seasons. When it comes January time, it's it's James White time. It's fifteen receptions last week, so you're not gonna project that, but you know, I'd say he's safe for at you know, anywhere from five, six, seven receptions. I like the over for fifty three and a half receiving yards. Jim, this is really um this

game is DFS clore. So I guess I'll just kind of like open it up to you, like, who do you like? We know that the Patriots are going to try and take away um the top option for the Chiefs. The problem is who is the top option for the Chiefs. Are they gonna try and stop Tyreek Hill? He scored three touchdowns last time they faced the Patriots, so maybe that's something they try to do. Travis Kelsey really the only legitimate tight end on the slate, and legitimate no,

I don't consider Rob Gronkowsky legitimate tight end anymore. But it's really either pay up for Travis Kelsey or kind of I don't know, use like a Josh Hill or a Rams tight end. You know, good luck, God bless your soul. I don't I don't know who you're gonna use if you don't use Travis Kelsey. Yeah, I'm pretty much with you. I mean, you almost have to pay up for Kelsey this week if you want to shot. I mean, he is the chalk of the chalk this week. Uh, as far as I can look see on this DFS slate. Um,

no matter where you play, he is uh. Because I he said, Gronk is not Cronk. He's definitely not healthy. He's definitely not you know, able to run the same way we've seen him run in the past. So I get you know, Kelsey is the guy, And you're right, who are they going to take away? They're gonna take away Tie Hill, They're gonna take away Kelsey, take away

Damian Williams. Well, you know, if I'm nam Damian Williams is the last one I'm worried about because the other two can take it down the field and beat you, and that's what they don't want to happen. Now. The one thing I will say about this game is that in the game that they had previous in the season, they got roasted. Every time the Patriots went into his own defense, they got roasted. That's where they gave up. The big place is seventy five yard touchdown the hill.

The big play to Kelsey down the sideline was all in in when they played the zone. Um. When they decided to get away from that zone and went to cover and man cover, they played much better defense. They made it much harder for Mahomes to find that open spot too, you know, to really be able to get the ball down the field, really her tailed his big plays. I think we see a lot of that this time.

Let's face it. I mean, with Mahomes behind the line of scrimmage scrambling the way he does, trying to play zone for that long is incredibly hard, very hard to keep track of where the different players are moving to and so easily get lost behind you is a player coming from all the way on the other side of the field, but he's got the time because Mahomes got

plenty of time running behind the line of scrimmage. So because of all of this, I think we see a lot of man the man by the Patriots this week. And you know, that may hurt a little bit, but I'm pretty sure that they're looking at that as well. Kansas City is, and they're gonna come up with a game plan where I think we're gonna be seeing a lot more of the shorter middle type passes as opposed to try and go down the field ball game. With that, I do want to sign off YouTube now. Thank you

everybody for watching and listening on the Fantasy Sports Radio network. Side. If you can, please subscribe to the YouTube channel. I'll give us a thumbs up, leave us a comment. If you're listening to the US on demand, whether it's iTunes, Google Play, make sure you subscribe, give us five stars, leave us a comment there as well a rating review. We really really do appreciate it. Thank you very much. And Jim, you know you mentioned, uh, you know, playing

zone against the Chiefs probably not the smartest thing. Um, it's crazy that everyone knew that except for Matt Eiberflus, the defensive coordinator gains last week, which you know, they were just getting picked apart in that game. So again, that's exactly what the Patriots did against the Charters. If you watch that game, they they brought a lot of pressure,

They went man to man. They have two strong corners on the outside, with Gilmore and with Jason mccordy, and you know, Trey Flowers had a big game last week. So if there's one, you know, part of the game where Patrick Mahomes has struggled and pretty much all quarterbacks struggle, and I saw really awesome. Um there was like a chart graphic on the Pro Football Focus Fantasy Twitter. They have a graphic where when Patrick Mahomes is seeing pressure,

he's quarterback reading drops tremendously. We see that with a lot of quarterbacks, but um, I do expect a lot of that this week as well. Yeah, no, and you see that with most quarterbacks. Let's face it, you get pressure on him, you know, the greatest of all time. That's the way to beat him. Get pressure on him, Brady. So you know, absolutely there's a few that seem to play better with that pressure on uh And you know

