If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market. Eurodollar Univer...
Mar 09, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1029
Sign up for our free March 24 webinar right here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6 Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else? Eurodollar Unive...
Mar 07, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1028
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price...
Mar 05, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1027
Stocks are getting hit, with bond yields tumbling. The "growth scare" gets louder as the luxury car brand just confirmed it's heading for the worst, no longer willing to hold out for economic strength everyone talks about yet never happens. The forgot how to grow economy is firmly at risk of remembering traditional recession mechanics. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis WSJ Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slump https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/mercede...
Mar 04, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1026
Not a good week for financial markets. Oil down. Rates sunk. Stocks hit. Crypto crashing. Why? The "growth scare" is back. Or, at least, it's back in the mainstream. In reality, it never left and certain financial markets are being forced to reckon with this. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Atlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Mar 03, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1025
The new guy at the RBI said he wasn't going to interfere with the rupee as much as his predecessor. Apparently, the dollar has left him with little choice. It’s the fundamentals that matter. And even India is showing more signs of forgetting how to grow. That’s why the dollar has been on a rampage again and why RBI can't let it go. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India Central Bank’s Short Dollar Book Hit Record $77.5 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...
Mar 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1024
European banks are surging into safety, buying the third most on record in January. At the same time, they scaled back activities in the real economy expecting further deterioration. Their behavior also backs up market pricing especially interest rates, while also exposing the fallacy behind them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB BLS Q4 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.html https://www.eurodollar.uni...
Feb 28, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1023
Why now? After teasing a bank recapitalization plan as part of last year's "bazooka", the CCP did nothing about it over the five months since raising the matter. Total silence. Now, all of a sudden, news banks are going to get their equity after all. What changed? There are a few suspects, starting with growing turmoil in money markets alongside more problems with real estate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg China to Inject at Least $55 Billion of Fresh Capital Into ...
Feb 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1022
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Rates are down sharply, so much the broad yield curve re-inverted from one critical spot. Given the macro context with crashing consumer confidence and a steep loss of economic momentum, particularly in the services sector, that re-inversion along with a multi-month low in 2-year yields is telling us everything we...
Feb 26, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1021
Is there trouble brewing in the AI bubble? A report came out earlier today that Microsoft was scaling back its investments, one the company denied. Its substance, however, aligns with everything else that's going on, from Warren Buffett curiously choosing not to explain Berkshire's stock selling to the deteriorating conditions in South Korea. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Microsoft Dropped Some AI Data Center Leases, TD Cowen Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/art...
Feb 25, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1020
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty." Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre SPG PMI press release https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358 https://www....
Feb 24, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1019
A tinderbox waiting to explode? When spreads are this low, and complacency this high, that means everyone is on one side the market. Not because they want to be, they have to be. And they all believe that they'll be able to get to the exits even though everyone is searching for the same signals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Money Managers See Dangers in Credit’s Eerie Calm https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/credit-s-eerie-calm-has-some-money-manage...
Feb 23, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1018
WTF!? This really better be a stunt or a bad joke because if it's not then we're faced with more bad economics. This proposal is exactly the SH&% that is supposed to be ending. The government wouldn't be giving anyone "their" money back, just borrowing more to make it look like that would what happens. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Milton Friedman - Tyranny of the Status Quo - Part 1 - Beneficiaries w/ David Brooks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRXEk7su62w The Hill Adv...
Feb 21, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1017
The last central bank finally gives in to reality, joining the rate cutting cycle in one final blow to higher for longer. This brings RBA closer to its neighbor RBNZ even though, on the surface, the two seem far apart in every respect. For all this alleged differences, however, the dollar has drastically other ideas which is why dollar for dollar for dollar, they're all the same globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Australia’s central bank cuts rates for...
Feb 20, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1016
The poor economy brought down Germany's government. With the election looming on Sunday, attention turns to who will take over. The inconvenient truth, for the economy, is that it doesn't matter. The whole world needs to stop looking for answers from politicians who have NONE. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters German voters demand change as Europe's biggest economy stalls https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-voters-demand-change-europes-biggest-economy-stalls-2025...
Feb 19, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1015
Warren Buffett continues to sell stocks. But it's not just disposing of stocks, which ones. At the same time, even Wall Street is beginning to take note of the dangers over dramatic complacency in risk markets like junk credit along with stocks. With both marketplaces waiting for a recession each recognizes, they're being eroded by the one we already have. That could very well explain why the selling continued at Berkshire. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Fortune Buffett sold ...
