¶ Real Estate and Political Insights
We're really excited today to have Todd Cranny on the Ever Onward podcast . Todd is the owner and managing partner of Riverwood Strategies here in Boise . He grew up in Oakley , idaho , as a farm kid A farm kid probably doesn't do it justice . It's one of the largest farms , cranny Farms . It's a seventh generation farm in Oakley , idaho .
After attending Brigham Young University , he did an internship in Washington DC and his life took a sharp turn towards politics and Todd has basically run campaigns all over the United States for the last 20 years .
He's been involved in several large campaigns President Bush is reelect , arnold Schwarzenegger is reelect in California and he worked for Mitt Romney for his two elections . Todd has a lot of great stories . He is a great friend and a great Idahoan and American . Really looking forward to hearing from him today .
Before we talk to Todd today for the AllQuest update , we'll have Ryan Cleverley on just talking a little bit about updated news with our company and then we'll hear from Todd Cranny of Riverwood Strategies , ryan Cleverley , doing our AllQuest update this week . Man , we got a lot going on .
We do , there's always something . But it's like I always tell everybody . They always say you're really busy and we are , but when you talk to a lot of developers , everybody feels busy , but it's just , it's hard right now .
I think it's harder than ever to just kind of . It just seems like we're slogging a lot trying to get things done . It's harder , I think costs are high .
Costs are high , rates are high . It's made it challenging and and we're I mean the reality is it's July of 2024 . There's this thing called the election in November 2024 . And you kind of get into this window of time where everybody's like let's wait and see .
So we're kind of in that wait and see moment before companies and banks and , you know , investors kind of want to see what's going to happen .
Well , and surprisingly for us , here we you hear about depression in the market . Everywhere else we still have low inventory on , there's still labor still high . It's still kind of hard . So we didn't remember the last recession . We kind of had a reset . Yeah , Some things were easier because you had a reset .
Well , everybody's been waiting for some sort of a reset , but the reality is , I think there's areas or pockets that you might be seeing some sort of a reset , maybe on the residential side , but Boise's not probably going to see that kind of a reset .
It's really strong here and while I'm coming out a little bit on the negative side of what's happening in the market , there are incredible opportunities at the same time . People are moving here and it all depends on how you view the world right . I kind of view people moving here as you know . It's positive for development , it's positive for growth .
But we've always said this , and that's why we're in the business that we're in we want to control part of that narrative . We want to not control it but help be a part of it . Help put the infrastructure in place that's going to make Boise great for our kids and their kids .
And that's what we've got to try to do . Yeah , we still have the best place on the planet to live , and that's we do . People know that and people are still coming here . Um , what , what ?
Uh , we talked a little bit about this , but I do think that the entire country right now is just kind of like oh my goodness , like this is , we've never been in times like this .
Yeah , that that you you're still kind of in this slowdown , you get inflation that we're watching every month and you've got this election and the craziness of presidential politics going on right now and how that's going to all go internationally , all these geopolitical threats that are going on and what's going on in this a long time in a lot of different industries
.
What you can do is just kind of control what you can control , yep , and you plow forward every day and you , you just get through it right you know I went to an event you were there for part of it last friday night , listened to a lot of again the geopolitical side of it and at the end of it the most positive thing that came out of it for me and
this is probably getting like hyper religious and I don't mean to go there , but we kind of know how we win this thing .
Yeah .
And it's faith in a higher power . I'll call it .
Yeah .
We have to believe in that . We have to believe that things are going to be okay , but we can't stand by idly waiting for someone else to fix it .
Yeah .
Let's get after it and let's go figure out how we're going to do this stuff , but it's going to work out . So , yeah , it's a crazy , crazy time . I don't know that I would want to be a 20-year-old right now , going into this whole world . But they see it differently than we do .
We didn't grow up in their time and so they're like what are you talking about ? This is incredible . I've got so much opportunity and they do so . I think it's all perspective and we just have to keep plowing forward and saying , hey , we're going to make it work . We live in a great place . I mean , I feel incredibly blessed to live where we live .
You go look at the world , you just go read headlines and you're thinking , man , I'm so glad I have to deal with the smoke in the air today . Yeah , People are dealing with a whole lot of worse things to deal with and we're pretty blessed to live where we do .
It's a pretty cool place to be . Amen , that's like that was awesome . Well , that's our update for this week we're glad we're in America , we're glad we're in Idaho , and it's going to be great . It's going to be great . Yeah , thanks , buddy , thanks , how are you , buddy ?
I'm good man . How are you doing ? It's awesome to have you here . It's great to be here .
¶ Life Updates and Catching Up
You must be really hard up . Well , you were on .
So we have a list of people to come on , right , right , right , and you're like , you're like 99 out of 100 . Listen to this guy , one of my favorite guys , one of the favorite guys in the world . You're going to be . Well , let me tell you what happened . So I have you down Like she's calling setting up the next set of them , and I think you gotta go .
Claude , and you know , fahim rahim , oh , yeah , so he's , he was coming on today . He's a kidney doctor , right ? Yeah , yeah , he's in the . He's in the hospital with kidney stones . So he texted me this morning . He's like , hey , so anyway , poor like if you have to odds around oh my gosh , how's riggs .
Riggs is awesome , man . We , uh . We just got back from uh pace's wedding , my brother's son .
Didn't he go to like Vermont ?
Yeah , he did . In Vermont Beautiful spot hard to get to and then we got caught in the Delta .
Did you ?
Oh yeah .
With rigs .
With rigs in Minneapolis Airport . Holy cow , we were much more fortunate than others .
We had to spend the day in Minneapolis overnighted , and then we were lucky , we got a flight out on Monday morning and got home , but man , there were a lot of people that were in a tougher shape than we were , um so so so for our listeners , todd Cranny , long time friend , but bachelor yeah , long time bachelor but got married and have a little baby Riggs .
Is he what ? When's his birthday ?
So his birthday is Saturday I knew it was getting close . And then we have three others my wife has , we have our son Nix , who's 12 . We have Ruby , who's eight , and then we have Keely , who's 10 . And they're awesome . You're loving it ? Oh yeah , absolutely . It's everything I dreamed it would be and we're grateful .
So Grease has been amazing and she was a trooper and riggs was a trooper , he was a , he was a champ getting through the trip because we , we were , we were very compacted because we needed to get back to grab the other kids and so we it was , there was no , it was like land how far ? was how long was the delay ?
uh well .
So we landed in in minneapolis to connect around midday and we got you know , left for the airport at 5 am , like 3 , 3 am our time , and then it was delayed until the next morning and , like I said , we were very fortunate we got out , because there's some people it's like days right , there were like guys that are in there three days , so you had to go
to a hotel , or did you ? Yeah , we grabbed a hotel , we begged the Uber driver . No stuff . We had to beg the uber driver to let us go because we had . The car seat was checked , we had nothing . You know , he basically broke a lot of less . Get us to the hotel .
And then I went to target and got some stuff for rigs because we need some extra diapers and stuff . So anyway , all good , all good problems . Uh , we're grateful and , like I said , oh , hey , this is gonna be fun .
It's gonna be a lot of catch-up , though , because back when you were a bachelor yeah , and you always were you know you would , you would call , you would write , you would text me , we'd see each other , we'd go to lunch . And now it's like hey , where did Todd Craddy go ? I know , I know I'm still around .
