The Fed hiked rates, no surprise, even raised consumer price forecasts and the infamous dot plots. Markets, no surprise, did not buy it one bit. there continues to be way too much which reminds us of 2008, including the confused FOMC stance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC SEP Projections; June 24-25, 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080625SEPcompilation.pdf Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https:/...
Mar 23, 2023•20 min•Ep. 425
Yet another funding crisis indication comes to us in a report from Bloomberg. FHLB co-ops are issuing debt like we've never seen before in what can only mean major bank funding problems. The only time we ever see anything like this is crisis. And this one could even be worse than those before. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FHLB Financial Statements https://www.fhlb-of.com/ofweb_userWeb/pageBuilder/fhlbank-financial-data-36 Bberg: Key Lender to Regional Banks Raises $88.7 Bil...
Mar 22, 2023•20 min•Ep. 424
Another Sunday action by the Fed, this time less about regional US banks instead acknowledging major global (euro)dollar potential dysfunction. Some maybe a lot of that is coming from Switzerland. What the Fed and other central banks are up to and how Credit Suisse fits into the deflationary/inelasticity puzzle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Credit Suisse Financial Reports https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/quarterly-interim-reports.html Federal Reser...
Mar 21, 2023•21 min•Ep. 423
The deflationary outburst shook up the world and it is still spreading. Financial aftershocks are still being felt but the economic fallout hasn't even begun. Just how early on in the process are we and what happens from here? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Talk w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES You...
Mar 20, 2023•22 min•Ep. 422
Why would anyone want to buy a T-bill from the government which didn't return anything? A zero interest loan to the feds makes no sense when you can get far better at least from the Fed. Unless you consider collateral scarcity. In the context of everything going on - including emergency borrowing at 2008 levels - this continued scramble for collateral is simply consistent with how this isn't about SVB, Signature, or even First Republic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Quantita...
Mar 19, 2023•22 min•Ep. 421
The ECB hiked its interest rate benchmarks today by 50 bps. Markets everywhere basically ignored it. What happened over the past week has already left serious and lasting doubts if not persistent scars. What's priced to come next isn't more rate hikes...from anyone. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Monetary policy decisions https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.mp230316~aad5249f30.en.html Ben Bernanke; Inaugurating A New Blog https://www.brookings.edu/blog/b...
Mar 17, 2023•21 min•Ep. 420
The curve shape we've been waiting for - and dreading - has finally shown up. This "bad steepening" indicates a 2008-style scenario is unfolding right now. Not a 2008 repeat, but the same general (and generally awful) combination of deflationary money and weak economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bi...
Mar 16, 2023•23 min•Ep. 419
We need to review the lessons of Bear Stearns and not just because it is the 15th anniversary of that firm's final day as an independent. The parallels go way beyond a single bank failure like Silicon Valley Bank. Comparing the recent meltdown in curves to what happened back then in the context of those Bear lessons is instructive and unnerving. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Transcript March 10, 2008 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080310confca...
Mar 15, 2023•22 min•Ep. 418
Friday's bond/rates markets moves were almost indescribable. Somehow today's were even bigger. What is going on isn't just about SVB, though looking into SVB can help provide us with some clues. Either way, markets continued to hedge for the worst even after Fed, FDIC, and everything over the weekend which was supposed to calm everything down. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SVB March 8, 2023, SEC Form 8-K https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000719739/eede72d3-1cc6-45ee...
Mar 14, 2023•21 min•Ep. 417
The real markets (not stocks) have been warning about ugliness for months. Now even the public can see it though policymakers and authorities will continue to deny it. Will there be more? Is the whole thing over? What markets are saying about it. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7...
Mar 13, 2023•19 min•Ep. 416
The payroll report was supposed to be today's sole topic. Instead, it was completely overshadowed first by a global bond buying panic sparked in Asia then carrying over throughout the US trading day. Failure of Silicon Valley Bank isn't the only problem, rather a symptom of the very deflationary money curves have been warning about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Recession Is the Most Obvious Answer To All the Inversion https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/12/02/rec...
Mar 11, 2023•22 min•Ep. 415
If "inflation" has been such a killer, nowhere more so than for food, why wouldn't falling food prices be a welcome development? The answer is actually pretty easy to put together in a whole bunch of strong, persisting correlations which are warning you to be very careful. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https:...
Mar 10, 2023•19 min•Ep. 414
All that financial volatility last September and October may have been the point of no return. Immediately after, curves swung from alarming to crazy. Now we see the consequences spreading throughout the real economy, hitting Asia and China reopening hype the hardest. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20230307a.htm Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decisi...
Mar 09, 2023•20 min•Ep. 413
As the Great Inflation wore on into its second decade, even politicians in Congress knew it had something to do with failure at the Fed. Demanding answers, a series of reform laws were passed including the one which commands Jay Powell's presence today. Why all this happened is as important and relevant to today as anytime in between. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Meeting October 1978 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19781017meeting.pdf FOMC Meeti...