I saw that chart as well. I get that. But yeah, I mean this, and you know everybody's forgetting that this is really his first season. You know, this is his first season in the league. Um, so yeah, he's gonna have some rough points. He's not a dent, you know, be all end all. But you're still talking about a guy in his first season had done that did what only two other quarterbacks in the history of the NFL have ever done, and they're both in the Hall of Fame.

Um So this guy did it in his first season. Imagine what he could do when he gets a little bit more experience. Yeah, it is a little bit scary to think about. I know some people who might be listening and who were watching might say, well, you didn't talk about you know the big names here, you know Julian Edelman and all these other guys, Well, those are the safe options, you know, those are the players who you know, we at least I do, uh, I feel

you know, I feel strong about those guys. Like, yes, you can put guys like Julian Edelman in your lineup. It'll be interesting to see if the if the Patriots try and take away Tyreek Hill or Kelsey. I still do like those guys. I like Tyree Hill personally more than Michael Thomas. Thomas probably safer, no doubt about it, but I think Tyreek Hill has higher upside, especially based

on what he did earlier on in the season. Jim, I just wanted to throw a few names, some salary savers right, like everyone wants to pay up and get you know, the Mahomes and Kelsey and Tyreek Hill in their lineus. But you gotta save salaries somewhere. Sammy Watkins. Look, I think he needs this blood wolf moon to come through, like all the stars are gonna need to align for you know, Sammy Watkins to stay healthy and performed. But he is cheap. He played of the snaps last week.

He saw eight of the targets. He saw of the targ sharing in games he played this year. Sammy Watkins is a name that sticks out to me as well as Ted Ginn, Josh Reynolds, Chris Hogan. Um, you need to save salary somewhere, Jim, do you like any of those names? Is there anyone else that's cheaper that you're trying to get in your line up this week? Well? This is you know, not really. I'm in two games slate, so it's not a ton of people you got to

play with. Um, you know, when when it comes to salary saving, I mean, James White is probably one of the bigger, bigger choices. But I do like mark Ingram as well. At I think he is on draft Kings. Um, I'm a little further off of c J. Anderson at five thousand. Then I was last week. I really liked him last week. Not so sure this week again. If he doesn't get off to the blazing start, I have to think that Girley gets starts getting more playing time and we don't see as much of him, um, I know,

spitting speeds. I'm pretty sure he thinks that James Devlin is a play this week to score two touchdowns. Doesn't like it, but he likes the prop because it's like plus ten thousand something crazy like that. Jim So Yeah, he kind of teased it on Twitter. Twitter to me that you know, Mike is gonna ask me about this crazy prop. So um. But you know, there's a lot of guys that you know are gonna be value this week. It's just hard trying to figure out who they are.

Sammy Watkins is when I like a four thousand dollars on DraftKings. He looked good last week. He looked like he was running well, didn't look like the ankle was bothering him at all. And with that, they're uh with New England probably shadowing Tyreek Hill all game. I think I liked Sammy Watkins a lot. Is one of my best bets. Um. Josh Reynolds is another guy that could easily come into play. Uh. I just again because of the game script I'm envisioning in my head where it's

a lower scoring game. You know, you're taking a little bit more of a chance with Reynolds, and I think you are with Watkins. Um, I like game last week didn't really come to fruition, you know. And Chris Hogan is another one at thirty seven hunderbucks. Why not take the shot out of him. He's been getting like four so targets a week. He could come into play in this one. Jim, I want to thank you so much

for joining me this week. With Greg Sussman out stick, We'll see if we could do this again in the future with Greg Sussman back. But for Jim Day Fantasy Taz, Frank Stanford, thank you so much for watching and listening. Stay Classic Fantasy Owners.