I had to give you a little bit of grief because when I was in McCall I saw your sister Yep , Yep , and she's like hey , have you seen Todd , Is he still around ? And she was totally kidding .
She was like I don't know what happened to that guy . I know it's been awesome . It's definitely been a change , but a good change .
That's awesome , hey . So tell us a little .
¶ Multigenerational Farming and Political Endeavors
You've got a fascinating story and I want to get a little bit into politics with you today . Sure , but spending really your whole life in politics as a political consultant for various campaigns all around the country Yep , give me a little bit , because a lot of it is really high-profile stuff you did for a long time .
Yeah , well , as you know , we have a farm and ranch in southern Idaho where I was born and raised , so I'm fifth-generation Idahoan , and the farm's been in our family for over 110 years . I don't remember the exact number now , it's been so long I'm going to stop you every once in a while .
So from from Oakley , yes , from Oakley , from Oakley , idaho , as Idaho as it gets , and you always talk about the family farm , and then the first time I got to go visit the farm , when we talk about farm Todd , this is a like how many acres it's . This thing is like the sun never rises or sets on Cranny Farm right .
Yeah , well , no , I mean we're grateful . We have about 20,000 acres we farm and then we have also we have cattle as well . We have probably about 3,000 head of cattle now and my two cousins and my brother run the day-to-day of the farm and then I'm fortunate enough to be involved in the business side and sit on the board of the farm today .
So it's obviously a big part of who we are and a big part of our life . I mean , couldn't be more grateful , super lucky where we were born and raised , super proud of you know , obviously my dad and his two brothers were the fourth generation , took the farm to another level , and then my cousins and my brother have really taken the farm to another level .
We're working on generation six right now . Both my one cousin has a son home and then my brother has a son home , and so we're working on the transition to the sixth generation and we actually have seven generations on the farm right now . Both those kids have , you know , sons that you know we hope will take over the business in the seventh generation .
It's amazing . Yeah , we're grateful . I mean there's a lot of stories across Idaho like that . So we are not unique in that regard , probably unique nationally , not as unique as it is in Idaho .
You hear that a lot , which is one of the things that is unique , I think , about Idaho , is that you have a lot of that sort of generational family farming and ranching history and heritage and it's a big part of who you are and that's what I grew up doing , went to college at BYU , studied business management , and my plan the entire time was to go back to
the farm and , as you know , I still love the farm and I actually loved the farming , you know doing the work . I actually really loved it . I fell in love with it when I was .
I wasn't as excited about it when I was probably in high school and stuff , when you were just doing whatever you're told , but I became really excited about it when I was in college and I would go home every summer and run my dad's portion of the management piece of the farm and learn so much and loved it and was always planning on going back to the farm
and that was what I was going to do and it made up my mind and so that's why I studied business management finance . My dad was hilarious , as you know . Oh , your dad was . He's like you want to come back to this son of a gun place , you might want to learn some business . I can teach you the farming .
So , anyway , that was exactly what he said to me they broke the mold with Bill . Yeah , he was amazing . We learned so many things . And so my senior year of college , at BYU , I had always been interested in politics , but I wasn't super involved at all . I wasn't a member of any club or whatever , I just had followed it .
And I read a book about President Bush at the time and I thought you know , I'm going to graduate , I'm going to go back to the farm , that's what I'm going to do . Maybe it would be interesting to do an internship and do something else .
And so I applied for a bunch of internships in DC and I applied to the White House , but I thought there's no way I'll get there , it's whatever . It was the fall of 2001 . And I applied a bunch of different internships and then I got accepted to some .
I didn't hear anything from the White House , which I thought was a long shot , anyway Accepted and was getting ready to go back to DC , actually interned for Senator Crapo who's now a client of mine , by the way , who helped run his campaigns the last couple times .
And so all of a sudden I was out , and I remember this to this day is I'm out on the farm actually running a grain combine , and my dad had those two-way radios on the farm they don't do as much anymore , but everyone can hear it and my dad gets on the radio and calls me and he's like , hey , there's somebody on the phone from the White House that wants
to talk to you . He calls me and he's like , hey , there's somebody on the phone from the White House that wants to talk to you .
And I got offered an internship at the White House and so of course I took it and Senator Crapo's office was really understanding and great , and we made the change and so I arrived in DC the fall of 2001 , just a few days before 9-11 . And so I was there for 9-11 . 11 . And that was just a , you know .
You know , obviously it was , it was in a , it was a historic and just a tragic and just a , you know , just a crazy day in American history .
And you know , I had just I was at the White House when that happened and it , you know , that day , which is a longer , you know I could tell you the whole story that day , which was just crazy , just totally embedded in my mind , you'll never forget .
You know , after that , the rest of my internship experience was just so interesting and unique that I had a semester left at BYU to finish my degree Before you
¶ Chaos and Unity in DC
go on .
What was it ? Because , like you think about how pulled apart we are as a nation , you go back to that time after 9-11 . Yeah , it was , at least in my lifetime . Was this time ? You remember President Bush visiting the site ?
You remember like , everywhere you went flags and it was like everyone put down partisan disagreements and for one , I don't know how long it lasted , todd , whether that was a day or a week or months , but it was like we were all united as Americans for a short time . What was that like , being in the White House during that time ?
Yeah , it was crazy . So you know I was an intern among you know there were 100 and whatever many interns . So I'm not going to sit here and tell you I was hanging out with George W Bush in the Oval Office . I mean I got a chance to , you know , be in meetings and stuff . What was crazy about that day was multiple things .
One was it was a beautiful September day and I was answering the phones as an intern does and all of a sudden we had the TV on and we were watching Fox News and when we first saw the visuals of the Twin Towers , you've got to remember now it's pretty normal for everyone to think about terrorism , but in that timeframe pre-2001 , 9-11 , you really didn't , you
couldn't really compliment what's going on . So we literally watched it and we're like man , well , maybe there's , you know it's , maybe some of the Cessnas got mixed up . I mean you really are thinking about stuff that really isn't logical , like how could a couple of Cessnas hit that and do that damage ?
But you're just not processing that it was terrorism in any way , shape or form at the time , and you're just seeing it real live and we were watching it . And then the president came on and made his brief speech in Florida .
We knew he was on an education trip in Florida at the time and then , as soon as he got done , like my phone started like lighting up and they're like we're getting evacuated from our boss .
I was working in the Intergovernmental Affairs Office at the time , which deals with the governors and all of the elected officials , and they're like we're getting evacuated , what are you doing ? And I was like I don't know what's going on . And then as soon as I hung up , the Uniformed Secret Service came to our office and was like get out , get out , get out .
And they just rushed us out of the , out of the White House , out of the West wing of the White House or out of the West . We were there I was in the executive office building at the time and they exited us out of the West side of the of the White House . And when that happened like they were just screaming at us to run .
You know it was , you know no , everyone was running . Pick up your shoes , ladies with high heels . And it was crazy . And as soon as we exited the west side of the white house complex , we looked . I looked to my left , which is south , and there you could see the smoke billowing from the pentagon .
And then you looked up and literally you saw the secret service on the top of the white house with surface air rocket launchers and everyone was pointing in the air because there was a commercial airliner in the air .
And at the time we didn't know what was going on because even pre-9-11 , the airspace around DC was always restricted , but Reagan Airport's right on the edge of it , and so people , they skirt it , you know , as they land , as they do today , but no one had ever , no one was used to seeing a commercial airliner in the top .
