The European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2011-12 was the final nail in the post-Cold War Globalization coffin; it proved beyond a doubt that a global money/credit/collateral crisis was not a one-time event (the GFC) but a permanent, reoccurring disorder. Now, it maybe back. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way givi...
Aug 16, 2022•30 min•Ep. 275
If you all feel bad about the economy than the economy will be bad and you all are acting weird, so says a recent New York Times opinion column. We discuss whether concrete economic signals / data precede "vibes". Also, is the Federal Reserve the key "vibes" emitter? ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving i...
Aug 15, 2022•24 min•Ep. 274
Today the repurchase agreement is the backstop, the 'lender of last resort', for the global monetary system. Over a century ago it was the Federal Reserve that created the repo market. But funnily enough, since its creation they have largely ignored it. ****SPONSOR**** Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first time by signing up for Masterworks: https://masterworks.art/eur...
Aug 10, 2022•21 min•Ep. 273
On August 9, 2007 the second largest bank in Europe - BNP Paribas - kicked off the Global Financial Crisis (2007-09) and the Silent Depression (2007-2?). It started with three illiquid money market funds. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promo...
Aug 09, 2022•32 min•Ep. 272
The Payroll Report (Establishment Survey) is not wrong but it is inappropriate. Heavy statistical dampening prevents the payroll report from showing economic inflections. Meanwhile, the Household Survey - note statistically constrained - is emitting recession warnings. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving...
Aug 07, 2022•23 min•Ep. 271
Central bankers use ‘Term Premia’ to cover for their grave, fundamental mistakes: A) not understanding bond markets, and B) putting themselves at the center of the monetary system. ****DISCLOSURES**** Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated...
Aug 01, 2022•18 min•Ep. 270
The European Central Bank raised rates in July 2008 because consumer prices were too high; the Global Financial Crisis climax came next. They did it again, in July 2011, for the same reason; the European Sovereign Debt crisis appeared shortly after. Here we go again, a July 2022 rate hike, same reasons; what happens next? ****EP. 269 REFERENCES**** A European Rate Hike Is the Global Economy's Kiss of Death: https://bit.ly/3S7hCcu RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Colum...
Jul 31, 2022•29 min•Ep. 269
James Bullard, St. Louis Fed chief, says the yield curve is twisted by the inflation surge, and may not be a recession message. Indeed, markets are twisting it because they have confidence the central bank will get control of consumer prices. ----EP. 268 REFERENCES---- Derby’s Take: Fed’s Bullard Says Yield-Curve Signal Might Not Be So Ominous: https://on.wsj.com/3PNKFAc RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTub...
Jul 30, 2022•25 min•Ep. 268
On May 20, 1982 the Fed held an emergency conference call for which transcripts are missing (on purpose? by accident?) to solve the "Drysdale Problem". They 'solved' it by focusing on the trees and ignoring the forest. ----EP. 267 REFERENCES---- Since When Does the Fed Funds Rate Have Anything To Do With Anything?: https://bit.ly/3ougulL RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: h...
Jul 25, 2022•26 min•Ep. 267
What if Japan's bond and currency markets aren't really about Japan at all? ----EP. 266 REFERENCES---- Global Euro$ Confirmation: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza G...
Jul 24, 2022•23 min•Ep. 266
The US Treasury Department's Treasury International Capital report for the wild month of May 2022 goes a long way to describing our current economic and monetary predicament. ----EP. 265 REFERENCES---- When Global Banks Won't TIC: http://www.marketsinsiderpro.com/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.l...
Jul 23, 2022•23 min•Ep. 265
On December 1, 2021 the Eurodollar Futures yield curve inverted by a single basis point, which set off recession warning sirens, claxons and clucking at Eurodollar University. Now? The curve is 120 basis points inverted - a warning that something more than 'just a recession' is plausible (possible? probable?!!!!!!). ----SPONSOR---- Purchase shares in great masterpieces from artists like Pablo Picasso, Banksy, Andy Warhol, and more. Skip the waitlist and invest in blue-chip art for the very first...
Jul 20, 2022•16 min•Ep. 264
The US Treasury yield curve continues to spread and has reached the 52-week bill. The Fed is being told by the market it will be CUTTING rates, soon. ----EP. 263 REFERENCES---- RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit...
Jul 18, 2022•18 min•Ep. 263
Foreign institutions have been merrily losing money on US Treasury holdings for years, buying high and selling low - are they insane? No, their investment behavior reveals that these bonds are used for managing risk, global systemic risk. ----EP. 262 REFERENCES---- The Rest of the World's Dollar-Weighted Return on U.S. Treasurys: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30089 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https...
Jul 17, 2022•16 min•Ep. 262
The Economist recounts how the pandemic led to a goods-consumption-boom and whether post-pandemic economics means normalization, or a services boom or a recession. ----EP. 261 REFERENCES---- Could a shift from goods to services ease inflation?: https://econ.st/3OYNOwQ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://b...
Jul 11, 2022•17 min•Ep. 261
The Economist admits to, warns of and draws attention to Britain's 15-year economic depression, labeling it a "slow-burning crisis", "long-standing", "stagnation nation" and "a chronic disease". There are many devastating socioeconomic, geopolitical consequences. It's not just Britain, it's the world. ----EP. 260 REFERENCES---- Low economic growth is a slow-burning crisis for Britain: https://econ.st/3nObojJ Britain’s productivity problem is long-standing and getting worse: https://econ.st/3NVpv...
Jul 10, 2022•31 min•Ep. 260
The US labor market offers both optimistic and pessimistic data points regarding the economic outlook. Does the value of the US dollar break the tie? How do sovereign bond yields in Europe fit into the picture? ----EP. 259 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN...
