Best of BFFs 7/23-7/27

Do Do Do Do did it? Dude? You're listening the best of the Fantasy best Friends for Ever with Mike Florio, Frank Stample and me Greg Sausman. Thanks so much for listening and we'll be back soon. We hope is that Carson Wentz and Deshan de Sean Jackson Deshaun Watson both returning from major a c L injuries. And Deshaun Watson lit the world on fire last year before his a CIL injury, and the same can be said for Carson Wentz.

Both of these guys were in Live for major awards, Watson certainly the Rookie of the Year and went to the NFL m v P both through touchdowns at remarkable rates really unseen of, unheard of the obvious question is can they do it again. Deshaun Watson's being picked earlier and rightfully so he's coming back. The surgery was much much earlier in this season than Wentz's. Watson's touchdown percentage, as I mentioned, literally out of control, but he can

run a little bit, certainly has the deep arm. But Carson Wentz is done before. It's two years in a row. We saw steady improvement. I have to ask from their draft price, Frank, which one d other have? This is tough because I think at their price, I want to say neither, because someone who's going in that range right now is Cam Newton, and I think i'd rather have

Cam Newton just in a vacuum. I have Cam Newton ranked higher than these quarterbacks right now, and then if I want to wait a couple of rounds, I can grab and Andrew look. Like Mike mentioned earlier on if I had to choose one of them, I have Carson Wentz ranked higher one spot than Deshaun Watson, and I have walked warmed up to Deshaun Watson a little bit. I know I was very harsh on him a couple of weeks ago, but I am worried. I mean, he tore his a c L last year. He's now torn

a c ls in both of his knees. So you know, he is a mobile quarterback who has to get out of the pocket and make plays. And he's gonna be on the run this year. Greg The offensive line of the Houston Texans is not good. But that being said, I understand the opportunity that's presented right in front of him. He has DeAndre Hopkins, he has Will Fuller, so he has legitimate weapons. I mean DeAndre Hopkins, pound for pound,

one of the best wide receivers in the game. Um again, Watson's gonna be able to make plays with his legs. That's what we hope. But you know, coming back over the to the torn a c L, maybe he's a little bit apprehensive. I just think where he's going you have to pay that price. You know, six seventh, even eighth round range. They're just running backs wide receiver I'd rather take, or if I'm gonna take a quarterback, I'd rather take Cam Newton. You know, a guy that we've

seen do it year in and year out. Outside of that one terrible season two years ago, the guy has finished QB seven or higher in points per game every single season. The rushing floor that he gives you. He was number one across the board in every single rushing statistic for quarterbacks last season. Cam Newton. So that's why if I'm just putting these guys in a vacuum, they're going in similar range. I'll pass on those guys. I'll take a Cam Newton um and then Carson wentz Is.

You know, we're hearing more and more now he might not be ready for a week one one. He actually had surgery early December, and it takes about, you know, nine to twelve months to heal from an a c L injury. Come September, it's gonna be around nine months. So maybe he doesn't start the year off. That's there's a chance that he can bust, just because where he's being drafted right now. Maybe he doesn't play the first month, maybe he lands on the publist. We just don't know

as of right now if you're doing drafts. So there's definitely a lot of risk involved with both of these guys, again, a lot of upside, But in a vacuum, I'll take Cam Newton over both of them. Who is being drafted in a similar range. Okay, so that wasn't the question, Frank, But then sorry, you know, I love Cam Newton, give you, give it like I think Carson Wentz. But I'd rather have Cam Newton not in the poll for a reason because the answer is I don't really want either one

of them. There you go, that's the answer. You don't want to you don't really want either of them. Florio, I turned it over to you because we haven't really heard a negative word when it comes to Carson Wentz, right, Like, he's gonna be fine, he's gonna be healthy, he's working his way back. Yeada, YadA, YadA. Obviously, Nick Foles proved more than capable last year, winning the Super Bowl UM

for the Eagles. But I do take some solace into the fact that went like showed that jump in the year to you, like that efficiency, like Peterson knows what he's doing. And maybe I just think Bill O'Brien is like an idiot, but like he started Tom Savage last year, right, like this is the same dude that was like all right then with Shaun Watson in and maybe that efficiency was just way out of whack. I think I'd really have wentzton DeShawn Watson. I guess I'm going to be

the only one that has Watson ranked higher. And it's a number of reasons. First, what Frank said is a hundred percent true. There's a chance that Carson Wentz miss his week one. There's a chance that he misses more time than that. And like you said, they have a comminent backup who won the Super Bowl for them, won the Super Bowl m v P. So I think they're okay saying, hey, Carson Wentz take a couple of weeks off. We have Nick Foles here for a reason. That's one thing.

