PART 01 : Inflation is a broad, sustained monetary phenomenon. Price deviations in a narrow set of economic sectors, though they last months, are just that: price deviations. Today's high CPI-readings will in all likelihood subsumed by the global monetary disorder, like in 2008 and 2011. PART 02 : A review of July's HUGE increase in consumer prices. We conclude these price surges are due to supply problems, base comparison effects and mostly Uncle Sam stimmy checks. None of which are permanent c...
Aug 16, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 95
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actually, Bretton Woods died a decade (or more!) earlier; it's just that we only noticed in 1971. PART 02: The IMF will 'print' $650 billion -- BILLION! -- in SDR-money to help with global liquidity. BIG numbers! BIG Deal! But we've heard this before from the IMF, like in 2009, their last BIGGEST EVER allocation, which was as e...
Aug 08, 2021•1 hr 4 min•Ep. 94
PART 01: Gold Slams! Rapid, huge sales in early morning hours are warnings about a malfunction deep within the plumbing of global capital flows. They're also multi-week, precipitous price declines. We review the last few months of gold price to triangulate if the pipes are rattling warnings. PART 02: Foreigners were heavily selling US Treasuries in May 2021. Is this a GEOPOLITICAL plot? Is America's BANKRUPTCY imminent?!? Almost certainly not. We review the LONG HISTORY of foreigners selling US ...
Aug 02, 2021•1 hr 29 min•Ep. 93
FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering big banks, big business and Wall Street with easy money, which reached neither the real economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former. ----SEE EPISODE 92----- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR EPISODE 92---- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2...
Jul 26, 2021•1 hr 36 min•Ep. 92
Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020. ----SEE EPISODE #91---- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ----HEAR EPISODE #91--- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http...
Jul 25, 2021•30 min•Ep. 91
Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwise, like a recent NY Times article, your worth may be off by a factor of 20!!!! --------EP. 90 REFERENCES-------- Measuring Worth: https://bit.ly/36TfZZD Measuring Worth Twitter: https://bit.ly/3BuZotf Measuring Worth Blog: https://bit.ly/3rqyz4R NY Times Tulsa Article: https://nyti.ms/3eKKDIR National Ge...
Jul 22, 2021•58 min•Ep. 90
PART 01: Jay Powell has confirmed a surging Fed program (RRP) is partly the result of safe-asset demand. But he plays it off as a monetary technicality, mere arcana. Nope! Safe-asset scarcity is step one along a well-trod path towards a malfunctioning economy. Here's what happens next. PART 02: The People's Bank of China lowers its bank Required Reserve Ratio to get money into a slowing economy. A lowered RRR means that there aren't enough (euro)dollars flowing into China. Why? Because there are...
Jul 19, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 89
PART 01: When the US Treasury yield curve inverts it is a warning that recession is on the horizon. What about when the Eurodollar Futures yield curve rolls over on its back? Not good news either. Would you believe that there's a kink in the curve now? Would you believe it's not great news? PART 02: The yields on German sovereign bonds began to tumble in May - now we know why. German Factory Orders and Industrial Production delivered lousy results that month. Germany is an export power so these ...
Jul 12, 2021•1 hr 11 min•Ep. 88
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on the the 'big news' about the 'hawkish' new Fed forecast implying economic recovery championed by the business press while at the same time an underlying liquidity reading (RRP) glows orange. A warning. And a reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Strolling with You " by John Runefelt at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT-...
Jul 02, 2021•22 min•Ep. 87
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on yet another central bank study concluding that there are TANGIBLE problems with quantitative easing and what benefits can be observed are INTANGIBLE. Sweden's Riksbank observes collateral shortages. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Steak Frites " by Dylan Sitts at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- Becau...
Jun 30, 2021•21 min•Ep. 86
Non-economist, monetary iconoclast Jeff Snider's commentary on why inflation is unwelcome directly and welcome indirectly. Also, economic depression and hopelessness have struck the United States many times. A review of contemporary accounts of despair and hope about the future from the 19th and 20th centuries. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Jeff Snider of Alhambra Investments. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Nocturnal Jam " by Sarah, the...
