Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https:/...
May 19, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1089
It’s still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that’s what we’ve been told and what we all believe. But then why didn’t the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn’t even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong...
May 18, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1088
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record. Eurodollar...
May 16, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1087
Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...
May 15, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1086
Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforce htt...
May 14, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1085
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the ...
May 13, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1084
What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 12, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1083
Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?) https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdf Transcript Chair...
May 11, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1082
Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bank of England MPR ...
May 09, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1081
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them ...
May 08, 2025•23 min•Ep. 1080
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin? https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/ge...
May 07, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1079
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central b...
May 06, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1078
The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 05, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1077
Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
May 04, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1076
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oi...
May 02, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1075
A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-apr...
May 01, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1074
Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025 Atlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Bloomberg Economists Say Trade Wa...
Apr 30, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1073
If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Fed Beige Book April 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/Beige...
Apr 29, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1072
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now soun...
Apr 28, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1071
Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil htt...
Apr 27, 2025•17 min•Ep. 1070
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling. Eurodollar University's Money...
Apr 25, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1069
While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles...
Apr 24, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1068
Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-inter...
Apr 23, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1067
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-histori...
Apr 22, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1066
Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/...
Apr 21, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1065
Anyone looking to buy gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid, using the link below: https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/ Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom. Eurodollar University's Mone...
Apr 20, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1064
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much ...
Apr 18, 2025•21 min•Ep. 1063
Anyone looking to by gold really needs to contact today's video sponsor, our friends over at DefytheGrid , using the link below: https://defythegrid.com/c/eurodollaruniversity/ Make sure you use Coupon Code: eurodollaruniversity A big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly wha...
Apr 17, 2025•20 min•Ep. 1062
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for...
Apr 16, 2025•19 min•Ep. 1061
Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's warning about. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis NBC News Ray Dalio MtP https://www.nb...
Apr 15, 2025•22 min•Ep. 1060