The other thing is, I think, first of all, Texas Houston's defense is going to be worse than Phillies, So I think Watson is going to be have to put up some more points than Wentz will have to. I think that also O'Brien is actually there. The talk is this year that they're drawing up plays for Watson similar to like what he did in college, because last year

he kind of had to conform to their playbook. Now this year they're doing it the other way around, because last year they didn't expect him to be their sudn quarterback, like you said also, I expect touchdown regressions for both of these guys. It was something I said last year once DeShawn Watson towards a c L that I thought he was gonna be overrated because I said, since two thousand ten, no quarterback had a higher touchdown percentage. I went all the way back to the post merger year

Greggy nineteen seventy. Deshaun Watson is tied last year minimum two hundred passing attempts all time. Since nineteen seventy, he's tied for the second highest touchdown percentage of all time, behind only Payton Manning. In two thousand four, his was Watson's was nine point four percent, Payton Mannings was nine

point nine percent. But you look at Carson Wentz in those same two spans, since two thousand ten, Carson Wentz I shared a seven point five touchdown percent Since two doesn't tend that ranked six and since nineteen seventy, the post merger that was the twenty six highest. So obviously both of these guys are going to suffer some touchdown regression. I think. So if if Carson Wentz isn't throwing touchdowns like he was he was on pace last year for

forty one. That would have been seven more than Russell Wilson who was second. So obviously he was on pace by far to to set the touchdown record last season. You take you scale those back a little bit. Do you know how any games he had with less than two hundred and fifty passing yards last year? Again, he played thirteen games, seven of them he failed to reach two hundred and fifty yards, and that's half more than

half the games. He only had four games at over three hundred passing yards, So he was either throwing for over three hundred or less than two fifty. There was two games in between there, but so we know how much up and down. The yardage was more down than up. So to me, if he is going to lose some of those touchdowns and I don't bank on him to have the yardage that some of these other quarterbacks going around that range can. And we're talking about this was

a guy who contributed with his legs last year. Why are they going to let him run especially early on in the season. We just said he might miss time to start the year. I don't have any confidence at all that they're going to let him run the ball. And extend plays with his legs, whereas with DeShawn Watson he's had more time to heal. They're already saying he's playing without a brace and they are going to let

him to continue to make plays with his legs. I'm with Frank on the fact that I don't want to draft either of these guys, and I said it when I walked in today to you guys, I said, I have these guys ranked fifth and six, with Watson being five once being six, and I don't feel great about it. I might lower them just because I would never take them at their current price, so it's hard for me to advocate others to do the same. But while I have them ranked highly, I'm not targeting them. I would

take Cam Newton over them. Like Frank said, I will wait and take Andrew Luck. There's other quarterbacks I like later, but if you had, if I had to pick one of the two, I think the Shawn Watson is safer, so I'm taking him. I will say this. You mentioned Carson Wentz is touched on rate seven point five percent, not nearly as high as Shaun Watson, and I do

think that some regression would be there with him. I wouldn't project him to throw more than forty touchdowns over a sixteen game span, but it's a lot more manageable than de Shaun Watson nine point three. But they're both

gonna get hit with it. No, yeah, absolutely, But I do think, you know, there's something to what Gregg said about, you know, Doug Peterson putting his players in the right position to make plays where you know, even when Carson Wentz wasn't throwing for that many yards, once he got into the red zone, got into the you know, right parts of the field to get things done, like Doug Peterson put him in that position and they you know, he was able to do the same thing with Nick Foles.

Across the border. Are gonna see touchdown regression this year, Like you've already poo pooed al Sean Jeffrey and you don't think he's gonna repeat the nine touchdowns he had last year. Zach Ertz had eight touchdowns, something that he's never done in his career. He had never had more than five. I believe he might be able to get So I think there's gonna be some regression across the board for this team, not just with Carson Wentz. Like I think Philly's offense last year was amazing. It was

off the charts good to me. I don't like to bank on history repeating itself, though, so like I think across the board, especially when Wentz is coming off of such a severe injury, it might not fully be ready to start the season at the very best we're gonna see him with limited time and preseason. To me, it just it screams that there's going to be regression for both of these guys. So I'll just go with the guy who I think is safer and going to start

the season healthy. If Watson and Wentz were being drafted at the same point as guys like Andrew Luck and Ben robs Burger, let's say in a vacuum, would you still would you still pass on those guys to draft like an Andrew Luck Because I like Andrew Luck a lot as well. The reason why I would take him is because you're getting the round, You're getting a couple of round discount. If you're all going around the same range,

would you still pass on those quarterbacks? No, I would probably take the Shawn Watson because I think he is the upside to be the number one quarterback. I think Andrew Luck has that upside as well. He does. Let's talk about Luck here for a second before we move on to Kirk Cousins. You want to do after the break? Um, So, Andrew Luck supposed to be a full go. He talked about that briefly last week week Frank Um supposed to just be a full go throwing. He's not on the

pup list. He's not gonna throw over seven straight days. But that's fine. But we don't need an throw over seven straight days. You needn't be able to throw and be normal in what was the last time, guys, that he was truly healthy. We're looking at fifteen then, because he always played seven games, so you're looking at that was a long time since he was really really healthy. What did he do? We know what? He finished that in twenty four I know I can tell you his stats.

Well finished that f completions, he played fifteen games. Yeah, but he wasn't healthy though, Like I mean, that was it was very bad. He finishes QB five and points per game. That's not even being healthy. So that's fine.

Have his finishes and points per game QB eleven and when he was injured QB two, And that's that's why I wanted that's where I wanted to get too, because in sixteen he finished the top five quarterback and talking with the naked eye, he was he wasn't good like he was not and I remember the offensive line was horrific, the coaching staff was horrific. All this stuff built in. I get it. It was bad. He still finishes QB five back. Was this the year with Braisarians? Do we

know that? Yeah? I believe so. Yes, it might even

it might not have before. I believe it was. Okay, So that was the first last time he had a real opensive coordinator because it let him throw the ball down the field when he was the last time Bruce arians is with the okay, So it was after the braz Arians then, but the last time he was really healthy and he was down he was number two, And this is why he was one of the first quarterbacks off the board in If he truly is healthy now, Andrew Luck has the ability to finish the top three

quarterback because he's gonna we know what it is with the legs. It's just being able to push the all time Frank Reich one second Frank Reich put Carson Wentz into or helped put Carson Wentz into a position to succeed. He did the same with Philip Rivers before that. I think Andrew Luck is in a much better place than he was since two thousand and fourteen, and where he's going off the board costing you nothing prett damn good. And I know I promised never to be injury optimistic.