And so it was like what is going on here , like the secret service , like everyone knew , like when I saw the smoke , that's when I realized like something is fundamentally wrong here . But again , you're not honest , like there were no cell phones at the time , you're not like on TV , you're , you're living this real life . You don't know what's going on .
We're standing next to that thing and literally what I learned later was that plane was on approach to Reagan .
When the FAA shut down , all the airports across the country had nowhere to go , so they were circling and some of the jets that were scrambled to try to catch some of the planes in different places , eventually landed that plane because they didn't , you know , they were just trying to land every plane . No one knew what was going on .
And so at this point we're standing there next to the White House and so I'd been in DC like four days . I rode in , we were living , I was living in Falls Church , virginia , at rooming with some guys and basically they dropped me off at the White House Like I didn't know anything . I didn't know where I was , what was going on .
I had been there once when I was in high school , but I didn't know anything and literally , like you know , one of my bosses said hey , do you want me to try to drive ? Yeah , for you me , take me home . But I knew enough a little bit . We'd come in the week and before on the t system . So I just kind of follow my way out .
So , as we're , I'm working my way out . They shut down all the metro system and the metrics , like t's in boston , but metro is what they call it , the subway system in dc . They shut it all down inside of of the city , the district , and I'm working my . I'm starting to just be like , okay , what do we do ?
Just got to stay calm and I'm not , my , I'm starting to just be like , okay , what do we do ? You just got to stay calm and I'm not .
It's a weird thing to say this , but it really was one of the most comforting thing that I thought in my mind which I know is probably sounds strange to some is that the last thing I saw was President Bush and he just , you know , and I just kept thinking in my mind okay , he's airborne on Air Force One , they're figuring out what's going on .
There's nothing you can do . You just got to find your way home . That's what you got to do here . And literally I run into this guy on the side of the street , dressed business guy , just a buttoned up guy , and he had lost it . And he's up against the wall and he's like they're gone , they're gone , they're blankety blank gone .
And I'm like , sir , are you okay ? What ? What's gone ? And he's like the twin towers are gone . He said another plane swooped in . It was , and I'm like .
And then I was like , and so in my mind , when I saw the last thing I saw on Fox News , like they were just on fire , it didn't look like it was that much damage and I was like and then I heard that the they hit the Sears Tower and then I heard that they hit the State Department and there was all this misinformation .
And you're hearing all this stuff as you're wandering through DC .
And I was just wandering my way to the edge of DC so I could try to find a Metro stop because they'd shut all the metros down inside but they were still letting some go out of DC and we were living in Virginia and so I finally worked my way to this stop and I can't remember the stop now as a blue line stop , a blue orange line , orange blue line stop
. It's this like uh , escalator . That's just like I don't know how to describe it like the longest escalator in history . You drop down into the metro and we're just packed in there working our way slowly in and right as we're about to get into the metro . This takes takes like a while .
Um , this lady just freaks out , says I gotta get out of here , this is a good place for a bomb . And I was like and me and this Air Force guy he was a uniformed Air Force guy just like calmed down and as soon as the door opened , when we finally got the door , I mean , people were almost cramming onto each other , everyone was really panicky .
And finally we get inside the Metro and I hadn't been really scared at this point because I was really more just like whoa , what's going on ? This is , you know , fascinating , holy cow . I mean , what's happening , what's happening ? But we get in the Metro and we go , and it goes underneath the Potomac right , take you out to Virginia and we stop .
No lights , it's dark . We sit there for like 15 minutes and that's the first time I contemplated my eternal perspective of like you're like this is . Maybe it's been a good 21 I can't remember how old I was 24 but it's been a good 24 years . I've had a good ride . It's over . I really thought it was over and then eventually we got .
I got out and then got to the stop because I just kind of figured out I get to the stop I need to get to . And then I got a cad and again , no cell phones . Like I didn't have a cell , I don't think it would have mattered because things would have been overloaded .
Got back to our apartment , we were in a townhouse in Falls Church , virginia , and my roommates were there and they were just like , oh , they were grateful I was there and I had a big mobile Motorola farm that we had from the farm that they took with me , and so I called my parents from that .
But I didn't take it with me , it was just there as emergencies and I got ahold of my parents . But when I walked in , like that's when it was real , like Twin Towers were gone and you could get the update , because at this point I didn't know anything about what was really going on . So that was just one of the craziest days .
And then after that , the thing I'll tell you to finish . Part of this is the contrast of the next day . So the president flew back . As you know , everyone knows kind of the story of the rest of that , so I don't want to relive that , but he gets back in the White House .
One of the things I will say that was an interesting story was when he flew back from Andrews that night . He flew over cover and you know it's Marine One , there's three of them and you never know which one is the president , and they do that obviously with decoys and stuff .
And so they flew from Andrews and they flew near the Pentagon and the president and they flew over the Pentagon and ultimately they banked and took a look . And I never forget what Karl Rove told us his story about this .
He said that basically , when they pinched over , the president said take a good look at this , boys , boys , this is what war looks like in the 21st century . And so they landed and then the president was bound to determine that a White House would be open for business the next day .
And the next day I couldn't tell you , tommy , how big of a contrast the day was . September 11th was a beautiful , amazing September day in DC . The next day it was rainy and the White House was cordoned off six blocks around . The National Guard was in the streets .
I mean you couldn't get anywhere near without your pass to get into the White House , like the contrast was so different and obviously that shaped President Bush's presidency and I'm still a huge fan .
There's a lot of differing opinions and differing things that he wasn't perfect on , I understand , but that guy was a man of moral courage and character , still is , and had a huge moral compass and did what he thought was right and what he thought was right for the American people and he really particularly did that during that period of time and I think he did
it through his entire presidency , despite any mistakes he may have made .
Amen . Sorry , that was a huge derail , but . I never heard that whole story .
Yeah , it's a , it's a , and like I can remember that day , like it was yesterday it was . I can still remember that Some days you know how it goes . You just it's in , it's just in the depth of your mind .
And so the reason I brought that story up is because after I graduated from the Y , I had a semester left , you know , because I just did the fall internship and then I went back , finished my degree and then I went back to the farm and it was great and I loved it and it was the hardest decision I've ever made in my life .
But you know , I just had kind of thought , you know , do I , is this , what ? Am I doing this because this is what I'm supposed to do , or am I doing this because this is what I'm expected to do ? And again , I loved farming . I was single , as you know , long time bachelor .
That continued for a long time , until recently , thankfully , and basically what happened was I just was like you know , I just knew .
And actually the conversation with my dad was what cinched it , and my dad , obviously he wanted me to stay and that was actually one of the funnest things was working with my dad , and I love my dad , and you know he's my hero , and .
But I talked to my dad and I asked him about it and he said you know , son , in life you're going to be a pro , you're going to be , you're going to make a lot of decisions . And he said sometimes you know , you know right or left . You know you're not a hundred percent sure .
And what he told me essentially was like , look , you're gonna make some decisions and sometimes you're going to wonder you know , I went right , should I went left ? He said and if that's a small part of what you're thinking , that's normal . You always maybe have some wonders about whether you should went left .
When you went right , he said , but if it's a big part of what you're thinking right now , then you probably got to go try something else and see if this is the right thing to do for you . And that's what you know
¶ Career Crossroads
. I'll never forget it . And that was what basically made the final decision and and I so I moved to DC and that's when my political career started .
