Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now. We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is...
Jul 16, 2025•57 min•Season 1Ep. 333
Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility. We discuss: What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter How...
Jul 11, 2025•51 min
In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets. Paolini also shares ...
Jul 08, 2025•58 min•Season 1Ep. 332
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation...
Jun 28, 2025•1 hr 30 min•Season 1Ep. 331
Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken? In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He a...
Jun 25, 2025•59 min•Season 1Ep. 330
In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game , to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it. We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stic...
Jun 23, 2025•51 min•Season 1Ep. 329
Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving you...
Jun 21, 2025•1 hr 17 min•Season 1Ep. 328
Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are Missing In this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now. We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are...
Jun 19, 2025•55 min•Season 1Ep. 327
GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfol...
Jun 15, 2025•57 min•Season 1Ep. 326
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment,...
Jun 12, 2025•59 min•Season 1Ep. 325
David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking ...
Jun 09, 2025•1 hr 1 min•Season 1Ep. 324
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why European pension funds ...
Jun 07, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 323
🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio Design In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to r...
Jun 05, 2025•1 hr 8 min•Season 1Ep. 322
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identi...
Jun 02, 2025•55 min•Season 1Ep. 321
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets usi...
May 31, 2025•56 min•Season 1Ep. 320
In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself. Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insight...
May 28, 2025•29 min
In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From...
May 24, 2025•56 min•Season 1Ep. 319
What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in th...
May 17, 2025•53 min
In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more res...
May 14, 2025•56 min•Season 1Ep. 318
In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than p...
May 06, 2025•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 317
Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about, Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respo...
May 03, 2025•52 min•Season 1Ep. 316
In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investm...
Apr 30, 2025•51 min•Season 1Ep. 315
Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom. Topics Covered: Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of th...
Apr 26, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 314
When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”. Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to optio...
Apr 21, 2025•1 hr 12 min•Season 1Ep. 313
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything. Topics Covered: Andrew's early career at Goldman Sac...
Apr 16, 2025•1 hr•Season 1Ep. 313
Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers...
Apr 13, 2025•55 min•Season 1Ep. 312
In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times. Main Topics Covered: Jim’s perspective on market corrections and ...
Apr 09, 2025•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 311
In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the ...
Apr 07, 2025•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 309
In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s chall...
Apr 05, 2025•54 min•Season 1Ep. 308
In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shapi...
Mar 27, 2025•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 307
