Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said recession isn't possible with the unemployment rate so low and hiring so robust. What she won't tell you is how little those datapoints matter in any possible recession scenario, including one recession that is extraordinarily similar to what's going on right now. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net Rea...
Mar 05, 2023•20 min•Ep. 409
Between February and December, use of the Fed's primary credit soared to more than $10 billion. Who was using it and why? Several theories abound though none line up with all the monetary facts. Eurodollar University viewers won't be surprised with what does line up with those and the Fed's primary credit. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis The Recent Rise in Discount Window Borrowing https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/the-recent-rise-in-discount-window-borrowi...
Mar 03, 2023•21 min•Ep. 408
China's reopening isn't faltering, it's booming! Or is it? The Chinese government reported big PMI numbers for February, but what do these things actually mean? I'm not sure anyone knows because it is not what everyone says. Plus, bonus breakdown of the US PMI from ISM. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the February 2023 China Purchasing Managers Index http://w...
Mar 02, 2023•20 min•Ep. 407
More "hot" CPI data from Europe has renewed focus on rate hikes for what many are considering an unquenchably hot global economy. But a determined examination of the other side of the world in Asia shows why that's an enormously mistaken interpretation. Just ask these salty Texans. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey; Comments https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2302#tab-comments China’s shipping containers pile up at overcrowded...
Mar 01, 2023•20 min•Ep. 406
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Feb 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 383
The ECB wants to leave no doubt about rate hikes and inflation risks. Markets have no doubt the ECB is serious about those, and even less doubt it is wrong to be so. More data shows why, and what it means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl:...
Feb 28, 2023•20 min•Ep. 405
Something big is happening in oil. A crucial physical commodity which actually does intersect with the real economy and it is totally blowing up the soft landing/no landing economy. Yet, the stock market is all over...rate hikes? Sorting signal from more-than-usual noise. Eurodollar University's Conversation w/Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: htt...
Feb 27, 2023•22 min•Ep. 404
Incomes are the key to the whole thing. While many keep claiming the economy is staying way too hot, this big miss shows you why it never once was and right now recession not inflation needs to be your biggest concern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/3...
Feb 26, 2023•20 min•Ep. 403
Global markets and curves are epically upset about something. What is it? A number of nasty macro scenarios are together the most obvious answer, hardly the only one. Nothing makes markets hedge faster and harder than a combination of serious global recession, more dollar shortage, each leading to political instability in a certain part of the world. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.market...
Feb 24, 2023•21 min•Ep. 402
Renewed Fed hawkishness along with resurgent macro optimism ("no landing") all of it based on payrolls, the unemployment rate, even retail sales. History conclusively shows this isn't just a mistake, it is a massive one. Markets obviously concur. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISOD...
Feb 23, 2023•20 min•Ep. 401
Amidst renewed optimism, growing confidence the recession risks have all be surmounted, the one company who knows better and should be really booming is not. Walmart's earnings report was another warning which won't be heeded during this "no landing" phase of the cycle which picked up another one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Walmart Releases Q4 and FY23 Earnings https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2023/02/21/walmart-releases-q4-and-fy23-earnings Twitter: https://twitter...
Feb 22, 2023•18 min•Ep. 400
There was never a liquidity trap, just the lie about liquidity leaving us in 2023 facing the same destructive money trap. For ten years the Bank of Japan had done what Paul Krugman had urged from the late 90s, yet only a couple years into it even Krugman was left looking for a scapegoat. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Paul Krugman Thinking about the liquidity trap http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/trioshrt.html Paul Krugman Rethinking Japan https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.bl...
Feb 21, 2023•22 min•Ep. 399
We always hesitate to use 2008 comparisons because history never repeats exactly. While there won't be another Lehman Brothers and no one is plagued by subprime mortgages, there are serious dollar woes along with a growing number of eerie economic similarities which do justify taking a look. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations, featuring Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioSh...
Feb 20, 2023•21 min•Ep. 398
China reopening is said to be robust and inspiring, the stuff of soft landings even reignited "inflation." The evidence increasingly points instead to quite the opposite, including several key indications which unmistakably show China and global trade might be crashing if it hasn't already. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMark...
Feb 19, 2023•21 min•Ep. 397
What if the economy is the proverbial boiling frog? But rather than the temperature of the water in the pot increasing slowly all the time, it goes up and then just when the frog begins to notice, it falls back a little only to repeat the process several times before the boil. How would we know what the water temperature is and what it is really doing? We have tools. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university h...
Feb 17, 2023•20 min•Ep. 396
The unemployment rate since June has fallen a few tenths more than the already low number it started with. Payrolls have added millions in those seven months. So how could the CPI have gone from nightmare inflationary to outright disinflationary at the same time? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/3...
Feb 16, 2023•19 min•Ep. 395
The fatal flaw is deeply embedded, even within the language we use to describe CPIs. We are wrongly led to believe consumer prices reflect the economy, when in truth those over the past few years have been set by a litany of non-economics. Before examining the US CPI for January '23, we discuss the one case which establishes beyond any doubt this error. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.mar...
Feb 15, 2023•20 min•Ep. 394
China reopening, media rather than money blitz. Bank lending has been hyped though as usual the rest of the story - the important parts - get left out for the narrative. The reopening impulse just isn't there, and we can verify that it isn't just by doing the full money math. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: htt...
Feb 14, 2023•21 min•Ep. 393
If the dollar has lost 97% of its value, then why had the world prospered so much during that time when it did? The answer provides tremendous insight into several fallacies about the global currency arrangement, even a window into current age of so much "sudden" and "unexpected" geopolitical balloon-based instability. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation, featuring Steve Van Metre https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/02/10/in_this_silent_depression_lets_destroy_the_dollar_all_o...
Feb 13, 2023•21 min•Ep. 392
Interest rate Thunderdome. What appears to be the short end versus the long end, or the longer-term rates against the Fed, the continued surge in layoffs once again shows it is actually the Fed vs. the Fed. Two Jays enter, one Jay leaves. And we know which one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38t...
Feb 10, 2023•20 min•Ep. 391
Resurgent gasoline prices have some thinking about "transitory disinflation." That the improvement in consumer price pressures won't last because of the same supply factors which drove those in the first place. Supply is the wrong focus, however, as a number of indications point instead to radically weakening demand. Not just for gasoline. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro...
Feb 09, 2023•18 min•Ep. 390
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SLOOS https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202301.htm April 2008 FOMC Transcript https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20080430meeting.pdf Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https:/...
Feb 08, 2023•19 min•Ep. 389
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Stock & Watson; Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? https://www.nber.org/papers/w9127 Bernanke; The Great Moderation https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040220/ Bernanke; Reflections on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20060320a.htm Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.Por...
Feb 07, 2023•21 min•Ep. 388
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Conversation, with Steve Van Metre Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Goo...
Feb 06, 2023•20 min•Ep. 387
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Feb 04, 2023•20 min•Ep. 386
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Dow, S&P break records; CNN https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/markets/markets_0500/ Fed explains the big rate cut; CNN https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/news/economy/fed_minutes_analysis/index.htm?postversion=2007100914 Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.l...
Feb 03, 2023•19 min•Ep. 385
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Feb 02, 2023•20 min•Ep. 384
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Jan 31, 2023•21 min•Ep. 382
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Jan 28, 2023•19 min•Ep. 381
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com https://www.PortfolioShield.net RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 THE EPISODES YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48...
Jan 27, 2023•20 min•Ep. 380