And then I was planning on coming back a bunch of times and and you know my cousins and my brother are probably grateful I didn't , but I've actually , I think , been more helpful to them now , honestly , than than , than than , if I would have come back sooner .
But um , you know , and that just led to one thing , led to another and led to my started my political career and that's where we went , so so worked .
I want I want to get into some of these because you have some great . I think I first met you on the Mitt Romney campaign .
Yep , yep , back the first time . Yeah , yeah , I've worked on both of Mitt's campaigns . Yeah , I started on President Bush's reelection campaign and again , that's what the motivation was was I wanted to work for him . I was a big fan of him and so I moved back to DC .
I worked on the Hill for a year while the campaign was getting ramped up and then I went to work for the president's campaign in DC and then got sent out to California and Nevada and after the president won , I actually there was a job at the White House , but it I actually there was a job at the White House but wasn't quite ready or available .
This is actually a great story , and this actually was another turning point for me in my life was . So I took a political appointment at the Department of Agriculture and the FSA office , which was really cool and interesting , and I thought it'd be interesting for the farm stuff , and I'm still very seriously thinking about going back to the farm pretty immediately .
So I took that job while the White House job was kind of getting ready to go . They had a job , but it was going to take some time before they would have the transition and this is a you'll appreciate this , knowing my dad as well . I called my dad and I was like , hey , you know that thing you said about the Department of Agriculture .
And he's like no , what ? And I said you know you could say you could get rid of 80% of it and you never know it was there . And he's like , yeah , and I was like , well , you were wrong . And he's like , oh yeah , oh yeah , big shot , big DC guy . Huh , you know more than I do .
And I said , no , you were wrong , you get rid of 95% of it and you would never know it was there . And he laughed and he goes well , I'm glad you learned something . Back there , said because he had a very colorful in a good way colorful set of vocabulary from the farm .
But anyway , so he , I took that job for a little bit and then I kind of got restless because while the white house job was going because it was pretty boring in the department bag although I was involved in the Hurricane , santa Katrina stuff and that was actually really interesting and the recovery pieces of that in Mississippi and Louisiana which are huge ag
areas and so there's a lot of stuff going on there . But um , so then I thought , well , maybe I want to go try the venture or the finance route and go work , you know , in New York .
And so my brother , mark , huge venture capital guy now he was working the time for Mark Andreessen , and so Mark Andreessen very kindly got me these introductions and interviews in New York and so I went down to New York and I I met with like the head of , you know , I mean Mark Andreessen's a big deal , obviously , as everyone knows , and he got me into like
the head of private wealth at JPMorgan Chase and the head George Herbert Walker , one of the cousins of the president at Goldman Sachs , and then another guy named Herb Allen III with Allen Co , and so I interviewed and made the rent of Allen's and this was actually one of the greatest lessons I .
One of the greatest , one of the lessons I hope to carry on for folks is that I great , it was a really great experience , you know , and I came close to you know , accepting actually the Goldman offer . They made me an offer in originally San Francisco and they changed it to New York .
But when I met with Herb Allen , herb Allen III , he was just taking over for his dad , he was like in his late 30s and I didn't know what Allen Co was . I had no freaking clue .
Like to this day I kind of do wonder if I screwed up here , because I was like I didn't know what Allen Co was , I didn't know what Alan and Co was , I didn't know Jack , I didn't know . I mean , I knew Mark Andreessen was a big deal and that's the only reason I was getting these interviews . But then after that you're on your own .
You've got to kind of you know interview . So I sat down with Herb Allen and we had this great conversation . He was one of the coolest guys I've ever met and he goes well , todd , I'll , we'll hire you here at Allen and Company . You'd be , you'd be great at this . You , you know you can do this . He says but you know , can I give you some advice ?
And I was like yeah , of course . And he's like I really don't think you want to be an investment banker . You have two passions in life . In talking to you , one is your farm and the other is politics . And he said that's a good thing .
He says , and I really think you ought to pursue your passions and do the farm or the politics , or both , or one or the other , or find a way to do both . He kind of gave me a couple of different options . He says , because that's what you're passionate about .
And he says , let me just tell you , if you do your passion , the rest will take care of itself , the money will come . And he says but you know , hey , if you want this job , you know , you think about it and you call me here's my cell phone number , you take your time , take a couple of days , which is crazy . I mean this day , I don't know .
And so I did . And he , I called him a few days later and at this point the White House called , they had the job ready and Goldman made me an offer in in New York , which I did not want to live in New York , there was no reason why .
But I and then Arnold's campaign had reached out to me , governor Schwarzenegger , and so I looked you know , going to work and run Southern California for them on the reelection campaign and I really wanted to get back to the West and it was an interesting opportunity .
And , like I said , it all happened at once , like the White House thing that I'd been waiting for comes and Goldman comes , and Herb Allen offered me an Allen Co . But then I made a decision . The right thing to do is to go back and work for Arnold on the reelection campaign . And I called Herb Allen and he said you're doing the right thing .
He said keep my number . If you ever change your mind , call me , which I never did or ever have . Which was dumb of me . I should have kept in better touch with that guy . But he says but you're doing the right thing . And he said the same thing to me again . He said follow your passion . You're going to be good at anything you want to do .
It's a great lesson . And it was a great lesson , and what I'll tell you about that lesson is not just what he said , because that applies to a lot of people with passions and talents is that the fact that he took the time for me , and he told me this in the interview .
He said look , mark Andreessen got you in the door , but you got yourself the job , and but again , the fact he took that time , I just appreciated that . I mean , he didn't need to do that . He did not . He didn't need only he needed to do was take the interview for 15 minutes and send me on my way , and Mark Andreessen would have been fine with that .
But he took the time to spend time with me , give me good advice , and he just didn't need to do that . And I think that's a sign of that's a sign of very good , successful people that do that kind of thing . They pass it on , they take the time and they and they help the guys coming behind them .
Um , and I , you know , and it was the best advice he ever gave me and I've thought about it often and at this point in my life I've been fortunate enough to where I've been able to live . Essentially what Herb Allen told me .
That's an incredible story , by the way . Yeah , I'm grateful I've heard parts of that too , but I mean that's like .
Yeah , I'm grateful , and that's from there . Just to finish your thinking . I mean , I did the Arnold campaign in 06 , there was a reelection campaign .
A bunch of Bush people kind of came in and took over and helped him get reelected and that was super interesting and again , I was not hanging out with Arnold , I mean you've got to at least tell a little bit about it .
I mean , you work Arnold Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial reelection .
Yeah , I mean I'm not going to lie . I mean at this point in my career I was not like the top dog , like hanging out with Arnold , but I got to interact and he was great , nice guy .
Yeah , he was great and for me he was right for California , I mean he was the right kind of person , because that electorate's just way different I mean it's not Idaho and so you got to have like what was the best option at the time . I think Governor Schwarzenegger was and I think he proved out he was . I think he did some really good things .
He kind of got a little bit off the rails where I think he tried to do some really good things .
And then I think he got a little bit back into movie star mode , where he um got kind of chasing the little bit and then decided he was going to go do what the box office told him to do , which is what movie stars do , um , and but I can't be overly critical because again , I think he he did a good job and you have to realize that that's just a tough
, you know , even back then in the mid-2000s , late 2000s .
