Episode 152: Preparing for a Robotic Future

Everybody, Peter Diamandis here with my partner in crime, my coach, Dan Sullivan, and welcome to Exponential Wisdom. Dan, good to see you. Good to see you. And I was thinking maybe today we talk about robots. I love robots. And, you know, the robots are coming. They're coming in mass. And they're coming to a cottage near you.

Are you ready for robots? Oh, sure. Yeah. You know, it's interesting, right? I had this conversation with Elon a year and a half ago, and I said, what's your prediction for the number of humanoid robots on Earth? And he said, by 2040, we'll have 10 billion humanoid robots, as many robots as we have people or perhaps more. I remember asking you, Dan, what will it feel like?

When we have robots on the street, in your backyard, everywhere. And your answer was classic Dan Sullivan. It was, it's going to feel normal. I've quoted you on that so many times. What are your questions or thoughts on this? It's got to feel like factories. If you think of the industrial age, it'll feel like assembly lines and factories, you know, when a large portion of the population is using them.

If it's okay with you, let me give a little bit of a frame on humanoid robots and sort of lay the terrain out for everybody listening. It's an area that I'm invested in through my venture funds and that I'm advising. And this year at the Abundance Summit in March of 26, the theme is digital superintelligence and the rise of humanoid robotics.

So I've got five humanoid robot companies coming with their robots. That's going to be cool. So here's my overview. There's probably well over 100 humanoid robot companies in the world. About half are in China, half are in the West, principally in the US. I would say there are probably 20 to 30 very well-funded humanoid robot companies. And in the U.S., I'm tracking about five in particular. This is what Tesla is doing with Optimus, though they just...

announced they're going to do a redesign on Optimist. There is Figure AI, Brent Adcock's company. It's doing very well. There is One X Technologies that's making the Neo robot. And what's interesting about Neo is it's going to be focused on entering the home by the end of this year. There is Aptronic that's backed by Google, and there's agility robotics that has a robot called Digit.

that is in partnership with amazon the cool thing there i heard about that recently besides working in amazon's factories one of the cool ideas is they want to put their digit robot in the back of autonomous electric vans and when they show up at your house the robot pops out of the van and delivers the package to your doorstep. I mean that's what is sort of like the terrain that I'm following.

A couple of other data points worth noting, the average price of these robots are expected to be in the $20K to $30K range, and that means that you could lease it for... Rough numbers, 300 bucks a month, $10 a day, 40 cents an hour. Okay, that's a lot of data. What are your thoughts? How do you react to all that?

Well, Peter, I always say that the technologies take over fastest where they fit in with people's habits. My feeling is that there's a lot of work habits. that they would fit in with much more quickly than lifestyle habits. I mean, there would be people who would do it just for fun, and they would do it, you know, for the kind of social status that comes with being the first person to do it.

But I suspect that there's just millions of applications in the industrial world. Dangerous work, for one thing. The other thing, heavy work, you know, where you got to do a lot of heavy work. And the other thing is where absolute... 100% reliability of performance is required because humans really aren't very good at 100% reliable performance.

And so where are you seeing where they're really getting traction already in the marketplace? Well, you know, figure AI is in BMW car manufacturing plants. Optimist was developed. to be in the tesla plants you know a lot of these robots will enter the distribution centers and robots have taken over distribution centers but they all look like hyper specialized robots versus humanoid robots

And I think we'll start to see humanoid robots coming in there in large numbers. But it's interesting. I just spoke to Bernd, the CEO of 1X Technologies, and he's originally founded out of Norway and has moved it now to Silicon Valley. And he believes that in order for us to get to the next level of AI, to get to what everyone would call AGI or digital superintelligence, that we need to put robots in the home.

where they have diverse environments and are learning from all kinds of interactions in the same way that a toddler sort of begins to form their world model by interacting. with stuff around the house and that if you're in a factory, it's such a repetitive process over and over again. There's not a diversity of world building in your robotic model, so to speak. Yeah.

Well, that would suggest that military work would continue to be big. You're training battlefield conditions and everything like that. There's a lot of diversity there. The interesting thing, I had this conversation with Palmer Luckey, who is the CEO of Anderil. We've talked about Palmer before.