Jun 28, 2021•21 min•Ep. 85
PART 01: After the Federal Reserve raised the return on one of its bank programs, a record $756 billion flowed into the central bank’s reverse repo facility. Jerome Powel said, "We're not concerned." He should be. Like the Fed should've been in 2017 when something similar happened. A warning. Again. PART 02: How is it possible 14 years of data shows the Federal Reserve FLAILING ABOUT trying to raise or lower bond yields with MASSIVE purchases of securities via quantitative easing? Because they w...
Jun 23, 2021•1 hr 6 min•Ep. 84
Daniel Want, the early-21st century Australian philosopher and Chief Investment Officer of Prerequisite Capital, discusses: absence of knowledge at educational institutions, transitory inflation, first principles, disconnected markets, justice as prerequisite and the unified magnitude of the crisis. --------REFERENCES-------- Prerequisite Capital: https://bit.ly/3gjMvd7 Training Videos: https://bit.ly/3czM4sM Daniel LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3gt3Rmq Daniel Twitter: https://bit.ly/3gsH0r3 Daniel G...
Jun 18, 2021•1 hr 25 min•Ep. 83
PART 01: What should a central bank be? What does one do? Is what the Fed does 'central banking'? What did Ben Bernanke promise in 2002 that the Fed would never do again -- learning the lesson of the 1930s -- and how did he break his promise less than 5 years later? PART 02: In March 2020 long-term US Treasury yields shot higher - why? Aren't these safe assets? Did the 'Treasury market break'? No. Yields shot higher due to illiquidity. And liquidity is JOB #1 of a central bank. So... here's look...
Jun 16, 2021•54 min•Ep. 82
PART 01: A new measure of the monetary order will be unveiled at the end of this two-part episode. But first, a discussion of uncertainty, incomplete pictures, relativity, perspective and the limits of human knowledge. Also, bank reserves and repurchase agreements. PART 02: Within the US Triparty Repo environment, utilizing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, we observe that three dollar shortages between 2010-20 appeared as a stagnation and/or contraction in observations per repurch...
Jun 07, 2021•46 min•Ep. 81
Historian and political economist Daniel Oliver's commentary on why the quantity of currency is less important than the quality of the collateral backing it. In the USA the quality of the Federal Reserve's assets suggests two options remain: searing hyperinflation or wrenching austerity. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- Daniel Oliver of Myrmikan Capital. Read by Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Intro/outro is " Glitterati " by Fox Morrow at Epidemic Sound . ----------...
Jun 04, 2021•21 min•Ep. 80
PART 01: All of a sudden the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program has exploded higher to half-a-trillion dollars. Why? The mainstream, orthodox narrative is that 'this is fine'; a response to 'too many bank reserves'. What does it really mean? Collateral scarcity. Systemic fragility. A warning. PART 02: Chile, one of the 20th-century's rare economic success stories - from a low level of development to just short of advanced - held an election to rewrite its constitution. The winners? Anti-capi...
Jun 02, 2021•1 hr 8 min•Ep. 79
PART 01: On May 26, 2021 the Earth will witness a Super Flower Blood Moon - a sure sign of the apocalypse (again). It is no wonder then that, with the end upon us all, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to confess in their recent meeting minutes that bank reserves are not money. PART 02: There may be no better view into the incomprehensibly complex global monetary order than the Treasury International Capital report. We review the March TIC report and find a number of positive, good reflat...
May 31, 2021•1 hr 16 min•Ep. 78
"Inflation" is a generalized, sustained increase in consumer prices. A spike in consumer prices is just that - a transitory spike. Watch as Jeff gives four reasons and examples (2000, 2008, 2021 bond yields and auctions) why the probabilities favor a rise in CPI, not "inflation". ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3n...
