Britain just lost another prime minister. Keir Starmer, the man who came to power in 2024 with one of the biggest election victories in modern British history, resigned today after less than two years in office. But this is not just some Westminster drama. The real question today is this: Are President Trump and Republicans in Congress watching? Are they paying attention? Are they next? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 23, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1419
Swiss bond yields are almost back at zero. The key two-year instrument yields just a couple of basis points and is very likely going to be negative again relatively soon. As we know, Swiss interest rates have very little to do with Switzerland. As a global money center, this is where money goes when it doesn’t want to be anywhere else – even to the point international financials are willing to accept zero return to be there. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ----------------...
Jun 22, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1418
Something very strange is happening in global markets and in particular one key eurodollar signal that hardly anyone pays much attention to. Everywhere you look, investors are acting like the party is back on. U.S. stocks are surging. Tech stocks are ripping. Semiconductors are 1999-ing it right now. But then there is Hong Kong. Its main stock index, the Hang Seng is not joining the celebration. It’s going in the opposite direction and has for some time now. That’s big because HK is a major Asia...
Jun 21, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1417
Oil prices are down big. And if you only looked at the headline, the explanation seems obvious: Iran peace deal, supply normalization, geopolitical risk premium coming out. Except that is not what the market is really saying. Or should I say markets plural. There is a lot going on across various curves that shed a very different light on the crude plunge. Big changes in Treasuries, huge, huge shift in TIPS, more than you’d think, and of course oil prices themselves. Eurodollar University's Money...
Jun 19, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1416
Private credit is changing again. And this time, the story is not just that investors are still trying to pull money out. That is still happening, of course, with BlackRock the latest name too see a huge run. But now there is another problem. It is not only that current investors want out. It is that new investors aren’t coming in. That is a much bigger shift. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wha...
Jun 18, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1415
China just hit another record, though not the kind officials want to talk about. Not record growth. Not record confidence. Not record consumer spending. A record decline in household borrowing. Chinese households are not just borrowing less. They are pulling back at a pace we have not seen before in comparable data. And that is the real warning because this is exactly where China’s worsening downturn becomes much harder to explain away. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis --------...
Jun 17, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1414
Most people think they understand the dollar. When the dollar goes up, they think that means America is strong. Good economy. Good policy. Maybe the Federal Reserve is doing a good job and investors are “choosing America.” And when the dollar goes down, they think that must be bad. Inflation. Debasement. Money printing. The end of dollar dominance and the famous “dollar doom” story. But what if those are completely backwards? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------...
Jun 16, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1413
India is now being forced to ration diesel fuel for the first time maybe ever. At the same time, global stocks of crude oil are at their lowest since 2003. Even inventories here in the US have been drained to levels we haven’t witnessed in 20 years. In other words, as hopes for a peace deal with Iran rise, our attention must now turn to this critical next stage. While the conflict might subside, hopefully, this thing is far from over. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre ------...
Jun 15, 2026•24 min•Ep. 1412
The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB’s action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn around. And what can the markets tell us about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysi...
Jun 14, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1411
Gold and silver have been crushed this week and we need to not only explain why, just as important what this drop is telling us about more than precious metals. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning Point It isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. Let's fix that. ...
Jun 12, 2026•41 min•Ep. 1410
The Asian currency crisis is escalating and it’s forcing governments all over the region to get desperate. From India to Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, their situations are becoming a genuine threat to stability. When a country’s currency falls because of a dollar shortage, it is not just a foreign-exchange problem. It is not just a bad day on a currency chart. It can become a destabilizing feedback loop. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------...
Jun 11, 2026•23 min•Ep. 1409
What Is a Credit Cycle — and Where Are We in It? These are questions that keep coming up with everything that’s happening in…the credit market. Not just private credit and shadow banks, but thinking more broadly. Those are where all the downside signals are strongest and where all the excitement is right now. But credit cycles go beyond one sector’s garbage lending and cockroach production. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 10, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1408
Bond yields rose sharply on Friday, but why? What you’ll hear is that inflation and a strong economy will force the Fed to hike. But that’s only half true – the possibility of the rate hike. All the rest of it, not so much. Both markets and American consumers agree wholeheartedly on all of it. In fact, on Friday, inflation expectations in Treasuries dropped to their lowest levels since early March. Yeah, lowest since the start of the conflict and they were never high to begin with. Eurodollar Un...
Jun 09, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1407
We’re used to seeing this kind of thing out of the payroll reports, but I don’t think anyone really expected this. Red flags are up all over the May data, coming from all sides. Not the least of which is the context behind all the big problems in the numbers. When dollar stores complain that consumers are no longer able to buy food from dollar stores, you know everything is really out of whack. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre -----------------------------------------------...
Jun 08, 2026•22 min•Ep. 1406
Europe is preparing its public for something it has tried to avoid for years: a trade fight with China. While all eyes are on Iran and oil, the energy shock is only adding more urgency to a brewing economic battle between two of the world’s biggest markets. According to recent reports, the European Commission has already held closed-door discussions about the next steps against Beijing. The global trade wars are about to blow open. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -------------...
Jun 07, 2026•21 min•Ep. 1405
Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund just did something it had never done before. Investors tried to pull out about 10% of the fund’s shares. Blackstone finally and for the first time ever said, NO. The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund, known as B-CRED, told shareholders it would only allow 5% of shares to be redeemed. And this is where the story gets uncomfortable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------------...
Jun 05, 2026•20 min•Ep. 1404