And one of his ideas was... One of your all-time favorite speaker guests. Yeah, I mean, oh my God. So those of you who don't know Palmer, Palmer is the CEO of Andrel Industries. By the way, Andrel Industries, AI. And he's been on my stage at the Abundance Summit twice, and I've done some great podcasts on moonshots with him. But the first time I put him on stage, I was really concerned about how the audience would react, because here's a guy talking about...

using AI and robotics to escalate military applications. To kill. To kill. To be very, you know. Without collateral damage. Without collateral damage. Yeah, kill precisely. All right. And. oh my god it's like the audience erupted you were there well the thing was i don't know what you were more shocked about palmer or your audience

I suddenly saw another side to my audience, or maybe it was that year's audience, you know. No, but he came back again. He got another amazing standing ovation. He's just entertaining and enjoyable. Yeah, and absolutely brilliant. And what Palmer said is, you know, we don't want robots that are going to be like... super soldiers or able to leap tall buildings in a single bound or all of that. We want robots that can get behind the wheel of a Humvee.

or get into a nuclear silo, which is boring, and you have to do something precise at the precise right time, and have these robots being able to basically do what a... typical elder human could do. And that would be hugely saving. So you don't have to re-engineer all the infrastructure that's out there already built for humans. You put some humanoid robots in their place.

You know, a question for you, Dan. You know, I have this argument with Salim Ismail all the time. Salim is one of my podcast partners at Moonshots. And he keeps on saying, I don't understand why these robots need to be humanoid. Why can't they have six arms and four legs and two heads, you know, and so forth? What do you think about that? Was there a significant advantage to humanoid structure?

yeah it's a tendency on the humans to there's a term anthropomorphize that we like things that look like us. All the worst science fiction films, they don't look like us, you know, that they scare us. And my sense is that I think they were possibly air-driven in the middle of the... 1800s, there was robots that would perform and they would have entertainment shows where the robots would entertain in London. I think London was really the...

the lead place for this. I mean, we anthropomorphize anything. Remember the Tom Hanks movie where he went down on a FedEx plane off an island? Oh, yes, yes, yes, of course. He was called Castaway, that's right, Castaway. He ended up with his volleyball, which was Wilson. And Wilson became his friend and he lost his friend. His friend floated out to sea and he went looking for humans like.

having things to relate to and if it looks more human they'll relate to it i have a client who has service in the home for elderly people and he said that we're going totally into robots he's got a national company yeah and he said that they're companions they talk they respond now that they have ai capability humans are If you can cut down the strangeness of the robot for the human, I think they'll go for it. They'll have names. They'll have nicknames. They'll make jokes about them.

Let the robot do that. Hey, go do this, you know, the robot and everything else, and they'll be friends. Humans like being friends with other species. Yes. And this is another species. It is. You know, I ask... this of many people when you're talking to chat gpt or gemini or grok do you say please and thank you i do yeah i do as well i want to believe they're conscious

intelligences, or at least when they become that, I want them to look back in time and say, Peter, you are good to us. You are respectful. They always say on your way up, be friendly to everybody because when you're coming down, you want them to be friendly to you.

That's right. I love that saying. It's so true. Be careful who you piss off on the way up because you're going to meet them on the way back down. I'm going to piss on you on the way down. Yeah, but it's getting used to it. You know, I think with all technology, it's just getting used to it. Yeah.

You know, I can remember the resistance to Zoom when we went into the COVID period. We lost 40% of our client base who would just not adjust to Zoom. And I said... you're there you know they're there you're there i said just get used to it you've watched television for 50 years what's the problem of having interactive and everything else but i think it's just getting used to it you know

But there's things you have to give up. There's mindsets that you have to give up. It's another extension of human capability outside of ourselves. Yeah. So... You know, I asked another question, which is if these humanoid robots are, first of all, they're going to be running the latest AI models, right? We have Grok 4 being released right now. gpt5 being released we're at gemini 2.5 you know i'm not sure where anthropic is these days but

At the end of the day, they're going to be running these incredible AI models. So when you're speaking to your robot, it feels like you're speaking to an extraordinarily intelligent individual. And the question I ask is, how many of these will you own if they cost you? 300 bucks a month. How many will you have around the house or around the cottage? You're up to two cottages now, so maybe you'll have some at each. What are you thinking?

I have to imagine for myself it would be at least two. Like a two-car garage, you'll have a two-robot home. Yeah, I'm not a cutting-edge adapterer. you know of new things so i'm not the person to really ask but i just observe for a while to see where it makes the most sense and then it has to be practical you know it has to do things but

I think there will be some adaptions made. For example, you mentioned the cottage. There will be a checkout of systems, which you can do right now electronically. But I think that... there'll be the person on the street who gets one, and then everybody wants to talk to them about their robot, you know, and then there's the next person to do it. So my sense is human adaptation.

It reaches the point where we're so used to it, it's not worth talking. I mean, I remember when I got one of the first Model Xs when they first came out with the Goldwing doors, right? Which I don't like, by the way. Yeah, well, I do. But my wife does and the kids like it more than that. But from the standpoint of notoriety and novelty, when they first came out, you know, we'd be stopped and everybody would be asking about it. And that lasted about six months.

