Expected Own Goals - podcast cover

Expected Own Goals

xpectedowngoalsxpectedowngoals.podbean.com
Evan Davis and Eric Morgan are best friends who love each other. But they love women's soccer more. Every week, the guys sit down to explore the tactical and analytical sides of the women's game, covering the NWSL, USWNT, WSL, Women's Champions Leauge, Liga MX Femenil, and beyond. No stone is left unturned as they seek to learn more and more about how women's soccer is played, who's good, who's not, and who is going to win it all.
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Episodes

NWSL Week 15: Derbies, Oppressive Heat, and Unpacking the Sean Nahas Firing

For the first time in over six years, we saw the second straight weekend where more than half the games ended in a draw. Oppressive heat? Weather delays? Who's to say. The guys whip around the league and tease out the storylines from all seven matches. Then, they get into Sean Nahas's firing from the North Carolina Courage. They lay out the entire timeline beat for beat, and see what conclusions, if any, they can draw from the Courage's disastrous handling of the situation. Join our Patreon for ...

Aug 12, 202559 min

NWSL Week 14: Rodman and Sentnor and Copa América NARRATIVE CHAOS

The NWSL is back! And boy oh boy not much happened, until everything did. The guys dissect the blockbuster transfer of Ally Sentnor to the Kansas City Current (01:48) then whip around the rest of the league (26:41) before hitting their featured game of the week, the Washington Spirit's 2-1 victory over the Portland Thorns. (34:28) There's tactics, and then there's Trinity Rodman scoring in her first game in four months. We wrap things up dissecting the other insane game of the weekend, Brazil's ...

Aug 05, 202559 min

Euros Final Recap: It's (Sorta) Coming Home, as England Best Spain on Penalties

After more than three weeks and 31 games, we have a new Euros champion and...it's the old champion! England have won their second trophy thanks to some real fortune, opportunistic chance-taking, and another intense penalty shootout. The guys pick through everything England and Spain had to offer, and how this sets up both sides for the World Cup in 2027. Plus, they analyze a heartbreaking WAFCON final for Morocco, who dropped a 2-0 lead to Nigeria. The Super Falcons regain the trophy for the 10t...

Jul 29, 202545 min

Euros Quarterfinal Recap: England and Germany Miraculously Go Through, Spain and Italy Await

Spain took care of business against Switzerland. Italy exposed Norway's weaknesses. Sweden, England, France and a 10-player Germany chucked haymakers at each other for a combined 240+ minutes and two insane penalty shootouts. In the end, it is England and Germany who walk away and move on to the Euros semifinals. The guys take all four games apart and preview this week's two semifinal contests. Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbo...

Jul 21, 202553 min

Euros Group Stage Recap: Sweden, France Top Groups, England Still with Much to Do

The group stage of UEFA Women's Euro 2025 has officially concluded, and France is looking pretty unstoppable. Are they? Les Bleues took the Netherlands apart 5-2 to sit at the group D summit, and a weakened Germany await in the next round. Sweden were already in the driver's seat before Carlotta Wamser's red card, but they put the Germans away with ease 4-1 and now face England in the quarterfinal. England demolished Wales 6-1, but which version of the side will show up against Sweden this week?...

Jul 15, 202552 min

Euros Group Stage, Round 1: France Put England to the Sword

The first round of the group stage at UEFA Women's Euro 2025 is in the books! Evan and Eric round up all the action, plus the second round from groups A & B, to marvel at Spain's demolition of two minnows, Iceland's unjust elimination, and Norway's ability to keep getting away with this. Then, the guys dive into the group stage's marquee matchup, France's 2-1 defeat of England. How did things go so wrong for Sarina Wiegman's side? In what ways did Laurent Bonadéi's tactics suprise? How can E...

Jul 08, 20251 hr 7 min

UEFA Women's Euro Preview, Pt. 2: Groups B + C

Part 2 of our Euros preview attacks groups B and C. Spain and Germany are the group favorites. Could Sweden pip the Germans to the top group spot? Does Denmark stand a chance on the back of Pernille Harder? Why do people keep thinking Portugal are dark horses? And won't someone please think of the poor Italians? Plus, our predictions for the knockout stage! Join our Patreon to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs Chapters Spain: 00:5...

