Repurchase agreements are short-term collateralized loans made amongst banks. What happens when one party refuses to return the collateral? It's a "fail". They happen in swarms during unhealthy monetary conditions. They're happening now. -----SEE ALL EPISODES----- Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit...
Mar 08, 2022•23 min•Ep. 199
Russia has been told they're out of SWIFT! Kind of. And not right away. And only some Russian banks, kind of. Does it matter? What is SWIFT? ----HEAR ALL EPISODES----- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Reason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiH Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Castbox: https://bi...
Mar 07, 2022•27 min•Ep. 198
Former editor at the Financial Times (Alphaville!) has struck out on her own - why? Is it a commentary on the business press and/or mainstream media and what they refuse to cover? Izabella has lots of questions for Jeff too.
Mar 07, 2022•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 197
On February 24, 2021 Fedwire broke down for several hours - it was the the feather that broke the economic recovery camel's back. Copper, gold, silver, the yuan, Kiwi dollar, Treasuries, swap spreads, OATs - even bitcoin - all saw their trajectories change for the worse. ------EP. 196 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Fedwire broke for hours on February 24, 2021 and took recovery down with it. 01:18 Many headlines in February 2021 suggest economic recovery and a boom was ahead. 03:00 At 11:15 AM Fedwire...
Mar 03, 2022•20 min•Ep. 196
A look at interest rate swap spreads relative to nominal US Treasury yields identifies constrained bank balance sheet capacity. Monetary measures like swap spreads, Eurodollar futures, yield curve flattening are all indicating that the balance of risks is tilting away from recovery and reflation. ------EP. 195 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Interest rate swap spreads are a peek at bank balance sheet capacity. 01:43 Bank balance sheet capacity represents ledger money; the reserve currency, eurodollar....
Mar 02, 2022•16 min•Ep. 195
An insider's view of regulations, bond markets, bank reserves, central banks, quantitative easing, fancy wines, when it's inappropriate to drink cappuccinos, government-guaranteed bank loans and more! Alfonso "Macro Alf" Peccatiello of The Macro Compass joins Jeff Snider (and Emil). ------EP. 194 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Introducing Alfonso Peccatiello, @MacroAlf and The Macro Compass. 00:04:08 Equities can qualify as high quality liquid assets - if you do it correctly. 00:05:47 Regulations ...
Mar 01, 2022•46 min•Ep. 194
Mohamed El-Erian appeared on Hidden Forces, a great podcast by Demitri Kofinas. But instead of challenging consensus narratives or thinking critically about the power shaping our world El-Erian obfuscated and misdirected Kofinas and the audience about economics, the Fed and history. ------EP. 193 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Reviewing Mohamed El-Erian's appearance on Hidden Forces with Demitri Kofinas. 00:00:56 El-Erian claims the Federal Reserve has made a "policy mistake" in three phases. 00:0...
Feb 28, 2022•54 min•Ep. 193
Anne Stevenson-Yang has been living in, writing about and/or focusing her work on China for more than 35 years. We discuss: employment not being a bureaucrat's concern, the transition to uneconomic activity, disinterest in simple social improvements, the 20th National Party Congress, and more! ------EP. 191 TOPICS------ 00:00:00 INTRO: Anne Stevenson-Yang spent several decades living, working and thinking in China. 00:01:20 Anne introduces herself and J Capital Research, her China and equities f...
Feb 25, 2022•47 min•Ep. 192
Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this November 2021 episode of Blockworks' "On the Margin" with Mike Ippolito. Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski dive into debunking central banking myths, explaining the effects of the past on our current time, and more in this week’s episode of On the Margin. Jeff & Emil are hosts of Eurodollar University, a podcast dedicated to analyzing the 2007 ...
Feb 22, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 191
A collateral call in Belgium! Foreign officials are selling US Treasuries! American banks extending less credit to the rest of the world! Japan borrowing more! These, and other, *nerdy* insights for December 2021 from the Treasury International Capital System! Tell all your friends! ------EP. 190 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: TIC data for December was mixed, some positives, mostly negatives 00:55 Belgium reported a stunning one-month increase in holdings of US Treasuries. 09:11 Foreigners were buyin...