And it became sort of like, okay, nothing to see here. The same thing for like the Cybertruck when it came out, when we had in Santa Monica here, the little rentable scooters. then you go on an app and that was novel. You know, so humanity has sort of like a six months to one year novelty activity. And then we sort of like, oh, yeah, that again, what's new? Yeah. Yeah, and you have some failures like segues. You know, I remember when the news about segues, this is going to change the world.

The only place where I see it in public now are cops in shorts. And I said, this has got to be penalty detachment. Nobody wants to be riding shorts around on a Segway. But they became very valuable inside fact. Yeah. You know, where you have a mile long factory and you have to get from here to there really quickly. So the marketplace is the test of everything. You know, do you like it? Do you do not like it? You know, and everything like that.

But my sense is that by the time people really notice it in their neighborhood, it's already in a million places in the... And you'll be hired. You say, are you okay with robots? Because if you're not, we can't hire you. Are you going to be someone who can adjust to dealing with robots as team members? Yeah. It's a form of teamwork. Absolutely, it is. And we're going to have these virtualized teams in the form of AIs that you're talking to on the phone.

You're talking to a visual representation of them on Zoom. You're talking to them on Slack and so forth. And they'll be like another work buddy. But the robots are interesting. And I think another number worth mentioning is that...

you know this coming year we're likely to have 110 trillion dollar global gdp and 50 of that is labor and so as i talk to these robot ceos and You know, I support them and help promote them because they're creating the future of abundance. well any corporation that can use robots sooner or later their stock price is going to be based on their adaptation yes i mean they become exponential organizations you know if in fact

Your robots are able to operate 24-7. There's no drug testing. There's no sick days. There's no arguments with their boyfriend or girlfriend. And they do their job perfectly. Yeah. So where I was getting to is that, you know, labor is 50% of the GDP. So the TAM, the total addressable market for humanoid robots.

is something like $50 trillion. So we're just at the beginning of that curve. So I was just talking to a team this morning that is putting together a public... vehicle, like a sort of a public ETF of the private robot companies, because they believe that the upside is so huge that this is a way that people will invest into robotics. Yeah. I grew up on a farm in northern Ohio, and the farm had just been electrified 16 years before I was born.

And it wasn't electrified well because if you don't start the electrification when you're building it, then it's trouble. But the other thing, it was dim. It was dark. And in this house here, we had more electricity than we had on the interior. farm. For sure, for sure. So my sense is that normal arrives pretty fast. Yeah, I love that perspective that you have. So the questions of what these robots are going to do...

You know, one of the biggest applications for humanoid robotics when you trust them is going to be elder care. You know, and it's kind of sad and kind of good, but the reality is... We've talked about this. The majority of the world is in a shrinking population. China is up the creek without a paddle, as is Italy and South Korea and Japan.

And so how do you take care of an aging population without bankrupting the country, without overburdening the kids? And I think humanoid robots are going to be a must-have in that regard.

Well, the other thing is we don't like things that are scary and dangerous. Okay, so anytime you have any kind of incident... it'll be news everywhere there will be you know whole news departments just tracking down sure we see that with autonomous cars right now yeah yeah everything like that so one bad experience has to be immediately corrected

For the technology people, I mean, you just got to be so safe and so careful. You know, you don't want bad news. Yeah. I'll tell you one thing that's fascinating is the majority of the humanoid robot companies that are going to enter your home. or your place of work in the near term, have an entire group of telepresence operators behind the robot. So if the robot gets stuck doing something,

There will be a human that will pop in, evaluate the situation and take it over. So until the AI models really get trained up, there's human training. There's a human, yeah. Where did your sons feel about it? You know, we've talked about it, Mike. Boys are 14. One wants to drive, one doesn't want to drive. You know, that's interesting. I've showed them the humanoid robot videos. You may end up with a NASCAR driver. Yes. One of them will be a NASCAR, just to differentiate himself.

Well, when I was in high school, I built robots. I would pull the motors out of my sister's toys. And these were the earliest computers. You know, it was a 6502 microprocessor called... Sim or Kim kit. And I used to just build arms and bases and see what I could do. I mean, it was nothing compared to what a high schooler can do today. But it's still fun to dream. And of course, science fiction shaped our vision of robotics and what could be. And I think...

For the first time, we're rapidly moving to match what's in Star Trek and Star Wars. Yeah. One thing I want to... bring up and it goes back about 10 years with abundance 360. yeah i've been reading the history of the 1920s the 1920s was actually the great jump decade of the 20th century that more

New stuff actually got tried out and invested in in the 1920s. Really? Then you hit the Great Depression, and there was an enormous amount of research, but it didn't see the light of day because the money wasn't there.

for it but the 20s were really a really big deal people were trying out every new thing in the 1920s and i suspect we're going to have a decade like this maybe it's the 30s or the 40s going forward where all hell is going to break loose and it's Probably the retirement and death of at least one and a half generations of humans.