I mean , you had this magical time where you had , like , jesse Ventura as the governor of Minnesota and you had Arnold down there and you're like what's going on ? And now you compare it to today and it actually sounds incredibly sane .
Yeah absolutely , you're absolutely right . I mean , yeah , that was nothing and totally changed compared to what we see today . I mean , today is a conversation we'll get to . So you did MAG too , did MAG , or yeah , so I did
¶ Politics, Policy, and Compromise
. That's where I first met Mitt . He was traveling through , thinking about running for president at the time , connected up with them . I had been watching him since he'd become governor in Massachusetts and I knew that if he ever ran for president it might be something I'd want to do .
So then , after Arnold , I went to Mitt and I ran the Western states for him when he first ran unsuccessfully for the nomination . But it was a great learning experience and we won a ton of states in the West and that was just a great experience .
And then Mitt had hired Meg Whitman , her first job out of college at Bain and Company , and so when she was thinking about running for governor of California , mitt reached out to me and said , hey , Meg's thinking about running , would you help her ? And I was her political director .
I was one of the senior staff , wasn't the top person , I mean , jeff Randall , our senior advisor , was the head guy , but I was one of the top players in that campaign and that was a great experience of the top players in that campaign . And that was a great experience . She was . I like business people , as you know . That's why I loved .
You know , I love , I like business people with practical experience , real world experience . I like people that don't need to be in office . Mitt and Meg were both been very successful in business . In fact , my dad told us funny stories . And another thing my dad told me he's like Mitt Romney , meg Whitman . Hey , can I ask you a question ?
What do they have in common ? And I'm like I don't know , dad , but I'm sure you're going to tell me he's like they both made a lot of money and then they went into politics . What are you doing ? And I said well , you're a freaking broke farmer from Oakley , idaho , so what are you talking about ?
He's like well , I thought I would skip generation and maybe someone the money-making part of the family , but Meg was great and she was super smart and she was trying to do a very hard thing , which we knew .
And that's another thing my dad also told me after we lost with Mitt in 2012 , because he asked me , going into both Meg and Mitt , hey , what's the chances of them winning ?
And I told him , both of them maybe 20% , because winning as a Republican , even back then , that was the last chance I think a Republican has , other than maybe a movie star again who could win in California , because the numbers are the numbers , because Gavin Newsom's been so awesome yeah , I know . Yeah , they're really smart there .
That's why they're all moving to Idaho . But what I told my dad , I was like , hey , you know , there's 20 percent chance that Mick could be president in 12 . And he told me the same thing . I really remember it . He was totally right . He's like hey , if you told me I had a 20% chance to win a billion dollars , I think I'd take it . And he was right .
And that's essentially what it is winning president . There's only been 40 , what is there now ? Five of them .
Tell us a little bit about Mitt , because I know you got pretty close to the family and Josh and just met the man and it's a long time working for that guy .
I did so . First of all , I mean the top-notch family , and if there's nothing else you know about Mitt Romney , it's that you can see , I think , in his family what it's all about Like . He's an amazing husband , amazing father . The love between him and his wife is real sincere father . The love between him and his wife is real sincere .
There's nothing more important in Mitt's life than his wife and his family . And that's true and he's the real deal . He's a real deal from a character standpoint .
You can have all the thoughts on his political views or his political abilities , and I get that , but there is nobody that can question his character as a person , and that's the part I think that does bug me when I hear some criticisms .
I'm fine if people want to criticize his political choices or his political decisions or whatever , but it's just flat out wrong . I know him personally . He's one of the best men you're ever going to meet . He does what he thinks is right , even if I don't agree with that , and I don't always agree with men .
That's one of the problems we have in politics and in everything in life is there was no more . There was no person in my life that I admired and respected more than my father , but I didn't agree with him all the freaking time . Okay , I mean 80 , 85 , the old reagan saying it's pretty damn good . Yeah , I mean , when did it become ?
We have to agree with somebody all the time ? That's just not healthy . Yeah , it's not's not healthy and it's not right , and that's what I would say is that . And so Mitt is a good man and his priorities were right . They still are .
He does what he thinks is right and there's some things I don't agree with he's done recently politically and some that I do , but you cannot question him and his family , and they treated me extremely well and he was eminently qualified .
Like everyone can say whatever they want , but if you were to want him in president , the world would look a lot differently and it looked a lot differently in a good way .
I've told you this before , but I save . I had a copy of his first 100-day document .
Yeah .
Honestly , I think you can find it online , but if you go back and read that which I have , it's unbelievable , yeah , and you think about just the other thing .
That's not popular in our world today is policy .
Yeah , I mean . No , no , no one talks about policy . And you have these policy wonks like a , like a Paul Ryan that spend their whole life saying , hey , here are the fundamental ways to change America , whether you're talking entitlements or healthcare or the border or whatever it is .
Yeah , there are facts and policies that will improve the country for generations to come that a lot of people on both sides of the aisle spend a lot of time saying what is the best policy ? We don't talk about policy anymore .
No , it's soundbites ? No , it's soundbites . I mean my observations right now politically have I think you and I've talked about this before , but I actually spoke .
The Idaho Kettleman Association asked me to come up and talk to them for a little bit and just about the you know , elections and what's going on politically nationally and it was very fun and and they're great , great people and and one of the things I talked to them about was what I've talked to you about privately , which is again going back to this thing of
when is it that we got in a situation where you have to agree with 100% of the time or you're the enemy in life ? And I'm fascinated right now about the disconnect that people apply to their politics between their real lives and what I mean by that is , in your real lives .
In family relationships , marriages , friendships , business deals , nobody gets 100% of what they want . You find a compromise , you find a happy medium , everyone gets a win-win , or no one's going to have a long-term relationship with that person . So how is it possible to apply a mentality of we get a hundred percent what we want in your products ?
Think about every single contract or negotiation LOI , purchase and sell agreement , lease 100% of them are hey , we got to find a way to make this work for both of us and we got to find a middle ground . We've got to find a way to make this work for both of us and we've got to find a middle ground . We've got to find a way to work .
It's got to be a win-win for both of us . It is the rest of life . It's how it's the craziest thing about politics right now .
And people are not doing that and I get the counter . The counter will be well , it's so important morally . You know . Crisis like when everything's a crisis , nothing becomes a crisis . And the problem we have in politics now is everything , the world , everything , hair on fire , everything's a crisis . Everything is not a crisis .
Yes , there are some very moral differences between the party . That's why I'm a republican . I don't agree with some of the strongly disagree with policies and morality issues that I believe in , why I'm a republican .
But there's a lot of other areas of policy that are just simply on the margins of tax reform , housing reform , whatever it might be where reasonable minds have to come together . And here's why this is happening . In my view , people are applying to their politics two prisms that are really dangerous . One they now think politics is a game .
It's like we're rooting for the broncos , and when you root for boise state , the broncos , the football team , I'm the worst , like I mean I , you know it's . If they don't do well , it's because the referees are screwing us , or the other side's done something nasty , or they deflated the balls like tom brady allegedly did , or whatever .
But whatever it is , there's this irrational ability to root and and you know what . That's fine . We root for our team . Our team can do no wrong . The other team is wicked and war and bad . That's fine when you're watching a football game and when you're watching a sport . It's not fine when you try to apply it to your politics .
The second element that's dangerous is the entertainment piece of it , which is they think they're watching a reality TV show . And we all admit this . We don't want to watch the car crash , but we all kind of want to watch the car crash . We all understand that . But hey guys , politics is not entertainment and it is not a sport .