Ever again, I'm injury optimistic on injury lock. So I have him currently at QB nine, and a big part of it is because not only do I want to see if he's healthy as we get closer to the season, but I want to see him play a little bit and make sure that you know, given all this time off and all the injuries he's had to that on, that he is still the same player. If he starts to show us a little bit in preseason, I'm gonna move him ahead of Watson and Wentz and he will

be my QB five. That's that's as high as I'm gonna put him if he shows us that he is healthy, uh in preseason. Yeah, I agree, that's the highest I would put him as well. And you know something we haven't even mentioned yet, the cult's offensive line got a lot better in the off season. You know, they used that high draft pick on Quentin Nelson. Pro Football Focus has already released their offensive line rankings. Last year, at season's end, they were twenty five. As of today their seventeen,

so they moved up eight spots there. You know about an average offensive line now that's much better than than what Andrew Luck had had in years past. So you want to see him throw a football, You want to

see him get out there during the preseason. But I've said this before, going to continue to say it, there's no better year to take a shot on Andrew Luck because, um, there's just so the position is so deep that like if he if he gets hurt or he bust, I mean, there's so many guys you can pick up or you know even just draft Stafford Rivers, Eli Manning of all these like Tyrod Taylor. I mean, they have all these

weapons at the quarterback positions, just so deep. This is the year that if you wanted to take the shot with all the insurance policies, it makes sense to do so with Andrew Luck. Okay, they don't have a run game. They have coordinators who love to pass, especially when they get near the end zone. It is all lining up for Andrew Luck to have a phenomenal season. My only pause right now is I want to see if he like once I see like footage of him throwing the

ball and he looks like the old guy. I told you, Boom, I'm putting in five but ahead of Wins, ahead of Watson, and I would take him then over those guys in that range. Yeah, just like I don't know, like that's there's more. No, It's just it's a matter of seeing I want to see, not like, oh, I don't want to see him do it for this whole season, But I just want to see him on the football field

with his teammates throwing the ball. There's no reason, by the way, Andrew Luck shouldn't be in priesas and football this year. He already been cleared of everything. He's don't even need to see him like play well. I just need see him on the field. And I'm telling you he's going to be the biggest climber from now until draft Day of all players. I truly believe. I don't get that. What do you think it's gonna be higher? Um? I think you're gonna see who's the dude Ronald Jones more.

I already have Ronald Jones like sixteen at running back, so's something like that. I have him in my top twenty. You have him there, most people don't as of nowhere where he's going drafted. I think Andrew Luck, like I know, he's number eleven, we said for Fantasy pros, and he's eleven quarterback off the board. I don't know what the discrepancy is between five and eleven. Have Ronald Jones twenty,

but I've debated putting him higher. So we we were talking two weeks ago now that we think Ronald Jones is going to be like wherever Sean Penny is going in the fourth round, Like, Ronald Jones will be right there, and I think he should be. We agree, that's why he said he's gonna be THEES riser during draft season. I still think Andrew lucktill can because right now he's going and like you can get him pretty late, like you're geting him like tant eleven, twelfth quarterback off the board.

I don't think Frank and I are alone and saying once people start seeing him and because then there's that you get rid of the old man. What if Andrew luck is is he's still gonna be hurried, or if he's never gonna be the same, you put that to bed. People are gonna start looking at what he did when he was healthy, in my opinion, and start ranking him as highly as we said we would. But he's the

eleventh quarterback off the board right now. According to Fantasy pros at pick Well Nitchiel Droubisky take the step that Carson Wentz did in his second year, right both second year guys too. Will Drubisky take that step? A lot of people believe he will, like Floria, are you one of them? Yes? And I think that first of all, I'm gonna start this off by saying he is my pick to be this year's Carson Wentz of these four quarterbacks. With that being said, though, I do think the other

three are all safer than him. They're all more proven. We've seen them do it at the NFL level, so but I do think Trubisky has the higher upside, highest ceiling of them all to be that come out of nowhere. Well he's not really coming out of nowhere, but to be that breakout quarterback this season and it's more than I'm buying into the system and the supporting cast than I am just Shrubisky. We look at it, they got rid of John Fox, like you said, Greggy, he was

a dinosaur. They brought in Naggie from the from Kansas City and their offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich from Oregon. He was Chip Kelly's heir to the Oregon Ducks. So right there, I believe those two minds. We've seen Naggie get a lot out of the Kansas City offense last season, and years before we saw we know Oregon as one of the was at least one of the best offensive schools in college football. So I think there's gonna be a lot of creativity between those two offensive minds right there.