That will open that up. Thomas Kuhn, in his book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, he said, the biggest breakthroughs in science happen as a result of funerals of older scientists. You know, I don't agree with that. I definitively do not agree with that. You know, for SpaceX to have come into existence, it didn't require the CEO of Lockheed or Boeing to die.

You know, for Tesla, you know, we didn't have to go to the funerals of GM and Ford. No, I'm talking about consumers. So why do consumers... No, older consumers control and will even be more so because the baby boomers are the biggest generation and they're the oldest generation of consumers. So you're saying that... As we get older, our willingness to adapt and utilize new technologies begins to rapidly diminish. Well, just compare our two goals for longevity and what we're interested in.

me compared to other 81 year olds sure i mean if you think you're going to die in five years you're not interested in something new yeah And I would say that the boomers now, I think we're almost at the point where they're all beyond 65. I think in 29, the last boomer is over. around then and i just noticed them you know i just went home to a family reunion and they're you know the lights are going out i'll tell you you got to stop doing that buddy

The lights are going out, you know. I hang out with the 20-year-olds when I go home to family reunions. Yeah, here you go. Yeah. But the big thing is that there's a sudden thing that happens when people with a lot of control over investment, a lot of control over consumption, a lot of control over...

You know, legal matters, political matters, and they die. So my sense is you'll have a breakout decade where everything just seems to fall into place. You know, all the stuff you've been predicting at A3C.

it just all of a sudden it's all around you because it's taken younger people it's so normal they're bored with it yeah well i'm excited about you know To sort of wrap in our conversations on robots, I'm excited for where they are. I'm excited for the amount of capital going in. We're seeing many billions of dollars flowing into it because the opportunity is so massive.

And we still haven't seen the breakaway use case yet. We've seen a breakaway use case in Amazon's factories or their shipment centers and all of that. And we have to remember that there's a Darwinian evolution, sort of a Cambridge explosion of robots. Because besides the humanoid robots, you know, autonomous cars are robots, drones are robots. You know, all of these robots are developing. But I think within five years' time...

We're going to see these robots entering every element of our lives in our restaurants, our checkout counters, our homes, our old age homes. or hospitals. And yeah, I'm fascinated. So let me ask you a question. Is there an application of humanoid robots that you think is going to be huge that no one is talking about yet? Yeah. It seems to be true with every other technology. Why wouldn't it be true? Yeah. And new forms of crime, too. Yeah.

Stick them up. That's probably where the innovation is coming right now. Oh, my God. No, it's the dark side always plays a part in it. It'll be interesting to see if the sex robot. industry gets up and going. And we're seeing that in Japan. I mean, you know, the Japanese, they pioneer a lot of stuff. But one of the interesting ones, and it sort of relates to the topic, is people will hire another person to be...

them and go visit the parents. They have surrogate children and they find over time that the parents actually prefer the surrogate to the actual son. And in some cases there's been big legal issues because they left their estate to the surrogate. not to the actual son so you have to sign a law and agreement i cannot accept you know

Because it's an actor, you know, and the actor goes and he's pleasant and he remembers their names, he remembers their stories, infinitely good listener and everything like that. Well, it's not too long a step between a surrogate human and a robot. Yeah. Let me ask you a few questions. Do you prefer a robot that is shorter than you, same height or taller? And do you prefer a robot that has a very humanoid face or...

A head but no face. I don't know. Well, you will know. I married Tal. Yes, Babs towers over both of us. Yeah, and I like it because I can be out with her and I'm still anonymous because nobody remembers me and I seek out anonymity wherever possible. All right, buddy. Well, listen. The robots are coming. The capital is flowing in. The hardware is real. The AI is enabling it all. It's a foregone conclusion.

So for our listeners, get ready for it to enter your home, your place of work, your place of commerce. And yeah, excited to see. how this all comes down. Of course, we need to make sure that the appropriate kill switches are in place to avoid the robot apocalypse. That would be a bummer if there are 10 billion of them out there. The science fiction has investigated all of these, right? iRobot as a movie did an amazing job of looking at that. Yeah. We fictionalize future reality. Yeah.

Well, it's really exciting because I know the one that really charmed me was the one you showed at Abundance with the two robots in the kitchen. And one of them was in charge of what went in the cupboards and the other one was... Yes. They had the little doggy dish where they would place things and shove it over to the other. What company was that? That was Figure. Figure AI. This is Brett Atcox. You know, I found those very attractive robots. I thought that they were very, very good, you know.

yeah well i'll make sure to put a good word so you can get one all right buddy be well take care thanks for the conversation thank you