Jul 02, 202555 minEp. 189

UEFA Women's Euro Preview, Pt. 1: Groups A + D

The Euros are here! Kicking off Wednesday in Switzerland, 16 teams vie for the biggest trophy in European women's football. The guys analyze Groups A and D in part 1 of their two-part preview. How does Switzerland compare to previous tournament hosts? Is Iceland the tournament's dark horse? Can the Netherlands weather their injury worries? What's going on with France's lineup? Could England really repeat as champions? Find out! Join our Patreon to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by E...

Jul 02, 202548 minEp. 188

USWNT Recap: For the Irish, Denver & Cincinnati are Houses of Pain

The USWNT tore off a couple friendlies over the weekend, hammering the Republic of Ireland 8-0 across matches in Commerce City and Cincinnati. There were few learnings to speak of, but that doesn't mean the guys don't try to dig a few out. Most importantly: will anyone become the new left back? Anyone???? Join our Patreon to get all our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices...

Jul 01, 202537 minEp. 186

NWSL Week 13: We Need to Talk About Utah

We've reached the halfway point of the 2025 NWSL regular season, and though we've been putting it off as long as possible, we have no choice but to discuss the Utah Royals. After a quick whiparound (2:19) and an analysis of the Seattle Reign's side of their 4-1 victory in Sandy (25:38), the guys get to the state of the Royals organization. How have they managed to be worse this season than during Amy Rodriguez's time as head coach? Can Jimmy Coenraets get these players to play expansively and pr...

Jun 24, 20251 hr 1 minEp. 185

NWSL Week 12 Recap: Bay's Home Loss to Orlando; plus, Angel City Head Coach Alex Straus!

Another week, another slightly chaotic result. Bay FC lost 1-0 at home to the Orlando Pride, but not without producing some scintillating stuff in the game-state-driven closing stage of the match. Might Bay be turning the corner in spite of the result? Might Orlando be just fine despite some regression from last year? The guys puzzle it over (21:06). Then, they chat with new Angel City FC head coach Alex Straus about his coaching philosophy, his ambitions for this season, and what the team can a...

Jun 17, 20251 hr 14 minEp. 181

NWSL Week 11: San Diego Returns to Baseline, Seattle Sacrifices to Sufferball Gods

NWSL clubs came out of the international break a little rickety, and with plenty of fire. The guys whip around the league to hit the officiating controversy with Gotham, puzzle over Alex Straus's first game with Angel City, and debate Louisville's future (1:51). Then, they peel back the layers of a grubby contest in San Diego between the Wave and the Seattle Reign. Has San Diego been getting lucky in attack? Can the Reign continue their trench warfare in all of these 1-goal victories? Just how r...

Jun 10, 20251 hrEp. 178

USWNT Recap: Two More First Caps, Plus NWSL Messiness

The U.S. women's national team put two more friendlies in the books. What can a 7-0 aggregate scoreline against China and Jamaica really tell us about the side, two years out from the 2027 World Cup? Has Phallon Tullis-Joyce grabbed the starting keeper job? Did Kerry Abello prove herself enough to be called back in? Could Alyssa Thompson even be the better option than Mallory Swanson on the left wing? The guys try to find sticky answers to all this and more (2:50). They also rant about the meani...

Jun 05, 20251 hrEp. 177

NWSL Week 10: Understanding the Sam Laity "Era" of Angel City

Six games, 27 goals: 4.5 goals per game this weekend marks the second-highest per-game goal total over a single NWSL matchweek in league history. It's been nearly four years since a matchweek saw no clean sheets recorded. It was goals galore! The guys touch on Gotham's CONCACAF W Champions Cup victory in Mexico (00:43), then whip around the goalscoring bananza across five other NWSL matches (02:33), before digging into Angel City's 3-2 home loss to Racing Louisville. They break down Louisville's...

May 27, 202559 minEp. 175

NWSL Week 9: HEAT CHECK Part II

The numbers? Still Sticky! But before they dive back in, Eric and Evan briefly discuss the latest USWNT Roster and one very notable omission (hint: it rhymes Shmorbin Shmalbert). Then, the guys are joined once more by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to finish their review of the data, check their sometimes questionable priors (Utah), and call out a few of their own goals (again, Utah). Teams featured in Part II: Utah Royals (5:42) North Carolina Courage (14:13) Gotham (20:32) Bay FC (27:36) Kansas ...

