Big moves across the risk markets this week. Bitcoin and crypto hammered. Repo back on the menu. WTI full contango (briefly). Plus, top officials at the New York Fed soft confirming the start of the next not-QE QE. What does it all mean? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method. If you’re serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatili...
Nov 16, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1239
Flat Beveridge strikes again. You know the drill. We’ve been stuck in forgot how to grow and its no-hire/no-fire labor market the past few years. That began to change last year, especially last summer when no-hiring somehow got to be even less hiring. Then last year and this year, no-firing became some firing, in other words, shifting to the flat part of the Beveridge curve. But what we’ve been getting more recently looks to be an escalation in firing. Verizon just announced it may be cutting 15...
Nov 14, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1238
The collapse and bankruptcy of another private credit supported firm has generated significant losses this week. But as I pointed out last week with the shuttered UBS sponsored hedge funds, it isn’t necessarily the amount of money being burned. It’s what each of these cockroaches reveals, and how they add to the growing mistrust about the entire private credit shadow banking network. That’s the real danger which could threaten to unravel a whole lot more than a few troubled firms. Eurodollar Uni...
Nov 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1237
Fast food chain Wendy's said it’s closing hundreds more US locations than previously announced because customers can’t afford to eat there. It fits with what McDonalds US President said last week about how the entire industry is fighting for contracting traffic. It sounds practically Chinese talking about oversupply of cheap hamburgers and chicken nuggets. But as we know only too well from China’s economy, it isn’t too much production it is the lack of demand. Eurodollar University's Money &...
Nov 12, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1236
The federal government may be opening back up but the administration floating a tariff dividend is the real news here. It’s yet another dose of reality showing the stock market is not that reality. Americans are struggling and the timing behind this dividend is transparently in response to worsening economic conditions. After all, more Americans say they think unemployment is coming than at any time since 1980. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing on ...
Nov 11, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1235
CarMax sacked their CEO after preannouncing just brutal results for an industry already reeling and at the epicenter of the current ongoing breakdown in credit markets. The stock plunged 25% Thursday when management disclosed unit sales are looking to crash by 8 to 12% in the latest quarter. Relatedly, consumer confidence plunged to record and near-record lows...and it has little to do with the govt shutdown. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre --------------------------------...
Nov 10, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1234
UBS is reportedly closing down not one but two hedge funds, in a more that raises a lot of questions but also some very uncomfortable parallels to 2007. One of those funds is exposed to First Brands, so understandable. The other...isn't. And that raises the prospect of the R-word; in this case, that does not stand for recession, rather its uglier monetary twin. Bloomberg UBS Winds Down O’Connor Funds in Sign of First Brands Strain https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/ubs-to-wind-do...
Nov 08, 2025•29 min•Ep. 1233
The most October job cuts in over twenty years. More than October 2008, if you’re keeping score. While that doesn’t mean this is a repeat of 2008, can we all finally admit this is a really serious situation? And as the flat Beveridge curve emerges more clearly, the rising unemployment it represents is also causing collateral damage, pun intended. The New York Fed said yesterday auto, credit card and student loan delinquencies hit levels, well you’ll have to see. Eurodollar University's Money &am...
Nov 07, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1232
The dollar is accelerating and not in the direction most people were anticipating, to the point it has rattled the entire cryptocurrency space. That’s why cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin just got hit with a major selloff this week as the dollar debasement theme which had driven their latest surge comes up completely empty. More important than that, however, the dollar is accelerating higher which signals quite a lot all its own. But what? You can see how this gets confusing with all this unnatural...
Nov 06, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1231
Not only is retail giant Target not committing to the big seasonal hiring it always does, the company is actually laying off nearly 2000 of its corporate staff in its biggest management and job shakeup in years. Target is merely the latest “one-off” big name to announce job cuts. No wonder consumer confidence just took another huge hit and that was from the one survey that has held up the best this year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis What is a Eurodollar University membershi...
Nov 05, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1230
The cash squeeze in wholesale money markets that we’ve been following got a whole more exciting on Friday, and now we have the full set of numbers on it. Interest rates soared the most since 2020 further proving the Federal Reserve’s program which is supposed to keep this from happening doesn’t keep it from happening. Imagine my shock. We also know that there were plenty of spare reserves available, too. And with more borrowing from the Fed again this morning so far, we have to consider the ques...
Nov 04, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1229
The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they’re likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there’s more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there’s also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That...
Nov 03, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1228
New home sales in China collapsed by 42% in October when compared to last October, representing more than just another setback for the beleaguered Chinese real estate market, the world’s largest asset class. This is a major problem for Chinese banks, not that they were expecting different. So, we see interest rates are back to moving lower, setting multi-month lows with the latest short-lived stretch of optimism based on Chinese tech stocks being burst yet again by the reality stocks are not rea...
Nov 02, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1227
Nov 01, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1226
The reason why Fed Chair Jay Powell didn’t want to commit to a December rate cut is simple. A number of voting members at the FOMC are not convinced the weak labor market is actually all that weak. Sure, the numbers don’t look good, but they’re wonder if it is real. Well, Chipotle and Kraft-Heinz would like to answer them with a pair of serious warnings about what they’re seeing from consumers. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------...