And then the popular narrative that and I'm buying into it is that he's going to be this year's golf And it makes sense. He put young, innovative offensive coaches around him and a great supporting cast. You look at it, what Shrubisky was playing with last year compared to what he's playing with, we'll we'll be playing with this season. Josh Bell and me and Don Chell Edman is now Allen Robinson and Zach Miller or Dion Sims is now Trey Burton, who Frank and I both think he's gonna

break out this year. I agree with what Frank said last week. I love Alan Robinson in the fourth round. Kendall Wright is now Anthony Miller, and I like Anthony Miller a lot, and early beat reporters and reports from training camp is that Anthony Miller can do it all. He's apparently even a great threat inside the red zone, so I love the the offensive weapons there. You have Trea Cohen, who Naggie continuously is talking up and saying that they're going to find creative ways to get him

the ball. You have Jordan Howard, who not only is a great runner, who you know defenses are going to have to pay attention to and it's gonna help open things up for Trubisky. But now we're seeing him catch passes and stuff in training camp. So if he can even just improve on that a little bit, not saying he's ever gonna get confused with with Christian McCaffrey, but if he can just become a competent pass catcher, that's

only going to help Mitchell Trubisky. And in fact, the biggest thing to me is that when Rubinsky came out of college, what was it that we heard He has all the physical tools in the world, but he does not have a lot of experience under his belt. He played the one year UNC and that was it. And in that one season, the offense was primarily ran exclusively

out of the shotgun. So what does John Fox do last year when he gets this young quarterback and throws him into the mix, makes him call almost every single play from under center. You look at last season, the Browns ran just fort pent in their plays from the shotgun, and thtent of their passing plays were Uh, we're only from the shotgun. Both ranks twenty two in all of football. So you have a quarterback who you know has limitations as to the experience he has, and you try to

make him into something he's not. And not only that, they tried to limit him throwing as much as possible. Just run the ball with Jordan Howard over and over again. We've already heard the new regime say that's not what they're gonna do. They're gonna open things up, they're gonna be creative. So you're giving me a better coaching system. I think they're gonna put a scheme into place that fits their young quarterback and his strengths better than what

John Fox did. Plus you give me that supporting cast there is he the safest of the four? No, but who I think he has the highest upside. Yes, And it's more because I'm buying into everything around him than I am the player himself. And I think those are all great points. And you know, you didn't even get to the fact that, I mean, a guy can make plays with his legs as well. I mean we just

spoke about Mariota. Mariota viewed as a you know, running quarterback at the NFL level, or you know, certainly a guy that can make plays with his legs. Michel Trobiski average twenty point seven rushing yards per game last year. That's just a tick under what Mariota is that for his career. During his his final season at U n C before he left for the NFL Draft, he averaged twenty three rushing yards per game in his final season

at U n C as well. So I think you know a guy who they can He can make plays with his legs, he can get outside the pocket, he can make throws down the field as well if you need to take off and run a little bit. I think he adds a little bit of rushing production there

as well. I mean, for all the reasons Mike mentioned, right, if we're excited about Trey Burton, if we're excited about Alan Robinson coming back, if we're excited about Tarik and excited about Anthony Miller, that's all you hear everyone excited about the Chicago Bears. That means you have to like the guy who's throwing them the ball as well. And and that's going to be Mitch Rabinsky. I do have some post for concern with the volume, and I mentioned that um last week as well. With the Bears, I

don't know. I think they want to be a more balanced attack. And they have Jordan Howard, so we've seen him get the ball a lot. He can handle a big workload. If they want to, you know, take him off the field for a bit, they could do things with Treekoh and I think that their defense is going to be improved as well this year. Uh, they could end up at some shootouts playing against the Lions, Packers, teams like that in the division. But I do think

they're gonna be a more balanced attack. So that's not only concerned with Ribsky, but everything is there in terms of, you know, getting a new you know, offensive minded coach, and there not only the head coach. The offensive coordinator you mentioned coming over from Oregon told you last week they're going to run some more r p O s this year as well as something that we saw the

Eagles do very successfully. So you bring in a college mind who can work well with you know, some of the concepts that Trabinsky had at U n C. You put all those things together and it's a recipe for success. To me, the only thing I worry about is maybe volume here. But if I had to choose someone other than Marcus Mariotta of this group to make that step, maybe not inside the top five, but top twelve, top ten,

I think True Whisky is that guy. Not sure he has the same ceiling, but outside of Mariota, he would be my second next vote of the poll of the guys that we spoke about today, Greg. So to me, True Whisky maybe one. But I do have this question. You get a lot of great statistics there, Mikey. Is there a chance that Mitchell True Whisky becomes this year's Jared Goff rather than becoming this jewics question Wentz, Yes, I think that is a better comparison, and Jared Goff

last year was QB nine and points per game. I think that is a realistic expectation for Mitch tru Whisky if everything hits two Frank's point, everyone loves all the weapons. There is no way that Tarik Cohen is worth the fifth round pick. Allen Robinson is a wide receiver to Anthony Miller is everyone's favorite, you know, late round wide receiver Trede and it is a top ten tight end. There's no way all of that happens and Mitts dr

Whisky bust. So we believe in all the talent around him, and we believe in the head coach and all that we naturally have to believe in Mitts Dr Bisky. There's no way one can go without the other. Totally agree with that now, I totally totally agree with that. I was like, ye, guy, Matt Ryan, you hated him last year. He were very out on him. First year in a new offense, chief Star Kasian Atlanta. Everything went right for

them two years ago. Matt Ryan was the m v P. They go all the way to the Super Bowl before the Monstros collapsed against the Patriots. But Matt Ryan had a what a hell of a season, Damante Freeman, Julia Jones, I mean, everybody together, just the monsters. Monsters year. Last year they fall back down to earth and Matt Ryan, as you described throughout the year, Frank, You're like, hey, this guy sinks. He shouldn't be started. Much old, much less started. You want nothing to do with Matt Ryan.