Jul 09, 2022•24 min•Ep. 259
Steven Van Metre and Jeff Snider have partnered together to bring financial information, investment advice and monetary education to the public. ----EP. 258 REFERENCES---- Steve Van Metre: http://www.portfolioshield.net/ RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Tun...
Jul 08, 2022•27 min•Ep. 258
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is forecasting the median result of its model predicts negative output growth in 2022 and 2023. ----EP. 257 REFERENCES---- Sorry Chairman Powell, Even FRBNY Now Has To Forecast Serious and Seriously Rising Recession Risk: https://bit.ly/39Syy5p The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2022: https://nyfed.org/3OmvQUP Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -...
Jun 30, 2022•17 min•Ep. 257
A comprehensive report by the Federal Reserve - the Financial Accounts of the US - reveals that there has been no material change in rate of money creation. Not in the US (on par with an incrementally increasing but still PATHETIC 2007-21 trend), not in the rest of the world (equal to 2007-21 garbage rates). ----EP. 256 REFERENCES---- The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of The Same: https://bit.ly/3QOKllW Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Market...
Jun 29, 2022•20 min•Ep. 256
Japanese and German trade data suggest the world is suffering through a price illusion: trade value is up because prices are up but actual trade by volume / trade by weight is falling (at least in Germany and Japan). Also, commodity prices suggest global slowdown/recession is approaching. ----EP. 255 REFERENCES---- Everything Hitting The Global (eurodollar) Wall: https://bit.ly/3QPvlE3 Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times ...
Jun 28, 2022•14 min•Ep. 255
The latest purchasing manager surveys (services, manufacturing, composite) and manufacturing index (Kansas City Fed) suggest the United States is heading towards a recession, soon (maybe already?). ----EP. 254 REFERENCES---- Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: htt...
Jun 27, 2022•17 min•Ep. 254
How does a former bank trader with billions of euros in assets react to an impending recession? Is the inflection in bond yields (back down) and prices (back up) starting right now? Did the European Central Bank just warn of a re-run of the 2011-12 European Sovereign Debt Crisis? ----EP. 253 REFERENCES---- Alfonso Peccatiello's Substack: https://TheMacroCompass.substack.com/ Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Time To Buy Bonds?: https://bit.ly/3QNP7zP Jeff's Twitter: htt...
Jun 25, 2022•1 hr•Ep. 253
Jeff Snider explains how the global currency and monetary systems actually work, the origins of the Eurodollar system, Triffin’s Paradox and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System, the stampede towards prime collateral at all costs, the importance of sentiment and why the main role of central banks is theatrical, how vast swathes of the real economy have been deprived of credit since 2008, and a possible solution: creation and intermediation of money should be done by separate institutions. -...
Jun 24, 2022•1 hr 30 min•Ep. 252
One day prior to the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate by a *bananas* big 75-basis point the Eurodollar Futures market moved its yield curve inversion into the next four quarters. As fast as the Fed is hiking, the market is betting it will 'imminently-ish' be cutting. Market contempt! ----EP. 251 REFERENCES---- More Data And Markets To The Idea Something (big) Changed A Couple Months Ago: https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/06/14/more-data-and-markets-to-the-idea-something-big-changed-a-coup...
Jun 19, 2022•23 min•Ep. 251
The pinnacle of investigative, introspective financial journalism assembled in front of the Federal Reserve chairman on June 15, 2022 and asked him... questions? Hardly. Weak sauce. In this episode Jeff Snider responds as a Fed chairman SHOULD respond - honestly. ----EP. 250 REFERENCES---- Transcript of Press Questions at Fed Conference June 15, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220615.pdf Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essa...
Jun 18, 2022•40 min•Ep. 250
Jeff Snider reacts live to Jay Powell's June 15, 2022 opening statement to assembled members of the press regarding the Federal Reserve's 75-basis point rate hike to the Federal Funds target range: the overarching message, overall economic activity, inflation, labor, and the 3/4-point move. ----EP. 249 REFERENCES---- Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference June 15, 2022: https://bit.ly/3bbk40N Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a...
Jun 17, 2022•29 min•Ep. 249
The Crash of 1907 'convinced' Washington DC that a central bank was needed. Or, perhaps more likely, the Crash of 1907 was used as an excuse for a national central bank. ----EP. 248 REFERENCES---- The Premium For Cash Is Presently Enormous: https://bit.ly/3xr0G7l Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2 RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7 Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf -------THE EPISODES------- YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Appl...
Jun 15, 2022•22 min•Ep. 248
We are told that Paul Volcker led the Federal Reserve into the breech and bravely and knowingly raised short-term interest rates so as to bring about a recession and extinguish the 1970s Great Inflation. But according to Fed transcripts Volcker & Co. fell ass-backwards into recession. ----EP. 247 REFERENCES---- Monetary Policy Is All Talk All the Time, and Always Has Been: https://bit.ly/3xNg9A1 The Myth of Paul Volcker and the Powerful Fed [Eurodollar University, Ep. 221]: https://youtu.be/...
Jun 14, 2022•27 min•Ep. 247
US consumer prices rose 8.6% year-over-year for the month of May 2022, says the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists, financial media and central banks implicitly conflate this price expansion with money expansion (inflation) and economic expansion (booming) - that's a mistake. ----EP. 246 REFERENCES---- CPIs Aren't the Economy, and They're Not Inflation: https://bit.ly/3MMn8NX United States Inflation Rate: https://bit.ly/3MNJ3nY No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. J...
Jun 13, 2022•33 min•Ep. 246