It is a very serious business and , yes , there are some people who are not good on both sides that are trying to do very bad things , but there also are a lot of good people trying to do good things , who disagree , and we say to ourselves okay , what makes us ?
We got all the rights in the world because we see the world this way , when other people see the world a different way , we got to make this work . That's always been the ethos of America is that people have been able to make it work , and that's the danger I think we're in right now .
That frustrates me , and I think it's because those things and I think what's happening , unfortunately , is that we're blessed with great blessings that also become great challenges , and one of them is the information that we have now . It's really hard to get the right information .
So now we have all this information and Paul Ryan talked to me about this a long time ago and he was totally right , I mean which is now we live in a world where you and I can go find whatever information we want to reinforce our worldview . If we're conservative , we go look at Fox News .
If we're liberal , we go look at MSNBC or whatever and now people are going and looking for whatever worldview their worldview . Is that reinforces our worldview , whether it's all ?
accurate or not , and the algorithms are set up to feed even more . Yeah , I mean , there's nothing . Nothing highlights it more on both sides in my mind recently than the assassination attempt on President Trump .
Yeah .
I mean , you get on Twitter those days after and I think we all were just like okay , what's next , what next , what next ? Yeah , and there were were wild conspiracy theories on both sides . Yes , yeah , and it's and they were .
And then you can just see how these rabbit holes start and people and people , and people your point of watching the car wreck and liking it you're like , oh my gosh , is that true , or is this true ?
and it's the american idolization of politics and and that's the danger that worries me a lot .
You know , I had a good friend of mine reach out to me and I think you know him pretty well too and he , he was a good , he's a good guy and he's just like he's super successful good guy and he's just like he's super successful real estate guy and he's just like he's like Todd , how do you figure out , like what's true , like I'm reading all this stuff
and what's really accurate ?
And I'm like you know , I don't I don't know how to answer that question , cause I'm in the business and I have to sort through a lot of read between the lines and really understand , and even I can get get hoodwinked and confused and bought into stuff and before you know it and again , it's a great blessing I mean , social media and those sorts of things have
done a lot of good things , but the flip side of them have done a lot of bad things and it's and it's definitely exasperated a problem we have what advice would you ?
because
¶ Navigating Truth and Political Engagement
you do ? I mean as far as I mean I call you all the time because I do think that there are people that understand the world . I mean you've grown up in this world . I mean you've call you all the time because I do think that there are people that understand the world . I mean you've grown up in this world .
I mean you've been in those rooms , you've been around . I mean you've spent your life around the country as part of campaigns . You understand political machines , yeah , and I call you oftentimes and say , hey , what do you think ? Right ?
And then you do whatever you want . I just want to get that note in there for this group .
Sometimes he will listen to me , but that's what I like about this relationship because you and I are friends and you can do whatever you want . I listen to you most of the time , half of the time , but where would you advise people to find truth in today's world ? I mean , that's a , that's a deep question .
I don't know that there's an answer , but you , you , you know , like listen , I've got a lot of family members that are close to me and they'll ask me . They'll say , hey , did you see this ? And I'm like going , that's not true . Well , I think that there's some things that are obviously not true , but there's a bunch of stuff in the middle .
Yeah , You're like there's elements of truth . Yeah sure there's pieces that are true or some things that are true that blow you away , that are like whoa , that was true . I didn't think that would be true , so I'm not judgmental on that . I don't know the answer . I'll tell you how I kind of approach it .
Number one you've got to take a deep breath and you can't just jump to conclusions right away .
You've kind of got to let , in this day and age , you got to let some things play out and make sure you've got all the facts before and try to look at some different sources and not be afraid to look at sources that you don't agree with , so that you can sift through and read between the lines , because you got to be more discerning .
It's just not going to be that you can say this is the source and this is the truth , Even on the stuff that I like and read Fox and stuff . I love that stuff but I have to basically say , okay , tap the brakes . I got to take a thought here . And then , secondly , obviously I don't want to get religious , but I do think that there's a piece of this .
You have to use some of your own faith and discerning . But you have to be really careful with that because some people are trying to .
Don't people also prey on that a little bit ?
Oh , they absolutely , and we're seeing a lot of that .
We're seeing a lot of that and unfortunately , there are a lot of really good people that are taking advantage of that in the wrong way , and that's a sad thing for me to see of people you know , really good people of faith that are well-meaning , well-intentioned , and politicians who are using faith , and it's the sheeps and wolves clothing type stuff that can get
depressing .
Or the wolves and sheep clothing , doesn't it kind of get depressing ?
Well , it does .
But I think the other thing I would say is and I've told you this , you and I have talked about this before and I've talked to multiple friends , I've been you this , you and I have talked about this before and I've talked to multiple friends I've been a little bit disappointed and frustrating , very disappointed and frustrating about the tone and tenor .
But the reality is a couple things . One you know and I first heard this from one of the leaders of our church it's not attributed to him , he was quoting somebody else and I can't remember who that's from .
But you know , the only way bad people win is when good people do nothing , and I've said this to multiple people If good people pull back now , it's going to get worse , and so some of this is then make sure it doesn't get worse so that it can get better .
I think the other piece of this and since I know that's not super inspiring is , I also do think going back to facts and information is people need to go back and look at history . I mean , we've been through some rough ups and downs in this country and the long arc of our history . Everyone's like , oh , that's never happened and that's not .
Some of this stuff has happened before and we've seen tumult and upheaval and change and challenges .
And again , I'm still confident that a majority of the people in this country a super majority , in fact are good people who want good things and want what we all want , which is a good life for our families , and want our kids to be safe , and want our wives to be safe and want just to be able to live the American dream and be free .
And I still believe that that's a majority , of a bigger majority of this country . And one of the things we need more of is better people to run for office .
I say that having also being the one that , when I sit down with people and they ask me they're thinking about run for office , they leave the conversation with like well , man , you sound like you don't want to run . I'm like no , I just want you to have the full disclosure . You know that as well , because we had that conversation .
But my point is like I still believe we need good people to step up and run , be involved , be involved in politics . If we don't , we're going to get what we pay for , and that , I believe , is still a key , and that's why I believe it's like every , every time I think about oh , I got to pull back . It's like you got to stay in the fight .
You got to use your skills , your abilities to help to make a difference . Try to fight good fights . And in Idaho , look , we still got a lot of great things going on here and we have great elected officials and we got a great governor and we got a great you know , statewide elected officials . We had a great federal delegation .
Yes , we have some TOLMO a little bit , I think , in the legislature I don't want to get into all that but we also have some great ones that are doing great work . And , by the way , like it's okay , everyone wants to whine about all these things , but , okay , let's look at Idaho . Like , what are we really complaining about ?
We're complaining , in my view , on the margins and also about future things that we've got to deal with in this state for the future , absolutely . But when you think about where we're at , and then where we're at compared to the rest of the country , I mean I love where we're at and so we've got to be happy with what we got . And how did we get there ?
A lot of local good folks who've run and good people that have been involved , that have supported them
¶ Presidential Race Predictions and Analysis
and helped them .
I'm not going to hold you to this . I wasn't going to ask you this , Dave . I'm going to just because it'll be fun Any predictions on what's going to happen in the presidential race ? I mean , if I would ask this two weeks ago , you wouldn't have said what happened .