Feb 21, 2022•19 min•Ep. 190
Consumer inflation expectations peaked in October/November 2021, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Market based inflation expectations (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) also peaked then. What in the CPI is going on here? ------EP. 189 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Federal Reserve intends to raise short term interest rates because...??? 00:53 The Federal Reserve is not a central bank (it doesn't do money supply / demand). 03:07 The Fed wi...
Feb 20, 2022•27 min•Ep. 189
Caution! Ignore this market warning at your peril. The Eurodollar futures market inversion had deepened and broadened. Eurodollar yields inverted before, for example in 2000, 2005 and 2018. Turned out that Economic Hades was about 18 months away then. What about now? ------EP. 188 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Eurodollar futures curve has deepened AND broadened its inversion. 00:39 The Eurodollar yield curve is like the US Treasury yield curve but global. 02:38 The E$ curve had been getting flat...
Feb 19, 2022•24 min•Ep. 188
The US government bond market appears to be out of step with CPI, a booming economy and money printing by central banks - what gives? We review two Federal Reserve officials explain that QE is very, really, super powerful (and that's why the bond market signals are haywire). ------EP. 187 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Federal Reserve officials say QE is very effective. 01:18 The US Treasury yield curve have been flattening for many months now. 03:49 Bill Dudley wrote a column for Bloomberg on August...
Feb 13, 2022•24 min•Ep. 187
Journalists Kate Duguid and Eric Platt explain that US government bond markets believe the Federal Reserve will be able to tame inflation. Actually bond markets believe the Fed doesn't know what it's doing AND they believe consumer prices increases are not caused by the Fed. ------EP. 186 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: The Financial Times says the Federal Reserve will control inflation; Jeff reacts. 01:25 The Federal Reserve will use the labor market data to support rate hikes. 04:24 Are market based...
Feb 12, 2022•25 min•Ep. 186
China's 2021 trade surpluses were gigantic, so why isn't the yuan surging too? We review China's 2014-21 trade and currency experience from the perspective of the eurodollar, the international reserve currency that once intermediated trade but now intermediates capital. ------EP. 185 TOPICS------ 00:00 INTRO: Capital flows drive trade, not vice versa. A review of the Chinese trade surplus. 03:39 The eurodollar created itself to finance, intermediate trade; to solve Triffin's Paradox. 06:12 The e...
Feb 11, 2022•26 min•Ep. 185
After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet** https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/01/26/after-todays-fomc-yield-curve-is-already-as-flat-as-it-was-in-mar-18-without-a-single-rate-hike-yet/
Jan 31, 2022•18 min•Ep. 184
Oil prices are up and so you would expect that Treasury Inflation Protected Security breakevens (inflation expectations) are ALSO up... but they are not. Like Bitcoin, TIPS are ignoring oil and focusing on something bigger, something worse?
Jan 30, 2022•14 min•Ep. 183
Retail inventory grew at a tremendous pace month-over-month in December 2021 in America. Overall inventory growth was so strong that it contributed overwhelmingly to a strong (?) increase in US GDP for the Q4. But is this actually good news?
Jan 29, 2022•24 min•Ep. 182
The Eurodollar futures curve inverted in December 2021 - what has it done since? Also, how to interpret the US Treasury yield curve in "three easy steps!" Lastly, did the Fed cause the price of (Buffalo) (chicken) wings to rise?
Jan 25, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Ep. 181
PART 1: Inflation @ 7% but... PART 2: Bonds Losing Value - Worst in 2 Years! - but... PART 3: Year 15 of Mass Formation Psychosis (We Explain Why) None of the "Mass Formation Psychosis" interviews with Joe Rogan, Chris Martenson, Robert Malone or Mattias Desmet explained WHY and WHEN. In this episode we do: a 15-year (so far) worldwide economic depression, only the third in the past 150 years.