May 21, 20251 hr 17 minEp. 173

NWSL Week 9: HEAT CHECK Part I

The numbers are sticky (or, at least, stickier)! Finally, we have a clearer picture of which teams are contenders and which teams still have some (or a lot of) work to do. The guys are joined by Kim McCauley of the Guardian to sort through the data, check their priors, and call out a few of their own goals. Teams featured in Part I: Chicago Stars (2:03) Houston Dash (9:22) Portland Thorns (17:36) San Diego Wave (28:34) Seattle Reign (37:42) Racing Louisville (43:13) Angel City (49:23) Join our P...

May 20, 20251 hr 2 minEp. 171

NWSL Week 8: Chicago Stars are Blind

Believe it or not, the guys were already planning on featuring the Chicago Stars' 3-2 loss at home to the Washington Spirit as their game of the week, and then Lesley Ryder published her story on the state of the Stars . Much of what Stars GM Richard Feuz said that piece was embodied by Chicago, who put up their best attacking performance at home in nearly three years, but promise little for the future. The guys whip around the league (1:45) and then dive into what the Spirit's defense is still ...

May 13, 20251 hr 1 minEp. 168

NWSL Week 7: Parity 4evr????

The top-4 only managed to grab a single combined point over the weekend. Does this mean last year's us-and-them table is a thing of the past? Maaaayyyyybe. The guys whip around the league to figure some of this out (2:56), and then close with the Portland Thorns' 1-0 win over the Orlando Pride at Providence Park (37:59). Barbra Banda was all alone, Coffey and Hina bossed proceedings, and Olivia Moultrie is locking in. Join our Patreon for $6/month ($60/year) to get all of our exclusive bonus con...

May 06, 20251 hr 3 minEp. 166

NWSL Week 6: Chaos League Whiparound

All games from this weekend are our featured game, because too much insanity occurred for one match to pull focus. The guys go through all of it, from Orlando's epic comeback to North Carolina's at-the-death victory to a foul-choked draw between Portland and Louisville, not to mention Gotham's beatdown of Washington, Chicago's whimper of a performance against San Diego, the kooky draw between Bay FC and Seattle, and the utter contempt for soccer that Houston vs. Utah represented. CHAPTERS 3:35 -...

Apr 29, 202556 minEp. 165

NWSL Week 5: The Wave Go Surfing in Louisville

The whiparound, like the weekend's NWSL action, doesn't exactly quicken the guys' pulses on today's episode (00:41). But there are many important things to address with the Washington Spirit's 1-0 road win against the Orlando Pride, not least of which is the handling of Ashley Hatch's concussion (10:48). This week's featured game takes us down to Kentucky, where the Wave pasted Racing 4-1. But what was going on beneath the surface? Is San Diego a contender? Do the underlying data or the eye test...

Apr 22, 202537 minEp. 164

NWSL Week 4: Gotham on Fire, North Carolina Courage Adrift

Seven games, six road victories, four of them shutouts. It was a weird weekend in the NWSL, and the guys scan the ups and downs from all of the action (1:14). Then, they peruse Gotham's 3-1 home victory over the North Carolina Courage (23:01). Each club had a starting center back missing, but only one didn't play like it. Is Gotham the sleeping giant that has finally awoken? Has North Carolina reached the end of the road with Nahas-Ball, especially since Jaedyn Shaw and Ashley Sanchez really are...

Apr 15, 20251 hr 2 minEp. 160

USWNT Recap: A Split Card against Brazil

One for them, one for us. The USWNT beat Brazil fairly comfortably in Trinity Rodman's return to the U.S. lineup in front of over 32,000 in Los Angeles, while an incredibly green squad went down 2-1 to the Seleção in San Jose. The guys tackle Saturday's victory first (3:05) before noting that each friendly was a mirror image of each other from a tactical and personnel perspective (7:11). This leads into figuring out who might now be at the top of the USWNT goalkeeper depth chart. (16:47) The guy...

