Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved? Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.universit...
Oct 31, 2024•18 min•Ep. 922
Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails https://www.bloo...
Oct 29, 2024•19 min•Ep. 920
Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-...
Oct 28, 2024•19 min•Ep. 919
Gold continues to soar to record highs, but why? Most will say inflation though bullion is actually a terrible inflation hedge. The reason why many people believe this is the one time during the Great Inflation. Gold's run in the seventies was instead about what happened in the sixties long before the inflation. And it's the same thing - the other end of it - that we're seeing today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FRB Boston Bretton Woods Conference 1984 https://www.bostonfed...
Oct 27, 2024•18 min•Ep. 918
A lot of people are asking if the Fed now regrets cutting rates by 50 bps in September, or maybe cutting at all. Recent data make it seem as though the soft landing never went anywhere, plus what appears to be happening with market interest rates. In truth, every part of this Fed "regret" trend is wrong, starting with the view from the central bank itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Beige Books https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/bei...
Oct 25, 2024•18 min•Ep. 917
Another central bank moves up its rate cut plans, accelerating its rate reductions with a 50-bps cut. At the same time the IMF lowers growth projections and warns risks of more downside are rising. These two developments are related to the same thing. It's becoming clearer where this weakness is coming from and that's why the public sector is starting to become more aggressive. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of Canada October 2024 Monetary Policy Report https://www.banko...
Oct 24, 2024•18 min•Ep. 916
Huge thanks to Eric Basmajian and train-traveler Mike Green for answering member questions. Member/Subscriber Live Q&A recorded October 22, 2024.
Oct 23, 2024•56 min•Ep. 915
We are seeing the full effects of the debt crisis paradox. And it only seems like a "paradox" from hte perspective of conventional wisdom on the matter. Government debt is indeed bad for the economy, but not AT ALL in the way most people are led to believe or assume. This creates another paradox, one where that mainstream criticism does a lot to discredit all criticism thereby making even more debt likely. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Milton Friedman Newsweek February 1981 ...
Oct 22, 2024•20 min•Ep. 914
Does the Bank of Canada need to exist? Canada shares a lot more than just a common border with the US, interest rates, inflation, even changes in economic output. And those are all pointing in the wrong direction. The Canadian experience provides a perfect example of what globally synchronized really means in all its facets. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Oct 21, 2024•18 min•Ep. 913
This may end up being the final straw for what's left of the global economy. With more highly negative signals from copper, gold, oil and swaps, even bond spreads here, we're getting more impressions that the part rolling recession is now rolling right on into the full thing. If this one goes, that's usually it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Carmaker Misery Is Dragging Down Global Credit Market Returns https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-16/carmaker-mis...
Oct 20, 2024•18 min•Ep. 912
A whopping 98% of American voters in one mainstream poll say the economy is a major concern, including 79% who rate it their top worry. Economists, the media, politicians, policymakers are at a loss to explain this. The latest data from the US government shows why that is, both the confusion and the underlying trouble. A vast majority of the evidence continues to consistently agree with what Americans are saying. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NRF Census Retail Sales Data Sho...
Oct 18, 2024•18 min•Ep. 911
Wall Street was rocked by a huge plunge in orders for ASML, a company which produces machines that touch practically every part of the global economy. That was followed by another four-letter firm, LVMH, which reported a shock decline in revenue. Both showing the same thing from very different angles, further confirming - along with swap markets - why there will be another leg down in interest rates. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ASML Home https://www.asml.com/en ASML Q4 202...
Oct 17, 2024•20 min•Ep. 910
We are in the thick of bank earnings and quarterly reports. The one theme they keep coming back to is...losses. It's become such a problem even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon snapped during his last earnings call. The thing is, in spouting off he told the truth about all of it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Jamie Dimon Is Right. Forget the ‘Damn Number.’ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-14/jamie-dimon-is-right-analysts-need-to-look-beyond-their-models Bank o...
Oct 16, 2024•19 min•Ep. 909
Another update from top Chinese officials on the status of "stimulus" comes amidst a flurry of macro and banking data from the country. While many will claim the former cancels out the increasingly grim nature of the latter, the previous data still matters at the very least to describe the size of the hole China will have to climb out of. Assuming it is even making a reasonable attempt to. That last press gathering provided few assurances. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis China...
Oct 15, 2024•19 min•Ep. 908
A big jump in jobless claims actually muddies the picture for the labor market. Meanwhile, consumer prices that many in the mainstream are claiming as sticky...are. But not for the reasons stated. We're seeing "sticky" prices in the technical sense, and that's not good. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bloomberg Odd Lots Austan Goolsbee Explains the Fed’s Big Rate Cut https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-11/austan-goolsbee-explains-the-fed-s-big-rate-cut Atlanta ...
Oct 14, 2024•19 min•Ep. 907
The world’s major growth engine the past few years is showing more and worsening signs of finally cracking, including its currency hitting a record low just today. I’m not talking about the US, obviously, nor is it sickly China. India. If India has stumbled, too, as the rupee suggests, then there might be no escaping globally synchronized. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg India’s Industrial Output Declines For First Time in Two Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/art...