Mar 08, 2023•22 min•Ep. 412
China reopening hype has been driven mostly by the mainstream media in the West. Recent developments pushed it to another level even though the entire time it was as hollow as every other global recovery scenario the past decade-plus. The Chinese government just exposed the truth - how's that for upside-down! Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Interpreting China’s unambitious growth target https://www.economist.com/china/2023/03/05/interpreting-chinas-unambitious-growth-target Ch...
Mar 07, 2023•21 min•Ep. 411
More reliable than the unemployment rate. Greater accuracy compared to payrolls. Forget Janet Yellen's bluster and misinterpreting all those Chinese PMIs. There's a much simpler, more fun way to judge then deal with macroeconomic risks. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISO...
Mar 06, 2023•20 min•Ep. 410
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recession isn't possible with the unemployment rate so low and hiring so robust. What she won't tell you is how little those datapoints matter in any possible recession scenario, including one recession that is extraordinarily similar to what's going on right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net Rea...
Mar 05, 2023•20 min•Ep. 409
Between February and December, use of the Fed's primary credit soared to more than $10 billion. Who was using it and why? Several theories abound though none line up with all the monetary facts. Eurodollar University viewers won't be surprised with what does line up with those and the Fed's primary credit. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Recent Rise in Discount Window Borrowing https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/the-recent-rise-in-discount-window-borrowi...
Mar 03, 2023•21 min•Ep. 408
China's reopening isn't faltering, it's booming! Or is it? The Chinese government reported big PMI numbers for February, but what do these things actually mean? I'm not sure anyone knows because it is not what everyone says. Plus, bonus breakdown of the US PMI from ISM. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the February 2023 China Purchasing Managers Index http://w...
Mar 02, 2023•20 min•Ep. 407
More "hot" CPI data from Europe has renewed focus on rate hikes for what many are considering an unquenchably hot global economy. But a determined examination of the other side of the world in Asia shows why that's an enormously mistaken interpretation. Just ask these salty Texans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey; Comments https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2302#tab-comments China’s shipping containers pile up at overcrowded...
Mar 01, 2023•20 min•Ep. 406
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Feb 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 383
The ECB wants to leave no doubt about rate hikes and inflation risks. Markets have no doubt the ECB is serious about those, and even less doubt it is wrong to be so. More data shows why, and what it means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl:...
Feb 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 405
Something big is happening in oil. A crucial physical commodity which actually does intersect with the real economy and it is totally blowing up the soft landing/no landing economy. Yet, the stock market is all over...rate hikes? Sorting signal from more-than-usual noise. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: htt...
Feb 27, 2023•22 min•Ep. 404
Incomes are the key to the whole thing. While many keep claiming the economy is staying way too hot, this big miss shows you why it never once was and right now recession not inflation needs to be your biggest concern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/3...
Feb 26, 2023•20 min•Ep. 403
Global markets and curves are epically upset about something. What is it? A number of nasty macro scenarios are together the most obvious answer, hardly the only one. Nothing makes markets hedge faster and harder than a combination of serious global recession, more dollar shortage, each leading to political instability in a certain part of the world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.market...
Feb 24, 2023•21 min•Ep. 402
Renewed Fed hawkishness along with resurgent macro optimism ("no landing") all of it based on payrolls, the unemployment rate, even retail sales. History conclusively shows this isn't just a mistake, it is a massive one. Markets obviously concur. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISOD...
Feb 23, 2023•20 min•Ep. 401
Amidst renewed optimism, growing confidence the recession risks have all be surmounted, the one company who knows better and should be really booming is not. Walmart's earnings report was another warning which won't be heeded during this "no landing" phase of the cycle which picked up another one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Walmart Releases Q4 and FY23 Earnings https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2023/02/21/walmart-releases-q4-and-fy23-earnings Twitter: https://twitter...
Feb 22, 2023•18 min•Ep. 400
There was never a liquidity trap, just the lie about liquidity leaving us in 2023 facing the same destructive money trap. For ten years the Bank of Japan had done what Paul Krugman had urged from the late 90s, yet only a couple years into it even Krugman was left looking for a scapegoat. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Paul Krugman Thinking about the liquidity trap http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/trioshrt.html Paul Krugman Rethinking Japan https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.bl...
Feb 21, 2023•22 min•Ep. 399
We always hesitate to use 2008 comparisons because history never repeats exactly. While there won't be another Lehman Brothers and no one is plagued by subprime mortgages, there are serious dollar woes along with a growing number of eerie economic similarities which do justify taking a look. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations, featuring Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioSh...
Feb 20, 2023•21 min•Ep. 398
China reopening is said to be robust and inspiring, the stuff of soft landings even reignited "inflation." The evidence increasingly points instead to quite the opposite, including several key indications which unmistakably show China and global trade might be crashing if it hasn't already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMark...
Feb 19, 2023•21 min•Ep. 397