Why is it different? Well, last year was just based on the price that you had to pay for him. So you know he was getting drafted as a top five quarterback last season he was, you know, just behind the Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, who another one who disappointed us last season. Um, But you know, you look at Matt Ryan's career and there's a lot of

up and down. It's from twenty sixteen to seventeen, Falcons went from first in points per game, they dropped all the way down to fifteenth in points per game last year. And you look at his fantasy finishes too, in points per game just in his career, You've been nineteen last season QB two and twenty sixteen. That was the MVP year phenomenal. He'd be twenty two and twenty fifteen, he'd be seven and fourteen, he'd be sixteen and thirteen, he'd

be seven and twenty twelve. So it just seems that there's a lot of inconsistency from year to year with Matt Ryan. It just seems like you want to buy him after the down years because you're getting such a big discount on him for fantasy football. So that's why again you're seeing him draft around QB fifteen, QB sixteen. We know what his upside can be. I think some natural regression is in order for Matt Ryan as well.

He had only twenty touchdowns last year. Greg, I mean with the weapons that he has, Julio Jones, we talked about him another one natural regression. He only had three touchdowns last year. They still have Julio Jones. They bring in Calvin Ridley, they have Mohammed Sano, they have Austin Hooper. We're hoping DeVante Freeman Kevin Coleman are more involved in the past game. This year's second season in Steve Sarkisian's offense, but the touchdowns had to come up last season, the

final eight games, including the playoffs. He didn't throw multiple touchdowns in any game, one touchdown or less in eight straight games from Matt Ryan. You asked me there's natural regression coming. I will say this, I don't think it fits the bill either of the guy that we're looking for, the next Carson Wentz. I know that. I said he has the upside, but if you look at it the m v P season, thirty eight touchdowns, that was a

phenomenal season. He's only had more than thirty touchdowns twice in his career and that's two, four or six eight, that's ten seasons. So I don't think that's the quarterback he yes, I think thirty touchdowns, that's what you should expect. More so out of Matt Ryan. I think the natural positive regression is coming. He probably closer to like a high m QB two, maybe sneaks in that that top twelve. But again, I don't think he's the guy. I don't

think he's top five worthy this year. I wouldn't have him as my my Carson Wentz. He will be better than last year, but he's not getting back to m v P format. I'll say that about Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan almost reminded me of his teammate DeVante Freeman. We talked about that on the Todd Gurley Show, right like who could be the next Todd Gurley and DeVante Freeman seemed like the obvious answer. He was a guy that we've seen do it before, find the end zone quite

a bit. It was being taken after a lot of guys that just aren't better than him. And the injuries are concerned. They're injuries are und concerned, Mike. When it comes to Matt Ryan, it's really just production and performance, and ultimately he's gonna go back to where he was two years ago. He was the number one guy. No, he's not. Is he as bad as he was last year? Probably not? No, And the injury is not concerned at always two games in his NFL career, and I figue

what Frank said. I think the touchdowns are a big factor, and I think there are natural regression coming because you look at it. In only sixteen he had ninety six passing attempts inside the twenty yard line and fifty one inside the ten, which both would have led the league last year. By the way, because we saw across the board, I think it's worth mentioning fewer passing attempts inside the red zone than we did in previous seasons, so that

is worth noting. But last season the number inside the twenty drop from ninety six to seventy five and inside the tan drop from fifty one to thirty five, so we could see that climb up a little bit closer to what it was in sixteen. That could be one

way whether those touchdowns start to increase. Also, his completion percentage dropped from inside the twenty from sixty one point seven six to forty six point one, and then last year inside the tan from fifty seven point four one in sixteen to just fifty in uh inside the ten yard line last year. So if we're expecting Julio Jones to suffer some positive touchdown regressions, I think it only goes hand in hand with Matt Ryan seeing an uptick in his touchdowns. You know who Matt Ryan reminds me

of from a couple of years ago, Matt Ryan. So coming into sixteen, I thought Matt Ryan was a good quarter value at the quarterback position because the year before that the touchdowns were down in he threw just twenty one touchdowns, but he had four thousand, five hundred and ninety one passing yards that ranked fifth in the NFL. So my thinking that year was if the yards could be there, even if I didn't expect thirty eight touchdowns.

I'm not gonna say that I did, but I thought, hey, if he gets back into that twenty five through twenty eight range, he is going to provide a good value because he already has all the passing yards. Now, the yards are down from what it was in fifteen, but last year he threw four thousand and ninety five yards that ranked sixth in all of football. Passing yards are down, we're down. Last year across the board he ranked six.

So if he can get that touchdown percentage, which was three point eight last year, if he gets step back to his career norm of four point six, or maybe he even builds on that just a little bit, because we've seen him have multiple seasons where he was over five, if he can get back into that twenty five to twenty nine touchdown range, he's going to provide good value.