Oct 14, 2024•18 min•Ep. 906
There is a story brewing in repo. Fails have broken a long run trend and they did it in early August. Latest data from FRBNY says that's still the case. It fits with a bunch of other data as well as brings up the ongoing unwind in the real yen carry trade. Finally, behind all of it is US recession fears driving fails, collateral, Japan's withdrawal, and more. And you don't have to take my word for it; hear it (or read it) straight from a carry trader himself. Eurodollar University's Money & ...
Oct 11, 2024•32 min•Ep. 905
While everyone - especially in Chinese and China-related stocks - get caught up in last month's "stimulus" frenzy, the overlooked the only real news that came out of it. Very quietly, the country's top bank regulator just casually mentioned the government was gathering a trillion yuan to "recapitalize" China's biggest six banks. Yeah. Meanwhile, volatility has hit the previously insane equity surge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***Eurodollar University's Fall Sale*** Discou...
Oct 10, 2024•21 min•Ep. 904
Another recession warning and this one is related to brewing problems with unemployment. The September payroll report has put mainstream focus back on a soft- or no-landing scenario, but we've been there before not long ago. Meanwhile, apart from the unreliable payroll figure everything else continues to point to bigger trouble, including Americans who have stopped using their credit cards. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** Subscriptions and...
Oct 09, 2024•19 min•Ep. 903
US economic weakness continues to show up outside the country as much as inside (last payroll estimate notwithstanding). Japan's government leading indicator just tanked, lowest value since 2020 and pointing to growing trouble in Japan. Same from Mexico and even according to one by JP Morgan. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Ueda Hints at Dovishness After New Prime Minister Urges Caution https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/ueda-hints-at-dovishness-after...
Oct 08, 2024•18 min•Ep. 902
September's payroll estimate soared WAY above expectations. Is it a Fed miracle? This isn't the first time this has happened; in fact, each of the last two times the FOMC began cutting rates met eerily similar results. Steve and I talk about what those were and why, also why that means everything right now. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** Best subscription prices on the Deep Dive Analysis, Daily Briefing, and EDU membership. https://ww...
Oct 07, 2024•18 min•Ep. 901
The bond rally is now one year old and it finally got to the point where central banks - including the Fed - are getting out of the way. Now that the market got what it "wants", there's no stopping it, right? Not quite. Nothing ever goes in a straight line, starting with policy pivots. The market will always surprise you. ***EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY FALL SALE*** https://www.eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Oct 06, 2024•18 min•Ep. 900
There are several ways to know that the second phase for the global recession has started. While there is never a clear demarcation between any stages or just recession, for that matter, there are telltale signs and we are getting them bigtime. Summer keeps showing up as full of warnings, including one that explains everything from the economy to central bankers' increasingly panicking reaction to it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg ECB Can’t Ignore Headwinds to Econ...
Oct 04, 2024•20 min•Ep. 899
The Bank of Japan's very recent change of heart has apparently been strong enough to do the same for incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Sounding aggressively hawkish where it came to interest rates just last week after his surprise ascent, suddenly he's completely changed his tune. Why? The answer can be found in another record low for a highly critical US$ market. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Ueda Keeps Rate Hikes in Play, Talks Down BOJ’s Part in Meltdown h...
Oct 03, 2024•19 min•Ep. 898
Jay Powell again reiterated that he believes the economy is "on solid footing." The most recent data on the labor market shows he's either wrong or lying. There is no equivocating these latest estimates in which hiring has collapsed. As if that wasn't enough, it was backed up by other sources. All of it pointing to summertime being the time for recession. It's all about hiring, and that has all but disappeared. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Powell Says Fed Not in a...
Oct 02, 2024•19 min•Ep. 897
Car stocks got clobbered as the global auto industry is heading for a major fall. There was a flood of announcements from carmakers all over the world this weekend as carmakers are facing very difficult choices. The fallout from the growing reverse will be profound given how important a rising auto market had been up to now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Stellantis Updates 2024 Financial Guidance https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/09/30/2954870/0/en/Stellantis-U...
Oct 01, 2024•18 min•Ep. 896
Now that everyone is coming to grips with economic weakness, particularly where it comes to employment conditions, understanding the high potential for a lot more or worse, people are trying to figure out where it is coming from therefore what might be done to turn it all around. Did the Fed break the economy? Are employers worried about the next President? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU...
Sep 30, 2024•18 min•Ep. 895
Americans continue to say they're alarmed about job prospects. That's what consumer confidence is truly about, not consumer spending. Workers see and understand labor market shifts before they show up in the major data sources. The latest income data show there is every reason to believe what consumers are seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conference Board September 2024 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Sep-2024 FRBNY Consumer Confide...
Sep 29, 2024•18 min•Ep. 894
Not content to leave it with the PBOC's Oprah-fest of rate cutting, China's central authorities announced what's being called a massive stimulus push. The response has been near-euphoria in Chinese and other stocks, but the opposite in more crucial markets and places. All the more curious given how much other "stimulus" is being offered around the world, central bank rate cuts that are accelerating. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Commit...
Sep 27, 2024•19 min•Ep. 893
It's not just USTs. Rates are falling all over the world faster in shorter maturities than long. That means a global wave of un-inversions and bull steepening right as more and more central banks plan to accelerate their own rate cutting. All of it for the same reason. Globally synchronized. ***CHECK OUT EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY's FALL SALE*** https://www.eurodollar.university Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBB Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve https://www.n...
Sep 26, 2024•18 min•Ep. 892