Do you think anyone challenges Kamala Harris to take that nomination at their convention , or do you think that's over ?
I think that's over . I think Harris has . It's been surprising to me how quickly , but also shows you the desperation of the Democrats that they they've just , they've just made the calculation . So then that's probably it . Yep , they've made the calculation .
Who does she choose as her VP , cause that's got to come quickly .
Yeah , good question . I mean there's a good group of not good group , I wouldn't say , but there's a . There's a non long list of . From my vantage point there's not a good group . Because I'm not a Kamala Harris fan . I know her from my California days and I think she's worse than Biden , by the way .
I can't wait to talk to you because we haven't talked , but I will never forget it's got to be 15 , no , 10 years ago when her name first came up in a conversation . And you have stories .
I have a lot of stories which I won't but they're not public , but I've been surprised . I think it really shows you the fear and desperation of the Democrat Party and how bad it was with where they were at with Biden . It's their own fault . They should have known better . They should never have let themselves because they knew . They knew .
Look , this is where the Republicans have been right and others have been right . It's just you is where the Republicans have been right and others have been right .
It's just the president should have .
It's hard to deny it at this point .
Oh yeah , he should have . I've been saying this , for I mean it's been public for .
And he's really put them in a bind , because I really do think Kamala is a tough , but I also think she . I just would tell you now the race goes back to more of a . I still think Trump has a slight advantage , but I do think Kamala does a lot of things .
She fixes a lot of problems that Biden had very quickly and she flips the script and the narrative and could change some of the states that are in play , and what I mean by that is immediately .
She fixes problems with African-Americans , with Latinos , with young voters , like there's no way a Democrat can become president of the United States without that constituency . Fired up for their candidate Makes sense , and they were demoralized with Biden . She's at least to start . We'll see how this plays out over the next few weeks , a couple months .
Maybe it doesn't maintain , maybe she runs into problems . I mean , they got challenges on immigration , they got challenges with the war in Israel or not Israel , but in Gaza .
So they don't even fake the Israel thing . No , I mean , with him coming here right now , they don't even it's like openly anti-Israel right .
Well , and that's why . But it flips politically . Policy this is where you go back to your whole conversation . Like the policy conversation is a different conversation . She scares the daylights out of me on policy . I think she's way worse than Joe Biden . She's going to pursue progressive policies . She scares the daylights out of me .
I'm just going to tell you that . Right , and she's not any more comp .
I mean , I take Joe Biden half lucid once in a while over Kamala Harris fully lucid because I'm worried about what she's going to do and that's just fact , but politically she's much more potent and it's going to be interesting now to see because it's a whole different ballgame that the Trump campaign , I think , has done a really great job in the way they've
executed , and even Trump has been more disciplined than I've ever seen him .
You told me early in this cycle , though he's got a team this time . That's better than last time , Absolutely yep . And he's got a group of consultants that know what they're doing and he wants .
You can tell he wants to win because he's listened a lot more . Now he's going to still do his thing and go off script and do whatever , and that's just part of who Trump is Really . Yeah , big shock . Yeah , news flash . I'm making news history here with that deal , but what I think they've done is they've done a really good job of one .
I have to give President Trump credit . He's been much more disciplined than he has been in the past way more disciplined , in my view . His team , chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles and those guys have done a really good job and they were doing that .
But the problem they have now which I'm not saying they can't deal with , that's the question now is that was run against Joe Biden and now the script has flipped , at least for now . We'll see how long it lasts Because you know , again , now they've got to run against a woman , they've got to run against a young . There's a lot of things .
There's a lot of things taken out of play . But you know , kamala has to deal with a lot of baggage from Biden . I mean , immigration is a mess . It doesn't matter what anyone says there . You're seeing that across all polling . You're seeing it across all demos . There may be disagreement on what the solution is , but everyone thinks it's a mess .
She's going to have to own that . She's going to have to own challenges with the cost of living .
The inflation piece , which is definitely people in this country and the economy is actually if you looked at the numbers it doesn't seem like it's that bad and in some places it's been good , but the inflation piece has just really hurt and that really hurt Joe Biden quite a bit and just the fact he couldn't campaign and they should have known better .
I mean , honestly , that's really what the Democrats they I mean you've been around this year , I mean for two decades . Were you surprised how they were running that issue and and I mean what was their end game ? And and I mean it's surprising to me that they were , that they took so long .
I think it's a good example and I think you've seen this not just in politics but in business and other people when they get in a bunker mentality , yeah , and they don't listen , yeah , and then they just kind of make up their mind that we're going to make this work and they , they thought they're running the same campaign the last time .
Last time they had covet , they didn't have to travel him anywhere , they didn't have to do any stuff and he was probably a lot better four years ago mental acuity wise . But I also think they just didn't want to give up the ghost , and I also think it's a sign of how much they , how , how little they think of Kamala Harris .
I mean , they didn't really , they really screwed
¶ Political Strategy and Election Analysis
up . I mean , again , they made it , in my view , a diversity pick for their vice president instead of somebody who could be president United States to replace him . And they , they shouldn't have done that because and again , in all fairness , they probably only picked her , thought she'd grow into it and that she could be ready for it .
But anyway , no one knows or knows , that's not true . And so then they became scared that they didn't really have a good option , and then they thought they could just fake it and get away with it . And again , I think it's a bunker mentality , I think it's hubris and I think it's arrogance , and I think they thought regardless of party .
But I think that's what happened . And I also think , honestly , some of them were afraid from Biden and his family to tell him the truth , and that's my big thing . That I think is ridiculous in what you do is , I think my view of the world is you need to you know this . I mean , even people don't like it . You got to tell them the truth .
You got to tell them the hard truth and it may cost you your job , and that's okay . I mean , you got to sleep with yourself at night and it may cost you business , but who cares ?
But they didn't do any of that and they've left themselves in a tough spot to where they have no choice now but to go with Harris , because everyone's was like , oh , they'll do all this other stuff . And I'm like how do you ? How do ?
you do that ? How do you pull that off ? And so , hey , there was a couple more things that just random thoughts has gone by really fast . But yeah , sorry , um the , the convention , the Republican convention . I mean the enthusiasm , I mean you , no matter who you talk to or people that were there , or I mean it seems real that enthusiasm .
And I know a lot of elections , whether it be the Senate races , the congressional races . I know you've worked a lot on the Senate races , yep , I mean there's still a long time before the election , but the Republican side of the aisle has got to be feeling pretty good about the enthusiasm after that convention .
Yeah , I mean I think , going in , obviously all of Trump's legal problems have kind of he's been like just on a roll even before um , you know the tragedy , you know of the , the assassination attempt , which again obviously was super terrible and horrible and just absolutely wrong . But from a pure political standpoint it was gold for him .
And again I know he and no one else would like to try to get political gold that way , because it was just terrible . But even before the assassination attempt everything was going his way .
And again that's a prime example , I would say , of why they're disciplined when Biden's just been , you know , after the debate , biden's been just terrible and Trump has been smart , he stayed . He just stayed out of the equation . Just let it be about Biden Super disciplined , not something he would do previously . Another good example .
And so I think momentum is high . I think the assassination attempt obviously cemented that , but I think it was high before that .
I think you have to be really careful about making too many calculations about what will happen in the House and the Senate , because those are individual races and you have to really you know we don't have the time for that , but you have to go through each of them individually to really make sure that you can understand .