Apr 10, 202555 minEp. 158

NWSL Week 3: Angel City's Up, Seattle Reign are Wayyyyy Down

More draws! With even fewer goals! The guys whip around the league to gawk at some less-than-stellar matches (1:40) before diving into this week's featured contest, Angel City's 2-1 defeat of the Seattle Reign at home. We preamble a bit (17:00), and then peel back what's been suprisingly effective about Angel City's attack (19:00), before trying to understand how Seattle could be even messier than we expected (31:40). We cap it off with a discussion of what kind of a player fans can expect Chris...

Apr 01, 202549 minEp. 157

NWSL Week 2: Clash of the Top-4 Titans

The top four all played each other this weekend, in a couple of tasty fixtures filled with drama and intrigue. After the whiparound of the league's fixtures, the guys get into the main events. (8:28) The Kansas City Current got the officiating calls to go their way and Temwa Chawinga tore the Washington Spirit's heart out at the last second. (26:52) The Orlando Pride didn't score once in open play but dispatched Gotham 2-0 in front of their home fans in New Jersey. What do we now know about thes...

Mar 25, 20251 hrEp. 156

NWSL Week 1 Power Rankings

One down, 25 to go! The first round of NWSL matches is in the books for 2025, and it was a morass of beatdowns and 1-1 draws. Who's up and who's down relative to our preseason rankings? The guys look at all seven games and figure out who has shifted since they made their initial picks. Join our Patreon for only $6/month (or $60/year) to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoice...

Mar 18, 202553 minEp. 155

NWSL Preview Week: Gotham FC, with Jenna Tonelli

The Bats took flight across the regular season, but were felled in penalties to Washington in the NWSL playoffs. Then the rumors of behind-the-scenes discord kicked up. Then a dozen players departed. Amid all of this upheaval, do they still have the goods to be one of the best teams in the league? Jenna Tonelli of Sports Illustrated dropped by to pitch herself as Gotham's goalie, with Evan as the no. 9 in a pinch. Join our Patreon for only $6/month ($60/year) to get all of our exclusive bonus co...

Mar 14, 202537 minEp. 154

NWSL Preview Week: North Carolina Courage, with Kim McCauley

The Courage made a massive splash in getting Jaedyn Shaw in the winter. After Kerolin moved on, the club needed a creative artist to help unlock a moribund attack. But can she fit into the broader structure of head coach Sean Nahas's plans? Kim McCauley of the Guardian came on to separate the wheat from the chaff in the club with one of the strongest reputations in the NWSL. Join our Patreon for only $6/month ($60/year) to get all our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli Elbogen Music by Devin Dr...

Mar 14, 202533 minEp. 153

NWSL Preview Week: Kansas City Current, with Thom Bomb of Shea Butter FC

The Kansas City Current were the best team on paper last year. They rostered the league's MVP and producer of one of the greatest seasons in league history, Temwa Chawinga. But they fell to budding rivals Orlando Pride in the semifinal. Are they read to take the next step and win a trophy? Thom Bomb of Shea Butter FC and Shades of Blue walked the guys through the (few) roster changes the club made, and how they can improve upon last year's historic performance. Join our Patreon for only $6/month...

Mar 13, 202546 minEp. 151

NWSL Preview Week: Portland Thorns, with Kim McCauley

Who is going to play for the Portland Thorns? With Sophia Wilson gone for the year, and Morgan Weaver on the bench for potentially all season, their attack feels thin. Their defense is getting a hard reboot, too. Portland may. have never had more questions around them than right now. Kim McCauley of the Guardian tries to find some silver lining in the dark clouds, with varying degrees of success. Join our Patreon for only $6/month ($60/year) to get all of our exclusive bonus content! Art by Eli ...

Mar 13, 202556 minEp. 148

NWSL Preview Week: Bay FC, with Anna Daccache

Bay FC made the playoffs in their first season, and are rolling out a solid lineup with some high-upside college signings this year. But an investigation into allegations of bullying and harassment by head coach Albertin Montoya—along with the resignation of scout Graeme Abel over an earlier such report before he joined the club—has changed the complexion of the entire organization. Anna Daccache of Everything Bay Goals tries to parse her feelings on these recent stories, and what the team itsel...

Mar 12, 202555 minEp. 147
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