He's a guy right now who if I'm in a Best Ball draft, or even if I'm in a regular draft, if I'm waiting on quarterback, and I'm taking like a Philip Rivers or whatever, or if I'm taking one of the upside guys and like Andrew Luck or Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan is the perfect one pair there because he's going to outlive his a DP. In my opinion, he's looking about pairs and maybe he is. Maybe that is a fine pair of Mahomes and Ryan. Maybe Ryan can

certainly do better. But maybe I'm just looking at this wrong. But I'm looking for a break out. I'm looking for a dude. And maybe Matt Ryan does have the ability to finish the top five quarterback because he's done it before, Like we've seen that. He's only done it once though, but he's done it the other years that he's performed well, He's been around like QB seven in points per game. That's solid. That's fine. If you got out of him,

that's fine. I'm I'm okay with that. But I'm trying to find a guy's gonn make the jump out of thin Matt Maryan is making the jump. And maybe again that Ryan is almost like a slightly better version of about X Smith. To me agree with you two, I would expect more in the QB seven through ten range rather than I would top five. And you think Smith's quarterback eighteen. That's what I haven't ranked currently, Mike, where

do you have Met Ryan ranked? If you've done that portion of your rank I have Matt Ryan I do sixteen, okay, So we're both gonna be the number thirty seven rankers this year. I have met Ryan sixteen, okay. So so that's very interesting to me. So you had Alexmith a eighteen max, Alex Smith at eight teen, Matt Ryan sixteen. Not dissimilar, right, both quarterbacks? Things go right. You believe that Alex Smith can finish QB twelve thirteen is kind of what you said, and Matt Ryan seven to ten

range a little crazy, but that's fine. That's not dissimilar these two guys. But those aren't necessarily the guys that are making this jump. Yeah, you can draft the Matt Ryan whenever, you can draft an Alex Smith whenever. And there's always a million quarterbacks out there. I get that. Let I'm looking for the best. This is a little bit different than the Todd Gurley episode where the DeAndre Hopkins up, so where there's all these talented guys, there's

so many quarterbacksually be starting a one quarterback league. I get that, but I'm looking for the next Carson Wentz, the undrafted guy that is going to finish as a top five performer. And that leads me to Marcus Mariota. Because it was two years ago. We all picked up mac Marcus Mariota and we loved them right, and a lot of that was certainly due to the schedule. Every week he was facing a bottom five, bottom ten defense, and he tore them apart. As we got closer to

the Fantasy playoffs, it was a disaster. His schedule got much much worse, and he was much worse in general. Last year, I remember him being one of the two players that I think we're people were on polar opposite sides of the conversation. Either you loved Marcus Mariota last year or you hated Marcus Mariotta last year. I was on the hate side. Personally, you are the love side, if I remember correctly, I think I had all right. You were pretty high on it. I was much I was.

I was more optimistic than you, but I was not as high on him as I was a Damnus Winston, who I had in my top five but you were definitely a Mariota guy. If I you know, if I remember number seven, and that's pretty high. That was pretty high for me. It closed my rankings because unprepared um. But for me, Marcus Mariota was much was much lower. He was for me a number I wasn't lower as I thought. That's nine. Uh, he wasnub eleven and I thought I thought it was gonna be even lower. That's

somewhat lower than the consensus. I came in in the middle of you two. I at first was kind of when I before I did my rankings, I thought I was going to be closer to Frank. But I don't have mind in front of me, but I believe I had him like nine or ten. I think as we got closer to the season, I think you started to lower him. Yeah. I think that was something that we all realized, like, Okay, he took advantage of a great schedule year before. We all thought that they were going

to run the ball a bunch exotic smash mouth. So I think we all kind of like started to sour a little bit. I didn't do it as much, but I think I think that was the thinking heading into last year with Mariota fair enough. Now this year, it seems like the narrative itself, Frankie has changed a bit because Marcus Mariota. The use of his legs were still there last year. You can know these guys are gonna diamond on the numbers. I have a few myself, but

the use of his legs were still there. But everybody blamed the coaching staff for his inability to improve as a passer. Mike Malarkey, he's old, no doubt about it. Terry Rubiski even older. These two dudes were exotic, smash mouth, but barely letting Marcus Mariota do anything. Incomes to Mike Rabele.

Offensive coordinator is Matt Lafleour. Certainly everybody knows him as being the opensive coordinatre with the Rams last year, and now he comes in and this is his offense and people expect Marcus Mariota to have this major, major jump, but last year he was just eighteen in deep balls attempted. Are we blaming the coaching or are we blaming Marcus Mariota. That's the question we're going to need to answer before we know how high his ceiling could be. Mike, what

do you think about Marcus Marietta. I think he'll be better than last year, obviously, but to me, he we need to see him do something that he's never done before, and we need to see him see a lot of volume. You look at it, his hot career high and passing attempts was last season at four hundred and fifty three. I'm sorry. If you're not throwing the ball at least five hundred times, I don't think you can be a top five quarterback. And I know he gives you a

lot with his legs. I'm not going to take that away from him. He does. But another thing I noticed about him that I didn't like last year as they got closer to the end zone, he didn't throw the ball much. Last year. He had forty nine attempts inside the red zone, not even inside the ten, where he only had eighteen forty nine attempts inside the red zone.

Quarterbacks who had more uh it includes Trevor Simeon, Jay Cutler, Case Kingdom, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, not guys that you know we're extremely high on this season, But they were still throwing the ball more as they got closer to pay dirt. Than Marcus Mariota was. So for me, I do think Marcus Mariota has a lot of upside,

but we have to see him do something. And maybe he does because they brought in a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator, and I know while none of them have ever called UH plays before, they both do come from systems that rely heavily on the past. So maybe that is something that they're going to implement. They're gonna be like, hey, we think that we trust Marcus Mariota, and we come from offenses and from teams that have

had a lot of success being passed first teams. And I do think it is words bringing that up because the whole exotic, smash mouth and everything from the previous regime that's all gone. But they do have Dean Lewis here, they have Derrick Henry. I do think they are going to rely on the run a lot, maybe not as much as in years past. So I do think Marcus Mariota has a lot of upside, but he's gonna have to do a lot of things that we have yet to see him do at the NFL level. Yeah, that's