Feb 18, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1014
From the outside, everything that could have gone wrong for bonds did. CPI. PPI. Auctions. Hawks. You name it. Despite all that, what bond yields did instead points to deeper fundamentals that are never talked about by mainstream sources - including the new Treasury Secretary. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1013
Amazon warned the start of 2025 was rough, and boy was it. Government data on consumer spending as well goods production came in exactly that way. And while extreme winter weather played a role in each one, it was clearly the opposite of what everyone says. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Amazon Says Profits Rose 88% but Cautions Growth May Slow https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/technology/amazon-earnings-profits.html CNN US retail spending plunged last month, falling for...
Feb 16, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1012
India has suffered a major currency drop, serious interbank liquidity problems, one of the largest central bank FX interventions in its history, a stock rout, and, for good measure, the third of three straight negative CPIs. And that's just the last four days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India Central Bank Punishes Rupee Speculators in Surprise Move https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-11/india-central-bank-intervenes-to-curb-speculative-rupee-bets Ret...
Feb 14, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1011
Shocker of a CPI report; or was it? The bigger shock came afterward when Chevron stunned with its massive shake-up. At the same time - and for the same reasons - the oil market is undergoing a dramatic change of its own. And these are far from inflationary. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS January CPI https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm CNBC Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as part of cost-cutting plan https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/chevron-will-slash-up-...
Feb 13, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1010
We're finding more and more evidence in 2025 that escaping the economy of the past few years won't be so easy and neat as many were hoping. The golden arches reported their worst sales estimates for American stores since the lockdowns. Those results fit with other retailers struggling mightily among other commercial segments, as data now suggests consumer fears over the labor market are compounding the downturn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC McDonald’s revenue disappoin...
Feb 12, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1009
Auto exports out of Mexico plunged in January. While bad news for the struggling Mexican economy, this is more evidence for the growing global backlash of which the car business is right in the middle of. Cars aren't a victim but now a cause for concern the world over - including the primary reason for the struggle to begin with. America. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg German Industrial Production Falls Most in Five Months on Cars https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
Feb 11, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1008
Mexico is now the latest to accelerate, upping its ante as the situation reaches a critical turning point. It's been coming for a long time, yet central bankers worldwide now have a convenient excuse to cover the deterioration. The same one American consumers are now fretting with confidence rolling over and going sharply lower. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 10, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1007
Complete mess. Payrolls revised massively lower. The govt discovers three million people and assumes two million were employed this whole time. More important than those, hours are shrinking to the point the average workweek is the lowest its been since MARCH 2020. Strong and resilient, as always. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BLS Employment Situation https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm BLS Adjustments to Household Survey Population Estimates in January 2025 http...
Feb 08, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1006
A major shift is underway now at the Bank of England. After being among the most cautious central banks it is being forced more to the dovish side. Even one of the most arch-hawks in all global central banking ditched her previous opposition to any rate cuts in order to urge a fifty-bps cut today! More reactions to the consequences from a world that forgot how to grow. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Feb 07, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1005
Bond yields have fallen sharply over the past two weeks, having now roundtripped the past two FOMC meetings, going all the way back to where they'd been before the "hawkish rate cut" in December. Latest data on the services economy go a long way to explaining why, with signs of one-offs and non-economic artificial factors more and more coming out of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg US Bond ‘Death Spiral’ Risk Brushed Aside by Foreign Funds https://www.bloomberg.co...
Feb 06, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1004
No one is hiring yet no one is firing. The latter doesn't mean employers aren't getting rid of workers, because they are. Lots of them. A hiring freeze is only the first part of cost-cutting in a weak economy. From consumer surveys to govt jobs estimates, the labor market is on everyone's mind right now, employers and employees. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Nissan offers buyouts as US production scales back https://www.automotivedive.com/news/nissan-buyouts-workforce-produc...
Feb 05, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1003
Opening round of the 2025 trade wars. Mexico and Canada in the crosshairs. Neither of them stood a chance. The pounding started even before the negotiations began. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NYT Here’s What to Know About Trump’s Tariffs https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/01/business/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html Truth Social, Trump Mexico Message https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113940711907400754 Bloomberg Car Prices Face $3,000 Increase as Automakers...
Feb 04, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1002
Gold has been soaring all of 2025 so far, reaching a new all-time high this past week as yet another major cyclical warning was triggered. Trade wars may account for some of the urgency, the real story is how in a world that's entirely artificial more in it desperately demand something real. It's getting easier to sort what's real from so much fakery. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg STMicro Eyes Workforce Cuts of Up to 3,000 in Chip Slump https://www.bloomberg.co...
Feb 03, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1001
Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023 kicked off a chain of events that has cascaded across money, banks, and the real economy. The world economy didn't forget how to grow, the banking crisis of early '23 proved to be the final inflection point. Central banks may have won the battle over banks, then lost the war where it truly mattered. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Feb 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1000