Oct 31, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1225
FOMC will cut rates today but what will officials say, or do, about the growing repo mess? Find out as we react to the Fed's decisions and Powell's press statements. Eurodollar University’s Money and Macro Analysis
Oct 30, 2025•28 min•Ep. 1224
Amazon announced today it will be cutting 14,000 corporate jobs, though leaker reports say the real number will be roughly 30,000 over time. The company itself says it needs to be more nimble to leverage AI technology when the timing and the target instead shows macroeconomic headwinds are behind the move. There is a reason why consumers believe the US economy is in recession right now. While layoffs like Amazon’s remain relatively scarce, unemployment is piling up all over the place and so does...
Oct 29, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1223
Another day, another significant borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s repo facility. This has become a regular occurrence and concurrent with a rise in money market rates due to the cash squeeze I told you about yesterday, there’s a lot of similarities to 2019 and it’s got the Fed on track to not just cut rates this week also possibly terminate the balance sheet runoff – even if Steve doesn’t quite agree. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ----------------------------------------...
Oct 28, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1222
The ongoing cash squeeze in money markets is very likely to bring an end to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet runoff, known as QT. When the FOMC meets this coming week, officials are almost certainly going to cut rates given the perilous situation in labor. But with financial firms still using the Fed’s repo facility and especially as benchmark money rates stay elevated, the second item on the list of decisions is going to be ending QT. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a w...
Oct 27, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1221
The dollar is making another big move higher to the point it is causing governments and central banks around the world to respond and even intervene to keep their own currencies from crashing against it. Fears over the global economic downturn are driving monetary tightness and demand for safety at the expense of those at the forefront of the broad decline. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Oct 26, 2025•18 min•Ep. 1220
We have a couple more names to add to our fast-growing list of shadow banking casualties. And, yes, collateral is once again the common theme. One of them is of course in subprime auto financing, but that’s just another canary in the credit coalmine. The other has been accused of fabricating half a billion of collateral invoices. Half a billion. Fake collateral. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Oct 24, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1219
After a truly epic run, precious metals are now getting pounded. Both gold and silver are down the past few days for a couple of reasons, not that this is a surprise. In fact, I told you just six days ago this was the most likely short run path for the metals. So, what’s driving the selloff and does it change the long run outlook for either? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Oct 23, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1218
There was action yet again at the Fed’s repo window today. A few more billion borrowed. But that’s now the fourth time over the last five trading days. These are more signs of tightening monetary conditions and if this does continue it will lead to the next QE from the Fed. The word that keeps coming up the past few months is escalation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Oct 22, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1217
Why is copper-to-gold so ugly and thoroughly deflationary? What's happening right now inside China is one key part of it. After a small artificial rebound earlier this - where have we heard that before - Chinese bank lending has fallen even more sharply this summer adding yet another layer to the tremendous deceleration we keep seeing across China this summer. Retail sales fell yet again and investment is crashing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis In a world where markets swing...
Oct 21, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1216
Even I am surprised at how quickly this has escalated. We got a big-time warning from the oil market earlier in the week. Whenever we see these things show up, usually there’s a little back and forth, in and out, the thing starts out as a little blip and stays that way for awhile. Then, maybe, you get a bigger move much later on. Not this time. The oil curve blew way past all of that in just a few days. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ------------------------------------------...
Oct 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1215
Two US regional banks rocked the markets with more potential loan losses tied to private credit and shadow banks. But it is NOT really about them or the scale of those defaults; they are relatively tiny. It's what continues to be uncovered, the common COLLATERAL thread in every single one so far. Combined with a very precarious macroeconomic and monetary background, it's explosive. They are encompassed by the secrets behind the financial and monetary signals we continue to highlight and expose h...
Oct 19, 2025•32 min•Ep. 1214
Silver has gone absolutely vertical, even more than gold has. There is an historic squeeze going on in the silver market, centered in London. It started out driven by gold but the whole thing has been upended by imbalances in supply and the locations from where demand is coming from. How far can silver go? What’s really going on with it? And what should we expect next? Why does the matter for a whole lot more than the precious metals market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---...
Oct 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1213
With one quote, JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon created a mini-firestorm even if in this case, anyway, he was just saying what everyone is thinking. On JPMs earnings call yesterday, Dimon reportedly said, “I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach there are probably more” in relation to the bankruptcies that have popped up recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------...
Oct 16, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1212
A big signal we - and the whole market - have been waiting for was triggered. Better still, there is no ambiguity with this one. The oil curve has flipped for the first time in years in what is a very clear downturn signal. They call it a supply glut when there is no mistaking it's all about demand.
Oct 15, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1211
It’s not just the $2.3 billion that allegedly simply vanished; it’s how and maybe most important of all, why. Second guessing collateral this way does not end well. Especially since this does not appear to be a one-off case of embezzlement and outright theft, rather a relatively large company which made some bad choices pressured into doing so by the economy and given the opportunity by less than ideal protections and security. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis -----------------...
Oct 14, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1210