exactly right. Um, you know, my pick to be this year's Carson Wentz would be Marcus Mariota. And you know he's actually leading the right now, and he does have to do something we've never seen before. QB twenty last year in points per game, q'd be eleven the year before, and QB fifteen as a rookie. So he hasn't finished higher than QB eleven. Yet you know we're saying that

he has the upside to finishes a top five quarterback. Well, I'm not gonna put words in your guys mouth, but I do think of all the guys that we've mentioned so far kind of in this you know, QB QB twenty range, I think he is the guy because you know, completely new offense. Like you mentioned, you get Mike Malarkey out of here, you bring in Roger la Flour who worked under Sean McVeigh. What am I saying? Er? Was that? Was that from Dodgeball? Is that with Peter le fleur

er we used to work with us. Oh, he was feels like a subconscious thing. I mean to write Matt la Floor Roger la Flour because it was like from emails from back in the day. I don't tell anyone I did that, but nobody but Matt Lafleur. You're right, greg Is, Matt la Floor takes over the offense. So I think we'll see some new concepts here for sure. Mike Freebel, the head coach here, you know, had worked

with Dan Lewis when they were in New England. Obviously didn't actually work together, but he knows about Dan Lewis, so you bring that, You bring that versatility here to the run game, where you know you don't know what's gonna happen when Dean Lewis is in the backfield. A lot went wrong for Marcus Mariota last year. He was injured. We know he was coming back from the broken leg the year before. Then he suffered the hamstring injury in Week four. He was never the same after that. Corey

Davis missed a lot of the season. So yeah, it sounds like I'm just making excuses for Marcus Mariotta, but there were a lot of excuses to be made, And you know, we would have made excuses for Carson Wentz from his rookie season to his second season as well. The same thing for the year Matt Ryan broke out and was the m v P. We would have made excuse for him from one year to the next as well. There were legitimate excuses with Mariotta. He had that old

style offense. He was hurt last year, didn't have his number one target in Corey Davis, who we are all very excited about this season. Still has the Laney Walker, still has Rachardon Matthews has the running backs that you guys have mentioned. Has that rushing floor as well, three hundred and four rushing yards perse per season. That's twenty one point seven rushing yards per games. So you know, if he turns the ball over he kind of had,

it gets mitigated by those rushing yards. And then I mean the touchdown percentage last year was two point nine percent. His first and second year it was five point one percent and five point nine percent, respectively. If that touchdown percentage was just five percent last year, you would have had twenty two passing touchdowns. And again you want more

than that. But his path to being Carson Wentz is being exactly what Carson Wentz was last year, efficient making touchdown throws in the red zone, not doing it with a lot of passing yards per game. But we're gonna have to see a real touchdown efficiency out of Marcus Mariotta, and I think with the weapons they have new offensive minds that they have there. If anyone's going to do it from this group that we're talking about, it is

Marcus Mariot. So today we're not going to do busts. Instead, we are going to do Bush tomorrow the quarterback like so would whoever busted last year that I was completely off of. Drew Brees also not good. Jabres massive bust last year. So we're gonna talk about that tomorrow. But

today we're gonna do it. But differently, we're gonna talk about the player that broke out that cost you absolutely nothing but finished as a top five quarterback, and that was Carson Wentz, which I draft the Carson Wentz around after we draft the Carson Palmer I think last year in the GSD league, and he was a savior, I mean Carson Carson. Yeah, Carson Carson, and he was let's

put your elbow out of my shot, thank you. Um. He was a superstar for a superstar for all fantasy players, and ultimately he would have been the most valuable player had he not gotten hurt. Obviously he did, and he crushed a lot of fantasy owners as well. Fantasy experts tell you all the time you don't need the draft a quarterback early, Carson Wentz being a prime example of that. Well, the experts don't always tell you, though, is which quarterback

do you draft? Which one of these guys are going undrafted? Are costing you basically nothing in draft? Is the guy that you really want? Is the guy that cannot just be suitable weekend and week out, but finished as a top five player at his position. That's what we're trying to uncover this week. That's where we're trying to uncover today.

So I want to get to that. On the Fantasy pof of Twitter account, we launched the pole as we do as we do each and every day during this series, and today which quarterback would be this year's Carson went Here are your options Number one Marcus Mariota, number two Alex Smith, number three Matt Ryan, or number four Mitchell true Bisky. Which of those four have the best chance this year to become Carson Wentz? We try to answer

that right now. All right, gentlemen, I want to start off with the guy that I wanted on this poll, and that was Alex Smith. We can all laugh. You all cry, I understand, White, but go ahead. I can't do that, laugh Frank, And that that sounds like it's straight out of Grandma's Boy. It's still it's fine, it's fine. But Alex Smith, hold on last year finishes the number five top five quarterback. What is all said and done?