And look if Trump becomes even more strong and it looks like he's pulling away from Harris . Sometimes voters want to check , or vice versa . They want to check , they want a divided government . Every we have a good shot .
I think we have some pretty good candidates who are running good campaigns in the Senate , but they're also running against I mean in Montana particularly . But they're running against really good Democrat incumbents and beating an incumbent is hard to do . But Trump , you know it's set really nicely in the Senate .
I think the House is kind of up in the air right now . I wouldn't want to venture a guess there yet . I think it's going to be close either way . I think it's going to be close either way . I think it's going to be a four or five seat margin . But you know again , if Harris starts to stumble and steps on herself , then could this become a wave thing .
And yes , but with redistricting and everything , it's really difficult to see wave elections nowadays , as you used to see . A wave is like a swing of ten seats now or four . You know we won the Senate by two , so we'll see . I mean , but yes , if you're a Republican , you should be bullish because the incumbent's been so bad , so terrible .
All the issue sets are correct in terms of what voters care about the economy , inflation , immigration . The one wild card that will be challenging for Republicans is abortion . One wild card that will be challenging for Republicans is abortion Because , again , it doesn't really matter what's going on in Idaho or , you know , iowa right now .
The only thing that matters is Pennsylvania , wisconsin , Michigan and maybe now maybe Arizona , georgia and Nevada . That's where it's decided right , that's where it's decided . It's decided on the margins of just very low information voters who are not going to tune into this race until late , and so that's where the dynamic is going to be interesting .
I mean , I would rather be Trump than Harris , quite frankly , but I wouldn't want to venture a lot of money on it in terms of which way it will go , cause I think it's going to be . You got to remember this . It was extremely tight . Even with Biden at his floor and Trump kind of at his ceiling , it was still a two or three point race .
Um and so now and that was with the demoralized Democrat base Now their base is fired back up with the possibility of Harris . And so now you just I think it's going to come down to the margins . And I mean that's why I think you saw Trump pick Vance .
He's doubling down on the blue wall states , he's doubling down on that populist messaging , messaging trying to really kind of win . Blue dog Democrats turn out more , rural Republicans win . Those , you know , win on the margins there . It worked for him in 16 against Hillary .
And then you know , and then you're going to see Harris lean into progressive , you know , trying to fire up African-American voters , latinos , younger voters You're going to see and that's where the policy will always follow the politics Like that's what you're going to start seeing in terms of what they're going to promote in the next little bit .
It's going to be a little bit of money spent between now and then , isn't there , holy smokes ?
Yeah , and I've been been pulling . I mean , the amount of money that was unleashed , um , uh , after harris got in was was kind of interesting to me . That haven't said I mean again it's . You're now going to spend a gazillion dollars on a very like what we really should invest it in , if we were smart , was a tv station in montana because that senate race .
They're spending like 80 million dollars or something . I mean , think about , how do you buy $80 million of television in Montana ? I mean we should have bought a TV station and just and then sold it the minute the election was over . But you're a smart business guy and I'm not , so that's why I am my .
You know , I didn't think of that until it was too late , I think we could talk for like three hours . Yeah , we could , I mean for sure . Yeah , we could , I mean this is for sure , and so hopefully you got something interesting out of it .
I mean I do want to hit , so so your your company . Yes , riverwood Strategies yeah , so we do political consulting all around the country . Yeah , based here in Boise , idaho , riverwood Strategies dot com .
And you guys do races all over the place . Yeah , we're doing a lot more corporate work now . So we actually do corporate PR and a lot of issue advocacy work and I'd say now we're doing 80% of that and less political campaigns , although we'll do some like we just helped John Curtis in Utah .
He's going to replace Romney there and then we're doing work on the Senate races .
He's a great guy .
Great guy , great guy , and so me there and and we'll , and then we're doing work on . He's a great guy , great guy , great guy . So , um , and so we're doing some work in , and then we're doing work for the senate leadership fund in montana , so we're involved in in some political races .
I always will be in an idaho here , but I , you know the more that we've kind of shifted more uh to the , to the corporate world .
So , um , the one thing I did want to say to you , um , or not to you , but I wanted to get a quote in here from my father that I thought of a lot of times , and it goes back to your question about politics , but I apply it to life . My father used to sing on the farm all the time .
You've heard this one before , which was anyone can do it when they feel like it . The great ones do it when they don't feel like it . And that'd be my concluding thought on politics in general . I use that more than just like anything in life .
That I you know , but he always would say that was something I'll never forget , he told me , and it was something I used in my own life . He'd say that on the farm all the time .
You know , anyone can do it when they feel like it , but the great ones do it when they don't feel like it , and and that's what we need More people just do it when they don't feel like it . Even though it's a tough environment there's still a lot of I still am optimistic that we live in the greatest country . You've said this before . I've heard you .
We do live in the greatest country on the face of the earth and it's up to us to kind of preserve it and keep it that way .
Well , and one final thought for you . I've got a lot of people that I respect and love in life and you're right at the top of that list . We've , we're very close and I think I learned a lot watching you and your father's relationship . He , he's a legend .
Anyone who knew that guy and you know I was with you and very close to you when he passed away tragically and I'll never forget his funeral , Um funeral , and the legacy of a guy that just lived his life in a way that he made a difference in other people's lives . He'd be very proud of you . He'd be proud of you . I wish he could have saw old Riggs .
I know .
I will just return the compliment , tommy , I love your father . He reminds me so much of my dad and your relationship with your father reminds me that . And I will tell this final story that I gotta tell from the governor's campaign with you , and I'll never forget um , and it meant so much to me .
It was , um , we were , uh , it was , it was like I can't remember what it was , but it was everything's flying . It's all crazy , you know . And you sent me this really amazing text and at this time I was at , I was very low point .
I mean , we were shortly , it was after dad had died and we were dealing , you know , trying to figure all of his state stuff out , and it was a tough time . It was more tough on you than anyone .
I know that and that's why I tell the stories , because it was such a great tribute to you , which is that , um , I was feeling really down and and just out of the blue , and you hadn't , we hadn't
¶ Deep Friendship and Gratitude
talked about this at all . You sent me this really amazing text . You said , hey , and it was typical Tommy's 4 am in the morning and uh never sleeps . And um , he said and I don't remember all of it , but I remember pretty much the verbatim , what it was , though , and I kept the text .
I got a text and sent it to you , but , and he said hey , I woke up in the middle of the night . I had this dream , and in this dream I was sitting in the office with you and me and your dad , and I don't remember what we were talking about , but all I know is he's so proud of you .
And then you said you know , this is the toughest thing I've ever been through , and you know , you went through like things . And he said but I wouldn't want anyone else by my side , and and I'll I'm Tom .
I'll never forget that till the day I die , cause the first thing I thought to myself is here I am , I'm supposed to be one , you hang in there , it's going to be okay , because you're the one that was going through hell way more than me , but I'll just never forget that till the day I die .
It was one of those moments , and , by the way , I could tell many , many stories about you , I'd be in a trench with you in any battle .
Brother Likewise .
Well , I love you and I appreciate you Lifelong friend , I appreciate you .
It's also fun , as much as I miss you as my bachelor friend . It's really fun watching you be a dad to those kids and that's the most important thing and that's the thing . I'm grateful . That's the thing . Well , bill would love them all . I agree . Thanks , brother .
Well , thank you . Thanks for having me on . Thanks so much .