May 24, 2021•38 min•Ep. 77
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on two concepts of international relations: a liberal international order and a rules-based system. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " South Is That Way " by Lofive featuring Divty at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- The Myth of a Rules-Based World: https://bit.ly/3ugx2yP ----------WHERE---------...
May 21, 2021•12 min•Ep. 76
PART 01: In the 1930s the economic devastation was so bad that only radical solutions remained. But then, like now in our Silent Depression, radicalism does not mean success necessarily. The key is to first understand why the devastation in the first place. Otherwise? Dictators. PART 02: Starting in October 2019 the Federal Reserve began to buy US Treasury Bills, EXCLUSIVELY. Starting in March 2020 the Fed stopped buy UST Bills, EXPLICITLY. What happened in between? Only the second Global Financ...
May 20, 2021•1 hr 3 min•Ep. 75
Geopolitical analyst Allison Fedirka explains what made some countries socioeconomic success stories, where the next emerging market stars may be, and whether a decentralized international balance is in our future. ---------SEE IT----------- Geopolitical Futures: https://bit.ly/3hv7Px0 LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/3eN7qEi Twitter: https://twitter.com/AFedirka Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: ...
May 17, 2021•1 hr 23 min•Ep. 74
Might the economy take off? According to a Wall Street Journal opinion column, solid wage growth and unfilled openings point to much less labor market slack than headline unemployment data. Jeff Snider reacts live. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z C...
May 14, 2021•18 min•Ep. 73
From 2009-12 Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would stoke inflation, that the dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress and that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. Now he's back. "Number one rule of Wall Street: nobody - I don't care if you're Warren Buffett or Jimmy Buffett - nobody knows if the stock's going to go up, down, sideways, or in [#]ucking circles; least of all stockbrokers. It's all a Fugazzi. You know what a Fugazzi is?" - Matthew McConau...
May 12, 2021•32 min•Ep. 72
Professor Sissoko focuses attention on the fact that the post-2008 financial system has changed dramatically but that technocrats have not tackled what the changes mean. Sissoko discusses the path to the 2008 and 2020 shocks and proposes we turn the clock back to a wiser time. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoV...
May 10, 2021•54 min•Ep. 71
Historian and geopolitical strategist George Friedman's commentary on the (un)likelihood of war with China and Russia. A reading, by Emil Kalinowski. ----------WHO---------- George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures . Read by Emil Kalinowski . Art by David Parkins . Intro/outro is " Sweet Violet " by Yi Nantiro at Epidemic Sound . ----------WHAT---------- The Unlikelihood of a War With China and Russia: https://bit.ly/2Rg3LWn The most dangerous place on Earth: https://econ.st/3nHHcG5 Putin’s next ...
May 07, 2021•15 min•Ep. 70
The Economist magazine states that "the covid-19 crisis is highlighting the limits of unemployment-insurance figures" and therefore "jobless-claims data give little insight into America’s economy". Jeff Snider reacts Live! to the article and offers his own thoughts. ---------SEE IT----------- Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: ...
May 05, 2021•18 min•Ep. 69
PART 01: The rise and fall of an arbitrage trade by hedge funds known as the Treasury cash-futures basis trade. That was the focus of an excellent research paper by two government researchers. But there's just one problem. They don't ask what caused the rise of the basis trade in the first place. PART 02: Open interest in US Treasury Long Bond futures have crossed the 800,000-line only a few times in the past quarter-century. Nothing ever good happened in markets or the world economy when that h...
May 03, 2021•1 hr 12 min•Ep. 68
PART 01: Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different? PART 02: When public debt rises to around 90% of GDP economic growth falls by 1% each year. A review of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's study and a look at global debt levels in 2008, 2011 and...
Apr 26, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 67
In 2014 the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that despite a MASSIVE increase in money the expected 4 to 6% inflation did not materialize. The researchers suggest it was a "liquidity trap". Yes, and no. But mostly no. ---------SEE IT----------- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL Art: https://davidparkins.com/ ---------HEAR IT---------- Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn App...
Apr 22, 2021•21 min•Ep. 66