Right now? Year about rushing quarterbacks, you mentioned DeShawn Watson and and and certainly Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Marcus Mariota, who will get to but Alex Smith has the fifth most rushing yards of any quarterback over the last three years. All right, So that's that's that's pretty solid, nothing spectacular, no doubt, three of them. And all these statistics are about to read you come from

Matthew Berry's article. Three of the past four years, a J. Gruden offense has been top twelve in the NFL in past percentage. All right, it's pretty solid. Jay Gruden offense has finished top tens in terms of total quarterback fantasy to fantasy points four times in the last five years. And Alex Smith, who was quarterback four overall, is being drafted as quarterback eighteen. Now you may ask, we've done

this oxy thing before. He's not fantasy friendly. He's a fine NFL quarterback, but he's not a good fantasy football quarterback. And you maybe right, But as I said last year, he was QB four overall, he's going to an offense that is quarterback friendly. Was it Kirk Cousins that was really that good? Or was it the system? People love Jamison Crowder this year? Why dunt buff don't buff don't buff dub offf Well, dumb buff ub buff up off

leads the yards and at least the fantasy points. The running game for Washington over the past couple of years have been pretty non existent. I get that. And the thought process here is Darius Guys is going to fix that, and maybe he will. But Alex Smith, he's going to do exactly what Kirk Cousins did in my opinion, And I love Kirk Cousins last year, and I love Alex Smith this year. Frankie, Yeah, Alex Smith, it's interesting. I

feel like he's being a little bit disrespected. One of the first things when I came in today, you read me some of these Alex Smith's status. You're very excited about him. Of the Matthew Barrio, I want, yes, absolutely, um, But I mean I still do have questions because they draft Darius guys very early in the draft. Their offensive

line I think is better than people realize. So I think I think that they are I think they want to be more of a balanced attack, and they use a high draft pick for a reason on Darius guys, so I think that you know they're gonna run the ball quite often. The defense, I think there's still some question marks, so they could find themselves in some shootouts. But you look at the last four years, and I

know it's a completely new system. But Alex Smith last year QB four and points per game, great phenomenal, his best fantasy season ever three years before that QB twenty, KB seventeen, QB eighteen. You're right that he adds some um rushing floor because of those rushing yards. He add some fantasy floor, so I could cancel out any interceptions. But you know he's not that aggressive down the field.

I don't think the weapons are amazing there. He's got Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed went healthy, if healthy, Paul Richardson they bring him in, Josh Doson. They have some guys I don't I don't I'm not a name with his weapons, but you know I said too, I'm fine with him as my QB two. Just me personally, I don't think that there's enough upside here. I don't know that they're going to I feel like they want to be a more balanced offense. I'm gonna keep beating that one into

the ground. I just don't know that there's enough upside here with Alex Smith. I think he's being I think he's being drafted adequate. He might be a little bit undervalued. He's quarter back eighteen. You don't think he finishes a QB one this year? Really, no, I think he's got I think he's got a long way to climb. I have him as I actually haven't a way to a

long way to climb. He's never four overall quarterback last week, and the guys that have ranked right ahead of him though, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Marcus, Mariota, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers and alexand could beat a lot of those guys. I mean, I'm I'm down to here your take on it, but I just feel like I currently have Smith eighteen as well. So you guys are underrating them this year. I'll tell

you this, Greggy. So at first I looked into it and I thought, maybe, like am I Could I be wrong about this and you'd be a d percent right, can't I see that receiver target separation? Yes, last season was the best in the league for Alex Smith. So he was throwing two wide open receivers. It was almost two yards of separation per target. So I looked at Kirk Cousins because it's a lot of the same weapons.

He ranked seventh in that al right, not a huge fall off, so he his guys are getting open as well. Then I look at it. Alex Smith. Last year his a DOT at seven point nine, which is high for him, ranked thirty third out of forty quarterbacks the year before that. What a dot his average depth of target? I know

what that means, I was explaining to everybody. Yes, so it's how far down the field his target is, not including like he could throw in a one yard to Tyreek Hill and he could take it the distance that counts as a one yard a dot because that is where the target was to brank it down for those six point nine ranked thirty five or thirty six quarterbacks from fifteen he ranked dead last and a dot every single season, and he topped out at six point nine.

He's not a guy who throws down the field at all. And he does and have Tyreek Hill. He doesn't have Travis Kelsey, Kareem Hunt, guys like that who Tyreek Hill. We saw it against the Cowboys. He threw a short pass and he took it and somehow got in between three defenders and scored a touchdown on that And I wish I remember who tweeted it, but it's it shows

you just how volatile fantasy is. They tweeted the two plays and it was that Tyreek Hill one member against the Cowboys where he somehow at the end of the half broken in between three defenders and scored a touchdown, and another one where Smith threw deep and the defensive back smacked the ball up in the air and it ricochet to Albert Wilson for a touchdown. He said, if you take those two plays away, because they were both like sixty yard touchdowns, Alex Smith goes from QB five

to like I think it was borderline top twelve. I can't remember who tweeted it out, but I just in my opinion on Alex Smith is last year, everything broke right for him and he doesn't have the playmakers that he had last year on this team. Do I think he can be an efficient quarterback? Yes? Do I think he is the safest of the four guys that we were talking about day probably arguably only Matt Ryan. You

can make that argument, I think. But the upside, I do not think he is the highest upside of these four quarterbacks. I don't. So Listen, there's no argument that he doesn't have the highest upside, right like obviously, but I think of the four quarterbacks we listed, if I told you he finished the best out of any of the four of them, that shock you. It wouldn't shock me. No, no, no, I wouldn't shock me either. But like again, it's gonna be high end QB two, and I think that's fine.

That's where he is. But if we're talking about who can be this year's Carson Wentz, I don't. And it's crazy to say because he just finished QB four, But Mike laid out all the numbers gracefully, and that you know, he doesn't have the weapons he had last year, and he's not an aggressive quarterback downfield. So the possibility of him finishing as a top five quarterback again this year. I mean to me, it's like under ten percent.