Jan 21, 2022•1 hr 13 min•Ep. 180
Alan Greenspan warned in 1996 we would not know if stocks were irrational because we could not know how much money was in the economy. Also, wages are rising - just like they did in the Great Depression? Lastly, the October 2021 Treasury International Capital update.
Jan 09, 2022•57 min•Ep. 179
PART 01: The Fed has to taper faster because consumer prices (i.e. motor fuel, automobiles) rose faster than it expected. It didn't have the moxie to stare down the CPI increase and explain why QE (i.e. 'money') had nothing to do with CPI. Maybe they're not really a central (money) bank. PART 02: The US consumer price index increased by 6.8% year-over-year for the month of November. Inflation, right? Undisputed, incontrovertible evidence of inflation! Step right up and watch the amazing Harry Ho...
Dec 20, 2021•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 178
PART 01: The Eurodollar futures curve inverted on December 1st - what's happened since? Also, does the American, German and Japanese sovereign bond market corroborate the Eurodollar futures warning? Lastly, does China's lowering of its bank Required Reserve Ratio buttress the E$ warning too? PART 02: US Job Openings are near record highs, suggesting a rip-roaring economy. But Hires are nowhere near the same heights, suggesting a lousy economy. On the other hand, quits are at record highs, sugges...
Dec 13, 2021•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 177
The inflationary process is in its early stages, and it will be particularly strong because it arises in part from a devaluation of the world’s reserve currency. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Joseph Wang , author of the 2021 book Central Banking 101, spent five years as the senior trader on the open markets desk at the Federal Reserve. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Alegro " by TAGE at Epidemic Sound. ----------WHAT---------- Mechanics ...
Dec 06, 2021•9 min•Ep. 176
PART 01: You've heard that when the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That is a warning too. A monetary red alert for the entire world economy. On December 1st the Eurodollar curve inverted. PART 02: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it's a recession warning for the United States. What about when the Eurodollar futures curve inverts? That's a warning too; a monetary Red Alert for the entir...
Dec 05, 2021•1 hr•Ep. 175
What does an expansionist monetary policy produce? Is it wise to lower the rate of interest so as to encourage economic activity? The classic text, by Ludwig von Mises. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- One of the most notable economists and social philosophers of the twentieth century, Ludwig von Mises , in the course of a long and highly productive life, developed an integrated, deductive science of economics based on the fundamental axiom that individual human beings act...
Dec 04, 2021•32 min•Ep. 174
Corporate QE amounts to a subsidy to large corporations, corporations that use the money to buy back shares and give big bonuses to executives. It would be far better for central banks to support small businesses and new ventures, particularly those pursuing solutions to climate change. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Frances Coppola , author of the 2019 book "The Case For People's Quantitative Easing", is a financial writer and blogger who appears regularly in Forbes and ...
Dec 03, 2021•16 min•Ep. 173
An uncomfortable truth: WWIII is not on the horizon, it is here. Militaries around the world are in a state of high-alert. “Sub-threshold" events are occurring with increasing frequency. War is digitizing. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Dr. Pippa Malmgren , author, economist, former White House advisor, entrepreneur and venture capitalist, is a well-recognized female voice in financial and geopolitical circles. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro ...
Dec 02, 2021•14 min•Ep. 172
Agricultural economists manipulated data to block Congress from acting on high beef prices and the destruction of independent cattle ranching. Why? Because they think monopolies are good. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Matt Stoller , author of the 2019 book " Goliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy ", is a fellow at the Open Markets Institute and advises policymakers on the problem of monopoly. He has lectured on competition policy around the world ...
Dec 01, 2021•32 min•Ep. 171
According to the FAO Food Price Index, the cost of food has surged in real terms to levels last seen in the 1970s - during the Great Inflation. But another data set, by the OECD shows no such surge at all. What's going on? Is there a food price crisis, or not? A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Adam Tooze , author of the 2021 book "Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy", a professor of history at Columbia University. His 2018 book "Crashed" was the winner of the Lione...
Nov 30, 2021•23 min•Ep. 170
